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Tipsters, Seminars, Oil Stocks & More


Q.153: I'm looking for a spread betting company that will hold the trade open until I choose to close it, with me incurring the daily interest to keep the trade open, but without it closing each night (Finspreads were closing my trades each night and re-opening them incurring any profit or loss for that day). I also want the ability, as per Metatrader 4, to have multiple same-direction trades open at any one time, allowing me to close these trades on an individual basis as I choose.

A: Capital Spreads offer rolling daily trades that do exactly as you have stated you are looking for. If you opened a rolling daily trade today, that trade would remain open and roll over into the next day continuously until either you manually close out of the trade or until you are stopped out of that trade.

Your multi-entries will be tracked at an average price and you can only close the whole position, but you can close them individually via variable independent stop loss or limit profit options.

 

Q.154: Is there a company which permits me to be long and short of the same instrument at the same time, in the same account?


My reasons for this are two-fold; sometimes I wish to keep a longer trade open whilst taking a shorter term trade in the opposite direction. The other thing is about crystallizing gains/losses - if I am long on a contract and want to short it I may not want to crystallize a loss/gain (which will affect your cash balance)

A: I believe you are referring to Force Open - to open a position without closing an existing position, the only company I know that does it is IG (although there may be others).

If you really want to do this sort of thing, you could have two accounts, one a main account and another a sub-account. Nominate one for long term trades and the other for short term stuff. Otherwise the only way to make an equal and opposite trade would be to trade in different expiry dates in the same market. Most markets have rolling and next two quarterlies (at least). However, all you are doing is opening two trades and paying the company the spread on both

I can understand the psychology of wishing to keep a trade open whilst 'hedging' over a difficult period...but from a purely financial point of view you should just close the existing trade and then re-open it at a later date/time, rather than make an equal and opposite trade as it costs money to keep positions open. So if you have two positions you will lose on both on cost of carry (a minor amount each day). And from a trading point of view, you now have two positions to make decisions over rather than just one.

Q.155: A few weeks ago you mentioned RHM. Personally, I wouldn't touch RHM with a barge pole. It just doesn't feel right to me.

A: Try very hard to ignore any feelings that you might have of this kind like:

Instead, just focus on company fundamentals like:

These are cold hard facts. And as for most of the rest, there are just too many variables to consider and the self-delusion that we can actually understand how they all interact can be very dangerous to our wealth.

Q.156: I have heard mention, and read on numerous occasions, that it is not wise to over-trade. But...how does one define over-trading? Examples would be appreciated.

A: This discussion really revolves around your trading systems time frame and your performance measurement system.

For example if you trade a long term system which only takes weekly signals and you find yourself interfering with the system intra week to take more signals earlier then a case could be made for over trading.

In addition to this if you find your average hold time decreasing because you are anxious to exit positions either because you are worried about a perceived profit slip or because you are simply bored with the lack of activity then you are moving towards over trading.

For each individual over trading can only really be defined in terms of their previous history which means looking back at your performance data and how that relates to your system and the time frames it trades.

I have found that when I'm a bit bored with other aspects of my life, I tend to tinker with my system and over-trade. I find myself more & more attracted to short term trades & get rather too attached to intra-day candlesticks. However, when I compare my results during those periods, I actually haven't made any more money than when I was implementing a medium or a long term system.

Another usage of the term 'over-trading' I've seen in the literature is simply putting on position sizes that are too big for your account (e.g. consistently exceeding the "2-percent" rule; see Chande's book "Beyond Technical Analysis").

For me over trading means that I have to give back too much of my life to watching the screen - which partially acts like a job replacement. It also means I begin dreaming about trades and have the occasional 3am morning where I'm lying in bed churning about all of it. I notice I'm over trading from my reactions to trading. If I'm over-reacting to profits & losses, it probably means I've got too many positions on, or my position sizes are too large, or I'm trying to get unreasonable profits in a very short period of time.

Q.157: Any thoughts on Oil stocks?

A: The rule of thumb on oil stocks is to be very respectful of market trends as you only learn slowly over time that the down stream businesses of the oil majors can suffer during periods of high prices when their "upstream" extraction and refining businesses are obviously booming.

Explorers have more value adding opportunities but the majority of them are run by rogues who never deliver so it is quality filtering and luck that you need plus only play this game when us oil stock levels are looking dodgy and both gas and oil prices are on an uptrend.

Long term what matters in oil is the price assumption that the oil majors use for their own planning purposes and not the spot price of $64. This was $18 then $24 - 28 and I don't know what it is now but you can find out by exhaustive reading of their annual reports and analysts write ups.

Gamblers should buy shares in the engineering firms and engineering consultancies according to Mondays FT (Fluor,FLR, at $86 for instance) as new refineries need to be built. No need to buy these before market stops wobbling.

Q.158: A spreadbetting training company will give me a 2 day course for £2200. And a monthly subscription service of £90 a month!


A spreadbetting training company will give me a 2 day course for £2200, when I started looking at their website they do a monthly subscription service of £90 a month. But they have some really good tipsters in the business the last tip was Tullow oil when they tipped about 6 months it was £4.50 and now its £7.00 well the margins are brilliant. And on the spread they are making a lot of money to lots of people. Any thoughts?

A: In a phrase: They're taking you for a ride.

Tullow oil @4.50, spread 4.47-4.53;

If you think Tullow oil will rise in price place an up bet at, say, £10 per penny at 4.53. Price goes to 4.86 and you get out;

Profit = 4.86-4.53 X £10 = £330.

If you think they will fall in price place a down bet at £10 pp. You decide to cut your loss and get out at 4.86;

Loss = 4.86-4.47 X £10 = £390.

Note how the spread works to give the spread betting merchant their cut.

Tips will be of no more value than those given in penny share rags. Some will outperform the market and some will underperform. On average they will do about the same as the market.

Please feel free to contact me to arrange mailing of cheque for £2200. If you want to send me a further £90/month I will pick some shares using a top-secret patented method for guaranteeing only winners are selected and pass these to you in a covert way.

Good luck (which of course you won't need if you go with my special tips)!

Side note: It’s not speculative tips you want - it’s a proven system, along with a rigid money management system, which you always stick to. Surely you want to get into the market before any tips come to light.

If you want to "invest" £2,200 learning about spread betting - I'd open up a spread betting account and deposit my money there.

Decide how much you want to lose "per bet", as a starting point - say it's £100.

Decide how much you want to bet "per point" - say £2.

In this example, this means that when you open a bet at ‘2 per point’, your closing position should be 50 points below or above the open (depending on whether you are long or short).

Under this scenario, you will be able to suffer 22 consecutive losses (i.e. 22 x £100 = £2,200) without running out of capital.

If you are wise, you will ALSO establish your 'limit gains', i.e. how much money you want to make per bet.

I think that you would be wasting your money going to any training on this, because the most difficult thing about spread betting is your mind-set and the psychology of spread betting! What I mean by this is how you feel, and what you do when you incur losses, and how you feel, what you do when you make gains. Too many people take their gains too early, and suffer their losses for too long.

If you do choose to spread bet using real money - you will understand what I mean. Make sure you have your stop losses and limit gains set before your place your bet, and become detached from your emotions.

I have been regularly spread betting shares for a number of years, and now all I see is numbers on the screen - it doesn't relate to real money at all - and that is what you need to achieve to become successful.

A final word - Capital Preservation is the key - if your bets are not structured in the correct manner, or you get too emotionally involved, you could lose a shed load of money.

Capital Spreads or even Tradindex both offer a demo account - and this is a very good thing to try out - because it does replicate real trading with real time bets...etc

Once you start with a spread betting firm, and are rolling over trades from day to day, do check the costs to roll-over. For example, shorting with Capital Spreads gives you an income on roll-over (whereas IG Index incurs a cost). However, going long with IG Index might be better, because it costs less than Capital Spreads.

Good Luck - and remember betting is a zero sum game - can YOU beat the market?

Q.159: Are there any tipsters or trading publications that you recommend?

A: Generally the effects of promotion are arbitraged away by specialists who have bought the stock before you did and will be selling the stock on an accelerated version of buy on the rumour - sell on the news. So from the trading point of view promotion can often be a negative whereas from the 18 month horizon "investor" point of view (remember the old days..oh-me, oh-my...) the increased liquidity, newsflow and greater breadth of other investors can be a good thing.

In my broker days when I worked in a "box" in the pre-screen stockmarket and Mr Bearbull used to phone us for prices just before his publication deadline. We could estimate from the pattern of price enquiries and newsflow which he might tip that week. Blue buttons bought these at close the night before publication and happily sold them into the market the next morning when the tip appeared in print. Moral - sell the shares boosted by Investor Magazines rather than buy them.

Having said this below are a few publications that I subscribe to as I like the style of them and most of the 'tips' 2 each month usually are worth looking into even if its just to get a style of your own. Again the market makers play around the day after publication but as you always do your own research, etc. you can usually get in at a price that suits you, if you want to.

  • Momentum investor (monthly)
  • Sharewatch (monthly)
  • Trendwatch (more a market analysis than "tips" although it does tip a couple of momentum shares in each bi-weekly issue)

These cost me around £300 per year and to be honest well worth it, Momentum probably the best for style and content, Trendwatch probably the best for market update, etc. Sharewatch the worst of a good bunch.

Q.160: Which are the best spreadbetting books out there to read?

A: The Financial Spread Betting Handbook -A guide to making money trading spread bets by Malcolm Pryor is a good read with some chapters on technical analysis and lots of how to do practical stuff! I would also suggest you to read some of the articles on this site…

 CMC Stop Spikes and why most traders lose money (page 20)


Capital Spreads now not only offer 1 tick FTSE Spreads...
they are now also offering a range of small cap and AIM stocks
& if you want to set up an account with them via me they offer you a £70 bonus after 2 trades – and I’d get £20 too!
I quite like these win win things ...so click here if you want to open your account.

Hope that answers some of your questions but feel free to send me queries, comments or concerns at traderATfinancial-spread-betting.com or by filling in the form below :-)

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