Despite being severely burned on the sports spread betting the season before last, I've decided to give it another shot.
I've bought Portsmouth's points at 54 with Sporting Index.
Last year Pompey managed the same total of 54 points, however most people will agree that they switched off with around 4 or 5 games to go as they all looked towards the FA Cup Final.
Jermaine Defoe scored a lot of goals after signing from Spurs in January, and with the addition of Peter Crouch to partner him this year, I expect him to go close as top scorer in the prem. One of Pompey's main failings last year was that they all too often relied on an ageing Kanu to get them the goals. In Defoe and Crouch they now have a top striking partnership, therefore I would hope they will be a lot more clinical in front of goal. In addition I was really impressed with Diarra towards the end of last season, and as he also only signed in January they will benefit from having him from the off this year.
Looking at the teams around them, I think Pompey could do better than Blackburn, Villa and Everton this year. Blackburn have a new manager and there is already talk of unrest, Villa have only really signed Sidwell, but it is likely they will lose Barry, and Everton have yet to sign anybody despite letting 3 or 4 squad players leave.
On the downside, Tottenham will not be as poor as last season and Man City have also made a couple of good signings, therefore I expect Pompey to be battling with these 2 for fifth spot. Also the loss of Muntari to Inter is blow, however I would hope Harry as earmarked a replacement signing before the close of the transfer window.
Title Contenders Man United - All the summer discussion has been whether Ronaldo leaves Old Trafford, but for the time being he remains. He misses the start of the season with an ankle injury though. They are continually linked with Berbatov and should he join that would a very strong addition given even more options in the attacking third. Looks like more of the same, with stability very much the key word.
Chelsea - All change at the bridge with Big Phil coming in along with playmaker Deco and full back Bosingwa. Doubts remain over the long term future of Lampard and the sulky Drogba, if either of those leave that would leave a large gap in the spine of their team. Quite surprised they removed Grant who did a superb job in difficult circumstances.
Liverpool - They have mainly been linked with Barry and Keane and Keane has finally signed on the dotted line. He will be a fantastic addition to play alongside Torres. I am quite sure that Liverpool can mount a title challenge but the biggest question mark is over Rafa's rotation policy not the players, resting star players is something he has not excelled at in the past.
Arsenal - They are being written off again in many quarters with the sale of regular starters Hleb and Flamini and decent squad players Silva and Lehman but Wenger knows the depth of talent rising through the ranks at the Emirates and they should not be underestimated.
Tottenham - If any team can break into the Top 4 it is enigmatic Tottenham. There have been wholesale squad changes and they may not be finished if Berbatov and Malbranque leave. Playmaker Modric could prove to be the overseas signing of the summer but the key to Tottenham is keeping the fragile centre half pairing of Woodgate and King fit. Ramos certainly strikes as a no nonsense type of manager who knows exactly what is required to succeed.
Blackburn - Top of my value list, rookie manager Ince is plunged in at the deep end and has plenty to prove. Now they have lost Bentley and with Santa Cruz also looking restless then two of their best attacking weapons may be absent at the start of this season. In his first transfer moves Ince has brought in ageing Robbie Fowler, sold Brad Friedel to Villa and brought in Paul Robinson from Tottenham. I can't see the merit of any of those dealings.
Of the other teams Bolton and Wigan both have merits and look sure to be involved at the wrong end of the table at some stage.
One other bet which looks good value is Portsmouth to win their group. They have been matched up with Blackburn/Newcastle/W Ham by several books. In my sheets they are superior to these rivals. As already mentioned Blackburn look set for a slide, Newcastle are always hideously overrated and West Ham look to be treading water. The signing of Crouch in particular looks top draw and with a great home record and a solid defensive base, the south coast team should be a force this season. Prices range from 2.5-2.63.
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