A nice quote to start this update: 'Life is too short to wake up in the morning with regrets. So love the people who treat you right, forget about the ones who don't and believe that everything happens for a reason.
If you get a chance, take it. If it
changes your life, let it. Nobody said it would be easy, they just promised it
would be worth it!" - Anonymous. Sometimes things just don't work out whether
it's shares or just life generally!
We had a babysitter for Saturday night so thought we'd do the ribshack and
a movie. Sounds like a good plan...But things conspired against us! I booked the
cinema for 9pm but rang the restaurant too late - they only had a table left at
9pm and no earlier. Oh well, we thought we'll park somewhere near the cinema and
find a restaurant around there.
Tried to transfer to another movie but
all that was left was a pile of crap (Smoking Aces). So we gave up, went to the
cashpoint where the Mrs withdrew some money to pay the babysitter.
Mail from John: Whenever the figures for any proposed building work
in the NHS got over a few thousands in the Gerry Robinson show, then it had to
be referred to 'Europe'? Fat chance of anything being done in less than 12
months!
We recently sold all our portfolio at 67% growth as our
investment reached almost £30,000. The reason was that the amount was getting
serious and the members felt it threatened the social success of the club. We
now have started again and as usual we will be watching your site
carefully...it's done us proud so far.
She is back in hospital for the eating disorder but doing
very well having had the all clear from the cancer. I just wanted to say the NHS
has been just brilliant. The staff at the sharp end have given their all to keep
my daughter alive.
Markets
Recent top up Gyrus is having a good start to the week, if
it can confirm a few closes above 400p that would look bullish.
The company continues to win good contracts. It's moved
sharply higher today and this should see the start of shorters closing and the
price shifting significantly higher.
Tempting to quit at breakeven but I'm holding still as this
could be the bottom. However 140 looks strong on level 2 so it's one I'll leave
if it dips below.
I'm currently in profit by nearly £10,000 even given the
current weakness but obviously would late to lose them! However unless things
have suddenly changed it looked fundamentally very sound.
Mum at last is out of hospital and at my
sister's house. She's paralysed down one side so she has to be hoisted in and
out of a wheelchair. The nursing care bill (four visits a day) comes to £502 per
week. £26,102 a year. We can afford it thank goodness. That all goes out of a window when
you've got a toddler. My office looks like a bomb site. What have we got?
Scattered about the floor by Christopher are: Two fire engines, a pushchair, ten
DVD's, three teletubbies, one Bob The Builder, One Thomas Tank Engine, a milk
bottle, four crusts of toast, various smears of God knows what. And that's just
under the desk.
He's not in your sister's league financially, although the
company he founded 4 years ago ('Just Lamps' supplying projector lamps) grew
200% last year and was the 7th fastest growing private UK company in the Sunday
Times Top 100 league in 2006.
After the commission and stamp duty am not sure that I
would make a profit, what are the pitfalls or say buying 10000 shares when the
NMS is 500.
Markets
What a crazy day that was yesterday.. good for day traders
I guess while giving heart attacks to longer-term investors... anyway a few
trades to report from the last couple of days.
If it can continue and improve on that, the high rating and
an even higher one is justified. It may struggle to get over 400p but once
through could strengthen well.
Could be a bid or MBO on the way.. doesn't matter to me
what that is, but this looks a good short-term profitable trade and while the
wind is behind it, worth taking the ride. I don't intend to stay in very long. I
bought 1,000 RMV shares at 459.9 yesterday - target 520, stop 420.
My reason for taking profits at this stage was a trading
statement this morning that was fine though written terribly. It was enough to
make some people like me take a few profits. The statement appeared downbeat
when actually it was really upbeat. Bizarre. I'm a bit surprised they are down
as much as they are today.
I was thinking I could buy back lower for more and I'm
actually tempted to buy back pretty quickly! The company looks in good shape and
I'll be buying back on the spreads soon especially if I can grab a fresh lot in
the low 800s.
There won't be an update tomorrow (Thursday)
- My mum is moving from hospital into my sister's so I want to be around and
won't have time for an update. But I'll be back Friday. Indeed quite honestly I could have gone
on holiday for three months and not looked at the markets at all and the money
would have built up! I'll keep you all informed of progress every 3 months or
so.
Furthermore, my stockbroker charges 1.25% commission,
minimum 32 euro. Therefore, why on earth does anybody buy shares the normal way
instead of spread betting, which is tax free and has no tax or commission.
I know there are bigger spreads and the prices might not be
the best, but it still a lot cheaper, assuming you make a profit. I hear they
are risky, but if you do not use leverage, then what is the problem?
I am seriously considering using spread betting only, but I
thought I would run this past you first, given your extensive knowledge
Geoffrey writes: Golly - you're a patient fella! I see that
you first bought these in January (I think) 2005 at a little less than today.
Bit of a nondescript performance in the meantime!, but I like your reasoning for
buying in again.
Markets
A new buy to report, and you guessed it! It's a top up!
I've already bought this share at 225, 224 and 217 and it's now over 300 with
profits of more than £5,000 for me already. Time to take profits, no? No, I
don't think so.
In fact I'm buying more today. My view is always that
investors don't run the winners and then top up on them, preferring to be
impatient, snatch at small profits while keeping the losers. I prefer to build
big stakes in the winners.
Results are due out next week and I think they will be
cracking - indeed if the last statement still holds they definitely will be
cracking.
Of course there will be people sitting on profits like me
that could take them on results day but this is a long-term one for me and I
expect to sit on these and the other shares I bought for maybe a year, maybe two
and enjoy the capital increase with no sweat.
Am I ever going to be able to go out again?
I've been a prisoner here for days! Help!! Is there anyone out there?? This
bloody bronchitis is driving me nuts. I'm not supposed to go out but I'm going
to have to get out at some time. Lovely though this place is, I wouldn't mind
seeing somewhere else, especially Starbucks.. Maybe I'll go against doctor's
orders and try and at least have a walk out this afternoon. Talk about stir
crazy!!
Markets
A new buy to report and that's in RPC (RPC) I bought 2,300
shares in two batches today at 273.7p. Target 320 stop 245.
They've passed on a lot of the increased costs to their
customers. Now think if they can maintain those higher prices AND reap the
benefit of lower oil costs. Could be a double whammy.
Also consider the company's profits hardly declined even
taking the higher oil prices into account. So as a play on lower oil prices,
this one could be a big winner, here's hoping!
Looks like the shares have overshot on the downside here
and they should recover. It's in a growing market and I'll stick with it for now
and wait and see what the March results bring.
It continues to be a sick household here. The
antibiotics are starting to have an effect and I'm gradually getting better
though still can't leave the house till the bronchitis clears up. With Christopher still coughing and
Elizabeth feeling poorly too, we're struggling to cope. Not the greatest start
to the new year. Doesn't really help with making trading decisions either. Looks like some fascinating TV coming up
this week as Gerry Robinson tackles the NHS on BBC2 over the next few nights.
I'm a great fan of Gerry and think he is a brilliant manager of people. As I always suspected the lazy fatcats
at the top of the tree earn the most and do the least while the poor nurses earn
the least and do the most.
I could not have picked a worst time in the whole century
unfortunately. I have lost all my saving and borrowed from my ex girl friend. I
have lost about 18k. For me it is an absolute fortune.
Markets
'Robbie, Robbie, buy me buy me!' shriek some of the shares
on my current shortlist of ones I like the look of.
Really love one especially - could have bought it out of
boredom on Friday but didn't and I was right as it's down 3p today. Can't wait
to buy it when it turns..
And I made a few grand also on a few profits I took a while
back. So VP's made me some nice money over the years. And it's off up again -
tempted to buy another load... we'll see.
Phew! Just about managed an update today - it
was a close run thing but just about had enough time in between coughing bouts
to do it. My 2-year-old and myself are on our second day of antibiotics for
bronchitis.
Markets
Still concentrating more on being able to breathe than the
markets today.. and I haven't taken out any new positions. One I'm eyeing up
isn't yet a buy according to level 2 so just waiting for a buy signal on that
one.
What a great break - had a fabulous time! I
did work a bit during that time as I traded a little - details in the market
report! I hope you all had a wonderful rest. It's quite difficult to get back in
the swing of things isn't it? Sadly of course my mum is still in the
rehabilitation centre. We went down there for their Xmas lunch. To be honest it
was pretty sad. Loads of confused old ladies wondering what to do with the
crackers. The staff there are great and do their
best. Strokes are very cruel things and rob people of their dignity. It is truly
awful. My mum is OK but I don't really think she knows she'll never walk again.
I don't have the heart to say anything.
It was awful to say goodbye to Julie, Elizabeth's sister who we hardly
ever see because she works in New York. Probably won't see her again till next
Xmas and we are very sad about that. She is great to have around.
Markets
I made quite a few trades since I last updated the site! I
usually find trading between Xmas and New Year quite rewarding. So here they are
in no particular order - as you'll see I am still keen on real estate and have
added more to the portfolio.
It's a bit riskier than it was at a higher level but I
think 2007 could see some consolidation among brokers and this one looks a
likely bid target. Target 460 stop 340.
That's it! This is the last update till
after Christmas. Full updates will resume again in the afternoon of Wednesday
January 3rd.
Darren: I just wanted to say to you & your family from my
family have a happy Christmas & new year best wishes to your mum, sounds like
she is a fighter so she will soon regain her independence, try looking on the
mobility website it may interest her for the future.
Don't forget to leave a little nip of brandy & 1 cookie & 1
carrott for father christmas & his reindeer so that Christopher gets all the
best presents.
Its great and noble to want to spend time with your mother
etc. and you're a great man for that, but I think you probably get a lot out of
doing the website etc. Wishing you luck with the decisions. End of lecture.
Markets
Rather a quiet day today but I'm sure none of us mind as
let's face it we are all busy getting ready for Christmas! However there's one
I've had on a shortlist for a while and been looking to buy and decided today is
the day!
Apologies, yesterday I said I had bought Computerland - I
actually bought Computacentre - the code I gave was the correct one though (CCC)
- sorry for any confusion.
Getting ready for a nice rest over Xmas
and new year as I'm sure all of you are! I am taking a rest from updating the
site over Xmas - the last update of the year will be tomorrow afternoon
(Thursday) and I'll be back Wednesday January 3rd. Coming to terms with this is hard for me
and perhaps I feel guilty. Maybe I am being selfish. I should stop trading and
the website and see her for a few hours every day. But then I have a life to
lead. Difficult. Remember yesterday I mentioned
Elizabeth, her sister Julie and Christopher were off to Hampton Court for the
day? Sadly Christopher did not like it at all and a stop loss was quickly
activated and they were home by lunchtime!
Markets
The Xmas rally seems to be in full flow today with plenty
of good winners. Two new buys to report. First is a speculative buy in Universal
Salvage (UVS). I bought 1,500 shares at 161.67p and 1,200 shares at 159.78p.
Target 210 stop 145. Reason I bought in two lots is they were trading a max of
1,500 shares online.
Worst comes to the worst it's a false breakout and I'd get
out quite fast. So I guess this is a short term spreadbet only. Not one of my
usual longer-term holds.
Apologies for the very late update
yesterday, server problems strike again. Also had a few problems updating at
lunchtimes so some of the updates have been later than normal. So to those of
you e-mailing worries I've had a crisis or disappeared please do not worry!
Dougie writes: This e mail is to let you know that even
with the best advice in the world it seems that you have to learn from your own
mistakes -:
Around 4 months ago I invested all my money in one stock (GOO)
I did a fair amount of research and felt I was going in with my eyes open. I
bought at 10-11p and started reading the Bulletin board on ADVFN. The bottom
line is that the shares rose to 17p, a pretty good percentage of profit. Did I
sell? No I kept reading the BB.
A lack of news re oil discoveries caused the price to fall
back I decided to sell at 15.5p. 15.5p came along and I thought they will go up
again because news is just around the corner. They kept dropping and I
eventually sold last Friday at 14.9 and banked a small profit.
I decided to put my money into something else on Monday and
spent the weekend researching a couple of companies. Monday came and I bought
back into GOO at 13.5p thinking that they had bottomed out. They continued
falling and on Wednesday I sold again at 12p. Still just in profit but not much.
Markets
A bit of a down day today although I don't fare too badly
with a lot unchanged and some even higher! I've taken some profits off the
table.
First Quintain's been a nice trade but it's been falling
off and started going down this morning so I am closed at 863 for a nice profit
of £1,020. One to be back in I think if it should fall further.. Got loads of Christmas cards over the
weekend. Was quite excited to see who they were from... but then..'All the best
from the team at Self Trade'. And the next? 'Seasons Greetings from Sporting
Index!' And also.. 'Happy Xmas from ManSpread Trading'. And 'Have a great Xmas
from Fulham Pizzas..' Not great news about my mum I am afraid.
Looks like she will be unable to walk again which is obviously terrible news.
Tom: I have been tracking my shares for the past few months and they have
just broken through the 900p barrier, for the first time, my only concern is
that the middle price for the shares is only 877p because the offer price is
only 849p, very low, is this something I should worry about as it is a very
recent change which I haven't seen before with the shares although I have seen
them break through the 800p barrier a few months ago and don't remember seeing
the same thing
Markets
One new buy to report - and I think this is going to be a
big share for 2007 with the potential to double in value over the year. So I've
bought it with probably at least a six month view, maybe more.
The company is involved with LED lighting - something that
I think will be a big winning technology over the next two years and I don't
think the company's potential is yet reflected in the share price and it'll get
a big re-rating next year.
Obviously there is going to be competition to Dialight but
the company is already making decent profits and I really feel the only way is
up with this one.
They may well end up being taken over late next year like
Birse was so I will keep an eye on them. Total profit for the site today is
£241.
Yet another night out for me, well it's
a sociable time of the year isn't it? Met up with an old friend who works for
Sky News where I used to work. Always fun to get the latest gossip especially
regarding the on screen newsreaders. Lots to do this weekend - and
Christopher is going to get to meet Santa Claus on Sunday! He's booked in to
meet the Selfridges Santa and at the prices they charge the present better be a
good one!
Markets
Ok, I know this is boring but afraid this is another
excellent day. For the first time in a while I've bought nothing in the last 24
hours! While there are shares on my radar, level 2 tells me they aren't a buy
this morning.
Only reason for the sale was to raise money to buy
something else and as I have a lot of Charter. Still think the shares will
eventually go 1000+ but perhaps not this year!
At last!! A good meal!!! As you may know
I've grumbled about some diabolical meals I've had out recently in both Milan
and London. Oh no! I've just realised I've written
absolutely no Xmas cards at all. None! Zip!! In fact I haven't even got any...
but look, I guess people who have been friends for a long time will still be
friends without getting a card from me, right?
Markets
Another buy from the shortlist I presented at last week's
seminar. Actually lucky I bought yesterday afternoon as it was tipped by an
investment magazine this morning which has forced up the price to nearly 100p.
Elsewhere yet another great day for the portfolio, I know I
keep saying this but it's true! Real estate is the big winnner for me today with
Shaftesbury and Savills rising hugely. Both potential bid targets I think.
Awful when you get caught doing
something naughty! I was bang to rights last night. I'd watched Ramsay's Kitchen
Nightmares. Just love this show. I think Ramsay is brilliant and so is
this programme. He's not great on everything because he hams it up for some of
the other ones but this one is superb. I also added that's why we leave
cupboard doors open - it drives girls crazy but when we need food we open the
doors grab the food and could care less about the door! Men and women eh, so
different but that's why we get on, eh? Tony Blair must be the only person in
the whole of the UK that thinks the NHS is in 'good shape'. I've had to visit
four hospitals recently and none are anywhere near.
Markets
Two new buys to report and one huge profit take! Let's
start with that for a change. I've sold out of Keller. It's had a wonderful run
but my gut feeling is it's time to take the profit and what amazing profits! I
sold all remaining shares at 673 (yesterday) and all remaining spread bets
(today) at 668.
This means it is looking at serious candidates. And I think
there is a big buyer around judging from trades and the price rising quite
quickly now.
But for now my target is 73 which is when I will re-look at
it and decide whether it might fall back, or indeed, I may buy some more if it
pushes through. Stop loss is 60 where there is tons of support.
I think his followers will be getting anxious now and may
start to close out which could spike the price up. And if he has to close we
could see 500p soon.
Poor Christopher has had a rough time after he got his measles jab last
week. We're giving him separate ones and paying rather than the MMR.
Markets
I think the shares are tightly held and institutions are
desperate to get some and the price will continue to squeeze up. Of course I
could be wrong but I have a nice cushion from the lower buy! Target 6700 stop
5500.
It is breaking out wonderfully and I don't think it looks
fairly valued till the 500p mark. Target 500p stop 380. Indeed I am simply
adding to my long-term hold of this. I can actually see it going to 600p by
middle of next year.
Markets
I bought a new share live at the seminar on Friday!
Delegates voted this one the favourite by quite some margin. The company is
called Domestic and General (DGG). I bought 500 shares at 1094.1p Target 1195
stop 980. I also added some more this morning! I bought a further 500 shares at
1092.1. Same target and stop.
On Thursday I bought a spreadbet in Dyson (DYS) for £20 at 214. Target 280
stop 190. I also had it on the seminar shortlist and when I brought it up Friday
afternoon it was up 14p or something! So I bought some more this morning
this time a normal trade of 1,800 shares at 244.99p, target 295 stop 210.
Again I know I'm going to disappoint you
all but this is the last update till Monday (yes, I know like the Teletubbies...
again, again!) It's because of the seminar on Friday, lots of prep work to do as
well as checking everything works tomorrow. Very disappointing that Gordon Brown
didn't increase the amount allowed in ISA's. By not raising the threshold again
the value of the 7k a year gradually is being whittled away. If he raised it and scrapped stamp duty
on shares he would have really made a difference to business. As that Dragons
Den lady said on the BBC, there is nothing in there for business at all!
For many reasons we have a huge problem when it comes to
quality of food when we go out for a meal. Let me give you a few pointers to
help you avoid the worst places:
If they ( the waiter or waitress ) bring you a menu as long
as your arm and you see only two young chaps running around in the kitchen
that's bad news. It can not be done unless the food is pre-prepared and gets
re-heated in the micro-wave.
Regrettably, the trend is to employ ever younger persons
for this position with the inevitable consequences. If the menu employs fancy
phraseology such as drizzled with virgin olive oil or balsamic vinegar be very
circumspect!
Fresh food prepared from scratch with care and attention to
detail is not that cheap to produce. So maybe we get the food we deserve!
Markets
Another excellent day! One new buy to report that's 95
shares in Daejan (DJAN) at 5120. Target 5700 stop 4700. Yes, you guessed it!
Another real estate company, and yes I do rather like them and yes they are
making me a lot of money right now.
Right, back to the Milan trip. The next
morning Nathalie drove down from Switzerland and met Elizabeth for an all day
shopping trip!
Markets
Another excellent day, is Santa coming early (joke there
somewhere but not in front of the children) With real estate shares going crazy
I looked around for another one that might be,. er overlooked and came up with
Shaftesbury (SHB) and bought 700 shares at 694.45p and a spreadbet of £15 a
point at 696. Target 760 stop 680.
I'm glad to say this flight will be an
hour and a half long,' said the captain cheerfully when we arrived on the plane
to go to Milan for the weekend. 'And the weather is excellent along the route..'
As I tried to get train tickets there
was a blazing row going on between the staff and two seperate 'customers'. Not
impressed with whoever trains the. They could not care less about their
customers.
Griffo writes: I am a 70 year old pensioner, and I want to put £7000 into the ISA mostly blue chip as I am
not trying to make a fast buck, I might have say one gamble ,but I will select
very carefully.
My problem is if say any of the shares go down to the
stop-loss, the shares are sold, can they be replaced within the same ISA, could
you explain how this would be done.
You can basically do whatever you like with 7k, buy and
sell as many shares as you want but you can't add more than 7k a year.... hope
that explains it!
I have a question, that I feel a bit dumb asking, but I'll
ask anyway (gulp) - If a Market Maker is shown to have bought sizeable chunks in
a company over the course of a few days (which Aminex does on Toplists) have
they got wind of something or are they fulfilling an order for someone who has
got wind of something?
I can only see this move as a positive indicator for the
share price, but alas I only know what I know! I'd be interested in your
thoughts.....
Markets
Quite relieved at the moment! At some points it looks like
the markets are going to tank but in the end they hold up fine. If we can get
through the next couple of weeks without a major downturn the Xmas rally could
be on!
Anyway I've had a quiet spell of trading as I wanted to
take a real holiday and tried not to look much or do anything from Italy.
However I've done two 'top-ups'.
My main reasons for topping up were a buy of 1m shares by a
company that specialises in helping companies in recovery to do really well and
they have a good track record.
And strength in the share starting to come back in after a
quiet spell. And also a director bought. I've talked about Renold at length
previously so I'm not going to wax lyrical again except to say I think more
gains are on the way.
It was down 25p mainly because it had gone ex dividend for
15p and realised a few investors were selling up because they thought the shares
were tanking.
With just a small lot of shares at 781.5 available and the
rest at 789 I could not resist and bought a further 1000 shares at 781.5. Target
890 stop 720.
Savills too goes well but profits beckon soon too.
Latchways continues to rise most days and again today. Lovely one. Oil services
have all gone higher with good performances from Sondex, Hunting and Petrofac.
Managed to get a babysitter so we went
off to see the new James Bond movie. I can see why the reviews were good, the
best one for a while except for one or two gripes.
Markets
A very busy day. First a new buy. I am kicking myself for
selling Latchways too early a while back at something like 880 - even though I
took good profits I should have held for more. What an idiot I was!
The management here is always cautious in reporting and at
its current rating the shares look about right. But there just isn't any obvious
upside for probably at least four months.
So while I don't think they will head south much more I
also don't think they will go north much either and will end up in the 165-180
area and staying there.
Hurrah! Christopher can officially count
from one to ten! And he knows how clever he is being doing it at only just 2. He
says 'ten' very triumphantly indeed! At his three day a week nursery he is
now a member of the 'big boys' room. A little sad to think he is no longer a
baby! Jag writes: You sometimes make reference
to the chart of a particular share and was wondering what charting
software/package/service you use when you want to take a look at a shares chart?
Markets
It's been a down week which really isn't unexpected and in
a way I don't mind. How so Robbie? Because if the market slips another couple of
hundred points by mid December there is going to be one hell of an Xmas rally
with a lot of money to be made!
My office is in a mess right now and I
blame the tax people. Because us self-employed have to keep paperwork for six
years (ridiculous!) I have to keep hundreds of bits of paper just in case. Quite rightly some critical mail about
my Paragon nonsense yesterday..Frank writes: You then re-bought @ LOWER price of
620.35 with a HIGHER target @ 720. Where are the maths here ?? Simply does NOT
compute. I was long & am still holding as I didn't manage to emulate your
Houdini act. Will probably buy back in again if it
falls below 350P. My one exception to this rule is Vislink (bought at 87P) where
you keep upgrading your target.
Markets
Quite a lot to get through today with a lot more trading
from me than usual. Basically some profit-taking and a little bargain hunting.
It's a short-term trade, I think a bounce to 750 is likely
though it could struggle past there. It seems to be strong given the weak
market. I don't intend to hang about if the price drops though!
These are an excellent set of results which shows a company
recovering fast with some new management. They should be sitting at nearer
120-130 and happy to top up and hold fast for the gains to come.
Why is the food in this country so crap? The three of us walked to our
local pub (a chain one) because we thought it would be nice not to bother to
cook and Christopher could make a mess on someone else's floor for a change. I hate to shout but cooking simple food
IS EASY!!! Ok, rant over but I enjoyed it so thank you for listening - other
food horror stories welcome!
Markets
A quite bizarre fall in Paragon on the back of excellent
results this morning. I literally got caught with my pants down! I assumed the
shares would hold easily at 650p - so I went off to my boudoir with a copy of
The Sun for a little sitdown (don't worry I quite understand the phrase 'too
much information'). More presents have arrived for
Christopher (he's a lucky boy isn't he!). We're very grateful for the presents
but the trouble is he now has FIVE fire engines which all pretty much do the
same thing. Craig writes: Wondered how long it would
be before you were back in Vanco at these bargain levels! I'm back in as well
been watching it very closely over the past few months; there's definitely been
'something' going on, and your site explains it. This was just the 'excuse' I had been
looking for to buy back into this excellent company. Two of the directors bought
10,000 shares and a third 4,000 - not an insignificant amount. AND the global role out of its 'Oracle
Enterprise Resource Planning' (completed at the end of this July) they are
surely going to do extremely well over the next couple of years, at least. The
rollout of the latter project brings even greater cost controls and is predicted
to significantly increase growth and profits from 2007 and beyond. In 9 of the last 10 tests at Brisbane
over 1000 runs have been scored. The only failure was against the Windies when
they collapsed to 82ao & 124ao. Mcgarth had match figures of
10/27,however, I'm not sure of your buy of eng zero's. I believe eng will be
competitive against aus provided the bowling unit performs and the price is
about right.
Markets
One new buy to report.. ok, it's real estate again but this
sector's booming prospects short-term at least are too good to ignore. This time
I've gone for Savills (SVS) buying 1,000 shares at 621.92p - target 720 stop 590
Calamity! CBeebies didn't show Christopher's
second birthday card... Mrs NT watched patiently all morning. Never been happier
to see the end titles for the Teletubbies and not because we'd seen the custard
episode 100 times already (PO stole the Tubby custard by the way, sorry to spoil
it for you) but they do the birthdays after that. He got three fire engines....which is
probably one fire engine too many. His best present ended up being a box of
rubber spiders cos he loves spiders.. We can't take Christopher to see my mum in
hospital anymore which is a shame. But the hospital is right: it is too risky to
take him with all the bugs that are around and we were told in no uncertain
terms not to bring him again. Also your mum is in my thoughts, a few
years ago I went thru the same with my mum, god bless them all. However the fiendish market-makers are
allowed to delay publication of trades which means the machines are matching up
a trade with the current price that could have been made earlier in the day!
Markets
I got back into an old favourite on Friday afternoon -
that's Vanco (VAN). I bought 1,700 shares at 397p. Target 495 stop 345. I think
it's simply the wrong price because of various recent events and a bodged
shorting raid.
Lazy shorters who don't do their homework love this kind of
share - they go in and short and encourage others to do the same. A big-name
shorter shorted the other day and encouraged followers to do the same.
'Just to clarify various misinformation. Vanco's accounting
policy is the perfectly normal approach of recognizing revenues and matched
costs in the period in which the goods and services are delivered. This is
accordance with the accruals accounting principal.
Two going down - REA and Marchpole. No idea with REA, happy
to hold anyway and Marchpole is down after some question marks over additional
shares that I thought was already in the price. Probably a buying opportunity on
weakness. Vislink gets the treeshake treatment today. I just yawned, 120 on the
way!
A rare night out for us last night.
Decided to try and forget about family troubles for one night. So babysitter in
place we hit Fulham Broadway for the ribs shack and tucked into ribs with lots
of disgusting BBQ sauce. God knows what's in it and I wouldn't want to know but
delicious!
Markets
Another pretty good day especially as the market is a bit
on the down side today. On new trade to report - that's 10,000 shares in
Management Consulting Group (MMC) at 46.7p this morning. Target 55p, stop 41p.
There have been some management changes and it looks like
there is plenty of room for upside. Certainly at the current price I can't see
where any downside is coming from with plenty of support at 45p.
Do people really say 'Awesome' or
'Wicked' outside of TV reality shows? It's just that I only hear the words on
Big Brother and I'm A Celebrity. Maybe I mix with the wrong crowd (or the right
crowd!) Scotty writes: I am a New Zealander
living in the UK. As you may know the banks use the NZ banking system to trial
a lot of the new systems that they want to roll out worldwide. For example we have had PIN numbers for
over a decade on our bank cards. We also pay a monthly fee for the 'privilege'
of having an account with them and what's worse is they then charge up to $5NZ
everytime you get cash out of a ATM.... and as we have all continued banking
with them I guess they have decided to try it out on everyone else, so I reckon
it is only a matter of time. On the plus side cheques clear
immediately and any transfers made on internet banking take 24hrs.. maybe not
worth the fees though..
Markets
A quiet day today but my lot are still going well
nevertheless! I have one or two shares I am dying to buy but level 2 and my
self-styled level 3 - those who've been to the seminar will know what I am on
about - tell me not to buy them right now!
Just when things couldn't get any worse with
my mum still in the stroke unit...My father had a fall in the street yesterday
afternoon. He usually seems strong and is much younger than mum at 77. As long
as he has Sky Sports, a can of beer and meals on wheels he is normally fine. Remember last week I wrote about Morgan
Stanley bombarding me with crap trying to get me into debt or making charges? This from a newspaper today: 'Thousands
of customers with bank First Direct face a charge of £10 a month on their
current account as finance giants move to kill free banking. First Direct is
part of the giant HSBC group, which recently warned the introduction of fees on
accounts was 'inevitable.' Graham writes: Two of the shares I have
an interest in reported this week. The share price of both was rising nicely in
the weeks before the due date. Results were good for both, but the market
reaction could not have been more different. Fenner SP fell 9%, Invensys rose
15%. The adage buy on the rumour, sell on the
fact could only be applied in one case. Luckily I had sold Fenner,
coincidentally the same day that you did, so I must be learning something from
you, and I held Invensys. My question is, are there any indicators
to look for that give a clue which way to go leading up to report day? I
thoroughly enjoy your daily updates, and appreciate you keeping it all going
during your recent difficult times. They have been steadily climbing and
yesterday shot up 7%, 2nd highest riser on the FTSE 350. It turns out it was due
to takeover speculation. Finding myself in a dilemma now, not knowing whether to
sell or not! The shares have dropped slightly today. It looks like the speculation
surrounding the takeover is unfounded, so I'm tempted to cash in as in 15% up in
6 weeks! Have you got any advice on takeover speculation? I'm still frequently reading your
website, trying to save some money... They look like theirs a lot to be gained from them. Anyway,
hope to hear from you, keep up the good work, hope you, Mrs T and Christopher
are well!
Markets
Wow! Yet another sensational day. And yet again when I
write words like that I probably ought to be taking profits. However I am going
to continue riding the strength of shares and resist banking for the moment - a
difficult temptation to resist as I think the site has on paper profits of more
than £50,000, probably more. Not a great weekend - my mum suffered a
further small stroke which has set her back a bit - she was due to move to the
nice rehabilitation centre but now remains in hospital. The new stroke means
it's hard for her to speak but she writes everything down and is 'all there'.
Markets
There are big volumes coming into the smallish builders
like Galliford and Costain and this can only mean one thing to me, is there some
bid action on the way? Well, I don't know and it's pure speculation but I've
watched the volumes coming into Costain and have joined in.
So a total banked profit today of £1,032. A mixed bag today
with some good moves up and some moves down. Smashing set of results from
Diploma which are a little down on what I suspect is very minor profit-taking.
It think sellers are crackers. I love these results and
think the shares will go to 1000+ as long as the current bull market stays in
place. If it goes down any further I shall be buying some more.
To make things more difficult the shares are volatile so
can jump around a lot making it even harder to make the right move. One could
even argue it's a good top--up price. Robbie Burns has been trading successfully for over 7 years, having spent 1996 to 2001 as finance and general editor for Sky TV's text services. Robbie has started this commentary page on Sky and Channel 5 text in 2000 and ran it until summer 2002, during which time he made profits of more than £50,000, even during the bear market from 2001. Robbie now runs an independent cafe and catering business, but trades more or less full time. He uses ISA's and PEP's to avoid tax liabilities and runs his own pension fund in a SIPP. Visit his site here
So we ended up in the car with a box of popcorn, two magnums, no movie and
already experiencing McDonalds 'kickback' - you know what I mean.. And just when
things couldn't have got much worse...
We got home and Elizabeth realised she'd forgot to take the cash out of
the cashpoint machine!! (£100) So the evening ended up costing £170 for, well a
quarter pounder, a big mac and two magnums. We had to laugh about it, not much
else you can do!
Exactly John, fat chance of the staff managing to get anything through the
bureaucrats!
Stuart writes: It's over a year since I've dropped you a line but I read
your words of wisdom on a very regular basis. You may remember I'm in a small
share club with ten members saving £30 a month.
On a personal note I too watched Gerry Robinson in the National Health
tonight....very interesting with such out of touch senior management styles.
You may remember my daughter developed an eating disorder and has been in
and out of hospital in Warwick for six years, in October 2005 she was diagnosed
with cancer, seriously developed Hodgkin's Lymphoma..
At last I'm feeling more positive and 2007 will be our year...today I
bought my first shares...I'm reading your site with great interest....Can I wish
you, your family and your readers a healthy, happy and hopefully prosperous new
year.
Stuart - Good to hear from you. Taking the profits seems like an excellent
idea. Agreed when the money becomes more serious it becomes a bit less fun!
Great news about your daughter getting the cancer all clear. Marvellous.
Now let's hope the disorder can be sorted out. I've read what a big problem this
is these days. You sound very positive and that's great - I wish you and the
family all the best for 2007.
Short-term trade Rightmove goes well too. A rise up to the 500p level looks on
the cards, if not I can just get out.
Good to see Vanco rising sharply today - this is thanks to a Mail on
Sunday piece regarding the ambitions of chief exec Allen Timpany. As I reported
a while ago, he told me a recent accounting note from Bridgewell which cause a
slide was inaccurate.
Mixed and complex statement from Delta. Been holding a small amount for a
while and it's back to where I bought it. Hard to make head or tail of such a
mixed message statement.
Recent oil price fall buy RPC continues to strengthen very nicely and it
will be interesting to see whether it can get near or break 300p.
Croda - where profits are now over £6,000 is looking very close to
breaking that difficult 600p level. More good gains to come if it can.
Vislink has been weak for a bit, but it's done this before and I'm
sticking with it unless there's bad news. A trading statement is due any day
which will be the key to whether it can gain further.
TT electronics put out a sound statement today. Has been a nice winner
since I bought it and while it's pausing to digest the news, it looks an
excellent company with more to come.
Telecom Plus has now nearly doubled since I bought - profits for me now
over £5,000. It seems to have confirmed its break above 200 and 230 is the next
stop.
Scott Wilson reports tomorrow. I suspect it'll go down a bit whatever the
statement - it did this last time despite a very positive outlook. Given my main
buys are in the 220 area unless there is anything nasty in there I'll stick with
it.
Real estate is picking up well again with reasonable risers in all my re
holdings. The market looks reasonably set fair for the moment though of course
plenty of worries around from investors.
Friday 12th January
To be honest I thought she's be better off in a really nice home because
she'd get more stimulation from activities and she's made new friends and enjoy
being sociable.
Well, perhaps I was wrong! She seems happy enough so far. We'll have to
see because everyone's out at work all day so she'll generally only have nurses
for company though of course she''' get visits from friends and me and
Christopher.
Being completely selfish, I've decided I want to make as much money as
possible having seen what goes on. I want more than enough so that I can buy as
much care as I need for old age.
In my book I talk about having an uncluttered environment. 'Always have an
un-cluttered desk and office environment, it helps to keep the head clear and
uncluttered too..' I wrote smugly.
The cat is cowering in the corner after being chased all over the place -
well, I guess it keeps her on her toes, first exercise she's done in years!
Trading with a 2-year-old on the loose certainly makes it a lot more
challenging! Especially when you're in the middle of a trade and a certain
someone wants the teletubbies to appear on the computer screen..He seems over
his bronchitis now, I'm still struggling a bit but getting better all the time.
Headline of the day? David Beckham: 'I just want to make a difference to
the kids of America..' Presume he's not interested in the £128m then?
Phil writes: Really interested in your piece today about looking after
your sister's ISA as I also look after my son-in-law's SIPP and have a very
similar experience to yours.
Like you I've traded very occasionally (6 times in 2006) and, using some
of the techniques in your book, I have increased the fund from 42,000 to 62,000
in 14 months. I've also increased his ISA from 7000 in April 2003 to 17,500
today, and all tax free. Although to him it's pin money, to me it's a
'professional' challenge/ego trip and I take it very seriously because it's
someone else's money.
Well done on that performance, Phil...Yes, I would never ever consider
running a fund for anyone - don't mind losing money myself but I would hate to
lose other people's money.
But I think it's OK running it for the family with throwaway money. Well
done again on your performance, that's excellent and it must be very rewarding!
Barry writes: I have started to invest, At the
moment I am thinking of buying a share. The only problem is that the NMS is 500,
which is pretty low for such cheap shares. why would the NMS be so low?
Also looking at the chart they appear to be coming up after a downturn,
there interim reports also seem quiet good or should i say safe. The problem is
I am always dubious about buying shares that appear to be fairly cheap!
Hi Barry - I can't advise you on individual shares as such but can offer a
general opinion...When the normal market size is low - beware. It means the
market makers don't hold much stock and if you buy say more than 4X NMS you may
have trouble selling your holding if there was for example a profits warning. It
usually also means the stock is illquid and inevitably it is probably high risk.
When NMS is so low, as they say, buyer beware
One new buy to report - that's more shares in Gyrus (GYG). I already hold
shares at 334p and 344p but bought more yesterday, this time 1,200 shares at
399.51p. Target 480 stop 350.
This medical equipment supplier is on a higher rating than the kind of
shares I normally go for but I am tempted in by the huge growth being
experienced at the company.
I also bought a few Rightmove (RMV). I'm buying simply because there is
such excellent buying volume coming in. Though the rating looks high, it might
be worth going with the flow as there is something going on here.
I took part profits in Charter this morning. Sold the spreadbet that has
been going for a while (I bought at 653) at 912 to make a nice giant profit of
£5,180. I have retained my other holdings in Charter.
Elsewhere the portfolio has improved after all the shenanigans Property
shares have recovered. Croda is looking especially good as it challenges 600p
again.
Vanco is rising quite nicely back up to the 440ish area. It tends to stall
in that area so any break though would be good news. Recent buy RPC goes very
well indeed (chosen by me as a play on lower oil prices). Await results from
Scott Wilson next week. A good set should see the shares have an excellent year.
Hunting moves well and Savills is higher after a share placing went
through. All in all quite a volatile week - it'll be interesting to see what
next week brings.
Wednesday 10th January
I'm not going to moan about my bronchitis today you'll be glad to hear.
But I'm getting better and looks like Christopher's has finished.
I see Morrissey may be writing this year's Eurovision Song Contest entry.
He has no chance - he obviously doesn't realise the music doesn't matter. The
other countries hate us still because of the Iraq war so whatever we put out
will get close to 'null points.'
I suggest he quits fast or else the day after the contest he'll be sitting
at home listening to: 'Heaven Knows I'm Miserable Now...'
Want to quit the rat race? Ever thought of cleaning windows? The window
cleaner arrived yesterday carrying a brand new set of golf clubs.
'Playing golf after this with my new set,' he said. Business apparently is
booming. 'Got way too many clients,' he said. 'That's why you don't see me quite
so much. More business than I can deal with. The money's rolling in!'
'My Dad left me the business but I said I didn't want it. Then he showed me how
much he made..'
Ten minutes later my windows were clean. 'That's £25 mate,' he said.
No bloody wonder he's off to the golf course. I'm thinking of taking it up
myself.
Anyone want their windows cleaned?
Got a mail from John this morning: Hello Robbie, I seem to remember you
posting early last year that you were to manage your sisters Isa portfolio and
advise your pilgrims on the progress of this Isa. Having seen no reference since
have you decided against this?
Not at all John I forgot! Of course I would have completely ignored your
mail if I'd cocked up their ISAs but they've done well...
Remember my sister and her husband are extremely rich, you're talking many
many millions. She owns 4 West End theatres and he is a top lawyer in one of the
biggest law firms and is a partner. Don't even imagine what their yearly income
is!
Therefore the money they put in their ISAs is the equivalent of a tiny bit
of loose change for them and they don't care if I lose the money. But I want to
show off of course and that's the only reason I'm doing it - a horrible mix of
vanity and ego, quite disgusting really.
My sister's ISA initial £7,000 is now £8.500 - her current portfolio is
Renold and Vislink. A profit of over 20%. My sister's husband started with
£14,000 (two lots of 7k) and his is now £18,300, a profit of nearly 30%. His
portfolio is Telecom Plus, Renold, Latchways and Trifast.
I'm quite pleased with that, Telecom Plus nearly doubling for her husband
has really made that portfolio soar - quite conservative holdings now for them
both in case of a meltdown. Renold and Vislink, both bought at much lower prices
than now have helped a lot.
I've told them both they are losing a lot of money so I think they will be
pleased when they get a statement in May! Neither of them read my site so the
secret is between us ok?
Interesting to note perhaps that I've probably only traded on their
accounts 6-7 times and just let the winners run higher. It shows you can make
money without having to trade heavily.
Mark writes - I have a quick question which you may be able to give me
advice on. I'm living in Ireland and as you may know we get a hard deal on taxes
for trading, even worse than England. 1% stamp duty, 20% on profits and only
£1,000 tax free allownace per year (capital gains tax).
Hi Mark! Speaking to investors in Dublin a few weeks ago I was amazed at
how badly treated Irish investors are taxwise. In the UK we can trade £7k tax
free plus a near 9k capital gains allowance and .5% stamp duty.
I agree given all this that spreadbetting in Ireland is a very attractive
proposition. Whether you only spreadbet or not is a difficult one. The only
trouble with spreadbetting is the leverage in that it can entice you to trade
with more money than you really have.
So I'd say if I were living in Ireland, yes I would be tempted to
spreadbet solely. But as you say don't use the leverage. Check your exposure to
each share and make sure you are not trading with money you can't afford to
lose.
The other point to remember is if you buy a share normally you can only
lose your total stake. With a spreadbet your liability can be a lot more. So if
you spreadbet only you need to use and exercise a lot of discipline!
Fenner update this week? Should be interesting, hopefuly. I first bought
these in November 2003 (0.87p) after you first spotted them, and have added
periodically ever since. More recently, ASC has done it nicely for me.
Hope you and Christopher are hunky-dory now. There seems to have been a
really nasty flu epidemic during the last couple of weeks.
Thanks Geoffrey. Patience is my middle name (you have to be as a Fenner
shareholder!). It often pays off though! We're gradually getting there - it's
been a hard illness to shift... glad your trading is going well!
The share? Scott Wilson (SWG) I bought another 1,400 shares at 306.36p
Target 450, stop 255. It's one of my lovely boring ones that just keep going up.
I had a good look at fundamentals today and I think the shares are still cheap.
This environmental consultancy group launched on the market under a year
ago when I snapped some up. It's been a brilliant buy since then, it's winning
loads of contracts and has a full order book.
I took profits of £360 in Computacentre after results today selling at
276p. The results were pretty good but for now the share price looks pretty well
up with events. I'll be interested in these again perhaps later in the year -
and it always was supposed to be a short-term trade. It also failed a few times
to crack 280.
Considering the market is very weak today the portfolio holds up well.
Yesterday's buy RPC is motoring well, others picking up on the fact the falling
oil price is likely to feed through to much improved profits for RPC and because
of this the shares are now much undervalued.
Telecom Plus continues to look good and be a winner. 230p looks a likely
short-term target now with 300p possible by the end of the year. Shouldn't
really be hit by any market downturn either.
Universal Salvage is looking very strong and that looks like a very good
recent buy. I'd been thinking of taking profits in TT Electronics but level 2
looks good so I'll stick with it.
Latchways goes very well even through the spread sometimes is bit wide. VP
continues to look lovely. Fenner released a decent statement today -
shareholders need patience though but it could be Fenner's year.
Oil services look like they are on the way back. Real estate is kind of
breaking even. Trifast looks like it's found a firm floor and should build back
up to the late 80s. The last private investor hasn't quite been bored out of
Vislink yet. When he or she is, the price will begin to motor again!
Tuesday 9th January
I had planned to go bowling with webmaster Dale tonight and had other
things planned too. They're all out of the window. At least I got some sleep
last night for the first time in ages and there are signs it's clearing up.
Level 2 a big help here, it was almost a certainty to rise up to 277p in short
order. RPC is an interesting play - it's a plastics maker - it recently released
results which were similar to the year before.
But what interested me about this one is that the head cheese there said
the results would have been good if oil wasn't trading at 75 dollars a barrel.
He said if oil traded nearer 60, his company would be making a lot more money.
So given the current dip in the oil price, this is one of the companies that
will benefit bigtime if the oil price stays lower for a while.
My guess is with the lower oil prices the company's profits will soar much
higher and so will the share price. Given fundamentally the company is sound,
there could be plenty of upside.
A mixed bag of reports from three of the companies in the portfolio today.
Great statement from Savills resulting in a big rise this morning. On the
evidence of that, the shares have further to go and I'll resist taking the quite
large profits for the moment.
A short statement from Dialight said there's been contract delays in the
USA causing it to delay £1m of sales. That's sales not profits. However it says
everything else is growing. I usually get out of companies that issue negative
things but in the scheme of things £1m sales isn't that much and I'll stay in
there.
Havelock Europa issued a confident statement, looks like they're going to
have a good year and the shares are up again. They need to get above 164 to
really motor and there's a good chance of hitting 200p later this year. Also
should become a safe and steady one.
Some good risers for me today. Carclo is rising again after some
profit-taking occurred and it's going very well today. Same comment re Universal
Salvage which is lifting well today too.
Trifast has become a little disappointing, however one suspects a big
bounce isn't far away - I checked the fundamentals again to be sure, and they
still look good to me. If it falls back to my previous buying price of 77p, I
shall probably buy some more.
My old friend Mouchel Parkman is going for it today and the rise above
450p looks good. What an excellent tuckaway this has been! It's a big component
of the 'safe' side of my SIPP.
Telecom Plus goes through 200p again. These should be 300p by year end and
from a speculative share it's become much safer. Nearly doubled my money on my
first lot and expect to double it on the second lot. Real estate shares are
doing a lot better today with some good risers. The high riskers are going well again!
Monday 08th January
I woke up in the middle of the night struggling to breathe again. It's
really quite horrible though the aged cat is enjoying unexpected company at
night.
What's worse is I can't visit mother who is still laid up in hospital
though we hope she'll be able to move to my sister's house for a bit soon. But
she'll need a hoist to get her in and out of bed, it's not going to be easy.
Anyway I'm sure you don't want to hear me moaning away do you? So.. I'll stop!
As we all know in reality the NHS is in a right state as I've been finding
out having visited numerous hospitals while my mother has been ill.
Gerry tried to manage one hospital and found all kinds of shenanigans.
No-one is sure who's in charge and the consultants don't like working on
Fridays.
Danielle writes: Have been trading very badly and impulsively for a while
a lost a lot. Started from a total lack of knowledge in November 99 watching the
addictive CH4 programme Show me the Money with that genius (....?....) of Tom
Winnifrith.
Hi Danielle. I think a lot of people lost fortunes in those years
1999-2000. Some never made it back to the markets. That show was certainly
addictive but looking back on it it probably didn't do investors any favours.
Good luck as I think you are thinking of giving the markets another go.
'It's no use yelling at me,' say I. 'I'm not buying you just cos I'm sick
and bored and can't get out of the house. Go away and leave me alone.'
It's true though. There is no worse trade than one made out of boredom. I
like the shortlisted shares but none of them show they're a buy on level 2
today. So I'll wait.
Well, actually I did buy a high-risk one today for the SIPP. But that's
just for fun and not real investing. Those who subscribe to my lunchtime e-mail
will hear about it today.
Took part profits in Shaftesbury. Sold my 700 shares at 766.05p this
morning but kept hold of the spreadbet. Just taking a little off the table as
property shares aren't flavour of the month right now. It'll probably come back
but nothing like banking a little profit. Oh, the profit was £501.
A few shares in the portfolio are lying there like great fat puddings
doing nothing. Still eating too much and not going to the gym. They'll all wake
up soon - the ones I'm talking about? Ohhh, Vislink, Renold, Trifast, Creston.
But they're all good-looking companies. Shares like these always rocket
the day after the final private investor got bored and sold. I'm not selling me.
Staying put so there!
Quite a few going well today. Seminar pick Domestic and General looks
ready for a nice big move up. Bet they sold lots of policies over Xmas. Did you
know they run the insurance policies for Sky TV products?
Computacentre is going great guns - though a short-term trade if it can
bust through 280 there could be another 20 points in it. Oil services are
picking up nicely with Sondex, Hunting and Petrofac all higher.
Must mention a few that have crept up quietly. No mess, no fuss with
these. VP deserves an honourable mention. I'm up £2,000 on the VP I bought in
September, and even better up £9,000 on the ones I bought a couple of years ago.
Another creeper to mention is RE which has gone up 100p without me really
noticing. Kind of tempted to bank profits, I'll hold for the moment. Dialight
looks strong and about to move higher I think. Could be my biggest winner for
2007. Could be.... Friday 05th January
My difficulty in breathing has eased a little today - to be honest I was a
bit scared I was going to develop asthma. Still difficult to sleep lying down.
It's funny how you take breathing for granted and when it becomes
difficult it really becomes the only thing that matters. After all if you can't
breathe, well nothing else does matter does it?
At least Christopher appears to be getting better though his cough is
still there. I am pretty much confined to bed for the duration of this and have
heaters in my office for when I nip in and out.
I'm not a great patient. I hate being ill find it very annoying and get a
bit grumpy. Why me? It's not fair. I'm told parents of young children often pick
up lots of illnesses and it's likely Christopher picked up the bronchitis at
nursery and passed it onto me. I really ought to go back to bed.. so keeping
today's update shorter than usual...
I'm surprising myself by saying this but I thought Donny was quite funny
last night - underneath the pretend rebellious act he's rather nice I think!
Leo appears to be a real sweetheart and looks a likely candidate for the
top 3. Sadly they're all getting on well which is something we don't want, do
we? So let's hope Jade livens them up a bit...
The Sky box broke before Xmas and I was tempted to ditch Sky and go back
to having the five channels again when I realised we were missing CBeebies and
that we'd seen the same Thomas the Tank Engine DVD 177 times. So I got a new box
today - which is already not working too well...
A bit of a mixed bag today. My real estate stocks have come back a bit
today but I'm not exactly worried about that yet - I feel 2007 will see bids
coming thick and fast in the sector. So unless stop losses take them out I'll
hold.
A strange looking fall from Universal Salvage. I guess weak holders would
have exited this morning but my gut feeling is to hold on.
Shares beginning with D are having a good day which for me is Dialight,
Domestic and General and Diploma! I'd expect oil services to bottom out around
here so expecting Petrofac, Sondex and Hunting to start coming back.
TT Electronics has been a nice winner and holds up well after decent
recent gains. A few slumbering shares in the portfolio but in a weak market I
really don't mind a few being sleepy...
So basically a strange old day and difficult to know whether it's the
start of an early slide or a push down before another leg up.
Volumes should pick up again next week when everyone is back from holiday
and it'll be interesting to see where the markets are really going. In the
meantime I'll stick in there!
Wednesday 03rd January
In fact I hate to whine but I'm starting the new year with a horrible
cough and cold which Christopher has as well. Nothing much for it but to spend a
lot of time in bed trying to shake it off. Not sure what the point of cough
medicine is - seems to do nothing at all except cost nearly a fiver for the
bottle!
We had visitors staying with us - Elizabeth's two sisters were here - one
from the USA and one from Ireland. Also Elizabeth's Dad.
My 2-year-old was delighted with his presents - a Balamory (kids show) cup
and magazine and DVD plus countless other bright plastic toys. He had a great
time!
Elizabeth bought me a great present - newspapers delivered to my door
every morning! Nice one! And some investment magazines too.
It was great having so much family around to help us with Christopher as
he is such a lively chap.
We managed to go out for a meal on New Year's Eve while Julie babysat and
while it was good the restaurant cunningly hid some leftover sprouts under my
pork belly!
New Year's Day was spent clearing out loads of old junk - it's a great
feeling to get it all done and bagfuls of rubbish was cleared including all my
tax records for 1997-2000. At last!
I bought 700 Primary Care (PHP) at 507.45p on Dec 27th. Target 580, stop
470. This real estate company has already converted to a REIT which will give it
big tax advantages. I also like the way it seems intent on growing by
acquisition.
I bought 1,200 Walker Crips (WCW) at 397.5p on Dec 29th. I made a decent
amount on this one recently buying at just over 300p and selling at 375p or so.
If you remember I made a decent sum in December buying and selling
Quintain Estates. This is top of my list as a potential takeover this year and
this time I've bought a spreadbet with the intention of hanging onto it for a
bit longer this time. I bought QED at £15 a point yesterday morning (Jan 2nd) at
871. Target 995, stop 790. .
One profit take - that was in Carter and Carter sold at 1050.5p on Dec
28th for a profit of £820. It's gone higher since then but thought at that point
it was struggling to go higher, maybe not a great call! Still, a decent profit
banked.
The portfolio continues to blossom since I last updated with many
excellent gainers. Dialight has continued to rise nicely since my buy and I
believe there is a lot more to come as LED technology comes into its own this
year.
Seminar pick Domestic and General has risen sharply and holds onto its
gains with not much profit-taking going on which looks good for another leg up.
My shortish-term trade in Computacentre really goes well now and I'll
stick with it till it turns. Fenner's been going well and announced a disposal
yesterday. My real estate continues to do well with Shaftesbury and Savils both
booming over the holidays.
Oil services go well, Sondex has been motoring up really well recently
while Petrofac looks like cracking the 400p level at last.
Telecom Plus is well on the recovery track and has really gone for it
today, cracking 200p which means I have very nearly doubled my money on the
website buy! The buy at just over 100p is looking pretty good now!
Vislink has been a bit weak due to a director cashing in some options but
he still has 1.2 million shares. I suspect the next report will be excellent and
I'm hoping for a tree shake to pick up a final batch in the low 90s if I can.
Latchways has come back a bit but of course it paid out a 30p dividend
followed by a 6p dividend so nearly £400 coming my way next week from the divs.
Going sets/mm has made the spreads far too wide, it should settle down soon.
Renold's proved a wonderful winner and now some profit-taking has
finished, the shares are back on the move up - should prove a big winner this
year.
Recent buys Universal Salvage and Trifast are both doing well. Universal
is inching up every day while Trifast looks like it's taking a breather after
recent gains. I don't think it'll take much to see Trifast lift up to the 100p
level once the current profit-taking is over.
Croda and Charter are beginning to see some good moves higher. Scott
Wilson, Vanco and TT Electronics are all flying higher too.
So it's really been a very jolly Xmas for my selections, here's to some
more in January. However by February it could be time to bank some profits..
Thursday 21th December
Xmas for me? Well Christopher will make it a very happy one. Elizabeth's
sisters are here and so is her Dad so we should all have a good time.
We'll visit my mum in hospital in the morning, have fun with the little
lad for the rest of the day and in the evening it'll be games time. It was
Articulate last year. Probably get a couple of games of scrabble too! And maybe
a bet or two on the racing.
Doubt the TV will go on as it's the usual crap. The Vicar of Dibley,
EastEnders and I wish I was joking... The Two Ronnies. Oh brother.
The only thing we will have on is Noddy, Teletubbies and the lad's
favourite show 'Balamory' in which none of the actors can sing.
So yet again on the big day I shall have to put up with tuneless wailings
coming from the TV (and I'm not talking X-Factor).
But really what a load of crap on TV this year. Just The Sopranos, Curb
Your Enthusiasm, The Apprentice and Gordon Ramsay worth watching. I'm about to
ditch Sky TV. Not really worth having anymore.
I do hope you all have a lovely time - remember shares don't matter in the
end. What matters is friends and family. So turn off your screen forget about
money and the markets and revel in laughter, joy and fun. I love my little boy
so much, he often brings tears to my eyes. What on earth else matters eh?
Have been reading your site for over a year now I enjoy it so much, I
would be devastated if you ever stopped i enjoy your ramblings & common sense
idiot proof market knowledge please carry on!
Thanks Darren I'll do my best!
Jan writes: I can well imagine you feel guilty about not spending enough
time with your mother etc. It's totally normal and understandable. But don't
make any hasty decisions on giving up something that might well give you the
energy you need, rather than giving up something that is part of who you are.
The share is Trifast (TRI) and I bought 9,000 shares this morning at
77.75p. Target 98p Stop 68p. And I also topped that up with £100 spreadbet at
79p.
This is the kind of share I love. Strong profit growth, increased
dividends, and even better, a focussed management trying to grow the business.
It's not really attractive to private investors as it makes something that
appears a little dull: industrial fasteners! Not exactly something to set the
pulse racing is it?
However there appears to be a big demand out there and Trifast is building
its businesses by acquisition and increasing its international business. In fact
half its profits are generated overseas now.
The share price has been increasing day by day but I think the best is yet
to come - my initial target is 98p. I will take a look again then and if it
still looks good I'll probably top up at around that mark. Really looks quite
lovely and is a nice Xmas present to myself!!
Elsewhere seminar buy Domestic and General continues to boom! Thanks to
all of you who came to seminar for voting for me to buy it! Over 1200 today and
I still feel 1500 is a decent target.
Harvey Nash continues to look exciting as it breaks through 73 and I think
it could rise swiftly now to the low 80s. Also exciting is Dialight -
institutions will be starting to look at this one next year. Computer centre
continues to look strong after its break through 260.
Telecom Plus climbs again after some profit taking - looks a cert to
conquer the 200p level - £24m in the bank and no borrowings looks good to me!
Bit of a treeshake in Latchways. Am I bovvered? Nope! Nice £300 dividend
on the way early January! Diploma reaches yet more new heights, what a lovely
share - there was a good dividend too
Arrrgggghhh! Can't believe I sold Teesland two weeks ago and it's been bid
for today! Oh well, have to take that on the chin! My lovely real estate shares
continue to boom with Shaftesbury going extremely well.
I almost hope Universal Salvage goes down so I can sell at a loss and
proclaim: 'That share was rubbish!' However I think it should keep going!
Wednesday 19th December
Much as doing the site is enjoyable I really feel I need the rest and I'm
going to have a good break from the markets and recharge my batteries..I'll be
doing a little review of the year - my best ever - tomorrow. I am very grateful
for the profits this year.
They have really cemented my quit the rat race lifestyle and as I sit here
looking at the beautiful river with my gorgeous 2-year-old playing contentedly
with his fire engine in the background I feel extremely happy with my lot.
It's strange but brilliant being in London but also sitting in an office
where all I can see is the water, trees, ducks and swans.
The only thing marring my great feelings is my mother stuck in the
rehabilitation centre however nice it is. I have to try and visit her more but
the place is quite a way away and Christopher finds long car journeys difficult.
I hope we can move her into a fabulous place up the road where we can
visit her daily. It's taking some time to sink in that she will never walk
again. I don't think she realises it yet either. She was proudly and fiercely
independent.
I know it's awful these girls have been murdered but the Sky News coverage
has been just too over the top. Actually it makes for very dull viewing, there
are other things going on in the world I'd like to know about.
I'm also amazed the BBC released the names and details of the suspects and
even interviewed them - surely this could prejudice any trails? Doesn't look
like the first guy did it - he never really appeared to be the one.
Why these? The company makes money from insurance company writeoffs by
salvaging them (hence the name). Until recently the company was losing money but
is now turning a profit.
The shares don't appear to be that undervalued but what is attracting me
is recent volume over the last few days. I think this one could get taken out
and bid for - pure and utter speculation from me but that's the real reason I've
bought. And I don't think they are going to go down a lot even without a bid
story. We shall see.
I also bought a spreadbet for £20 a point in Computerland (CCC) at 258.
Target 290 stop 238. This buy is based on the fact the company's fortunes seem
to be on the up coupled with a chart breakout. It's been trading between 240 and
260 for a while and appears to be trying to get out of that range.
One profit take - I've sold a few Marchpole at 110 on the basis that they
are boring me silly - I know this isn't a great reason for selling but I've been
sitting on decent profits on these for ages. I'm still holding onto some.
For website purposes I am exiting the 18.33 position for a profit of £734
and the 16p position at a profit of £3,000. I retain the buy at the 13p level
and await the next statement with interest.
The shares got consolidated so I am using a rough price of 22p for the
sell which is around what it would be now in old money. If you have no idea what
the hell I am talking about, just trust me on this!
Domestic and General is the star of the day up 25 points - hopefully those
insurance policies are selling well. Been a nice one ever since I bought it live
at the last seminar.
My real estate potential takeover targets Savils and Shaftesbury continue
to rise well as does Charter. Oil services consolidate well at higher levels
with Petrofac and Sondex both strong.
Harvey Nash looks poised for a major breakout having short through 73p
this morning. Dialight still looks like lighting up, and Diploma is really going
for it now - looks like a good end to a brilliant year!Tuesday 19th December
If ever an MP could be asking for trouble in the Commons it's the Lib Dem
MP who one day might become leader and has a new girlfriend.
There is a problem for him though: isn't he going to have a few problems
with a girlfriend whose claim to fame was to have a pop single entitled 'Touch
My Bum'?
I'm sure you will see as many mistakes with my strategy and I can assure
you cant think I'm any bigger an idiot than I do of myself. It does however
illustrate the points you made in your book about new investors making most of
their mistakes in the first year despite all the good advice out there. I hope I
am now a bit wiser than I was before.
Thanks Dougie for being so honest. A good story. You must ignore the BB
chatter, everyone is posting because they want you to buy an illiquid share in
the hope it helps it to go up.
Try and concentrate more on good value mid caps, and try to stop buying
the penny shares because if you carry on buying them you will end up in the poor
house!! This is a great story to publish and thanks for sharing it. Good luck
with some hopefully better trading!!!
Also Victrex I've been in for a while and it hasn't really done that much,
spent a while there so have decided to sell into the recent strength closing at
820 today for a profit of £783. That's good enough for me for now. That's total
profits taken today for the website of £1,803. Nothing has tempted me into a buy
this last 24 hours.
Goodness - looks like I got into Dialight just at the right time, it is
really taking off and I have discovered who the big buyer is - Aberforth
Partners, known to have a shrewd investment team - looks like they agree with me
this share is going to be big in 2007.
They bought 267,900 shares lifting its holding to 16.53%. One suspects
they will be buying more soon. This share is going to be a bright star next
year!
Yet another decent contract win from Vanco announced today pushing the
price up. 435 remains resistance but the shares should revisit 500 early next
year especially if the shorters get bored.
At bloody last!! Havelock Europa is starting to show the sort of gains I
had always believed it should. It's been a long haul but it is now starting to
reward me and not before time!
Also going well today seminar pick Domestic and General, looks to be
heading up to the 1100 level. Diploma is starting to motor too along with TT
Electronics. Carclo doing its best to bust through the 100 level.
So on a down day, I feel the portfolio has held up rather well!Monday 18th December
And even a card from the company that serviced the car last week. And a
pot of mints. No wonder they charged me £500 for changing the oil and the water.
It's also the way each cartoon is adorned with a host of names - all of which
people I have never met. And honestly what is the point of that from an
execution broker?! You never have to talk to any of them...
They don't really count do they, corporate Xmas cards. In fact I'd rather
not get them at all - aren't they a complete waste of everyone's time and paper?
I chuck them straight in the bin.
And I'd like to thank all the shares that went up this year and boo sucks
to the bastard ones that went down (which luckily were hardly any).
Lovely weekend with Christopher meeting Santa twice. They got on well,
though the second santa looked a bit different to the first which was odd. Maybe
one of them was an imposter?
We also saw a panto with Christopher. Oh yes we did! He got a bit bored
after a while. Oh no he didn't! Great to see the look on his face during all
these events.
I don't think she realises this yet and so for the moment perhaps it is best to
keep this from her while she is where she is. I have found a wonderful home
close to where we all live, it's £45k a year but looks like it will be worth
every penny.
My mum is very sociable and needs people around her and my feeling is this
is much better than staying at home with just 2 nurses for company. She would
need 2 nurses there just to get her from bed to toilet. I really hope we can
make her last years on the planet as pleasant as we can. I'll do my best.
happen
Hi Tom!! I have the feeling you are looking at the share price after hours
when the spread has widening simply because the market makers are closed and as
such I don't think you need worry! In fact don't even look at prices before 8am
and after 4.30pm as they are meaningless!
The share is Dialight (DIA) and I picked up 3,000 shares this morning at
230p. Target . And a further 2,000 shares at 233.75p. Target 400p, stop 195. I'm
hoping the share will light up 2007 for me (gettit?).
It's been going up steadily over the last few days and is leaping up again
today on some buyers coming in (a couple of 140,000 trades gone in there this
morning).
Light bulbs will become a thing of the past I believe in the future and
everyone will be turning to LED. LED lasts 9-10 years and uses much less power
than light bulbs.
I think this one is a find - a bit like finding Csr or Wolfson early on
which is why I am taking a longer-term view of these. Perhaps they might even be
a 2 year hold, we shall see.
As I said on Friday, I was unsure about the Daejan statement. but I'd sell
if the shares started to go down... which I did, one second they were 6650, the
next 6620!
So I took profits Friday afternoon selling the 95 shares at 6237.5 to make
a quick profit of £1,062 and the 100 shares at 6218.9 to make a profit of £144,
total profit from Daejan was £1,206.
Just as well as this morning they are trading at 5550 or so - I might be
tempted to get back in if they drop back to 5100ish.
Costain! What a pig's ear of a statement, honestly. I used to love this
company and have made a fortune from it since 1999, profits of around £50,000.
However today's warning looked really horrible - for me too much negative going
on for the moment.
They opened up at 45p and lucky for me climbed to 52p where I got out for
a loss of £965. I can't see how anyone could buy this now because who knows what
on earth they will come up with next.
Lovely statement from Petrofac has lifted the price and really there is
plenty more to come. Great story, great share, great hold!
Vislink's having trouble breaking up through 100p again. But I am still
confident. I reckon they could do profits of 14-17m and at the very least it'll
be 12m so can't see how they could be worth less than 95p and on that basis I am
not taking profits yet! Might sound simplistic but then I an a simple type of
guy...
Harvey Nash is once more poised at 73p. Just needs to crack through this
point where there is the odd seller for a quick more to 80p. I think I'll get
there.
Seminar buys Domestic and General and Carclo are consolidating at higher
levels and I expect a push up for both in good time. Carter and Carter moves up
again - time it changed to Carter was one of the Carter's has buggered off!
Mouchel and Charter both steaming up today so again a very nice day indeed.Friday 15th December
There are so many stories I'm sure you'd like to hear but of course I
can't tell you. The one I always wonder about is the newsreader that I've met a
few times who has what can only be described as thick bush of hair cascading out
of his nostrils.
He really needs to buy a hedge trimmer. Someone has to tell him obviously
no-one has - you can't, can you? But it doesn't show on screen. Just as well.
Easy to tell we're a household with a two-year-old - one look at the
Christmas tree tells its own story. The decorations start half way up the tree.
This is because any bauble within reach is immediately grabbed and hurled across
the room.
Christopher is obsessed with my office chair and loves climbing up on it,
hand on my mouse trying to make a trade. At least for now he's stopped grabbing
the mouse, running to the loo and hurling it down there. I have two back ups.
Mouse bill for the year? £145.20. At least I can claim it against tax...
Off to my big sister for Sunday lunch on Saturday (well it's a funny time
of the year). As usual she will regale us with tales of all the stars she's been
talking to - (she runs four west end theatres and gets the top US stars to come
over here to do some live acting). She has one very big one lined up for next
year - looking forwards to seeing that show at one of her theatres.
Apologies for a late reported trade (sorry- forgot!) - I sold my
short-term Charter - 1,000 shares at 894.25 on the 13th. Profit on that is £479.
I hold on to the other Charter shares I have and my large spreadbet in them too.
Recent buys are going especially well. I'm already 10% up on Carclo but no
temptation to take profits as I think 120 is an easy target with the company in
recovery.
This week's buy Harvey Nash is also showing a good profit already. The big
question is: Can it get through 73p? If it can, I shall be buying more.
Real estate shares continue to prosper with Savills especially doing the
business for me today as is Shaftesbury. My fave sector oil services is still
drilling up support and Petrofac looks on the verge of a major breakout as does
Hunting. Sondex looks strong too.
Renold pauses for breath which is fine. Croda (my biggest spread bet) is
tantalisingly sitting just past 600. Could go steeply from there if it can hold
above.
Nice big rise for TT Electronics today with profits looking good there
now. Havelock Europa continues to improve (at last I'm getting a decent
profit!).
Telecom Plus may need a few attempts to crack 200p. Was rated a buy in the
Investors Chronicle today for most of the same reasons I outlined the other day.Thursday 14th December
Near where I live 4 restaurants have gone out of business. Why? Because
they serve rubbish or over complicated food. But last night we went to a
restaurant in Putney. Good, simple, lovely dishes at reasonable prices.
An amazing pasta dish to start (their signature) - I then had the most
beautifully cooked belly of pork with cabbage and beetroot. Divine - melt in the
mouth.
Elizabeth had some wonderful scallops - the pudding was also sensational
as was the coffee. Service was just right, not too creepy. No expensive 'water
for the table' was sought after either.
Really, ten out of ten. We shall become regulars there and congrats to the
owners. They really do not need a visit from Gordon Ramsay!!
And if they're bothered about it they are not worthy of being friends are
they? Looks like it'll have to be e-mails from me instead...
Elizabeth has been frantically writing some so I'm hoping she's written my
name in them too. That should get me off the hook.
As for presents, I'm vouchers guy! Like most blokes I really hate shopping
and prefer sticking vouchers in envelopes so people can get what they want in
the sales.
The share is Carclo. (CAR) I've been eyeing this one up for a couple of
months and after discussing it on Friday at the seminar at last got tempted in
yesterday when I bought 5,000 shares at 89p and another 4,500 shares at 90.76.
Target for both 130, stop 78.
I think it's another decent recovery play, similar in a way to Renold and
I went through it in detail at the seminar. From being a loss-maker, its
fortunes are being transformed and its profits have doubled albeit from a small
base. Margins are increasing and management seem confident of turning things
around. I shall watch progress with interest.
Elsewhere Renold continues amazing progress and think 150 looks gettable
and quite quickly which would mean I would have doubled on the first buy at 75p.
I've talked about this one an awful lot and I'm already up more than £10k.
But this brilliant recovery play has more to come with Hanover International
really making a difference.
Telecom Plus adds to its good gains of yesterday with buy write ups in two
of the broadsheets. If it can conquer 200 again, 220 should be the next stop.
Recent buy Harvey Nash inches up again. 73p should offer tough resistance but if
it gets through that clear sky till 80p.
Can't make head or tail of the Daejan results and nor can anyone else it
seems judging by the reaction. I think the sensible thing for me is to hold but
take profits if it starts to drop.
Great trading statement from Hunting, what a winner this has been. Scott
Wilson is really repaying my patience now and storming higher. Charter and Croda
are both on fire to make it another lovely day. Just need an Xmas rally now to
add the cream to it! Wendesday 13th December
I like to compare what Ramsay does to food to shares. Last night he
explained to a good chef why he wasn't going to win a Michelin star because
although talented, he overdid it and complicated his food with too many flavours
and garnishes.
Exactly what some investors who could be good do with shares. They buy too
many systems, programmes, chart packages, software... and then wonder why
they're not making as much money as they could be. Keep it simple, my view is
junk the lot! One screen is enough!
Anyhow as usual the show makes me starving hungry and I dashed to the
kitchen for a big bowl of Frosties desperate to get come down me. Filled the
bowl, stuck in the milk and headed out of the kitchen.
Thing is I'd dropped a few Frosties on the floor. I mouthed a Ramsay
styled expletive and with what I thought was a deft kick worthy of Wayne Rooney,
I kicked the fallen Frosties under the fridge!
Unfortunately for me Mrs NT happened to come in at just that point and
caught me in the act! Lucky for me she's a laugh.. 'Caught you red handed!' she
said. This is true! We both laughed about it.
I explained later men are hunter gatherers and when we want some food we
need to have it right here right now and sod the mess.
By the way, I think the Frosties are still there (don't tell the Mrs) -
cleaner's due on Saturday anyway... I've got more important things to do..
Mum is starting to look a lot better which is great. Got a dentist down
there to sort out her dentures. She's even starting to eat real food again and
she ate some of Christopher's lunch when we took him to see her. He makes all
the old ladies eyes light up, it's great to see! He is back to normal now after
his measles jab thank goodness.
Especially the place my mum is in. Excellent facilities but half the beds
are empty because of 'lack of money'. And they may have to close most of it
down. What's that about?
And the other hospitals are a chaotic mess as far as I can see with not
enough staff (who are all excellent) and too many overpaid penpushers.
Blair also said in PMQ's today when questioned over Iraq that 'We had to
remove Saddam.
Hang on I thought we'd gone in there to fight because they had loads of
weapons and we were all about to be attacked! This proved a giant lie.
How he carries on getting away with all the crap he talks is beyond me.
The other lot aren't much better either. As for Ming Campbell's performances,
dear oh dear, the lib dems do not stand an earthy chance in the next election.
So profits are: £1,651 on the 652.8 position and £2,350 on the 611.9
position. Plus a massive £4,340 profit on the spreadbet which gives a total
giant profit in just under four months of.... £8,341. (tax free)
So cheers all round and the sparkling wine on me!. It's always great when
a trade works as well as this.. I feel I bought at the right time, topped up at
the right time and I'm profit taking at the right time. Thanks Keller - I may be
back!
Now to the buys: First made yesterday afternoon is Harvey Nash (HVN). I
discussed this one at the seminar - it's been on my radar and hadn't been
expecting to buy but a rise in the afternoon spurred me into a buy.
I bought a total of 18,000 shares at 65p yesterday afternoon.. (10,000
then 8,000). I only just missed getting 63p but that's life,
Why? Recruitment companies generally have a low rating but sitting on just
ten times profits with a big expansion going on looks too low and I feel there
could be a decent run-up before the next results.
Harvey is expanding by acquisition in Europe and also recently opened a
Scottish office - I noticed the other week in the Sunday Times recruitment
section it had the front page ad.
It last peaked in the mid 70s and I think it could get there easily
enough. The question is can it go through there? If it can it could get back
into the 80s.
Before I mention the next buy, please remember I have been a distributor
for this company since 1998 and therefore you must realise I have positive
feelings/emotional commitment so you must bear that in mind when reading
anything written by me about Telecom Plus (TEP). I also have a large number of
share options at much lower prices so again bear that in mind.
However, I believe I would have bought in without that commitment. When I
saw the results at 7am I thought the market makers would mark it up 20p at
least. With the company saying a return to the sort of profits it used to make
and more 160p looked way too low.
Blow me down at 8am the shares were hardly marked up at all and I got
2,500 shares at 161.96 and a £50 spreadbet long at 165.
I suspect (though I don't know) the directors bought those 50,000, 40,000
and 30,000 chunks early - they have a habit of buying on results day and that
would be good news for the price tomorrow if those buys are announced. Complete
guesswork on my part!
The new broadband package is not surprising selling like hot cakes (see my
piece above) and energy customers are now profit-making. A company which looks
in top recovery mode from troubled times last year. I am now extremely happy
with the shares I bought at 104 and I am up nearly £3,000 on those now.
Elsewhere the Santa rally appears to be already going. I hope 'Evil
Knievel' (colourful character who shorts stocks but gets many wrong) has taken
his loss on his Vanco short because the shares are back in a major uptrend.
My second biggest holding Renold motors up once again today. What an
excellent share with my buys at 75, 85 and 101 looking rather good with the
price pushing 130!
Domestic and General (seminar pick) holds onto its gains well and could go
higher still. Sondex has really been piling it on and is looking very good now.
Mouchel Parkman up yet again today - glad I topped up on Monday and this
fantastic share continues to produce huge returns for me.
Daejan is down a touch today. First time for a long time it's shown red,
and a classic market maker tree shake, I'd be surprised if it didn't end up blue
before the end of trade today. I expect it to motor still higher in time.
Shaftesbury is resuming its upwards trend. And so is Diploma - glad I
bought on the ex dividend dip. Dyson hold recent gains well too. Charter, Croda
and Collins Stewart all making big gains today.
I'm very happy I now have the special 30p Latchways dividend in the bag. I
should get around £300 paid out in early January which is lovely especially as
the share price hasn't budged much. To to sum up another great week to cap a
sensational year of gains for me, my best ever.Tuesday 12th December
We all know that hypocrite Blair never gave his kids the MMR and my lovely
boy is not going to be put at risk, however slight.
Let's face it we all know the MMR has damaged some kids. I'm told
Christopher's reaction to the jab is normal for 3% of kids so we are OK.
I suppose he is having a kind of mini measles. He was rolling around in a
bit of distress on Sunday and I had a bad day feeling bad for him. He's better
today thank goodness. My big sister reckons we shouldn't have got him done. She
points out we all had measles and all the rest of it.
Many investors just can't do it for some reason. But for me - well, I
think if you have a good one, buy more even if the price has gone up!
So here I go again. I bought another 100 shares Daejan yesterday afternoon
(DJAN) at 6074 - despite the fact I already bought some nearly 900 points lower
the other day. Why - aren't I worried it might fall? Actually not really.
I also topped up in one of my long-running favourites Mouchel Parkman(MCHL)
. What a lovely share! I bought a further bundle in a spreadbet for £30 a point
yesterday afternoon at 429.
Another excellent day! Another good move up from Friday's seminar buy
Domestic and General, looks like it'll hit 1100 soon. I'll have another look
then but I think it should get to 1200 before profit-takers hit.
Bluebay is the star of the day - my buy of this new full market issue at
350ish now looks good with the shares heading up and over 400p. I'm not going to
be too greedy here and thinking of taking profits at 450ish.
Vislink and other smaller shares have gone SETS/MM today - actually quite
surprised that the spreads have stayed tight and it's not made a lot of
difference. Though Latchways has a bigger spread than normal.
Vislink announced yet another contract win today. Looking forwards to the
next statement and hoping for a run up before it. Diploma heads up again after
going ex div and Sondex has climbed back over the 300p mark again.
Elsewhere other big risers are holding onto their recent gains well. Real
estate is down a little today but I'm not worried about that just yet.Monday 11th December
Bizarrely I hate what the company does. It provides those extended
warranty insurances for electrical goods and also insurances for central heating
boilers. I reckon these insurances are a waste of money but that's also good
news because I also think the mark-ups are enormous!
The company even says claim rates are very low and I believe with all
those new flat screen TV's that have been sold this year the company is making
good money. The last statement was very positive, and has the usual I am looking
for: increased profits and dividends.
So I think DGG has a lot further upside and I am a happy buyer. Thanks to
all those at the seminar who voted it the best share on the shortlist!
This is a recovery story in the making, albeit riskier than my normal
investment activity. It is just about within the bottom of my low risk strategy.
It's a chemicals company that had a torrid time last year, ending in
losses. But I really like the recent statement which shows management has really
got a handle on the company which is now back in profit.
The statement re-iterated the company feels it is now going places and
this could be the early stages of an excellent recovery to around the 300p level
- at least I hope so. I am also encouraged by what has been some decent big
buyers over the last few days including what must be some institutional
interest.
Some sales to report. I sold Teesland today for 114.3 to take profits of
£247. Still looks good but I've got fed up with waiting for it to move - so may
get back in when it does!
With the Xmas rally likely to kick in and knowing I was working on Friday,
I closed out my last remaining shorts on Thursday.
Johnson Matthey short 7 at 1408 closed at 1364 on Thursday for a profit of
£308 and Provident Financial closed at 661 for a loss of £200.
Elsewhere it's been another brilliant few days for me with Renold being
the big star. Now my second biggest holding I'm very happy with the rise. Not
remotely tempted to take profits yet as I feel I have more profits to come.
My last buy Daejan has absolutely rocketed since I bought. This is due
according to press reports of entry into the FTSE 250 and funds finding it hard
to get shares which has caused a squeeze. Here's hoping for more squeeze though
sadly market-makers have widened the spread.
Also extremely happy to see Croda hit 600p - this is my biggest spreadbet
holding - once through there I'm hoping for another 50 points before taking the
profits. So many other good risers I haven't got time to mention them all
Telecom Plus rises confidently before results this week which should be
interesting, a lot rests on how much the new dividend will be as the company
should become a high yielder with steady growth.
Scott Wilson has rewarded my patience with some dramatic rises. Same
comment to Havelock Eurpoa. Boy I have really had to be patient with those but I
knew value would come out eventually.
Real estate continues to perform. Shaftesbury produced great results today
with an excellent rise in NAV. Recent buy Carter and Carter has stormed over
1000 and just kept going - absolutely lovely!! And another recent buy new issue
Bluebay has stormed higher too - making an excellent profit on that one now.
Oil services all rising as well, Petrofac, Hunting and Sondex. Also up is
the brilliant Latchways performing really well. Also good old Mouchel.
In fact I don't have one disappointing one in the portfolio and it's up by
thousands of pounds today. I am one happy chap!
Wendesday 6th December
However I do promise full updates through to Xmas although the site will
take a well-earned break between Xmas and the new year.
Oh by the way looks like we may have to stump up an extra £35,000 for John
Prescott before he goes. Talk about milking it till the last minute!
If you happen to see the head chef and he /she is well below thirty forget
it. Unless he or she is a genius ( there aren't that many geniuses about ) they
will not have the necessary skills to pull this off successfully.
The catering industry is a low pay industry compared to most other
industries and therefore most businesses suffer huge staff turnover with a
direct impact that has on quality and consistency!
Lastly, it has to be said, from my own experience with
friends/acquaintances, the Brits don't like spending money on food.
Ben I think you are right, we are getting the rubbish food we deserve!
This one was mentioned on my forum on advfn by poster MT Glass so thanks
to him for chatting about it. After some research it looked like a lovely buy
and undervalued.
I bought when it was already up 5% but even so I think there is plenty of
mileage. Excellent results last time and looks a cracking company though it
could really do with a share split.
Elsewhere a brilliant day. Recent buy Shaftesbury goes well though recent
buy Halfords doesn't thanks to a placing at the current price. However I will
stay in for now unless it drifts a lot lower as it looks a strong company. Real
estate still goes well with Qintain holding recent gains and Savills heading
higher.
Vislink, Creston and Latchways should all get promoted into the Smallcap
index tomorrow which is good news. Vislink is going very well today. Also on the
up is Vanco which looks like it's about to break up again.
One of the best winners today is recent buy Carter and Carter which is
shooting up. Also roaring higher is Hunting which has improved nearly 60p in a
few days. The oil services sector looks like it is due another run with Sondex
also benefiting.
Surprised Havelock hasn't shot up today on extra school spending, maybe
people will take time to realise this is the company that will be benefitting!
Dragon Oil again moves up. and Keller looks strong again.
Tuesday 4th December
Meanwhile I wasn't due to meet Laurent till later so I had till 4pm on my
own. So I got some sleep and then had a walk around.
I ended up at a McDonalds (two branches within yards of each other) near
the station and sat outside with a Big Mac and a coffee watching the world go
by.
As I walked back to the hotel I began to get the usual Mac 'kickback' -
you know what I mean and probably why I only have one a year! The Hilton Hotel
in Milan is rubbish by the way. The breakfast was horrible. Service hopeless.
Anyway I took a cab later to meet Laurent at the much nicer Hotel. Laurent
who I met via the website is an options trader. He's very good and a lovely man
to boot - always good company! We talked for a couple of hours over coffee and
snacks. if I could buy shares in Prada I would. Every ten minutes or so another
woman would come by with Prada bags.
Elizabeth and Nathalie then arrived with their designed bags. They'd
bought assorted boots and bags. Why they can't stick to one bag like us blokes
and need 15 I don't know. Something to do with they go out of fashion fast
apparently!
We then stayed at that hotel for a fantastic meal. Really excellent! Don't
ask about the price but let me say a small bottle of coke was 8 Euros!! After a
lovely evening with Laurent and Nathalie they gave us a lift back to the Hilton
and drove back to Switzerland. No stamp duty on shares or capital gains tax
there you know!
We didn't get to bed till late and the next morning... 8am bang bang on
the door and in walked 'Housekeeping'. They got shouted at as you can imagine
and Elizabeth rang reception.
'I have to get up at 6am most mornings,' she said. 'This was my one chance of a
lie in'.
What sort of hotel bangs on doors at 8am on Sundays? A crap one! Anyway we
had one more look round Milan and then back to the airport.
'I'm afraid there is likely to be a lot of turbulence on this flight,'
said the captain. 'Keep your belts fastened all the way and I'll try not to make
the landing too bumpy.'
Which of course immediately put the s**** up all the passengers especially
me who isn't a fan of flying. I gripped my seat and tried to be brave and would
you believe it it was pretty much a smooth flight. Silly b****** of a captain!
Looks another real estate cracker this to go along with my others Quintain
and Savills. Others seem to be finding it too as it's up another 10p so far
today.
Looks another possible takeover target in what could be the next three
months of consolidation in the sector and in any event the company is going
well. Looks a no brainer to me!
And I went back into Halfords today (HFD) buying 1,500 shares at 364.92p.
Target 400 stop 330. A whole load of stakebuilding is going on here and I wish I
had not taken profits a few days ago. But I think it is worth getting back in
again. The company is doing really well and the stakebuilding could well mean
something. I think is is worth a shot anyhow..
A whole host of things going well today, of course Quintain being the real
star, I'm now up 110 points - wish I'd gone in a bit bigger. Plenty of bid
speculation in the press.
Some of the portfolio that's been a bit lacklustre are shining today -
these include Scott Wilson, Charter, TT, Keller. Carter and Carter blossoms
quite nicely and could head up to 1000 or more.
Two faves Vislink and Renold look to be pausing for breath. Vislink should
be promoted this week. The Johnson Matthey short goes well but thinking of
profit taking.
Monday 4th December
So as is typical with sod's law that statement proved to be completely
wrong and in fact we turned out to be on the flight from hell.!
After half an hour waiting patiently for take off the captain told us
because of problems at Heathrow our baggage wasn't even loaded on the plane yet
and would take '15 minutes.' Which turned out to be another 30 minutes. So one
hour extra on the ground already.
Then the Captain said: 'I'm afraid we are now in a long queue waiting for
takeoff and will be on the stand for 20 minutes.'
In the end we took off nearly two hours late! And from the moment we took
off the plane started shaking around. I thought maybe I just won't go on holiday
ever again, it's just too much hassle! The turbulence throughout was horrible.
So shaken and somewhat stirred we arrived in Milan after sitting in a
plane for nearly 4 hours! Tried to find out the best way to get to the hotel
only to discover really completely unhelpful staff. Wasn't just us.
Anyway we ended up waiting for a train to be told there was a train strike
so we got loaded onto replacement buses. To cut a long story short we arrived at
The Hilton in Milan tired and hungry and got to our room at 11.30pm.
Grabbed the room service menu to order food, only to be told 'The chef had
gone home' because we missed the cut off time by five minutes. The 'overnight'
menu had a salad and a turkey sandwich on it which an hour later we got.
The 'turkey' is the kind of horrible stuff I feed the cat, the bread was
stale and the salad horrible, and oh yes that'll be 50 Euros please! So it ended
up being the day from hell. Luckily the rest of the holiday ended up being
really excellent!!
And I'll tell you all about it tomorrow as I'm a bit short of time to write much
more of a re-amble ramble this morning.
My mum's getting a bit better although she is still not in great shape.
The good thing is because she is in a get better home rather than a hospital we
can take Christopher to see her and that really lights up her face even though
she can't talk for now.
It really is great taking him there even though he spends most of the time
running off with zimmer frames and wheeling wheelchairs around!
Griffo, The rule is simply you can put in 7k a year. If you bought a share
7k and you sold it for say a 1k loss and you had 6k left, you can then re-invest
the 6k if you like.
Andrew writes: First off I'd like to say thank you for keeping your
excellent website going, it's a source of inspiration. Your plain speaking is a
godsend to a simpleton like me!
Andrew - no need to gulp, no question is ever too simple when it comes to
the stock market! It normally means one market maker has a decent sized order to
fill and therefore has to buy stock off other MM's. Usually means there is a
general stock shortage and it usually means the share bounces short-term at
least!!
As regular readers know I am always happy to top up on good shares even
though I have to pay a lot more for them than I did initially. Therefore on
Thursday I bought more Renold (RNO) buying 7,000 shares at 101.5. Target 150
stop 88. This is despite already buying them at 75p and 90p.
The other top up was in Diploma (DPLM) on Wednesday afternoon. I hadn't
intended buying any more really but could not resist it.
Great news from two of my favourites today: Creston and VP! Both up
sharply which these days on a results day is pretty good going, as most shares
on results days this year seem to go down whether good or not as people take
profits.
Both companies reported an excellent rise in profits and both have great
outlooks. I am toying with the idea of buying more in each and both look very
strong holds for me and I remain a long-term shareholder of both. I would almost
certainly buy more VP if they come back a bit today or in the next few days.
Plenty of other good risers for me since I've been away. Quintain Estates
in particular are up nearly 100p since I bought just a few days ago. Very happy
with that although I am thinking of taking profits quite soon if the rise
continues.
Monday 25th November
Re Mr Bond's lady in this one: all I kept thinking was.. just how much
cow's bits and pieces has gone into her lips? And some of the action chases
scenes were a bit overlong and could have done with a bit of cutting. And the
theme song was dreary. Apart from that a good effort!
I don't know about you but I'm sick of the prices cinemas charge for ice
cream etc. Amazing price! said one sign. Popcorn and two bottles of water for
£7.80! Yes, an amazing price all right! My tip is get eatables from the local
shop before going into the cinema.
However I am unlike a lot of investors prepared to swallow my pride and
get back in at a much higher price because this fabulous little company could
easily zip up another 300 points.
It has an amazing niche market in safety equipment, has tons of cash and
can grow without touching that cash and on top of that it is so confident it's
paying a special 30p dividend next month. It all looks cracking and I am back in
buying 450 Latchways (LTC) shares today at 1150. Target 1450, stop 850.
It's also looking dynamite in a terrible market today which adds to my
confidence. Going to be a real winner I think. Downside is the amazing lack of
market makers in this one which means it can be volatile and liable to big
treeshakes but one I shall stick with.
Two of mine reported today, one excellent and one just OK - and I sold
them both! Let's do the good first! A superb statement from HYD - results well
ahead of expectations. Looks like this company has a great future.
If the shares had just gone up say 10p today on that I would have held on.
However the giant leap of 35p proved too much for me and I suspect a few others
and a 15% gain in two weeks was too good not to grab - especially as the shares
had already gone 15p over target. So I sold my 1,000 shares for 405.89p for a
nice quick profit of £510.
Now to the not so great - the report from MSI International. Honestly I
really tried hard to be patient here and the company seemed likely to deliver.
But today's report was just OK.
So with the view there is no point tying up capital here I sold at 175 to
take a loss of £619 on my positions. I tried to get out at a much higher price
early on but it was next to impossible to get them sold so I had to take the
much lower price. Disappointing all round!
I also sold Weir for 532 for a profit of £531. It's had a really good run
- I nearly sold Thursday and Friday but gave it a chance to run some more but
it's been looking weak. However I would get back in again at any significant
drop. That means banked profits for the site today of £422.
Elsewhere plenty of market maker markdowns today - it's a good day to note
anything performing well in your portfolio today.. anything that is is worth
holding onto! Among those for me are Keller and Abacus both go well in the face
of a weak market.
So too Vislink - only down a touch in reality. And Creston stays level as
does Carter and Carter and Renold - good signs. MMC looks a bit stronger and
will stay with it for now unless it hits stop loss levels.
Dragon Oil continues with its recent rises. I'd be surprised if something
wasn't coming here and there is more buying today despite the weak market.
Scott Wilson is on the rise after a good contract win was announced - a
sleepy share that one day will wake up bigtime - worth holding for that time!
My shorts are going very well now - the Prudential short is now in good
profit. RightMove continues to look weak and I hope that one will really tank!
De La Rue too looking weak and all the shorts help to protect the long side of
the portfolio a bit.
Csr is down with the market and at stop levels - given the volatility it
is being allowed a small amount of slack but not much and I'll dump on any
further weakness. Petrofac, Hunting and Charter all weak in line with a weak
FTSE250 but I still like all 3 and will stick with them for now.
It's likely to remain a tricky and sticky market for the next couple of
weeks but it should set us up nicely for an Xmas rally....Friday 24th November
He is just amazing at going to bed. We only have to say 'bed' and he walks
straight there and asks to go in! I am of course asking for trouble by writing
that smug sentence because next week no doubt he will turn into the toddler from
hell..
My aged cat suddenly seems to have developed a bald patch round her neck.
I was wondering whether to taker her to the vet. Of course she is scratching at
it to make things worse and more hair is coming out. Any vets out there know
whether it's serious or nothing to worry about? She's not in pain or anything.
My mum is moving today back to the rehabilitation centre she loves so
much. Thank goodness. It'll really give her a boost. She is slowly regaining the
power of speech and is working hard and the physiotherapy.
And with such a strong portfolio, despite the market falls I have actually
made quite a bit this week thanks to some big winners: Renold and Dragon Oil in
particular.
And it might surprise you to know I bought something today! Call me a
bloody fool (You bloody fool! - ED) but I bought 600 shares in Carter And Carter
(CART) at 913.98. Target 1100 stop 845.
This looks like a great company that is really going places by growing
organically and by acquisition. While some of its growth is priced in I think
there may be another 150-200 there. The strength it shows today in a poopy
market is another plus and I feel it's a worthy addition to the portfolio.
I just wish I'd bought in at 500p at the beginning of the year - but I
didn't so no point moaning about it - I 'll just try and take the bit more
that's there.
I've added another short - that's in De La Rue (DLAR) for £15 at 624.
Target 590 stop 635. It's been a good performer this year but think it will head
southwards rapidly if the market falls some more.
So not so bad a day for me. Indeed I can even muster one or two risers.
Mouchel is always solid on a day like this and goes up.
Renold continues its excellent rise from yesterday. And Dragon holds most
of its spectacular gains yesterday. Be surprised if there wasn't an interesting
statement soon!
My shorts obviously go well - especially Rightmove which is now sitting in
a good profit with more to come. Yesterday's short Prudential goes well too - I
am treating these as short-term trades to profit from what I think will be a
short-term downmove.
The worst faller for me today is Charter - nothing wrong with the company,
it is mirroring falls in the FTSE 250 and a few worries about the weak dollar.
It's a great company and will bounce back. Same comment to Hunting.
But most of the portfolio holds pretty well with only small falls for the
moment. A lot of things remain unchanged too. So for the moment I remain pretty
cool about this week. That's not to say I'm not vigilant and it may be necessary
to sell off things. But not just yet. Thursday 23nd November
Time really for this to be cut to two years. Surely in this day and age
it's silly for the 95% of us that are completely straight with our tax to have
to store ancient bits of paper?
And it really is time for stamp duty to be cut from shares. Fat chance eh,
even though it makes our market uncompetitive.
I'm not quite sure how Christopher manages to play with three fire engines
at the same time but I guess it's good. Shows he should be able to juggle lots
of things at the same time when he gets older!
Can you explain your train of thought on PAG. You bought @ 649.85 with
target of 690. You then sold this @ 631.54 though your SL was 630 - that doesn't
make any sense to me.
Thank you Frank, you are right. As I more or less said I wasn't happy
with the way I handled those trades but sometimes even after years of trading
and trying to be disciplined, you break your own rules! It was a combination of
tiredness and bad decision making. And that's it! Mea Culpa!
Grant writes: Bought 1000 Petrofac on 1/9 at 316P and because I listened
to your advice on not being too greedy, sold yesterday when it hit your target
of 380P. Pity you did not follow your own wise words!
Thanks for teaching me to sell.
It may be time to get back into CSR, at least short-term. It is showing
pretty good strength and I've bought 800 shares at 710.99. Target 750 stop 690.
Renold (RNO) reported this morning and I topped up on the early morning
profit-taking dip and added to my buy at 75p with a new one - 4,000 shares at
90.42p. Target 120, stop 80
Looks like Private Investors took fright for no reason other than the
market-makers marked down and sold. But then in come some big buyers and the
price is already going back up. I think those selling were wrong.
Directors believe Renold is going one way only, and that's up with some
decent director buying reported this morning in record time. In fact it seems
the directors just couldn't wait to buy as soon they could after the closed
period. Should be a delightful steady mover through 100 and then upwards.
I also added a new short - in Prudential (PRU) for £12 at 674. Target 640
Stop 690. This is just to give me a bit of downside exposure should the market
sink. It's had a good run and likely to be hit in any short-term downturn.
OK, to sells! As I signalled yesterday I sold Workspace for 449.47 to take
profits of £354. It's struggling to go further in this area so I've cut and run!
Could be too early but more of a gut feeling than anything solid on this one.
Carphone Warehouse has been disconnected for now at 283 for a loss of £99
on the 287 position and a profit of £2,142 on the 214 position. I think their
business plan is sound but the market is short-term negative so it's time to
quit.
Also gone is Big Yellow, sold at 555.37p for a profit of £734. Results
today look good with plenty of expansion planned but on the face of it the value
of the company looks to be up with events for now.
That takes total profits banked for the site today of £3,131. Phew, it's
taken me bloody ages to write all that and I'm knackered.
So just a quick note of some movement today in the portfolio. The good
news is there are a decent number of shares rising in the falling market and I'm
not suffering any major falls. if anything I think I'm slightly up on the day.
Good old Vislink always helps, now looks like breaking out bigtime and I
guess it would be up even more on a good day.
Dragon Oil gets the star award of the day. Plenty of good volume sees it up ten
points. Bid coming?
Also up nearly 4% today is Havelock Europa - it's been a slightly painful
wait for this one but value outs eventually and this should be at least 20
points higher.
Celsis too up nicely and tackling 200p again. Vanco looks like it's
bottoming out, a new rise will see new buyers and should force the rest of the
shorters out! Also up is Croda and Creston. Creston about to enter the FTSE
Smallcap which should see some more rises.
MS International goes up again and joining risers too are TT Electronics,
Weir and Petrofac. So I really have nothing to complain about with the FTSE down
45p! Wednesday 22nd November
The decor was nice and there was a sign up. 'We price ourselves on the
quality of our food.' And another one. 'We don't do fast food - just good food
as fast as we can.'
As is often the case with signs like this, pretty much take the opposite
and that's what you get. We ordered very simple stuff: chops for me and a
chickenburger for Elizabeth with Christopher sharing.
There was hardly anyone else in. We waited and waited - no sign of any
food. And we waited some more. Eventually someone came over, apologized and
offered free drinks. Then we waited again.
By this time little Christopher our 2-year-old was so desperate he toddled
over to the kitchen counter, looked up and said 'Food!' 'Food!'
He then started crying and I was just about to go into the kitchen to
offer to cook it myself when the food arrived. No wonder it took so long.
The chops were so overcooked their only use was as a doorstop. The chicken
burger was so dry it was almost inedible too. Just as well there were some chips
so we had something to eat. Christopher took a bite of the meat and went 'Yukky!'
which sums it up well.
I don't expect that much from pub grub but I just don't understand how a
'chef' could possible cook such simple food so badly. Why are they a chef when
they obviously aren't interested in food? I'm sure now this would happen at any
chain of this pub.
There was a sign up saying 'Comments welcome to any of the team'. The chef
I noticed was extremely large and tall and quite honestly I didn't want to get
into a row about it. I'll write to the head office but doubt it'll make any
difference.
Last night we watched Ramsay's kitchen nightmares which always makes me
laugh - this time it was a pub run by a bloke who served terrible food. Ramsay
patiently showed him how to cook good old-fashioned British fare.
Ten minutes later I got back to the screen I could hardly believe my eyes
when I saw the shares had fallen to my stop loss of 630. So I sold my 800 shares
at 631.54 for a small loss of £140 .
I didn't really have my heart in it but with all the sales coming in I did
the unemotional thing. The shares sank another 10p to 620. I looked through the
results and fundamentally I just couldn't see why the shares were tanking so
badly. I thought the shares would almost certainly turn.
So I watched and waited on level 2 and managed to get in near the low
buying 1,000 new Paragon (PAG) shares at 620.35p. Target 720 stop 600.
Now, while pleased with the 620 buy I should almost certainly have held
onto the other shares too. However I took a decision on the spur of the moment
to protect capital. And sometimes you get things a bit wrong. It could be if The
Sun had held my attention for a bit longer I might have carried on holding the
previous position.
In retrospect I did not stick to my short-term share plan and sell Paragon
at 690 when I had the chance! So I've told myself off. Trade your plan, Burns
like you teach others! Anyhow it has since moved back over 650.
Moving on, it's a hesitant market all right - but still a bull one for
now. Savills up a nice 15p since I bought yesterday so happy with that -
more to come.
Bit of a stand off between the bulls and bears of Vanco! A little
profit-taking from those who bought in the same area as me. But I feel now we
know there was no reason to short Vanco the shares have another 50p to go. I
suspect after a little more downside it'll head higher.
Vislink is having a bit of a breather which it deserves. Just sitting
there and waiting for the next move up. I'm considering taking profits on
Workspace but not 100% sure just yet.
Mouchel as usual goes up! Havelock shows signs of stirring higher and MS
International looks like having a stab at 200p.
Dragon Oil has quietly slipped up 10p in the last 2 days. Worth holding
for bid prospects. My short in Rightmove is at lasty moving the right way! Hip
Hip Hurrah!!!
Tuesday 21th November
In fact there is a fire engine in every corner of the apartment. Which is
actually handy for if a burglar was to arrive in the night within a minute he's
have put his foot on one which would cause.. a fire alarm to go off!
Good news regarding my mother... doctors say she can be released this week
back to the fantastic rehabilitation centre that she really loves and wants to
be.
It's NHS but as good as a private.. which is probably why the Government
is trying to close it down.. (half of it closed already... could make a lot of
money as a new housing development).
Looking at their website the VANCO model saves companies almost 20% of
their IT costs - a substantial amount. Further they now have almost total global
reach, and with deals done very recently in the fast growing South African
economy (Business Connection Pty Ltd - South Africa) and that in Canada (Bell
Canada); AND their acquisition of Universal Access in the states.
It looks like the floor for the share is @3.77 (Directors buying), but
agree with your near term value of about £5.00. Additionally, I feel anyone
prepared to tuck this share away for a couple of years would not be
disappointed: VANCO must have one of the best, most efficient and ambitious
management teams I have ever come across.
Thanks for the mail Craig, I agree with your comments - you put them well!
Kelvin writes: I was looking at your ashes bets. I agree with you on
Strauss. He will love the fast bouncy pitches in aus. I think 490-510 would be
nearer the mark. I will also be buying his runs in Brisbane which is a batsmans
paradise.
Thanks for the views Kelvin - you could be right!
I have got a lot of estate companies and wasn't really intending to buy
any more but there was some massive volume in Savills early this morning and I
bought off the back of that.
The company's performing really well and there's no reason barring the
start of a new bear market why it shouldn't get back up to the 700 area.
Its statements look pretty bullish and on the back of the volume I
mentioned I'm happy to hop on at this point with 1-2 month view.
Last buy Vanco goes very well indeed today up 20 points. With a sudden 4%
of the shares shorted recently - I hear infamous bear raider Simon Cawkwell
called them a one way bet down at 380 so I would guess he and his fans are
responsible. At this point they will have to close out.. or take a risk and
short some more to try and get the price back down!
However with the statement I got from Vanco's head man showing the only
reason for shorting is in fact plainly wrong, I think the bulls will win.
Remember people like Mr C, however charismatic get an awful lot of things wrong
(Britvic short at 195 anybody?!) and the homework on this wasn't up to scratch.
I think it should go to 500p.
Abacus has sparked back into life and looks like it's going to make
another stab at 200p. Teesland after a quiet spell has woken up and goes well -
same comment to Renold attracting some good buying in the runup to results.
Sondex is soaring today - it was only a matter of time on this one. I
remain a long-term holder expecting a bid for this one over 400p from Petrofac
or Hunting next year. Marchpole heads back higher and Dragon Oil is back in play
with good volume building again - Burren going well too.
A classic treeshake in Creston this morning and just missed topping up at
192. They may do it again so could have another chance. And some desperate
shaking continues in Vislink but no-one is fooled, you may as well mark it up to
120p now chaps and save us all some time.
Rightmove, where I'm short is at last going lower - the company is way
overvalued, can't they see it?! Croda is back up to the 550p level - can
still see this one advancing to 600p given the right conditions.
Monday 20th November
Sadly the card wasn't deemed good enough for inclusion. Every time a card
was pulled up there was a glimmer of hope. Only to be cruelly dashed. 'Nice
card..' purred the presenter. Hah! So our card wasn't nice enough to be shown
then eh! Bastards!!
What was worse was my sister phoned to wish Christopher a happy birthday
and said: 'Oh you should have told me! I know the boss of C Beebies and could
have got the card on for you!' Of course I would never lower myself to pull
strings in such a fashion.. (yeah right). I forgot my sister knows everyone.
Well, I did suggest to Mrs NT that she enclosed a tenner with the card.
Nothing like a bit of bribery...Anyway his 2nd birthday party was a great
success, brilliantly organised by Elizabeth.
We had the whole downstairs of a kids coffee shop with loads of toys and
activities for ten of Christopher's friends. The kids all got on well and so did
the adults!
It was just delightful to see Christopher's face when they all sang Happy
Birthday - just not something money can buy... he had a bit of a row with his
girlfriend Maralie but it was all sorted out in the end.. kind of a lover's tiff
thing.
Every child went away with a helium balloon with their name on it and
every adult got proper coffees and cake. Everyone went home happy and we
opened lots of presents when we got home.
You know I'm always banging on about Government waste so it was with
delight I got a copy of a new book:
Stu writes: I enjoy the day to day banter on your site, I wonder if you
could help with this. I thought Diploma had great results. So I watched to buy
and did so late in the day, had a look on advfn trades and seen my buy gone thru
as a sell, what's that all about then ?
Hi Stu.. simple don't believe the advfn trade analyser or any other
website trade analyser because it's machines guessing! The machines check the
current buy and sell prices against the trade and decide whether it's a buy or
sell.
This is one I've made some decent profits on in the past and luckily some
lazy shorters and what I think is an incorrect sell statement from a broker has
given me a good chance to get in to the shares 100p cheaper than they should be!
I know Vanco very well and even visited the company for the Sunday Times a
couple of years ago. I like what I see there, a very well run company.
It had probably gone too high at over 600p for the time being but at
400-430p it's good value. The reason it's gone down recently is vague question
marks over accounting policies.
Unfortunately for them, the accounting policy question marks are simply
inaccurate according to the company's head man Allen Timpany - I had a chat with
him and asked him to release a statement ... and here it is exclusive to this
website!
Vanco CEO Allen Timpany statement to Nakedtrader:
The above accounting policy has been consistently applied in Vanco's
accounts and is considered by both Vanco's directors and auditors to be
appropriate to Vanco's business. This was further reviewed by another top 4
auditing firms at the time of changing to International Accounting Standards in
2005 and considered to be appropriate for Vanco.
If cash is received early in the contact then this does not advance or
change when the revenue is recognized. Revenue will still be recognized in the
accounts when the goods or services have actually been provided.'
Thanks to Allen for clearing that up. Goldman Sachs have now put out a buy
note on Vanco with a target of 501p and three directors bought shares too.
My view from here is that the shorters will start to lose their bottle and
close out their bets causing a sharp rise in the share price up to around 495p
and possibly quite quickly.
I took profits in Walker Crips selling my 2,000 shares on Friday afternoon
at 376.5 for a decent profit of £1,500. It's been a lovely riser but for the
moment it might struggle to go any further so time to hop off for now with a big
thank you for being such a lovely share.
I also took profits in OPD selling 1,300 shares at 425.1p today for a
profit of £406. My reason is the same: struggling to get any further for the
moment. I think they are both decent companies and I'll keep them on my radar.
That's a total profit banked of £1,906 for the website today
Elsewhere an up and down kinda day but on the whole more ups than downs!
The last buy Management Cons. Group goes very nicely and looks set to break up
through 50p and then hopefully at least up to 60p.
Oil services bounce back well today with a good rise for Petrofac and
Sondex. Keller holds onto its spectacular gains on Friday very well. Celsis,
Renold and Mouchel all nicely on the up today too. My real-estate related
companies all booming today with Paragon, Costain, Quintain and Teesland all on
the rise.Friday 17th November
This place has a strange but interesting charging structure.. the earlier
you go the less you pay. So for a main course if you go at 5.30pm you pay £5.30.
Place your order at 8.30pm and you pay £8.30. Kind of makes sense!
Then off to the cinema for the gentle movie 'Starter For 10' which is a
sweet comedy about a bloke from a small town getting to University and getting
on its University Challenge Quiz team.
If you happened to be young in the 80s there is plenty of great nostalgia
in it - even a 'Who Shot JR' mug. (If you know what I'm talking about I know how
old you are!)
We're gearing up for Christopher's 2nd birthday on Sunday! After our
terrible tragedy of three years ago when we sadly lost our first baby
prematurely, it is wonderful that Christopher is such a happy ending.
We're getting him a little trike for this birthday and we hope he has a
lot of fun. Happy Birthday Christopher, we love you!
Looks like a good recovery play with not a lot of downside here - it's
fallen off a bit - probably way too much and looks like fairer value in the mid
50s. The shares were up at 70p earlier in the year.
Despite the fall off, profits are on the up and the last report looked
pretty confident and it seems unlikely anything nasty is on the way.
Elsewhere the star of the day is Keller which has soared over 820p today
on a very bullish trading statement. My buys at 611, 650 and 750 look rather
good!
Vislink soars too - looks like the shares are becoming scarcer - there
have been some big buying volumes including one buy of 1.75 million.
I bought more shares in Vislink today via a £100 per point spreadbet -
however I am not going to add these to the site as the site already has a huge
amount of Vislink shares which I am very pleased about. More to come here and a
swift rise to 120p at least is on the cards before promotion to the next index.
The oils are having a bad day but I would guess that's just temporary,
there's a little profit-taking in Petrofac. Sondex contiinues its excellent
recovery.
Marchpole, Teesland and Big Yellow are all risers in a weak market. So my
lot holding up rather well today given the poor conditions! The high riskers
seem to be taking this in their stride.Thursday 16th November
Lauren Booth is a complete embarrassment. Pretending to be cool by going
to reggae gigs 'I'm the only white girl there!' Toe-curling!
It's Christopher's second birthday on Sunday! We're hired the downstairs
of a kids coffee shop and he's got ten friends coming. Yes, indeed, it will be
mayhem but there are staff there to keep all the crazed toddlers in order!
Let's hope they all don't eat too much cake or there will be sugar-crazed
toddlers screaming their heads off all over Fulham....
My father has been sent home thank goodness after his fall - but it looks
like he will need to be kept an eye on and thinking of getting a nurse to keep
an eye on him, we'll see. I'm off to see my mum this afternoon - she is making
progress but still can't talk and needs to write everything down.
Oh dear, Scotty thanks. Looks like they are going to try and charge us for
current accounts and start charging again for ATM withdrawals, the bastards!!
Belinda writes: As to the state of the NHS - it's a common problem - don't
try the casualty here in Dublin (well I'm sure you won't intentionally!) - it's
like the Somme on a bad day, so it'll be handy to go to Tesco 'every little
helps' with any minor requirement (no doubt with a self-service check-out and a
free PC for your school with every 200 operations!
Mike writes: Sorry to hear about your mother, wish her all the best. No
sooner do you talk about Vislink and what happens this afternoon, massive
trade/buys. You must have some form of reverse jinx!!! Don't let us down keep us
all educated and informed!
Thanks Mike, I must talk about Vislink some more!
Pick of the portfolio today is Mouchel Parkman a lovely little favourite
of mine that has done nothing but gradually go up since I bought at 280, 320 and
380! Profits now in the £9,000 area!
It announced some great looking acquisitions today which will be earnings
enhancing and I can see plenty more mileage in this one plus sleep at night.
Terrific stock. Private investors aren't in this one as it's labelled a bit
boring. Hey. Give me more boring!
Vislink will rise sharply I reckon - only thing holding it back is market
maker INV which appears to have some shares to sell. I suspect they have the BT
Pension fund shares on their books - once out of the way I can see a sharp
upswing.
My real estate related shares are enjoying a huge upswing - tempted to
take profits but not yet. I love to run the winners for as long as I can. But
huge profits now combined from Bug Yellow, Workspace, Weir, Quintain and
Paragon.
Mothercare reported today - statement looks OK if not spectacular and I'll
carry on holding for now. A fairly obvious treeshake in Charter left me unmoved
- I can see a bid here at around the 1200 mark.
My oil services sector shares continue to climb with Petrofac the big
star. Hunting does well too and Sondex is recovering from the recent
shenanigans.
Creston's been quiet but looks set to rise before entry to FTSE smallcap
in December. Croda looks keen to start making progress again and it can move
fast. It could go from 550 to 600 in the blink of an eye.
Wednesday 15th November
So he is now in hospital, a completely different hospital from my mum,
miles and miles apart which makes things extremely complicated... I don't think
this fall in itself is serious and I think they will discharge him shortly but
it usually means the start of a health downturn.
A friend pointed this out to me this week: At your kind of age you have
both ends of the scale, young children who need care and attention and your
parents who need care and attention too...'
Talking of age, a BBC station boss sent an e-mail to presenters banning
phone-in callers who 'sounded elderly'. It's very sad that in these times youth
is everything and those in the 70s and above feel there is nothing for them. The
BBC should be the last organisation 'banning' the elderly from taking part in
their programmes.
After all it is the elderly who have the most experience in life and are
far more interesting to talk to than Big Brother celebrity wanabees...
Talking of celebs, Lauren Booth appears to have let slip Tony Blair is
thinking of going in January...! I think it's pretty obvious if Tony says he's
going in May, it'll almost be certainly earlier - as he wants to create an
'unexpected' buzz when he goes. He's that kind of guy!
This is the first time that any major bank has imposed automatic fees on a
mass of ordinary customers and it is expected to be followed by others. Critics
accused HSBC and First Direct of 'sheer greed.'
The big five banks - HSBC, Lloyds-TSB, RBS-NatWest, Barclays and
Halifax-Bank of Scotland - made a record £31 billion last year. While profits at
HSBC rose by 18per cent in the first half of this year to a staggering £6.7
billion.'
So there you are - they are out to get us and now it's started the others
will follow suit I would guess - it's a bloody scandal considering those
profits. It may be the time to start to move accounts if need be.
Graham I really wish there was a reliable indicator - the only thing is
though if you are confident with the company and its prospects then a fall on
profit-taking on results day is often followed up by rises again one or two
weeks later. Usually I prefer to stay in if I still like the company and it
hasn't issued a warning.
For example I have stayed with Diploma which dropped 40p on results day
but liked the results and remain a confident holder and did not want to sell and
buy back with all the bother and commissions. But Carrs I sold on results day as
there were some warnings!
David writes: I' a student (currently on a placement year)
and was looking to get into trading. I finally took the plunge at the end of
September, buying £1000 of Abbott Group Shares (ABG).
Always difficult David. I tend to try and sell at the height of the
speculation and not worry about losing a few points. For example I sold
Enterprise after some recurring bid rumours - it had gone up 100p and I figured
that was a decent enough rise - shares often fall back after the bid speculation
starts to recede. Often a bid materialised some 3 months after the bid rumours
surface!
Richard writes: I notice that you sometimes sell shares on the rise and
get back in quickly when the price drops. I was under the impression that when
Gordon Brown stopped bed and breakfasting he stated you were not allowed to buy
back into the same company for 30 days, have I got this wrong? - I hope I have!
My accountant is unclear on this point!
Hi Richard I think there is a 30 day rule to prevent 'bed and
breakfasting' (taking a profit or loss for tax purposes). You can buy or sell
them but there is no tax benefit. This doesn't apply in my case as all my shares
are held in ISAs which are a tax shelter...
In fact today I've had as a whole the biggest gains ever in one day. My
spreadbetting account alone is up £15,000 already this morning.
Marchpole reported today: those of you who think I'm a real genius and
bought at 13p and can now sell at 120p are a little out - the shares were
consolidated and are equivalent an old price of about 24-25p. However I have
nearly doubled my money.
Today's report shows the company's recovery is definitely underway and
really shows it is definitely undervalued, a rise to at least 150 would seem
fair. Progress towards that may be slow as there have been a lot of people
sitting with the shares for a while with the need to take some profit. Once
cleared out and with some new buyers coming in 150p seems fair value.
Pretty much everything in the portfolio is showing big gains today right
across the board...Charter is the biggest winner up big points among other
shares booming today - a bid on the cards here within the next 6 months.
Petrofac has been the best recent mover as the oil services sector
continues to boom - big profits on this one now. Much more to come. In the same
sector Sondex recovers well from recent falls and glad I had the balls to hold
on. And Hunting is coming back from a strange fall late yesterday.
This week's buys all going well. Hyder Cons rises very strongly today and
looks set for an attack on the 400p level - results due shortly.
Weir Group is up a big amount today, looks like that was a cracking buy
along with Workspace - both of these were highlighted at the last seminar along
with two or three others that have boomed!
Big Yellow and Costain both appear strong. Some profit-taking in
yesterday's buy MS International but I still think this looks good for good
rises once that's over.
Vislink is soaring again after the last shakeup and I'm hoping for a quick
rise up to the 120p area at least as the profit-takers are finished. As I
mentioned yesterday the market-makers were doing a good job of scaring out
private investors - best way to do that is drop the price a bit so they sell.
Which they did. Older hands like me like to stay in special situations like
this. Continues to be a huge winner and I'm doubled on one position and nearly
doubled on another!
Walker Crips carries on rising a bit every day. Keller has been soaring in
recent days and I can see it getting above 800p before too long. Recent buy
Quintain goes great guns today too up 13p.
Monday 13th November
We took Christopher to see her yesterday and he made her smile and laugh
which was great especially when he burst a balloon accidentally. I feel hopeful
she will recover as she is there mentally but I have kind of prepared myself for
the worst.
I see in a desperate attempt to cut waiting lists before the election the
Government is looking to provide minor operations in car parks.. in
supermarkets! It really is in the 'couldn't make it up' department.
Shortly I could go to Tesco's, do some shopping and get a Hernia operation
at the same time, how handy! No wonder all the staff I speak to at my mum's
hospital are depressed and fed up at the state of the NHS. There are more and
more empty beds and 'no money' to fill them.
Christopher's fave programme Teletubbies is gradually being replaced in
his affections by 'Balamory'. And he surprised both of us by out of nowhere
counting from one to ten which as he's not even two yet is pretty good going. I
don't think he really knew what he was doing but it sounded good. He does ABC as
well now.
I'm A Celebrity starts tonight, yes, it's crap but worth dipping into
occasionally - I have backed Jason Donavan and Faith Brown on the spreads, more
details below!
I bought 10,000 shares in COST today at 61.65p after they'd already risen
a bit. Those who're read my book will know this is my biggest winner of all time
having traded it from 12p up to the low 50s. Trebled and quadrupled various
money along the way.
I don't actually think it is such great value anymore but I do think
someone is running a slide rule over the company. Given I feel that way it's
going to have a tight stop at 57p and a target of 80p.
A couple of sells to report. The only word I can describe the way the
Carrs Milling results report was written is 'dour'. No spin here - tells it as
it is! In fact all of Carrs' statements are written in this fashion and somehow
every time it comes up with increased profits!
But this time there were too many 'challengings' and other negativity in
there so I took profits. I didn't play this well - I just couldn't get out at
the advertised early doors price of 640 and had to settle for a not so great
575p to bank a still decent profit of £673.
Newer investors should note if I was a tipster I could have claimed to
have sold at a mid price of 650 this morning! However my trading is real and
this is the real world price! Also must be noted selling on a Monday morning
when brokers have orders stacked up from the weekend is not so easy. The company
doesn't look expensive given the statement but I'd rather be out of something
with so many negatives in outlook.
I also took profits in Halfords and sold at 342.75 for a profit of £359 .
No major reason except there's no volume coming in of note and they are just
sitting there - I feel I can use the cash better elsewhere.
Recent buy Quintain is soaring today up nearly 2 I think there is some
more there to come. The oils are seeing some profit-taking after the big surges
on Friday. Worth being patient with.
Sondex continues to give some cause for concern and I'm close to selling
some. However I am giving the shares a little slack. Shares are down because the
management pulled out of a deal and it's going to cost them a few quid - the
City doesn't really like this sort of thing but I feel at 250 this really is in
the price now.
Hyder Cons holds onto recent gains nicely. My real estate related
companies continue to soar with Weir, Workspace, Big Yellow and Paragon all
performing strongly in the last two trading days.
Vislink is down a little - the BT pension fund is slowly selling its
holding. God knows why but the shares have been remarkably strong given this and
the shares are being picked up by others. I would expect some investors will be
worrying today and taking profits but the fact is Vislink is due a small fall
and it is hardly unexpected. I am a firm holder!
Surprised to see Abacus back to the 175 area - I would expect it to bounce
from here. Recent buy TT Electonics is becoming quite a star and is really
bursting upwards and looks extremely promising. Charter also rising well the
last couple of days as is Walker Crips.
Others doing very well today include Croda - settling well over 550p and
good old Mouchel Parkman which simply goes up every day! Oh, and Petrofac going
great guns and could be breaking through resistancePast Commentaries
Monday 2nd October to Friday 9th November 2006
Thursday 27th July to Wednesday 27th September 2006
Wednesday 19th April to Wednesday 26th July 2006
Monday 20th February to Thursday 12th April 2006
Thursday 12th January to Friday 17th February 2006
Tuesday 18th November to Wendesday 11th January 2006
Wendesday 24th August to Monday 17th October
Wednesday 20th July 2005 to Tuesday 23rd August 2005
Friday 20th May 2005 to Monday 18th July 2005
Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005
Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December
Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004
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