I have good news and bad news! The bad
news is the next update won't be till next Monday! The good news is after that
the site will be updated daily again! You have to hand it to Tony Blair - what a
brilliant speaker he is - I think if I was in the Labour Party I'd be thinking
why are we getting rid of a genius of a speaker and replacing him with an
absolutely crap one?
And even though I don't think he's really getting things right in many
areas he does seem to genuinely believe what he says - or.. is it just good
acting? Maybe! We will all miss Cherie Blair and the way she gets herself into
trouble.
My mum continues to improve in the rehab
centre although it looks like she'll be there for a good 2 months. I am going to
use that time to clear up her house and make it easier for her by trying to get
a stairlift put in and various other improvements. My Dad has been making a
right mess while she's been away so next week a load of cleaners go in! Nick writes: I've recently started spread
betting the FTSE100 by doing this: Each day I decide if it might rise or
fall (although it doesn't seem to matter), based mainly on where it is in
relation to the previous day - month and any expected news. Then I place the bet at 8am, set a limit
for a very small profit of around 4-8 points depending on my confidence and go
to work. Only £1/point mind as I'm testing the
concept but it seems the natural volatility of the market guarantees these small
but regular profits so next week I can go to £2 etc. Am I just being lucky? Why doesn't everyone do it? I know I
could get caned one day by a big movement the other way, but I prefer to sell,
thus ruling out unforseen events ie terrorist attacks, and I try to avoid having
a position overnight. It usually only takes an hour or so to
get the movement so the odds of being in the wrong way at that time seem pretty
slim? I keep an mind as it can be just the
anxiety who provokes an illusion of time expansion. Do you know them? Please let
me know what you think.
Markets
A really brilliant week so far with lots of shares moving
up very smartly - more in a moment - first the trades. I bought £12 a point at
834 in Collins Stewart (CSLT) on Monday - target 950, stop 785 - this is viewed
as a short-ish term trade.
The chart looks excellent - the broker is demerging towards
the end of this year - its broking and interdealer businesses will be separated.
I think many will be getting in ahead of this and the price is rising fast
today.
I expect Havelock to produce full year profits of about
£7.5m so I believe the shares are underrated and will hold onto my recent trades
which I am still perfectly happy with.
However I exited the trade I made a while back at the top
of the market at 160 and sold the 3,000 shares at 134 yesterday to take a loss
of £792.
I made a mistake here because I should have set a tighter
stop loss and should have cut the loss far quicker. However I am perfectly happy
to keep the other positions and expect the shares to bottom here and then
gradually rise. It's hard to see why they would fall any further.
Christopher is developing into a bit of
a daredevil. We took him swimming at the pool we have access to at the apartment
and his favourite occupation is jumping from the pool steps into my arms. He
gets all excited just before he jumps waving his arms around like a demented
lolly pop lady... A contender for a record talking
marathon if you ever need one. Plenty of useless info from the Spanish Civil War
right through to making a good tomato sauce for Pasta. (Plenty of garlic). And he buggered up all our pension plans
and takes loads of tax off us while pretending not to. In the end let's face it
he's a sneaky bastard! Stuart writes: It's very, very nice to
see individual shares moving to their own rhythms again and not just blindly
following the indexes up and down. Good to see Petrofac roaring up nicely,
it really is a ridiculously undervalued share and I think despite oil probably
having one more biggish drop in it it should continue to make it's way to 400
quite easily. Agree with you on the Sunday Times. That
price rise is ridiculous. My parents came back from hols abroad and their eyes
nearly popped out when they saw that price rise. They won't be buying it anymore and I've
been reading it on the net for the past two years. Anyway I'm off. Hope your Mom
gets better and hope you all stay well. Also loved that story about the airport
The only way to make money from the
markets is not to try and set such stiff targets. Better to start off trying to
make 10% from your capital to at least double that from a bank. Don't believe
claims like this! BUT, I've only got say £100 or so to
initially invest and not all the thousands. Would it be best I go for Spread
Betting to start with on a pittance?
Markets
A quietish start to the week though a few good movers so far
today. One new buy today and that's Ben Bailey (BBC). I bought 1,000 at 497.45p
- target 590, stop 460.
A nice big buyer has moved the price today buying more than
13,000 shares at 500p. I have also bought a high risk one which those who
subscribe to the e-mail will get details of.
I have just had a very interesting
brochure from The Ritz. They obviously reckon for some reason I would be
interested in spending Christmas there. My 20 month old is now beginning to pick
up quite a few words, so sadly no longer can I mutter extremely rude words when
my favourite share heads south, From now on it is his favourite phrase only
allowed: 'Oh dear...' James writes: I have just spotted your
current portfolio and read it with interest. I see that all of your shares
have stops. I asked my broker about putting stops on share purchases and he said
that this was not possible for private investors, only for very large
institutional investors (investing gazillions). What stockbroker(s) do you use? I guess it depends on how much time you
have to watch your stocks. At the very least it is best to set SL's at least 12%
away from your buying price to be on the safe side, perhaps even 15%. They came up with the idea of a new NHS
computer system that would allow electronic access to patient histories around
Britain, making it easier to treat people in different locations, the system was
designed to hold the records of 30 million patients at a planned cost of £12bn. IBM pulled out because of the huge
complexities involved and the small company isoft took it on, I guess they
wanted the money, their shares soared, however 2 years later it is behind
schedule and the total cost might now top £30 bn. This money is coming form the
Government's 1% increase on national insurance, which was supposed to pay for a
better health service, which it may have done had they decided to waste it all
on a system that we did not need. We need beds and doctors and nurses, and
I think that this waste is criminal and they should be prosecuted for wasting
funds in this way. I have recently, unfortunately, had to
spend a few days in hospital as a result of a car accident which broke my arm,
and I found the nurses and doctors very hard working, spending long hours
operating and seeing patients and with the right management, and not the
management they have now, it could be made to work. There is gross waste in some ways but
they cut back on ridiculous things like paper clips, the nurses said they were
like gold dust because of the cut backs, Cornwall is seeing more and more cut
backs in hospital staff, the latest is that secretaries will go and it will all
be done in china, can you imagine the confusion that would cause. I could go on
but I felt that people should be aware of what is happening to our NHS and
taxes. It made me realise many things and
stopped me from doing alot of stupid things. I don't expect to be an overnight
millionaire, but if I can make more than I do with my money in my e-savings
account it's a big plus. I've made some good and bad investments
in the past, but the one thing that you said that is so important is maintain
your capital otherwise you're always catching up and taking bigger and bigger
risks!!!! Enough of my rambling and a sincere thanks to you and your inspiration
to me and many other readers I'm sure.
Markets
Great day Thursday with plenty of good risers but not so
hot today! However over the two days plenty of stocks going north with some good
breakouts.
Charter has seen some good rises and looks very strong
indeed and I would expect it to head up to 900 by year end. Croda has been a
huge winner since I bought at 402 - looking good now at 510 - it looks like a
real winner from here.
The early autumn sunsets here are just
amazing. It's great to watch the sun sinking over the river even though it means
days getting shorter. Strangely I actually do believe Lib Dem
members really do believe in their party and are probably have the most earnest
members out of the three parties. I stick all the rises in the small print
and you're all just pleased I didn't put booze up much. I've nicked billions
from all your pension funds too - think I want you lot to save? Balls to that -
spend spend and spend some more!!' Site news: Due to this busy time for me for
the next 2 weeks site updates will remain Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. My mum who suffered a stroke recently is
in the process of being moved into a rehabilitation centre and I hope to see her
today or tomorrow. She seems much brighter. At least I won't have to see that
bloke anymore who keeps telling me to shoot myself when I get to 80! I did buy at 1150 aiming for a 200+
point upside but kept raising my stop loss by small amounts (trailing stop
losses). I suppose I was quite lucky facing such a sudden drop, currently 274
points down. On the plus side WLF did drop in
sympathy but as you mentioned 'a completely different company from CSR' so I did
hold on, only dropping the twenty odd points from Friday (you did well catching
the 460+ price!). Here I do have I my cushion/profit to ride on but there is
that limit!
Markets
One new buy and some profit taking to report plus I've let
some spread bets die on expiry. First the buy which is a return to Carphone
Warehouse where I took profits recently. Looks a good time to get back in as
it's rising after what's been quite a big drop.
Lovely late Summer weekend wasn't it? We
enjoyed being out and about on the bikes with the young lad. Can you believe
winter is round the corner already? Site news: Due to this busy time for me
for the next 2 weeks site updates will remain Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Owen writes: Is there a reason why
charter doesn't pay dividends and do you think Mr Charter holds too big a slice
of the company making it a bit illiquid? I too liked the results but was
bothered by these two issues, your opinion would be welcome. Charter obviously believes it's better
to hang onto the cash for the moment. The share is a FTSE 250 share so is
extremely liquid so no worries on that score either!! BUT if they have had a good life then
you just can't ask for any more. As for shooting yourself at 80 -some people are
very fit at this age and by the time you get there, with modern medicine, you
would only be the equivalent age of a youthful 60 year old! However the
government will probably insist you work until 75!
Markets
Mouchel Parkman (MCHL) is a share I've held for a while -
it's not exactly an explosive share but it slowly but surely goes up over time
and is the sort of safe and steady one that should be in a decent ISA portfolio.
I've also got some in my SIPP (the bit that isn't high risk).
According to a survey politicians are
less trusted than estate agents...Now why am I not surprised? Because we are fed
up with the lot of them - do they need the list? Gerard writes: Just to balance your view
of the NHS. My son (15 Yrs Old) was diagnosed with Osteosarcoma (basically Cancer
that can occur in teenage boys when growing up) at the end of July. Both are hospitals that were old but now
are new (i. e brand new buildings). The service provided by both hospitals was
second to none. The nurses and doctors were amazing and
now I feel that although me and my wife have paid all these taxes for the last
30 years, I feel that it was justified.
Markets
A couple of pretty good days. I've done a final top up in
Havelock Europa (HVE) where results are out on September 26th. I just can't
understand the low rating on this one.
The valuation of the company looks way too low for declared
profits - I would guess the next full year will show profits nearing £7.5m.
Charter is being buffeted all over the place by day traders
but who cares - this should go to 900p - it's a matter of just being patient.
Just a reminder first the next update is Friday. It's amazing - you can pretty much get broadband for nothing anywhere you go these days. Charly writes:
Robbie when you do a
spread bet and you set a stop is that a guaranteed stop with your spread betting company if it is does that mean the moment the share in question dips below your stop you get closed out immediately ? However for new investors not certain of themselves they may be worth it. I keep an eye on my own stops and when reached decide when and if to cut it.
Markets
It's been a busy time the last couple of days! Three buys and a sell. One risky one to report and one I would not recommend in my book and not one that figures at all in the way I normally try and value fundamentals.
I was going to put this out on the high risk SIPP mail only but it is actually very liquid and ISA'able so I decided to add it to the website.
I am simply attaching myself to their coattails in the expectation something is afoot. If it isn't I shall get the hell out pretty damn fast! It's moved up a little since I bought sitting around 33-35.
The rating looks undemanding even for a retailer and as with all in this sector you never know a bid could be round the corner. So Yesterday I bought 4,500 shares at 131p. Target 160, stop 120. Looking good so far as hovering at 135 today.
There is a risk it could test 720 again but I can imagine these being up at 900 by year end unless there is a major bear market - it's a long-term hold.
First of all site updates! You'll be
glad to know after this week updates are going up to four days from 3 then I'll
resume 5 days a week from October when things get busier. So this week updates
will be Wednesday and Friday as it has been (ie no update Tuesday or Thursday). I just read it online now. Not even as
good as it was. The Money section is boring and repetitive, the Business section
doesn't break any decent stories anymore and there's just too much crap. Nigel
writes: Please convey my very best wishes to your mum for a speedy recovery. My
mum has been a nurse for the majority of her working life too. A Ward Sister.
She used to tell us stories of waste and
incompetence you wouldn't believe. She also ran a 40 bedded ward with just two
nursing assistants. She is 80 now and five years ago she suffered a stroke too.
One side was paralysed and she lost the power of speech completely. Her care was
lamentable. When it happened I called the GP to say
that I was sure my mum had had a stroke and described the symptoms. Oh no she
hasn't he insisted. Several telephone calls later the GP decided to call round,
4 hours later. He took one look and panicked. I'll get her a bed as soon as I
can he said. Two hours later he called me and said, you can either wait six
hours for an ambulance or you can get her down to the hospital yourself! I did
it myself. Several days later I was told that she
had had a major stroke which had effected a large part of her brain. I'm a
nursing assistant and have worked on general medical wards and also with
learning difficulties with challenging behaviour. I've also helped my clients
access care at various other hospitals. I can honestly say that the NHS is
rotten to the core. The last place I want to be when I'm ill is in hospital. Mum
received no physio at all and was eventually released into my care at home.
The pair of us were already looking
after her brother who was dying of cancer! Not sure how I managed, but I did.
Her recovery over the next two years was nothing short of miraculous.
Markets
That old saying about 'come back to the markets on St
Ledgers Day' (Saturday) hasn't really come true has it with stocks down today!
It got a knock recently from the house pack fiasco but has
recovered - but even so I don't think on what's been achieved that the shares
are worth much more than 250 or so. If the market falls heavily RMV should get a
caning.
I'm thinking about profit taking in
Britvic as it couldn't make it
past 225p but just sticking with it by a thread. My various bits of
profit-taking last week are working in my favour giving me plenty of cash
A breakthrough
- my 19 month old son can
now say... 'yes!' Which is great as he's only been able to say 'no' for a while.. however I suspect the word no will be used a lot more than the word yes for a few years. (Except when he's 18 - Do you want your trust fund now?) Mark
writes: Hi Robbie did you hear the Tories want to abolish stamp duty you were on your hols when the news came out and you have not mentioned it they say it will put 4 billion back in the market. Their range of services is highly comprehensive including CFD's, European shares, mutual funds e.t.c. I contacted them recently to enquire about their services and was impressed that they didn't try the 'hard sell' approach. I simply sent in my change of address details and at the time I was not living in an EU state, but there were no problems. I suspect that it would be the same with any dealing accounts that were opened prior to going non-resident (I only came recently to trading so did not plan ahead on that). At the moment I do not earn enough through trading to get any where near CGT, but my accountant thinks that I would not have to pay any way. Vote Conservative and there is no stamp duty (so you say). They do not charge any commission when drawing money out of an ATM, and their exchange rates are consistently 2% to 5% better than anyone else that I have found. That includes interbank transfers and money exchanges. My wallet was well tucked away and before the incident I would have thought it impossible for anyone removing my wallet without me noticing. The incident was planned to precision.
It happened just as the train pulled in one of the stations. There was (in
hindsight) a slight diversion were we were standing, the doors opened and just before the doors closed again I was pushed to one side and a chap jumped out. I immediately realised something was wrong, I felt my back pocked, the wallet was missing.
By this time the train had
pulled away from the platform. The whole incident took maybe a minute or two. Without as much as saying good bye the policemen left. Fortunately, with the help of my son whom I contacted by phone, I was able to stop my cards. A purchase to the value of £750.00 was attempted with my card that afternoon but as the card was suspended the purchase was not authorised! My friend was not so lucky though, his card was used for a similar amount before he could stop it.
Markets
Phew, quite a lot to get through from the last couple of days..a couple of new trades to report and a bit of a sell off. First a new buy (well not that new) and it's VP (VP.) I am already in profit by £6,000 on a position I've held onto for quite a long time from 130.
Some very heavy and significant buying that went on yesterday. These were BIG buys, altogether something like 3 million quids worth.
And to seal it for me some of these deals were conditional which means they are trading on credit and someone somewhere is expecting something rather good to happen to the shares in the next 4 weeks. In fact I wonder if there could be a bid on the way.
The sector it's in got a fillip the other day but it was short-lived. If the market goes down, it'll get hammered, so it's there as a kind of hedge against long positions.
My feelings about all 3 were all the companies are good, all have a bright future, but I would rather pocket profits now and maybe come back another time. Just a reminder first there's no update tomorrow (wed) - next update will be Thursday.
Markets
The timing of my buy of Walker Crips (WCW) yesterday proved to be, well, lucky really! At the same time as I bought so did a director of the company - announced this morning a buy of more than £30k of shares. This helped the shares to rocket 22p today and I wish I'd bought more!
The director obviously thought the same as I did that shares in his company were way undervalued and his buy looks one to follow. Just glad I managed to buy before the news came out.
One I have played with and made giant profits before - Aminex (AEX). I bought 20,000 at 27.49p.
Target
32, stop 25.
It's a straightforward risky
oil exploration stock.
I'm buying because volumes have suddenly perked up which might herald something in the offing. If that is not the case I shall be gone in an instant!
It is certainly not a stock my book would recommend or I could recommend on fundamentals. But I don't mind a very tiny proportion of my ISA being in a risky one.
Yes, I know I already have some at 100p or so lower - but this reverse takeover looks really good news and it's not all in the price yet.
So I'm in for more.
It doesn't mean the company is going downhill - So my belief is the drop is a false one and it'll go back up soon enough - in fact it has already recovered an earlier fall this morning.
Remember directors in CSR
were cashing in options at 600!
Same comment to
Wincanton which at last looks like it's going to bring home the profits!
Gyrus and Victrex both go very well today as does Burren.
Fenner reported a decent enough trading statement today. Wolfson and CSR that have both made me a lot of money over the past year continue to motor and look great.
The Admiral short is being helped by a lack of buying on today's results - the company looks fairly valued. Lucky for me when time to take profits is that a bumper dividend is now priced into the spreadbet price so I can come out at a lower than market price.
Site news: There will be an update
tomorrow but not on Wednesday. Due to a boring reason - floor oiling! (Told you
it was boring). Roger
writes regarding the ex pat who wants to trade from abroad: For what it is
worth, I have been a non UK resident for four years. There are significant tax
advantages (I don't pay any, nor do I intend that my benefactors pay death
duties) but there are also disadvantages when it comes to trading. The key is to hold a UK bank account and
probably to reside in the EU. It is also good to have a UK address that they can
write to (if you are British then you must surely have a relative). I trade with
Selftrade and there are some differences when transferring funds, but on the
whole it has been very painless. Money laundering legislation courtesy of
our friend Bush and others no doubt remains a pain for honest Johns who would
prefer to remain anonymous. Is there such a thing as a roving
account?! (Just declaring perhaps which country you're currently working in.) I
assume if your income is generated abroad (& therefore not liable to UK tax),
that you could set up a country specific online trading account which would
allow you to trade freely but still be legal - ie. rendering you liable to tax
in that country only... not UK. Does that make any sense?!
Markets
One new buy to report this morning - that's
2,000 shares in
Walker Crips Weddle -
(WCW) at
301.5p. Target
390 stop
275. This looks like a real
goodie to me - it's been way oversold and it looks like a fantastic price to get
back in.
With hardly any downside and tons of upside looks a bargain
buy at these levels to me and I think the share will soon attract buyers pushing
it back up to near 400p.
My view is I will probably take profits on the ones I
bought at 12.9p at 30p and so run the rest bought at 16p and 18p for nothing.
Some good news ahead I feel.
Well, talk about drama ! We got to Gatwick
last week for the start of our holidays in Italy. The queues to get through
security were enormous.. anyhow we got through it all with Christopher doing
very well to stay calm. If the plane had gone without me how
would I get home or get another ticket? And what about poor Eliz and Christopher
- up in the air not knowing where I was? At this point I will leave you with
this cliffhanger and pick up the story on Monday. Now who said this site was
boring?
Markets
Goodness me - what a fantastic week on the markets it has
been since I last updated with tremendous gains right across the portfolio!
It doesn't look like they will move for a long time now and
might be worth a buy again in six months. I sold at
47.75 on Wednesday for a profit
of £262 on the
46p position and a loss of
£168 on the
49p position to make a total
profit of £94.
These three buys look pretty good now as MPH is now nudging
24p. 30p looks like it could be quite a speedy target price now with possibly
more on the horizon.
Engineers Fenner
and Charter both score highly in
the last week too. Creston is up
a decent 10 points and goes higher today.
Wincanton has broken out over 320
and Sondex is up 15. That's it - we're off to somewhere in Italy for a holiday. No idea where, left it all to Mrs NT to sort it out! She stayed there earlier in the year, it's 5 star so should be OK. It's somewhere south where the Italians go - I can't speak a word of Italian though am working out how to say to the cab driver 'please charge us normal rate, not tourist rate!' Cheers Rob. Given the amount of due diligence that goes on during takeovers and the professionals crawling over every statement, it's very hard to understand (believe?) that nobody saw this bombshell approaching to land literally days after the takeover was concluded
Markets
I'll be keeping in touch with things while I'm away but I guess it'll be a quiet week. Some trades to report before I go. I bought some Carrs Milling Industries (CRM) this morning - 1,300 at
523.5p.
Target
590, stop 465.
However the company did say its agriculture business had always been challenging but it had not stopped it from continuing to make good and rising profits.
As the share price hasn't moved much for quite a while I get the feeling any slight uncertainty is pretty much priced in whereas any new good news isn't. I guess we shall see! On my normal calculations the shares should be trading around 700p!
A shame as I do want exposure to the sector but I hope I'll still get the money back plus a profit. Perhaps I should have been a bit more patient.
Just some advance notice: there will be
one more update on Wednesday then I'm off on my holidays to Italy. So the next
update after Wednesday will be Friday next. Who would put money into a bank having
just announced that there was some 'accounting errors'! Everyone would be
straight down there queuing to withdraw their money.
Markets
Lots of good news around the place for my lot. Star of the
day is Keller which published a
really excellent statement. This has promoted broker upgrades - the shares are
up 4% but there is at least another 100 points to come - the H1 results were
really bumper. I vaguely remember Tuesday though it's a bit of a blur..Oh yes, I remember! I was sitting on the sofa at 5am with my sickly
18 month son Christopher on my lap watching 'Teletubbies'. It's great cos it diverts him from feeling sick. How often do CEO's appear on Bloomberg TV advocating their company to the investing public, whilst privately their spouses are dumping shares, even whilst they speak?
I always put a stop loss on my spreads, so that I can sleep easier. But if the stop loss does not work, where is the protection. Can you please enlighten me.
Markets
Things are looking remarkably good today considering the doom and gloom that's around. Two buys and a short to report. Carphone Warehouse (CPW) has been weak for a long time - I took profits some time back while still holding onto a few shares at 215p.
It always amazes me that investors don't realise that is the reason for a drop and so sell for the wrong reasons - it's always surprising how much selling goes on on ex div days! What the hell happened to the weather?
Hailstones, thunder, lightening! Actually been quite enjoying it - fantastic views of the lightning over the river. Here's hoping this plane delay/aggro thing stops soon - we're due to fly to Italy on holiday in a couple of weeks.
It's really a holiday for Christopher more than for us
- it'll be fun watching
him on the beach though being on a beach all day isn't really my cup of tea. But you have to make sacrifices don't you?
Markets
What a terrible start to the day...and the biggest loss I've had to take in many years. It happens very occasionally but is happening more and more in the markets when a company announces 'accounting irregularities', actually in this case fraud.
This usually means someone/some
people have for whatever reason been lying about profits made.
Unfortunately if you are holding that particular share you have simply been robbed and I feel like I've been mugged this morning. It's like walking along the road and without warning they leap out at you and steal your cash.
I feel like camping out outside their offices with a
placard: 'Give me back my money you bastards'. I usually try and learn lessons from a big loss. But there isn't anything to learn here.
I've been robbed and I hope the lying bastards get put away. The fact the word 'fraud' was mentioned was enough to get me flying for the exit even if it was only in 'one division'. The only comfort is at least it wasn't an Enron and it isn't a bust situation.
The share goes ex dividend for half a pence on Wednesday so if it is down by less than a half at the close on Wednesday it is effectively up if you get me. Cosalt also goes
ex div for 6p on Wednesday so the same comment applies except swap the half a pee for six pee.
Phew - looks like we're all in the clear now and well again - that wasn't
a nice week ! Christopher in particular is back to his best and is running
around all over the place, he's a great fun boy... Recently the price dropped gradually
then a biggish buyer came in only for the price to rise again. Do market makers
keep some of the shares on sales and purchases only to shift to the right buyer
or is it just market conditions? This system works by letting big brokers
like Barclays and Schwabs etc put through trades for small amounts (say 500 on a
stock that is up in 5000) without the MM having to manually execute every trade.
This means that sometimes the MM will be
short or long lots of shares. So occasionally they will have to level their book
and either buy or sell some. They sometimes do this via a mm cross or
by buying from other MM's which will get published but they also sometimes know
that a certain broker has a big client with a lot of size to do. This means that they can accumulate a
long/short position knowing that at the end of the day/week they will be able to
get rid of their longs/cover their shorts by executing with this big client
(these clients can sometimes be pension funds and other type of funds). Thus a MM can accumulate a position over
a period of time (sometimes days/weeks) knowing that they can get rid of them.
Markets
Share prices still aren't really going anywhere and most
are stuck in a bit of a rut as the market really appears a little rudderless as
we enter the peak of the holiday season.
Volumes are pretty much non existent and for the most part
the market makers are just leaving things where they are. Of course this will
all change come September when a lot of companies will be reporting earnings.
However it has been a pretty damn good year so far so I am
just taking this as a little break and spending much less time in front of the
monitor and I suggest my dear readers do the same! Ugh! It's been a grim couple of days here on the river. First I was really sick, then Christopher then Elizabeth got it worst of all. I will save you the symptoms but suffice to say a lot of cleaning up has been needed!
Markets
Anyway last night some bloke in the States with a weird name made some comments which had the following reaction - market storms up, then down, then up, down, up and then finally down.
The only thing I can assume
is it can't have been totally bad as there was no crash or anything!
Typical isn't it? Just when you think
everything is great sometimes life gives you a kicking - a bit like the shares
market... Look, you don't want to hear all this
moaning do you? But thanks for letting me share! Before I forget remember the
next update is Wednesday as I'm not updating Tuesdays or Thursdays during the
summer.
Markets
I dunno. These days whether shares go up or down seems to
be determined by what some bloke in the US says! Anyhow I bought one this
morning - now it is not the sort of company I would normally buy - it's too hard
to value and it's not an area of the market I am comfortable in.
But it is bouncing very strongly and the bounce could
easily take it back to the float price. Certainly a director buying what is a
huge amount for what is a smallish share makes me feel confident.
I have to be be honest however much I
love you readers (cue puking) I am enjoying having some time off in August and
updating three times a week instead of five! 'In The sweltering summer months you
would think Christmas would be the last thing on the mind. But today scores of
people queued outside Aberdeen's Queen's Hotel to book their festive nights out. I spend a lot of time on this at my
seminars. Also shares like Marchpole are also traded on plusmarkets - so there
will be many trades that you may not be seeing...
Markets
Tricky times... thin volumes, bigger spreads.. not the best
of times to be a new investor... US figures that usually push the markets one
way or the other are due at 1.30.
I suspect I shall take some action this afternoon depending
on how things look. The figures could cause a big slide or a good rise - anyone
got a coin? Still, 95% of the portfolio is well in profit so plenty of leeway
for me.
I believe this segment of their business should be going
really well and their website www.cosalt.plc.uk explains their
businesses nicely.
One very interesting huge buyer yesterday was on a
'conditional' trade which means the buyer is buying the shares 'on tick'
expecting some kind of announcement within 20 days or so!
I'm sure those of you not on hols yet
and working in offices are enjoying it..The boss is away.. time to put your feet
up and do as little as possible while e-mailing your mates or buying stuff on
the net? Lovely! He then winked at all the women along
the street who looked back at him obviously thinking 'what a pillock'. Which he
was. Luckily he asked me to pay off his gambling debts so I could exit fast from
the friendship. My top cheese? Sunny by Boney M. Doug
writes : Quick question: why do shares open above or below the previous days
trading? Surely they should open at the same level and then rise or fall? Is it
the effect of dastardly market makers (your expression I think) responding to
events outside trading hours?
Markets
Well, it's still intriguing that despite the fact most
traders and investors feel the market has topped and it's a long way downhill
from here it's holding up amazingly well and I've made quite a bit over the last
month. Of course it could easily go downhill but for right now there is money to
be made.
So I'm glad to be able to buy on the dip here today. This
share and Hunting are in the oil supplies area which I don't think has been
really discovered yet which is why Sondex could have an awful lot more upside.
Some good news and bad news! The good
news is I'm not going to shut down completely over August. The bad news is that updates won't be every day for a bit. As I mentioned before I want a bit of a rest from the site for the summer, it takes me a good couple of hours a day. But where was Gary Davies? You wonder underneath whether all the presenters are simply terribly depressed once the cameras are off..Christopher watched some of it and his favourite was the Spice Girls - he seems to have taken a fancy to baby Spice.
Miserable bunch they are. I'll soon be charged more for my river view even though it's already charged for because it's an expensive bloody apartment already! How much more am I going to have to pay in sodding 'council tax'? If any of you bought the book 'The new Spend Less Revolution' - 365 tips for a better quality of life while actually spending less'. By Rebecca Ash. I'd be interested to hear your views - the Mrs is reading it again after her review last week. The book is about how you can live on less, spend less and yet be far richer and happier for it. 'As many of you know, Robbie likes to joke that I spend too much money (so
unfair!) so I shouldn't have been surprised when, the first time he asked me to write something for the site, it should be to review this book on spending less!
Rebecca Ash makes a lot of interesting points about why we buy things we don't need; how shops trick us into parting with our cash and how even though we know 'stuff'
doesn't make us happy we keep
accumulating it anyway. She gives lots of examples of truly pleasurable alternatives to spending money as well as '365 ways to spend less'. This week, since reading the book, I have cut right back on my spending (though Robbie won't believe it) as I agree with the author that simple things like a bike ride with the baby or making something actually gives more pleasure than endlessly shopping for things I don't really need. When I checked my email earlier and saw the usual special offer-type emails that are sent to willing consumers (mugs) like me, I just smiled and deleted them. After all, Ash has made me realise, who is really benefiting from all this spending? Simon
writes: Hope you and your family are well. I know you have been disappointed with the quality of TV programmes on recently, so just thought you'd be pleased to know that the Dragons Den returns to BBC2 on Thursday evening AND with 2 replacement Dragons (replacing the woman and the American guy. Hope that cheers you up a bit re the tele. Keep up the good work re your website. So in a way buying your book has given me a kick up the backside, and I will start things moving. I tried your quiz at the back and I scored 13 which is ok. What I would like to ask you please, did you open a separate money account just to put your money into just for shares, as I want to do, my plan is to put a certain amount into the account so as not to dip into our current account. As for money I am very disciplined and never have any debts. and I will and have not bought anything that we cant afford. if you can give me your views on this I would be grateful, because I wonder how to pay the broker etc.
Markets
I've nipped in for some more Interserve (IRV) today - I'm not going to add these to the website holdings as I already hold two positions. But I like the look of the break back up to the mid 380s today.
One suspects results due next month are going to be rather good and could push the shares near 180. At the very least they look like going to 160 in short order. I have quite a big chunk of these now and glad to have them.
Mrs NT has just heard Ken Livingstone on
You and Yours' (wonder if he got £50 like me) suggest bicycles have registration
plates like cars. That's a step too far for me. They can
bang me away in prison before any plates go on my bike! This bureaucratic jerk
is going to far now. Bikes are all about freedom and it's
time us apathetic Brits stood up for ourselves against this stupid bombardment
of crap. In fact if this ever happens I am going to quit the country. And so
should you! Web Master: ( just for balance ) If a
cyclist gets hit by a car, who's insurance is the claim on ?. The car driver.
And if a car gets hit by the cyclist who is the claim on ? The car driver. Why
should the liability be only one way ? Run a red light in a car and get £50
fine and 3 points, or do it on a bike and not get fined for it because he/she
has no registration thus no road I.D. A cyclist should have some form of
training and testing to show competence on the road just as a car driver has to
take lessons and a test. Registration of cycles, full insurance
and yearly testing, just as all other road going vehicles are required to have
by law. Can't think why cyclists should be exempt. What about a contribution toward the
upkeep of the roads ?, guess car drivers should have to pay for that too ? Oh
yes, and stop riding on the pavement please ! WM shut up now b4 he gets
fired ! Back to Robbie:
Markets
I was intending to get back into
Havelock Europa (HVE) in
September and sell at a good profit in December. Why? Because every single year
it goes up between September and December and results are bang in the middle. So
I bought my last lot at the wrong time which is why I am sitting on a loss on
them! Although we managed to self assemble
Christopher's country house, we've given up with my office desk and the coffee
machine! I think each coffee cost us 20p to make
(mainly the cost of the milk) and it sold for around £1.70. I reckon each
regular customer was worth £3,000 pa to the cafe including some food buying. Alan
writes: If I wasn't 100 miles away, I'd assemble your office table myself
tomorrow (it's too hot to do anything else). I was just thinking, didn't you
have a run in some months ago with some investment letter or the like, regarding
logging trades at mid price. I've found this happens at Trendwatch and sent the
following to the editor, it's just not right. I do enjoy reading the newsletter and
your investment ideas. However, I have to raise a point which I can't agree with
and will be considered at my renewal. You take great care to calculate the
benchmarking against the index but when you buy/sell you use mid prices. I feel
this is unfair on us and incorrectly improves your portfolio performance. A recent example, Oak Holdings, has been
recorded buy at 2p and sell at 2p. In the real world, we would have paid 2.25p
and sold at 1.75p which would be a loss of 22%. You don't show this, therefore your
performance figures are not real and exaggerate your performance and cannot be
relied upon. I also subscribe to Techinvest who do use bid/offer prices which is
reflected in the performance. As they finish their article on the
share, just take the average of the real buying price for the day. Or even last
trade..I think it is worth hammering away at this so the more these publications
and tipsters are challenged the better!
Markets
Sadly Barclays sold the
Broker Network shares I was holding in my ISA this morning selling
9,000 shares at
176. This is because BNH is
among many shares they had allowed in Isas but the tax people will not allow
them anymore.
So it was Barclays fault for allowing them - to be fair
they did give me notice they were going to do this and there is nothing I can
do. Robbie Burns has been trading successfully for over 7 years, having spent 1996 to 2001 as finance and general editor for Sky TV's text services. Robbie has started this commentary page on Sky and Channel 5 text in 2000 and ran it until summer 2002, during which time he made profits of more than £50,000, even during the bear market from 2001. Robbie now runs an independent cafe and catering business, but trades more or less full time. He uses ISA's and PEP's to avoid tax liabilities and runs his own pension fund in a SIPP. Visit his site here
When I come home from work I find that the limit has triggered and I have
my profit. This has been successful almost every single day for about 6 weeks
and I'm up 90%.
Hi Nick! I hate to rain on your parade but... it's very unlikely that your
system will make you money over time, as I'm afraid good runs usually end in
some kind of disaster! But well done on making the money!
Manuel writes: I spreadbet with XXX , not very frequently but I notice
that sometimes when I want to sell or close a position, it takes sometime to go
through and in meantime things can change.
Hi Manuel - afraid the firm you mention might offer tight spreads but my
readers tell me constantly that they have trouble closing at the price they
want. This doesn't happen as far as I know with Cantor and
Capital Spreads who I use - execution at the price stated usually in five seconds...
I took profits in White Young Green yesteday selling at 364.1 for profits
of £2,970. The results look pretty good but for now it looks like the shares are
up with events.
Havelock produced in line results but went down on the back of some bored
investors drifting away and some attempts by a market maker to get the price
down possibly to fill an order.
I took a loss of £110 on my WPP short yesterday at 645 as it was beginning
to show a lot of strength. It never really quite made it into a profit. However
my short in Provident is showing profits of £600 so there is still hope I can
make a profit from a short!
All in all that now brings the taken profit totals to over £240,000 for
the first time with many more thousands more profits on paper.
Elsewhere it is all pretty fantastic with loads of shares breaking higher
and I'm sitting on profits of at least £30,000 maybe more.
Croda saw a decent director buy which is helping to push the price up - my
buy at 402 is looking rather good..Thank goodness I switched from shorting
Admiral to buying it and sitting on profits of about £1,500 which is rather good
and getting tempted to take them as they've rocketed up.
Also rocketing higher is Charter trying to break the sticky 810 area.
This week's buy Ben Bailey is heading higher slowly but surely and looks good
for another 50p or so. Carphone Warehouse is also leaping up well - I got in at
a good time.
Walker Crips is on the march again and has been looking strong - when it
decides to move it usually goes crazy so it could be one of those days! I'm
still looking for 370-380.
The oil services companies are marching back up with Hunting and Petrofac
- both fine undervalued companies - going higher and I expect them to be way
higher within 6 months. Sondex has retreated to the rights price but I would
expect a sharp move higher once the placing is out of the way.
Vislink motors up again - my guess is the next statement will be red hot
and it'll move up sharply in the weeks preceding that. Keller too keeps up
its momentum and other risers include Celsis which goes well, Creston and
Wolfson.
The only real disappointments remain the sleepy Scott Wilson and the short
in Rightmove. But both could still come good! So all in all I remain extremely
happy with progress.
Investors will get nervous as we head into the worst trading month of
October and some are worried with the Dow hitting highs.
As usual I cannot call the market and will just trade things as they
happen rather than trying to guess it. With US housing prices coming down, a
hint of lower rates over there could even see a good October!Monday 25th September
My mum's rehabilitation centre is pretty good. The nurses are jolly and
really help the patients to try and get better. Thanks goodness the bloke who
told me all the time to shoot myself at 80 hasn't moved there.
Mum needed lots of things like blouses, pyjamas and, er pants. I collared
a customer at a clothes shop I went to and she kindly helped me choose things
like, em, ladies pants.
In the bed next to my mum is a Spanish lady who has a terrible affliction:
she can't stop talking! Really - I'm not kidding. No-one gets a word in, the
nurses my mum or me. We all take the mickey out of her but she doesn't care.
Here's a surprise: John Prescott doesn't want to go at the same time as
Tony Blair, apparently he wants to leave 'on a high'. The only way he's going to
leave on a high is if he snorts some white stuff up his nose before he clears
his desk.
The Labour conference should be entertaining especially Gordon Brown
trying his best to be charismatic.. 'remember to smile, Gordon!' Poor Gordon - I
don't think he'll get the job - he might be hard working but he is so... nerdy
and needy!
Adam writes: Have you heard of Darren Winters and his WIN investment group
seminars and what do you think of them. Is he a successful investor? I paid
£1400 to attend one of his two day seminars which promise to teach you how to
achieve a weekly income of £500 using only a £2000 initial investment. I feel I
have wasted my money.
Hi Adam.. afraid have not heard great things about these seminars - quite
honestly anyone who says they can teach you how to make a weekly income of £500
from £2,000 must be a miracle maker!
Anthony writes: Great website! Enlightening!
Just a quick question. I too would like to leave the ratrace and get on the same
track as you.
Hi Anthony! I really think £100 is not enough and I don't think it's
enough to consider spreadbetting. I suggest you 'papertrade' for a while - i.e.
pretend trade without using real money - so learn the trade first. I would wait
to trade real money till you have £1,000.
Craig writes: Hope all goes well next Friday, definitely the best advice I
picked up from yourself is to avoid aim stocks, well at least you highlight how
risky they are. One point to stress next week I think!
Thanks Craig - I will be stressing that though I would point out not ALL
Aim shares are bad! They need to be looked at in a different way from main
listings though.
Home construction companies are usually lowly rated but Ben looks too
under-rated and would be a brilliant fit for any number of other companies and
I'm mainly buying because I can see it being bought by someone in the next year
or so.
And even if it isn't, it's a very solid company with rising profits and a
recent dividend increase of a massive 20%. Looks like it's about to bust
500p today and the chart looks terrific.
I sold Arc - at 32.51p - for a small loss of £58. My reason was the lack
of follow through buying - I thought the big buyers would carry on buying but it
didn't happen. The shares stay on my radar though.
Jessops got a nice bounce which continues today and my other retailer
Halfords is also going well too. Charter begins to look very nice indeed and if
it can get through the 810p area I can see my 900p in sight!
Interesting to see Tullow bidding for Hardman., Looks as if there will be
more consolidation in the oil sector and it looks worth holding oil companies
this winter. Admiral continues to do the business for me - will be hopefully
taking profits near the 800p mark.
Croda looks good as it settles nicely over 500p with more to come. A good
director buy at CSR reported today. Keller looks strong - we just need to get
through that 700p area. And good old Carrs Milling looks like it's about to take
the giant leap through 600p!Friday 22nd September
Guess how much it is for two of you to share a room at The Ritz staying
there the 23rd, 24th and 25th, including food. You won't get near I reckon but
the answer is at the end of today's market report!
Gentlemen by the way are required to wear a 'Lounge suit' for Christmas
meals (what the hell is that? Sounds horrible!). A jacket and tie is also required in the restaurant and 'jeans and trainers' are
not allowed in the public areas of the hotel.
I guess they want to keep the riff raff out - and count me in with the
riff raff if someone thinks I am going to wear a 'lounge suit' on Xmas Day or in
fact on any day they must be joking!
Last time I wore a tie was in 1994 for a job interview and that's the way
it'll stay unless the market goes tits up (sorry ladies) and I have to get a job
again!
I've ordered him a blackboard and chalk as he seems to like writing.
However favourite occupations at the moment include but not exclusively:
Picking T-bags out of the bin, ripping them open and squeezing them all
over the floor and himself. Emptying smoothies on the floor and dancing on the
juice. Grabbing my mouse and nearly making me buy dud shares (I'm sure he tried
to buy 10,000 shares in Tadpole Technology the other day).
Grabbing my DVDs and CD's and emptying them all over the place. Maybe he's
saying 'For God's sake Dad how ancient are you? Everyone downloads music onto
their Ipods now - get with it!'
I currently go running and see people running towards me with Ipods
attached to their arm - they give me envious looks because it looks like I own
the brand new tiny Ipod. Whay they don't know is that it's a £2.99 pocket radio.
Amazing what you can pick up on AM.
I see Ming Campbell has been trying to show how 'with it' he is! He even
knows all the new current music... he reckons Bananarama is a dead cool band and
enjoys listening to them and the other hot underground band Kajagoogoo on his
IPod!
Meanwhile Ken Livingston - the man who brought 'fare's fair' to Londoners
with cheap tube travel is now more interested in putting prices beyond a lot of
people. £2 for one bus stop! £4 for one short tube journey! Can this be the same
man?
He spends his time making it impossible for anyone to get around London
with countless measures all designed to make life more difficult. Congestion
charge, 'bendy' buses, huge fare rises, hundreds of new traffic lights, road
humps, ridiculous parking charges, no help for cyclists. Doesn't matter how you
want to get about because unless you walk he will make sure you are hampered.
Please, let's hit this hideous character out of office!
James, your broker I believe is talking cobblers. I'm sure many do them,
Barclays does I think for sure. And all spreadbetting firms do them!
However just because you have stops doesn't mean you have to let them mind
them for you - I use stops as a guide and cut the losses myself if I need to.
The problem with letting your broker do it is you might get stopped out on
a momentary spike down and it's quite possible with a lot of shares especially
early in the day. My view these days is investors should mainly handle their own
SL's.
This from Mary: I thought I should tell you about this dreadful waste that
our dear leader and his cronnie Mr Brown came up with to throw away public funds
that could have gone to help the hospitals all over the country.
Mary could not agree more and this is exactly what the NHS staff are
talking about at the new hospital my mother is at. The waste is amazing....
Justin writes: Thanks for writing a book that is understandable and
digestible rather than the usual double dutch!!! I think many people feel
embarrassed about how much they don't know.
Thanks Justin - exactly you have got to preserve capital and that's one of
the most important things to remember...
Carrs Milling continues to rise most days at the moment and is up again
today and 600 looks like it's about to be conquered.
Carphone Warehouse is doing the business for me very nicely since I
re-bought a few days ago and the run over 300p looks bullish.
Telecom Plus has come up with some new phone/broadband packages which look
better than most other deals especially as they are including line rental in
their packages - this should enthuse distributors and is already showing in the
share price.
My retailers Halfords and Jessops both go well - on the verge of
breakouts. My favoured oil services sector is perking up - Hunting and Petrofac
look like just taking a breather with both looking undervalued.
Sondex is holding a placing to raise money for expansion - fair enough and
I shall be taking up my rights - should see the company through to the 400p
area. VP continues to see quiet buying going on - I still wonder if something is
up!
Keller looks good and trying to get over the 700p mark though volatile and
Admiral is holding up admirably though I would consider taking profits soon.
It's tempting to buy stock on weakness today but I've held off the moment
to see how the market pans out over the next few days given the Dow is sitting
on a high. I took some profits this week so have some cash sitting there.
And how much will The Ritz set you back over Xmas? The answer: a mind boggling
£4,400!!Thursday 22nd September
One boat managed to get stuck on the river during low tide and we enjoyed
watching a dramatic rescue by the river police.. flashing blue lights and
everything!!
Why does the media spend so much time discussing the Lib Democrats?
They're never going to get into any serious power.
But their policies have always been muddled - probably actually too
earnest in many ways.. green taxes, what the hell does it all mean? Poor old Sir
Ming seems a lovely chap but is not a vote winner.
Can you believe the Hungarian PM actually telling his people the truth? No
wonder they all went crazy! Can you imagine if Tony Blair and Gordon Brown told
the truth?
Can't quite imagine Gordon saying: 'I've stuffed all you idiots on taxes
pretending I've actually cut them when you're paying 30% more you bunch of
losers.
Now here's my 'Killer' policy for any party available at a small fee. Stop
any council making a profit from parking fines! All parking schemes from now on
can carry on as they are but after costs of running the schemes have been paid
all profits over and above must go to local charities!
Traffic wardens will no longer be figures of hate there will be less anger
on the streets as, well, at least the money is going to charity. If you do
overstay your welcome, again, you'll be less angry about it because the money is
going to a good cause.
Clamping to be made totally illegal. Cars only towed away if causing a
real obstruction. There - that should pick up a few votes!
Mick writes: I managed to survive the panic this morning with CSR and WLF
within a spread betting account under a guaranteed stop loss. I read the news
with CSR before 8 this morning and decided to pull the plug.
On-line they were having technical difficulties so I rang up and was told
that I was in a queue for closure (I wanted out at bang on 8!). 10 minutes later
my account was settled at my stop of 1005.
I think my message is that when newbies enter this market place they
should tread with caution and build up a sizeable cusion/profit so as to take
the hidden punches dished out of the blue like this.
I am sure all of us were waiting for better news in the coming weeks but I
would rather be protected. Might take 3-9 months for the recovery with this one.
Good to hear about you mum's progress and I am sure your mother would
agree that you keep up the good work!
Thanks Mick, pretty much agree with everything - stop losses are very
important and you did very well to get out at that price!
I expect some bother over customer service re their broadband offering but
it doesn't much matter - the company is going places and looks like the falls
are over. I bought 1,500 shares this morning at 287.64p. Target 330, stop 260.
Did a spot of profit taking in the two shares I mentioned last update -
neither can seem to break resistance points so I've exited.
First is Britvic where I sold for 220.87 yesterday - may main reasoning is
the inability to crack 225. I could be wrong and there could easily be a bid but
there we are, my decision is to take the profits which are a decent £652
The other profit taking is in Wincanton which is zagging between 300 and
325 - it just won't break the range and I'm out. I may get interested again if
it can get through that 325. I sold for 314.3 just before the close yesterday
for a profit of £140 .
It was expiry day for spreads yesterday and let two expire, not sure of
the prices but they normally get closed at mid price. These were pretty elderly
bets - Fenner at about 198 for a profit of £850 and Dragon at around 164 for a
profit of £3,710. So total profits booked for the site are £5,222.
Elsewhere more good upside today from Carrs Milling which looks like it's
about to head over the 600 mark. That's been a nice trade so far.
Havelock is rising slowly though the one market maker is still holding it
back. Keller continues to try and get above that tricky 700 mark. The Provident
Financial short is going very nicely, glad I held on as nearly took profits last
week.
Also some good rises for Admiral, Charter too looks on the verge of an
excellent breakout. Celsis has started a good looking new rise and Vislink is on
the way up after a recent bout of profit taking. Monday 18th September
Mum is about to be moved to a rehabilitation centre where they will work
on her arm that is paralysed and also help her to walk properly again. She seems
to have her wits about her again which is great.
The party conference season begins with the Lib Dems who seem to be in a
muddle over tax policy. It's quite simple: we need a flat tax. Do away with
'national insurance' which is just extra income tax in another name. Let anyone
earn up to £10k without being taxed then call it 25% for anything above doing
away with allowances.
Tax exiles can come home, tax evaders will stop bothering to evade.
Simple. It will let those who earn a lot of money keep more of it and those who
don't earn much keep more of it too. And I believe the tax take would actually
go UP.
It also means they can sack loads of useless admin staff. The tax system
is a complete shambles. They apparently can't even open letters for four weeks.
Not surprising given how stupidly complex it all is.
So if I earn say £50,000 grand I owe £10,000. Simple. No need for great
big incomprehensible tax returns. If I earn £20,000 I owe £2,500. Easy peasy -
bet the same or even better revenues would come in. On Wednesday I shall reveal
my killer policy - the one which if any party adopted it they would win the
general election!!
Hi Owen - I'm not bothered by either - actually I'm not bothered by
dividends personally would prefer companies didn't pay them and used the money
to develop the businesses further!
Craig writes: Keep us posted about your mum. My dad is old and it is quite
sad to see him/them when you have known them as a kid being fit and strong.
Hi Craig - work- I hope I never have to work again - I expect to carry on buying
shares till the grim reaper comes for me!
I've seen some new strength build up in it so I bought a few more on
Friday afternoon - 1,400 shares at 364.93p. Target 420 stop 330.
Mouchel is winning its fair share of Government contracts and at the very
least should not be worth any less than it is now. Nice one.
CSR came out with a warning that revenues will not be as good as expected.
Luckily I only have a small amount of CSR left at 749p so nothing for me to
worry about there as I switched into Wolfson quite a while back while holding
onto the final small amount of CSR which I've kept for the moment.
There was a knock on drop for Wolfson but though WLF is a tech share it's
a completely different company from CSR and the early sympathy drop for Wolfson
seemed unfair - and they say fortune favours the brave - so I topped up my
Wolfson holding for probably the last time and bought 987 Shares at 462.95p .
Target 550 stop 410.
That proved a good move as the share quickly rose from that level and is
nudging 490 again so I made quite a nice percent quite quickly!.
A broker analyst who at the back end of last week had urged clients to switch
from Wolfson to CSR must be spending a lot of time in the loo this morning. I
can imagine calls to his desk are being dealt with as 'He's not available this
morning'.
Shall we name and shame? What the hell - congrats to Douglas Bence for
this fantastic advice to his clients at Bridgewell - it's 'buy' stance on Shed
Productions is reiterated so if you're in Shed get the hell out! Honestly these
broker recommendations! They move markets yet mainly turn out to be cobblers.
Brilliant results from Petrofac shows my support for the oil services
sector was not misplaced - time for Hunting and Sondex to start rising again
too. Petrofac based on these results look worth nearer 400 than 300 and I am
going to stick with them for quite a while.
Good statement also from Burren this morning pushing the shares back up.
It's worth holding for an inevitable bid that will probably come in the next
year or so.
Big write up for Charter in the Mail on Sunday - price again goes up and I
have no idea what it's doing at 765 when it should be 900p.
I hope some Marchpole holders don't think they've won the lottery this
morning as ADVFN shows them up 388%! Afraid it isn't - just a share
consolidation - so they are really pretty much unchanged! However the
consolidation - 1 for 5 -- should enable more institutions to take an interest
and immediately makes the spread smaller.
Havelock Europa is on the way up prior to results - some good buying
coming in though it looks like one of the market makers had a bit of stock to
get rid of. But there have been some good buyers around and a market maker had
to buy 25,000 today. Once the one market maker left on 140 moves, HVE should
sprout wings.
A good leap for Keller today - Halfords looks good. Walker Crips went up
Friday and could be on the move again soon. Two on my thinking of taking profits
lists are Britvic and Wincanton - they are both trying to get above resistance
points and I'm giving them one last chance!Friday 15th September
The lies, the gobbledegook (I.e Gordon Brown's Budgets), not answering
questions, deceit, ego, voting for policies they disagree with, not listening to
voters, etc etc.
I think they don't realise we just want to hear one of them say: 'Actually
to be honest I screwed up!' Admit the mistakes - it will get you a lot more
votes.
I stumbled across an old Star Trek last night - it was the one where Spock
falls in love with a rival female commander. Forgot what fun they were -
fantastically un PC with conversations you'd never get away with now.
My mum is still in hospital but gets moved to a rehabilitation centre next
week which will be nicer. There are people around her screaming their heads off
a lot of the time so she has trouble sleeping. It looks like she is over the
worst for now which is a relief as I had thought she was in real danger.
The treatment that started then was so impressive that I had to respond
when I read your views on the NHS. I suppose I am lucky to be in London and the
two hospitals that my wife and I have constantly attended in the last six
weeks are University College hospital and Barnet hospital.
You need to realise that I am one of your fans and I have directed a
number of my friends and colleagues to read your daily mutterings. Hope you will redress the balance.
Hi Gerard, sorry to hear about your son. Of course, happy to
redress, but when I slag off the NHS it's not the doctors and nurses who do an
amazing job - it's the way the money is allocated to the wrong places...
My mum too is in a new hospital and the standard appears very good. I
really hope your boy will be OK, it must be a very worrying time for you. I hope
he will recover and be well.
Kenny writes: Would be interested to hear your view on Marchpole
consolidating shares. Why are Marchpole doing this and how will it effect the
share price?
Hi Kenny - as I wrote on the site the other day companies tend to do this
to lift their shares out of 'Penny share' territory
They prefer their shares to trade at say 200p rather than 20p - it tends
to narrow the spreads and encourage institutional investors so it looks a good
move by Marchpole.
It does cause problems for unaware investors - for example when this
happens it will look like Marchpole shares will have risen by a huge amount
whereas it won't really be the case. Confused investors often try and take
profits on a consolidation!
There doesn't seem to be any problems in its businesses and it looks to me
that the shares should be up in the 180s not the 140s. I guess we shall see in a
few days or whether I've got it wrong!
But fortune favours the brave in the markets and I bought 3,500 shares
yesterday at 139.25p to add to existing positions on the basis the market will
wake up to this one after results. Some buying has started to come in too.
The FD bought a big chunk of shares just before the closed period at the
end of July and that looks significant for a good set of results to come in a
few days. Target 180 stop 120.
Elsewhere some good movers for me over the last couple of days. One of my
high risk sipp picks has gone up more than 15% which I'm pleased about - more
news on that to those who subscribe to the e-mail service.
The other star today is Carrs Milling, up more than 3% - when this one
moves, it moves and it looks like it'll have been worth being patient with it.
Also going well is Keller which look set for a run back up to the 700
area. Creston is up today as is MSI. On the disappointing list is Sondex and
Petrofac, can't understand why they haven't bounced back yet - Petrofac results
are out shortly so that should clear up the picture.
Wolfson has leapt over 500p in the last couple of days which makes a very
bullish case for a 600p target by year end which is what I'd forecast a while
back. The Rightmove short isn't going well but sticking with it for the moment
and can't see why anyone would be a buyer.
My recent Admiral long is in a great profit but looking greedily for
another 20 points or so. Britvic needs to fizz up through 225 soon otherwise I
shall take my pretty decent near 10% profits.
Unsung hero Mouchel Parkman is perking up nicely - always holds during
market turbulence and just keeps going up slowly but surely.Wednesday 13th September
I did a little experiment and went to two Starbucks near me. They have leaflets there explaining how you can get on the net for a charge with T-Mobile.
But all you have to do is ask the computer to list wireless broadband networks nearby. At each place there were at least 3 unsecured networks within reach which you I could click onto for nothing and use. Not only that there's one within reach at home!
Of course I realise as unsecured networks someone could see what I was doing. But I doubt anyone is and if they are a few share trades won't interest them. I am not silly enough though to bring up my bank account online!
Especially if you live in somewhere like London it really is getting easier and easier to log on anywhere for nothing. Ah, nothing like a coffee, a bun, and a trade from a comfy Starbucks armchair.....
Mum seems a bit better and they'll shortly be moving her to a rehabilitation hospital. She is definitely more coherent and the memory is recovering... phew!
It'll be great to see her up and around again - she misses driving her car but to be honest I can't really see her driving again.
Christopher continues to delight us all - latest word is 'Miow' (thanks to the cat there) and also he enjoys saying 'Rory' - his best friend at nursery.
I actually don't use guaranteed stops myself because of the cost of the extra spread charged by the firms - I think in the long run it doesn't pay off.
The share is a risky tech one Arc (ARK) and I bought 12,041 shares yesterday at 32.99p - what I like about it is how quiet it's been and recently some big buyers are coming in and it's heading up.
So to sum up, a high risk play for my ISA for a small amount which could pay off with strict adherence to the stop loss for a small loss if it doesn't!
I'm a bit hesitant of retailers but Jessops
(JSP) looks to have turned a
corner and after doing badly the stores seem to be back on track.
And finally today I had to top up in Charter
(CHTR) and bought 500 shares
at 747.84p.Target 900 stop 710 - this adds to my other buy made a while ago at 711.
Excellent results yesterday saw a big jump for the shares and there was some not surprising profit taking this morning from the traders. It's traded quite a lot by people trying to grab a few points so it's volatile. This investor took advantage and jumped in to get a good price at (hopefully) the day's low.
I sold my risky Aminex yesterday for 27.5 to break even. As you can see I am a bit jumpy on this one - the failure again to get through 30p was the key for me though really anything could happen here and it could be a mistake to come out.
Plenty going on - confident AGM statement from Marchpole and interesting to see there is going to be a share consolidation - haven't worked it out but the shares will be listed as 120p or whatever instead of in the 20s. Usually this is good news as the spread should end up being a bit tighter and it tends to make the shares more tradable.
So if you own Marchpole and in a few days you see them listed at a much higher price I am afraid it is not time to celebrate!
(well not yet anyway).
Enterprise reported pretty good earnings so I'll stick with it though no sign of a bid. Still can't quite see why the oils services sector has been hit - nervous investors I guess - but I shall keep my nerve and stick with them.
Hunting and Sondex are recovering though Petrofac needs a good kick.
Not exactly sparking results from Provident Financial today where I am short. Why they are up I have no idea and just about sticking to it but would hate to lose the profit.
Keller's still doing great. Vislink is trying hard to conquer the sticky 80p area and looks like that might be cracked this week especiall after the director buying. Halfords is inching up pretty well for me and the oils recover nicely.
Chips Wolfson and CSR are doing me proud..
Wolfson looks tantalisingly
poised for a break through 500 - if it can manage it this week that will look very bullish indeed.Monday 11th September
Christopher (my 19 month old) is getting funnier and funnier by the day.
He loves banging spoons on the table and laughing which my mum says exactly what
I enjoyed doing.. (I still do!)
He's wearing me out though - he can't get enough of me and him running
around a room jumping over a blanket or me hurling him into the air. The gym?
Don't need that anymore!
Mum seemed to have improved when I saw her yesterday though she appears to
have had a row with one of the nurses! The man opposite repeated his advice
again and told me to shoot myself when I got to 80. I said I'd bear it in mind
especially if I screw up my SIPP.
She hates the hospital food but been smuggling her in cold Cornish pasties
which she seems to like and she will be moved shortly to a rehabilitation
centre.
The Sunday Times has gone up to £2. £2!! I think they've made a mistake -
Sunday papers are now so expensive that I reckon most people will just get 1
instead of 2 or just give them up.
Labour continues to come up with more and more stupid laws that are not
only stupid but un-enforcable. Plans to bring in new laws requiring every
bicycle to have a bell and every cyclist to use it to alert pedestrians to their
presence.
Those found guilty of riding without a bell will face on-the-spot fines,
with maximum penalties of up to £2,500 or two years in jail.
Just shows people who come up with stupid laws know nothing about real
living! Just try having a bell on your bike in London - it would be stolen
within 2 hours (as well as any moving parts that can be removed quickly)
The police would love it - just nick the cyclists for having no bell, give
em 2 years and don't worry about bothering with the difficult things like...
burglaries, muggings, that type of thing..
But after all that, do you know what really pisses me off the most? Mum
worked hard to feed us and put a roof over our heads. We didn't have much Aaaah.
But she did manage to put a small amount into a NHS pension. As a result the
government say that she gets too much to qualify for anything else.....by a
couple of quid! No wonder people don't bother with pensions these days.
Hi Nigel - glad your mum recovered. Agree with your comments - the nurses
try really hard but there are simply too many pen pushers and not enough on the
front line.
Peter writes: Sorry to hear
about your mum. I know where you are coming from with regard to hospitals and
not enough being sent on them.
When my mum fell and broke her hip last year, it was my 2 sisters and
myself which supplied 12-14 hours of cover for her at the hospital to ensure she
ate food. The staff were wonderful, how they cope day in and day out is beyond
me. There was just too few of them. We have a hospital in Stevenage which has
many wards closed due to lack of staff.
My partner went in for an op on her finger and they were keen to discharge
her that day as they would have to move her otherwise to another ward as there
were no staff for the night shift. Where does the money go? I know you will look
after her. Parents can be a pain but you miss them when they are gone.
Thanks Peter - agree with your comments.
However I took advantage of some weakness in
Keller (KLR) and bought some
Friday afternoon as I kind of signalled I would and picked up a further
750 shares at
652.8p. Target
800 stop
602.
That adds to my little Keller collection of buys at 611.9 and 651. I still
think this looks a lovely strong solid company (look out for the profits warning
tomorrow!) - one that should withstand any market weakness during September.
I've added another new short - this time in
Rightmove (RMV) and sold for
£25 at
332. Target
280 stop
355. I just can't see how this
one can be valued at what it is at the moment.
That switch to being a buyer of
Admiral has worked better and faster than I could have dreamed and it's
very tempting to take the extremely quick £1,000 or so profit sitting on the
table from just 2 days. But I think I'll stick there a bit longer - it rose
hugely in a falling market the last couple of days and the same today.
The smaller stocks seem half asleep today probably because the market
makers are enjoying making money on volatility elsewhere so are not too bothered
with playing around with prices in the smaller stuff. So stocks like
Vislink,
Marchpole and
Carrs aren't doing much.
VP holds well after recent strong
gains as does Walker.
On the disappointing list today are oil and oil related stocks and my
favoured oil support services sector is down today. But I don't feel worried
about it (just yet!) so sticking with them. Tuesday 7th September
Oh my. Spent a while at the hospital with my mum who has had a stroke.
Very depressing experience. The elderly woman in the next bed said: 'When you get to 80, just shoot yourself..'
My mum has a heart scan while I was there, no results yet and she can't move one arm and her legs are dodgy. She's still all there thank God and moans about the hospital food though praises the care. I just hope she pulls through it. I am kind of preparing myself for the worst.
Mark thanks - it's great news if they get in - the market would love this and shares would soar and top I'd save over £10,000 a year and our pension funds would save a packet too..
Gareth writes re ex-pat trading: There is a company called Internaxx that specialises in providing brokerage services to Ex-pat investors (www.internaxx.lu). They are based in Luxemburg, and have the backing of two highly respected financial institutions i.e. Fortis Bank and TD Waterhouse.
On the same subject, ex pat Roger:
Perhaps the most important thing is to research and plan ahead if you are thinking of jumping ship. For example I can not open a UK bank account any more, but every account I had including credit cards, still runs on.
One UK account that I have found to be very useful, either as a resident or non-resident travelling abroad, is a Nationwide Flex account.
Grahame writes on this topic too: Ref you mailbag and the people wanting to trade abroad. An internet account can be accessed anywhere and am not sure they know if you are in Spain or Sussex.
I spend about 15-18weeks in Spain a year and continue my trading either via S/bet or Barclays Stockbrokers. Never had any problems ( except Spanish dial up which is horribly slow ) All funds come back into my UK account but that is no problem. Both accounts were set up in UK but again you can set up S/bet accounts online anywhere in the world.
And finally today Ben: Read
Kate's and Nigel's recent comments re St. Petersburg and Big Brother respectively with interest. I fully agree with both of them. In Kate's case I would like to add a few comments just in case any of your fans intents to visit St. Petersburg (in Russia) in the near future.
Some beautiful buildings, especially the churches, to see and the Hermitage/Winter Palace is a must. However, some caution needs to be exercised.
During our visit (in May) we travelled on the Underground. During the 10 Minute journey my wallet and one of my friend's wallet was stolen.
We made our way back to the hotel where we were staying and with the help of the receptionist called the police. This was in order to obtain a police incident number required by most travel insurance companies in support of a claim.
The policemen informed us because the incident happened outside their jurisdiction i.e. on the Underground they had to charge a fee of $100.00 dollars for writing the report! I explained that I was in no position to pay that fee as I had lost most of my cash and my cards and we had still some days remaining of our stay here.
We later found out that apparently St.
Petersburg Underground is notorious
for it. So lesson number one: Do not use the Underground while there.
Lesson number two: Do not have too much faith in the police.
Lesson number three: Have decent travel insurance.
Thanks Ben = good words of warning to any of you thinking of travelling there!
But I have added again for a particular reason.
It's not that I think the
shares now are especially undervalued even though it's a good steady company. My reason?
So Detective Inspector Burns has taken all these clues and bought this morning 1,500 shares at 288.65 and 1.500 at 288.7. As we're friends for the record let's call it 3,000 shares
at 288.65! Target
350, stop 250.
I added a new short yesterday on
Provident Financial (PFG) at 651 for £20 a point - target 600 stop 665.
I've shorted this one a few
times - some success, and some failure. I think I've got the right point to short it this time, well, I guess we shall see.
Now for a bit of a sell off - 3 of my lot reported today - all 3 reports were fine. That's MTL, Umbro and Galliford Try. But all three were pretty much as expected and I didn't think about any of them: wow, these are really going to rocket.
So profits are: MTL - my
1,000 position at 343 was sold at 461.5 for a profit of £1,185. And my
428 position of 1,400 shares was sold at
455.8 for a profit of £385 which leaves total profits for MTL of
£1,570.
Next Umbro sold for
148.2 for profits of £136 and Galliford sold at
120.33 for profits of £246.
And more. I've sold one of
my Telecom Plus positions, the 4,000 shares bought at 102.75 I sold at
135.05 for profits of £1,291.
I've kept the other position, nothing sinister just profit taking.
The Admiral short was
dumped yesterday at 684 for
profits of £140. I'm lucky to
make any profits at all - but the dividend is incorporated into the spread firm's price which means it is lower than market price so I just scrape it.
Should have obviously sold at 667 and nearly did but hindsight is a great thing.
Also taken profits on the spreadbet Carphone position at
277 for profits of £480, again profit taking in case of a weak September market.
And taken one loss in Cosalt
- sold at 286.32 today for a loss of £263
- also got 6p dividend so
not much of a loss really. A profits warning yesterday
- actually it looks quite
strong and could come back a bit more than it already has but my policy is not to hold shares that have issued warnings. Looked good so very disappointed.
So all that means booked profits for the website of £ 3,600. That makes taken website profits now £233,662.
Part of the reason for the sell off is the market is often pretty weak in September so I would like to have a bit more cash sitting there to perhaps pick up some bargains in time.
Elsewhere oil gamble Aminex is going well, up since I bought though it really needs to get over 30p. Also recent buy Walker Crips holds up
nicely given its big gains over the week. Everything else goes ok considering the weak markets today.Tuesday 5th September
My elderly mum had a mini stroke last week - I hadn't mentioned it before because strangely I don't want any sympathy! (So no need for you to e-mail with flowers)
She's recovered very well in hospital - she has a problem with one arm and her legs but she's getting physiotherapy every day which helps.
She was a bit ga ga at first (like believing her house had been demolished to make way for a hospital) but she's coming back now though as she says her memory is not as good as it was. It has been sad to see her deteriorate as she is a very independent woman and can't stand being 'looked after'.
If she does eventually (hopefully) go home we'll have to get some day help for her. The good news is she's reading the papers, listening to the radio and understands what's going on - so prognosis is good.
And I have to come to terms with the fact at 83 years old she might go suddenly. She's had a tough life in many ways but as a nurse she always looked after people and now it is her turn.
The Government health and safety ridiculous nonsense was really brought home to me: I can't give my mum flowers because....
'The pollen might upset
someone...'
For God's sake! It's time us apathetic people stood up to this disgrace of a government and said enough is enough. When this happens and you can't buy a cake from the WI because of heath and safety it's time to rebel.
What's worse - it's a new hospital and quite nice - but they've had to stop building because 'there is not enough money in the budget'.
This is when I feel angry that we pay Johnathan Ross £18 million - from our own taxes. What sort of society is it when that prat picks up money that could be spent finishing off what looks like a fine hospital? And what about all the useless penpushers and 'consultants' - let's sack all the useless suit wearers and bring in more nurses and pay them properly.
They are doing an amazing job with my mum and earning bugger all. They tell me there are so many bosses doing nothing it is unbelievable. Anyway enough ranting from me!
Back to the holiday: we were in an Italian resort and the only UK people there. I'm afraid the Italians looked down their noses at us and Christopher.
Their kids are all dressed in designer labels and are spotless. Meanwhile Christopher, as he should do as a child, got messy quite a lot and was wearing Mothercare and not Dolce Gabanna.
He knocked down some of the Italian kids sandcastles and generally upset them. But I don't care. I'd far rather my child got dirty in the sand and sea rather than looking clean all the time!
He had a great holiday and loved the beach.
There was also a great
carousel there that he loved. Strangely enough being Italy we had trouble getting decent food.
There was pizza... and pasta.. but nothing much else and when I got home I got straight into the kitchen for a massive plate of bacon and eggs!
I'm afraid the service was poor too: indeed the woman running the nearby cafe was soon known to us as 'bitchface'.
She took a dislike to us for some
reason. I ordered a cappuchino, paid and was then promptly ignored. This was apparently because I dared to sit down for a couple of seconds!
One of the highlights of the trip was us deciding to be adventurous and taking a train to the resort instead of a cab and it was well worth it. Not only for the money - train = 32 euros both ways, cab 300 euros! Christopher loved it and on the way back we had a whole compartment to ourselves and we could watch the countryside go by.
With perhaps more buying to come WCW looks to have tons more upside even given today's big rise - with 3 market makers it will prove volatile but I'll stick with it for more gains to come.
I bought one today which has to go down as very high risk but I report it here rather than on the high risk subscription e-mail because the stock is very liquid and also Isable.
Older readers may remember me buying this at 8p, 13p and 16p in the past, mainly making some decent money. So I suppose you call this a simple gamble.
As many of you know I love topping up the winners and topped up yesterday afternoon in Croda (CRDA) for
£20 a point at 495.
Target
550 stop 470.
Elsewhere, Vislink came off
yesterday because a director sold some options! I think those selling will be sorry! He probably wanted some cash for some reason, and why not cash in a few?
My 3 companies in the oil services are doing well today - Sondex, Hunting and Petrofac.
Sondex especially looks to be really breaking out nicely now.Monday 4th September
So where was I? Oh yes. In Starbucks at Gatwick Airport. Which is fine
unless your Mrs and infant are on the plane about to take off without you and
you have no money or cards and just a passport!
'Sorry,' said the Starbucks manager. 'No-one has handed in a jacket I'm afraid.'
A look at my watch showed it was now more than 5 minutes since I left the
plane and it could just leave at any second. Do I dash back as fast as I can and
depart on holiday with no cards and no cash or quickly re-trace our route via
the shops back to the plane in the hope the jacket was dropped en route?
Then something magical happened. I looked up to my right at the staircase
leading to the shops... And there was the jacket. Someone had picked it up and
balanced it on top of the staircase! Hardly believing my luck I rushed for it -
the cards and cash were all there!
I then ran for it (as much as flip flops can allow) without an awful lot
of hope the plane was still there but at least I might be able to get a flight
the next day..
Getting strange looks throughout the run back to the plane I breathlessly
arrived back at the final departure point and sadly I could see the man shaking
his head at me.
'I'm really sorry,' he said. 'But....'
I thought: what must Eliz be thinking?! Then a big shot of luck...
'Hang on a sec,' he said getting on the phone. A few seconds later: 'Run
for it.' he said. They are holding the plane for one more minute as they missed
a slot.'
I rushed and got onto the plane just as the door was closing with one very
relieved Mrs staring at me. 'Thank goodness,' she said. 'I was about to get
off.'
And thank goodness we were in business class and there were only 5 people
to glare at me as the captain announced: 'The missing passenger has at last
turned up.' (The at last emphasised).
Can you imagine having to bear the hate of all the economy section as
well? I wanted to get on the mike and announce that I hadn't been delayed
shopping or been stupid! So next time I'm on a plane held up by a late passenger
I am going to be forgiving!
The next edition will feature tales from the holiday including some
Italian ladies who felt my care of Christopher was not what it should be....
Significantly they give access through a SIPP to all funds that are not
normally available to non UK residents. I have however been turned down flat by
some other online trading and spreadbetting firms.
Thanks Roger, that is really helpful....
Annabel writes: Was very
interested to read the mail from Alan the expat who would like to set up an
online trading account whilst he's abroad. I have a friend who may be in a
similar position, ie. temporarily working (with residence/working permit)
abroad, but wishing to trade online.
I've had a brief search online for information, but must admit I don't
entirely understand what I'm looking for. Did you have any feedback on this
question from any of your readers? I would be very grateful for any information
you could share on this, accounts to apply for or query?!
By the way, I am new to the whole share dealing scene & currently reading
your enlightening book (what a godsend! And, how naive am I?!) & also enjoy your
website diary entries... including your 'mundane' life details that go some way
to prove the freedom you have created by having the wherewithall & guts to quit
the ratrace & take control! Well done you... and for leading the way!
Thanks Annabel - do any readers have any more helpful opinions on this matter?
Please write in!
Mick writes: Hope you had a
enjoyable well-deserved holiday in Italy! (Don't keep us in suspense like that
again. A day is fine but not the weekend! No doubt everyone is thinking that all
was ok in the end)
My small portfolio is starting to show profit after that big 'wobble' a
couple of months ago. I am taking your advice and sticking through the ups and
downs of share prices especially with good companies. It does require a lot of
patience and nerve but hopefully be worth it.
Share buy-back. I read this within the company Marchpole (MPH). What does
this mean? You note that directors are quite actively buying large chunks of
shares. Does it mean that we pi's have to sell when the big boys tell us! Is is
pretty obvious for a company to announce this kind of tactic!?
Hi Mick - share buybacks usually take place when a company reckons its
share price is undervalued by the market. Buybacks tend to keep the share price
buoyant though in my experience it doesn't do that much and really I think they
are a waste of time and the money would be better spent on the business.
As far as Marchpole is concerned I don't think any buybacks have taken
place yet. Looks like the directors are happier just buying up shares in MPH
which is an excellent sign that good news is on the way!
Excellent strong and bullish statements from the company which raised FY
profits to over £3m from £2.3m. The company is now undervalued on just this
basis. Now I reckon next full year could show £4-4.5m and the interims could
prove very strong.
Elsewhere some more brilliant rises for the portfolio. Star of the day is
Creston up another 6p as it heads
towards 200p.
Galliford Try has broken up today
with my usual sticking with what I think of strong companies working well here.
Also going well is Keller
up over 700p again and at least another 100p to come.
Cosalt too breaks up well and a
nice profit building together with that 6p dividend.
Vislink continues to do the
business with good rises on Friday and today.
Late on Friday Marchpole
announced two big director's buys which augers very well - even better the
shares are over the sticky 22.5p area. Profit-takers will come in at 25p and
30p.
My oil service sector shares
Petrofac, Sondex and
Hunting aren't doing much today
but I have little doubt they will soon be heading north again.
Croda consolidates well at 50p
higher! Very happy to carry on holding..Friday 1st September
We ended up in Starbucks waiting for the flight call and began to feel
relaxed at last. Christopher as usual enjoyed the foam and chocolate from the
top of the cappuchinos.
Suddenly Elizabeth noticed 'Last call' come up on the monitor so we
bustled everything together, grabbed Christopher and made a run for it.
As we were got to the door of the plane a woman came up and said to
Elizabeth: 'Is this your cardigan? I think you dropped it!'
It was hers - then I realised my jacket was not with us... didn't mind
about the jacket but I did mind that all the £500 holiday cash and my credit
card was inside its pocket!!
I dashed off and retraced my steps in the hope of seeing it. I got back to
the boarding area. 'Erm,' I said. 'I think I left my jacket in Starbucks - have
I got enough time to run back and get it?'
'The plane is due to leave in 5 minutes!' said the official. 'Up to you if
you think you can make it there and back - I can't hold the plane back for
long...'
So I ran fast (in flipflops) - I realised I looked a bit like a deranged
terrorist running red faced the wrong way.... hope I didn't give anyone a heart
attack!
I got to Starbucks - no jacket! I asked the staff: they hadn't seen it.
Now 6 minutes had passed - it would take me five more minutes to get back to the
plane. I realised all I had on me was a passport - no money at all.
I had fast Wi Fi access at the hotel which made it easy to trade - however
as I was on holiday I only traded if I thought it was really necessary. And with
the portfolio booming I didn't really need to - however a little trading to
report.
The spectacular statement from Hunting made me look around the oil
services sector for similar ones - like Hunting and Sondex because this sector
is/will be red hot and has been overlooked.
I came across Petrofac (PFC)
and yesterday bought on a spreadbet for
£30 a point at 311. Target
400 stop
280. This has a very similar
profile to Hunting and Sondex and is a must buy for me. Tons of upside from all
three companies to come.
The statement from Hunting (HTG)
yesterday was so good I also topped up right away with a spreadbet of
£20 at
427. Target
550 stop
380. HTG should be worth at least
550.
Disappointing statement from
Costain and I sold immediately as I always do whenever doubts however
'technical' begin to be raised. I have loved Costain in the past, after all I've
made profits of more than £30,000 by buying all the way from 12p up to the
current area.
Where to start with all the brilliant gains? Let's kick off with
Vislink where as many of you
might know I hold a massive position of something like £50,000 worth of stock.
The statement was excellent and Vislink continues to look undervalued
below 100p. There was bound to be profit taking on results day - I ignored that
and stayed put and the shares are climbing again today. A re-rating is due!
Croda returned from
suspension today and well, er.. welcome back. My buy at 400p now looks rather
good with return from suspension pushing 500p! The reverse takeover makes the
company much more valuable and I have no intention of taking profits yet!
A huge director's buy at Marchpole
reported this morning - so big that it is fairly obvious some good news is on
the horizon and I am now very pleased I have built up a huge wodge of these
shares at 13p, 16p and 18p!
Burren has put on a fine
performance too while I've been away. As have the chips
Wolfson and
CSR which I continue to hold
ignoring the day traders and their little games! Also soaring for the portfolio
are Hikma and
Victrex from the drugs
department.
The two buys I made just before I left -
MTL Instruments and
Carrs Milling - have both seem
tremendous rises - especially Carrs which looks like it is being re-rated ahead
of next results.
Britvic has bubbled along
nicely even without any new mentions of a possible bid. So what can I say about
the portfolio except Yippeeee!! Wednesday 23rd August
Can't count the times they're tried to rip us off abroad with the cabs but we never fall for it - Mrs NT is always determined to get the right price!
The idea is really it's a Christopher hol and he can have fun playing in the sand and sea. Not a bad time to bugger off really with the weather here not so great but it's great out there.
So just a 5am airport start to endure (will I have to taste Christopher's milk... urrhhgghh) long queues and the security checks. Wonder if I look dodgy enough for them to stop me?
So the next update won't now be until next Friday (unbelievably September 1st)! I know some of you will miss the ramblings but have no fear I will be back!
I'm taking the laptop so I can keep up to date with what is going on (especially Vislink results!) and I'll be able to deal if I need to.
I'm taking a teletubbies DVD that we can play on the laptop if Christopher starts teething - always takes his mind off the pain....
I'll try and clear as many e-mails as I can before we leave otherwise I'll be answering when I get back.
Ian writes: Ref your
comments about a potential class action against Interserve, I think you'll find it's already being considered by former shareholders of Maclellan.
Good luck to 'em, I say. I was a shareholder in both MLG and IRV already, so opted to take all IRV shares in the recent takeover
- Doh! there goes all the
profit!
Yes Ian, the whole thing is unbelievable, great if shareholders can sue!
Richard writes: Robbie I was wondering if you could explain in layman terms what analysts mean when they label a share as being Overweight or underweight
Well first Richard so many of these analysts appear to write complete crap and have their own agenda which mainly seems to be trying to get shares to move the way they want then to move!
I think they mean in a balanced portfolio underweight would be hold a smaller amount than your average and overweight more than your average investment. However the truth is more like underweight = sell and overweight = hold!
Older readers will remember I made a nice few pounds out of this buying at around 300 and selling in the mid 500s a while back.
The shares have re-entered my radar in the last couple of days as some buying has started to come in, mostly on Plusmarkets.
On face value the shares look very undervalued again with the market cap looking too low for the sort of profits it is achieving. However the last statement did contain one word I don't approve:
challenging.
As I signalled, I had to buy more
Keller (KLR). I was really hoping they would drift down a little on profit taking but it didn't happen so I ended up topping up on my original holding (611p) with a £20
spreadbet on Monday afternoon at 651.
Target 800, stop
602.
They are nearly up at 700
already today with more good buying coming in.
I sold Scarborough today at
53p for a loss of £522.
It was a close call but it
appears they could go a bit lower before going up again so I offloaded with the thought of trying to buy back in the late 40's if possible.
Elsewhere it's been an excellent couple of days
- great rises for Keller
already mentioned. Vislink is
having a great run pre-results and plenty of big buyers out there.
Recent buy MTL Instruments
also lifting nicely pre-results with nice buying coming in.
Cosalt too is shifting up (and there's the nice 6p dividend banked)
Umbro looks like it's about to go a few more points higher. Sondex too is creeping up as are Creston and Celsis.So all in all I leave for holiday a happy bunny!Monday 21st August
Any of you registered for VAT? What a bloody pain it is to be a tax
collector which is in what effect we are doing. One handy tip - register online
- not only can you file online which makes it easier - you get an extra week to
pay!
I've got to do it before I go on holiday and I have got to stop
procrastinating. Also have got to get my tax done too - still it's worth being
self-employed even with the tax hassle.
My friend in Switzerland, top trader Laurent has mailed me about
Interserve - he is one of many like me caught out by the disgraceful sudden fraud
statement.
Laurent says: let's sue them, or the auditors KPMG. I am sure with all
your readers we would have a good number for a class action suit. I am exploring
this especially as I bought mine via a US broker, so I can maybe claim
jurisdiction over there. Perhaps we will see if the directors of Interserve get
hauled off in chains to the US to face trial there??? if you or any of your
readers are interested let me know.
Trouble with me is half my stake was via a spreadbet so I guess I didn't
really 'own' the shares! Laurent has also passed on a Telegraph report which
says some investors have already contacted a top law firm to see whether they
can file a claim. So there may be something out of it for us conned investors,
well you never know.
Craig agreed - anyone buying Interserve had better be careful I reckon..
It looks like Keller will grow fast by acquisition and the current price
is way too low - I am currently hoping for a bit of a dip in order to buy some
more. And look at that lovely chart!
Talking of lovely charts, Vislink
continues to rise ahead of results and is another cracking company with tons of
upside potential and bid potential thrown in for nothing. More big buys going in
- a super share.
My last buy MTL Instruments
is rising well with buyers coming in ahead of what I suspect will be brilliant
results. Feeling tempted to top up as a rise to 500 looks a good thing.
Telecom Plus is up nearly
40% since I bought on the low - question is whether it'll get through the 150p
mark before it announces new packages in September.
Umbro has been creeping up on the
rails and looks set to get back to the 160 area.
Other risers today are Marchpole
(decent acquisition announced today),
Hunting, Burren and
Charter all giving the portfolio
another good lift to make it a decent August.
Cosalt is on the rise again - in
effect though it's not a lot higher since I bought I have also got a 6p dividend
to come. Wednesday 16th August
Just the last stage of teething - nothing to worry about but for him it's like having really bad toothache. Gradually he nodded off and at 6.15am I managed to turn it off and got some sleep. The joys of parenthood eh - it's all worth it for the welcome I get when I come home.
Those nasty front teeth are coming through and again last night the poor chap was up for a lot of the night as were me and Mrs NT. Still it is all character building.. isn't it?
Some mails regarding Interserve:
Frank writes: Just read about your misfortune with IRV, so just a brief line to extend my sincere sorrow that you along with 1000's of other investors have had to pay a substantial price. As a trader there is simply no way to legislate for this type of criminal activity.
Whilst I was unaffected with no interest in IRV, as a self confessed grumpy old man at least on this particular subject, I could readily add additional comments to you own, but what's the point, besides you pretty much nailed it yourself.
Lastly Robbie, thought your comments regarding a swift exit, lessons to be learnt and completely dismissing the company for future trading opportunities were again right on the mark and represented excellent advise. But as one of your many readers we have come to expect nothing less.
Frank thanks for those comments.
Akila writes: I am very sorry for your big loss, and I understand your feelings. Shoot the bastards!!
That shows how vulnerable the investors are.
However, one thing I don't understand is, if the company would have gone bust, how you would have been liable for £12,000.
Didn't you have a stop loss?
Hi Akila - my info from a top trader is that if a company goes bust a stop loss with a spreadfirm will NOT protect you and you are liable for the lot. If anyone feels this info is wrong do write in and put me right.
It looks to me as if sentiment has switched on this stock and it's reached the bottom for the time being and there's an excellent chance of a 30 or 40 point bounce.
So this time I added a spreadbet yesterday for £30 at 261.
Target
295, stop 245.
There is some crazy story
doing the rounds of a bid at 330 - don't really believe that one as the head cheese there is pretty ambitious.
The second buy is another top up in Celsis (CEL) and I bought 2,500 shares yesterday at 164.4p
- target
190 stop 150.
That follows my buy of last
month at 161 or so.
The shares are looking strong and if you look at the ADVFN trades you may think there is nothing doing whereas more trades - including mine - are being dealt via Plusmarkets - an alternative dealing platform to the LSE.
Many reasons for liking this one which looks well and truly undervalued below around 200p. It's in the process of integrating another company and looks likely to grow further.
Institutions appear to be getting more involved and I see Fidelity have recently added more than 200,000 shares and appear to be increasing their stake from time to time. Barclays are the biggest shareholder with nearly 6% of the shares. I feel pretty confident of an excellent return given time.
The short is WPP and I
shorted this morning at 634p for
£10.
Target
580 stop 650.
The advertising industry is
not a happy one right now and WPP has already admitted to problems. I can't see why anyone would be holding this one and it looks set for a decline.
A really excellent couple of days of the portfolio with plenty of shares moving higher despite a weaker FTSE.
Keller is up after a top broker upped its target to 685p after Keller announced it is buying an Australian company and looks determined to grow.
Telecom Plus has shot through the previously sticky 125 area and has surging today past 130 which opens up 150 - it's set to announce new phone and broadband packages on September 17th.
A good buyer of Creston
this morning is helping the price along with a Telegraph tip.
Cosalt and Marchpole are both down because they have gone ex dividend.
Wincanton is on a roll
today and if it can break that 328 area, that looks good enough for it to hit my 350 target area. My old pal Fenner has been creeping up nicely in recent days, it's taken some patience to stick with it but looks like I'll be rewarded.
Wolfson is looking strong and trying to break up through the late 460s which if it can will look extremely bullish! Buyers seem to be coming back into Sondex which looks set for one of its sudden lunges upwards... well, here's hoping anyhow!Monday 14th August
If people within a company have got together to lie as an investor there's nothing you can do about it. Usually I can spot something odd by spotting a lot of selling - there was no signal really in this case and there was even some good buying recently.
My view is if I'm holding a company where 'irregularities' or fraud are mentioned I get the hell out fast for whatever loss it is.
So thanks very much to the company that just robbed me blind - Interserve - I took a loss of £1,200 at 305.5p on my shares and £2,730 at 306 on my spreadbet.
Well, actually maybe there is a lesson to be learned. If you have spreadbet exposure to a share that goes bust, you're liable for a lot more than you think. Say Interserve had gone bust this morning - I would have been liable for £12,000!
The other point to make is I never ever re-enter or 'try and get my money back' once ditching a share like this. Cut the loss and move on. I've taken it off my screen and will never go back. The only other thing I can think of to say about this start to the week is:
'Arrrrrrrghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh'!
Elsewhere a couple of one million buys have gone into Marchpole which looks promising.
Maybe and probably institutional buying.
Creston is on the rise
mainly I believe from a tip in The Telegraph which I haven't seen but one of my bulletin board contributors has! Should really be over 200p this one. Recent buy Scarborough Minerals is edging up.
Galliford Try after doing not much for a while looks more interesting today - a break up though the 117 area will look promising and this one can move quite rapidly when in the mood.
Gyrus looks good and strong today and Telecom Plus is trying
to inch up and pass that sticky 125 area. The Admiral short still looks, er admirable... with nice profits which are getting tempting to take. Otherwise it's fairly quietish midsummer stuff with less volumes and bigger spreads than normal. Friday 11th August
What's happened to John Prescott? Thought he was supposed to be running
the country yet nowhere to be seen during the current terrorist crisis.
How humiliating it must be for him not to be trusted to front the
Government's response and for his own esteem in all seriousness he ought to
stand down - he would really go up a lot in my estimation and a lot of other
people's if he did.
Daniel (a former
market-maker) writes: Have been working towards your whole ethos for a while now
(having not read your book) but reading your book (haven't even finished it
yet!) has given me that extra impetus to keep going and not get stuck in a rut!
You've certainly earned your £1.67 from me!
In answer to Mike's email: Anyway I have been watching Marchpole (MPH) and
noticed that today quite a few sells, slight price rise.
Daniel writes: I worked as an MM for a while and the answer to this is
yes. MM's work by both taking calls from Brokers and using an automated trading
system.
Thanks for all that Daniel - good to get the perspective of someone who
used to be a market maker and that made for an interesting read !
Obviously when terrorism comes into the headlines share prices go down but
often recover quickly and these days buying after a fall caused by some kind of
terrorism link usually pays off.
I was still feeling sick yesterday and I just didn't play but I certainly
didn't sell anything! In fact the currently pretty defensive portfolio stood up
rather well anyway.
However the only word that can sum up these holiday markets is: YAWN! It
really hardly seems worth bothering to buy much and even if I hadn't been
feeling poorly I doubt I'd have bought anything.
The portfolio has remained nicely calm during all the crisis and there is
nothing causing me alarm - or deep joy!!
Telecom Plus was tipped by the Investors Chronicle today which maybe
should be causing me some alarm but it brings a few new investors on board and
the shares doing nicely.
Cosalt,
Havelock,
Charter,
Burren,
Wincanton,
Marchpole and
Wolfson are all tentatively up a
bit but there's no big conviction. Everything else just sits there! So while I'm
not losing money neither am I making much!Wednesday 09th August
I think we're just about through the worst of it now, thank goodness.
There's nothing worse than feeling bad is there? Bit like watching a share you own tank but you can't sell because you're in a dodgy internet cafe abroad and the connection isn't working!
Can't wait for this week's Dragon's Den tomorrow
(Thursday) should be
another cracker.
As I warned a few weeks ago Xmas is coming even earlier this year - Harrods has now opened its Xmas floor - one month earlier than last year - and so has Selfridges!
So go on then you saddoes who buy Xmas stuff in August - get shopping! I think there should be a law preventing the sale of Xmas goods and definitely the playing of Xmas music till December 1st.
But really I feel it's best to keep trading the market and not try and guess where it's going supported by guru(s) of your choice.
But sadly for me I've been feeling bad/trying to keep the family afloat as we've all been sick that the best I've managed is to keep an eye on things. So no trades to report.
And there's not an awful lot to report in a dull week with small volumes.
Some a bit up, some a bit down but nothing significant.
This week's buy Scarborough
Minerals has been going nicely with plenty of buying coming in following the lead of the director. It's consolidating today hopefully ahead of some more rises. Other recent buy Cosalt
has been up and down a bit but is still nicely higher and will shortly go ex dividend for 6p or so.
Both oils Dragon and
Burren look sturdy with some decent volume in Dragon in recent days.
Galliford is pressing on again as is Hunting.
Charter is on the verge of a breakout and the Admiral short
has been going well though it's a short-term trade only and I will close out if it starts to climb...Otherwise it's pretty boring out there so if you're on holiday it was certainly well timed!Monday 07th August
Friday afternoon both Christopher and I were feeling sick and we've both
been under the weather all weekend and today.
Actually today it's developed more for me into a headache and sore throat.
Christopher's been sick every day poor chap and doing a lot of crying - he's
either got what I've got or more likely his last few teeth are coming through.
You have to laugh at the idiots who run ITV. With failing audiences,
instead of putting money into original and exciting new shows and dramas what is
their big idea? Yup, you guessed it: put in a massive bid to buy up Big Brother
after its contract expires with Ch4 next year..
Brilliant! Buy up a format that has already passed its peak and in two
years will be very much on the slide given it's already running out of ideas. If
I was Channel 4 I would be delighted to run it for one more year then let ITV
have it!
Here's Frank with views on
Britvic and the market in general: Thought I'd drop a few lines your way after
checking the chart of BVIC purely after reading your recent intriguing comments.
The chart is most unusual but promising - after a large gap down 1.3.06 it
has been basing which is pretty obvious. However what caught my eye is the
evidence of huge institutional buying on 25.5.06 when BVIC reported.
Average daily volume is 4.6m, that day was 46m - 10 times the average
which can only be the institutions. Further more it gapped down presumably due
to a poor report, from 204p down to 185p, it declined further to 171p when the
buying started and closed at 223p which was jolly impressive.
After slowly trading sideways / downwards, again on the 21.7.06 the buyer
showed their hand at 188p albeit with only 10m shares bought this time,
producing a WRB closing at 205p engulfing many prior bars in the process.
The current price is 213p and since the WRB of 21.7.06 the price has not
dropped more than 20% into the top of that WRB, which in itself is bullish, and
is now trading above its Rising 20ma
I interpret all the above as bullish and the institutions expecting future
higher prices, and with a PRETTY VERA above to 273p (the initial gap down
1.3.06) I shall be looking for an entry myself especially if it can move above
244p.
Whilst I shall be watching it in anticipation of an upmove, I currently
feel a little bearish towards the broad market, and therefore more disposed to
play a short bias. (I notice your short on ADM but will wait for it to
demonstrate a little more weakness) However I feel the recent BOE rate hike,
provides a reasonably safe short position in the House Building Sector
Thanks for those comments Frank, (even though I haven't a clue what you're on
about with pretty Vera's)
However I thought I should get a bit of exposure to the small company
mining/minerals area but it's always been difficult as all the companies are AIM
listed and I put everything into Isa's to avoid tax.
But a large director buy - he bought a massive 280,000 shares - drew my
attention to Scarborough Mineral (SCRB)
- a fully listed company that was launched in April this year by the merger of
three companies and a £22million share offering taken up by 20 institutions.
It invests in various mining companies and has a shareholding in Desire
Petroleum. It was floated at around 80p in April and has had a torrid time since
then heading south to below 50p.
So though risky I bought 12,000
shares at 56.85p. Target
75, stop
47. They have gone one point
higher since I bought already and it looks like some pretty decent buying is
following the director's lead. There's no reason not to hold the odd risky
one inside an ISA as long as it's not for too much I think.
Although markets are a bit weak today most of my lot are in a summer
stupor and unchanged which I'll settle for happily with a lot of stuff down.
Friday's buy Cosalt goes
well, a few pence higher than bought (though some profit takers this morning)
and it goes ex dividend for 6p or so next week. As I remarked before a nice safe
hold.
Wincanton has been looking
rather good the last few days and given a fair market breeze could go very well
indeed. Nice confirmed break over 320 looks excellent.
Despite king of the shorters Simon Cawkwell announcing again he is short
of a lot of Britvic shares, they
are holding up well - which is rather good news especially as nearly 6% of
shares are being shorted. If it starts to rise from here and shorters panic and
clear out there will be a nice rise - and of course a bid could easily be on the
cards.,
Burren and
Dragon are even up slightly!
Everything else is simply stable so not a lot of movement to report which as I
said on a down day is just dandy! Friday 04th August
As politicians say it means I can spend more time with my family...And as
a good number of readers are away on holidays now I think it's a pretty fair
compromise...
At last - something good is back on the TV - Dragon's Den was as usual
brilliant in every way last night - I think maybe even better than The
Apprentice..
The egg idea was pretty darned good but you had to feel sorry for the
boffin who forgot due to nerves to make sure the thermostat was in the right
place..
The toilet seat cover had me in stitches - definitely a women's thing
though - I can't imagine any bloke bothering to cover a toilet seat although it
was interesting to learn that it was mucky females whose toilets turn into a...
er s*** state, and not the blokes!
Reader Jim has this early
Xmas sighting from his paper in Scotland - here is a clip:
Some camped out from as early as 1.30am.The hotel doors opened at 6am for
those who queued in advance. They were handed tickets which guaranteed them a
place in the queue at 9am.
By 8am, an hour before booking officially started, 65 numbered tickets had
already been picked up. One city mum had been waiting since 5.30am to make sure
her work had the best Christmas party.'
Thanks Jim! It must be one hell of a hotel - any other Xmas sightings welcome!
Mike writes: Although I am
still in the learning process I find your advice through website/email
invaluable. Managed to make some money a few months ago but the big stock market
'wobble' soon wiped that out only because I started to panic as I saw nothing
but red figures! Had I kept, would be ok now.
Anyway I have been watching Marchpole (MPH) and noticed that today quite a
few sells, slight price rise. Recently the price dropped gradually then a
biggish buyer came in only for the price to rise again. Do market makers keep
some of the shares on sales and purchases only to shift to the right buyer or is
it just market conditions?
I understand there to must be a buyer for every purchaser and vice versa
but some of these price shifts can be quite horrendous. Your last example Burren
720 now 925 highlights this, nice you caught it when you did though! (WLF is
another example, recently peaked at 550 and bottomed at 385). I can see why some
pi's are fed up as one person mentioned on a bulletin board that the 'buy and
hold' days are long gone!
Hi Mike. Little doubt it's turned into a trader's market over the last few
weeks. I'm not sure I agree buy and hold is dead. It's a question of when you
buy to get a good price and I still think it's worth buying sometimes on very
bad days which is how I got Burren so low.
As to working out what the market makers are up to it's a nightmare and
remember the buys and sells you see may not necessarily be what they appear -
buys could be sells and sells could be buys..
Anyway, I have bought something new - a company called
Cosalt (CSLT). I bought
1,500 shares this morning at
303.8p. Target
345, stop
270.
The downside first - with a market cap of £40m there is quite a lot taken
as read that the next set of results will be good but I think they may beat
expectations.
However I quite like the look of their businesses which include what is
really hot again which is holiday parks and caravanning.
They also provide safety and protection clothing and equipment for
industry and schoolwear too - really all good sound business with what should be
decent margins.
So one I am going to tuckaway for a while - the bonus here is an
absolutely massive dividend of more than 6%! Anyone holding the day before the
ex dividend date - August 15th - will get a nice 6p interim dividend which is
paid in September. So I reckon I could hold these for a year, get 20-30% capital
increase, a 6% dividend and sleep at night.
I also have taken out a new short in my old shorting fave
Admiral (ADM) going in to short
yesterday for £20 a point at
691. Target
640, stop
710.
Although Admiral's share price long-term just keeps rising, it was bound
to struggle to get over 700 and I think profit takers will take it down. I don't
intend to be in for that long - maybe a couple of weeks to bag what could be a
decent shorting profit!
Britvic is seeing more
heavy buying which has pretty much convinced me something is up here and will be
announced very soon.
An excellent statement from
Creston - everything is on track and I still believe it's a matter of
patience to get the true rewards from this one - I reckon there's a good 20-30%
to come this winter.
Sondex looks good as it
holds above the 300p level - glad I did the top up!
Hunting in the same sector sits
just under 400, a touch afraid to go through...
The chips are going very nicely with both
Wolfson and
CSR bolting up - both should fare
well this winter though obviously they are favourites with day traders but
investors like me can ignore the volatility and stay put.
Anything to do with building went down a bit yesterday because of the
interest rate rise but I am still happy holding
Galliford,
Keller,
Mouchel and
Costain. A smart move would
probably have been to pick these 3 excellent companies up on the cheap!
Some shares have been quiet for a while as tends to happen in August when
no news is released but as usual happy to be patient with my lot of extremely
good and undervalued companies!!Wednesday 02nd August
You know I was moaning about there being nothing on TV except for complete
and utter crap! Well, thanks to all of those who mailed me regarding the return
of Dragon's Den tomorrow night (Thursday).
Hurrah! At last something to watch - they've got rid of two of the old
dragons (presume one is Rachael after the Red Letter Days debacle).
Anyway don't miss it - I'll be chatting about it on Friday (remember I'm
having a lazy August and not updating Tuesdays and Thursdays)
Q Magazine has come up with a top list of cheesy tunes that people like
with ELO top of the list. I used to have a friend who used to play Mr Blue Sky
at top volume when you got in his car.
Star Trek celebrates its 40th year today - you can't beat the original
series can you, and especially The Trouble With Tribbles which is my favourite -
looking forwards to Christopher watching that one.
But Star Trek meant many thousands of pounds to me between 1996 and 2001
where I voiced a Star Trek premium rate line alongside my Buffy line. Can't say
I miss doing them though.
Hi Doug. Yes, shares are reacting to events such as say how the Dow
finished the night before, a broker up or downgrade, results, etc.
For the top shares there is an auction for ten minutes before the opening
each day where the big players battle it out and the opening price is decided.
For the smaller shares the market-makers decide on the opening - for
example if the share has been tipped over the weekend they would mark it up pre
open.
Sunil writes: Just happened
to be looking at your book in WH Smiths and glancing at your website. I wondered
if you every traded Options? UK or US? Do you have an opinion about them or
offer any comments?
Hi Sunil: I did go on a traded options course in 1998 when they were quite
popular but with the advent of spreadbetting and CFD's I don't really see much
point as they are more complex to understand and being on the lazy side, I can't
be bothered with them! They are also subject to capital gains tax which makes
spread betting and trading shares in ISA's more appealing to me!
I topped up in Sondex (SDX)
this morning and bought a further 2,000
shares at 306p - target
350, stop
270. As I said in the last
update any close above 300p would look bullish and there were some heavy buying
all the way up to 325p yesterday.
And I remember buying it at 130p when it floated on the markets - which
I'd bought a few hundred grand and just kept holding. There is also a high risk
buy to report which goes out today on the subscription e-mail.
I took profits of £777 by
selling Erinaceous yesterday at
288.67. No reason other than it
simply isn't budging over 292! Still a nice trade - it had nearly hit the target
price.
It's been an excellent couple of days in the market. The oils are really
flying and I'm very glad now I picked up those
Burren shares at 720 on that bad
day when the market was sinking. Hunting
has ratched up a 50p rise since I was nearly thinking of selling!
CSR and
Wolfson are both going well -
wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of profit taking in WLF before it moves up
again and if there is I shall buy more!
Britvic.. hmm wonder
whether that bid is coming - looks like the market still thinks so for now.
Simply a waiting game for Vislink!
Only a matter of time I reckon before it shoots higher where it belongs..I'll be
back on Friday..Monday 31st July
So instead of daily updates, updates will be on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays and I'm going to shut down completely for two weeks or so towards the end of the month. But full service will be resumed in early September! I'm sure you will all understand why and won't be too upset with me.
So the next update will be on Wednesday lunchtime - any trades made between Monday afternoon and Wednesday morning will be reported then.
Another pleasant summer weekend - we feel we're making the most of it this year. With the mother in law here for a few days to help out with Christopher we escaped to a nice little hotel in the heart of London..
We cycled there and back with a few stops at Starbucks, an ice cream parlour, Selfridges with the Mrs hardly spending anything thanks to the Rebecca Ash book!
We enjoyed a good meal and hearty breakfast..
Christopher was glad to see
us and was as busy as he always is. Never stops for a second!
Saw the last ever Top of the Pops. A bit sad though it was time for it to go. Weirdly the older presenters were better at presenting than the newer ones, weren't they, and Jimmy Saville looks good for 79!
The Government continues to spend all its time trying to find more ways to tax us. They're looking at tucking away pictures of every single house and charging us more the moment we try and improve anything.
Anyway good old John Prescott is here to look after us all during the Summer. Don't get in his way though if you don't want a punch on the nose.
Here is Mrs NT's review as promised of The New Spend Less Revolution' - 365 tips for a better quality of life while actually spending less'. By Rebecca Ash.
The book is about how you can live on less, spend less and yet be far richer and happier for it. I have not edited Elizabeth's review in any way..
My first reaction was 'I read lots of these kind of books in the 90s as a young teacher struggling to pay a mortgage and buy new clothes for all the interesting dates I was having. It will tell me to save the pennies, cut out take away coffees and take my lunch into work'.
This book, I assumed, wouldn't be for me, at this point in my life. But I was wrong. (By the way, that's Robbie's favourite sentence when spoken by me).
Ash assumes her reader is intelligent and, refreshingly for this type of book, not broke. She uses interesting examples and thought-provoking quotations.
Thanks Simon - very much looking forwards to seeing something decent on TV at last - I wonder if Rachael has gone after the collapse of Red Letter Days.
Richie writes: Hope you don't mind me calling you by your first name. I live in Knebworth, Hertfordshire. And for many years I have thought about buying and selling shares, I am married with grown up children and my wife and I are in full time employment, luckily for me, I was in Stevenage on the purpose of buying a new book and low and behold I found yours, although I have not read all of it yet, its brill.
Hi Richie... Well done you are doing the exact right thing to start.
Suggest you put the money into an ISA (you can put in up to 7k a year) - then that money is segregated from your current account and you can't lose more than you put in.
All brokers do ISAs - you can buy or sell any shares in there except most AIM. If you don't want to do an ISA, you can still set up an account, put in some money and you still can't lose more than you put up. Just make sure it is money you can afford to lose...
This one has confused me for a while because it has still looked fundamentally excellent but not moved higher. But the trading going on in it today makes me believe there is some decent news on the horizon.
The key figures to watch for with IRV are 385 and 397 - a breakthrough these figures will mean some big rises on the way, if it can't break though it could fallback again.
One more buy today but that's an extremely high risk/entertainment purposes one fo the high risk sipp and that'll be on the e-mail for subscribers today.
Considering the FTSE is down my excellent run continues! My buy of Havelock Europa late last week was just in time! Some heavy buyers have come in this morning with some very chunky buying.
And plenty of others going extremely well today too. The oils Burren and Dragon are both climbing again very well. There's little doubt both have been undervalued for a while.
Keller Group has gone well since I bought recently - shame the spread sometimes widens (the problem of SETS/MM), Hunting carries on its
excellent run as it tries to climb back to 400 - and to think I was thinking of selling it last week - what was I thinking of?
The chips CSR and
Wolfson which I continued to hold during all that volatility are starting to bring home the money now with some excellent gains so far today. Sondex is starting to get near to an attack on the 300 level which would open up 330 again. Good chance of getting there.
And good old Vislink which
is easily worth near 100p continues to attract good buyers with some still paying over the odds for good chunks of shares. This one could be a very big winner - more so than most investors realise.Friday 28th July
There's a sadistic Cox out on the river with a rowing crew at the moment.
'Shut the f*** up!' he is screaming (I'm sure they can hear him a few miles down
the river)
'You shouldn't have any breath to say anything... Keep rowing!'
Glad he's not my boss, scary fella. Maybe he's just in a bad mood because he
bought the wrong kind of share yesterday.
We had some spectacular thunderstorms last night - got some great views,
isn't nature wonderful? (Unless you happen to get hit by lightening)
You know I've been moaning about what crap there is on TV.. no wonder ITV
has hardly got an audience left and audiences across the board are falling.
But I've noticed BBC4 has a few good thought-provoking shows and one show
in particular you may have missed that is hilarious called 'Screen Wipe' with
Charlie Brooker who writes critical pieces on TV for The Guardian..
He has a real good go at crap TV but in a very funny way - last night's
had me chortling all the way though - it's repeated tonight (Friday) on BBC4 at
around 10.30 or 11pm - don't miss!
Us parents are having a night away this weekend as the mother in law is
down for the weekend to look after the lovely Christopher. We're off to a nice
hotel somewhere in London and a good old relax....
John Prescott is now officially in charge of us! God help us all! Let's
just hope he keeps the office door closed because the thought of him..er... with
the secretary..... just doesn't bear thinking about does it?
However I decided to buy some yesterday afternoon instead of waiting for
September. I am convinced I'm going to make a good profit on these and the ones
currently losing.
Why was my hand forced? Because the FD bought 20,000 shares and this news
brought buyers out of the woodwork, including myself and there ended up being
some quite good buying.
I ended up buying 8,000
shares in HVE at
141.43 Target
170, stop
128. Sadly I missed the initial
rise from 137 but never mind. HVE is a sound stock which I know very well as I
have made a lot on it in the past - my best buying at 95 and selling at 120.
While it may well go quiet again when it moves it MOVES and therefore I
will be very patient with them and enjoy taking eventual profits probably in
November at 170! Well, that's my plan! 135 looks like a great bottom for the
share and it's unlikely it'll go under that.
I also took profits on my Trinity
Mirror short yesterday afternoon buying back at
440 to take a profit of
£320. Not sure why but it is more
satisfying making money on shorts!
Elsewhere plenty in the portfolio going well again.
Charter is on a good roll. The
oils are going very nicely today with
Burren looking to get past the 850 area and
Dragon cruising up over 170p.
Nice rise for Vislink
yesterday afternoon and it should see some good gains over August.
Keller consolidates well at a
higher level as does Celsis.
Britvic is trying to decide
whether a bid is on or not but it looks positive.Thursday 27th July
We'll just have to wait till Handy Andy can fit us in next Thursday. If
you're looking to set up a new business, just employ loads of handymen... they
are in big demand!
Starbuck is going to make a few bucks out of me in the next few days while
the coffee machine is out of action. Had two there this morning. But you have to
work hard to get the coffee you want..
Considering coffee is what they do how come it's always flipping cold? I
always have to go up and suggest coffee is nicer if it's hot. (You can tell the
assistant is thinking about me: 'The b***** c*****')
I drink a 'short dry'. That's a kind of cappuchino but with not so much
milk so you can taste the coffee. Also Starbucks doesn't advertise 'shorts'
which is a small coffee. Probably because it's a lot cheaper. Ask for one
instead of a 'tall' and see how much you save over a year!
The profit on coffee is amazing - when I owned the cafe it always
surprised me to see the same people every day spending a fiver a day on it
sometimes. I guess we were selling a kind of drug.
As the book I'm banging on about this week says, if you are a regular
coffee drinker you could save nearly 2 grand by kicking the habit!
Talking of saving, British Gas has announced today prices for gas and elec
are going up more than 10%. If you are with British Gas it is time to switch!
Dear Editor
Well that's what I think Rob, I'm sure you do too.
Alan, I agree very much! I had plenty of correspondence with the editor of
Shares Magazine on this. All publications should publish proper buying and
selling prices - of course they don't because performance is so greatly enhanced
by publishing prices that readers could not possibly buy or sell at!
I doubt your letter will make any difference as there is no incentive for
these publications to put the real prices. And it is easy for them to get these
prices.
I still hold BNH in my sipp though and I would imagine the share price
could fall further while Barclays continue with the forced selling. So then I
will pick up some more for my Sipp even though I can't have them in my ISa.
Well, anyway I guess I have to close out the website position at the
forced 176 price for a profit of £120
. Can't think of anything else to say about this except 'Grrrrr....'
I made a new buy today. It was a bit of a toss up as to whether to list
the buy here and put it on the website list or put it down as a high risk one
for e-mail subscribers.
I have just about decided this buy will go to those on the e-mail list
alone because it IS quite high risk given there are only 3 market makers though
it is allowable in ISAs. So those of you on the list will get it today and I
added some for my high-risk sipp too.
I'm having a very good run. This week's buy
Keller is doing brilliantly,
already 20 points higher than when I bought it. Much more to come.
Burren is having an
excellent run and it's undervalued below 900p. My chips
Wolfson and
CSR are going great in the
aftermath of results - they should have a really good end of year.
After being worried about it last week
Hunting has shot higher by more
than 25 points. Recent buy Celsis
is also going very strongly - this one should really be much higher and I don't
think it will be long before it gets into the 180s.
The only disappointment at the moment is
Scott Wilson. However I will
continue to be patient with it. Vislink
consolidates before what I believe will soon be a sharp move higher. Some
interesting buying coming into Telecom
Plus - its new packages will be announced on September 17th.Past Commentaries
Wednesday 19th April to Wednesday 26th July
Monday 20th February to Thursday 12th April 2006
Thursday 12th January to Friday 17th February 2006
Tuesday 18th November to Wendesday 11th January 2006
Wendesday 24th August to Monday 17th October
Wednesday 20th July 2005 to Tuesday 23rd August 2005
Friday 20th May 2005 to Monday 18th July 2005
Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005
Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December
Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004
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