A warm welcome to Sunday Times readers
joining the site for the first time - welcome! The site is updated generally
around lunchtime everyday with latest market comments and any buys or sells I've
made. This is the same as buying 3,000
shares. I had to pay two points more than the cash price because spread firms
charge a bigger spread - that's how they make their money. Of course the upside
is no broker commission or stamp duty to pay.
What are the words you don't want to hear when you visit the dentist? Hmm, how about
'root canal', 'fracture', 'serious' 'big hole'. Well, I got all those words said
to me this morning... bugger it! I expect some long prices. I win a
tenner for every sp point above 52 once all the winning sps are added together.
A good bet I think.
Don't worry I'm in a better mood today,
come in now and relax! An early update today as me and Mrs F are taking the rest
of the day off! We're going into London town for lunch followed by some
shopping!
I'm
kicking off the week with two trades! The first is a buy - and that's
10,000 shares in Six Group (SIXH)
at 69.7p. Target 90p,
Stop Loss 62p. The selling space is about 5500 sq ft
of airy, high-ceilinged shed space . The new shelf racking around the perimeter
walls is about 10 ft high and - as with the centre fitments - easily
configurable The staffing level seemed sparse, but
staff seemed polite and helpful, although, I thought, rather low grade. Bright,
newly-refitted stores, if continuing to be stocked as invitingly as I saw on
Friday, should be good for an uplift in sales of, at the very least, 30%. The transfer of units from the High
Street into retail parks should again result in higher sales - probably towards
100%! The costs of running such units - in terms of rent, rates, and staffing -
per sq ft should probably fall. Elsewhere pretty quiet but I'm very
pleased with the performance of the portfolio and in particular
Fenner, Sondex,
Serco and Dignity are
all holding onto some good gains recently - they are all likely to break out
further. But by the end of the year he is a bit
more pessimistic.
I always ask 'What is your rate per kw/h'
and they refuse to answer! Also just try getting kw/h rates off energy
suppliers' websites, next to impossible. They prefer to use their 'calculators'
which amazingly put them on top!
Oh, what a match. Even Mrs F got
interested towards the end. And I was robbed of £60 on my spread bet because of
that ridiculous disallowed goal. Oh well, that's the way it goes. We normally see a lot of business on
Tim anyway and the punters seem to have forgiven him for his lapse at Queens.
However, you can get a far better price
on the US Open champ than the reigning Wimbledon champ. At the end of the day,
the Nebraskan is a bit one-dimensional in his tennis - although it's a pretty
good dimension! It should see him through to the semis without too much fuss.
So after the internet problems of yesterday I decided
to sod it and get a new computer for the cafe. Mrs F then said she fancied a
laptop for herself. Well, as she does all the complicated accounts and
VAT for the cafe, fair enough. So now I've bought a laptop and a computer! I
really hope I'll have broadband at the cafe by next week! Buying a computer online is a nightmare - it all starts
off as an 'great offer' for £395... then you find you have to 'add' a monitor,
then there's all kinds of other stuff you have to add on and it then comes to
nearer £700! Do we need 'three years next day repairs' or 'one year
Euro collect and return repairs'. How the bleeding hell should I know! Do you
want an upgrade from 40 megabit wattage htz bumbits to 80 htz hula hoops for
£80? Well, buggered if I know! These websites that sell
computers should really ask why you need the machine, how much you're going to
use it and then tell you what kind of memory and stuff you need. Anyway.. I'm
on broadband at home which is where I am staying put!
A fantastic couple of days for the portfolio with
star awards to: FENNER!
Burst through the 110 barrier and looks good for 120 quickly (well quickly for
Fenner).. I'm up more than 30% BURREN!
Up and over 300 and looking very strong and again good for more.. up more
than 25% SONDEX!!
Climbed way higher yesterday and looks set to tackle 200p. Up 20% SERCO!
- busted through 210p and now on the way to 220p - up nearly 20% DIGNITY!
Going up with dignity and looks set to clear 272.. up nearly 10% BROWN
AND JACKSON! At last
the market makers are pushing it up. If I don't get 20% out of this then I
promise to watch Dale Winton's lottery show even though it could kill me. The
BT long I think will
come off with a move over 200p being a very bullish sign.
Telecom Plus
is forming its bottom and I expect a rise soon - part of the recent fall was
due to it going ex dividend. A reader has kindly brought to my attention a share called
600 Group - looks very promising but I'm going to be a coward and wait until
results are published tomorrow before thinking about buying in. It's amazing how much of a feel-good factor the England
wins have proved. Takings at the cafe have soared by 20% so far this week so I
am not wholly being patriotic when I say 'Come on Ingerland!' I think there may be a few goals tonight so I've bought
the number of goals for £60 a goal at 2.5 goals with Sporting. Ie, if there's
four goals I win £100 - if there's none I lose £150.
So a short and late update today! This
may come as a relief as I've been rambling wildly lately! The reason is I
decided to go to the cafe today and then I thought I'd upgrade to broadband
there. Due to problems I can't even mention
without seeing red we not only can't upgrade to broadband there but we lost
narrowband too....
I'm in the middle of writing a chapter
for my book on the dangers of internet bulletin boards. In particular, the gangs
that try and push up the price of tiny little AIM penny shares by putting out
false information and getting unwary new investors to buy them.
Have you ever been taken in by this and
lost money? Or have you been part of a ramping gang and would like to spill me
the secrets of how you did it and how much you made? All mails received treated
in the strictest of confidence.
Yawn!
Stagnant is the only word I can think of
to describe the current market. I suspect many investors are sitting on their
hands or are in some cash. I'm finding it difficult to find stock to buy - a lot
of shares seem about right or a little overvalued.
Telecom
Plus goes ex-dividend for 5.5p
tomorrow (Wednesday) so the shares should start the day down by that amount.
I'll get a cheque for over £1,000 as I
hold nearly 20,000 shares outside my ISA because of share options I exercised.
Those of you looking at opening a spread
bet account.. I remind you of the fantastic deal with
Well done England! What a great performance and we have
a real chance of winning!
I've been doing some research over the
weekend for my book - the chapter I'm working on is about how to read company
statements.
One new share buy today - that's in Helphire Group (HHR).
I've got very little cash left now and as I didn't want to sell anything, I
bought the shares using a spread bet long, at 229
for £30 a point.
I've been watching the shares since the company reported excellent result
on the 14th of June waiting for the right time to get in - which I think is
around now.
It's a half point down on the day but I don't think the downside is any
more than 5 points from here - and if it did dip a bit it'll soon be up again.
Profits are soaring higher and the company's statement was very bullish -
the chart looks very powerful and I'm setting an initial target of
270 with a stop loss of 210.
Those of you who haven't got one should consider opening a spread bet
account - it's the only real way to short when the market turns down but also
gives you the chance to buy shares (like I did today) when you have little cash
left and don't want to sell stock but still want to buy one you fancy.
The portfolio continues to shine with excellent rises in all my recent
buys. With a big bunch of dividends also set to arrive things look good!
Recent winners Serco,
Brown and Jackson, Havelock,
Burren, 600 Group and
Sondex are holding on to recent terrific gains and
in some cases are still going higher.
Star of today is Havelock Europa. Up strongly
again. I thought it was undervalued when I bought in at 95p and I think it's
still undervalued at 110p. I'd be looking to take profits in the 120-125 area.
Investors Chronicle rates 600 Group as good value today - I agree. I think
I was lucky to buy in at just under 70p - I believe they will go up through 80p
and on up to 100p.
My short of Close Group is starting to pay
off and my downside target of 730 is just around the corner.
I was reading in The Sun today (look I also buy a broadsheet - I'm just a
strange mixture of thrash and upmarket!) about a woman who started using E-Bay
two years ago and now makes ten grand a week selling stuff on it.
The money side of it sounds a little far-fetched to me but even so there
are obviously people making decent sums.
Thursday 1st July 2004
What's worse is right after my check up it was like buying a winning
share. 'No problems, Robbie everything looks fine.'
Then suddenly the winning share issued a giant profits warning and I
slumped to despair as at the last moment he looked at my X-Ray.
'Oh no,' he said. 'You've got a giant hole in tooth 6. You might need a
crown, and maybe root canal work. It looks serious' Shall I start work now?'
'Let's leave it to next week,' I said. I need to psyche myself up for
this. Anyway, Hans is a bit of a drama queen. I'll have to lie back and try and
take the pain..... of paying the bugger a fortune for a crown!
Wow! The portfolio continues to soar higher.. Some amazing performances
still from my last seven buys.
In order of buying, rough profit percentages 600 Group + 10%, Brown and
Jackson + 10%, Havelock Europa + 10%, Serco + 10%, Dignity + 7%, Burren + 40%,
Sondex +20%.
Burren Energy in particular has proved a
fantastic buy - I'm personally up £6,000 as I accumulated quite a few and
another £3,000 from my spread bet. At some point I must take profits but it
looks so strong it's got to be held!
600 Group has powered ahead since I bought on
Monday - the 80p level it is now hitting is crucial - if it can get through that
the sky's the limit - not to mention the 8% div!
I was convinced Havelock and
Serco were undervalued and the market is agreeing
with me, with both going nicely. Sondex continues
to soar.
I'm now nearly out of cash and I really don't want to sell any of these
winners just yet so the frequent trader is holding on for the moment.
Of course it's all fine and dandy to celebrate when things are going well
but the market can bite you on the bum when you least expect and if there's any
hint of a downturn those profits are going to be taken.
I took profits on my Big Brother Marco sell
today - with Marco being odds on to leave on Friday (hurrah!!) I decided to bank
the profits and 'Bought back' at 3. As I sold at 17 for £15, my profit is 14
points (minus the 3) times my stake of £15, which gives me my first Big Bro
profit of the series at £210.
Of course if I simply waited for him to go on Friday the profit would have
been a bit more at £255 but I feel this series is throwing up surprises, so for
the sake of an extra £45, it seems worth putting the money in the bank. My £25
on Shell at 20 looks good as she is unlikely to be out of the first 3.
I've placed a spread bet on the racing at Haydock this afternoon and
bought the sps with Sporting Index for a tenner at 52.
That means I am hoping for a couple of outsiders to win. Last year at this
meeting there were some big odds winners and with the ground riding on the soft
side and some funny-looking races.
Wendesday 30th June 2004
Four statements from companies I'm holding -thankfully all positive and
they've helped the share prices too.
Costain says it is performing well, and its
order book is in good shape. It's not been doing a lot recently but the
announcement should give the shares a lift in the next few days. (Amazing isn't
it how shares seem to move up a day or so before good news is released!)
Burren Energy announced a successful drilling
and is motoring - at least one of my oil gambles is paying off!
BT's announcement of broadband price cuts is
helping the price and a 200 plus close today looks bullish.
Sondex has announced directors have sold to
fund institutional demand - a very good sign with the shares up on the news, I
am very bullish on Sondex and expect once it is through 200p to hit 230p.
Elsewhere 600 Group that I bought for 69.7p
on Monday (apologies for calling it 6 group yesterday!) is rising again even
after recent gains and the buying price as I write is 76p.
I can see institutions getting interested in this one, especially with the
whacking great dividend - it goes ex div on August 13th so anyone buying before
then gets the loot.
I get my mitts on some £350,000 at the end of July from my house sale and
I might whack a fair bit of that into 600 Group then, unless the price has gone
up too much.
Havelock Europa looks poised to crack the
100p. Get Group continues is march upwards and I'm
closer to turning a loss into a profit with this one.
I reckon I've been doing some good picking recently. (come on, I'm not
being bigheaded, just a pat on the back and some encouragement from the boss,
me).
My last seven buys have all motored higher in some cases by decent
percentages and there's more to come from all of them. In fact it looks a very
exciting time for the portfolio.
There's a shed load of dividends arriving/about to arrive including over a
grand from Telecom Plus, and around £500 from Get, Sondex, Mice, Havelock, and
Fenner.
My view always is to get dividends to cover costs. But judging by my Sipp
records, dividends also produce a profit on top.
Phew - good to see Marco being nominated. Looks like being a close call on
the eviction but with a bit of luck my sell will prove a winner - I'll pick up a
nice £255 if he gets evicted on Friday. Becki looks like a producers' plant.
Also just to remind you if you are fed up with the performance of your
pension and are experienced at trading shares, take control with a SIPP. I did
all the research when I set mine up and am happy to pass this on to anyone who
wants it, just mail me.
I told the neighbour today we were moving. She said she was sorry to see
us go but there was a happy glint in her eye. What she's thinking is: their
bloody cat is no longer going to crap on my roof, good riddance!
The cat is helping us prepare for the arrival of a baby. Her addiction to
the jelly on the cat food rather than the meat means she is hungry all the time
and is now crying in the middle of the night for more jelly.
So muggins here gets up to feed her. Slightly worryingly Mrs F seems to
remain fast asleep - hmmm, is this a sign of things to come?
Right that's it, off to town for lunch and I'm forgetting about the market for
the rest of the day!Monday 28th June 2004
If you remember I mentioned a reader had alerted me to these early last
week but I was waiting for a look at the results. As happens quite often these
days, results were good but the stock fell a little.
However I do like the look of Six and it seems an excellent medium-term
buy. For my SIPP in particular the huge 8% yield is a big incentive. (It goes ex
div in mid August and pays out mid September).
It looks like a similar chart pattern to my old friend Fenner and I can
see this one moving up a little at a time to the 90p area - with the big
dividend thrown in, it looks a winner!
It's not exactly in the most exciting of business - heavy-duty machinery -
but its markets look on the up and it's just turned from a loss into a profit.
And it wouldn't take much more of a recovery to see the shares up to the 90p
level.
I think it'll need a bit of patience like Fenner
and some days it won't move but over a few weeks I think there's a good chance
of a 25% capital gain plus dividend.
My second trade was to sell Mice, out of
sheer boredom at 68.25 to book a loss of
£329. Life's too short!
Thanks to reader
Geoffrey who has done some interesting research into my current
buy Brown and Jackson. My views are the retailer is
turning things around. Here is his research:
'I went down to Willesden Friday to look at the refitted store there. This
particular branch is in a retail park, the anchor of which is B & Q.
Overhead lighting on gantries is excellent, nicely showing up the
colourful and plentiful merchandise, which is well stacked, visibly priced, and
arranged in clearly focused - but somewhat unrelated - departments.
Obviously, I was unable to check out the quality of their IT programs in
regard to stock control and distribution.
On the face of it, the July AGM should be quite interesting; even more so,
the October(?) interim announcement. I think your short-term target of 80p may
well prove to be too conservative.'
Thanks! Any other research anyone has made into stocks very welcome!
Burren and BT continue
to look like very strong stocks for me - much more to come...
My friend, stock market historian
David Schwartz tells me he reckons the
markets are in for a good time over the next few weeks.
Are you all getting more and more cold sales calls? I'm getting driven mad
by them! I've had one just now. 'Good afternoon sir, how are you'
'What do you want to sell me?' I ask
'If I said you could have new doors and windows for nothing.. how many
would you have, three, four or five?' asks the salesmen reading from the script.
(IE make potential punter say a number rather than ' No, sod off ')
'None at all!' I say.
'Why is that?' he asks.
'Because,' I explain. 'Your question is ridiculous and your script needs
work. You don't get anything for nothing.'
Sadly my reply isn't on his script and even though I tell him I'm moving
and not interested in doors or windows he carries on asking the same question.
He's not as bad as the British Gas salesmen who reckons they are cheaper
than Telecom Plus - I know for a fact BG is around £140 more expensive!
Friday 25th June 2004
Mrs F has phoned from the cafe to say people are drowning their sorrows by
buying full fry-ups this morning.
On Thursday workmen started drilling outside the cafe during our busiest
time - we knew it would hit trade because of the noise factor - a free sandwich
and a cup of tea each bought them off for 2 hours!
A reader has written to me with an interesting query - can any reader
throw any light onto this interesting situation?
The reader says: 'I took out a sell of £13 at 627 points for AWG on the
Sept future. I closed this bet with a £13 buy 2 days later closing at 621.75
points, fully expecting to make about £70.
The spread betting company actually debited my account to the tune of
approx £350. I asked them about this and I was originally told it was to do with
dividends and when I pressed further I was sent this in an email. 'This is due
to a special corporate action on the 18th in AWG'
I'm sure the spread bet firm are absolutely correct in there calculations,
but I would like somebody to explain how what I thought was a straightforward
process has a number of substantial hidden costs.'
If anyone can help the reader and I think others might be interested in
the answer, let me know on e-mail and I'll hopefully have the answer on Monday.
And I need help too! We have a BMW and a BMW radio/CD. Since it was mended
we haven't been able to use the radio because it asks for a 'Code' which we
don't have as we don't have the original books any more. Anyone know how we can
break the 'code' and get the radio working again??!
Right, onto the markets.
Again, a tight trading range again in the FTSE. However I'm glad to report
nearly all my recent buys are having a cracking run and the portfolio has been
coining it in over the last couple of weeks. My recent spell of patience is
paying off.
In fact I'm getting a lot of mails from people who agree with me that for
right now it's better to hold decent shares (profit-making dividend paying
growth stocks) that go up a little every day than the volatile risky one
product-type companies.
The Independent reported today that there are 'whispers' of strong uplift
in sales at Brown And Jackson - shares are already
up 10% from my buy the week before last and it looks like the shares are due for
a massive rise - wish I had some cash left to buy more although I have a decent
amount.
Burren has backed off a bit - not surprising
after its amazing run but I have little doubt there is much more to come and I'm
sitting tight.
Get Group is on the move up at last - I've
held on grimly despite the dip below my stop loss as it still looks a cracking
company - and I expect it to make up ground and I could yet make a profit!
Elsewhere pretty quiet end to the week - two shares at the moment I'm keen
to buy and waiting for the right buying moment, probably next week.
I'm sure many of you will be watching Wimbledon and betting on it - I
spoke to a senior dealer at Sporting Index regarding the betting and here's what
he told me..
"The men's singles is a fairly even contest this year, in that most of the
players are in some reasonable form. From a betting point of view we've seen a
lot of interest on Roddick and housewives fave Tiger Tim.
"What about Roddick? Well, for a lot of people it's a bit of a toss up
between the Number 1 and 2 seeds, Federer and Roddick.
"Elsewhere we've seen a number of shrewd punters backing the 10th seed (Grosjean),
the 14th seed (Fish) and the unseeded Ancic. They all like a fast court and none
of them are in the same quarter as the two favourites. It could get a little
hairy for us if they progress too far.
"As for the women...we've not seen too much action on the out-of-form
Williams sisters, and with neither of the Belgians turning up we've built up an
interesting position on Mauresmo. Personally, my tip for the Ladies would be to
back Hantuchova, a bit of an outsider but certainly worth a look.'
Thursday 24th June 2004
Wendesday 23th June 2004
So I'm sitting in an internet cafe (which happens to be a rival) but they
only charge 60p for half an hour so I'm not too upset.!
The market continues to trade in a tight range confounding I'm sure quite
a few day traders and causing other investors to find it very hard to make
money! Still, I can't exactly complain as the portfolio is going well today.
Burren now looks very exciting as it has
risen firmly over the 300p mark today - this one could jump big time and I'm
glad I bought a large amount of shares when I did in the 240p area.
Very pleasing to see Sondex coming out with a
good forward-looking report today and as I took up all my allocation of new
shares it is very pleasing - I think this one looks as if it will be an unsung
big riser in the markets for this year.
Telecom Plus is down but 5.5p of that is due
to it going ex-dividend. It should bounce strongly off the 280-285 area.
It's party time again! Fenner is up a penny!
I should stop taking the mickey out of this one as it's been a solid growth
stock all year and I'm glad I added more to the shares I'd already bought in the
85p area - a good dividend coming up too.
Serco has also been a strong steady riser and
looks set for at least 225p. Brown and Jackson is
showing signs of climbing - the other market makers are getting impatient with
the one holding it up.
Tuesday 22th June 2004
Monday 21th June 2004
And I know how superficial this will sound but as I point out in the book
there is one sure-fire method of knowing whether to sell a stock you are in or
at least not to buy into it.
All you have to do is look for this word: 'Challenging'! On
researching companies that had fallen recently I discovered how right my method
is... so here's a quick extract from the book as I thought it might interest
some of you:
'For example, in the statement produced by Henlys
on December 12th 2003, the word challenge or challenging was there five times!
The shares went up after the statement but I would have sold - five
challengings more than enough for me. By January the shares tumbled 40% on a
profits warning and by June the company was delisted!
A statement from retailer Jacques Vert in
July 2003 contained two challengings, two difficults and a volatile! By May 2004
the shares were down 30%.
Surprisingly, the word challenging is often used in the same sentence
within what seems a positive paragraph. Take this from a statement put out by
Regent Inns on September 3rd 2003.
'I am pleased to report on a strong financial performance from our branded
operations during the year, despite the most challenging of conditions in our
market place".
The statement also contained other phrases: "In such a challenging trading
environment.." And challenging then got replaced by "difficult trading
environment".. twice! Amazingly the shares rose after the report because on
initial reading it seemed positive.
But my system told me two challengings and two difficults meant exit time.
By June 2004 they were down to 40p - down in value by more than a half.
So, take a good look at the shares you own. Read the company's last
report. If you see challenging or difficult, you know what to do!
Onto the markets... Trading still carries on in a tight range making it
difficult to make much money.
The more I look at it the more it seems best policy to hang onto the
steady eddie shares that rise slowly and be wary of the more racy ones, however
exciting they initially seem.
Serco has made a strong move higher today - I
like the move about 210p especially and to me that signals a return to the 225p
area in due course.
Burren Energy still looks in fine form and it
surely can't be long before it hits 300p and beyond. One wonders whether it
could ever do a Cairn Energy and really rocket!
One of my three stinkers, Trifast, is perking
up - I always felt I would at least get my money back on this one and there's
been some buying going on - a good report on the way maybe?
Telecom Plus is still fooling around the 300
level - as I keep saying a great long-term tuck away this - you could forget
about it and come back in the year 2006/7 when I reckon it'll be trading at the
650p level and be in the FTSE 250.
A kind e-mailer tells me 'Evil Knievel' (!!) got hammered for £1 million
over an aim stock called TDM. I know nothing about this and don't follow AIM
stocks as I think generally they are the way to the poor house.
But apparently he bought into it though he 'knew nothing about the
business' - as this is exactly what he said when shorting
Vanco this does give me a lot of hope!
I've said this a hundred times - steer clear of internet tipsters - they
will damage your wealth eventually and one suspects performance claims should be
taken with a large pinch of salt!
brought to you by Mr Robbie Burns from FrequentTrader
Past Commentaries
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004
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