Spread Betting Commentary

Welcome to new readers just joining the site from the link from my Sunday Times column. The site is updated every weekday lunchtime.

I've just been totting things up. I've made more than £22,000 over the last three months! I knew it had been good but not that good!

And no tax to pay as it's all in peps and isas. The only thing is now this is mostly on paper. I must not let these profits slip away and I'm wondering about doing some selling next week.

Are you watching the brilliant "The Apprentice" - BBC 2 6pm weekdays -record it! 16 would-be managers fight it out to become an apprentice with Donald Trump.

They are split into two teams, boys and girls and the girls simply beat the boys at every task. As Trump says: "I'm beginning to wonder if I'll ever employ a man again!"

I have to agree I'm afraid, which is tough given that I'm a man. I've employed men and women over the years and the women have nearly always turned out better than the men. Harder working, more conscientious, better at negotiating, you name it they are better!

Even at the café all the blokes I've ever employed have turned out to be rubbish which is why all 7 employees are currently women!

The only thing with women though is they hold grudges for months! At least with a bloke, you can have a row about something and the next day it is forgotten!

I was amused reading a comment on a bulletin board the other day.

"I don't think Robbie has a girlfriend or wife judging by his picture.. in fact I think he bats for the other team!"

I've got a feeling it's because I was wearing my flowery shirt! Anyway I've told the missus not to worry, I'm definitely on her team!

Onto the bulging e-mail bag.

Hi Robbie, I can confirm for your reader that the Aylesbury Xmas trees were indeed installed last week, seemingly they were 'delivered' early, by mistake!

On a more serious note, I have been reading your web site diary (clicking on diary) for some months, often cursing the seeming delay (sometimes 48hrs) in the diary being available to read.

Then light dawned on Wednesday; having pressed Ctrl AND F5 I brought up both Monday/Tuesday's diary which recorded active comment on points you had made.

Clearly, others had accessed your diary! So this morning I looked at your home page to pick up your e-mail address and miracle of miracles - there was Thursday's diary for all to see.

I have awarded myself the dull s-d of the year award but others might just have the same problem - hence the note.

Thanks for the diary, its great fun and for a novice investor like me a good cheerful learning experience; by the way my thumb also hovered over the UMB sell button but in my inexperience I couldn't work out the logical reason for the fall and so my thumb didn't descend. Could inexperience work as well as experience I wonder!

David

Ta David - yes for some reason this website tends to get stuck in readers' browsers - so always press F5 and CRTL together to check you are getting the latest update!

From reader Robert:

Do you believe in quirks of fate? I read my story on your site Wednesday and in the evening my sister rang to say that she received a postcard that morning which my wife had posted whilst on holiday 16 August!

Yesterday, my son received a card posted the same day!! The cards were posted from France so I suppose the Royal Mail will blame the French.

However, I have often been impressed with the speed we receive mail from France, typically 2 days often quicker than letters posted the same day within the UK

Now on a more serious topic here's Peter:

"I think your reader Eren is confusing himself, whilst rising oil prices will impact on BP & Shell it will only be marginally in percentage terms.

One of the main factors for the FTSE rise is Vodaphone which has been very strong of late and is a major component of the FTSE.

Was it Shell or BP who announced an oil strike the other day, and what did the share price do,
sweet b----r all. Compare that to a Burren strike!!

High oil prices are hereto stay certainly over the next quarter and yes it will impact on our economy and the US which together with its HUGE deficit and increasing daily.

My forecast is for a massive correction of the US market and the FTSE to a certain degree and BP & Shell will go with the flow in spite of ever increasing oil prices - $75.00 a barrel is my forecast.

Reading some of the other comments it seems to me that quite a few people get too close to the market, my advice is if you have bought a share for a specific reason and the story hasn't changed stay with it, and use any down turn as an opportunity to buy more, that's what I did with Burren. Just wish Melrose would dip a bit.

And here's reader David also replying to Eren:

With regards to the question posed by Eren about the Ftse and Oil Price moving in tandem. My take on the recent rises are:

I think if you look at the stock market at the moment, it is more a market of stocks than a stockmarket. If you look at the components of the FTSE 100 - 40% weighting is attributed to Oils and Banks.

The stories surrounding the banking sector are the possible bid for Barclays by Citibank and a possible American predator hunting Man Group (The most shorted stock in the FTSE). Other Financials have rallied as a reaction to broad based rallies.

The Major Oils, as contrary to opinion, do not necessarily benefit too much if the crude price is high, as their rating is based on the sustainability of earnings and the replenishment of reserves. If you look at the share price of BP/Shell the share price was higher when crude was $20 a barrel.

However, if you look at oil sensitive stocks such as ICI, BA etc. Their share prices are rallying too. Therefore, one must conclude that professional investors do not see this oil price as sustainable at a level above $50 a barrel, as the market is quite comfortable with this.

However, I believe, contrary to logic, the market has rallied as if the oil price is currently $35-40 a barrel. Therefore, if the price of oil does fall, I would expect the equity markets to fall too, and not form a new leg up.

The only caveat is if oil does keep ascending and not retracing, then this will be factored into the equity markets and there will be a big sell off.

Also, the markets are factoring in a peak in interest rates, with possible falls next year, and thus the credit risk in equities seems to have dissipated in the UK economy on doveish news.

So for now, the market seems to be underpinned by bid activity and a healthy backdrop for oil stocks.

Lastly, it is one of the only years in the last 4 that I haven't heard anyone talking about a stockmarket crash, and most investment houses are predicting a 5-10% upturn in share prices before the end of the year.

Noticeably the VIN and VXN levels which measure the volatility/fear in the market are at 9 year lows, implying there is no fear in the market. It is at these levels when a counter-trend can form."

Good points Peter and David! Here's my critic Frank again in answer to my defenders!

"Having read the response you have received to my comments regarding stop losses, I am beginning to fear the worst.

You may recall my concern that permitting your stops on UMB to be violated would undermine their importance.

Well from the couple of responses from Norman and John it is clear there exists a reluctance to acknowledge reality when an open position starts trading in the wrong direction.

Taking small losses is no bad thing and should be fully anticipated as an integral part of trading. It demonstrates discipline coupled with a handle on real time reality.

Small losses are defined as normal trading risk and should be accepted before entering a position. Forfeiting such a risk to your capital is all part of the game but that should be it, no more is to be permitted.

After all the idea is to make money not to stand by and watch or even give the market permission to run away with large chunks of your account capital as it heads on a fast track towards and beyond your stop loss.

This is typically symptomatic of the counterforce known as EGO and the need to be right, which may be fine for some but quite often simply not profitable. Every trader needs to decide his/her preference.

Now re - Normans comments about rules being for the guidance of wise men etc. etc etc well he's got it the wrong way round. In the context of trading, truly wise men make up the rules for their own protection in purely procedural matters.

As for reliance on his own judgement, well that should be guarded and saved and only summoned for the more imaginative and creative area of trading like managing the trade to optimise the reward.

When ever judgement is called upon, a decision is usually required. Judgement in turn requires a mental thought process which can sometimes be emotionally draining, and in the context of trading and especially when a trade is going wrong.

As you watch the market take your capital this judgement needs to be made quite often very quickly. In the emotion of the moment the wisest of men can make a bad judgement call.

The message is simple : Taking your own stops should be the easiest thing in the world, not the subject of a decision making process or judgement call.

That was made to begin with before the trade was opened, before you put up your money and actually assumed the risk. So why not delegate all routine matters to a set of well designed rules."

Thanks Frank! But I still don't completely agree - sometimes rules should be broken, it would be a pretty boring life if we all stuck to the rules all the time!

Onto the markets now. Well, another great day!

I took profits in my spread bet long on Mouchel Parkman - it rose a lot today and reached my target so even with good results on the way I decided to take profits and sold my £25 position at 439p to grab a very decent profit of £700. Frank would be proud of me!

Burren simply continues to add £500-£700 a day to my accounts! Fenner looks like it's about to break up after a few big buys yesterday.

Wow, what a rise in Aminex - my latest but at 13.15p looks well timed! In fact it's now really broken out and bigger rises looks likely. It's also on the cards my losing positions on this one could end up being profitable.

Get continues to edge upwards and I wonder if a good trading statement is on the way. Havelock is bouncing off a good support area and looks likely to climb again.

I've now got more than 30% profits in Highbury House - my risky bet has paid off. But judging by the whopping buys coming in there may be more to come, so sticking with it for now.

Some good buys coming into Umbro which must be undervalued at these levels. I have a strong feeling I'm not going to take a loss! Radstone continues to climb and I'm not taking profits yet!

Thursday 30th September

There's nothing worse than getting your timing wrong. Look, we've all done it, bought a stock at the wrong time at the top, sold it at the bottom and then watch it go right back up again.

Here is one reader's recent woes:

'I held AFD (African Diamonds). Purchased at 41.25 with a big spread, usually 10% or thereabouts. Much rumour etc and the chart looking good.

This morning at 9 ish the bid/offer stood at 42/47 and looking strong. At 11.28 AFD made an announcement to the effect that they were aware of the recent price rise and could not account for it and no news announcements were planned.

Carnage then set in and by 11.41 the bid/offer stood at 36/40. I got out and took the loss on the chin.

Looking at the stream I now see I was almost the last to sell and the buyers have dived back in with the result that the price now (12.55) stands at 38/39. Why I am retelling this sorry tale of familiar greed and stupidity?

The spread varies but is commonly around 10%. Between 11.16 am and 11.23 am immediately before the news announcement there were 4 trades, all sells obviously, at between 45.25p and 46.12p. The spread at that time had been reduced to a penny.

So that's why I am telling the tale - sour grapes? Whingeing pom? Insider trading?! Rob, what do you reckon?'

What do I reckon? Beware shares that are volatile and have a ten percent spread! If you get into one of these just beware you can do your brains!

Here's a view on Umbro from another reader:

'Robbie - interesting to read the correspondence on Umbro. After researching I followed you in - but unlike you I exited at my stop loss - 100p.

How did I justify this and might this approach help your fellow readers take the emotion out, as it did me?

I worked out my dealing costs + stamp duty for my size of trade. It meant that, if the stock went down by a further 1p approx, I would be better off selling and then buying back in (if I wanted) at the lower price rather than holding out.

So if you really like the stock (emotional), get out, relax, telling yourself you can get back when you want - and probably be in a better financial position."

Here's reader Norman on my telling off yesterday:

'In answer to Frank's e-mail re stop losses being a regular reader he must know that you view stop losses only as guides as all good traders should.

On the day of the Madrid bombings my portfolio lost 12% for no other reason than terrorist atrocities, no bad news, no profit warnings but shares fell because a few fanatics planted bombs. I wonder how many stop losses were triggered that day.

The onus on when to buy or sell must be on the individual but I have always believed that rules were for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools. I would always prefer to use my own judgement."

Good points, Norman!

And reader John says:

'Blimey what a bollocking but I think your reader is talking rubbish. The bottom line in my view is, that it's your money and if you win or lose its down to you. I certainly wouldn't assume to tell someone else how to spend their money, bloody cheek!"

On a different subject a friend tells me that the Xmas lights were put up in Aylesbury last week, can any readers confirm this ?"

John, I really agree about Xmas! I think it should be government policy to ban anyone doing anything commercial regarding the big day until November 20th!

And anyone want to comment on this from reader Eren:

"Hi Rob I wonder if you or maybe your readers would care to throw some light on this. We all know BP and Shell make up a big part of the ftse 100 hence when they rise the ftse rises with them.

But what I do not understand is when the oil price eases the market rallies, so how is it that when oil is so expensive the market chooses to go up even if the oil majors are going down.

And how much longer can the oil companies fuel the rise of the ftse 100 before reality sets in and investors realize it's going to end in tears hi energy costs will hit us all and hard."

Onto the markets now. I hate to keep saying this. but yes, it's another great day for the portfolio with loads of risers.

My last trade in Radstone is already proving a big winner with the shares soaring today.

Burren Energy released another decent drilling report. These shares have now leapt through the previous strong 450 barrier and look set for 500p.

I have to laugh when I read the bulletin boards and people are panicking because some bloke on a tipping site says sell!

Remember this bloke isn't good enough to make money on the markets so has to get paid to tip!

As I keep saying ignore all the tipster schmucks - they are just good bulls******ers! Make your own way in life and in the stock market!

Also moving well is Fenner (at last!) Looks like it will either break out here or retreat. So I expect a move back to 110 or a good rise past 120 - but a nice 250,000 buy went in today.

Umbro continues to claw back its recent losses and is trying to get back above 100p. Sondex also is going back to where it was before the tree shake.

I'm holding onto Highbury House a little longer even though I could take a 20% profit right now.

I'm sure most of you are making loads like me right now, nice isn't it. But we have to remember what goes up often comes down so I believe it may be profit-taking time soon.

Wendesday 6th October

I've been really impressed by the qualities of the e-mails I've been getting. So much so that I've reconsidered the idea of a frequent trader bulletin board.

So many of you have such interesting things to say that they deserve to be read by others and not just me.

In the meantime emails from two readers on Sondex:

Ken White reckons:

"You may want to have a look at Sondex. The price continues to drop against a rising market. I think it is time to take profits.

I completely disagree Ken. Sondex is a great company and the market makers are just tree shaking. I say, hold on to the good ones! The "rising market" is irrelevant to these types of stocks.

And here's reader Jag on why he sold Sondex.

"Just my reasoning for selling my Sondex holding yesterday, and may also be the reasoning of other sellers.

I have previously watched my profits taken away slowly over a period of weeks as I have watched shares fall, so I have been trying to be more disciplined with exit strategy.

It's nothing simpler than a trailing 10% stop loss. Sondex had started falling from 235 mid September, now yesterday may have been nothing more than a tree shake and it would not have bothered me if price was still above my trailing stop loss (211.5 pence).

I could not see any bad news and if I look back at my emotions just before selling, I hesitated many times but then had to remind myself of my exit discipline, so I sold at 208p.

I know you are a successful trader so I know that there's high probability that you are going to be right.

So I have come up with a re-entry point. At the expense of loss of some rise and dealing costs,
my re-entry point can be at previous good support level I think around 223.

This is just a strategy to help me take some emotions out of my unsuccessful trading in the past and to try and become more disciplined. Of course I would be interested in your feedback.

Incidentally for my continued education what is your process for determining a 'tree shake'?
Thank you for maintaining an excellent and informative site, and it's so refreshing to learn from a trader, trading successfully.

I am sure many of your followers like myself aspire to become as profitable trader as yourself!

Thanks for the compliments, Jag. I reckon there is nothing wrong with your approach, in fact it is sensible. It's just that experience taught me the fall was a tree shake.

And in any event I tend to hold on to good companies for as long as possible. I like to ride my winners now which is why I don't operate trailing stop losses myself.

On a different topic.. this is from Robert Payne:

"I thoroughly agree with your views about the postal service. You are right it's the management. The post men and women are excellent.

Our post man is kind, friendly, courteous and does an excellent job in conditions that most role would not envy. He's the sort who should get an MBE not some chairman of an ailing company!!

Anyway I thought you might like to hear this story.

When I was a lad, in Potters Bar, a neighbour who worked in London would sometimes arrive at work to learn that he would have to work late.

As he did not have a telephone at home he would send his wife a postcard telling her that he would be working late with the certain knowledge that his card would be delivered in the afternoon's post!!

Now, years later and with the latest technological advances I would not trust the management of Royal Mail to organise a piss up in a brewery!!!

Hear Hear, Robert!

Now here's reader Frank with what I can only describe as, and pardon the language, a bollocking!

After your strong endorsement of the book Come Into My Trading Room, I sent for it through your site, and must agree it's brilliant and fully justifies your recommendation.

Many thanks for drawing my attention to it. Received it yesterday and avoided doing important things last night to read it.

Anyway back to being bolshie.

What a load of rubbish today about not taking your stop on UMB, and support appears at 90p - you hope.

Following your site daily as I do, you permitted your first stop to be violated, now your second and from today readjusting downwards to a third. That's gambling.

Whilst I appreciate you recommending good books may I suggest after reading them you perhaps digest some of their contents as to what represents good trading practice.

The fact is that even if you prove to be correct about support at 90p and it then head northwards and you make a fantastic profit, you will still have traded badly and will have won the wrong way.

The market sometimes randomly rewards bad behaviour and in doing so sucks us in for future falls.

Robbie you know from our past exchanges that I only ever wish you well, but on this occasion and from the viewpoint of winning the wrong way, it might be better for some of your newbie readers for you to be stopped out.

My reasoning is based upon the fact that should you ultimately make a profit it might well appear to undermine the importance of stops and the real requirement to police them properly."

Fair enough comments from Frank although I feel like a pupil being told off my the head! The thing is my years of experience sometimes prompts me to break these kind of rules however good they are. And that's why I keep banging on about please not to follow me.

Sometimes I will break the rules and often I do get away with it. The chart obviously shows massive support for Umbro in the 90p area - so why take a loss when I am certain they are going to bounce rapidly!

Your e-mails are welcome and as you can see the critical ones I am more than happy to publish.

One new trade made - a spread bet this time - and a long on an old favourite, Radstone Technology (RST). I bought for £15 a point at 324.2p. The shares are already going higher.

I mentioned a few times I was looking to get back into this one and now is the time! This isn't any old loss making tech company but a good solid business.

I'm not however in this for the long term which is why it's a spread bet but I'm hoping to take profits in the 360p area. Target 360p, stop loss 310p.

Yet again it's a wonderful day for the porffolio!

Well, I've got the 11p sell price I was looking for on Highbury House which is a quick 20% profit on the shares bought just a few days ago. I am itching to take it but level 2 shows the shares could go a little higher so I'm hanging fire for the second.

Umbro as I thought is bouncing off the early 90s - needs a bit of a push to get back above 100p. Nothing has changed since I thought they were good value at 117 except the loss of just one club. It's going to higher.

And to the Umb BB writer who reckoned I must be tearing my hair out.. I haven't got any so he's completely wrong!! By the way, bald men are great in bed - fact!

Sondex as I suspected is back on the rise after the tree shake. Results are out soon and I think the shares will get to at least 250p. At which point I might take profits!

White Young Green might appear to be down today but it is only because it has gone ex-dividend. In fact it is really slightly up as the div was nearer 4p than 3p.

Mouchel Parkman continues its rise ahead of results and is proving a good winner. UCM is holding well after recent gains and I expect a gain after this pause for breath.

Telecom Plus is slowly trying to creep up and above 300p. Actually these slow moves are better than big leaps that are not sustained.

Some whopping big buys in Aminex today - could this be the next big oil mover? I've bought a few today although I'm not adding them to the site.

Burren is close to breaking that 445p area! It could be today and if it does it really will fly to 500p! VP is starting another climb too.

Tuesday 5th October

Interesting letter in management speak from the Royal Mail today. A few select phrases:

"This is part of an initiative to combine first and second class deliveries".

And

"Customers will still receive all their post by around lunchtime".

Hang on a minute! Aren't "initiatives" supposed to be a good thing?

What the letter really says is: "Your postal service is about to get completely crap. You used to get your post before 9am and now it'll be around 1pm."

Whoever's in charge deserves a good slap in the face with a cold kipper. Because it's not the postmen/women's fault especially but the amazingly incompetent management.

Even a couple of years ago the mail used to be sacrosanct and you'd get it before you left for work.

Now forget it! You might get your mail or you might not. Or most probably it'll have been delivered to the wrong address or be lying in a gutter somewhere.

And talking of shoddy service Tesco were supposed to deliver our shopping on Sunday. The bloke in the van called and said the van had broken down.

"OK," I said. "Deliver it tomorrow instead." And he agreed. Of course there was no show on Monday so I called customer services.

"I'm afraid the next delivery slot is Wednesday," said the operator. "And I keep trying to call the store but nobody answers!"

She then went on to suggest I called the store personally (even though she couldn't get through herself!)

"Make it Wednesday then," I said wearily. I suspect it will arrive sometime late afternoon along with my post!

Do NOT miss the brilliant "The Apprentice" on BBC2 at 6pm every day. It's a show from the states where 16 would-be entrepreneurs battle it out to get a job as manager of one of Donald Trump's companies.

Each day Trump tells one of them: "You're fired!" It's brilliantly entertaining which is no doubt why the BBC manage to broadcast it at a time when those who'd want to watch it are probably on their way home from work - so make sure you all video it!!

Is the market running out of steam? Or just pausing for breath? Anyone who's got a time machine come back and let me know.

I never make forecasts, I try and guess like everyone else - this is why I couldn't set myself up as a "guru". The markets will always bite you in the bum..

For example here's a famous expert's view from just a week ago:

"Looking at the FTSE 100 it has real difficulty breaking 4600. Now with the negative oil news, you have to wonder if it will do the obvious and decline to 4500, then 4400 and finally by end October settle at 4300.

I am turning increasingly bearish in the short-term and prefer to close some long positions and bias towards more short positions."

No comment needed!

So what's happening today with my lot?

UCM continues its nice rise, I suspect the market-makers are a bit short of stock so have widened the spread to cool off trading. I still feel there is plenty of upside to at least 100 and maybe 110.

Mouchel Parkman is rising before results which I suspect are going to be rather good.

Burren is having problems getting above 445 but I have little doubt it's only a matter of time.

Cattles is a big riser for me today and it's heading close to the target price.

Telecom Plus continues its attempt to get back over 300p, the next few days should be crucial but announcements coming on Oct 17th (including, and I'm guessing a change of name to Utilities Warehouse) should help lift and keep the price over 300p.

I had a couple of e-mails today from Sondex holders along the lines off, oh my god the share is down massively, I've taken profits!

I disagree with you! Sondex looks a great growth story and the market makers just did a massive tree shake which worked.

But as soon as they got the shares they wanted the price bounced back sharply. My view is, if you have a good company, stick with it and ignore the shakes!

My badly-timed Umbro buy just shows I shouldn't buy into something I know nothing about, ie football!

Yesterday my finger kept reaching for the sell button as it passed my updated 98p stop loss. What stopped me from taking the loss was the chart which showed the last time it got down to 90p there was a huge bounce and I suspect this is about to happen again.

If it goes below 90 I'll sell but I think it's worth the risk to keep holding a little longer. At this kind of level the company must be undervalued, or am I just nuts?

Now here are a few interesting e-mails received from you lot recently! David writes regarding the materials that UCM produces

'I suspect (not certain) that UCM produces cements for furnaces where the fire bricks have to be bonded and sealed from the outer metal shell.

This I do not know but companies like Saureisen in the US make high temp (2400°C ) cements based on zirconia.

The material is also used in the core of heating elements for electric stoves and industrial heat treatment ovens, and bar heaters.'

Thanks David. And Here's Jenny regarding my comments on trying to get Sky on a second TV.

'A few months ago I bought a device that comes in two parts, a transmitter and a receiver. Both about 4inches high and looking like little satellite dishes .

You plug the first via a scart lead into the back of your SKY box. The second gets plugged into the back of any other TV in the house. There are no other wires.

It's simple enough to tune in and you can then get SKY on the second TV. You can only change the channel at the SKY box though.

To my surprise the picture and sound quality are equally good on both sets. About £50 from 'One for all' - the firm that makes those universal remote controls. Probably available from Dixons or Comet. Worth every penny.'

Ta Jenny, I'll look into that. Here's Simon with some interesting shorting ideas on housing:

There was a discussion the other day, I think it was on here, about ways to take advantage of the drop in house sales volumes. Believing that the FTSE is well overdue a retrace, I've been looking at things into which to sink bearish fangs. Following this theme:

1. As mentioned previously, estate agents. Savills (SVS) could be interesting, but a lot of their business is high-value sales and corporate lets. I think an estate agent that is far more exposed to a wider market decline is Countrywide (CWD) - the chart's not great either....

2. On-sales of financial services on the back of a house sale. The big mortgage lenders have other interests that limit their exposure, but there are specialist mortgage lenders out there that could be more interesting.

Two I've looked at are Paragon (PAG) who specialise in buy-to-let mortgages and could suffer the double whammy of falling new business and people selling up to move into other investments.

The other, of course, is Kensington (KGN) who lend to high-risk borrowers at higher-then-normal interest rates. They could also suffer a double whammy, again, falling new business, but also rising defaults as their borrowers, typically not the sort to manage debt well, start to feel the credit squeeze.

3. Companies specialising in domestic removals. I couldn't find any plcs here, but I'd be very interested in any suggestions. You'd probably want to steer clear of those with too big an involvement in commercial removals.

While digging around, I also came across two others I'll be keeping a close eye on: International Real Estate (IRE), and even more so Hammerson (HMSO) whose chart is pants, has recently had several broker downgrades and whose CEO exercised and immediately sold 20,000 options at 7.61 during September.

Monday 4th October

Still looks like I did the right thing, selling my house, taking the cash and renting. House prices look increasingly rocky but next year I think they're in for a tumble.

My treadmill is now in my office along with a digital radio and flat screen TV. I now listen to music on the radio when I'm running instead of watching the music channels because I can't get Sky up in the office.

Well, I could by paying extra every month which I didn't mind but I DO mind being told I am forced to keep a phone line plugged in to the digi box!

Amazingly the BskyB sales girl who was desperate to sign me up for the extra box said if I didn't agree to that I couldn't have the box.

"Fine" I said. "I'll do without it then - I don't want more wires trailing all over my office just so you can find out what I'm watching and try to target me with more ads. And I'm never ever going to use any of the feeble interactive options."

"Oh go on," she said. "You know you want it". (I think she might have a good career in porn).

"Actually, I'm not that bothered," I said.

You'd have thought a company whose share price is on the rocks and it having trouble getting subscribers would be more worried about getting the money off me every month than be that bothered about the data they collect or try and get me to press red!

Anyhow to get to the point of this now too long-winded story, I kept hearing a track on "Heat" Radio. They don't have DJ's (praise the lord!) but the problem is you have no idea who the artists are.

I thought it was a jolly song and enjoyed running to it and decided to listen to the charts on Sunday to find out the artist. Must be some kind of new, cool band, I decided.

I soon discovered it was number 8 in the charts (down three places!!!!). But I reeled with horror and shock when the DJ said the two words. GIRLS ALOUD!!!! I don't think I need to add anything to this story except for God help me!

Onto the markets and one new buy, unusually spurred on by one of my readers, Gary. As you can imagine I get people writing to me all the time with ideas for good stocks to buy.

And in all the time I've been doing this site I've only bought two shares from readers' mails - ie, shares I didn't find myself.

So, I take no credit for finding it! Gary mailed me in the middle of last week with this one and I liked the look of it but didn't research it in depth till the weekend.

The share is UCM and I bought 5,000 shares at 83p. I also bought 5,000 for Elizabeth's ISA and 4,000 for my pension. For site purposes the buy is 5,000. Target is 110p, stop loss 75p.

Shame the price had already risen before I bought - I wish I'd bought on Friday but never mind.

The share is liquid for a smaller company with market makers happily dealing in lots of 5,000 or about £4,000 worth or so. UCM is a fused minerals supplier - what the hell is that? Exactly!

Well, its magnesia products are used for the domestic and industrial appliance sector and its zirconia products are used by the steel industry.

Not being scientific I have no idea what use these products are but I guess that doesn't matter as its customers seem to want them!

But what I can see is sales are going well and trading in Europe and the US looks good though China appears to be a problem.

The company is trying hard to grow sales and if that effort pays off I think there is more upside in the shares which at worst look fairly valued. There's also a good dividend.

Investors Chronicle reckon they are "good value" and "not expensive". Looks to me like a limited downside with excellent upside possibilities.

So wow, the markets continue to blossom and my shares just keep going up.But you know when things are too good to be true?

My current thoughts are to take my profits before the end of the year because I think next year is going to be the year of the shorter - just a hunch.

Anyhow for today Burren is having another stab at getting through the tricky 445-450 area but once though I feel the next area of stickiness will be 500p.

I've thought about selling Fenner a few times through boredom but hell, I've stuck with it and it's up nicely today, maybe a good report is on the way.

White Young Green continues to look strong and a break through the current area should see another 20p.

My risky gamble in Highbury House is paying off so far and I'm hoping to get my 11p sell price sometime this week.

Telecom Plus continues sneaking closer to 300p as we approach the October 17th announcements.

Thursday 30th September

Hurrah - it's the weekend! Time to wind down, relax and forget about shares. Which is quite difficult.

I had a dream last night that I was trying to sell shares but my computer gradually faded away and stopped working.

Probably means I'm worried that I should soon be taking all the profits that have been building up on paper.

So the market is showing some strength today, interesting to see whether the FTSE has really broken out and is possibly on the way to 4700.

David Schwartz reckons the FTSE will end the year at 4900. A fairly quiet end to the week for me.

White Young Green continues its march upwards after recent results and I wish I'd bought more now at 205p as it breaks 240p!

The Chronicle gives it a good write-up and reckons the shares are cheap even after recent rises. It's a good solid safe one!

My lovely steady riser Dignity continues to do the business and has clearly gone over 300p today - 330p looks the next target, at which point I might consider taking some profits!

Alumasc is another great safe company which is also rising steadily for me. Up a nice 7 points today and looks set to take a stab at the 200p area.

A bit of profit-taking in Burren but nothing to worry about as it's gone up every day for weeks! I intend to stay in for more rises to come.

My badly-timed buy of Umbro continues to irritate - but I had a good look through the last accounts and I see no reason to sell.

It's still a good business - I see from Independent Retailer Mag than I get at the café that it's launched a new sports drink.

The packaging looks good and it's interesting to see Umbro diversifying like this. I suspect a drop to 98p followed by a sharp bounce as the shares must be well undervalued.

Telecom Plus is rising again and another attempt at 300p looks likely. I suspect the company will change its name to Utilities Warehouse very shortly and I think now this is a good move to take it away from the telecoms and into the utility sector.

It'll be good for the share price too - big announcements coming on October 17th which should gladden the hearts of distributors, shareholders and customers!

My risky gamble in Highbury House is paying off so far - a widening of the spread has killed off some of the trading but I don't see why I shouldn't get my 11p sell price next week! A dividend from VP Group today for £140 - thanks VP!

Thursday 30th September

The Labour party conference. What a joke! How sickly and ghastly it all is. The fawning and creeping is all too much for me and I could barely watch much.

As usual Gordon Brown talks about how important the future and pensions are but who was it that raided all our funds by 10% by taking away dividend credits? Er. Gordon Brown!

You just know none of these politicians really give a damn. They are all self-centred egotists. You think they care about pensions or 15 years ahead? Nope! All they care about is getting back in again next year.

As for Bono calling Blair and Brown "Lennon and McCartney". Almost too sickening to comprehend!

Thanks for your kind e-mails about my Vanco report. I hope it's given shareholders some hope for the future but it really is a long-term hold and not a short-term play. One or two holders still worry about the debt issue too much.

Debt went up because of all the successful contract wins and I'd rather have the debt and the contracts than no debts and no contracts! The FD says debt is stabilising and will come down - and I really feel he knows what he's doing!

Well, pretty much every day for the past few weeks I've started off by saying it's another good day on the markets. and , er it is again today!

The portfolio continues to soar higher with my only recent blunder being the bad-timed buy of Umbro. Joint equal stars of the day are VP Group and Get Group.

VP released a confident trading statement today which has pushed the shares up another 6p. Right now my view is to look for a climb up to 180 or so before taking profits.

Get now keeps shooting up and I'm glad I averaged down at 184p. It means now instead of being a loser for me it's close to break even and if it goes any higher, I'll be in profit which could be a happy ending to what looked like being a poor losing position.

Not sure why it's up but something is going on! And of course my good friend Burren continues to go up daily.

One new trade today and this one is probably my first short-term risky trade of the year. I usually try and avoid this kind of small share bottom fishing because more often than not it leads to disaster.

The buy is 40,000 shares in Highbury House (HHO) at 9.35p - a share I've made a few quid on in the past. Stop loss 8.75p, target 11p.

It's going through a torrid time and prospects don't look great. A profits warning this week drove the price down to new lows. New management is in and they don't have much time to turn things around.

I debated with myself for a while as to whether to take the plunge because it makes me feel a bit of a hypocrite as I don't approve of this kind of risky trading.

However, directors of the company lumped on as the share price hit lows at around 9p and that persuaded me to take what I can only describe as a risky fun gamble to give me a bit of excitement.

I have no intention of holding onto this onto this for very long. Please do not consider following me in this extremely risky purchase.

As I write the price has moved further up to 9.5-10.25p. That means if you tried to follow me you'd already be buying at nearly 10% more than me!

Remember I can easily afford to take the hit on this and I have bought a very small amount compared to my usual buys.

Wendesday 29th September

You want research? You want to know the truth. The question is.. can you handle the truth?
So, off I went yesterday to the Vanco "shareholders afternoon."

I went to reception and announced my arrival and was told to sit for a while. I was then taken upstairs to the boardroom where I was expecting to see some other shareholders.

In fact, there were only two other shareholders who turned up! (Hallo you two!) That's a bit sad as Vanco were really keen for their shareholders to understand what they were investing in.

However, as I mentioned to the management, most shareholders are only in for a quick buck, want to get in and get out fast and have no interest at all in finding out about the company they're buying or selling.

Anyhow, I spent three very interesting hours there and I am now a definite Vanco expert! Go on, throw any question at me and I can answer it now!

So what did I discover. A company that is very dynamic, very focussed and knows exactly what it's doing, where it's going and how it's going to get there.

The most telling thing for me, and it might only be a small detail but I think it's very important and that's the company's obvious dedication to its customers.

John Locke, the very impressive and irrepressible chief technical officer showed us round the technical areas.

As he showed us the area where phone calls from customers come in and their problems are fixed, he told us about their "ratings system".

When a call to a customer has ended, that customer gets the chance to leave a one to ten rating for how he or she felt the call was handled by Vanco.

Any customer that leaves a five or below rating gets a callback within 15 minutes from one of the company's bosses.

That is the kind of attention to detail and service that impresses me. Workers are incentivised in many ways. They seem to really enjoy working there.

One of the shareholder's sons works there and he says his son rarely comes home till 10pm because he enjoys the work so much. Vanco stands for "Value Added Network Company".

It was set up by the man still in charge, Allen Timpany in 1988. I believe he really knows his onions. He also holds 61% of the shares in the company.

So what does it do? Come on, bet you shareholders have no idea have you! Vanco basically goes after very large contracts and the biggest companies and handles all their networking.

Here's an example. Vanco manages the Avis car rental network. So that's all its network across many countries and different languages. So when they look up your booking, Vanco runs that part of it.

If anything goes wrong with the system it's up to Vanco to sort it out. Vanco is a virtual operator so it doesn't own the assets.

While its volatile share price may make you think revenue is in and out, the opposite is the case.

Each contract is signed for an average of four years. The initial fee payable is about £600k then £1m per year, so total value of each contract is about £3.6m. So the company's revenues are long-term and assured.

On top of that 30% is added for out of contract charges (for example if Avis moved to another building at Heathrow).

Clients include Ford, Virgin, Kenzo, the FT, Clarks and Bosch. There are 200 Vanco sites across 30 countries.

Revenues have grown every year since 1994. In 2003 55m, 2004, 80m and analysts expectations are of 110m next year - expectations that the finance director told us he expects to meet.

Simon Hargreaves (Finance Director) told us profit growth was accelerating - profits to end Jan 2005 are likely to double from the previous year.

He describes their contracts as "unbreakable" and says even if they won no new contracts they would do as well next year as this!

Amazingly they can pass on their addition costs to customers such as if the price of circuits goes up or foreign exchange costs. The outlook for gross margin is 32%.

Investors often worry about the company's debt. However Simon is confident debt is under control and will become stable and then start to come down. He says this will help the share price to start heading higher.

That's one of the reasons for the setting up of "Vanco Finance". So if a company needs the finance a third party handles it (Barclays in effect) . As Simon says: "This means I get my cash on day one".

So what edge does Vanco have over its rivals? Companies prefer an independent company, says Vanco than going to someone like BT. This is because Vanco can say, shop around and get better deals on things like telecoms.

And what will drive growth and therefore the share price? Endorsements from top analysts. More sales staff and more contributing. Average contract size increasing.

USA and Australia growth. New sales operations in Brussels and Zurich. Increasing demand for Voice services. Enhanced buying power. More contracts o on the way.

And they are also doing well in partial penetration of very large accounts. For example they got into one part of hotel chain Accor and then won a much bigger slice.

And even better: Vanco is growing off a sub 1% market share - there is plenty to go for and networking is something bigger companies cannot skimp on. It's a need to have expense.

I'll finish with a quote from CEO Allen Timpany. "This will be a massive business if we get it right".

It looks to me like they're getting it right already and I'm convinced enough by my visit to continue to hold Vanco as an excellent long-term growth share and to possibly add more shares quite soon.

I could add more but I think it might become a bit tedious - if any shareholders have any more questions e-mail me and I should be able to answer Right that's enough about Vanco!

Another excellent day - both Havelock and White Young Green are rising after yesterday's good results and both have a long way to go.

White Young especially I'm pleased about as I've been patiently holding for a long time waiting for bigger buyers to realise how undervalued it is.

I think I've shown this year if you can spot that underrated company and hold, you can really make a lot of money.

Burren Energy continues to make me £500-£800 a day! And is up yet again - it simply continues to look strong and the market-makers in the stock don't want to know. Looks like going a lot higher still and is my profit-maker of the year!

VP Group is a similar tale to White Young, another underrated stock and that's starting to climb higher today, more good rises to come there.

I'm going to keep banging on about my two fave books of the day until you've all bought them! They will have a very positive effect on your trading!

Tuesday 28th September

Wow - what a weekend! We went to a hotel called Pennyhill park. An amazing place, best of the old and best of the new like underfloor heating in the bathroom, superb showers and rooms. And best of all an enormous spa area, the largest in the UK.

I had a wonderful massage and Mrs FT had a pregnancy one. There was a brilliant indoor and outdoor heated pool, a huge gym, and you could massage (pretty much) any part of your body in the various different spa areas.

A real treat - best to go on a Sunday night where you can get a suite for £150, a real bargain. So if you want to treat someone or have a couple of relaxing days.. go!

We were so relaxed we woke up at 7am on Monday morning after a great night's sleep and watched the (excellent) move Laurel Canyon on DVD on the laptop in bed.

What we did after that is my business - keep your nose out!

We also had a great time watching a company holding a 'symposium'. This means company employees dress in their 'smart casual wear' (basically wearing their work suits but self-consciously wearing open-necked shirts). They all get name-badges (!) and probably all have to sit round a table talking bollocks!

And of course they all get to play 'team building games'. Which of course won't make any difference cos once they get back to work the usual bitching and politics will carry on in exactly the same manner!

Just makes me and Mrs FT very glad we are out of that kind of thing. At one I was forced to go to once we were all asked to describe each other as what kind of 'animal' we would be.

So.. onto the markets. Two of the companies in the portfolio reporting today - both sets of results are pleasing although one's up 5p and the other's down 5p!

Starting with Havelock, an 18% hike in underlying profits is a good start. Taking the results as they stand, you can understand why some investors have taken profits this morning but there is a bigger picture which is why I intend to hold for a lot longer.

Current results make the company look about fairly valued but I don't think they yet take into account Havelock's investments and acquisitions in the education supply sector.

Looking forwards, these should have a big impact in the future. Teacherboards and Clean Air will soon be making contributions to profits. Also, the first half is traditionally weaker and the next report should be outstanding.

Basically the company has built itself up over the last year into a force to be reckoned with and bearing in mind how good its growth prospects are, I intend to not worry about short-term profit-taking and movement and keep the shares as a great (what I think will be) medium-term riser. In fact if they go down any more I might buy a few more this week.

Moving now to White Young Green, well, these results have everything I like to see in a good growth story. Increased profits, dividend and a confident strong statement. And looking ahead the picture looks even better with very strong forward order books.

I bought this one at around 205 and I'm not tempted to take profits at 225p today! Make it 275p and I'll let you have my stock!

This one seems underrated by private investors and institutions but value will out and there some decent buys going in today.

To sum up both these companies are very safe and excellent holds which should return good percentage increases along with dividends over the next few months.

What else? Well, Burren continues to be an amazing buy! Since the weekend the share has added another £1,000 to my spreadbetting account (I have a £50 long).

What's is its true value? Could be way higher given the positive reports. At any rate there is no stopping it and the market-makers in the stock simply are staying out of it! In sympathy Cairn is moving higher as well and profits on that one are coming in nicely now.

I'm at last getting somewhere with Get Group! Looks like my gamble in "averaging down" and buying more at 184p is paying off as the share heads over 200p again. The lead-up to the next statement I'm hoping will see some nice rises.

So, another good week by the look of it. Even the shorts are now really doing well. Pearson, Punch, Unilever, 3i and Close have all tumbled over the last few days.

I'm heading off to see Vanco this afternoon - funnily enough it is almost bang opposite where I used to work at BskyB - which means its offices are based in an area that can only be described in four letters beginning with S.

Still, it should be interesting I've had a few questions in, and in particular I'll try and get some answers about the company's debt for investors that seem worried about it.

Monday 27th September

Apologies for the late and short update! But just got back from my long weekend and got back later than I thought!

We had a great time - and I kept away from the markets too as I thought I wanted to keep the weekend stress free.

It's 3.30pm now and I can see despite the markets being savaged most of my lot have escaped being marked down much and my shorts are looking very profitable today.

I will be back tomorrow (Tuesday) with a normal full update probably a bit earlier than normal with a special look at results from Havelock and White Young. I'll see you all tomorrow!!

Friday 24th September

I'm getting away from it all this weekend! Off tomorrow (Saturday) to a very posh hotel in the country.

With only nine weeks until (hopefully) the baby arrives we've decided to pamper ourselves while we can. Mrs FT is booked in for various treatments and I'm getting a massage.

So the next update should be fairly relaxed!

A warm welcome to new readers who are joining this website for the first time this weekend from the link from my Sunday Times column.

It's updated every weekday lunchtime with market news, my trades, some ramblings and loads of special offers usually only available at this site!

It looks like this political conference season is going to be the worst yet. The Lib Dems have set the agenda with another pack of poorly thought-out nonsense.

I'd rather vote for the raving loonies than the Lib Dems. In fact the loonies should get quite a few votes next year!

Sadly our sorry politicians from all parties as usual fail to come up with any genuinely interesting ideas or policies. None of them care about anything apart from getting into power.

They want to part us from our money and give us little in return except for empty promises. All we hear is more ways to get money from us. Fines for yellow box infringements.. I ask you!

Anyway I could mouth off on this topic for hours so I'll leave it there and turn to the markets.
It's been another fabulous week for the portfolio which continues to climb higher.

My policy this year of hanging onto my winners for months and ignoring short-term sell offs has paid off.

Burren continues to be the star! Every point higher puts another £50 in my spread betting account which just keeps going higher. At this rate 500p is achievable quickly.

Yesterday's buy McBride as I said looks like being a solid performer for the rest of the year and by early next, I'm hoping to take profits at 190p which I believe is the price these shares were originally floated at a few years ago. I remember because I bought some in the float!

VP is starting a new climb higher and Telecom Plus looks likely to try and have another go at the 300p level.

Vanco is holding very well at near 300p. I am visiting the company on Tuesday and I can't believe I've not had a single question to ask the management from readers. Maybe none of you hold shares.

If you do, and you want me to ask anything at all while I'm there this is your last chance. E-mail me with any questions asap and I'll come back with some answers!

Next week sees Havelock Europa and White Young Green report - I'm expecting some good news from both, we'll see if I'm right very soon!

My commiserations to Thus holders today - a warning has sent them down a lot. I was looking at these only the other week but was put off by a huge share dump. Luckily that was a warning signal for me and I stayed away.

Looks like the management have not been kind to their shareholders as their previous statements had been quite positive.

Thursday 23rd September

Blimey - have any of you seen Deadwood, the new HBO show on Sky? I am a fan of HBO and love all their shows but this one is going to take some getting used to.

I've nothing against bad language and often use it myself especially when I've got a share that's dropping. but seems like there is too much here!

There seems too much swearing and too little character development so far.. but I'm going to persevere with it.

The Sopranos continues to be top class entertainment, if you've never seen it get out there and start watching from the beginning. Magical writing and production.

I reckon every investor needs some shares in their portfolio that aren't "exciting" as such but are good steady profitable companies.

They won't give you the rush of going up 12 points in a day or something.. but they also won't then suddenly go down 20 points the next.

I call these my "Dignity" shares, after of course funeral parlour chain Dignity that is dignifiedly (is that a word?) going up a little bit most weeks.

My "Dignity" list includes Sondex, White Young, 600 and Fenner. All solid companies - if there is a big market slide these shares will stay strong.

I've added another one of these shares to the portfolio today. I bought 4,000 shares at 148.85 in McBride (MCB). Stop loss 140p, target 190p.

The company makes own label products for supermarkets here and in Europe. I like this one for a number of reasons.

I think it's going to carry on rising slowly but surely and I expect this one to help slowly boost the portfolio. Its profits are starting to rise and more demand is coming in for its products.

Its market cap looks too low for profits likely to be achievable. And, best of all, institutions are buying in.

They bought shedloads yesterday and were prepared to pay 150p, that's a premium on the current price. And perhaps even better it's a sleep at night share!

Well, good old Burren! Continues to be an exciting prospect and if the 400p barrier can be smashed today, even bigger rises are in store.

I added another £20 to my spread long to bring it up to £50 a point yesterday. (Not showing this on my lists below as it's far too big a trade for website purposes).

I'm up something like £4,500 on my spreadbet so far. If Burren does a Cairn I'll make £50,000! However that is all pie in the sky for now!

The market-makers tried a giant tree-shake in Alumasc this morning - they dropped it 7p but got no sellers at all!

Investors just bought on weakness. This is good news for me as they had to start raising the price and it looks set for another run higher.

Umbro is beginning to lift again. The Celtic news is old hat and I think investors/institutions will realise the shares are undervalued.

I'm looking forwards to next week because I think good results are going to lift Havelock and White Young Green. Shares Mag reckons Havelock could go to 175p and I think that is achievable in time.

Wendesday 22nd September

I think I have a talented pet! I've got three tubby goldfish which live in an enormous upright tank.

They've been with me for 3 years and we all get on well. But over the last six months one of them does an amazing impression of being dead!

He or she lies flat on its back on one of the plants, looking like it died ages ago. There is no movement whatsoever.

It scared the hell out of me when it first started doing it but six months on, the fish seems to just enjoy doing it and doesn't seem ill at all when it's not doing the trick.

In fact when it comes to being knocked up in the morning this fish is the most enthusiastic. And it swims around the tank fine too most of the time.

I guess maybe it's just intelligent and reckons it's so boring in there is might as well shut down for a while.

It can also see the TV - and it seems to play dead during any soap opera, whenever ITV is on or anything with Dale Winton in it. Truly looks like an intelligent fish!

I'm still a bit under the weather so am settling down with some books. The online bookstore is amazing.

Thanks to a reader recommendation I ordered High Probability Trading by Marcel Link from the store yesterday at about 4pm - it arrived this morning at 9am - now that is service, well done!

I've had a skim through and it looks good already. I expect to have a review of it for you by the weekend.

The market continues to buzz higher which is good news for all of us and profits for the portfolio continue to jump higher.

There are huge profits in many of my positions simply because I've been patient and stuck with so many of them.

For example I'm up £3,000 on my positions in Dignity, nearly £8,000 profit in Burren ( I've also had a £30 spread long since 249p), nearly £3,000 profit in Sondex, £3,500 in Vanco, £2,000 in Fenner, and around £500 in many others.

My only real big losers are Aminex, around £3,000 and Get, £1,200 - both of which are beginning to improve!

The question is when do I start taking profits? The answer is not yet I think. I believe I have really learned to run my winners this year.

And that means not cutting and running too quickly - why quit good companies too early? And why panic too quickly if a good company goes down for a couple of days?

For example I made a mistake in selling Havelock too early so had to buy back thus costing me in commission and stamp duty.

Havelock appears on the move again - results due next week could prove the shares to be still undervalued, we will see!

Burren produced another spanking drilling report today and I wonder, is it possible they could do a Cairn? Could Burren double from here or even treble. Any of us would have laughed at such a suggestion over Cairn when it was 400p odd.

Seems to me to be wise to simply keep holding Burren - you just never know what might come next.

And at any rate I suspect Burren will be a very strong market for the rest of today and might even get near the 400p level at last.

How fantastic a share is Dignity? Up yet again today - it looks like tippling over 300p for the first time and seems destined for 350 in time. Now way I'm selling this beaut!

Cattles is up on a broker upgrade and Vanco continues to hold well at much higher levels than recently. Aminex continues its progress. The only fly in the ointment is recent buy Umbro.

I've dropped my stop to 99p (or 15%) on the basis that the Celtic news is very short-term and I don't want to stop myself out when the shares could easily bounce at any time.

I also think if they did drop to £1 they will bounce sharply. Umbro still has a great business there.

I've got my spread statement today and my Helphire spread expired on Sept 14th - I forgot to roll it.

Cantor closed me at 228.8 on my original buy which appears to be at 231.1 thus losing me £69.

However I can't understand how I got that price when the share was I think at 222-225 on expiry day. Cantor often gives generous closing prices but this seems too generous.

So generous that for website total purposes it seems only fair to take the loss it really should have been, which I think should be at 223.5p or £228.

So I've taken £228 off the totals. Can't be fairer than that, can I? Maybe I just had a lucky break!

Tuesday 21th September

Arrrgh! It's only just turning colder and I've already picked up a cold. Must be from one of the café customers yesterday as I went in to help for an hour. I feel very sluggish - a bit like some of my shares today - but you have to soldier on!

Thanks for a lot of interesting e-mails about books - I never realized there were so many good ones out there I hadn't read yet!

"You need to become self-aware to be a good trader. Keep good records, learn from past mistakes and do better in the future.

Traders who lose money tend to feel ashamed. A bad loss feels like a nasty comment - most want to throw up, walk away and never be seen again. Hiding doesn't solve anything. Use the pain of a loss to turn yourself into a disciplined winner."

Dr Elder is so right. You have to be true to yourself. Something I can never do is hide! Running a website like this keeps me exposed but I actually finds that beneficial.

Right, onto the markets. Yesterday's buy Umbro has gone down 4% after the company said it has lost its deal with Celtic.

The fall seems a bit overdone as the Umbro board said it does not expect there to be any significant impact on the business from the failure to extend the contract for 2005 and beyond.

Celtic is only one of its many teams and it doesn't mean that much. I still feel happy to keep hold of Umbro although obviously I wish I'd bought today on weakness instead of yesterday.

I would only be seriously worried if the shares looked like they were going to tumble under 100p. The medium-term uptrend is still well intact.

Burren looks like it might at last lift itself above its recent range with profit-takers maybe out of the way now. Still an exciting prospect.

Vanco continues its solid rises day by day - the 300p mark could be difficult to breach though. I'm off to visit the company next week.

VP has started to rise again after a bit of profit-taking recently. I still find it best to hold on to good companies during profit-taking. The shares soon rise again.

Bit quiet otherwise - but all the action is due next week. Both Havelock Europa and White Young Green report - so one way or another it is going to be interesting!

Monday 20th September

After my bout of celebrity name-dropping on Friday there will be absolutely no mentions of celebrities whatsoever today. Today will be a serious look at the markets and that's what my in-depth site should be about!

This site is serious. It's time I stopped being frivolous and just grow up! Celebrity name-dropping is sooo childish.

By the way, did I mention John McCirick, the crazy betting guy from Channel 4 was MC at my wedding?

He's a practising psychiatrist and that's important because as I keep saying you have to have the right mindset to trade and make profits. The book is part psychology, part technical, part fundamental and as a whole a work of genius.

I agree with pretty much everything he says and I really think if you read this book it will make you a better trader.

His views as to why most traders lose are illuminating and anyone reading this book will soon grimace and see where they went wrong.

I've bought a new share today. I bought quite a few in fact - 4,000 shares and 14,000 shares at 117p which cost me £21,000 in total. For website purposes we'll take my smaller buy!

Easy to buy loads of shares in this one as it's very liquid and got a market size of nearly £20,000 worth of shares and probably more in reality.

The share is Umbro (UMB). My target is 140p, stop loss is 110p. So what's getting me going on this one?

Quite a number of things - Umbro supplies football kit and equipment and was launched onto the market a few months ago at about 110p - it did bugger all and went down to 90p.

It's rising fast now and it's easy to see why and why there is more to come. A very powerful statement recently showed huge increases in profits and turnover.

But the most exciting thing is a recent deal with US company Footlocker. Footlocker in the states is the trainer equivalent of Starbucks. And Americans are going nuts for football right now.

I love the growth potential possibilities for the company and I don't think these are yet in the share price.

Umbro seems very confident of a good year end and at 117p I feel there is not a lot of downside.

OK, the shares have climbed a fair bit recently and there's always the chance of a bit of a reversal - but I can only see upside over the next few weeks.

Some very big buys coming in this morning including one of 98,000 as I write. The chart looks good too.

I have been trying so hard not to get bored with holding Costain. But damn it I couldn't cope with the non-moving price any longer and sold up at 42p to seal a loss of £450.

I will always have a soft spot for the company as it's the one that's made me more money than any other having traded it from 12p all the way up.

But for right now it's stuck in a rut and not even good news seems to have much effect. It will move once again someday and when it does, as Arnie says, I will probably be back!

Nice when there's a profits warning... and you happen to have a short open. I've been holding on to a short in Unilever for a while waiting for a warning and today it's announced - I think more falls are to come.

Burren reported today - no surprise to see some profit-taking this morning - this simply looks like a good long-term hold with more good newsflow to come.

My stinker Aminex (a short-term trade that turned into a long-term disaster) has shot up 30% on news of a licence win. If I ever can get out of this one at a profit I owe someone up there something.

Alumasac's directors continue to buy - more shares bought today for a trust. They think it's undervalued and so do I - only one way for this one to go over time and that's up!

Vanco continues pushing up - I am assuming Evil has closed his short - can anyone fill me in on that?

A slight dip on Havelock - short-term punters get bored quickly. But I think results due on the 28th will send the shares higher.

I'm glad so many of you are piling in for the special offer on a Comdirect account. I'm getting a lot of good feedback at the moment . one reader writes:

"Bought some Brandon this am. Have not got L2 but very interesting to see my buy (via Comdirect) at 139.65 when nearly everyone else is 140 and price unchanged through period."

Tuesday 17th September

Well, what a party, what a show! You can tell it was good- we rolled home at 3am.. I got up at 10am!

I'm feeling a bit hungover so be gentle with me.My head feels awful and my insides feel like I've eaten ten packs of pot noodles.

I know I'm biased but I think my sister's production of One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest was brilliant! And The Times agrees this morning

Really powerful performances from Christian Slater and Mackensie Crook. Four standing ovations showed what the audience thought of it.

It looks like the show will be packed from now on - my sister looks like she's going to make a few quid on this one.

She is very wealthy (multi millions) and like me likes taking a gamble - but her thing is backing theatrical shows. Sometimes she loses, but often she wins big as in this case.

So forget about your Bollinger bands and macd and moving averages and all that other rubbish and go and see the show one night! It's on at the Gielgud Theatre.

The after show party at Teatro was just amazing. Full of stars and the people you see on the telly.

Flashlights popped as we walked in though strangely they didn't take a picture of me - don't they know who I am???!!

Anyway, sadly most of the really juicy gossip I can't tell you - and boy, I know enough know to make a lot of money by selling stories to the tabloids but I'm not going to.

But I can say Christian Slater took the lead role at karaoke and what a great singer he is - belted out some Frank Sinatra numbers as if he was born to it.

Tamsin Outwaite (is that how you spell it?) gave a good performance of "It's In His Kiss". Worst karaoke performance from comedian Jeff Green who was probably too pissed to do much justice to Motorhead's "Ace of Spades". Funny though.

The most surprising thing was the number of people who knew the Mrs and me from the cafe! I didn't realise we had so many celebrity clients but that's because I don't watch much TV so don't recognise them. And two of our customers are girlfriends of two of the stars!

Mrs FT did well considering she's now 31 weeks pregnant to last till 3am! I wish I could tell you more but it would be betraying confidences. so I'll leave it there.

Anyway isn't this supposed to be a site about shares??

As I didn't rise till late and I'm too hungover to do any serious trading I've had a quick look and then I'm probably heading back to bed!

The Investors Chronicle seem to take an interest in my picks! They've tipped another two of my shares, Havelock Europa and Vanco!

Both are of course up today and while tempting to take profits and sell into strength both have a long way to go.

Some very decent buys going into Havelock Europa and at this rate my initial target is going to look very conservative. Results are out on the 28th September and if they're good we could see more fireworks. Burren Energy is storming ahead at last ahead of results next week.

Thursday 16th September

Well, tonight I am out on the town with the stars of London theatre! I'm off to the opening night of 'One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest' which stars Christian Slater and Mackenzie Crook (the guy from The Office).

My sister, who's producing the show, has also got us invites for the after show party in Soho. I'm looking forwards to meeting Christian Slater - according to my sister he is great fun. She also tells me the after show party is going to include dancing and karaoke.

So if I get drunk enough I intend to belt out my version of Britney Spears' classic track "Toxic". I'll tell you all the juicy gossip in tomorrow's update!

Trading is one continuous learning curve, and most new traders focus on the technical bells and whistles at the expense of trading psychology.

I recall losing a lot of money before really addressing the personal and emotional issues of trading, after which I realised I had only been gambling.

To become a successful trader there are a great many personal and emotional issues to sort out for yourself, including taking losses and trusting yourself to take them when your trading plan calls upon you to do so.

There is little doubt there are similarities between the trading and gambling, and it is important that each trader rationalises and defines the difference for themselves.

Whilst most trading books address the issue and offer some very sophisticated arguments which attempt to draw a distinction, quite often such arguments whilst well conceived and presented, are only relevant to the author, because the newbie trader is not ready to take onboard their real significance and importance.

I believe when they are ready they make their own distinction which then becomes non negotiable and truly meaningful to them.

I fear this is likely to always be the case for newbies to the business until they earnestly realise the need to study the psychology involved.

Right, onto the markets and things are quiet today - almost like an early August day! Burren Energy is trying really hard to clear the 362 level - results are due soon and if good this could be ready for take off.

Havelock Europa is around the 125p breakout territory. Looks like it could head to 130p but I think results due at the end of the month will see it really shift higher.

The market-makers are trying to tree-shake investors by dropping the price at the moment but I reckon they'll need some shares on results day! Bskyb continues to look a good upbet as does Cattles.

Vanco is on the way back up - I like the way it's going up 3p a day - much better than a big rise as it's more likely to be sustained.

Telecom Plus looks like it's run out of profit takers and another attempt at 300p looks likely.

Wendesday 15th September

Talking of psychology I settled down in the bath last night to read the newly published "Stock Futures" by Alpesh Patel and Aranca.

To be honest after reading a few pages about MACD's, SAR's and the really exciting "Stochastic crossovers" I was half asleep.

But then I have a low attention span and I simply can't be bothered with the nuts and bolts of technical analysis.

Anyhow have you ever met or heard of a rich technical analyst? No - nor me, only ones that want your money!

Anyway I was just about to write this book off as not one for me. It looked good for those really into short-term trading using futures which is not my game.

But as I was about to shut the book I suddenly came across something I was surprised to find: some very interesting chapters on risk and money management - and market psychology which does interest me.

My attention was grabbed and I found it fascinating. There are some good quotes and advice from top traders.

There's also a good look at why 90% or more traders lose money and then quit. As one expert rightly says: "You have to be very, very honest with yourself. The single biggest thing is to have a goal for every trade you make."

And also mentioned is something I bang on about - you have to trade with uncommitted funds - if you are playing with money that should be paying for things like school fees or the mortgage you are more likely to lose.

There's also some good stuff on finding the trading style that's right for you. So there you are - skip the first few chapters and read the back end of this book for an excellent read.

Right, onto the markets and things still looking pretty good. You might remember I bought Havelock Europa recently at 95p and sold out at 117.5 to take a healthy profit.

I wasn't intending to get back in so quickly but I saw some buys going in this morning and the mm's raising the price to 119-121p.

I had another good look at the company and it simply has "these shares are still cheap" written all over it!

A market cap of only £40m on a growing company with profits of over £4 million already with more to come from acquisitions! That has got to be cheap!

This makes the PE of just 10 cheap too. Compare that to Serco's pe of 18 in the same sector and you can see what I mean.

I also expect results to be excellent when they are announced later this month so I've plunged in. I bought 6,000 shares in Havelock (HVE) at 120.45p. New stop loss is 110p, target now 145p.

Everything else looks good today with the portfolio continuing to zoom up - glad I kept my faith and patience in the companies I like!

Vanco is going up again - I think 300p looks a certainty in the next few weeks. By the way if any of you want me to ask any questions of Vanco's management when I visit at the end of the month do let me know.

In particular I'll be asking about the company's debt and how it manages it. It seems to have an innovative way of financing its customers needs and I'll get the answers on that I hope. But send me the questions and I'll try and get the answers!

Recent buy Cattles is storming up today and looks like I'll get my target price! Telecom Plus made a valiant effort to get above 300p again but those who bought at 250p are taking a few profits - but I suspect another effort to get there will succeed soon enough.

What can I say about Dignity? My buy at 251 looks better and better all the time and it looks set to conquer the 300p level - great business, great share!

Alumasc is holding nicely at higher levels before I suspect a push up towards 200p - another great company withy a good looking future.

Tuesday 14th September

Well. Just ten weeks to go now before my life changes and hopefully this time we get a live bouncing baby.

This time everything looks positive and the date of birth should be around November 25th. So I guess updates around the end of November will be a bit erratic.

And updates in December will probably be short and grumpy due to lack of sleep! But make the most of it now.

I've had a few mails asking whether the site and my Times columns will carry on once the baby is born.

Well, I don't see why not. I have thought about quitting in the past but I've enjoyed writing the site a lot this year so I expect to continue.

Regarding my Times columns, I don't know! It's coming up to the 2 year anniversary of the start of the SIPP column so the editors might decide to call it a day.

They usually give these things 2 or 3 years and then move on to something else. They don't get any feedback on my column as far as I know, but we'll see.

Well, what can I say except the market feels like 1999 all over again - the portfolio is simply surging like crazy!

Over the last three weeks a number of shares I hold have simply rocketed and when all is added up I'm up over £10,000.

Star of the day goes to Telecom Plus which is still rising sharply. Funnily enough I was on the phone to Cantor rolling over some positions this morning and in the background I heard someone buying Telecom Plus on a spread.

The shares should certainly be worth between 300 and 350 for the moment and they were ludicrously undervalued at 250.

Some big announcements are due on October 17th when I gather some exciting new news will really help independent distributors to kick start their businesses.

Remember I am a distributor and will happily take you on as a distributor! Earn extra money or turn it into a profitable business earning you residual income - forget about a pension, this is the real deal. E-mail me if you want details.

Alumasc roared higher yesterday and is holding onto most of the gains today. Looks like the market makers are short of stock and are trying to get shares by lowering the price a bit. It isn't working as there are no sellers around.

I expect Alumasc to head over 200p quite quickly - the shares go ex dividend on October 8th and the dividend gets paid out at the end of October.

Vanco announced a decent set of results today which sees the shares higher. A broker note I've seen gives a buy rating and an initial target of 300p.

The company's turnover and profits are soaring and they are winning contracts all over the place. I'll find out more when I visit Vanco at the end of the month.

In any event 300p seems a realistic short-term target. I suspect shorters will be getting out sharpish if they haven't already. (Take note, Mr Evil!)

White Young Green rose dramatically yesterday and some more today, It is right on the verge of a very big breakout in the 220p area.

If it can lift above, 240p beckons quicktime - results are due Sept 28th and are expected to be rather good.

Some of my spread bets are due to expire today - I can either let them expire and take profits and losses or roll over.

I expect to hang onto Cairn, Burren, Dignity, Cattles, BskyB and Fenner - and possibly Punch. I may let the others expire, not quite decided yet but I'll update you on this tomorrow.

A couple of you have e-mailed me regarding a book about E-Bay which was published last month. Here are the details. It is called The E-Bay book by David Belbin.

It's a great guide to how to buy and sell and I've used it to some success already.

Plenty of European football this week with live matches Monday to Thursday. Also golf fans won't need reminding of the Ryder Cup beginning this Friday.

Monday 13th September

Saw a great movie over the weekend "Super Size Me". Actually it's more of a documentary - about a bloke who eats nothing but McDonalds for 30 days.

He ends up nearly 2 stone heavier and with a doctor saying he could die if he carried on much longer! It's all very entertaining and it'll make you think twice before eating junk food again.

The most sinister part of the movie highlighted 'big businesses' attempt to ensure kids get addicted to junk food from an early age. Of course what they are really getting addicted to is salt and sugar.

Only 30% of US kids recognised a picture of George Bush - but 100% could name the clown Ronald McDonald!

It looks like out of the blue I could shortly be the owner of two cafes rather than one! The nearest rival to mine went bust last week.

It's on the other side of the tube and I've wanted to buy them out for ages. I would have felt sorry for them but they tried to copy my format and failed!

The fact is I put an awful lot of hard work into the café business to make it successful and they were too lazy to do it.

If you start a business you have got to put in the work! It's not like having a cushy office job where you e-mail your pals all day!

Anyhow I can't afford to let the premises go to anyone else so I'm at the moment chasing estate agents all over the shop to try and contact the landlord ASAP !

Looks like this could be a two café business by the end of the year.. I'll let you know how I get on!

Another fab day for the portfolio with lots of risers as the market continues to look strong.

Telecom Plus continues its excellent push back up towards 300p. This seems a fair price for the shares at the very least. Of course some margins have been eroded but customer numbers continue to look good (the ones I have access to anyway).

White Young Green at last is moving after a period of no moves. Results are on the way and buying interest is coming in.

I feel confident of a strong move higher towards 250p in the next few weeks - this is an overlooked and undervalued share.

A director of Alumasc has bought a very big whack of shares in the company - this looks a bullish sign! I think the current price is going to look like a bargain soon!

I now pass on a message I got from the PR for the firm today - of course it is PR so I do take it with a pinch of salt.. nevertheless.

"I am delighted to see that you have followed up investments in two of my clients - Carr's Milling Industries and Havelock Europa - with an investment in a third - Alumasc.

I think your logic is spot on. With both Williams de Broe and KBC Peel Hunt proposing to increase their estimates for the current year, Alumasc is standing on a prospective PE of under 10 and a secure prospective dividend yield of 6%.

As usual, there is little or no debt, which gives scope for further acquisitions in the building products division which, increasingly, is the engine of profit growth.

John McCall (Chairman), an intelligent and careful Scot, and Paul Hooper (Chief Executive), who succeeded John in running the business on a day to day basis about three years ago, are, I think, a good combination.

It is also, I think, a good sign that, some time ago, Philip Gwyn, a non-executive Director, materially increased his holding."

So there you are - up 1p today so far and I think 200p is on the cards quite soon

I think my two favourite shares must be Dignity and Sondex. Both up again today and they both seem to go up a bit a day. Which is very nice.

My upbet in BskyB looks timed to perfection! I made more than £1,000 when the share collapsed and now I'm making a decent amount on the way back up.. if only this could be done with every share!

One thing I'm sorting out this week is my shorts! I really should have taken profits on these a couple of weeks ago instead of holding on.

In fact spread betting is something I need to get a better grip on and remember spread bets should be short term only!

Still actually it's all not too bad - the only one I'm hurting on is Punch. Some bets are due to expire tomorrow so I suspect I will have a clear out.

Plenty of European football this week with live matches Monday to Thursday. Also golf fans won't need reminding of the Ryder Cup beginning this Friday.

Friday 10th September

Welcome to new readers joining the site this weekend from the link to my Sunday Times column.

The site is updated every weekday lunchtime with market views, my buys and sells, a look at sports betting, books, some special offers and some ramblings.

A lazy morning for me after a busy week - I've been lazing in the garden in the sun listening to some music. Well, if you can't chill out after quitting the rat race what's the point of it all?

I can hardly believe it but stores have already got the Xmas decorations in! Reader Graham writes:

"Just read your 2nd Sept posting. We stayed in a hotel in Altrincham, Manchester on 25th July which had a Christmas Tree facing you as you went in the door, and tinsel all round the reception area!

Apparently it was to encourage you to book your Christmas night out there. It didn't work on us. But then we live in Aberdeen..."

Any other pathetic sightings of Christmas promotions, do mail in!

I think there ought to be a law: shops should be banned from carrying any Xmas items until November 25th.

So the week ends on another bright note - the portfolio has added a substantial amount over the last fortnight.

After some hectic trading this week I've taken no action so far today.

Both this week's buys are going well - Alumasc is holding at higher levels and I'm confident this one will go to at least 200p in due course. A cracking set of results.

Mouchel Parkman is also holding well and it looks like something good is about to happen!

Sondex is attracting yet more buyers and is on the verge of a big breakout that could see it 20 or 30 points higher quite quickly.

There is a persistent buyer of Telecom Plus shares who is prepared to pay over the odds on every buy.

The recent downtrend in TP shares looks about to be broken especially if it can break up to the 300 level. The shares are being persistently bought today and are surging higher as I write.

My two oil plays Burren and Cairn continue to look like winners. Burren is being a little frustrating but results are due soon and a good set could see Burren race up over 400p.

White Young Green announces results soon - I suspect the shares will start to move next week and there is no reason why these results should not be good.

Thursday 09th September

I'm about to get really stupid! Apparently as soon as you have a child your IQ goes down by about 20 points and you start losing your intelligence. So with a baby due on November 25th I'd better trade as much as I can till then.

I see the BBC continues to throw our money away. £3.5 million on Graham Norton for some puerile Saturday night show.. purleeese! I have three points to make to the BBC:

1- There are hundreds of channels, we don't need crappy Saturday night shows anymore.

2 - Some gay bloke going "ooh missus" etc. is sooo over!!

3- Please spend the money on decent drama and stop competing for ratings with ITV!

Right, onto the markets - they must be due for a tumble surely? You just don't get rises every day without some falls!

I made one trade - yesterday afternoon and it was something I haven't done for a while.. a kind of gut feeling trade.

I noticed market-makers were shifting up the price of Mouchel Parkman (MCHL). I know I like this company and its potential and it had been sitting for weeks doing nothing.

Taking the vague view that "something is going on!" I bought some on the spreads for £25 a point at 211p. Target 240p, stop loss 203p.

This proved a good move the shares continued to go up and again this morning they have motored up another nine pence.

But I realised right after I'd done it it was a mistake to buy on the spreads I should have bought in the markets.

The reason for that is, the extra spread for share like this using spread betting is quite large and I could have got within the spread if I'd bought normally.

But never mind - I think my "vague" buy will see me in profit. We'll see. I'm looking very short-term on this one.

Yesterday's buy Alumasc is going well - the results were good and there is some good buying going on on the back of them.

The market-makers look short of stock too so my hope of a nice ride up to the 200p area looks on the cards. It goes ex-dividend soon so there's also a nice dividend to come.

Sondex and Costain look like they are trying to go a bit higher. Telecom Plus continues to rise and attract new buyers.

My shorts haven't done too badly considering the big rise in the markets. However my short on Punch looks badly timed.

I should have got out ages ago and certainly at stop loss levels. The price rose quite fast and left me behind. No excuses - just rubbish and undisciplined trading on my part.

A nice dividend cheque from Fenner today - amazing how dividends add up! Currently on my SIPP, dividend payouts outstrip costs by £400.

This is probably a good way to look at dividends. If they pay for your costs, that is perfect! Anything more is a bonus!

Wendesday 08th September

Today ended up being an extremely busy day on the trading front. It started off quite spookily.

I really liked the look of the results today of a company I doubt you've ever heard of - it's got an impossible to say name.. Alumasc (ALU). Not exactly an investor friendly name like Tadpole is it?

Anyhow, I'd had the shares on a possible buy list for a while and with the results so promising I put in an order to buy 3,700 shares and I sat back to wait and see the price I'd get.

The phone rang - it was a friend of mine, David Schwartz, the stock market historian. Unbelievably he said:

"I've just bought some shares in a company called Alumasc, have you seen the report, it looks really good!"

I said: "I don't believe this - I've literally just this second put in an order for some shares."

We both thought this was quite amazing coincidence but decided it was just probably great minds thinking alike! David is a shrewd investor so it mad me feel even happier that I'd bought the shares.

So, I got 3,700 shares at 148p. Stop loss 135p, target 195p. I noticed quite soon afterwards a huge 100,000 market maker buy - someone out there thinks there is going to be a big demand for ALU.

I suspect some broker buy notes are on the way and this looks a brilliant medium-term share with good prospects of a 20% gain plus a dividend which gets paid next month.

I could bore you all with why I bought it, but quite honestly I think this report can explain better. Click here to read today's report - read it and see why I bought!

As well as profits and dividends up, I like the way it is cleverly buying up other small companies which should see its profits continue to rise.

Right, more trades today!

I sold my 5,000 shares that I'd bought at 95p in Havelock Europa at 117.5 for a very decent profit of £1,125.

I still think this fab company has a long way to go but I just think a quick dip to the 111p area is likely before it moves up again and I expect to be in again soon. It's also nice to actually bank a profit!

I also sold my Netstore shares at 34p for a small loss of £153. It's quite unusual for me to sell shares just a few days after buying and it probably sounds weird because I think it's a company with a future and I don't think the shares will drop.

There's only one reason - a line from a positive broker report which said the company is likely to move to an AIM listing rather than a full one.

As I can't hold AIM stock in my portfolio I've decided to sell now and get it over with rather than holding shares I know I will have to sell anyway.

Also in my experience a move to AIM often means a company's shares don't rise much short-term as Isa and Pep holders have to sell.

I suspect the shares may even move up a bit in the next few days - it's the kind of share Shares Mag likes to tip so I would not be surprised to see them tipping it tomorrow. But as I said - I may as well move on now.

Er, and that's it for trading today! But it's been another fab day for the portfolio. Both Vanco and Telecom Plus continue to rally and show really good gains.

I've decided to accept Vanco's invite and will be visiting the company in three weeks time - quite looking forward to it and I'll report back my findings!

An excellent statement from Helphire today sees the shares higher - they could start to burst upwards now. 600 Group continues is rapid climb and a move above 70p would make it look very bullish.

What can I say about Dignity? What a lovely share, moves up one or two pence a day come rain or shine - what more does a shareholder want?

BskyB looks good again and my buy looks well timed. Get Group also continues its recovery and its move back above 200p looks significant.

VP went ex dividend today so the fall is only due to that. However you can see people selling because they think it is simply falling!! Always check your ex dividend dates!

Thanks to another "Curb Your Enthusiasm" fan Stephen for writing to me:

"Well done on bigging up 'Curb your enthusiasm' which is a cracking show. More plot strands in one episode than a series of 'My Hero'.

Tuesday 07th September

In response to my comment yesterday: "I see the Royal Mail is now selling insurance. I am sure I speak for all of us when I say this: JUST DELIVER OUR F****** MAIL ON TIME! Once Royal Mail can manage to do the job its supposed to do, then it can branch out.

I received this e-mail:

'Yes Robbie, but speaking as an ex- postman, and I know you don't intend this, through lack of effort from the boys ( and gals ) on the front line, who are all, for the most part, extremely hard working.

The problem exists much higher up the ladder, and the service is a shambles, primarily for starters, they wish to continually grow the business but not proportionately grow the staff working for them - that would cost too much.

They wish to attract big business eg. Readers Digest etc. who bulk post extremely large quantities, then lump it all together on the delivery side, and basically everything has the same priority, first and second class mail included. I

If you're lucky you can expect three days maximum training on a delivery round, and if your fortunate to have a van, 500 houses + new developments Mon - Sat, hail, rain, snow or blow! So you can begin to see the Postmans lot is a pretty sad one'.

Thanks!

I think that's fair comment and as in many organisations, the rot does start nearer the top with lazy management.

So I'm not blaming the foot soldiers as such. More the management - they need to get a grip on the mail fast - it simply gets worse and worse!

After my go at Shares Magazine and what I consider unfair use of mid prices to boost tipping performance (the same with all other tipsters) I've had a mail from Malik - it's a similar theme but a different industry and I thought it was worth passing on.

"I have been going through the best buy tables for mortgages but keep finding false best buys. I normally advise people on which mortgage to take out as I worked in mortgages for many years previously.

You would think that best buys are worked out including all fees in advance before appearing in the tables and misleading people.

An example - this week I have sent two people to the Nationwide Building society for fixed rate deals 5.19% fixed for 2 years the full deal and costs listed below for a remortgage.

Nationwide 5.19% fix for two years no extended tie in period additional fees:
£349 arrangement fee, valuation free, legal fees paid.

So for a typical remortage, repayment mortgage of £100,000 over 25 years your monthly repayments are £595.71 interest calculated monthly.

In the best buy tables Lambeth comes out on top with a rate of 4.85% fixed for two years which gives you a monthly mortgage based on figures above of £575.88 per month that sounds great a saving of 19.83 per month until you add in all the rest Lambeth adds on and fails to list in the table:

£99 application fee £395 product fee £140 valuation fee £300 solicitor fee

A whopping total of £934 in charges so in real affect the £349 the nationwide charges adds another £14.54 per month to the mortgage to recoup bringing the total to £595.71 + £14.54 grand total £610.25 per month over two years.

If you look at the Lambeth deal it works out £575.88 + £38.91 (that's the fees £934 divide by 24 months ) grand total in real terms £614.79 over two years which means the nationwide is £4.54 a month cheaper a total saving of 108.96 over two years.

I have to explain to my friends and clients that taking on a 5.19% 2 year fix is cheaper than a 4.85% 2 year fix some just don't get it, but it's a good job they take my advice after doing all calculations for them

I personally think the best buy tables should be calculated with fees included in so the sneaky buggers cant get in and claim to be the best when some are not, misleading us poor consumers.

Ta, Malik and I have to agree.

The trouble is statistics are so easily manipulated and there is no body which really checks these things properly and it's us consumers that end up confused!

You just try finding out the rate per kw/h for gas and electricity from the various energy companies!

The markets continue in good shape. Biggest winner of the day is Vanco - I'm not certain why it's rising so fast today - could be shorters closing out at last as it's near quarterly share expiry.

Lets of good contract wins have been announced and I've always been confident of a return to the 300p mark. I'll be visiting the company at the end of September and I'll let you all know what I found!

Telecom Plus continues to rally after the recent Investors Chronicle recommendation. I expect the company to officially change its name to Utilities Warehouse soon which I think would now be a good move. 600 Group continues to improve after its recent weakness.

I see a few of my old friends may be buys again soon - Retail Decisions and Thus are both looking strong again! RTD has announced a contract win with M&S and Thus director has bought shares. Maybe I need a little more convincing but they are on my radar!

Monday 06th September

That was a great weekend!The Mrs held an afternoon birthday tea party at the Berkeley Hotel in London.

They did her proud. An excellent day was had by all - we had a great outside space and we all enjoyed the great weather.

My big sister came - she spent most of the time clamped to the phone - she's directing the theatre production of One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest which debuts in the West End this week with Christian Slater who I hope to have the pleasure of meeting at the opening night.

Apparently he is tremendous in the lead role and the play is hot despite a few production problems. Then we went to the Hard Rock Café for the evening which was great fun.

Sunday was spent at the hotel, then a wander round London's parks and we ended up getting home late on Sunday!

Everything with the baby's going well for now, thank you all for asking.

I see the Royal Mail is now selling insurance. I am sure I speak for all of us when I say this:

JUST DELIVER OUR F****** MAIL ON TIME! Once Royal Mail can manage to do the job it's supposed to do, then it can branch out!

The markets continue to surprise me - I keep expecting a downturn but it keeps going up.But with the US closed today I don't expect that much action.

A few small gains across the portfolio today. Vanco's up on another contract win. Also Sondex, 600 Group and Dignity are up a bit.

Burren is tantalisingly on the edge of breaking through 362p but hasn't quite done it yet. Cattles continues its climb higher as does soon to be FTSE 100 company Cairn.

So all in all a pretty pleasing day. Netstore reported a swing into profits today. The statement seemed confident enough and the shares look cheap at a market cap of just over £30m.

I suppose it all now depends on whether any institutions can be attracted on board - so far one broker has put in an "add" recommendation.

I think I'll hold onto these for a bit and see what happens - I can't see why the shares should be rated much lower than they are now so they look safe enough. We'll see what brokers and others make of the results soon enough.

Friday 03rd September

The best TV comedy ever has been bought by E4. After BBC4 (not watched by anyone) wasted the first two series.

If you missed the first episode of the new series of "Curb Your Enthusiasm" last night, set your video to record it at 12.15am in the early hours of Monday morning.

It's simply comedy genius. No irritating laughter track so stupid "double entendres". Just brilliant writing and performing by Larry David, who created Seinfeld.

Of course the TV schedulers can't cope with something that's aimed at the intelligent and they're too scared to schedule it in peak time in case people "don't get it".

So just trust me - it's on every Thursday at 11.10pm on E4. The first series is out on DVD.

My café had a record day yesterday. Must be because I was there most of the time being horrible to the staff. I mean motivating my staff.

So where to next for the markets? Bit of a cliff hanger as I write - is this a pause before a big rise - or the calm before the storm of a big fall? Wish I knew for sure!

Anyway, two trades today - a sell and a buy! First the buy and that's 18,000 shares at 34.85p in Netstore (NES). Why did I buy?

Well, I liked the look of the company earlier this year and kept it on my watch list. It's been sitting for quite a while not doing much.

However I noticed two things today. first a big buy of 300,000 going in at around 11am this morning.

And secondly it's due to report soon and I'm taking a gamble judged on previous reports that it'll be a good one.

The company has won a few decent contracts, its market cap is low and if things are going well, it looks cheap.

This one is not without risks - these kinds of companies could always surprise with a warning but I think the risk/reward ratio looks good, and I'm hoping for a 20% increase. Stop loss is 30p, target 43p.

I sold half my Serco play. That is I sold my 3,000 shares at 214p as they came close to the target figure - but I have stayed in a spread bet long on Serco in case there is more to come (and there could be). I guess I'm just hedging in case the markets fall from here.

I bought at 189 with the intention of selling around 215-220 and this is near enough - but keeping my spread bet open means I can still take advantage if the price continues to rise. Profits from this trade work out at £733, not bad for a few days!

Thanks to e-mailers informing me Telecom Plus and Sondex were tipped by the Investors Chronicle today.

My newsagent says my copy is "still at the warehouse" so I'll have to wait till tomorrow to see what was written about the companies. However both are nicely higher following the tips.

Burren is beginning to look exciting again as it edges up to the important 360 resistance point. A break through today or Monday could see significant rises.

Havelock Europa rose well yesterday - I'm glad I stuck with it and I think another attempt at 130p is on the cards. Cattles looks good now settled nicely at higher levels.

Thursday 02nd September

It's Elizabeth's birthday today so happy birthday to you! So she has to have the day off today so I'm in charge of the cafe which means the whole place will go to pot today!

People asking for coffee will probably end up with hot chocolates and those wanting shepherds pie will get fish pie! I resent having to do real work these days but I suppose I have to occasionally !

People always ask me about brokers - I use E-Trade and Com Direct. I always get good mail about Com Direct. As they seem a great company I've been trying to persuade them to do a special offer for readers.

They have agreed! ComDirect have a very fair charging structure which is £12-50 a deal - and none of those hidden charges you get elsewhere like inactivity fees.

So anyway the deal is if you open an account with Comdirect through my site you get your first four trades free via a cashback of £50. This is an exclusive offer to readers of my site only.

So if you're looking for an extra account or want to give the company a try now is your chance!
To apply for the offer Click here

The market continues to surprise me with its strength and now I wish I could go back in time and close out my shorts!

Although actually they are still doing ok! I still have a FTSE short open so need to close out quick if it goes any higher! Looks like it's on the cusp of either going a lot higher or retreating.

Good news from Serco has sent the price soaring up close to where I wanted to take profits at 220p.

I'm pleased as it did look a cracking buy at 190p. It's good to have a plan and see it actually work out!

Cattles also has been good to me - bought a few days ago for 310 it's now heading towards 330p.

Burren looks strong today - it needs to get through 360p to motor to 400p but I'm expecting this to happen anytime.

Get Group has shot up 6p - I'm glad as I still can't understand its quite lowly rating, I've felt for a while a fairer price is 250p rather than 200p - we will see. I have seen it motor higher fast and I'm hoping history will repeat itself.

I still feel wary of stepping in with more buys for right now (even though I'm meant to be a frequent trader). But patience has paid off for me this year and I'd rather run the winners for the time being, apologies if that's a bit boring!!

Wendesday 01st September

So, it's September and time to think about Christmas! Oh yes, decorations and cards are in your shop! Ho, ho, ho!

I had a right laugh on the bank holiday - I was clearing out some stuff, as you do, and came across some old copies of Investors Chronicle and Shares Magazine from early 2000.

Remember those days? Ah, those lovely days when you could buy a share for 40p and see it soar to a tenner for no reason at all.

Looking back at these mags is a scream and a reminder that analysts and tipsters nearly all talk crap!

In the May editions as tech stocks started to go down, tipsters and brokers were all urging punters to "Buy on weakness".

I'm taking BT trading at 1100p! Bskyb at 1700p! Arm 716p! And the king of the lot Baltimore at.. 7610p!!!

How about this on Thus from Shares Mag "Goldman Sachs reiterates its buy stand on Thus at 340p. Goldman's target price is 700p"

At this time Thus was still a loss maker and the PE was. 3,200! Share price now? 15p!

Remember Energis which went bust? Its share price was 2964p despite the fact it was losing money.

What on earth was going on? And why didn't we just short the lot of them and make our millions? I can't remember except I know I bought some of these dud shares.

I was lucky though - on a whim I bought £20,000 of Scoot.com at 50p and sold at 220p for a massive profit!

Of course I made some losses as well but I came out of the ridiculous tech boom with a profit of around £60,000 all made tax free in peps.

The magazines tip all kind of rubbish and the tipsters and analysts can't seem to realize these companies were worth nothing at all in some cases.

Oh well, enjoyed that trip down memory lane! Back to 2004 where life is a bit more tricky! Some good gains for my lot today.

Costain has put out a decent statement, I'm surprised it's not up more on some bumper buying but it looks like one of the market makers has got quite a bit of stock.

Cattles that I bought just a few days ago at 310p is really motoring now and has zoomed up to 328p, looks like my target may be met quicker than I thought.

600 Group continues its recovery. Serco has convincingly gone over 200p today and is storming higher awaiting results.

I'm not buying anything right now as I'm wondering whether the market is peaking at the moment.

But the FTSE is close to a major breakout in the 4500 area and what happens in the US this afternoon will be crucial.

Tuesday 31sh August

Well, that's a nice welcome back from holidays isn't it, a falling market! Hallo to you if you've been away over August.

So onto the markets today - and it's still a bit quiet.

Burren and Cairn my two oil plays continue to produce the goods! Burren reports in September and I feel the report will help lift the shares over 400p.

Not mentioned Costain for a while as it's done bugger all! However the Mail on Sunday reckons on a good statement tomorrow - could be interesting!

Get Group is on the up again. I feel certain this one is undervalued. Still no-one else seems to share my view.

Serco is due to report this week and that should help push the price one way or another. 600 Group looks to have formed a strong bottom and I would expect a rise back up to 70p now the seller is out of the way.

With the bank holiday here I need a rest and I don't intend to buy or sell anything today!

Friday 28th August

First a warm welcome to Sunday Times readers joining the site for the first time from the link in the paper.

The site gets updated around lunchtime every weekday with any buys and sells and also a few strange ramblings and special offers.

Thanks for all your kind words on my toothache problem. I'm using a gel until I get to see the dentist next week!

Do you get the feeling I'm going to become very unpopular in some quarters? Oh well, I'm a big boy now (ask Mrs FT) and I can cope!

So onto the markets today - a quiet week that sees shares in a bit of an uptrend. It's pretty obvious I should have taken profits on my shorts - however I do feel that this uptrend hasn't got much more legs so I'll stick with them.

Burren and Cairn my two oil plays continue to produce the goods! Burren reports in September and I feel the report will help lift the shares over 200p. Get Group is on the up again - about time, I feel certain this one is undervalued.

Interesting market-maker tree-shaking at 600 Group this morning - the shake did not work on me and I'm holding tight! VP Group looks like it's about to start another leg up.

Dignity continues to go up every day and has really been a brilliant buy - some big trades going in today and it looks set for a lunge at 300p.

Serco is as I write excitingly above 200p again and I think it could motor now. A couple of broker buy notes on this one out today. Punch Taverns is starting its downward slide again which is good news!

With the bank holiday here I need a rest and I don't intend to buy or sell anything today! And on that note one reader mailed me to say I'm not trading enough!

I take that as a compliment. Overtrading or trading just for the sake of it usually leads to investors losing money! Never trade anything out of boredom, I say!

Thursday 27th August

I can't say I'm in a good mood today! Six weeks after being drilled and had a crown put in (cost £720!) I've got toothache from that tooth. It kept me up most of the night.

My dentist is on holiday so I have to wait till next week to get seen. If it carries on like this I'm going to have a crap bank holiday weekend. Oh well, part of the fun of doing this site is being able to have a moan. Thanks for listening.

Thanks for all your kind e-mails wishing all the best over the next few days as we worry about the baby surviving. It's kicking like crazy so we think we have a good chance this time round!

Andy from Vanco tells me the dates mentioned yesterday for shareholders who want a look round and a chat to management were incorrect.

They are: Tuesday 28 and Wednesday 29 September. Vanco shareholders can contact Andy at Andy.brown@vanco.co.uk. to book themselves in for the "open day".

Another pretty quiet bank holiday market session. Cattles reported excellent results today although there's nothing much doing with the share price.

However brokers are upgrading estimates and giving out buy advice so I expect Cattles to lift in the next few days.

Remember I thought the broker buy on Punch Taverns would only have an effect for two days?

Looks like this is the case as they are coming back. Still rate then as a short whatever the broker says!

Serco is agonisingly close to getting through the 200p barrier once it does I hope it flies up to 215p or so at which point I hope to take profits! A bit of shake out in Burren but I still think this share has a way to go.

My change from being short of Bskyb to long appears to have been a good move and I'm now in profit on the upside!

Dignity marches ever upwards. Otherwise it's extremely quiet and there's not a lot else to report!

While I was up with toothache last night I started re-reading an excellent book "The Investor's Guide to Charting by Alistair Blair.

A brilliant read for those of you interested in TA. And I love this:

"Should professional chartists be rich?

They should. And not from income in fees but profits earned by investing in their chosen markets. Either the rich practicing chartists are publicity shy or there aren't any."

"The first question anyone offered advice by a chartist is: And how rich are you?"

So if you're paying a chartist or have a chart "guru" you follow why not ask them how rich they are. I bet the answer is "not very!"

Food for thought!

Wendesday 25th August

Please accept apologies for the lateness of today's update, I understand Mr Burns is having some technical problems ( try switching on the plug Mr B !!!)

One of the questions I get asked most is: "How did your wife manage to secure a marriage to someone as dashingly handsome as yourself?."

Yeah right. Back to reality, the real question is: "Why is my share going down when there are so many buys going in?"

Did I hear it right that British Gas are going to put up prices by some 12%!! I'm feeling the chill already.

Maybe their customers could do with a 'Morse code breaker' to unravel the complex way they present their billing . . .unlike Telecom plus of course!" Quite! More on Gas and electricity rises later.

But for now. Tomorrow we get to the same stage in Elizabeth's pregnancy that she got to last time when the baby died.

She has to go for the same routine glucose check she went to last time when she discovered the bad news.

So she's a bit nervous. However this time we are armed with a baby heart monitor so we know he or she is still alive.

But I can tell you we will be very glad when the next 12 weeks are over and this time hopefully the baby comes out alive. Again, thanks for all your support.

Vanco has kindly invited me and any other shareholders to its bi-annual 'open-day' for investors. Andy Brown from Vanco tells me:

'The next ones are being held on Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 September. The times are 14.00-16.00 and 19.00-21.00 on the Tuesday and 10.00-12.00 and 14.00-16.00 on the Wednesday.

A letter was sent to all shareholders from our CEO last week and we are following up by email for all those we have details for.

The session will involve an hour presentation from our CEO and FD and then a tour around the HQ facilities by our CTO.

It's an excellent opportunity to get to know us a little better, ask direct questions to the management team and meet some of the staff involved in driving our industry leading business forward.

In effect we want to ensure that all our shareholders have the same opportunities to question, probe and understand our business, as the institutions have."

The company is based in Isleworth. I know Isleworth well. It's a grotty area on the way to Heathrow Airport from London! I had to travel there every day when I used to work for Sky. Still I'm tempted to go!

If you hold Vanco through a nominee account and fancy being able to chat to the management directly and find out all about the company you hold shares in.. then contact Andy at: Andy.brown@vanco.co.uk.

He will then send you the details of when you can go and how to get there. I think I will go along and report back. Wow! Proper research, where will this site go next!

What is there to say about the markets today except: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!!

There's nothing happening, investors and the market makers appear to have started the bank holiday weekend early and actually for the first time ever I can't find much to say!

Everything is pretty much unchanged and there's very little temptation out there to buy or short anything! So I'll probably spend the day working on the final few words of my book!

Tuesday 24th August

One fresh trade today - that's in Cattles (CTT). No, it's not a chain of farms. It's a moneylender which appears to be doing rather well.

It's a bit risky to buy now as results are due on Thursday but with the results likely to be good, both fundamentally and technically I'm looking for a short-term ten per cent. I bought at £20 a point at 310.2p with Cantor Index.

It's recently raised £500m which shows its backers are extremely confident. Management too looks sound.

Long-term I don't care but short-term I feel there will be some good news flow and some broker upgrades to lift the price. Stop loss is 290p, target 350p.

My recent short in Punch was looking good.... until a broker 're-iterated' a buy today which has pushed it up. I'm going to hold for longer as often the effect of these buy notes doesn't last long.

Some good gains for some of the portfolio today. Havelock Europa bounced strongly off 111p and looks good for another crack at 125p.

600 Group too bounced off 62p. It looks like a profit-taker is out of the way and it should regain the 70p level quickly. Fenner's recovery from a recent falls continues well.

Dignity has proved an excellent winning share and just keeps on going up, another 2p today and continues to look set for a ride up to 300p and maybe beyond.

The FTSE is struggling to get over 4420. There's a few interesting hours ahead. If it can't stick its neck out a fall to below 4400 again is likely.

Monday 23th August

Hope you all had a good weekend! Would you believe it, I had to do some real work. Due to staff "illness" (skiving more like) I had to work at my café making coffees and smoothies for punters for five hours on Saturday and Sunday. I am flipping exhausted. Real work is tough.

Pressing the odd buy and sell button is a whole lot easier. Anyway you can get to see part of my place on E4 tonight! More details at the end of this message. beep!

We had an appointment with the accountant this morning and signed off the café accounts - all is well, and we've made a good profit so well done the Mrs!

We celebrated with a cappuccino at Harvey Nichols (£3!!) and French Toast (£8!!). Still I guess it was a business meeting!

Due to my meeting today I haven't managed to have a serious look at anything today however it's obviously a good blue day for most shares.

Not quite so good for my shorts though! However they all remain in good profit and Punch Taverns, my most recent short continues its decline.

Fascinating to see whether the FTSE can break through this 4320-4330 area. If it can't it looks like it'll tip back under 4330 again otherwise we could easily see a leap up towards 4500.

Some good rises for my lot including Burren, Cairn, and Fenner - which continues its excellent rebound off 100p.

Serco is excitingly poised just below 200p - a break through that and my momentum play will look rather good!

One disappointment today is 600 Group down 4p. Not sure why but it's heading close to stop loss territory.

Friday 20th August

What is TV in this country coming to? I hardly watch it now as it's full of crap but had a quick flick round last night.

There was a choice between table tennis (!) a weary episode of Only Fools And Horses (never found that funny) some reality cobblers and one of those tedious "50 top programmes.."

Then flicking through BskyB's channels it's hundreds of channels of rubbish. I'm afraid our TV execs are completely talent free.

They're far more interested in nipping to the loos for a bit of the old powder than trying to make decent shows.

Where's our version of the brilliant Sopranos? Or Nip Tuck? Or Six Feet Under? Or Seinfeld?

The markets couldn't be better for me today! My shorts are going down and my buys are going up? What more could you want?

Vanco continues its big rise - and deservedly so - these shares have always been worth 300p. Most of the recent falls is due to that (words fail to adequately summarise here) "Evil Knievel" who shorted it because "someone told him to."

This is the bloke who bought 3DM, said it was going to £20. Lost a million on it then decided it was a short.

It then promptly doubles in value! He even got desperate enough to plaster the ADVFN bulletin boards with comments that the shares were worth 3p! If Vanco carries on rising he'll have to close and there will be one almighty rise!

It was tipped by the Investors Chronicle today - yesterday there was a broker's note advising a buy at levels that won't be seen again.

The broker reckoned like me 300p plus was a fairer value. I've been happy to hold though out the falls feeling confident it would rise again soon enough!

And thanks for all the e-mails letting me know about the tip and the broker's note! It's nice to see some of you enjoy it when I made a success of a trade.

I'm afraid us Brits are poor at compliments and are more happy criticizing. I do realize some people would be happy to see me come a cropper. I can understand I guess it's more entertaining than if I keep winning all the time.

There's one bulletin board bloke "Diogenes" who has this hilarious love hate thing about me (actually I think he might be in love with me!)

If I look at the BB of any share I hold you can guarantee there will be a shitty comment from him!

Like on the Vanco board he crows: "they keep falling and none of Robbie Burns' ramping can keep them up!"

Then in the same paragraph he adds: "I think they are cheap!" See what I mean about love hate!

Then if ADVFN plugs my column for them on the BB, you can guarantee something like: "Surprised he has time to write this as he's so busy ramping Telecom Plus!"

The even funnier thing is the guy obviously buys into some of my picks! And worse for him he never ever gets anyone to join him in criticizing me.

But I'm used to all this by now and really, if you run a site like mine you expect to get some critics - but I never mind now because I know from my e-mails that 99.9% of you enjoy the site. To the 0.1% who criticize my efforts: You are now banned!

Now where was I? Oh yes, I would like to ramp Telecom Plus! Some very big buying came in yesterday, I did wonder whether the big cheese has bought more shares - maybe we'll find out later today.

The shares do look set for a bit of a run. But I think it will be tough for them to get much higher than 300 until we get another statement from the company. It will be interesting to see how much the telecoms and energy margins have suffered.

Loads of my lot are up today. Fenner at last is going up. I must admit to a few worries when they hit 100 again. But that held well, and Fenner looks like it could motor up before the next results.

VP continues to rise! A penny or two a day will do me and it's exciting to see new buying coming in at these higher levels.

Sondex is starting to attract more buying. A push through 230 could see a quick 15p rise. And good old Dignity is stirring - a few good buys have pushed it up nearer the 300p mark.

Yesterday's short Punch Taverns is paying off and the share continues to look weak. A push down towards 420 looks inevitable unless the main market rockets.

Thursday 19th August

Before going into that one new trade to report - a spread short. That's £8 a point in Punch Taverns (PUB) at 445p - target 410p stop loss 460p. The pubs market is in dire straits. Punters are drinking at home more than in pubs now and the sector is in crisis.

Although Punch looks a well-run company that's not going to stop the shares going down towards the 400p mark quite quickly.

So, yes good gains today! My averaging down in GET Group has worked so far with the shares trying to get back over 200p.

VP continues to look an exciting stock - it's really broken up today and I feel a move up to at least over 170 and possibly up to near 200 where it would be fairly valued is on the cards.

Telecom Plus and Vanco are both shooting up as I write - I hope both these fine companies are now back on the way up.

Fears about both have been overdone recently and worries are all in the price now. Vanco is winning loads of contracts and fears over telephony and gas margins must surely easily be in Tep's price now.

Sondex is starting another move up - Aminex is on the move -and Serco is trying to push through 200p. So all in all I'm a happy bunny today!

Broke even on the York sps yesterday and bought them again today which means big priced winners will make me a nice profit. Last year there were two 33-1 winners so hoping for a repeat today!

Wendesday 18th August

Ever wondered what the café I own looks like? No, I thought not. Still, there might be the odd one among you that's curious. Well, you can get to see some of it on TV on Monday night!

My café is featured on E4 next Monday night at 10.30am during a show called "The Great Love Swindle". It's about five guys who have to try and get a girl to say "I love you".

They did the filming yesterday and it was all quite fun. Don't worry I made sure our menus were in full view. It also means I can do some new marketing! 'Manhattan Café'.. as featured on E4!

What a flipping hypocrite I am. There I am writing a book of which one of my golden rules is "Don't average down!"

Ie, don't buy more of a share you bought which has dropped a lot in the hope of getting your money back and maybe even making a profit.

What did I do yesterday afternoon? I broke my own rule and averaged down. Well, I guess it just shows I'm human and sometimes you break the rules, what the hell, eh! Break out and sod 'em! To be a little fairer to me I think it might be a good average down.

A while back I bought GET Group (GTG). Nice safe growing company I thought. Should go slowly higher.

Then I went to Miami and I was out of the market for a few days. When I got back the shares had slumped well below stop loss levels and I decided to hold on.

Just recently the shares have declined further. I've sat there reading the company reports and looking at the charts and I was puzzled.

The company has a great yield, low PE and seems well run. There is nothing to suggest it's in decline in any way.

Another thing struck me. The chart showed a very strong bounce level at 180p. And yesterday lunchtime the shares were down 6 points or so. And they were right on what I think is the bottom level for this company.

I could see others thinking the same thing and I could see buying coming in so I tool a deep breath and broke my rules buying a further 2,000 shares at 184p.

So far anyway it looks like a good move as the shares are up this morning already to 185-195.
Time will tell but Get looks worth nearer 250 than 180 to me. We shall see! Stop loss is 175, target 240.

My sale yesterday of XPP looks rubbish as it's bouncing up! Oh well, you have to make decisions and sometimes you get it wrong, dammit!

What's happening?

VP looks rather exciting as it looks on the verge of a major breakout - a bust through 158 and at least 170 looks on the cards but it may even be undervalued up to about 200.

Burren and Cairn both look exciting too and are also on the verge of big breakouts. And it's the same for Serco. So really I'm sitting on these willing them to go that one step higher!

My shorts are pulling in the profits today with most of them nicely down. You have to say though the FTSE is being very resilient and I wonder if it keeps bouncing off 4290 whether a rise could be on the cards in September as traders come back from their hols?

Tuesday 17th August

What a weird dream I had last night I was co-pilot of a new amazing fast passenger plane. The feeling of power was amazing as we took off and it was a very quick journey.

But after we landed we looked behind us and the plane had let off so much pollution that all the buildings behind us were black and Big Ben had caught fire! The mind is a strange thing!

By the way thanks for all recent e-mails asking how Elizabeth is getting in with her new pregnancy. (For new readers we suffered a tragedy last year when our baby died at 28 weeks).

All good so far, thanks though we are coming up to 28 weeks again so it's likely to be a stressful couple of weeks. She can feel a lot of movement this time so that's a good sign. I'll keep you all in touch.

So my forecast for the FTSE yesterday proved complete cobblers! However I still think we're in a downtrend and happy to still hold my FTSE short at 4418.

I took small losses in XP Power today and sold out at 400p (real trade 2,100 shares) for a loss of £312. This is a fine company but sadly when you see more than one director selling and one selling quite a lot, it's likely to depress the shares for a while.

I held on for a bit thinking they might bounce from 402, but it wasn't to be. However I do feel this is money purely lent and I expect to buy back the shares perhaps a bit lower.

The company is going places and produced a fine set of results. But the fact is you can't fight the market and for the moment the shares seem more likely to go lower than bounce.

A few bright spots in a quiet market. Helphire is beginning to nudge up - a nice company. Serco is still looking a good momentum trade.

My BskyB spread long is starting to look good - made a lot on this when it fell and hoping for more profit on the way up! My two oil plays Burren and Cairn continue to look strong.

Telecom Plus continues its slide. Can't be long now, before it looks good value with the dividend yield now nearly 4.5% and the pe now in the teens.

I still have one particular share on my radar to buy but still waiting for the right time to buy it!

Shorts still looking good and despite today's bounce I'll take a risk and carry on holding them. Close Brothers profit is very good now and I'm tempted to take those profits soon.

Still no response from Shares Magazine yet to my to my e-mail complaining about their self-congratulatory piece on their tipping claiming an outperformance based on percentages. (To read the letter I wrote them press "diary" above for Thursday's column).

The basis of it is they and all tip sheets use "Mid prices" to judge their performances. Of course real investors can't buy or sell at prices stated so my view is all performance stats are skewed in their favour and are simply not accurate. Prices should be real buy and real sell prices.

Monday 16th August

Is it just me or was that opening ceremony in Athens really boring? Sorry, but watching people wave at me for three hours isn't my idea of a good time. Maybe it was just me then.

And to be honest, I don't find the games that interesting either - reminds me of sports day at school where I was rubbish.

Brings back terrible memories of dropping the baton when we were in the lead in the relay. Still, apparently the women's beach volleyball is proving popular. Can't imagine why.

So another quiet start to the week as August continues to be extremely dull. The FTSE is up 15 as I write but I wonder whether there is any steam in this bounce.

I wonder whether 4315-20 will become a resistance point and whether the FTSE is set for a fall to 4200 before a massive bounce up.

Investors are watching rather than investing, probably because like me they have cash on the sidelines waiting to pounce on a big and real bounce that will no doubt occur right at the point when everyone feels at their most pessimistic!

Serco rose well later on Friday and I'm still hopeful of a quick rise over the 200p mark on what I hope will be a good short-term momentum trade.

VP has held onto Friday's gains so far which looks significant for a further upward move - still undervalued. Otherwise it's all deathly quiet today and there's not much to comment on.

My spreadbet account continues to look good with all my shorts still making an extremely nice profit.

Friday 13th August

First a warm welcome to new readers to the site from the link at the bottom of my Sunday Times column.

The site is updated every lunchtime with my views on the market any buys and sells I make plus some strange ramblings and a few special offers.

Not surprisingly, no reply yet from Shares Magazine to my e-mail yet complaining about their self-congratulatory piece on their tipping claiming an outperformance based on percentages. (To read the letter I wrote them press "diary" above for yesterday's column).

The basis of it is they and all tip sheets use "Mid prices" to judge their performances. Of course real investors can't buy or sell at prices stated so my view is all performance stats are skewed in their favour and are simply not accurate. Prices should be real buy and real sell prices.

Reader Peter says:

"I absolutely agree with your comments and the Red Hot Tips letter is even worse than Shares Mag as in quite a lot of instances you can not buy at the price recommended because of the MM mark-ups.

"I have taken them to task over this and had no satisfactory response and they quote their remarkable gains based on their recommended price and not what you could have bought at.

Its time the FSA laid down some very strict guide lines. Enough said, but well done for challenging them. Let's see what transpires.'

I'll keep you all in touch and let you know if I get any reply from Shares!

A quiet end to the week as I write but the market still looks a bit soggy to say the least. My spread betting account is still coining it in with my shorts going very well.

Cairn Energy and Burren Energy continue to built the profits for me. I am sometimes tempted to sell them, but they just keep on going up so I'm running with these two winners!

VP has been quiet for a while but that's starting a move which is interesting - a push above 150 will see 170 fast! I bought a few for Mrs F's ISA at 150p today.

White Young Green bounced well off 200p and looks likely to try and hit the 220p area again.
Sondex is holding onto its very decent recent gains and the chart looks extremely bullish.

All in all, considering market weakness the portfolio has performed pretty well. Obviously it's lost a bit in the last two weeks but the shorts have helped me to stay in profit.

There is one share I am quite interested in buying but just waiting to see a little uptick before I buy in - I hope to buy it on Monday unless the markets continue to fall.

brought to you by Mr Robbie Burns from FrequentTrader

Past Commentaries

Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July

Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004

Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004

The "Ads by Google" are just ads and help support the free information aspect of this site. You'll have to do your own research to decide whether those companies are reliable or not. Please do not copy/paste this content without permission. If you want to use any of it on your website contact us via email webmaster@financial-spread-betting.com

Current Spread Betting Commentary

Friday 8th October

Thursday 30th September

Wendesday 6th October

Tuesday 5th October

Monday 4th October

Thursday 30th September

Thursday 30th September

Wendesday 29th September

Tuesday 28th September

Monday 27th September

Friday 24th September

Thursday 23rd September

Wendesday 22nd September

Tuesday 21th September

Monday 20th September

Tuesday 17th September

Thursday 16th September

Wendesday 15th September

Tuesday 14th September

Monday 13th September

Friday 10th September

Thursday 09th September

Wendesday 08th September

Tuesday 07th September

Monday 06th September

Friday 03rd September

Thursday 02nd September

Wendesday 01st September

Tuesday 31sh August

Friday 28th August

Thursday 27th August

Wendesday 25th August

Tuesday 24th August

Monday 23th August

Friday 20th August

Thursday 19th August

Wendesday 18th August

Tuesday 17th August

Monday 16th August

Friday 13th August

Past Commentaries