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SIR ALAN: So, Robbie why shouldn't I just
bloody well fire you...
ROBBIE: Oh, er well, I've made a lot of money.. and er
SIR ALAN: Yer, but only for your bloody self.. what about the team..
ROBBIE: .. and I'm a good planner, I plan every trade and..
SIR ALAN: Don't give me bloody planning, I've got bloody planners.. can you
bloody sell?
ROBBIE: Yes, I sold quite a bit yesterday, took profits and everything
SIR ALAN: But I'm told you sit around the house all day in a pair of mouldy
sodding track suit bottoms
ROBBIE: But they're nice and comfy and if I spill tea and toast on them it
doesn't much matter and..
MARKETS
Onto the markets Wow - well, what a nice way to go into the
Easter holidays with an amazing day with tons of stock in the portfolio rising
bigtime. Two trades - both re-entries into previous successful trades
I bought back into AGA
yesterday afternoon with a £30 a
point spreadbet buy at 401p.I
love the fact it's trying to bottom out now at 400 and if it succeeds 440 looks
an easy target for an even easier £900 with little downside. 500 looks a
possibility after 440. Target 440,
stop 375. I've been into why this
looks a great play before - plenty of upside here.
I also bought back into the one I took profits on! That's
Victrex (VCT) and back in this
morning at 692 for
£20 a point. Target
790 stop
660. The selling looks to be
overdone now (possibly including my recent sell). It's very volatile but when it
moves up it can really rocket which obviously I am hoping will be the case here!
Elsewhere star of the show is CSR
- up again massively as its true potential starts to emerge - again glad I
ignore the downs that happen on this one sometimes, let the short-term traders
have their fun while I sit there and enjoy the long-term gains without having to
pay stamp duty and commission.
Abacus continues its big
run up - one newspaper reckoned 230 seemed a likely target and I'm not going to
argue. Patience paid off here.
Devro is going to be one of those
patient ones that will suddenly shoot higher - signs today that it could happen
quite soon.
More Bull from Shares Magazine chartist (yup the same one that
had a sell on Wolfson at 375!) Here's his complete cobblers take on Carphone
Warehouse with a sell 'at 307'.
Easter is fast approaching and we've
managed to get a bit of babysitting! That is we are now allowed out on Friday
night and Saturday afternoon.. oh my goodness what shall we do with this bit of
freedom?
Onto the mailbag: Mo
writes: I have MXP in my ISA, with Barclays Stockbrokers. But questions have
been raised on the MXP ADVFN board that at the end of the day the Revenue may
not allow it as ISA-able even though Barclays think it is. As there is not automatic feed to
identify the origins of each AIM stock, we can't provide an exhaustive list of
ISA eligible But then he bought it again? He
therefore now has paid three lots of commission and fees - why not just hang on
to them a bit longer which is what I have done. It and Venture Production have been
doing well recently because of their exposure to large quantities of reliable
gas reserves in the North Sea. I think this will continue. The charts are great
for both. I let myself get shaken out of Marchpole,
aarrghh. My mum seems to have the natural trader's touch though. I thought you
might be interested to hear about her trades. She's very bright and calm. She
never lets herself get shaken out of good shares like yourself. She bought Aquarius platinum two months
ago at 635 and was up 40% yesterday, but isn't the slightest bit interested in
selling. She said nothing goes up in straight lines. She bought Wolfson at 260 and sold out
at 389 on the way down for a 50% profit. We didn't have your foresight/guts on
that one. Your policy of staying with good shares is correct. She bought Tullow
at 260 and then it dropped to 220, we thought oh no, but now that difference is
nothing. On a less happy note she bought Victoria
Oil for 55p in November, and then sold out at 51, a few weeks before it had its
dramatic rise. But that one was just luck. Even with this loss, my mum has been
averaging a profit of 7.5% a month for the last 9 months.
MARKETS
Onto the markets: Quite a bit of profit taking to report in
the last 24 hours. Given the markets are looking a little ropey I've taken some
profit in sectors that look weak and dipped my toe in the shorting market!
That's the end of the quiet period! The
family is back home and once again my mouse is under attack! Never mind, it's
good to have them all back. I put some Whiskas cat treats which look
remarkably like Twiglets into a bowl with some dip. Everyone else knew they were
cat biscuits except for him and he ate his way through quite a few.
MARKETS
Onto the markets. Two buys and a sell to report. I've latched
onto Latchways (LTC). (Gettit?) I
bought 900 shares at
679 despite the fact they went up
a lot yesterday and today. Target 800,
stop 630.
But the fact a share has gone up a lot since I last held
never stops me from getting back in so I'm back in. This trust has elements of
everything one should be holding right now and it gives me exposure to some AIM
stock I could not otherwise hold in my ISAs.
But they knocked Wolfson, CSR and Burren unfairly. However
shares always recover quickly. It is amazing though how much influence they
hold.
A strategy which shows this well-run company is determined
to take over from BT as the number one phone company. The news makes me even
more sure the shares are a long-term must for any portfolio.
I'm in a rush! Christopher is due back
any minute from Ireland and I only have one mouse left. I know the first
thing he'll do when my back's turned is dash to the office to grab it. I've
taken one major precaution: the loo seat is firmly down! Ironing is the most difficult part, I
hadn't realised what a tough job it was. I wonder what Elizabeth will make of my
efforts? Probably make encouraging noises and then re-do them all properly is my
guess!
MARKETS
Onto the market....Well, it's the start of the Easter
fortnight where volumes are a lot lower and one can generally expect a bit less
action.
Come back Elizabeth and Christopher! Where's my dinner? And even though I
can maintain possession of my mouse I miss the little blighter! Right how did I do with my Aintree
betting yesterday? Not bad! If you remember I backed the favourites on the
spreads for £6 at 62 - the result was 80 so I made £6 times 18 - a total of £108
in profit. Onto the mailbag:
Nader writes: It was you! On the
train yesterday. You got off at Isleworth? Was that you, with your wife in a
mini skirt and your cute kid...?
MARKETS
Onto the markets. I am very keen to buy a certain
share but level 2 continues to tell me there is no need to buy it yet, in fact
it's heading a bit lower today which is great as I am looking for a value entry
price - maybe later today or Monday.
This will be the year of oil company bids and counter bids
and I can see Tullow going at
450p, Burren at 1400p and
Dragon at 280p! You read it here
first!
It's so quiet!! Christopher and
Elizabeth left home at 5am for Ireland where they are staying till Monday. It's
hard to get used to actually being able to leave my mouse in my office without
coming back a few minutes later to find it gone and down the loo. But I miss
them already! Ahhhh!!
MARKETS
Onto the markets. After doing some research yesterday I
bought the share that had been mentioned to me by the neighbour! It looks
fascinating but very high risk so I bought a small amount for the SIPP - details
today on this to those subscribing to my e-mail. Looks like it could push nicely
higher.
Treat me gently - I've got a hangover.
Ow, headache but it was worth it - it was good wine! Last night we went upstairs
to have dinner with our new neighbours who sold us the flat. They were lovely
company and a very interesting couple. The Grand National is this weekend - I'll be doing a spot or two of spreadbetting on it - did well the last few years! If you want to have some fun
and spreadbet on sports with me and grab some free bets then click the link
below:
MARKETS
Onto the markets. I really am not in a fit state to deal today
so I have left everything running as it is! However this seems a sensible move
as the portfolio is absolutely soaring higher today!
Shanks and
Pantheon are both firing up.
Northern Recruitment is on the
move and I'm looking for a break through 150.
Charter keeps climbing,
Atkins is on fire and the oils
are going well.
My 83-year-old mum was complaining last
night. She can't believe her council tax is now a whopping £1,600. 'That's up
£300,' she says. 'That can't be right.' Because let's face it - most councils
employ too many middle managers who sit on computers and e-mail their friends
all day. Many councillors are corrupt and take backhanders to get planning
projects through. And they money they all waste! Did you know by the way that the best paid
public sector workers (ie we pay them) received average pay increases of 13% -
more than five times inflation? And the average public sector worker gets paid
more than the private sector counterpart? The Grand National is this weekend - I'll be doing a spot or two of spreadbetting on it - did well the last few years! If you want to have some fun
and spreadbet on sports with me and grab some free bets then click the link
below:
MARKETS
Onto the markets. A sparkling day! First off excellent
results from Havelock Europa (HVE)
- this looks an easy call with a rise to profits of more than £6m as I
suspected, these shares will inevitably climb up to 200p - I shall just sit and
wait - only a matter of time. You just don't know how I feel this
morning! OK then, bloody great! We closed the cafe at 5pm on Friday, did a stock
take, and handed over the keys. What a start! The next day the old lady
cornered me and said: 'Me and him are going to get this place closed down!'
Yes, sounds like a soap opera and so the
whole place turned out to be over the years - we had drama, entertainment, good
times and bad times but in the end we saw it through. Now we live on the river it's a
completely different thing! Loads of cheering people were lined up on the
towpath all waving at Christopher and admiring Domino.
My belief is though this is still a great company that's
going places long-term. I am keeping hold of some MTL and also via my holding in
ISIS smaller companies trust.
I sold at 463 (real trades
2,000 at
463 and
2,000 at
460) to take website profits of
£195, £1,103, and £1,020 for a total profit of
£2,318. I've kept the 1,000
bought at 343.5. That's a total profit taken for the site taken today of
£2,938.
I'm afraid there will be no new update
tomorrow (Friday). You then often see new
investors/institutions getting in. If you like what you see in a company
sometimes it's a great chance to get in on the dip!
MARKETS
Onto the markets. I just had to buy one from my seminar
shortlist because I'm getting paranoid! Remember two of the shortlist went up
more than 15% and I hadn't bought them yet!
I still expect more long-term gains. A little surprised to
see it back in the 900 area though. Looks like the bad news in today's update is
all priced in - surely given the very robust results?
Countdown to the final completion date of the
sale of the cafe: two days! In fact we hand over at 5pm on Friday! And all I can
say is: thank goodness! (Reckon I've used up all the exclamation marks I'm
allowed in this update already!) For example, I'm going to Australia for
4 weeks in April and trying to keep tabs on UK market whilst 8 hours ahead will
be impossible. In fact, I'll probably only have access to the internet every
couple of days. Would checking the market every couple of days be sufficient for
keeping an eye on my shares?
MARKETS
Onto the markets. One high risk buy made today which those
of you subscribed to the e-mail list should be able to read about shortly.
It was actually great to have the mother
in law here for the weekend looking after Christopher - because after the
seminar we were both tired.
Onto the markets. Aaarrggghhh!! I can hardly believe it!
Yet another share from the shortlist of good value shares I presented at
Friday's seminar has been bid for to join Babcock.
Bit of profit-taking going on in a thin market but would
suspect one for the institutions to look at and should stay strong even if the
market crashed.
Onto the mailbag:
Mary says: Hello Robbie. I was thinking about the government waste that you were
talking about. Perhaps a web site should be started that highlighted all the
waste that goes on. Basically I would have thought that it
was a criminal offence to waste money that is not your own, in fact it may be
possible for the people to sue the government, like Billy Connolly in the 'Man
who sued God,' a good funny film, Tony Blair may fit in there!! I was reading that Ofsted offices
papered their offices in paper worth £1000 a roll, imported solid oak doors from
America and had giant plasma televisions, all blatant waste of public funds.
Onto the markets. At the seminar we had a shortlist of what
I considered to be shares worth buying and the one easily proving the most
popular/best value/most likely to be a good medium term investment was:
Interserve (IRV).
So at the seminar I bought
1,500 at
385.5p. Target
450p, stop
340p. It sounds like an exciting
tech firm when in fact it's one of the boring-sounding ones I always like that
really delivers the profits! It's actually a building and services company that
is going great guns and recently delivered a 15% rise in profits.
Pre-tax profits have risen sharply to over £7m and one can
imagine long-term the shares rising to about 650p. For now I'm not sure whether
to take a few profits or not and I wonder whether an institutions will be
looking at these.
No updates or e-mails tomorrow (Friday)
I'm afraid as I'll be in a hotel near Heathrow with some of my readers showing
them how to make money on the markets (hopefully).
MARKETS A quietish but positive market today.
Fantastic rise for me yesterday afternoon from
Brixton, - thanks to my mate
Gordon Brown - up more than 13% yesterday - what a nice spreadbet this is
turning out to be!
Ah, it all falls into place! The company that
runs the congestion charge has 'Lent' Labour millions! No wonder the government
was happy to see the extension of the London charge into places where er...
there isn't any bloody congestion and in places where more than 75% of residents
said 'no' to it. He'll talk the usual gobbledegook which
makes him look impressive while robbing the lot of us blind. Oh yes, hear hear
great Budget, where's my cheque book?
MARKETS Onto the markets...A bit of a dull week
so far with not much going on. I kind of hesitate regarding buying anything at
the moment as the market has a bout of nerves at this 6,000 level.
Piers Morgan is launching a 'newspaper
for nine to 12 year olds'. A big article in the paper yesterday on this - he and
some friends have got some serious backing for it. 'It's been a big gap in the
market for years,' he says. No bets lined up at the moment but I
will be betting at Aintree and of course on Big Brother again!
If you want to have some fun and spreadbet on sports with me and grab some free
bets then click the link below: Onto the mailbag:
Frank writes: Loved your reply to
Kate who appears 'fisting for a fight' regarding some of the morons on
Apprentice . I understand that a lot of bookshops
keep stock on a sale or return basis. If a book is signed they cannot return it
and therefore becomes a sale - not that I am suggesting anything!!
MARKETS You can call me a genius day trader now.
The 'rolling' daily spreadbet on CSR
I have closed out at 1037 to make
an excellent profit in just three days of
£1,170. Better to have it this way then rocket
right through 6,000 to say 6,200 and then get an almighty crash. My thoughts are
a little pullback around now will see us less likely to see a big fall which
many fear.
I'm very happy with my new trading office except for one problem..
naughty Christopher. I had a good solid door put in so I can hide away from him.
But it only took one push from him to get in this morning, grab my mouse and run
off chuckling away. Right, we'll just have to get a lock won't we!! Would you employ any of those foul
mouthed obnoxious people who throw their toys out of the pram when things don't
go their way and can't organise a project? I wouldn't. Onto the markets. Yet another terrific
day. Nothing much to do though for the moment except watch the money roll in!
I've been digging around trying to find some new buys and it's amazing how many
undervalued shares are around and I'm coming up with a pretty good list for the
seminar this Friday. By the way nice call by the Shares
Magazine 'chartist' - sell Wolfson at 375 he reckoned due to some load of
cobblers he'd invented - price two weeks later? 443!
I've just written a letter to Tony Blair:
Mailbag time: Chartist Frank
writes: 'Saw you had opened a long position on CSR, although I feel you are
justifiably 'skittish' about it in the short term as per your rolling cash bet. At the time of writing CSR is 975p and
looking for a low of 968p to open a short position. All the best Robbie, just
keep your eye on CSR and be ready to take your profit quickly. Thanks Frank. Nothing like rising
windows and supply bases!! It's currently 1005 - hope you didn't short when it
went below 968 yesterday!! Onto the markets... Hey I realise all
along that really I am a fantastic day trader!! My first day trade looks like it
is going to pay off nicely. I rolled over my
CSR daytrade into today and I'm
sitting on profits of more than £700 already. Pretty good for a daytrade (well kind of
two days!) I guess I will follow my short term plan and close out this
afternoon. Mind you if it gets above 1120....
Thanks Sir Alan! Perhaps let me put it
in his own words: 'I was watching the bloody Apprentice when the bloody useless
Amstrad box packed up just when I was about to find out who was bloody fired!
For making that crappy box, you're bloody fired!' So for that reason I am buying the sps
again - this time at a higher 79 - and for that reason I've reduced my stake to
£7 a point. After all I don't want to give all my
winnings back either... so I suggest to anyone buying the sps today, perhaps
lower stakes! Steve
writes: Enjoy spending your Cheltenham winnings from today! Nice 33/1 + 33/1
finish. Wish I'd copied you, I'm getting married on Saturday and the money would
have come in most helpful!!! You've put a target on of 65p, but even
then that would only give it a P/E of 10 when the average for the footsie at the
moment is something like 13/14. I know the markets are irrational or
should I say the people that create the market are irrational, but is there
something else in the accounts that I can't see, I know there's some problems
with the pension fund but they don't look that bad. I suspect the reason its not risen
further for the moment is the shares were so quiet for so long bored holders
have decided to take profits just to get out! I am happy to be patient - these
are a nice hold. Onto the markets. As you know I love to
top up on shares I already bought that just keep going up and I have done that
today. A while back I bought White Young Green (WHY) shares at 265. I''ve made a
huge profit as they are now 370. Why not look at shares with fresh eyes?
No reason not to buy more just because I bought at 100 points lower previously.
I bought 1,650 more
WHY shares this morning at
367 - target
420, stop
340. So I bought a 'rolling day' trade with
Cantor for £15 a point at
958. With a 'rolling' bet you get
a very tight spread which indeed I got. I'm intending to try and close this out
with an profit today! Let you know tomorrow! The shares will get to 25 but go back to
23 on profit taking. But new buyers will get in again and take it to 30. Does
that make sense? Well, here's hoping!
How do people do it? Jog/run at 7am in
the morning? It's 7am as I write this in my new trading office overlooking the
river. I get paid out a tenner a point once all
the winning sps are added up - or lose when they don't. So I'm cheering on the
outsiders. Come on, Slow Ned!! Onto the markets. So, good old
Costain (COST). Shareholders like
me have been yawning over our non moving shares for a long time. It has been an incredibly boring wait
but the news today has been worth the wait and I'm now in good profit on my
holds. A fantastic set of results and with dividends set to resume, institutions
should be queuing to pick up shares. Pension deficit is being sorted. New
contracts being won especially in the water arena. Road contracts being won. And
the company wants to win back its status of being number one. With the market
cap only sitting at around £180m, it looks way too cheap. I'm running a bit late today. This is
due to my naughty young son who disappeared off with my mouse. After searching
for it for ages, I discovered he'd put it down the loo. Lucky for me I have an
emergency back up. I guess he was just experimenting to see whether it floats.
It doesn't! If you want to set up an account with either in
time for the racing just click this link:
Onto the mailbag: Suzanne
writes: Just wanted to relate the following - I was looking for potential share
purchases last week as I've just topped up my ISA. Browsing through director
buys I noticed that 3 directors at the London stock exchange made big purchases
of 70k, 113k and 430k early last week. Although the price has already risen
sharply this year, I thought that this was a sure sign that the LSE was probably
a good buy and wanted to do more research over the weekend. As you can see from
the 25% increase this morning I should have got on with it, and I'm kicking
myself today ! I notice 2 directors at your recent buy
Marchpole made purchases of 35k and 17.5k early last week as well. You don't
mention director dealings in your marvellous column, I wonder if you ever look
through them ? Onto the markets. One new buy to report
- another from the shortlist from the seminar - and that's
AGA Foodservices (AGA). I bought
1,800 shares at
349.8p yesterday afternoon.
Target 385 stop
325. Some decent buying coming in and this
well-run company should soon get the recognition it deserves.
Charter is seeing a lovely rise
today - up more than 30 points. Should soon speed through 700 on the way to my
target. Carphone
Warehouse is breaking up through new highs today, this was always a great
long-term hold and I expect to probably hold it for many months.
Wolfson is beginning to look
strong again after struggling to hold 400p - looks a convincing rise today.
Onto the markets. At the seminar we did
in depth research into eight companies I thought could go up by at least 20% -
and delegates took a vote to decide which I should buy rightaway! This was one time when an auto stop loss
would have meant less losses - but the main lesson to learn is: don't short in a
bull market! I ended up losing £960
closing out at 655. I will be
back as a shorter when I reckon the bull run has ended. A shame because my Cantor account now
reckons I made a profit of £70,000! Tempting to try and close with that profit
but I have a feeling I'd have to give the money back!
Sadly there will be no update tomorrow
(Friday) - next update will be Monday.. Also, as a strict technical trader,
Graham could benefit from totally ignoring what newspapers, TV pundits,
periodicals and sources of information other than the charts are saying about a
particular share. I know that the fundamentalists out
there will disapprove, but changing between one method and another to suit the
mood will always end up in losses. For what it is worth, I would wait to
see if Centrica clearly passes 300 before opening a long position, or more
aggressively, open a long position now with a stop at the long term trend line,
at about 288. Excellent website Robbie, the book is just as good if not better.
Keep up the good work.
MARKETS Onto the markets.. Ahhhh, that's
better.. I always tell people to just go away and have some tea and toast on a
bad market day but they never listen. And again as I always say 'don't panic!
Malcolm writes: Had to
smile at your comment about southern jessies and black cod. Where I live in
sunny Stoke the only way to sample such a dish is to ask them to burn it in the
fryer, definitely not a dish for jessies!' Onto the markets: There's only one word
to describe today's market and it is definitely a 'profane' word, let's just say
it begins with 's' and ends with 't'. A day of complete markdowns. We've seen this before in the last
couple of months - I don't think it spells the end of the bull market just yet!
The portfolio hasn't been hit too badly- of course I am sitting on two days of
massive profits (more than £4,000) from good old
Marchpole!
Nothing like a rise of more than 35% in one
of your holdings to kick off your day! So a happy mood right from the off, more
on that fantastic gain for me today later. My sister who is very high up in the
theatre world (owns four top theatres) can herself hardly believe in the
corruption going on and has switched to the Tories after helping Labour for 20
years. Look forwards to seeing you all on
Friday. Now if any of you coming want to stay one or both nights at the hotel on
either the 10th or 24th we managed to get a cheaper deal for you. Onto the mailbag.
Steve writes: Had to laugh at
your bollocks (excuse the phrase) and it reminded me of a friends cock (excuse
the phrase)! A couple of years ago a friend of mine
had cause to email the CBBC website " I forget why " and his email was bounced
back for containing a profanity. Exactly Rodger there is a lot to protest
about but can we be bothered to protest? No! Let's let everyone steamrollers us
with higher taxes and red tape nonsense!
MARKETS What can I say except wow! A more than
35% rise in Marchpole this
morning but it's not nearly enough which is why I got in as early as possible
this morning to buy a load more! A bit sad as it is still undervalued but
in the end it's just too illquid and I had to accept a penny less to sell the
shares I had left (just under 6,000). I did sell a few bits and pieces in the
low 60s.
So here I am sitting on my massage
chair, feet up on a table, keyboard on lap, looking at the sun on the river,
rowers rowing, joggers jogging, traders, er trading...It's quite handy even
temporarily having the massage chair as the office chair. Onto the mailbag...Steve
writes: Hi Robbie - might interest a few readers if you give us your take /
strategy on triple witching At present I just think I might close my
positions in case there are wild fluctuations and my stops are hit. And that I shouldn't have bought
Bodyshop because I love there Mango Body Butter :-) There was a bit more to the
purchase of the latter one though - I bought them for 117p not only because I
liked their products but I did also notice that other people liked their
products and their stores are always full and people appreciated their
environmental concerns. I had also noticed that when they opened
stores in Japan the share price rose and so I thought they would rise some more
once they were opened in the US. The shares are now 260p. So you see feminine
ideas work too - or was I just lucky :-) Anyway thanks for the book and I do
enjoy your daily website readings. You were a bit lucky I guess as they
became a takeover target but at least you had reasons for buying in Many people
buy into companies with no thought at all!!! The broker said it was confident
Carphone's forthcoming broadband model represented an important source of growth
in the medium term as it hiked its price target to 310p from 240p. Onto the markets. What a corker of a
day! My spreadbet account alone has put on £15k in the last three trading days!
It's not really a day to trade, just a day to enjoy the big gains coming in..
The mother in law is here till Monday - cue the Les Dawson jokes. Now,
don't be nasty! This gives me and Elizabeth a bit of time on our own. My
goodness we can go out and see a movie! Or go and eat out! How exciting!!!! Onto the mailbag:
Stuart writes :Watched both
episodes of the Apprentice last night. God, aren't managers utter prats! I can't
believe the one bloke actually wanted to call them the A team! It brings back memories of a few years
ago when some INSANE manager had us all sticking labels on things so we'd 'know
what they are.' Ie labelling a table a TABLE and a bin a BIN. I came very close
to just letting Apocalypse Now chef loose that day I can tell you. I've strictly operated on stoplosses at
times, only to find the losses I'd made subsequently turned into what would have
been huge profits. That made me think about your strategy
of being an investor rather than a day-trader, and I tend not to follow SL's
slavishly any more - it's working to a reasonable degree. One of my signals has been 'outing'
Burren for some time - price dropped significantly from its high. However, on
paper at least, Burren's still a very decent winner for me. I still think Burren has some way to go,
but after such a sustained run, wonder how to determine what's likely to happen
from here on. My analysis indicates I'm overweight on
Burren, but it's tempting to see if the price continues to recover. I'd value
your thoughts. Onto the markets. Yet another brilliant
day for the portfolio to round off the week in great style.
CSR gets the star rating of the
week after coming back nearly 200 points! Very glad I held my nerve and I'm also
happy I banked some decent profit as well. Blimey - this must be one of my biggest
profit-making days ever with my portfolio soaring.. more on that later..
certainly makes me feel cheerful! I'm not entirely convinced about David
Cameron but anything's got to be an improvement on this current shambles and
that's before I even get onto that clown Prescott. Anyway, moving on, what an opportunity
yesterday with CSR sold down to £9. Crazy! Anyway I piled in and am currently
sitting on more than £700 profit after 1 day, but think I'll hang on because I
agree with you, £12 is quite possible. Keep up the good work and now that you
have moved, I await the next book with interest.
Daytrader Richard writes:
Robbie, agree with the Jackie Mason v other comedians comment. The comedians
today r just plain crude. And 'Chartists can't see anything, but
there are a handful of very skilful chartists out there who can.' Onto the markets. A couple of new buys made
yesterday afternoon to report and one from this morning. One risky and two, er
less risky! Of course as a market maker only share
it will be volatile but the share is generally quite liquid, when I bought it
was possible to buy a massive 220,000 shares online. A really excellent day on the markets
for me with massive rises. The chips are really up today and congrats to The
Times who reckoned CSR was a sell
at 910! I said I thought the shares would soon be back at 1200 and today they
have rocketed back over 1000.Wolfson
has joined in the fun and that is trying to head above 400 again. Glad I held my
nerve.
I had trouble logging in this morning. Why?
Because this morning Christopher decided though still a bit sickly he would have
a burst of energy. With the ending of the business and because I love coffee I'm about to buy
a top line machine so I can make decent coffee at home. Now why did I write that
sentence? Do you care less that I need a decent machine? No! So forget I ever
wrote it! I've booked tickets to see the only comedian in the whole world worth
seeing - the brilliant Jewish comedian who must be knocking 80, Jackie Mason.
He's playing at the Theatre Royal Drury Lane, on Sunday June 11th - just one
date. Mailbag time:
Francis writes: I have been a
holder of Serco since 240, great results and drops like a stone - I can see no
negatives whatsoever (no 'challenging') and forward visibility is impressive. Onto the markets. A couple of buys!
First after a sparking statement from
Devro (DVO) I just had to buy! With £26m in profits banked, the
market cap is simply way, way too low and although it's an unloved share I think
value will inevitably come out and the rise today should have been at least 30p
and not 6p!
We're still not quite settled in - mainly because the furniture is going
to take another 6 weeks to arrive so there's no sofa to relax on and the tiniest
telly in the world (not that there's anything worth watching)! Mailbag time.
Reid writes: 'Thanks for your
site. Have made lots of mistakes. Through your writings had the nerve to buy 106
CSR @929.38p. I hope you got a better price than me.' Why then has the market reacted so
negatively when fundamentals look so good? What have the majority of punters
spotted that I haven't to react so negatively? Unless I get to understand this reaction
I don't think I will ever be able to make money at this game. Please shed some
light for a bemused, deflated and demoralised wannabe Warren Buffet.' The negativity comes in I think because
guidance for the first quarter was a bit lower than estimated. But growth looks
great for the second quarter - so the market has sold off a bit. Still a great
share to hold for the long-term!
MARKETS Onto the markets. I'm eyeing up an
interesting looking share, a possible recovery play similar to Northern
Recruitment. I'm just waiting for the right time to get in. More news if/when it
happens! I see no reason to sell my current
holding which stays as a long-term hold. Short-term it'll be volatile and the
day traders will have fun! I think a tree-shake is likely and 150
is crucial. It's either time to take profits if it can't climb above or time to
hold on for 170 if it can. I await developments with interest!
My boy had a terrible cold all weekend and we've been up with him a lot.
That means we've not had much sleep which makes life a bit difficult but in the
end he's worth it! We're hoping it'll clear up.. very blocked nose and teething
too.. not a great combination. A small pullback is all I would expect
at best. Then again I considered your recent long positions on BARC and DLAR as
poorly timed, only to be proved wrong. All the best with all three. Thanks
Frank. Instead of Coffee Republic insert Xenova
- a racy biotech that with an insatiable appetite for cash. Those mistakes do
however focus the mind and I think most investors have had a nightmare like
that. Northern
Recruitment continues its excellent rise, I feel I'm going to get that
150 at least. Looks strong, lots of bigger buyers and a few small sellers
panicked into taking profits by a small shake. Some big buys now coming in at 140 as I
write which begins to open up the possibility of 160 if 150 can be broken. An
institution has been snapping up the shares and if they come in for some more it
will all be rather good! Recent buy
Thus is still reluctant to go
through 15p. I feel a bid is on the way this year so happy to hold till then.
However there is a big buyers around mopping up shares.
Burren is nicely back over 1000p
again and going well.
I took Christopher for a swim in our private pool at the apartment
complex. Good news.. the porter says no-one uses it all day (they are too busy
working) so me and Christopher can pop in for a swim whenever we want
undisturbed! It nearly broke my heart when I dropped
him at nursery the other day - he goes twice a week as we want him to learn to
socialise with other kids and not just with doting parents.
Onto the markets...Blimey! I didn't expect my last buy
De La Rue to jump up so fast!! Up
more than 20 points already today so a big smile on my face with more than £700
in profit already. Lots more to come too I reckon.
What happened to Gordon Ramsay last
night? Looked like he has mellowed or his broody aggressive TV character is
slipping! Getting customers through the door
Mondays-Thursdays is the tricky part. That's why I was more interested in buying
a cafe - there is business all day every day from 7am to 9pm!
Onto the markets. A new trade made yesterday afternoon and that's a spread
buy of De La Rue (DLAR) I bought
£30 a point at
539 Target
610 Stop
490. Why? The company makes
banknotes and a recent trading statement was top notch. It's making more money
by spreading its wings and winning decent contracts.
I never knew people had such energy in
the early morning. Christopher tends to awake at 6.30am so when his majesty gets
up, we all do. Onto the markets. Another very pleasing
day. I decided to take profits on my
Harvey Nash yesterday afternoon at
50p for a profit of
£1,440. An eager buyer had to pay 10p over the
asking price for shares this morning. This bodes well. I would not be surprised
to see an mm tree-shake - I think they will go for a sudden dramatic fall to get
some sellers. I will not be shaken! A great weekend, things just feel better
and better as we settle into the new abode. Grandma Burns visited us and
Christopher on Sunday and she loves the new place which quite surprised me as
she's 83 and quite conservative. She even says she'd swoop her house for a flat
like ours! What I've found very interesting is not
having a TV (except for a tiny little one which I'll watch The Apprentice on). I
haven't missed it in the slightest and quality of life seems better without one! I had been considering purchasing Alba
plc which had been rising consistently for a couple of months but after careful
research decided against. However, suppose I had bought it at,
say, around the 5.20 mark(price last Tues). I was away in London on Thursday,
the 9th, so wasn't able to monitor the stock. When I got back, out of curiosity, I
checked the price...£2.80!! It had fallen more than 50% in a day and with no
auto stop I would have been nursing a huge loss. I notice from looking at charts
of other stocks over the last year that this isn't an isolated occurrence.
I think my own view now is probably to
set stops manually but if I know I will be away from the screen for any length
of time, then set auto stops but well below any recent lows, just in case.
However, I would be interested to know your view on the above scenario. Onto the markets...A really superb day!
First of all one new buy to report and it's another investment trust -
Isis Small Companies (ISU). I
bought 2,000 shares at
306.5 and a further
2,200 at
306.5 as well. The spread was
(and still is) 304-308 so I got 1.5p off the advertised price! Target
390, stop
285. This looks a great
medium-term hold for what I think will be an easy 20%. Robbie Burns has been trading successfully for over 7 years, having spent 1996 to 2001 as finance and general editor for Sky TV's text services. Robbie has started this commentary page on Sky and Channel 5 text in 2000 and ran it until summer 2002, during which time he made profits of more than £50,000, even during the bear market from 2001. Robbie now runs an independent cafe and catering business, but trades more or less full time. He uses ISA's and PEP's to avoid tax liabilities and runs his own pension fund in a SIPP. Visit his site here
'The upthrust bar at the end of March on high volume is a clear bear
signal and he divergence of price and momentum as measured by RSI'
I give this statement the chartist bull**** of the year award! His target
of 240p is ludicrous given that CPW is going to be a mega company
Gyrus heads very nicely
higher too. The only slight disappointment is
Wolfson but I doubt it'll be long
before it fires up again.
Fenner is still on a
breakout and I expect to see a shootup to 230 any day. Recent buys
Latchways and
Resources IT are being a little
slow today but both have plenty of upside remaining.
Wednesday 12th April
Looks like the favourite idea is to do a movie and a meal on Friday and
some shopping in town on Saturday (luckily the Mrs won't be able to spend much
as my credit card is maxed out because I've paid for all the seminar hotel costs
on it which comes out at quite a huge amount!)
Whatever I always like Easter - it's like Christmas but without all the
hassle and reasonable weather. It's getting milder so we may go off on our bikes
with the youngster. He's started to learn the odd word or two - he can say
'Light' now -= seems fascinated with them.
Meanwhile poor 120-year-old pussy Domino is finding it harder to keep out
of his clutches as he gets faster. She's found a spot in the middle of the bed
where he can't get at her!
Looks like it is time to short the NHS - the missus has just heard on the
news that Tony Blair has described it as 'challenging'.
Now here's some hot news from The Apprentice which I have lifted from The
Sun! FEISTY Apprentice favourite Ruth Badger has "fired" her husband - and told
pals she is a lesbian.
Ambitious Ruth, 27, is battling it out to be hired by Sir Alan Sugar on
the BBC2 telly hit. But behind her steely determination she was hiding a secret.
The brunette has split from her husband of four years, Ian Badger, and is
believed to have started divorce proceedings. She has also told close friends
that she is gay.'
Well, looks like she's the winner then - what better publicity could you
want for the winner of the series? As I said last week, she's a natural salesman
and I'd give her a job any day.
I expect to try and increase my sports betting winnings soon! If you to
join want and get an account open click the link below:
According to Barclays it is ISAable, if the stock is listed on another
exchange as well as AIM. But it seems the second exchange of MXP is not on the
list of qualified exchanges of the Revenue.
This may also be happening with other stocks. I am wondering now, how far
one can trust the brokers to be implementing the rules correctly. What are the
real rules even.
Hi Mo - I contacted Barclays about this - remember a while back I
challenged them on whether we could hold Dragon Oil and Aminex in Isas and they
backed down and agreed. And surprising though it is to me, you can hold Max
Petroleum in an ISA!!
Here is Barclays reply: If the parent company is listed on a recognised
stock exchange then the secondary listing is also ISA eligible. This would apply
to all ISA's, though each ISA provider also has terms and conditions which the
secondary listing would have to meet.
stocks. However, if you are interested in specific stocks, do get in touch and I
can check these out on a case by case basis.
With regard to MXP, we are confident that as the company has a primary
listing in Germany then it's secondary AIM listing is also ISA eligible, under
Revenue Regulations.
So if you think you can't hold some stocks in an ISA maybe you can, I
shall be re-looking at stuff I put in my SIPP because I thought I could not have
them in an ISA!
Emily writes: Good Morning
Robbie - how's the cat? I have just read your page from yesterday including the
bits from your mail. David said he bought Carphone Warehouse and sold it when it
reached 20% profit.
I know this is a popular practice but I really don't understand the logic
behind it. P.S - I do understand though the bit in your book about the cat
licking the jelly of the food :-) Mine does that as well.
Hi Emily.. well I guess this system works for him though I certainly try and
keep winners for longer.
Robert writes: Enjoy your
posts. I also hold Tullow. It's a great share. I think any prospective take-out
price is dependent on the price of oil. So it might be better to hope it won't
get taken out.
Better not tempt fate. If one is patient as you'll have found, then good
shares rise in waves, so you may be relying on short term trades to bolster your
portfolio at other times and then the good shares like Tullow suddenly have big
rises. You can rely on good shares to perform like this.
Hi Robert agree with most of what you say except in a bear market things get
very different!
So a new trade to report a short in
Laing (LNGO) and shorted early
today at 316 for
£30 a point. Target
280, stop
330. (By short I mean I am
betting on it to go down) Given my recent shorts record is rubbish, it could be
a good idea to go against me and buy it!
However this one really looks to have run out of steam - it's in a not so
hot sector at the moment and there is some big selling coming in - it's already
down a few points since I sold today!
I took profits on Hikma,
De La Rue and
Victrex yesterday afternoon -
could have made much bigger profits on each but never mind - it's never possible
to always get out at the very top..
Hikma profits are £870
(sold at 433) and De La Rue
profits £180 - (sold at
545). Victrex profit was
£200 (close at
707).
This morning I took profits on Paragon
and Brixton. Paragon profits are
£1,860 (closed at
699) and Brixton profit is
£1,020 (closed at
495) That's a total profit taken
for the website of £4,130.
So, plenty of good news and bad news on the portfolio today? Good or bad
news first? Yay, the good! And that's
Atkins where I am now sitting on huge profits of nearly £4,000 after it
leapt more than 25 points today on announcement of a big contract win. I am up
more than 130 points now! I am thinking of taking the profit but it looks so
strong there could be even more to come.
Good news too from Dragon Oil
which advances bigtime today after yesterday's statement. The website sits on
profits of more than £12,000 on this one now!
And good news from Tullow
which has been rampant over the last few days and just keeps going! Profits here
of over £3,000.
Good news too from Abacus
which is now climbing rapidly after a decent statement - it was worth all the
patience on this one.
Recent buy Latchways is
doing OK, should be all right though not surprised to see the odd profit taker
and other recent buy REI remains
around where I bought.
The day traders are having their fun with my favourites
Wolfson,
CSR and
Burren - but all three remain
superb long-term holds for me even given I've quadrupled my money in Burren and
doubled it in CSR.
All these shares can move loads of points on sentiment but for me it
matters not because unless a savage bear market strikes there is more in all of
them! Tuesday 11th April
The Mrs seemed quite impressed with all my cleaning and ironing efforts -
though now I find out I could have spared myself all that time I spent ironing
C's clothes. 'Oh no, I don't iron his sleeping outfits,' said Elizabeth. Doh!
I'm slightly miffed she hasn't cancelled the cleaning lady due this
morning. Apparently 'The cupboards need cleaning out' - there's always something
that needs doing isn't there?
I'll soon be meeting the guy who put a sheep in my garden (see last week).
I did get my own back on him a few weeks later when he came to a party of mine.
On telling him what he'd been eating he reckoned it was a fair return...
and that in fact the cat treats were delicious with hummus!
They've got a strange but interesting niche market. They produce equipment
that ensures builders and workmen etc still have their lives intact if they fall
off structures.
So it's fall protection - there are more applications than you could
imagine. For example workmen working on wings of aircraft!
Looks like the market for their services is expanding judging by this
week's superb trading statement and it seems to be the shares are in the middle
of a re-rating which would fairly take them up to 800-850.
My second buy is a return to an old favourite investment trust -
Resources Investment Trust (REI).
I bought 3,500 at
237p. Target
295, stop
220.
Now I admit I really wished I hadn't taken profits on these at , er 140p
last year because if I'd carried on holding them I'd have made a packet.
Top ten holdings include Max Petroleum, Emerald Energy, Great Panther
Resources, Yukon Zinc, and Yamana Gold - ie all companies that are in great
demand.
As with all IT's, the price moves up or down depending on how well or not
the shares are performing. The company reports its net asset value every day so
it's easy to keep in touch with how the holdings are doing. Of course it's gone
up a lot but in this current bull run there could be a long way still to go.
Finally I could not resist topping up in
Wolfson (WLF) and I bought a
further £30 a point spreadbet at
430p. Target
600, stop
395.
The only reason the share has gone down is a broker downgrade and what's
the best thing to do when a share sinks just because of a broker downgrade?
That's right - buy a load more!
It's really annoying when brokers give out sell advice - it just makes
them look good because they can show their punters how good they are.
I've taken profits in Northern,
my main reasoning is the inability for it to break over the sticky 140 area so
for now I'm out. Sold at 138.25.
That gives profits of £912
on the shares bought at 120 and a
£61 loss on those bought at
140 to bank a total profit of
£851.
Elsewhere a mixed but still pretty positive day.
Carphone Warehouse is going for
an initially loss-making grab to get as many broadband customers as possible.
Tullow Oil continues its
amazing run and it looks like my initial 400 target will be reached without a
bid! A reassuring statement from Dragon
Oil today sees shorters closing and the share price rising - about time
too! I didn't really have too many doubts about staying put here, it's a
good-looking story. Wish I had bought more yesterday!
Vislink continues to be a
bit weak but with such a bright future I will hold through current turbulence.
Good to see my latest high-risk pick breaking out.Monday 10th April
I've tried my hand at something completely new this weekend: yes, I have
been a busy housewife! I have washed clothes and ironed them, hovered, polished,
mopped and generally cleaned. And you know what? I quite enjoyed it!
I must have ironed dozens of the young lad's clothes. How many clothes has
he got for goodness sake - he's only 16 months old and he has four times as many
clothes as I have. I'm also not quite sure why his night attire needs ironing?
Must be some point to it I suppose.
All this rubbish about bird flu! To get it you literally have to snog then
have sex with a dead chicken. And if that turns you on, you really need help -
and fast! Just cook it and you'll be fine. Also there are only 100 reported
deaths IN THE WHOLE OF THE WORLD! It really isn't a pandemic.
The newspapers are gradually getting worse. The NOW was particularly poor.
Some soap star.. TAKES DRUGS. Wow, big deal who cares for God's sake?
Boris Johnstone's having it off with some other woman. Yawn, next story
please. Hang on, what's this - a free DVD.... of flipping Up Pompeii! How old is
that show? Must be 20 years old and it wasn't funny then - at this rate the next
DVD giveaway will be The Black and White Minstrel Show!
Doesn't mean to say there won't be opportunities out there though and
there are several shares on my shortlist. It's just that the entry point just
isn't quite right on any of them and so I haven't bought anything today yet.
One should never be tempted to buy a share just for relieving boredom! I
only enter trades when I think the time is right I am happy to keep my powder
dry if it isn't. So many investors I think make the mistake of dealing just for
the sake of it.
As I predicted this week's launch of 'free' broadband by
Carphone Warehouse will lift the
price and this great company continues to be a core holding - I expect a rise to
at least 400p by Autumn.
The other star of the day is
Fenner which has broken out at last opening up 230.
Charter, my biggest spreadbet
holding continues to bring in the money very nicely with further rises - 800
plus looks a certainty.
Tullow Oil is another one
that just keeps going and I hold on grimly! Not sure what's up with
Dragon but it's been slipping a
bit - but on balance I'll hold for the next statement that's due shortly.
Walker Crips which moves quite
fast is down a bit but then again it's not surprising to see that after the big
recent rises. Still a happy holder.
Wolfson has not
surprisingly succumbed to profit taking after mammoth rises however again here I
am holding long-term for the bigger gains to come.
Very nice 70 point rise by Hikma
in the last few days and that's going strong.
Interserve has proved rather dull
and is stuck in a very tight 7 point range. If it can break back above 390 then
it should begin to shoot up.
Friday 7th April
As I owned the cafe and Elizabeth did all the other shopping I have not
had to think about food shopping for many years.
This morning I had to otherwise starve and I forgot to do an internet order.
What a palava it all is! It took me ages... and the queues and the
hassle... that is REAL work, trading is a doddle compared to shopping. I gave up
in the end and bought some ready meals for the weekend. They're back on Monday!
Hurrah! I can now put another £7,000 in my ISA and I just have... oooh
what to spend the money on?? There's nothing like ISAs - they've saved me multi
thousands in tax liability over the years.
Today I have bought the favourites again for a fiver at 63 but also hedged
with a buy of the sps for a fiver at 76! So what I ideally need is three or so
favourites to do well and a couple of big odds winners!
Time for some Grand National Spreadbets! Of course National betting has to
be taken as entertainment only. After all your fancy can easily just fall over
at any time!
Clan Royal and Hedgehunter of course, the two favourites could go well,
it's just that it's the National and you want a better price than 5-1! So I've
gone for three to be somewhere in the top four or five (well hopefully win)
So my Grand National tips are: Numbersix, Jack High and Rosscomm. All
between 12/1 and 25/1 which are decent prices.
I bought them on the spreads at 18, 15, and 12 respectively with Sporting
Index. You get 100 points for the winner, 50 for second, 30 3rd, 20 4th 10 5th
and 5 for 6th.
So I win on each if they are in the first four. Sporting and Bet Hi Lo
also have a number of interesting spreads! So I've also sold the sps of the
first four added up together for a fiver at 91 - ie I need the sps of the first
four home to add up to less than 91.
And I've sold the winning weight at 153! (That's in pounds) for £15 a point.
Only a small downside here (164). Given the winners rarely
have top weight this seems a fair bet.
I shall report back on Monday with news on whether I did my
brains or whether more profit went into the Burns bank. If you want to have some fun
and spreadbet on sports with me and grab some free bets then click the link
below:
I wanted to say 'Hey naked trader!' but If I got it wrong and it wasn't
you! It wouldn't have been fun explaining what I was on about.'
Nader - just as well you didn't it wasn't me! The Mrs and baby are in
Ireland and luckily for me the last time I was in Isleworth was when I worked
for BskyB years ago. Thank Goodness I'm not there anymore - what a s***hole!
(The Sky offices and Isleworth).
A great end to what has been a brilliant week. My spreadbets in particular have
stormed upwards all week with huge gains for
Charter,
Shanks,
CSR,
Wolfson and
Walker Crips with around £10,000
profits piling into my Cantor Index account this week alone. Most of that lot
are holding their gains nicely with Charter still going up.
The only question I have to ask myself is: when to bank the profits? I
think the answer is not quite yet!
Barclays is going very well with bid rumours beginning to gather pace -
another 100p in there I think for the takeout price - likely to happen soon I
reckon.
VP reported in line trading
statement today.. as I'm up nearly trebled my money I am beginning to be tempted
to take profits but there are bid prospects here so I shall stay put for the
moment.
Havelock and
Vislink are both a little dull
right now - Investors Chronicle rate them both as good value and I agree -
patience is going to be required and I have lots of it! Vislink is pushing
up now and I expect a push through 59p soonish.
Shanks is going great guns
- another possible bid target here and I'm hoping for a push over 200p. The oils
go well today - with Tullow
steaming ahead!
Thursday 6th April
However my ancient cat Domino is loving it and purring away - no being
endlessly chased around the flat by Christopher who keeps trying to rugby tackle
her - he is desperate to bury his head in her fur. She is also enjoying lying on
the terrace by the window getting endless admiring comments from those passing
by.
As I sit here in the trading office all I can hear is 'What a beautiful
cat..' 'Ah, lovely pussy..' 'Hallo, gorgeous...' etc etc.... She certainly
doesn't look her age - possibly something to do with complete lack of any
stress.
Thank goodness Alan got rid of. er.. whatever his name is last night.
Another one of those irritating people who's been on a course and talks
management gobbledegook.
And for goodness sake - fancy printing up loads of leaflets and then not
giving them out! Not that the free hand massages were such a great idea anyway.
Ruth and Paul are coming out as the strongest for me - I think I would
give either the job of managing the cafe! The worst left now is that awful
Scottish woman who keeps on moaning endlessly about everything and everyone. Who
would want to work with her?
I bought the favourite spread for at 62 for £6 - that means for example
two winning favs and a second and I break even - any better than that and I make
money. It's 25 points for first, 10 for second and 5 for third place. Let you
know how I got on tomorrow.
Another wonderful day. The portfolio is doing well but there's nothing I
fancy buying or selling today. The two big stars are the chips
CSR and
Wolfson. I've pretty much doubled
my money on CSR and the various website positions on CSR now show profits of
more than £25,000! Very nice!
As usual I stay with my winners and this again proves the best plan. Hang
onto the winners and you can make excellent profits.
Talking of hanging onto winners
Charter is also booming today and looks good for much more to come - glad
I topped up - I have a massive £60 a point spreadbet long on this (more than
£40,000 worth of exposure) and feel very confident of big gains.
Wolfson again is a huge
winner today and heading rapidly towards 500p! I am beginning to wonder whether
my 600p year end target may end up being reached by Easter rather than Xmas.
Again a big spread position on this really bringing home the bacon.
Walker Crips not
surprisingly is getting the tree-shake treatment today. Still expect to get the
450p I'm after! Climbing well today is
Hikma - glad I held on - and so too
Carphone Warehouse which is
shortly to launch its broadband service.
Pantheon is leaping up after a lean spell and Marchpole continues to show
signs it's about to leap higher. Wednesday 5th April
They run an art gallery in London which is a risky but also extremely
profitable business - they deal in very expensive hard to find paintings so they
might only sell a few a year but each sale generates a big profit.
He's also a wine buff and owns many hundreds of bottles and treated me to
a very nice 1991 vintage which was amazing followed by a 1988 dessert wine which
was great too!
Those went down very well with roast lamb and roast potatoes. The wine hit
me when I went to bed and I had to keep getting up to drink water.
It's always great to meet people who really enjoy what they do and they
really love running the gallery. They also travel to many places to go to trade
fairs and they're always off on trips. And they have a house in France!
Alright for some eh.. but like me they got out of the rat race and found
their own business and that really is the only way to make real money.
He told me about an interesting share as well funnily enough - a high risk
one that he has a bit of decent info on. Once I've done my research on it I'll
pass it on to those of you on the e-mail list as it's too risky to mention here.
Top marks for today to Wolfson
- talked about in depth at the first ever seminar when it was 287 - now it's 445
- the push through 440 has really taken place now and my year end 600p target is
firmly on the agenda.
Fellow chip stock CSR is
also soaring - my position has always been to hold this one through the
volatility and this is paying off now.
Good trading statement from
Victrex is seeing the shares very strong today.
Vislink fights back and is going
higher again.
Walker Crips is holding
onto the big gains yesterday afternoon very well - I never expected a big rise
so fast! Came up as a buy at the last seminar at 360 and it's now 435!
Havelock is trying to
decide whether to go higher.. I'm sure it'll make the right move! Really I
couldn't be a lot happier with my lot and I'll stick with them though the
drunken haze.. and sorry that's it, it's off to bed for the afternoon - thank
goodness I don't have to work for a living!Tuesday 4th April
She's feeling the pinch and I guess so must most other pensioners. How are
they supposed to pay these socking great amounts of money? As she also says, how
come she has to pay so much more for so much less service?
She also had to queue for 3 hours at the council office to buy a parking
permit because they have decided to make it pay and display in her road - for no
reason other than money raising that I can see - her street is never full.
Why do we have to pay so much money?
As the Bumper Book of Government waste says, one of the main reasons for
big increases in tax is the non jobs, absenteeism and generous pensions.
The average salary for all the non jobs advertised in Guardian Society in
2005 was £35,500 - nearly ten grand more than the mean private sector wage? I
could go on but read it for yourself -
Oh what a lovely boy! We're both crazy about him - he is such fun and
charms the pants off everyone. As my mum said he is going to break some hearts
when he gets older. I already saw him eyeing up the girls in Starbucks
yesterday!
It started the day up then the inevitable results day profit-takers came
in. Happy to sit this one out for some decent gains to come this year. The
outlook statement looked good and I can see these up at 250p by year end.
And I simply could not resist a top up at what I think is the bottom of
the profit taking and I bought 3,000
more shares at 160.4p - same
target and stop as yesterday's buy. The ADVFN trade page has my trade down as a
sell - but it is definitely a buy!!
Two top brokers have already come out with buy recommendations on the
stock. The beauty of this one is downside is extremely limited. I'd be very
surprised if it went below 150 again.
Big rises for some stocks today.
Brixton is charging up - glad I kept my nerve and held.
Charter goes well too - confident
of 800p to come here. Victrex
going nicely ahead of results tomorrow.
Abacus has been quiet of
late - not much to say here except it still looks good value and I hold for
medium term gains I think are to come.
Market maker Winterfloods started a tree-shake in
Vislink this morning - treeshakes
always good news for holders as it means a good rise is on the way!
Walker Crips still going like a
good un with 450p looking an easy target.
Marchpole has burst back
into life and is climbing higher - as I said before I was happy to be patient
here and if it can conquer the 22p area then 25p is the next stop before opening
up my eventual target of 30p.
CSR and
Wolfson are down a bit but the
chips are always crazy/volatile.. long-term trend is definitely up. If CSR dips
I might try another day trade! It's only a matter of time before
Burren leaps up past 1000p again. Monday 3rd April
It was a bit weird saying goodbye to the place that we spent a lot of
energy on over four years - I'm proud of what we achieved there, all the great
people we met and the ups and downs of it all.
Now we're out of there I can start to share a few stories which I'll run
over the next few days. When we bought the cafe we had no idea living above it
was a crazy alcoholic guy who wanted the place closed down and to the right was
an old lady who hated it too.
I pulled up outside the cafe one night to unload some stuff and the bloke
opened the window and yelled 'oi, you c***!' at me.
But we start a new life now - myself as a full time trader with no
distractions (except for the lovely Christopher and cat Domino) and Elizabeth as
a full-time mum. We both love doing new things so I'm sure we'll soon be up to
something or other!
Remember last year I dissed the boat race saying something along the lines
of how dull a two horse race blah blah...I take it all back.
The boats came charging by.. most of the people were yelling 'Cambridge!'
Of course it only took them a minute to come by but it was quite thrilling. The
water was very choppy though they just missed a hailstorm.
The Grand National is this weekend - I'll be doing a spot or two of
spreadbetting on it - did well the last few years! If you want to have some fun
and spreadbet on sports with me and grab some free bets then click the link
below:
I've been blowing hot and cold on this one! I sold a while back because I
felt there was simply a lack of interest in the shares and couldn't see them
going up. However I had a good look today and decided the shares surely must be
more fairly valued in the 180-200 area.
My guess is that Havelock will report increased profits of 6m from 5m last
time which makes the market cap of just over 50m too low. If I'm right and there
is also a good outlook included with the statement it might just attract some
buyers.
But it is risky given that profit-takers often move in on the day of
results and even good results sees shares dip. But I'll take the chance here - a
downbeat statement is very unlikely which limits any major downside tomorrow. I
bought 5,000 shares at
154.95p - target
180p stop
135p. We'll find out tomorrow
whether this was a good idea - or not!
Some profit-taking today - in companies that have done well for me but
seemed to have reached the top of their range for now..
First Dignity where the
shares are just sitting there for the moment - this company has brought me great
profits ever since they were floated and I am sure they will bring me more but
for now I banked a profit of £620
by closing at 466p.
Second I've sold some of my MTL
to take profits of £2,318. My
main reason for profit taking now on some of my shares is the inability for the
shares to hold over the 500p mark.
Elsewhere recent buy Walker Crips
is going great guns! Bought in the 380s it's already marched up into the 420s
and shows no sign of stopping. It went up 25p on Friday alone.
The biggest star today is Atkins
up a mighty amount since Thursday. It's bust straight through 800 to 830 which
opens up 860 next. This is proving an excellent spread buy where I'm already up
£2,000.
CSR is doing very well to
hold onto some huge recent gains!
Chesnara is one where patience is paying off - I kept holding during the
quiet times now after great results it is really busting out!
Fenner is going well again
- looks like it's going to have another go at the sticky 210 area. Everything
else is going pretty well with no real disappointments!Thursday 30th March
This week I have a day job for one day only - that is serving
customers at a cafe with coffee, panini, shepherds pie or whatever else they
fancy?
Why? Because at 5pm on Friday we complete the sale! So Mrs NT and I
thought it would be fun for us to spend the last day behind the counter together
and say goodbye to our regulars.
It should be fun. Of course my trading desk there will still be open but I
just won't have the time to write an update.. any trades on Friday will be
reported on Monday.
It will definitely be weird handing over the keys at 5pm and letting the
manager and her backer take our baby but you have to move on sometimes! I'll
miss being able to have a coffee and food whenever I want and also the banter of
the place.
We can be proud of what we achieved. We arrived at a run down place doing
£300 a day and transformed it into a lively upbeat cafe taking £1,000 a day.
It shows perhaps why sometimes you can buy 'recovery plays' in the market!
I guess if the cafe was a public company we'd have sent the shares from 100p to
350p!
We will now become customers and we're looking forwards to seeing what
direction the new owners take it... I will let you all know!!
Hope you find something exciting to do on Friday instead of reading my
ramblings....Why not catch up on the latest celebrity sightings in Heat
Magazine.. got to be more exciting than the Investors Chronicle hasn't it?
I think I have now found a spot on top of one of the shelves where
Christopher can't see the mouse. I have been to PC World and bought 2 more
(mice?) - at this rate I am going to buy shares in PC World or the companies
that make the mouses or mice.
Another amusing edition of The Apprentice.Hurrah! Goodbye Jo at last! I
guess they couldn't really keep her in any longer even for entertainment value.
I thought the Brummie woman was excellent at selling - I'd give her a job
and put her in the running to be in the top 3. The Scots lassie seemed a bit at
sea as a leader and should be next to go.
It was very entertaining watching them sell cars wasn't it? Can you
imagine them trying to make the most money by buying and selling shares? I can
imagine them being in the red quite quickly!
A completely different Steve
writes:I would like to ask you why, with reference to WHY and VLK, do share
prices sometimes decrease after releasing great results?
Steve the phrase used is 'better to travel than to arrive' Ie, some people
prefer taking profits on actual news on the basis it is now all in the price.
You can see it every day - good companies get knocked on results day even if the
results are great.
A medium-term value investor like myself will just hold because what
happens with the good companies is the price simply starts to rise again a day
or two after the results have been and gone as have the profit-takers.
So I bought Walker Crips (WCW)
- no NOT Walkers Crisps!! They are not an exciting ready salted crisp maker -
but in fact on the face of it a pretty dull stockbroker/fund manager.
Boring that may be but profits are leaping here and if the next results
are as good as they look like they are going to be this one looks lovely and
undervalued.
I remember talking about this one at the seminar and many of us liked the
look of it. True - it has gone up a bit recently but deservedly so and not
nearly enough.
I bought 1,750 shares at
382p just before the market
closed yesterday - my hand was forced as it was rising rapidly - already up 6p
on the day. Target 420 stop
363.
This morning too the shares are climbing fast. The downside? Well, there
are only three market makers so they can mess the price around as they like -
raise it fast and drop it fast.
But I'll take that chance with so much potential upside here. I just wish
I'd bloody bought on the day of the seminar and got a lower price!
Elsewhere a mixed bag. Burren
reported and has been up and down like the proverbial whore's drawers. As I
always say this is a long-termer for me so these short-term trading movements
don't bother me much.
Some good gains today elsewhere...
Charter looks like it's about to roll much higher. More excellent gains
for the chips CSR and
Wolfson. A break though 440p for
Wolfson looks significant if it can hold it.
VP continues to be a star
performer and possible bid claims here if it can follow the example of Brandon
Hire. Mouchel Parkman looks on an
excellent breakout which opens up a good chance of 400p within the next 3
months. Nice one this and bought at the second seminar I think.
Carphone Warehouse is going
very nicely now. Dragon fights
back after a bad day yesterday and
Hunting is approaching all time highs.
Fenner's had a couple of
down days but 190 now proves a good floor with 210 the top. Let's hope we get
back near the top of the range!
Directors have been buying more
Marchpole - they seem to come in when it dips. With buybacks set to take
effect too the 18-20 area looks a good floor with the 22-23 area needed to be
broken to move any higher.
Still waiting for Interserve
to kick into life, someone give it a kick for me!! I still feel confident with
my recent buying of Vislink and
expect this one to burst into life at some stage - it's already started to gain
after the post results profit taking.
So a little bit of a mixed bag but generally pretty positive.Wednesday 29th March
It was a big learning experience: we made a lot of money and sold it at an
excellent price. Like any share even long-term sometimes you have to take
profits.
Trouble is as soon as Christopher was born Elizabeth didn't have the time
for it anymore and neither did I and though we had a manager you know the old
saying.. while the cat's away the mice will play...
I shall regail you with a few cafe tales after the money's in our account
next week (just to be on the safe side). One of the most interesting things I
learned actually helped me with buying and selling shares - learning how to run
a business, doing the books and trying to grow it proved invaluable.
Oh dear! I am now having to use the baby mouse I bought for Christopher
which surprisingly actually works - problem is it's rather small and a bit
fiddly.
He has managed to despatch yet another mouse down the loo. I have now
written a large sign above the loo. 'CLOSE THE LID!'
This morning he took my keys and tried to open the front door. I can't
believe he's trying to leave home already.. how ungrateful!
Jamie writes: I'm just
getting into share trading and have recently acquired a trading account from TD
Waterhouse. However I travel quite regularly with my job and then take extended
holidays (e.g. 4 weeks a time).
Hi Jamie.. Ah, I think you need a trailing stop loss! Trailing stops simply go up under a rising price and then you get stopped
out at a price you set. Or else just set normal stop losses and ask TD to stop
you out if need be.
Top notch results from Vislink
this morning - anyone can see these are undervalued - a ridiculous market cap!
Only the profits announced are in the price now and only just. Further projected
increases are simply not in the price and this is now an absurdly undervalued
company.
Today is the usual scared investors taking profits on results day. I think
they will regret it! You've got to stay with a company that is so on the up like
this one.
Burren looks very nervous
ahead of results - as a long-term hold for me and given I'm in at 241p and 466p
I'll stay put! Some bloke is leaving to join another company - the price will be
all over the place for a few days. As a long-termer, makes no odds to me!
Dragon also experiencing
turbulence but I'll ride that out for smoother air too.
Tullow reported today - I
am no expert at reading oil reports. All I know is I'd be surprised if this one
wasn't taken out this year and I expect to wake up one morning and see the price
up 20%!
Nice jump for CSR this
morning - I always saw this one at around the 1400 level and believe it is only
a matter of time (given a vicious bear market doesn't start).
Hikma reported excellent
results this morning and glad I held on - an easy 450 coming. Charter continues
to look good and it won't be long till it sprints up to the 800p area.
Marchpole confirmed
everything's OK this morning - no nasty surprises on the way which should see
the 19-20 level hold before the next push up - patience now required.
Carphone is busting out
over 310 which looks bullish. MTL
Instruments has done the post results shakeout thing and is resuming the
upwards trend.
Mouchel looks like a move
to 350 is about to happen. Interserve
continues to tread water ahead of what I feel is a good move higher.
Tuesday 28th March
So Saturday afternoon we sat in two huge armchairs at a hotel for a long
relax and afternoon tea followed by the movie Capote - which I highly recommend
although it's not exactly a romantic comedy!
On Sunday as well as mother's day it was my mum's 83rd birthday so all of
us went out for lunch and it was all very nice, plenty of cards and presents.
She's amazing for her age, very fit and active. Wonder whether I'll still
be trading shares when I'm 83? She does some pretty good magic tricks that
she used to play on me and C loves them - hope I still have sleight of hand at
her age...
The river view in the new place just gets better and better - been
watching the boat crews practicing hard for the boat race on Saturday. They
should fly past our window for a few seconds on the day itself...!
As there are now quite a few of you on the waiting list the next seminar,
I've decided to go ahead with it and the next date will be Friday June 9th at
the same venue close to Heathrow Airport.
And yet again I hadn't bought them yet!!! I even remember saying at the
seminar: 'Brandon Hire looks like a great bid target though it's good value
anyway...'
And today they are up 25p. I'm rather hoping someone at the seminar bought
some! I know one thing: at the next seminar I'm going to make sure I've bought
the shortlisted shares already!
A bit of profit taking today. Although I really like the company and it's
a good hold, I decided to sell my Aga
at 387.12p to take profits of
£674.
My main reasoning is there's been a nice rise pre and post results but the
price is struggling to move any higher for right now. I suspect I will be back
in soon enough.
Another pretty good day for the portfolio. Most of my holds are going
well: among them Charter is
beginning another run up - I really love this one and bought some more at the
seminar!
Tullow Oil continues to be
a star - roll on 400p! I've forgotten to mention
Costain recently - nicely in
profit on all positions it was worth the slightly painful wait.
Carphone Warehouse holds
well - a burst through 310 should see considerable gains. The chips
Wolfson and
CSR are also holding pretty well,
Wolfson needs to get through that 400p mark.
On the slightly disappointing side is
Northern - although I feel it'll
bounce strongly off 120p. Some small profit taking in
MTL Instruments, nothing much to
worry about there - a great long-termer.
White Young Green reported
pretty good results today - good growth is set to come from various acquisions -
an excellent one to simply sit and hold and get good growth.
Recent seminar buy Interserve
is sitting in the 380s - but I'm confident this one has potential to get to 450.
Burren reports shortly - I guess
it will probably go up a lot... or down a lot. No matter a long-term gem.
Monday 27th March
Thanks Mary and agree - the Taxpayers Alliance already runs a website and more
details in the Bumper Book of Waste.
Looks undervalued at this sort of level and 450 looks an easy target given
a 3-6 month view with little downside - it only came back from 400p recently
because it went ex dividend by 14p.
We spent quite a while on it at the seminar and it passed all my tests on
companies worth buying. Plenty of good assured contracts and I suspect more on
the way which in time will help the share price higher. Most of the market
makers are on 390 so a break through there will be a bullish sign.
Thursday afternoon I also topped up on
Vislink (VLK) which reports
shortly. I bought another 9,000
shares at 56p on the afternoon
before the seminar.
As you know I'm quite keen on this one and it looks significantly
undervalued given the amount of good news emanating from the company. Target and
stop the same as the other buy.
Pretty good news from the portfolio over the last few days while I've been
away...MTL Instruments reported
some fine results this morning.
Wolfson has been showing a
lot of strength - 340 is definitely as resistance level - if we can get through
that it looks good.
Burren has been going well
too today. Tullow carries on its
excellent growth too. Carphone Warehouse
and Aga are holding onto recent
gains in a weak market. All in all, pretty happy still.
Thursday 23rd March
Charter also rose nicely
late yesterday and it's about to breakout again. A really big mover today is
Mouchel Parkman (glad to say this
was bought at my first ever seminar!) up on decent contract news. Super share
this one with much more to come.
Hunting is rising nicely
again and 400 could be in the bag soon.
Gyrus is coming back. Victrex
has been putting on a good spurt and now hovers over 800p. Nice.
White Young Green is settling
well over 400p ahead of results.
Excellent pick AGA is
inching towards 400p - I am waiting with baited breath to see whether it can get
above - if it can 430 looks a good new target.
Wendesday 22rd March
Makes you start to wonder about other decisions they've made. Wonder if
whoever makes the speed cameras has been bunging money.
Hey, maybe if I slip G.Brown a £100 he'll stop charging the ludicrous
'stamp duty' on share buying. The Budget will be the usual farce today.
I read that 'ITV has signed up BBC scheduler Priya Singh to run off-peak
scheduling.' What a bloody easy job that is! Just stick any old crap on as
that's what they always do cos if we're at home during the day we're obviously
half wits!
The job I've always wanted is editor of a live football game. Money for
nothing. I just stroll in and say: 'just broadcast the game in full' - and then
off for some tea and toast!
However I suspect it is more likely to get through and go onwards and
upwards which would see shorters having to close out.
I have quite a long 'shortlist' of shares I want to buy which I'll be
discussing with those of you coming to the seminar on Friday. Just a matter of
timing on them and would love some of them to fall back a bit.
Quite a few rising in the weakish market today.
Carphone Warehouse continues to
please with some nice daily rises - a break through the 310 area will really see
them motoring.
Dragon Oil is rising fast
as I write - glad I wasn't tempted to take the rather large profits that have
built up! Both Paragon and
Victrex are really bringing in
nice profits for me now!
Two on the to worry about list -
Pantheon and Gyrus. Both
seem to be suffering from sellers but despite the fact they are quite big
'liquid' shares they are both having problems with liquidity in the market. I'm
holding onto both though they have moved to amber from green!
Charter is beginning to
motor back up after a ludicrous note from a broker is now out of the way - an
easy over 800p target here. Just sit and wait!
AGA carries on looking nice and
strong with 400 looming into view.
Tuesday 21st March
My experience of business tells me not to put a penny into this and that
the whole thing will be a disaster. Why? Firstly if you find a 'gap in the
market that's been around for years' especially in the competitive publishing
business there's a good reason it's not been filled.
Secondly what child in that age group is going to be interested in a
weekly 'newspaper'. I wager hardly any! They're much more interested in things
that we don't want them to be interested in and a newspaper aimed at them is
likely to be chucked straight in the bin.
Piers Morgan's book is a great read though - a fascinating behind the
scenes look at the power of newspapers and the vacuousness of celebrity.
Thanks to reader Laurent for some advice on getting Christopher to stop
running away with my mouse.
'Stop using fancy technology and get an old-fashioned mouse,' he wrote.
Laurent was right and I did yesterday. I turned my back for one minute and
the mouse and all its packaging had disappeared. I soon guessed where it was -
yes, down the toilet along with another two tops from the radiators.
I now have a door to my trading office to try and keep him out when I'm
busy. No luck - he's already found a way to bypass security and quickly learned
it was easy to get the door open, run behind the computer and start pulling out
wires. Oh well, he's worth it the lovely boy. Always trying to feed me.
However to allow her to get away scott free, with calling the characters
of eastenders 'the dregs of society', tended to demonstrate a wimpish side to
your character not previously witnessed. Perhaps you were scarred as a child not
to take on fiesty women.
Point her in my direction and I'd be happy to elaborate on the little
known virtues of everyones ideal grandma 'Dot Cotton' a truely desirable mother
in law 'Pauline Fowler' the worlds most sympathetic landlady 'Peggy Mitchell' or
'Phil & Grant Mitchell' as any fathers perfect offsprings.
Right, that said, I should perhaps admit to having no strong views about
eastenders or to being afraid of fiesty women, especially when they are at 'arms
length' thru the internet. Face to face with Kate, who I'm sure is a beautiful
and lovely lady, would call for a more conciliatory demeanour, or to put it
another way ' Wimpish'.
So Robbie you have been nominated, and in my capaity as a revered
subservient nonentity, I formally welcome you to the ever expanding,
predominantly male fraternity, 'The Grand Order of Wimps'
Thanks Frank... anything you say is OK with me! If it's not too wimpy to
say this: I don't watch EastEnders or any other soaps because they are a waste
of time. You only have one life and I don't want to have wasted months of it
watching crap!
Cyril writes: Read your
webpage most days - always very interesting. Hope to get a copy of your book
soon. Re your visit to Waterstones. Have you ever considered announcing yourself
when in a book store that carries your book and offering to sign copies?
Normally goes down well.
Cyril I am far too shy to do such a thing. But remember my publisher only
pays me £1.67 a copy - I'd be better off standing outside and selling a few Big
Issues!
My plan was for a day trade only because CSR had just been way oversold. I
feel although long-term the shares have got a long way to go I should follow my
initial plan and close out. Of course my long-term trades in CSR stay in place.
I shall be looking at another exciting day trade (or three day trade)
soon. I think it's pretty healthy to have got to 6,000 and then get a pullback
or two.
After a pretty poor start shares are gradually improving as the day goes
on. I have a good shortlist of stuff I want to buy which will feature at
Friday's seminar and actually if they all pullback a bit that would be lovely as
I'll get in at better prices!
As it's a pretty subdued day no real star performers in the portfolio
today - good to see yesterday's top up
Carphone Warehouse still going up in a falling market and it would be
great to see 300p becoming a firm bottom for the shares. (And there's nothing
like a firm bottom).
White Young Green continues
to sneak higher pre results and the move over 400p looks excellent. Still nicely
undervalued and could rocket on good results. The market-makers look desperately
short, only dealing in 150 shares to buy on line but happy for me to sell them
10,000 on line which they are not getting for the moment anyway!
Some recent big risers are holding onto their gains which is good news.
The chips CSR and
Wolfson are performing well with
Wolfson's recent big gains still staying put. The oils has a bad start to the
day but are recovering fast!
AGA too holds on well to
good gains since results. All depends now on whether it can break the 400 or
not. if it can't I'll be tempted to take profits. If it does though that would
look very bullish indeed.
Dignity reported some
amazing results - but I'm not keen on the £1 a share cash back to shareholders -
never do see the point of these - can't they just spend the money on improving
the business? I'm tempted to sell but haven't so far.
I have bought a couple of high-risk shares for purely entertainment
reasons only for my SIPP in the last 24 hours which those of you on my e-mail
list will read about today. Do remember these are for fun to small stakes for me
and are not to be considered serious investments!Monday 20th March
I ended up with profits of £455 from Cheltenham which was very pleasing.
Spreadbetting on sport can bring good gains if you're careful - my next sports
spreadbet is likely to be at the Grand National meeting.
Onto the mailbox: Kate
writes: Come on now you don't really believe all that Apprentice stuff do you?
It's a TV programme. So we retain the most awful people to keep the viewers
viewing don't we?
It's bit like Enders, the dregs of society keep the viewers viewing. Now
contradict me, come on go for it!
Contradict you Kate? Why should I? I'm afraid I agree so if you're looking
for a row, I'm afraid you will have to find someone else to pick a fight with!
Rachel writes: I just
wanted to drop you a line - since discovering your web site at the beginning of
the year & applying some of your strategies I am on my way to making my first
£1000 in trading.
I am amazed, maybe it's beginners luck, I don't want to get
over-confident. Just wanted to thank you for writing your diary & the book, also
for running your seminar I attended on 10th March, all have helped tremendously
me with my confidence & made me feel I can do it.
Thanks Rachel - the thing I really like about your mail and why I think
you could make a god investor is the 'I don't want to get over-confident...'
Often investors have a few good wins think they are invincible and end up
trading with too much money and end up losing. Stay cautious, calm and
collected!!
In the meantime I just had to top up on more
Carphone Warehouse (CPW) shares
this morning given what I think is a good breakthrough 300p will open up a big
move upwards quickly.
And as you know I never mind topping up on winners and despite the fact
most investors would probably just take profits on shares they bought at 214....
I'm buying more for what I think will be a rise to 400p.
I wanted to get more before April 11th when they launch their broadband
service - this will see the shares under the spotlight and they should move a
lot higher.
Anyway I bought £30 a point
on the spreads at 297p and in the
market itself I bought 2,100
shares at 300.44p.Target
400, stop
275.
The company is brilliantly run and I can't see anything to stop the rise
except the start of a new bear market. The new broadband service will be the
icing on an excellent cake.
I took losses on Havelock Europa,
selling at 156 for a loss of
£498. My reason was though the
stock is undervalued for this moment in time there is no interest from anyone in
it so for the short term it looks stuck in a rut. I'll be back when volumes
return. Elsewhere the portfolio is rocketing with good gains right across the
board.
The chips are big winners today with
CSR and
Wolfson steaming higher. As you
can imagine the 'rolling day bet' has been extended for another day.
Burren is going higher
after a couple of poor weeks. This one is set for 1300 - just a question of
waiting. AGA continues to rise
after the excellent results last week and there should be a bit more to come.
The market makers look desperately short of stock in
White Young Green and if next
week's results are as good as I think they will be, the shares could rocket
then. Good gains today for Paragon,
Dignity, Hunting,
Barclays and
Atkins too.
The only one seeming to struggle is
Gyrus - I'm presuming a bit of
profit-taking after excellent results so staying put! A bit of profits being
taken in Charter as well but confident this one will continue to boom when the
sellers are finished.Friday 17th March
Dear Tony,
Please find enclosed a cheque for £10 made payable to 'New Labour Party'.
Can I emphasise this is a LOAN and NOT a donation - wink, wink eh!
Well done on all your fantastic work recently. Great to hear you got God's
support on the Iraq war. Well done on backing all your ministers - quite right,
you should always support your team members.
Congrats on all the new speed cameras, shootouts on the tube, Tesco's
metros, smoking laws, ID cards and all the lovely other things that you do for
us. It makes me feel warm that the government is looking after us all so well.
And what a great idea! Send inspectors round to tax rich bastards who have
got great views of the river - brilliant! I wondered what you thought about a
tax on breathing? After all no-one could possibly be exempt (unless they died of
course but that's ok there's always inheritance tax!)
Above all carry on not taking any blame at all for anything. As a leader
you are always right! Oh, and well done on getting the wife out there giving
speeches - good for her to have a bit of pin money eh!
Finally well done on keeping that horrible Gordon Brown from grabbing your
job. Hold onto your nice ministerial car as long as possible. Can you ask him to
stop charging taxes every time I buy a share - you never know!
Yours ever,
SIR (hopefully soon!) Robbie Burns
ps. the loan has an interest rate of 5% ( 24%APR.) There is an arrangement
fee of £1,000 and stamp duty is at 5%. And don't forget the VAT.
So the market's gone over 6,000 - with everyone celebrating the weekend
crappy press will probably quote experts saying the good times are here again
and everyone should be buying shares. Cue time to take profits and go short?
You didn't realise I was quite such a hot horse tipster eh! The buying of
the sps's at Cheltenham yesterday resulted in another big win, this time the
profit was £236.60p! Add that to the £460 I made the day before and it's looking
good!
Dare I run my luck one more day and hope for another 50-1 winner? Oh what
the hell! I've gone in again and bought the sps for a brave tenner at 78. Come
on you outsiders!
At any rate even if this bet goes tits up I'll end up with some kind of
profit from the four days! Follow me if you want.. (don't moan at me if you lose
though).
Over the past few days a significant level of supply has built up between
985p and 1020p Since today it has broke down thru the support at 985p (rising
window) the odds (ie technical odds) suggest a minor rally from 950p to 985p and
then a continued decline to revisiting 900p.
This eventuality has greater odds in the short term than overcoming the
supply base above, and breaking above 1020p. where I would be happy to open
long. Of course anything is possible but we play the odds.
I couldn't resist it - I had to buy some more
Charter (CHTR) yesterday
afternoon and bought a further £20
a point on the spreads at 734.
Target 825, stop
690.
I've been through the reasons recently why I like it so much and I believe
even after yesterday's massive rise it is still undervalued.
Of course an excellent day on the markets with many good risers Where to
start - the profits are simply flying in today - by the look of my accounts I'm
up more than £10,000 today.
AGA reported today and what
a great statement -as I said before management really want to grow this company.
Panmure Gordon has slapped an initial 435p target on the shares (another seminar
shortlisted pick!) and I won't argue with that.
A significant rise by Costain
today after the excellent results... getting through 55p looks a major victory
and 62p looks almost a certainty.
Northern Recruitment has
started a new run up and is on the move again -
Marchpole is trying hard to break
22 to open up 25.
Sparkling performances from the oils
Burren and
Tullow today- no more needs to be
said - two fantastic long-term holds.
Victrex has been quietly building
up a head of steam and nice profits on this one now.
My long-term hold of VP was
helped today by an Investors Chronicle tip - almost tempted to take profits into
the strength generated by the tip!!
Yesterday's top up in White Young
Green is going well - a break through 400p now would make it look very
good indeed - cracking results on the way shortly I reckon! The chips are also
motoring especially CSR mentioned
earlier. It's the same with plenty of others -
Paragon,
Hunting,
Gyrus,
Fenner.. in fact there's nothing
that ISN'T going well.
Thursday 16th March
Thanks to my discussion forum, I found out the bloody useless Alexa was
fired but as the man said - all three were useless... can you believe those
three management cobblers speak contestants are supposedly the best of our up
and coming entrepreneurs? God help us!
One of them said something like: 'We've done all the divergence... now we have
to attend to the convergence...'
Yes, he's been on one of those crappy management courses. In my time
working for BskyB I came across a number of people there who talked crap learned
from courses. Basically these people talk crap but end up doing and achieving
little - as Alan is well aware.
Alexa has a degree in economics from Cambridge.. and yet couldn't work out
if you spent £2,000 to make 500 pizzas you'd have to sell them all for £4 just
to break even.
And what was Syed (who talks crap constantly) doing buying 100 chickens?
If he ordered stuff for my cafe like that he's have been fired swiftly!
Notice the editors kept mad Jo out of it this week - nothing to do with
the fact they are desperate to make sure she is in the last 4 for entertainment
purposes?
Well, that was a fantastic call by the shares Mag chartist re Wolfson.
Remember that two weeks ago? Sell at 375? The price is now 424! This is where
'charting' can fall down. Fundamentally there was no reason for it to be under
400 in the first place. Doh!
My spreadbet on the Cheltenham races paid off in spectacular style -
unlike trading you are more than welcome to follow my bets on sport and Big
Brother so I hope one or two of you also bought the sps.
My bet paid out a lovely win of £460. All I needed were a couple of
outsiders to come in and they duly obliged and even better I didn't even have to
name them!!
So today, I'm doing the same bet again - however the craft bookies have
raised the spread as they got done on this yesterday.
So I'm looking for a couple of outsiders to get home. The beauty of
spreadbetting is I don't actually have to pick any horses myself, just hope the
favourites get beaten!
Steve - congrats and hope the day goes well. Don't copy me today as I'll
probably lose!
Mark writes: Bloody hell,
what a great day you had yesterday at Cheltenham, the 2 last races coming in at
33-1, you jammy git, I'm only jealous as I was on the 3-1 fav in the 5.20.
Anyway quick query about Costain, we had a quick chat about it at your
seminar and I know you covered it yesterday in your diary, it does look
fantastic from the results but is there something in the accounts that I'm
missing, how come it's rated so lowly.
With a current P/E of only 8, a forward order book for 2006 that is equal
to 2005 turnover, a record forward order book covering the next 5 years, and yet
they only ticked up 3p yesterday.
I would've topped up in some more myself had I any spare cash. I'm just
glad I didn't sell up when it dropped down the 40p.
Hi Mark glad to hear from you and great you enjoyed the seminar! I'm
afraid Costain is probably considered a touch dull and agree it is worth a lot
more.
Most investors would take profits. However as I feel the shares remain
undervalued I've bought more! This topping up works very well for me.
Why do I like WHY? Because it's one of my boring companies that hardly any
small investors get interested in cos it's a 'boring' one. The institutions like
it though and so do I.
I've been waiting to get in in the run up to results on March 28th. The
reason I grabbed the shares this morning was because fresh volume was coming in
and I think the results are going to be outstanding.
It's a building and environment consultant. There - told you it was boring
- sorry! No shiny new exciting tech product or whizzy chips. But its valuation
is far too low. I'm confident!
I did my first ever day trader bet today! Yes, I bought a share with the
intention of closing out in just the day. For some reason
CSR dipped a lot and I thought
they would recover strongly today.
Another fabulous day today with lots of my favourites going very well
indeed! Marchpole (I'm holding a
massive pile of these now) - is moving ahead again.
Here's how I see events unfolding. Those who bought at 16 took profits at
22 to take the shares back to 20 where nervous holders sold. The rise from 20 is
attracting new buyers who will want to take profits at 25.
The star of today though is
Charter! A massive rise of more than 40 points on results. These results
are brilliant and no way am I taking profits - the shares are worth 800 plus.
AGA has seen some massive
buying ahead of results tomorrow. Here's hoping for good results to push up to
nearer 400. We shall see..
Tullow goes from strength
to strength. Costain is pausing
for breath but once profit takers are out of the way it should start to move up
- would be surprised if institutions weren't looking at the shares now the
dividend is to be restored.
Hunting is heading for more
highs - another 50p in this share I reckon.
MTL Instruments looks like it's
going to try and break 500p again shortly. And I just noticed
Paragon - I thought it was about
680 and greatly pleased to see 729! When did that happen?!
Wendesday 15th March
Every minute or so someone runs by.. I mean.. good for them, I guess it's
a great start to the day before they head off for the office.
I guess they are life's 'do-ers'. I do run every other day but prefer the
treadmill at the gym where I can listen to music or watch TV. I find running
outside pretty boring!
The seagulls are all out this morning, chatting away - bet they have
office politics too? I can see planes taking off from Heathrow - that means it's
an easterly wind today - when it's westerly I can see them landing. What I
really like is the light. After living in a darkish house it's wonderful.
Great welcome from Christopher when he saw me this morning. Arms
outstretched shouting 'dada!' How lovely. He spent the rest of the morning
chasing poor 120-year-old Domino the cat all over the place. She's very good
with him and never raises a paw in anger.
Nearly copped a huge payout with my Cheltenham spreadbet yesterday... a
66/1 shot led one of the races and just got pipped on the line! Oh well, in the
end I ended up losing £30. Could have been a win of more than £500! That's the
way racing goes though.
I'm going to buy the sps again today given that one or two big odds
winners can really bring home the bacon. So I bought for a tenner at 69.
However of course because many got bored stupid waiting there is
inevitable profit taking going on today. And it's only because of this the
shares haven't been shooting higher.
My analysis makes the shares worth a minimum 65p. The new head cheese has
gone in and looks to be getting stuck in to finish the job started by Stuart
Doughty.
So, even if I have to be bored for a bit longer they are still a buy - and
now with this news a great sleep at night buy with minimal downside even if the
bear market starts. So I bought more.... another
12,000 shares at
52.48p. Target
65p, stop
46p.
I also bought Vislink today
(VLK). I've made money on this
before a few times. It was on the shortlist at the seminar and came second to
Hill and Smith in the voting.
I've been waiting for a dip to get back in and I think this morning's
price is the best I'm going to get on this amazingly undervalued company. I
bought 10,000 shares at
54p. Target
70p. stop
45p.
The company has been turned around recently and orders are coming in like
crazy now and it's just announced it's won some significant orders. And it looks
significantly undervalued to me.
We went into this one in depth at the seminar and I don't have the time to
do it here but their website is pretty good and explains their business rather
well.
In order to raise funds for my buys I sold my recently acquired
Thus shares at
152.57 - after the consolidation
it's a small profit but let's call it breakeven!
The consolidation doesn' t seem to have done much except tighten the
spread. I do think there will be a bid this year but it could be slow in coming.
So I might well get back in especially if any significant volume starts to come
in.
Elsewhere another decent day as the bull market goes on. Chips look good
today - Wolfson especially is on
the up and the break up to 420 looks bullish again.
Tullow is really performing
well now.. roll on the bid at 400p (just guessing!) I await the
AGA results on Friday with
interest and some hope!
It's gone quiet at Marchpole
but that's no bad thing - it would be good to see consolidation here at 20p
which should prove the base for the shares and allow the inevitable move up to
the 30p area. Just patience required!
Charter has a target price
of 825p put on it by a broker who reckons it is undervalued compared to its
peers and I agree.
Burren has flown back over
1000p today - its ups and downs don't bother me much as I believe one way or
another it is going to 1300+. A lot of other stuff going very nicely too!Tuesday 14th March
Do you know how much it costs to advertise on a 30 second slot on the
TV... How much for Sky News (anytime)? Coronation Street? Big Brother Final?
Have a guess! Answers tomorrow!
Remember I told you my sister had discovered you could pretty much buy
awards from New Labour if you had clout/money?
Well, it's all over the papers as you know. Looks like it would cost me
£1.5million loan to Labour to become Lord Burns of Fulham.
Not worth it really? But for goodness sake let's vote all these sleaze
merchants out. Another lot probably won't be much better but it'll just feel
good won't it? And let's please get rid of the repugnant Ken Livingstone this
time....!
It's Cheltenham time.. always fun to have a spreadbet or two on the racing
- much easier to make a profit than just betting on one or two horses.
With some of the fancied runners out I reckon there might be one or two
upsets so I bought the sp's with sporting index for £10 an sp at 69.
That means if all the winning sps add up to more than 69 I make £10 a
point.. if they add up to less than 69 I lose a tenner a point!
So I'm looking for a couple of outsiders to get home. The beauty of
spreadbetting is I don't actually have to pick any horses myself, just hope the
favourites get beaten!
Suzanne...Tough luck, that was a big rise for the shares! Re directors
dealings, not really except I take note when it's one of the shares I'm
holding!!
Mike writes: Why is it that
sometimes the trade does not go through on screen. This has happened to me a few
times and sometimes the trade is instant?
Hi Mike. Market makers can delay trades if they are over market size. Also
it is possible your trade went through one of two rivals to the LSE - Plus
markets or Virt-X.
Although Aga actually only picked up two votes at the seminar I rather
like the look of it. I'm kind of anticipating some good results which
should be out on Friday and hoping for a very nice bounce on Friday with some
follow up rises next week. So I'm not quite sure whether it's a short-term or
medium-term buy just yet. Depends on results.
I'm sure you all know Agas - posh cookers - but they also supply
commercial cookers as well - the company is doing extremely well - turnover
profits and dividends all rising nicely.
It looks to me like management has decided it wants to grow the company
with acquisitions which should soon have a knock on effect on the share price.
They've recently bought up a German oven maker Eloma which looks a good fit.
Although my initial target is 385, there's a good chance of a lift over
400 if results are better than expectations. The company said profits will at
least be in line so there's no chance of anything nasty in there.
So it's an other one of my nice sleep at night goodies that should provide
10-20% uplift quite quickly! In any event I'll make a decision on Friday after
results are out whether to hold short or longer term....
Some good gains for a lot of the portfolio today. Recent -and seminar -
buy Hill and Smith looks like
it's now in the middle of a deserved re-rating.
My huge profits winner Marchpole
is in the process of testing 20p as a base and I'd be surprised if the shares
went under 20p again. It'll probably test it a couple of times and should then
start a new rise to 25p then 30p where it is at least fairly valued.
Fenner is rising though 200p
again and this time I think it could easily sail through the sticky 210p area
for 230.Monday 13th March
And the winner was Hill & Smith (HILS)
and on the day itself I bought 1,500
shares at 257.95 and this morning
I bought some more - 2,500 shares
at 257.6p. Target
345 stop
225.
I've played around with Hill and Smith a lot and It's quite volatile but
as we all agreed at the seminar the shares after the stunning results last week
are worth at least 300p and possibly 350p.
It makes bollards and other road equipment and their services are in
demand. They are also expanding into other areas by buying up other companies.
The management looks sounds and this company is going places. Some
institutional interest could see the shares rocket. An extremely nice and sleep
at night medium term investment that will pay dividends.
I took the loss on my short in
Provident on Thursday afternoon. I was hoping for a pullback but it was
never going to happen.
Marchpole is unsurprisingly
down a little and I suspect profit taking (fair enough!) with a lot of investors
hoping for a fall down to the 20p area. If it does, expect the buying to take
off again! I reckon any move to 20p will see immediate buying (including more
from me).
Man Group sold shares last week - they had around 9 million and reduced to
around 6.5million one imagines the fund manager was keen to take a few off the
table especially as we are near tax year end.
The thing is none of this matters much to me - fundamentally the shares
are worth at least 30p and it's only a matter of time before they get there.
Patience is simply required
Elsewhere it's actually pretty quiet around the place with nothing much to
get excited.. or sad about. My long-termers
CSR,
Burren and
Wolfson are all just sitting
there.
Tullow Oil has been
creeping up very nicely and I just know one morning I will wake up to see the
bid going through at 400p!!
My undiscovered little gem VP
where I have now doubled and a half my money just keeps on going up!
Devro was tipped by the Mail on
Sunday though it's not made much difference to the price.
If any of you are Thus
shareholders and thought it was your lucky day and the shares had risen 880% I'm
afraid it was just a share consolidation.Thursday 9th March
David writes: I would just
like to comment on one of your readers emails of yesterday. Graham, said that he
uses TA for his trading.
I have only been trading with real money for the past 3 months using only
TA. One of the many things I have learnt is never to trade against the long term
trend. Graham was correct to draw a support line along the up trend, but chose
to bet against this.
Sorry to be boring but guess what? Yes, right. I bought MORE
Marchpole!!
(MPH)! I picked up another
25,000 shares just before the
close yesterday at 20p to take
advantage of the dip. Same target and stop loss as the previous buy.
Why am I buying so many Marchpole and why at higher prices? Because, quite
simply it is very unusual to find a share that is definitely undervalued. As I
said before the company says it's going to make profits of nearly £5m. Yet the
market cap is STILL only 25m DESPITE the recent rises! The cap should be at
least 40m!
All I have to do is carry on sitting here and watch those lovely gains
come in and just ride out any market maker dips. Big rewards are already in and
more on the way - you have to take advantage of these gifts from the Gods.
A really good day today with most shares coming right back and recovering
yesterday's losses. Going well and bouncing back are my oil and chip faves
Burren,
Dragon,
Wolfson and
CSR.
Tullow looks especially good - a
bid on the way this year surely!
VP just carries on going up
as ever slowly but surely. MTL,
Marchpole (of course)
Charter and
Mouchel doing the business.
Only disappointments today are
Hunting and Gyrus, both
down for some reason. No matter, they are great companies and will come back.Wendesday 8th March
The shares are up again today after directors bought... just a matter of
holding tight for 25-30p on this one! Some profit-taking today, not surprised
and I bet they will get back in for the next ride up! In fact being up at all on
a day like this is a good sign.
I decided to take very nice profits in
Highway Insurance today, selling
for 78.12p for a profit of
£1,962 on my 58.5p position and
£1,434 on my 59p position. So
total profits taken of £3,396 for
the site which ain't bad!
My reason for selling on results day was although headline figures were
excellent, there were just too many cautious bits and pieces in the statement
including the dreaded word 'challenging'. I didn't see the shares going a lot
further for a while. I just missed getting 81p - never mind!
It'll probably bounce back but given the cautious nature of the statement
it seems reasonable to take big profits especially as I'm taking them 3p over my
initial target.
I am officially the crappiest shorter in the world! The only short I had
open managed a huge rise today,
Provident Financial.
I tried to get out at 650 early on but the shares rose too fast for me to
get out and Cantor rejected my early order!. I really didn't think the company
would say anything positive today which shows how wrong I was.
So I am sitting here with the shares coming back down to 650. I will
certainly sell if they start to bounce again. The main damage was done by broker
upgrades, damn them! They are over my stop loss so the finger is hovering over
the take loss button.
Considering it's a poor day many of my lot are holding up OK with no big
disasters to report. Hunting and
Charter hardest hit though both
are great companies so I'll stay holding.
As usual it's a question of staying calm and objective. If the shares were
good value today they will be good value tomorrow.
The chips are as volatile as ever as are the oils. However I feel no fear
about holding the chips or the oils as their value will continue to rise
long-term.
Hey, I even have four going up in
Costain, Gyrus,
Mouchel and good old
VP! Costain is looking
interesting again if it can get above 50p and give some of us extremely patient
shareholders a profit at bloody last!
Anyway I feel it's a day to sit tight and not panic! Remember how fast
sentiment changes at the moment! Tomorrow could be a different day when everyone
starts chasing up shares again. But on balance given I feel I have a strong set
of companies I shall stay put.Tuesday 7th March
Did we really vote this government in? Is there one of them that is free
of the taint of corruption. And all that spin. As for Blair's 'God'
comment, how worrying is that? Has he gone bananas?
She's managed to persuade Christian Slater to come back for another run of
the brilliant 'One Flow Over the Cuckoo's Nest'
In fact we nearly got a shock. 'I nearly brought Christian with me to see
you, ' she said. 'But the friend he's got with him finds babies difficult to
deal with....'
Imagine the shock on our faces if we'd opened the door to her.. and
Slater! Last time we saw him was when she invited us to the first night party of
Cuckoos Nest and he led the Karoake. He's a good singer. And with that bit of
name dropping.. (oh why not?) let's move to the seminar!
I'm working on finding some shares for the list of brilliant value shares
that could rise 20% or more this year for the seminar on Friday.
The reason? His surname is Willcock and it didn't like the cock bit! Very
funny at the time, but also completely ridiculous. The world has gone mad.
Oh dear, now the word bollocks has been printed again my poor e-mail
subscriber will not get his e-mail due to more 'profanity'. !
Rodger writes: Content'
checking of emails is just another one of those things that gets done by well
meaning ISPs, email providers, virus checking firms etc etc. Another
infringement of liberty to express oneself.
How long before the people take to the streets to protest!! Oh, I forgot
this is the UK, we don't do that sort of thing do we?
I picked up another 50,000
shares in MPH in two lots at an average
16p.Target 30p, stop
14p. Target for the shares I
bought at 12.9p is now raised to 25p.
This share is a stonking buy even at higher levels and is worth buying up
to 25p I reckon. How often does a share come along where they say a £5m profits
is likely and it has got a tiny market cap? And it's fully listed? And liquid?
And the company is going to buy back shares? And has completed an excellent
acquisition?
Today's rise is just the start - the shares are worth 25-30p and everyone
including the market makers know it. Which is why I loaded up with more asap
though I missed the best prices of the day at around 14.5p. Well done to whoever
got that - my broker was still asleep sadly. I reckon I could double my money on
both buys grabbing nearly £15,000 profit.
So a great start to the day and much more profit set to come from
Marchpole! One sell to report - Fletcher
King sold at 55p for a
profit of £200.
Elsewhere loads of drilling reports today. I'm not great at understanding
them and let the market guide me. Looks like
Tullow's is great,
Burren's OK and
Dragon not sure.
Chips are down after Texas missed its forecasts. Don't think it'll have
much more than a temporary effect on CSR
and Wolfson.
Atkins looks good today -
if it can clear 800p then 830 opens up.
Carphone Warehouse continues to look a superb long-term hold.
Profit-taking in MTL Instruments
should dry up soon and I'd expect a good bounce off 450-460. Bit disappointed to
see Havelock down today. But
fundamentally undervalued - it should bounce and go higherMonday 6th March
If one of my favourites start going down I can relax, turn on the massage
function and believe me, quite soon I couldn't care less. Mind you, probably not
a good thing long-term.
Remember last year I slagged off the boat race.. only two teams, what a
load of crap etc? I've done a u-turn. I think the boat race is brilliant!
Nothing to do with the fact the boats will race right by the new apartment and
that I'm thinking of having a boat race party? Terrible how some people can be
such hypocrites!
I haven't got a door for my office yet and here comes Christopher....
no... not the mouse and the keyboard.. hands off... xlg'wmv'/wfmw;tiw, flf''w,mw.,s.
That was Christopher's contribution today. Thanks!
The mother in law is still here so that means we managed to go out for the
evening again and went to the really good Asian Fusion restaurant eight over
eight.
The Black Cod is delicious - yes, it's £21 for a bit of cod with a tiny
bit of sauce but it is delicious. Yes, know what you northerners are thinking:
'You southern jessie with your £21 bit of fish with not even chips to go with
it!'
Well, the Mrs had steak (with an Asian sauce of course) and some noodles
and then we pigged out on some lovely puddings. £95 for two with two cocktails.
I'm working on finding some shares for the list of brilliant value shares
that could rise 20% or more this year for the seminar on Friday.
Think I've found some goodies. The ones that made it to the shortlist for
the last seminar all rose nicely! Awaiting delivery of both wafer and chunky kit
kats after the split vote!
Hi Steve - Goodness me don't think you should close positions because the
market is volatile for a while. Make sure your stops are well enough away from
your positions or if worried why not simply take out your stops for the morning
then reintroduce them?
Seems a bit of an overeaction to close everything. Looks to me like the
volatility isn't as bad as it was a while back and most of the stocks just go
into auction for a bit.
Barbara writes: Very
entertaining and informative commentary - thank you.
So, let me see if I have learnt anything - am I right in thinking that I
shouldn't have bought Petra Diamonds just because I had recently returned from a
holiday to Petra and I love diamonds?
Hi Barbara! Dead right, not the right reason for buying Petra. However
your Body Shop buy was fair enough - you saw the stores were full then you
factored in Japan!
Alex says: Mobile phone
retailer Carphone Warehouse (LSE: CPW.L - news) was upgraded to 'add' from
'hold' at WestLB following a meeting yesterday.
Thanks Alex. I think Charles Dunstone the head man at Carphone is a great
manager and I expect the shares to carry on north.
Plenty of star performers today. The top award should probably go to
Wolfson for climbing back
strongly over the 400p mark - patient holders look set to get their rewards and
a 600p year end target is not out of the question.
Fenner is making a big move
right now - back over 200 gives a tasty 230 target.
Gyrus and
VP are both going great guns
today too.
Highway Insurance is doing
its usual quiet move up, it'd had a lot of those which has seen the price rise
from my 58p buying price to 83p!
Dragon Oil is breaking out
into new territory - already a nice doubler for me, wish I'd bought more!
Hunting as I said before looks
well undervalued still and I expect take off soon, they are going well today.
The only downside is my two risky smaller plays are a touch lower today.
Marchpole continues to walk on a
tightrope and a forthcoming statement is likely to push the shares up to 17p or
see them fall to 9p. Well, it's why I bought a small amount! Could still pay
off.
Northern Recruitment is
struggling to get over 150 with a few profit takers. I've been considering
taking profits but a move over 150 would see 170 where it would be rightly
valued for now. I'll stick in there.
Recent spreadbuys Barclays
and De La Rue still doing the
business for me as my spreadbet account simply rockets with added profits!
Also recent buy Charter is
storming higher with huge gains. Mouchel
Parkman is solidly higher as are
Paragon and Tullow.
Burren and
CSR seem to be left out of the
fun but they are holding recent massive gains so that's OK.Friday 3rd March
Christopher continues to delight me and I love him to bits. Last night he
toddled over to the other side of the room to bring me my woolly hat (essential
when you're bald) then toddled back to bring me one glove and then another..
Ahhh! He is go giving, just like his father!
Stuart we have all come across managers like that!
Phil writes: Love your site
(been following, and have communicated with you), since your days on Sky).
Just one question for you - how do you determine when it's time to get out
of a profitable share. I know you say don't fall in love with a share, but when
it's been kind (at least on paper), I find it difficult to judge when to cut the
ties.
I have some other stocks I fancy getting into. With Burren now accounting
for some 30% of my holding, that's about the only one I would perhaps reduce.
Hi Phil - knowing when to sell is one of the most difficult things to
decide - my view is when I know I have a good share and it's reached my target I
try and re-evaluate it and decide whether I would still buy it now - if I would
I carry on holding it.
In the bullmarket we are still in I am currently reluctant to sell good
winners. Another idea is to sell half on a good profit and run the rest.
This from Frank: Don't
really subscribe to the notion of the markets behaviour as acting irrationally,
- consider it to be subjective thinking. The market simply moves in alignment
with / and as a direct result of, the collective actions of buyer and seller.
Which brings to mind a lovely quote (no idea who made it) : 'The markets
can act irrationally far longer than the investor can remain solvent.'
Thanks Frank, good one!
Burren's also had a good
week now well over then 1000 mark again. Every chance both shares could be up in
the 1200-1300 area by summer. Recent top up in
Hunting is going well and this
week's buy Charter is storming
up.
Marchpole is at the mercy
of the market-makers. Difficult to work out whether it's a tree-shake or not
today but judging the real trading marker maker Winterfloods started it, it
probably is! Anyhow a likely statement due soon will decide whether this ends up
being a good or bad gamble.
Havelock Europa is showing
signs of movement after a quiet spell. Worth 200p surely!
Barclays and
De la Rue are holding up well
given the recent big rises. As is Atkins
which could go really well if it can break the stick 800 mark.
Devro looks like it's set
for a nice run up, likely to move fast if poking above 140, way undervalued,
value must out here at some point.
Wolfson looks set for
another run if it can close a few times above 400.
Northern Recruitment will
probably take time to conquer 150, and if it does 170 beckons at which point so
does some profit taking! Carphone
Warehouse is gradually climbing to some all time highs.Thursday 2nd March
What an Apprentice last night, it really is a great show. In a way though
it's kind of a bit cynical of the producers to deliberately pick oddballs to try
and make it more exciting but then again it works because we all talk about
her.. whatever her name is! The one with the frizzy hair who is desperately
needy and cries all the time.
The calendar task was brilliant. They both produced completely crap ones
and the only reason either of them 'sold' was because it was a TV show and the
cameras were there.
As for the excruciating 'Pitches'. My God. Don't any of them realise you
just talk to people like they are normal human beings?
And they hadn't even decided price points. If I ran my cafe with that lot
as managers I'd be losing pots! You have to get price points right. Can you
imagine a customer walking in and asking for much a latte was and I said... 'er
dunno, what do you want to pay?'
Price points are fascinating on a psychological point of view. For
example, paninis at the cafe are either £3.75 or £4.25. I would never set a
price like £4.05 - it wouldn't sell! So if you're raising a price through a
whole number you can just go for it! Anyway, look forward to the show
again next week, there's nothing else but crap to watch.
Talking of crap, Prime Ministers Question Time fascinates me. These are
our country's 'leaders'. How depressing. It's all method acting and none of them
give a crap except they're all making lots of money and have nice free cars.
On this topic Andy writes:
Just a quick line to say I couldn't agree with you more about this abysmal
government. I seem to remember back in 1997 when they won the election, that
they promised to be business friendly. 9 years on, we have masses of red tape
and huge tax increases and that's before even mentioning Gordon Brown's
disastrous attack on pension funds.
Well, exactly Andy. This country is sinking into the mire with nannying
and red tape. Obsession with motorists, speed traps and parking; very high
taxes, abysmal standards and waste of money in local government, falling
standards everywhere and a complacent and arrogant government.
But I 'm going to ask u, please, to explain todays comment -' Resist any
urge to daytrade. And yes, do let us all know how you get on!'
Are u referring to shares only? If so, I agree, but feel u should have
pointed that out. If not, I'm going to have to have a pop at you because this
can't go on!
Don't worry Richard, no need to pop! Of course was talking shares not
indices! The thing is he was a young student and I want to set him on the right
road to making money!
I should say Richard is a successful day trader and wants to point out
there ARE those who make a living from say trading and there ARE those like him
who can do it from chart reading.
So let me qualify what I said yesterday: although there are rubbish
chartists out there who talk crap and rubbish daytraders who lose money those
with hard work and experience can make it pay.
I would make a rubbish daytrader and a rubbish chart reader - I am no good
at either and I stick to what I know: medium-term investing!
If you do want to become a daytrader you simply need to get the experience
necessary then put in the work and application needed.
As Richard adds in his mail: 'Robbie what you could have said was: Do not
be tempted to daytrade, this is successful only amongst professional traders of
experience and\or training.
So to Richard: congrats on your continued success - long may you read the
music of the charts and daytrade to great success!
First off on the less risky scale is
Charter (CHTR). I bought via a
spreadbet for £20 a point at
653 during a mid afternoon dip.
Target 740, stop
625.
Yes, it's one of my 'Boring' engineering stocks, that's right one of those
companies that makes extremely dull equipment. But it's these boring type stocks
that have made me a lot of money!
It's gone up a lot but not nearly enough. H1 profits showed an amazing
leap and forward guidance is extremely bullish. The chart looks top notch too.
Of course it's likely to be a bit volatile and given its rise there will
be some profit-takers around but once they're gone it should rocket.
Fundamentally it should be around 800p. We'll see!
Second buy is about as far risky as I will ever get as it's pretty much in
penny share territory however it's one with the risk/reward ratio I think
weighted enough towards rewards to take the chance.
The share is Marchpole (MPH).
I bought 50,000 shares yesterday
afternoon at 12.94p. Target
17p, stop
11p. Also got a few for the Sipp.
Been waiting for this one to bottom and level 2 showing 2 market makers
raising to 12.75 and only one on 13 prompted me to consider this a bottom. The
price has already gone up a little since I bought.
The company produces high end clothing to posh brands (i.e clothes you and
I would never wear!) and has had a terrible few months with the stock price
sinking rapidly.
However with a market cap now of only £16m and bearing in mind it still
makes profits, the 12-14p area looks a good entry point.
News is due out soon about the probable purchase of another company which,
if the statement is clears the air, could see the shares rocket.
Of course there is risk here: any bad news and we could see 9p. So I'm
only in for a smallish amount - but my buy could pay off. The price is already
in the mid 13s now.
I had a quick look at the Marchpole bulletin board and what a fantastic
board it is! Full of absolutely superb, well informed and interesting posters.
They deserve a plug: Momentos,
lex1000,
argy2,
Brindy,
Tufty...
Instead of some of the idiots on some other boards who slag each other off
and produce nothing worth reading, these posters do and paste proper research
from actually ringing the company, discussing likely statements, risk-rewards,
market-maker shenanigans etc.
So I feel the Marchpole BB 'Marchpole growing...' is a credit to all
concerned and shows how bulletin boards should be used to everyone's benefit.
Discussed is the possible downside of the share as well as the upside, quite
unusual for bulletin boards! Well done to all concerned.
Third trade made today after results is a top up in
Hunting (HTG). I'm already in at
267 but happy to top up with a £30
spreadbet long at 365. Target
420, stop
330.
I buy at higher levels with confidence. Amazing results today! A huge leap
in full year profits means the shares are trading at only just over ten times
profits. Way too cheap. Fair value is 420.
One sell to report: I sold my
6,500 in Centaur at
102.76 yesterday for a small
profit of £111. Bit disappointed
with this one - I sold to raise a bit of cash. While there is not much downside
for the moment the upside isn't there either!
Congratulations to Shares Magazine's chartist today for his 'sell' advice
on CSR and Wolfson - Wolfson has already reached his stop loss!!
Here's a classic 'chartist' bollocks statement on Wolfson... ' Expect the
shadower bull trendline to support ahead of the 200 day average'.
I think the word 'bull' inside that statement sums it up quite nicely!!
Shares Magazine has been really going downhill recently. I don't know what is
going on there but I'm about to stop bothering with it unless it improves.
Northern Recruitment has
pretty much reached my first target of 150 but I'm now looking for 170 after my
top up. Market makers are trying to shake the tree but there are a lot of buyers
around and not surprised.
The oils are going well with
Burren, Tullow and
Dragon all racing ahead.
Hunting is really going for it
with a massive rise, glad I held my patience with it.
De La Rue continues to fly
higher and recent buy Devro is
holding up well and I would expect further rises to come.
Atkins has moved over 800 which
looks good and.....
Not much else to say about today except for: 'Yipppppeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!'Wednesday 1st March
He is crazy about the computer mouse, toddled over, grabbed it and
disappeared off with it. When I caught up with him the mouse had vanished. It
took me half an hour to find it - he'd managed to lob it out onto the terrace -
just as well it wasn't raining!
Get tickets! You will never find a funnier man. For me you can forget
Billy Connolly, Ben Elton and all those smug comedians that are always on the
telly. Jackie Mason is sheer genius. Get the best
Do you feel that on results day that EVEN if the results are great it is
sometimes a case of being 'better to travel than it is to arrive'?
It seems to me that the problem with this company is that it never
surprises as results are always good and they would have to be just
extraordinary for them to really shoot up.
Am thinking of adopting a policy of selling shares that are on the up the
day BEFORE results. watching the market reaction and then buying or not as
appropriate. What do you think of this as a strategy?
Well, it would probably work, share prices often fall on results day. The
only thing is if results are good the price then starts to recover and rises
again! So maybe you will have to think carefully about your strategy!!
Jag writes: When you place
a long/short, for example on Finspread you have the option for daily cash,
rolling, or quarterly. What should I be choosing if I wanted to keep rolling for
over 6 months etc..?
Jag depends on your time frame. If you are only intending to hold for a
few days go rolling. But if like me you are a medium term investor go quarterly.
I took out a spreadbet long (buy) for
£60 a point at
131 early this morning. Target
price 170, stop
115. I just can't see any
downside and massive upside!
The only reason it's not higher is that investors don't find 'castings'
companies very exciting! But I've made tons of money from unexciting companies
over the years and I expect to do the same with this one!
On top of great profits, the company is expanding rapidly and it is
tapping some great new markets. This is one I expect to confidently tuck away
for a while and pick up the rewards.
Another buy today and I couldn't quite resist a small top up in
Northern Recruitment (NRG) and
bought a further 3,500 shares at
140 to add to the shares already
bought at 120. Target 170, stop
120.
I've already gone into the reasons I think it is undervalued - great
results from similar companies in the sector together with the fact it's looking
strong despite going ex dividend today makes it worth a top up.
I've also found making money entails topping up on your winners even at
higher prices than you bought at. Something investors just can't bring
themselves to do but I can!! I've also picked up a dividend of £125.
The chips were down yesterday - they are up today!!
CSR is storming back as I write -
some idiot in The Times rated them a sell at 910. Ridiculous! Has he seen the
profits?!
Also joining the chip rises is
Wolfson, unfairly marked down yesterday with CSR. I feel confident CSR
will be back up to 1200 by the summer.
Barclays is only down cos it went ex dividend today.
Dragon Oil is putting in a
sparkling performance today and has been a big winner for me. Good old
Pantheon IT has done what it
always does, goes up 10p! Burren's
doing its best to get over that sticky 1000 area. It should manage it.
I've been forgetting to mention
Highway Insurance - bought this twice in the 58p area and it's now
pushing 80p. What a chart it just carries on going up slowly. Lovely!!
Tuesday 28th February
There's only four weeks left of the cafe business before the sale goes
through so coming up is four years worth of clutter to clear.
Still, it'll be worth it as I'm about to get a giant sum from the sale of
the business (now I wonder where that money is going to go?)
A woman who had the tomato and basil soup at the cafe told my manager: 'I
am a top chef and your tomato and basil soup is the best I have ever tasted...'
If only she knew we use Tesco's 'value' cans of tomato at 15p each. Probably
best keep quiet about that eh?
Ta Reid and good luck with your new CSR position, could come up trumps!
Ian writes: 'Please help me
understand the market reaction to CSR's results today. In my laymans
understanding of accounts the results on all counts were fantastically positive
and the forecast was for continued growth in 2006.
Hi Ian. You are forgetting one thing - markets are irrational ! Shares
overshoot down and up. I talk about CSR in my market report later but I agree.
Graham writes: 'Over the
years I have tried to use technical analysis to trade, and I obviously have not
been very good at it because I have not made any money.
The other day I was on the IG website playing about with charts and
whatever, when Working lunch came on TV and I heard that Centrica shares were
going down, although they had made record profits. I heard that shrinking assets
and the cost of foreign gas could be the cause of this. So I decided to think
about shorting them.
I looked at the chart, and of course I saw what I wanted to see, and
subsequently shorted them at £5.00 per point with a 20 point stop.
The following day I saw that all was not well with my trade, and asked
myself if I'd made a mistake, and did I really want to throw away £100?
I had another look at the chart, and drew a support line along the up
trend, and noticed that the price had only fallen back to this line, and that
therefore the fall in share price was probably only a correction. So I closed
out taking a small loss of £30. Notwithstanding, It may be worth watching this
share for a while.
Meanwhile, I wonder if you have any suggestions which may help improve my
trading. I realize that there will be losses. But I want to avoid stupid ones.
Graham thanks for an interesting mail - I'm not a technical analyst so
perhaps it would be better if I invited any TA fans out there to comment on your
mail. However the thing that stands out is when you said: 'I saw what I wanted
to see'.
That maybe is what you are doing wrong, you'd already decided what you
were going to do and used the chart to confirm that rather than letting the
chart tell you! Anyway, comments invited please!
I've decided to take profits on a long-term trade
Rotork today. Results were good
but all seems to be in the price now. I closed my long-running website spread
bet for £15 at
441 to close at
729 to take profits of a massive
£4,320.
I started the trade in October 2004 and this shows with patience you can
make a lot of money holding onto a winner for quite some time.
However my real profit is a really massive
£14,400 and I made that via a
complete mistake, you might remember I related this story after I bought Rotork.
While I meant to buy for £15 a point at the time I actually said £50! I
didn't realise the mistake for a couple of weeks but obviously it just kept
going up so it's all a stroke of luck!
So with £14,400 banked personally I feel rather good today! Sometimes you
just get a bit of luck and my putting on a way bigger trade than I meant to has
been my bit of luck for 2005.
The chips are down today! As I kind of predicted (and why I reduced my
holding recently) CSR has headed
down today after results which some found disappointing.
I'm not great at reading results but the way I look at fundamentals is
that the selling is overdone. Of course CSR is always going to be a hard share
to value but it's worth more than the current dip. One suspects it'll come back.
I can feel fairly relaxed about it due to my two entry positions left are
at 729 and 629! Profits for the second quarter look like they will be
strong.
Wolfson was hit by the CSR
results. I have a straightforward plan with Wolfson. 350 is my magic number and
I'd sell my 404p top up though my original buy at 310 is a long-term purchase
and will stay put.
Elsewhere there is plenty of good news.
Northern Recruitment continues
its meteoric rise and is only just after a few days nearly at my initial target,
which means I'm up more than 20%!
Pantheon is just climbing
10p every day and has done it again. Bought just a few days ago at 837 it's now
looking to climb over 900! Very nice!
VP is shooting up again -
my buys at 130 and 190 look pretty good with the shares pushing 310 and I don't
feel like taking profits yet!
Thus is trying very hard to
break that crucial 15.5p level. Shanks
is starting to look like an excellent trade though can it break 200p? Very
bullish sign if it can!
Two oils going different ways.
Dragon (doubled my money on this one) is up very nicely while
Burren is still struggling to
stay above 1000p.
Hikma has suddenly become
very volatile and unpredictable. I only have a relatively small position and
will just stick by my plan and if it hits the stop loss, it's out. The other
current disappointment is Victrex.
Paragon is still toying
with going over 700. I'll give it another couple of goes and if it doesn't it's
probably a signal to take profits.
Monday 27th February
Cat Domino is much relieved though as she is getting a bit of peace for a
change and not getting chased around the apartment!
Onto the mailbag: Kate
writes: 'Can you think of anything the government has done to help (small)
business during its term? Must confess I cannot think of a single thing at the
moment.'
Don't get me started Kate! This government is a disaster all round -
history will show what a mess they made of things.
As the owner of a small business for the last 4 years I can hardly believe the
red tape, taxes, local government stupid laws, and worst of all no help
whatsoever! I could go on but let's just agree: not a single thing!
Frank writes: I was
interested to see your short in Provident Financial, a weak stock in a strong
sector and broad market. Especially as it has just made a strong rally (nearly
100% retracement) from a reasonably large base.
Fundamentally I think PFG looks weak and due for a fallback. Another profits
warning could be around the corner.
Steve writes: I'm a recent
(and very impressed) addition to the 5,000 or so owners of your book! The book
was recommended by my brother-in-law, Richard, who will be attending your 24th
March seminar.
You write with great clarity, honesty and humour, and the book has helped
to eradicate many of our early trading mistakes, and motivated us to (hopefully)
achieving more success in the future!
Nothing like fan mail - thanks!
Barry writes: I have read
you book and think its the best ten quids worth I have spent in a long time.
Unfortunately I had already made many of the mistakes you speak of.
Just like to say De La Rue was an inspired choice just before the
Tonbridge robbery. Are you psychic or had you heard a whisper?
Yes, Barry I knew all about that robbery beforehand!
Nothing really getting me going today at all for buying purposes though.
Probably lack of sleep isn't helping me to make decisions. I always think it's
better not to trade if you're feeling under the weather.
Barclays has rocketed since
I bought it and there is no stopping it - I see no reason to take profits yet.
Same comment regarding De La Rue.
Carphone Warehouse has broken out
of a recent trading range, looks good for a run up to 300p.
CSR is likely to be shaky
today and who knows what'll happen tomorrow, results day? Investors are easily
panicked and a drop is possible even on good results. As a long-term if a little
bit of a reduced holder I feel it's a goodie. But it could easily be 950 or 1150
tomorrow!
Pantheon Investment Trust (PIN)
has been a great winner and is going up 5 or 10p daily!
Shanks,
Hunting and
Brixton are all breaking out of
previous ranges to complete a rather good day!
Thursday 23rd February
He was a bit nervous at first but soon enjoyed himself and enjoyed
climbing in and out. I can't get over what a lovely boy he is.
But even though he cried and didn't want me to go I know full well the
moment I'm out the door he stops and enjoys playing with the others right away!
Isn't it time they put Davina McCall out of her misery and scrapped her
disgrace of a 'chat show'. She's great on Big Brother but completely wrong for
this.
The Apprentice was good entertainment as always - although that's what it
is. All this guff about these are the best business people in the country is
bunkum!
It's fairly obvious the producers chose some people for their
entertainment value - like the crazy woman with the frizzy hair.
You have to wonder what Sam is doing there. I would have fired him.. he
said he wasn't a salesman and seemed happier stacking fruit! Not much of an
apprentice!
Alan Sugar has also become more of a caricature for the TV - you can now
tell he's just playing a part and loving it. He's deliberately become more
crotchety than ever because it makes TV. It's obvious he is a nice guy really
with a heart of gold!
Poor Ben I think it was who got fired deserved it. He would never fit in
at Amstrad let's face it! 7 people to run a fruit stall! The girls were lucky to
get away with their strategy.
It's still the best thing on TV and great fun to watch. However it doesn't
tell you much about the real business world like the American series does. And
in the end, most of them just want TV exposure rather than the 'Prize!'
There should be a twist at the end for the winner, what would you prefer..
the job with Alan and having him on your back every day, or £100,000 in cash! I
think I know the answer!
Two trades today... one buy and one sell... first the buy.. well it's a
bit irritating., I bought 5,000
Northern Recruitment (NRG) at
120p this morning. Target
145 Stop
103.
Why irritating? Because I was about to buy yesterday at 112! I went out
for a cup of tea and toast to find them up at 117! I went Arrrggghhhh, poo and
bum and decided not to buy cos I'd missed my price.
I looked at them again this morning. They are just too much of a bargain
so I decided to buy them even at a bit higher price. And bugger me if I missed
the 117 and got 120! Still, I believe they are a bargain even at this price and
they are worth nearer 150. They are massively oversold.
The market cap of £20m now looks too low given it's still profit making
and the last statement was reasonably upbeat. Looks like the company is turning
a corner and given the recent Harvey Nash statement which is in the same sector
(recruitment), this one looks an excellent recovery play.
I think there is 15-20% here and a likely bottom of 110 to support the
shares. And with some heavy buying in the 112-120 area, looks like good support
is coming in. I expect to only hold shortish term though.
I needed to raise some cash to buy NRG and with a very large exposure to
CSR it seemed sensible to bank a bit of profit. So I decided to take small
profits on CSR early this
morning. I took profits on one out of my three positions at
1040. We'll call it the ones I
bought at 786.6 so that banks a
profit for the site of £2,020.
That means I still have quite a few! Looks like they'll bottom out in the
1000 area and they still look a great long-term hold. I'm still holding profits
of more than £15,000 on the rest! Let's hope results next week are great!
Elsewhere Barclays
continues its great run with the banking sector looking hot!
Burren is trying hard to conquer
1000 again. Mouchel Parkman is
going well again as is Hunting,
looks like that one could storm higher.
Brixton creeps higher and
Paragon holding well as is
MTL Instruments which could
easily rocket another 30-40p before results/promotion from FTSE fledgling.
Fenner is back over 200 -
still looks good for a rise to 220-230.
Pantheon IT just keeps on rising every day while my other I Trust,
ISU, is ready for a run.
Wednesday 21st February
Amazing how people start up businesses like restaurants without having a
business plan or plough in their life savings. I would never buy a restaurant -
it's very difficult to make a profit and it's hard work.
People start or buy businesses without realising the amount of work needed
- they seem to think money will roll in with little effort - it doesn't happen.
Bit like the Telecom Plus business. New distributors often come in, pay
£200 and then don't do any work on it at all expecting orders to come in with no
effort. But those who work hard at it get the rewards.
Talking of business the UK Apprentice starts tonight at 9pm on BBC2 always
worth a watch though you wonder whether this should be the last series as it
could begin to get repetitive.
Let's face it, what we want to see are bullshitters all trying to outdo
each other! Bring on the arrogant, vain, egotists and let them all fight and
bitch with each other.. sounds just like some of the bulletin boards!
Robbie, It's Pete again
from Co Mayo. Avonley hit a raw nerve today when he warned us about chasing tips
and loosing money. I started off with a small sum of £10K six months ago and
like everybody else I thought that all I had to do to put myself on easy street
was follow the 'Tips' and buy all the hot stocks on the BBs. I did exactly that
and six months later my portfolio had gone up to - surprise, surprise, £10K.
But the one share that has outdone all others that I hold is an Emerging
Market I.T. So I spent a whole weekend researching the 'Top Twenty' I.Ts and I
found out that most of them had made a return over the last year of between 30
and 70 %. Which then forced me to conclude that I have been wasting my time
jumping in and out of these moody penny shares.
Two weeks ago I sold my complete portfolio and reinvested all of it in 9
I.Ts. I know that past performance is not a guarantee to future performance and
things could take a downward turn, but I am confident that these I.Ts will out
shine my previous portfolio in some style (And Investment Trusts do not have
profit warnings either)
The moral of this tale is that penny shares are like naughty girls - very
dangerous and very attractive - but which girls make the best life partners? I.T.
girls of course. Keep up the good work Robbie, I always read your web site when
I come home from work.
Good mail! As I say best to do your own homework and avoid other people's
'tips'. As to IT's I like them too though if the market goes down, they will
too!
The share price is pretty much unstoppable and I think there is more to
come. However I would expect it to be quite volatile.
Well done me for selling Harvey
Nash the day before a good trading statement! Doh!! Oh well, just shows
how easy it is to get things wrong. In the end though I suppose I did get a
profit. Be interesting to see whether the shares start to dip again.
Burren continues to be
strong and has regained a lot of lost ground this week - it's trying to push
back over 1000 which would open up 1050 again.
ISIS small companies (ISU)
net asset value went up again, only a matter of time before the share price
follows. Some good movers today. My recent buy of
Barclays is coming up trumps with
a huge rise so far today.
Also going well is Mouchel Parkman
and Shanks. Quiet day for most of
my other stocks with no real moves of any note to report.
CSR is trying hard to
regain ground and is very volatile.
Wolfson is back over 380 but a move to 400 is needed to get some
confidence back.
Tuesday 21st February
Now I have the river view it amazes me to see so many people running along
the towpath and all the oarsmen rowing away. It's great to see, especially when
you're watching them with your feet up with some tea and toast!
Last night Elizabeth said: 'You look deep in thought'. Indeed I was.
However sadly I wasn't thinking about the world, the environment, politics or
other important matters.
It was great finding the hidden toy in the box - always loved that as a
child and very sadly I appear more interested in the King Kong toy than
Christopher. It couldn't be that he's already more mature than me?
My only reason was yet another failure to get through the 52p area.
However I am thinking about this stock as a bit of a trading stock, ie buying in
the low 40s and selling in the late 40s/early 50s. Of course I could be wrong
but if I am, well at least I bagged a decent profit!
My thoughts right now are to think about taking some profits off the table
as the market nears 6,000 which could signal a bit of a sell-off though this
could be a few weeks away.
In the meantime a lovely day. I got an e-mail asking me if I was worried
about a market-maker sell in yesterday's buy
ISIS small companies trust (ISU).
My answer was no because that doesn't much matter - it's the net asset
value which will move the price and I expect that to go up more!
In fact the net asset value went up 4 or 5p yesterday and expect another
rise today - the market makers can't hold the price back much longer I'd say! I
expect a 5-6p rise soon.
Plenty of good recovering stocks today which goes to prove my theory of
not selling and panicking at the slightest thing. The
CSR thing was indeed a storm in a
teacup and it rises well past 1100 again.
Wolfson going well too.
The oils doing nicely with Burren
looking set to try and topple 1000 again.
MTL Instruments still going well
- what a huge rise yesterday, this looks like a re-rating going on before its
promotion from the Fledgling Index.
My other recent IT buy Pantheon
is now in profit - but boy that stupid spread! Now in profit on
Brixton (thank goodness I did not
have an auto stop loss on it).
Havelock Europa looks to be
consolidating before its move to 200p. And loads of others holding on to recent
gains and looking set to go higher including
Atkins,
Gyrus,
Hunting,
Mouchel,
Highway,
Rotork... in fact, the whole
portfolio!!!
Monday 20th February
Anyway look I guess I don't want to make you all fed up with me going on
about how happy I am in the new place and I should really shut up about it.
However at some point in the next few days I hope to post a pic of the new
trading office and of course Christopher.
I remember going for a drink with Clem Chambers, Managing Director of
Advfn recently and he hasn't had a TV for 12 years.
He says he feels much better off without one and instead of slumping in
front of it every night he has a much better quality of life writing, reading
and socialising. Something to think about!
Right - the seminars.. latest news... I have one person who has
transferred from March 10th to March 24th. That means I have one space open
suddenly for March 10th! If you want to grab that space e-mail me pronto!
There are now only 2 places left for the March 24th seminar, again, I
expect both dates to be sold out by the end of the week so if you have been
umming and arring as to whether to come now is the time to decide!
If you want to grab the earlier March 10th date please put 'Mar 10th' in
the subject line. Also let me know if you don't get that one space and would
still be happy with the 24th, please advise! Details on the seminars somewhere
below.
Mailbag time! Andrew
writes: Interesting to see yours and others views on stop losses on your
website. I am still not totally convinced about not needing auto stops as my
experience last week will show.
Hi Andrew - well there's one occasion when an auto stop loss would have
worked but even so I still an happier looking after my own SL's.
Why? Because this trust has a brilliant stock picker! Basically it invests
in the same companies I do - excellent value and low risk small companies.
These shares are its top ten holdings right now - guess what it its
biggest shareholding is in - one of my favourites MTL Instruments. Here they
are: MTL Instruments, Havelock Europa, Mouchel Parkman, Victrex, Restaurant
Group, Xaar, Morgan Crucible, Brewin Dolphin, Domino. Note the first four are
all shares I hold!
So by buying this trust I give myself exposure to a lot of the companies I
already like and some new ones that I like the look of but don't even cash spare
to buy! So all in all I love it. The trust is at a good discount to its asset
value which is just under 350p.
Trusts like these don't really move on buyers and sellers but on the net
asset value which is published daily. As it and the shares in the trust move up
so does its share price. And it can be bought just like a share. And with MTL
and Victrex flying today that net asset value should be flying!
My four positions in one of my big favourites of the last few months
MTL Instruments are really
looking good now.... the shares have stormed through 500p today which is very
bullish and I'm glad I kept buying as it went up and tried to ignore the fact
there are only 3 market makers.
VP - another long-term
favourite has just pushed through 300p! I'm in at 130 and 195 so as you can
imagine I am rather pleased!
WS Atkins has burst right
through the previous sticky 785 area and a push through 800p would be very
bullish. Victrex too is flying
today . Highway Insurance has
gone through 75p - another great sign.
The oils are recovering with
Burren, Tullow and
Dragon all nicely up. Not such a
great day for the chip stocks. CSR
is down on worries over playstation launches - looks like a storm in a teacup to
me! Mouchel is beginning to
head back up as the recent profit-taking looks over.
Fenner is trying to get up above
200 again.
Finally the high risk share I bought at the back end of last week reported
today - glad to say it was a great report and the share is up nearly 5% on the
day!
Past Commentaries
Thursday 12th January to Friday 17th February 2006
Tuesday 18th November to Wendesday 11th January 2006
Wendesday 24th August to Monday 17th October
Wednesday 20th July 2005 to Tuesday 23rd August 2005
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Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
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Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
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