Past Spread Betting Commentary

  I'd just like to remind you all I wished you all a happy Xmas back in April so don't expect me to give you any further good wishes this year..

Don't you think though that ALL Xmas advertising should be BANNED until December 1st. Aren't you sick of hearing jolly sleigh bells way too early? Doesn't it spoil things a bit?

Call me Scrooge (oooh you scrooge) but I'm cheesed off with Xmas adverts whenever I switch on the TV or radio. And those flipping catalogues that have been coming since July. I know retailers are desperate but right now they are making me feel like spending LESS!!

Anyway the main thing is the turkey is ordered and some beef and a box of fruit and veg. And as long as I have a good supply of Yorkie bars (my current favourite) that'll do.

I can hardly believe my toddler Christopher is about to be three!

Seems only a few seconds ago he and Mrs NT were eyeing each other up in a hospital bed just after he was born! He looked fresh and fun then and that still is the case!

Christopher has obviously been the apple of our eye and we are so happy we had a happy ending toriginal tragic story.

He's actually 3 on Monday but we're having his party at a playcentre on Sunday. If you live up north you may be surprised to learn us jessie Londoners pay, er, yes I know over £300 for the party. Well, at least if anything goes wrong we've got someone to blame.

He's been waiting for his party for ages. So it's going to be a fun day with 20 of his best friends and a load of scared adults! (I'm a parent - get me out of here!)

He's getting a big Thomas Tank Engine playset as his present which we're sure he'll love!

Being a "late" father I'm really enjoying it and extra pleased I don't have to work for a living and can enjoy spending so much time with him. Forget money - this is more rewarding!

Markets

 Bloody Hell! That's all I can say about the last couple of days. In fact I'm fuming! I actually had to do some real work for a change yesterday and didn't even get my usual afternoon nap.

Yes, I really had to sit in front of the laptop for quite long stretches. Now I know how daytraders feel, how the hell do you do it and no wonder most of you lose money...

I often sit it out and have tea and toast during market volatility but this time I sensed there was genuine selling pressure coming in, and also things are rocky so I made quite a few trades - in particular I was concerned that one or two of mine were being hit and the best policy was to exit sharpish. After all I can always buy back lower.

My policy is generally to get rid of shares not performing or getting close to stops, or getting close to losing me more than a grand - I believe it is best to take small losses quickly before they become bigger ones.

Firstly though I topped up in MTL Instruments today (MTI) buying a further 500 at 561.4. My detective book is out. It's held up well during weakness and there are a lot of big trades going through after some small rises in price.

My gut tells me the volume could be significant and they are quite hard to buy online too. So all in all worth a top up as I believe it has bid potential over the next year or so and remains a core holding.

I think it's worth holding some shorts to make money on the downside spin that a lot of shares are in.

I shorted Capita (CPI) for a tenner at 685 yesterday targetting a fall to 600 with a stop of 720. The chart looks weak simply here.

I also shorted Rightmove (RMV) for a tenner at 573 yesterday - looks overvalued still and the only thing holding it up are the share buybacks.

And I added a further FTSE short at 6422 for a fiver though will exit quick if the market re-bounds which you never know, it could do bigtime on any positive news.

I did buy a hefty amount of an AIM share for my Sipp today which I thought was beautiful for a pension - more on that to those subscribing to this website in your mailbox email plus the trades for my SIPP.

I decided to clean up the portfolio a bit to stack up some cash, take losses where they needed to be taken and similarly take some profits off the table too. Here are those trades:

Waterman was sold at 190 yesterday for a profit of £625. Simple profit taking as it broke the uptrend - interested in buying back lower. Vislink went through the stop today - sold the rest of my holding at 65.5 for total profit of £1,011 on the final 3 positions together. No point fighting the market anymore here even though it looks so cheap. At least I took more decent profits higher up.

Yesterday Dmatek was sold at 120.01 for a loss of £367. Just looked weak. RM sold at 193.81 for a total profit of £305 on the 2 positions. Very disappointed to have to quit the spread in Lamprell at 427 for a loss of £640. Had to be done as it was hurtling towards the stop. However as it has gone lower getting very tempted to buy some back. Bowleven spread went at 318 for a loss of £420. But I hold onto the medium term investment in actual shares.

And finally I top sliced a bit of Mouchel yesterday at 443 for a profit of £690 on the last spread position. All of which shenanigans adds up to a profit of £1,204.

Elsewhere I've been grimly holding onto the oilies, it's tempting to sell in the recent markdown but boy would I hate to be out on a bid day. If another oil gets bid for like Burren the sector would suddenly go crazy.

They actually are holding up reasonably well. Shame I didn't wait a bit longer to buy Wood which is on a yellow card. Dragon holds well and Burren climbs again and all us holders hope for a bid price announcement soon, preferably at least another 100p higher.

Corin has been busting higher since I bought. Big clap to Ricardo and NCC both holding well at much higher levels than when I bought a few days ago. A good sign.

The Helical Bar short continues to bring home the money and I hope another 40 points is there for the taking. Telecity has been disappointing and is close to stops - it is very volatile given it's a newie and could just as easily spint back up in a few seconds. Hard to play.

I liked the look of the decent buying volume that came into Petrofac yesterday afternoon and wonder whether history will repeat itself today. Interesting!

BH Macro just rises every day and is becoming a wonder share for me!

So as has been the case a few times this year, a difficult few days and I don't blame anyone who's gone into cash. I am now sitting on quite a heap of cash and awaiting fresh buys on a really bad day which is generally a good time for me to buy.

Wednesday 14th /Thursday 15th November

 I've been getting quite a few mails about haggling!

Glad that I've given one or two of you the courage to get out there and get some of those prices you're paying down!

Do you know how much money you'll save in your lifetime by negotiating? A lot!

A new bit of haggling for me yesterday which was re-signing up to the gym I'm with. I have to go to a gym because of the vast amount of commercial chocolate I consume. As well as of course loads of toast. After all, trading is a stressful business and both chocolate and toast are stress busters!

"They reckon I should be a banker," said the over confident sales guy. "Oh really," I said. "So they think you could be a bit of a banker?" Bit close to the wind but he didn't get it anyway.

"Just sign here," he said. "That's £780..."

"Hang on," I said. "Actually that is SO much money come to think of it. And Cannons is right next door to me and do it for £550. So I'll leave it, thanks.."

And I prepared to bluff and leave having elicited previously from the staff they are desperate for sign-ups for their targets. "One moment," he said hastily. "Let me go to the office.."

He left. I guess he probably went to a colleague to complain. "Got a right banker out there," I expect he said.

To cut a long (and possibly dull) story short I got him down to £700 (saving £80) plus ten free guest passes, five free tennis courts and an extra month.

And finally, I threw him my "googly" and presented him with £600 of Tesco clubcard vouchers. "Never seen these," he muttered. "Ah," I said. "If you look here you can see I can use these against your gym's membership fees.."

He trawled back to the office and came out looking like a beaten man. "Right," he said. "So what you have to pay today is... " and how his teeth were gritted... "100 pounds." Well, I guess that's the first time he's sold a gym membership he was expecting £780 for... for £100!

I nearly said "how about £50 for cash" but on this occasion I think perhaps that would be overdoing it...

I should add if you get Tescos vouchers you can use them in some gym chains. And remember you get 4 times the face value. As they say, every little helps...

I want you all to make me feel proud of you and get out there and get haggling! No excuses and remember - take a wad of cash, and finally they can only "no!". So what?

Markets

  Various price falls yesterday tempted me into my "buy when everyone else is selling" mode. So I did some buying yesterday and lucky for me so far it's worked out.

With all the volatility you either have to trade short-term, stay in cash, or like me sell when there are buyers and buy when there are sellers.

It's hard to know what to make of the recent decline of Marchpole. (MPH). Made some big sums on this one earlier this year and last. There's been no bad news as such yet the shares have bombed as if there'd been 3 profits warnings. With a statement due next week I've decided to have a bit of a gamble and bought a small amount of 4,000 shares at 98p (yesterday).

Really even if the statement has some bad news, it might already be in the price. There's been a consistent big seller pushing down the price. And Cantor Fitzgerald have been on the sell side of level 2 for quite a while. And they are still around which is why it's a gamble. If results are in line, the shares should be up in the 130p area at least. It's a gamble too I suppose because you do wonder why the big seller has been selling. But it seems to be a decent gamble for a small amount and we'll see on Monday. Target 130 stop loss 90. I'll get out fast if the statement is a stinker!

I topped up on Wood (WG.) buying another 1,000 shares at 416.02p. There's been some profit-taking on this one today but I suspect another good rise is on the way in time. Stop just below 400p.

I followed that with a spread top up on Corin (CRG) for a tenner at 586. My reasons for this one is bid target possibility and this seems a good price to get in at again as well as the other buy just below 570.

And as I mentioned in the last update Vanco (VAN) looked ripe for a new trading range of 150-195 so bought again this time on the spreads at 158 for £30. Target 195 stop 145.

Charter's been weak recently so I sold the last of my shares at 1015 today for a profit of £3,045. I sold because it looks like short-term weakness could continue. However I still like this company and would be interested in rebuying at some point. It's made me a fortune over the last couple of years.

Elsewhere wisely or unwisely I still hold onto massive profits in the portfolio. I guess part of me is saying: Come on Burns, take some of them off the table now! And the other part is saying, don't forget the Xmas rally, stay with them. Hey it's called fear and greed, don't you know.

Star of the day goes to Ricardo, bought just a few days ago at a tad over 300p and then again at 325, it's soaring as I write and is nearly hitting 350! That's a very nice 15% - even better it's been achieved in a shaky market. If it can get through 350 my target of 375 (and more if it goes further) could be achieved quicker than I originally thought which was year end.

Still waiting for bid news on Burren - when you're sitting on £30,000 profit on a share I must admit it does make you a bit nervous but the bid could easily come in at another pounds or two. Going to stay greedy.

The oils are recovering after a battering this week. Bowleven has been upgraded to 395p by a top broker. Dragon's been a bit sickly but is trying to hold above the 300p level. Lamprell's been hit too but it's very volatile and can easily move 40 points just like that. Oilexco put out a decent statement which has sent the shares higher. Shame I took profits on the spreads but of course I still hold a decent amount of shares.

The Helical Bar short still goes well and even in today's good market it is struggling.

Brilliant share Wellstream announced yet another major contract win. It's been trying to push above 1000p but can't quite make it. But there's enough good news around to keep supporting the price and it's made me the most money from a single share this year bar bid target Sondex.

Talking of brilliant shares BH Macro shines on for me and it's nearly 200 points higher than when I bought a few weeks ago. Shows no sign of going down during bad times.

NCC too has done very well and seems unmoved at a higher price.

So all in all everything is going fine - however we are in volatile times and I do remain very cautious. One suspects there is more downside to come before hopefully, the Santa rally.

Wednesday 07th November

 It always amazes me that most people in the UK just won't haggle a bit or offer cash for discounts.

We're just way too reserved aren't we? But I've always done it, not because I need the discount especially, but it just feels good to get a bargain.

Remember if you pay cash to smaller shops they save around 3-4% commission they have to pay the credit card company so it's always worth their while just for that.

I've hardly ever been refused at least some small amount at most shops. Obviously it's unlikely someone like Harrods would do it. But smaller shops and chains usually will.

Yesterday I had to buy a new bicycle. I opted for a £220 one. Adding lights and a toddler seat took it to £280.

"Any discount for folding stuff?" I asked. A £20 discount was immediately proffered and after flashing the cash I ended up with £30 off and a free mirror.

So if you're going shopping, do what I do - go to the cashpoint first and look to get bargains paying cash!

If you've had a coffee from Starbucks recently and wondered why it didn't taste as nice as usual I can reveal why.

They've changed to semi-skimmed milk. It just doesn't taste as good as whole milk - a small cappuchino for me is a treat and it doesn't taste like a treat with semi-skimmed!.

So ask for whole milk! They claim to have changed because of "Health reasons". Of course I know why they really changed - semi-skimmed is cheaper to buy in bulk than whole.. you can imagine how much they are going to save!

Don't you just hate it when companies change policies and pretend it's for "green" reasons when it's for extra profit. Same goes for the Government with "air taxes".

Oh and do remember my Starbucks tip: they do a "secret" small size which is way cheaper and much nicer than the standard "tall".

Ask for a "short" size for a cappuchino or latte. Not only does it actually taste of coffee and not just milk, it's cheaper and way less calories!

This "short" size is not advertised for obvious reasons - but it does exist and there is a short button on the till as well as secret short size cups hidden under the counter! Go short!!

Markets

  Well, there are plenty of reasons for the market to take a tumble. I remain heavy in oils as the sector to be in and despite market falls today my lot are doing fine.

I took out a new FTSE short earlier this morning - a fiver at 6504.. with volatility increasing I won't hang onto that for long if the market starts rising again but will hang on for a while if we see a steady decline.

I also decided to take out a couple of new shorts in shares in weak sectors which are banking and property.

So I shorted banking share Alliance and Leicester (AL.) for a tenner at 706 and housebuilder Persimmon (PSN)for a tenner at 938p. Both these I'm looking at short termish but they are really in place in case of a continued selloff in both these sectors. I'm going to exit fast if it looks like a big bounce is on the cards and therefore I don't really have targets or stops in mind for these.

A new buy made yesterday - in Ricardo (RCDO) 1,500 shares at 304.9p. Target 375 stop 280.

Nice little business this and fundamentally looks undervalued. It's also just started a new uptrend - first chart target is around 330 then it's clear air till 380 ish. I think I would be looking to take profits if they happen in the 375 area looking at a 2-3 months hold to get there.

There's a nice dividend of 3% and there are unlikely to be any shocks aroud the corner. A nice little tuckaway for me.

Interesting to see it's remained as solid as a rock today even though a slightly wider spread than normal. There is also excellent support in the 280-5 area.

As I say in the new book I usually dump shares that are disappointing quickly while losses are small and so ditched two non performers.

I sold Vega at 203 for a loss of £215 and Boot at 207 (both yesterday) for a loss of £311. While both look very cheap indeed the best bet while they're weak is to stand aside and perhaps get back in when more strength is there. Boot especially seems to be attracting sellers - but at some point I'd expect a good bounce so watching for that.

I also took profits in Carclo selling at 106 yesterday for a total profit for the two positions of £1,024. Still looks a cracking company but just seems mired for now and I could use the money elsewhere. So that's total profits for the site today of £498.

Elsewhere pretty pleased with the portfolio today given market wobbles.

Dragon Oil broke out very strongly yesterday and holds onto those gains today. Any move above 330 would look very bullish indeed. The other oils - including Bowleven are doing fine too.

Fortune Oil continues to look strong and I'm up nearly £2,500 in short order! The rise up to 9p is very nice indeed considering I bought at just over 6p - any view of 10p is going to look extremely bullish. Lamprell rises strongly today too.

The short in Helical Bar is working out nicely and a drop to 350p looks very much on the cards. Always feels like a bonus to make money betting on shares to go down!

Fenner issued a decent report today and as usual traders are taking profits on results. To me it's really a long-term hold with the promise of a bid in the next year or so.

Recent buy NCC holds on to the excellent gains it made recently and I see a nice 10,000 buy has gone in this morning.

And other recent buy Telecity has been gaining well and holds onto those too - a rise though 350 would see 400 quite quickly. It's going very well on a bad day.

BH Macro remains a lovely hold indeed! I've noticed MTL Instruments a long-termer of mine is creeping up a couple of points a day, looks a good signal.

Monday 05th November

A fireworks packed weekend! Oh perhaps I should add: "Boom!" "Bang" etc just to make you all feel at home on the big night.

Friday night we were off to the local park for the usual fireworks and fair. Been a while since I've been to a fair.. my goodness the prices!

There was a carousel ride that toddler Christopher of course wanted to go on. It was £2.. per person including parents!!! The ride was about 3 minutes. So of course my brain got working - how much were they making?

ok, 25 seats all full, that's £50 a ride let's say a ride every 5 mins giving a 2 min turnaround. That's £750 an hour, over 5 hours that's £3,750. Not bad.

If the market goes to zero and I lose everything I'm going to set up my own carousel. Or become a window cleaner given mine appears to get £50 an hour round these parts and spends most afternoons on the golf course.

Although this time he kind of earned it given Christopher had got hold of a crayon and had drawn on every window.

The food there was the usual crap - the roast chestnuts very disappointing, all dried up. Tip: don't roast chestnuts, boil them for half an hour - much nicer. Just call me Nigella.

We were very proud parents as Christopher decided to tackle a massive bouncy slide. Even some 5-7 year olds were too scared to climb to the top and slide down but he was determined to get up there and slowly got there while the older ones were practically climbing on top of him.

He is one determined lad. Also he was only allowed three goes but managed to charm his way to 5 goes for our £2. So how much was spent after just an hour and a half? A lot!! All I can say is if you go out to a fair take a load of cash with you.

Saturday we went to the floodlit evening racing at Kempton Park - we were undecided whether to take toddler with us - we did in the end and it all worked out fine.

There's a big grassy area which is where all the other parents decamped to and Christopher was soon running around with other girls and boys around his age.

Oh, I had two winners... but , er 8 losers.... Still it's a good fun evening under floodlights. Again the food was a bit of a disaster. Mrs NT struck lucky with a curry but me and Christopher opted for fish and chips. Plenty of chips but the fish was a micro portion.

Some fresh doughnuts rescued the situation a bit later.

And finishing with the food theme I'm back into Yorkie Bars. Try the raisin and biscuit ones...

Markets

  Well, that FTSE short obviously ended up working out very nicely. For the moment though I've taken profits at 6491 which banks a nice profit of £1,195. Having said that I could be taking it way too early - but the big fall this morning was just too tempting.

 So despite not thinking I am much good playing indices, my FTSE shorts this year have actually made a lot of money and have given me more confidence to hang onto long term positions.

One new buy to report and that's Telecity (TCY) where I bought 2,000 shares today at 326p. It's an interesting operator of network independent data systems right across Europe.

I really quite fancied this one and wanted to buy quite a few on a spreadbet but try as I might the firms hadn't heard of this one yet and were reluctant to deal - apparently there were few shares to go round which is actually a very good sign.

I gave up with the spreadbet and will just stick to the 2,000 shares I got for now. Target 450p. Stop 275p. It's one of those shares that could squeeze a lot higher.

There have been plenty of big buyers this morning and should that continue I can see 400p here quite fast.

I've shorted Helical Bar (HLCL) for £20 a point at 404 this morning. For newer investors it means I am hoping it will go down and then I'll make money. If it goes up I lose!

It's in currently a poorly performing sector and another few points could see a serious deterioration. A dip below 400p is what I'm looking for followed by a dip to 350 where I'd be looking to take profits. Target 350 stop 435.

Elsewhere a tremendous day really considering the market's in poor shape!

Some massive risers - with star award for rise of the day to my most recent buy - NCC - which I bought late last week. That's climbed more than 5% or 20 points today - great performance - and given it's broken out so strongly I wonder whether it could climb up to a fiver quite quickly.

Other recent buy Goodwin is also rising nicely today too. Though due to the spread, not in a profit yet. Well what can I say about Wellstream? A brilliant performer which climbs today and lots of good press coverage over the weekend. Any break through 1000 and another 100p is there for the taking for me.

The oils pretty much hold onto all their recent gains for now. So well done Dragon, Bowleven etc.

BH Macro should get a mention - always lovely and steady with an excellent uptrend that still is there.

Tons of profit still sitting in the portfolio and part of me thinks I ought to be taking some of it.. but as hardly any gains have been given back I think there could still be upside to come.

Still - a bit of a difficult time for investors at the moment and probably better to be cautious than gung ho for the moment.

Wednesday 31st October

Happy Halloween? I say bah humbug and I don't care if I sound like a grumpy old git.

It's all very well if perhaps you live in a sweet little village, like say Upper Peasblossom.

Try being in London. All Halloween does is allows teenage thugs to go around telling old folk they'll set their houses on fire unless they hand over at least a tenner.

In the US, you "take part" in Halloween by putting out a pumpkin. If you don't no-one bothers you. Also it's for kids up to about 10. That's all fine. And they get sweets not money.

Don't know what's gone wrong here. It's a shame when kids look at you upset when you give them sweets instead of money.

The whole thing caused a problem for us yesterday... Mrs NT was told by the nursery that all the kids had to be "in costume" for Halloween. Well thanks for telling us just as the shops are closing..

Very lucky for us Mrs NT has a friend with a kid a year older than Christopher so she rushed over to pick up a pirate and a Spiderman outfit.

Christopher when crackers when he saw the Spiderman outfit, put it on and it took us hours to get if off him! This morning he demanded to wear it straight away and couldn't wait to leave for nursery to "show Emily" (his new girlfriend) the costume.

Let's hope Emily thinks he looks cool in it...

Hey I just ate a £100 plate of pasta. Think I'm kidding? Bit of short of time today but I'll reveal all about that on Friday!

Talking food did you see "Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares". Love that show! And I must admit I've become a big fan of Gordon.

Basically an ex entertainer was running a fish restaurant even though he hated fish and didn't eat it. It was about to go bust, his house was up for sale and he was down to the last 30k. He had two chefs who were taking the p1ss out of him.

In comes Gordon - but this chap was not taking the advice lying down. He couldn't believe his chefs were cooking duff food or the decor was horrible. Gordon persuaded him in the end - his horrible artworks were dumped and soon the restaurant was selling fish and chips and making £14,000 a week instead of £2,000.

So many lessons here for people in business who are losing money. You have to realise who your customers are and give them what they want, not what you want.

And in fact what Gordon does is simplify things - and that works with shares too. So many people surround themselves with silly systems and chart readers, fooling themselves that a machine is going to make the decisions for them. And they wonder why they don't make any money.

With buying shares and with any business the main thing is keep it simple!!

Markets

  It could be a volatile week depending on how the markets react to the interest rate statement in the States later this afternoon! We could easily see a big rise - or a big fall. Right now I'm feeling tempted to stick in a FTSE short but using a guaranteed stop to get me out should the market rise bigtime. But not sure.

I sold my IG spreadbet at 415 for a profit of £800. It's had a very good run and it looks a good time to bank. I may get back in again if it goes a bit lower.

I also sold Celsis at 214 this morning as the price started to retreat after an inital good rise. Actually, I thought the statement was fine and it looks like a decent company that's set to grow. My reason for selling was more to do with the fact I think it might just sit in the easrly 200s for a while before eventually moving higher - so it's one I expect to revisit in time - and in the meantime I can use the cash elsewhere. Profit banked is £228.

That's £1,028 banked today.

Nothing on the buy list today although I did buy a fun high risker for the SIPP - news on that to those who get the website in your mailbox e-mail.

Huge profits still elsewhere! The oils are still perky even after the oil price dipped today.

However star of the week has to be Fortune Oil - I'm up around 40% in just a few days! The price is swinging about quiet violently but I'm just going to sit with it and ignore the ups and downs - at one point up 15% today, now 10%. All I know is something is going on here which might be quite good!

Other oils are fine too. Bowleven looks on the verge of a break up to 400p. Hunting has had an interesting day with some very good buyers around this morning. Well, look, I now hold most of the mid cap oilers and oil services companies so if any bids come in I should be in one of them! Dragon Oil still looks the pick - it often looks like it's going down but it usually is just a bigger spread suddenly opens up.

Fenner continues to look a good market and a statement is due soon. Vanco is holding onto some recent big gains and any push through 200 could see 250 fast. Corin is perking up - when is that flaming bid going to come?

Recent buy NCipher continues to push up very nicely and hopeful of it getting up to the 300p area.

No big movers for the rest of the portfolio today but I continue to be absolutely delighted with progress since the summer and I've made more money than ever before.

Being in the right sector at the right time has helped.. It is going to be an interesting and probably volatile week when all investors are going to have to stay on their toes!

Monday 29th October

I've changed my mind about putting the clocks back. In fact I've had a great idea: why not put them back an hour every day instead of once a year?

That's because it made yesterday so delightful. Wake up at 8am - excellent, hey even better it's only 7! Back to bed!

Have lunch at 1 - really nice - finish at 2. But hang on, it's 1 again, let's have lunch again!

A nice afternoon nap. Wake up at 5pm... but it's really only 4pm!! Time for another nap!! Get to bed way too late at 11pm - but I've forgotten - it's only 10pm... brilliant!!

Now wouldn't it be great if that was the same today. If I bought a share at 2pm and it was down 5p by 2.30pm and I realised I made a huge mistake and the share was pants, it's easy - it's really only 1.30pm so I can pretend it never happened! Magic!

In fact I reckon 3 is the new 2 and 9 the new 8. And after all that I have no idea what the hell the time is except it's probably time for a chunky kit kat. Or lunch.

Talking of lunch - or brunch as us middle class jessy Londoners put it - (who are you calling middle class - oi, are you looking at my girlfriend?) we went out to lunch/brunch both days.

And we were honestly amazed that neither "restaurant" could even cook an egg or a sausage properly.

I mean I used to own a cafe, it really isn't hard to make breakfasts. And they have a great mark up. about 50p to make and you can charge at least a fiver.

So we really thought a new place that's opened close to us that were charging £7.25 for breakfast might just be decent. But no such luck.

One measy rotten fried egg. One sausage, a tiny bit of bacon, some tired toast and no butter or jam! Tea was tepid water in a tiny cup with a tea bag on the side. Mrs NT had an omelette - the only use of which was as a door stop.

Anyway I've sent a letter of complaint. See if I get a reply.

Then on Sunday we tried our luck at another place. Again at an outrageous £7.50. This time the eggs were ok but the sausage - and I'm afraid I can't put this any other way - looked like a giant dog turd. We complained and were offered a "free coffee". "You should have just taken it off the bill," rightly complained Mrs NT. The manager muttered apologies but refused to give any money back.

I've fired off a complaint to that one too. about time us consumers hit back.

The basic rule of thumb is if you want a decent breakfast don't go to a pony place. Go to a greasy spoon which charges under a fiver for breakfast and bet you it'll be good.

Next week I'm just going to make breakfast at home!

Blimey just in: a reply from the owner of the first restaurant and it's quite impressive:

"Robbie I totally agree with you that the breakfast portions should be bigger. After reading your email, I worked in the restaurant today and can confirm the following.

All Full Breakfast portions we have increased dramatically. Butter and Perserves on the table along with HP, Ketchup, Sugar, Salt and Pepper. Teas now served in pots. I will be working in the restaurant the next couple of weekends to make sure these standards are maintained, please make yourself known when you pop in next and I'll happily buy you and your wife a drink..."

Well that's impressive isn't it! Good to know a business is willing to accept reasonable criticism so what do you reckon, he deserves a plug for that. It's called "Fulham Beach" on the Fulham Road. Well done!

Right, we'll go there next weekend and have a chat with him (and get a free coffee)! Well, there you go, sometimes it's worth complaining!

They're damn clever those merchandisers of Thomas The Tank Engine. When the TV comes on and parents hear the dreaded words: "NEW Thomas with BRAND NEW characters!!" What we really know is each "New" character makes them a fortune.

After all it's £15 per engine! Every new character probably makes them a million! So I guess there will be a lot more new trains in store... Peep! Peep! And watch the money roll down the tracks..

Well with toddler Christopher's third birthday coming up on Nov 19th I guess we'll just have to buy him the full set. Yes, I don't care I'm a doting parent.

He's also having a party at a local playcentre. Don't ask how much it'll cost - don't want to shock you.. Ten of his best friends will be there hopefully including the new love of his like Daniella who also speaks Spanish - Christopher rather likes saying "mio mio!

Anyway all I can tell you is the terrible twos have gone and he is currently an absolute delight - even if he did kill my last laptop...

Markets

 Had to agree with the Sunday Times. Why are Northern Rock's shares not suspended? It is definitely a false market - we don't know whether there will be a bid at 300p or whether the shares have little or no value. They ought to be suspended till a deal is done. They are just a gamble and nothing else. I can't think of a valid reason why they should still be live.

Well, what can I say? The portfolio simply continues to power ahead with a massive amount of winners today.

I've added what I think is quite an interesting new one to my portfolio and that's NCipher (NCH) where on Friday I bought 2,500 shares on Friday afternoon at 255p. Target 295p stop 215p. An interesting medium-term recovery play for me and a stock that appears to be turning around. It's recently moved back into profit and chairman Robert Jeens last month lifted his stake in the company. Its markets appear to be recovering and there looks to be good upside for me and limited downside.

I also bought into a new oil/energy company but as it's an AIM stock I can only buy it in my SIPP so I discuss that today in the exclusive SIPP part of the naked trader website in your mailbox e-mail today to those of you who get it.

Finally I couldn't help myself and topped up one more time in Dragon Oil (DGO) buying a further 2,000 shares at 303.1p Friday afternoon. Discussed this one in depth before and it's shot up again today. Target 400 stop 250.

The oils/energy shares are simply surging today - last couple of buys Lamprell and Bowleven have already soared nicely higher - and no-one seems to be selling. Lovely performers. Gamble Fortune Oil goes very nicely indeed and I like the tick up over 7p today.

Oil services stocks Wellstream, Petrofac and Hunting all seem in good form today.

Vanco looking very good - now up around 30% on the first buy and also glad I topped up - getting through 180 was significant and if the 200p can be breached I'm hopeful of 250 quicktime.

Fenner continues to surge - with my detective hat on the volumes say to me something good is going on there and I wouldn't be surprised to see a very good statement soon.

Of course a note of caution needed here with the FTSE not far off its highs and if it goes up to the 6700-6750 level I am going to be tempted to get shorting it again.

Of course it is also tempting to take some of the huge profits that have been building up - but for now I'm going to err on the side of greed rather than fear.

Wednesday 24th October

  Well, that was a nice birthday! Thanks very much to the markets of a wonderful present of nearly £10k profits... lovely!

Mrs NT bought me a superb watch and she's promised to sort out all my paperwork which is a really amazing present which I couldn't buy!

And to top off I got treated to one of my favourite restaurants, the River Cafe, which is a short walk away from where we live along the Thames.

It's a great place and the woman who owns it who's on the TV doing recipes from time to time is always there. Good for her - doesn't spread herself too thin like Gordon Ramsay.

Sometimes it's better to enjoy yourself specialising in something and making nice money than getting stressed and trying to run an empire for millions. What do you want all that money for anyway? Really?

Anyway after days of eating meat at posh restaurants I went for fish and had a whole Dover Sole with artichokes (ooh hark at him!) - Mrs NT had the sea bass.

The only negative about River Cafe is there's not enough "naughty" stuff - after all a few chips with ketchup would have been nice but nothing like that on the menu.

It was pretty full of business types showing each other their various new websites and business propositions. Lots of money to be made from ideas there.

Markets

 Well I guess it took a bit of courage on my part to stick to my guns and buy rather than sell when all hell broke loose on Monday and for the moment that paid off.

As indeed as buy when all are selling and sell when all are buying paid off for most of the year.

Some trades to report!

I continue to believe there will be bids for a lot of oil and oil services companies in the next 6 months to a year and so I want to make sure I'm in a lot of them.

So I added three more!

One is a re-entry and that's Hunting again (HTG) with hopefully a better re-entry price of
711.3 on Mon. (500 shares). No more needs to be said as I've blogged enough about oil services! Nicely up today already. Target 780 stop 670.

I also bought speculatively Fortune Oil (FTO) 100,000 shares at 6.4p yesterday. Target 8p stop 6p. Unbelievably the last time I bought this one was nearly ten years ago in 1998 when I bought at 6 and sold at 9! So it's not exactly performed has it? But it seems worth a bit of a gamble as for the first time I reckon it could conceivably make it into a bid. It's also a bit odd for me to buy something at a "penny share" price.. so we shall see!

Wellstream (WSM) has proved a big money-spinner for me, I doubled and a bit making nearly £15k recently. I bought again yesterday as it started to rise strongly this time on the spreads for a tenner at 836 even though it had already risen 25p. Target 950 stop 808. No idea why it rose but just tagging along. I also discovered I still had cfd's in it I'd forgotten about in my sipp (2,000 cfds at an average 540) so delighted!

I cashed in my FTSE short made at 6749 at 6554 this morning to bank a nice profit of £975 which makes a total of more than £7,000 banked from FTSE shorts over the last few weeks.

If you think that seems a high price and I'm doing myself out of quite a bit of profit, I'm not as that's the Dec price which is higher than the current price.

Pleased with that as I'm not a great indices player. I do intend to try and short again preferably after the market has gone up a bit!

Elsewhere the portfolio continues to shine. This week's buy Vanco the pick with a pretty decent rise of 15% already! 180 could be a barrier and I might take profits if it struggles to get through there - if it can break though then I'll carry on holding and increase the target to 220.

My Charter re-entry proved well timed with a nice rise. A little tempted to bank profits. I noticed some quiet bigger buys going into Corin yesterday - it could go like a train if it can get through the tough 650 area.

Dragon Oil has broken through 300 again which looks good and a massive buyer of nearly a million shares around today makes for good reading!

Bowleven continues to shine too and it's on the verge of a big breakout. IG has been going well as have a lot of others. Vega and Vislink remain a touch disappointing.

If the market can continue its good form from Tuesday a lot of mine are sitting on excellent breakout levels and I feel there is significant upside still possible.

Longer-term though I have my doubts whether the market can sustain these levels and will be looking to do some shorting in the not too distant future! I do remain a touch cautious.

Monday 22nd October

Markets

  Oh, it's one of THOSE days! After a few years of trading it's getting pretty hard to get me worried. Been there, done it and bought the T-Shirt (99p from the Mr Pound shop)

It's really a question of deciding whether to bale out and go into cash or to stick it out. Or to do some buying! Really and honestly I'm not sure. Are we heading for a bigger fall or is it a correction? Wish I know!

Some people will be going into cash, some will be bottom fishing, some will be shorting and some holding. There's no correct answer. It's only in hindsight we really know.

In hindsight I could hardly have got my timing more right with the FTSE short at 6749. Shame I didn't put a bit more on but still it's up around £1,500 so can't complain. Tempting to take profits on that but it remains a useful hedge.

I also had a FTSE downbet using a covered warrant a few weeks earlier. That's now up more than 60%! However I won't cover that here on the site as covered warrants are very dangerous.

I have a lot of oil which should hold up well, a FTSE short which is obviously going well and everything else is holding up ok. So more watching than anything else.

However I have made a few trades since Wednesday which are:

I bought 2,200 Vanco (VAN) at 149.5p. Target 180 stop 130. A recovery play really. This one's been hit hard because its methods of accounting have been questioned. However it seems to me for now that all this bad stuff is well in the price and hence the selling seems to have been overdone. Looks worth around 200p for now till the question marks are cleared. So it's a little gamble I guess with a tight stop. I'd be out fast on any fall below 130 where the big support is.

I've bought a small extra Charter (CHTR) on pure bottom fishing, picking up 250 shares at 1127.7 and a £10 rolling spreadbet at 1129. I'll be out of those sharpish if markets continue to fall but still hold my major lot from the early 700s. So these two trades are very short-term as I feel the shares overshot on the downside this morning. Could even be out this afternoon.

I sold my short in Provident Financial this am at 826 for a nice £730 profit. It's always been a profitable short but I thought I may as well cash it in on the market weakness. Could be a mistake, we'll see.

Sadly I ditched my long-term hold of Harvey N today. Sold at 63.85p for a loss of £292 and £207. Despite the fact it looks amazingly cheap compared to peers it's been hit by recruitment sector fears.

I sold Hunting at 715.15 on Thursday (though I do hold a few in a spreadbet personally). No overiding reason and I'm actually looking to get back in a bit lower. Loss is £132.

Elementis was sold at 102.3 (Thurs) for a loss of £93. Again still hold some in a spread not published here so again not that worried. I'd expect to get back into all 3 again soonish.

I top sliced a bit of Mouchel at 447.5 today - for website purposes we shall call it closing the 364 position for a profit of £1,156. However I keep my major holdings intact for now. Great company.

All those banked losses and profits give a profit for the site today of £1,162.

Elsewhere good old Burren continues to rise with another party making themselves known to be bidders for the company so we now have 2 competing companies in the frame. Good news for us Burren holders!

The other oils (such as Dragon and Bowleven) are holding up ok and are only down a bit compared with the stonking gains they've made in the last 6 weeks. I've been courageous (or stupid) and continue to hold.

Petrofac holds up well too alongside stocks like Fenner, BH Macro and few others.

It's very hard to call at the moment so my current strategy is to be wary and basically sit on the sidelines for right now and see how things develop.  

Wendesday 17th/Friday 19th October

 The massive "social whirl" begins for me today! And I'm afraid it means the next update will be on Monday, sorry so no Friday update this week.

Markets

 Markets continue to be excellent and the portfolio too. I'm not exactly sure how much profit has built up on paper in website positions but I would guess £60,000 plus. A bit annoyed none of them have been bid for today to add a sixth bid to the recent tally but never mind..

Tempted to take some profits? Of course! Do I think it's time yet? Maybe. Nearly. But with so many smaller companies getting gobbled up I would hate to miss my sixth bid!

There are a number of oil services/oil stocks that could easily be takeover targets after the ball was set rolling by Sondex and Burren. I think I hold a few of the most likely ones and I added another two yesterday - the first is back in Petrofac (PFC) where I bought 1,000 shares at 512p. Target 650 stop 475.

I made a packet out of this one earlier this year. And I think the time has come for me to get back in - mainly because it looks a likely target rather than any big fundamental reason. I would guess a bidder would have to offer in the 650-700 region. All supposition on my part and I could easily be completely wrong.

Another one I made a lot on in fact ever since it floated is Hunting (HTG) where I bought as recorded in my first book and in the Sunday Times at 180p! I recently took profits in the late 600s. I'm now back in on the same basis as above with 600 shares at 737.9. Target 840 stop 680.

Elsewhere where to begin? Mouchel Parkman deserves a big mention with website profits over £10,000 now. As you know, I've ended up building a big position here over the last two years and patience is paying off very nicely for this long-term buy and hold. I'm really looking for at least a fiver before I exit and bank them.

They've soared today after a very bullish report yesterday - I'd have bought some more but really I do have a lot and happy with the holding. It's taken a while but I think I'm about to reap some very big rewards indeed.

The oils - just doing brilliantly for now. Of course there is always an argument they are getting overcooked but after the Burren bid, it seems a good idea to me to hold them.

Dragon Oil and Oilexco profits have soared to more than £15,000 between them - with Burren profits of course nearly £30,000. Dragon got "tree-shaken" by market-makers yesterday but I held firm. There could easily be another 100p there.

Sticking with oils, Bowleven continues to shine with another rise today and a good profit in just a few days - a break upwards of 327 would be very bullish.

Looks like the bidding war for Burren could be hotting up as it's climbing rapidly and glad I held onto my shares where I hope to close out by the end of the month for a £30,000 plus profit.

Charter goes well too, a recent top up as does Fenner.

Elementis looks well supported and it's one of those that when it "Goes" it'll go. (If you know what I mean).

Waterman has been showing a real head of steam but will need a good kick to get through 200p. If it can that'll be good news for future potential rises. Might take a few days but I'll probably persevere.

Corin has jumped today which could be good news ahead..

IG, one of the last buys has soared today and easily broken through 400p which opens up 450p.

So yet again extremely happy with progress indeed over the last few weeks. I can only hope this can continue!  

Monday 15th October

  In the you couldn't make it up dept, 6 riot police turned up at a pub because..... yes, you guessed it, someone had a puff on a cigarette!

Yet as reported in a London paper, a bloke beaten up by a neighbour only got a visit from the police a week later... and was told HE'D be charged for using a computer to find out the guy's name via the data protection act!

Resources go into catching speeding motorists and they just can't be bothered to follow up real crimes. If crime figures are going down it's because there's hardly any point reporting it anymore. How long before emergency calls are diverted through to a call centre in India?

The Blairs must have been partying all weekend given what's happening to Gordon Brown. I can imagine Cherie dancing merrily round the living room to the sound of Club Tropicana by Wham..

Well done to the England rugby team - pretty stiff task next week but you never know.

And an even stiffer task for Fulham, our next door club. Any chance you could actually win a game? You're playing the bottom side at the weekend, come on now... I want to see some happy faces around where I live..

Markets

 Yet another day of good profits rolling in but how long can it last? Answers on a postcard please.

Still using that old cliche, may as well make hay while the sun shines because I suspect rainclouds aren't too far away.

And where the hell is bid number 6? With five bids in the bag in the last 6 weeks I was sure I'd get another one on Friday or today.. oh well maybe later in the week then...

I bought Elementis again (ELM). Some may remember I bought back a few months ago and got I think about 15% from it.

This one has been doing really well and I think there could be a lot more to come.

Elementis is interesting again from a number of perspectives and my reasons for buying are a mix of strong sector, strong company, bid potential, good volume, possible FTSE250 entry and chart breakthrough.

I bought 5,000 shares on Friday at 104.19p. Target 120 stop 95.

Next buy is a top up in the wonderful Charter (CHTR). Not as cheap as when I bought it a few months ago in the 700s and I spent a while trading it from low 800s to mid 900s while keeping a fair whack as a long-term hold.

Current web profits on Charter are around £5,000. As usual I don't mind buying at a higher price than I'm already in at and think there is another couple of quid there.

I picked up a further 350 Charter shares at 1219.9p on Friday. Target 1450 stop 1150.

Oils, wow!! My big position in Dragon Oil is paying off in bucketloads at the moment with the rise over 300p today looking extremely bullish.

More recent oil buy Bowleven has soared away already.. has all the makings of a huge potential upside for me. Looks like a well-timed buy.

Other oil Oilexco moves beautifully under the radar with steady rises every week. And of course I'm looking for a bit more from brilliant bid target Burren.

IG Group moves nicely higher today preparing for a hopeful break over 400p. Worth another 50p in my opinion.

Fenner's been trying its hardest to pull over 270. Some spotty analyst moved it from buy to hold on "valuation grounds". I suspect this analyst isn't thinking about all the possibilties but he probably still lives with his mummy.

So with absolutely massive profits building up in the portfolio, it of course is tempting to take profits. But while this amazing run continues I am going to sit tight. The trend is still up.  

Friday 12th October

The pictures from Maidstone hospital were really sickening last night. It again shows all the money spent on the NHS is wasted on ridiculous salaries for penpushers.

But how could the nurses have allowed the place to get into such a state without alerting the world? Basically the place murdered 90 people. There are thousands of elderly patients going into hospitals who end up being killed by the very hospitals themselves.

Having sadly had to visit hospitals regularly recently it's not good.

Hygiene does not seem top of the agenda. And while I know there are tons of great nurses out there I wasn't greatly impressed with one or two at the hospitals I saw. There seemed a lot of sitting round and reading the paper. And distressed cries from patients not being answered. It didn't surprise me to learn some patients at Maidstone were told to crap in their own beds.

And what's Gordon Brown doing? Cobbling together tax breaks to try and keep his share of the vote. I really don't think he gives a stuff about what's going on in some of these hospitals.

And of course he has a lovely pension to look forward to - not like most people whose pensions he robbed.

Hurrah! The BBC are meeting their "talent" to look at those massive salaries. About flipping time! Let's hope J.Ross gets a massive cut.

I see Virgin want to take over Northern Rock. Well, if it's anything like any other of their companies, get se to wait all day on the phone to complain...

Markets

  Well, wow, what can I say... an amazing week where I believe my personal profits must be well over £20,000 with some absolutely huge rises!

I'm dumbstruck as I got a FIFTH bid now to follow on from all the others - though this time it was a share that was only in my SIPP - those of you who get the lunchtime website in your mailbox plus latest SIPP column carrying on from the Sunday Times will know all about it and that's Broker Network which I did sell to bank a five timer as they were bought for about 100p back in 2005.

Those with longer memories will remember I had them in my ISA and on the site but Barclays decided they no longer qualified so I transferred them into my SIPP. This was also covered in my then Sunday Times SIPP column. It really shows how sometimes buying and being patient can pay off - it's been a lovely share and I wave a very fond goodbye.

Now some trades - for the moment I'm hanging onto the ones with the huge profits such as Burren, etc.

My strategy is always to check losses never run out of control but have the balls to hang onto big profit makers. Which is why you'll usually see I take small losses of about £500 but bank profits of £3,000 plus. I don't really like letting losses get much past the £500 mark. In my view this is the way to build wealth.

I just had to top with with Dragon Oil (DGO) one more time as I mentioned I would on Wednesday - as I said then I was waiting for profit takers to clear out at 281 which they did and I added a further spreadbet of £20 at 286. Target 350 stop 245.

This one has to be in the frame as a takeover target in my opinion. Currently I'm up more than £6,000 on the site positions. Shares have since flirted with 300p - this may mark a breather before what could be another leg up. However a convincing lift above 300p would look very bullish.

With the oil sector so hot I was looking around for other possible oil plays and I came across a company called "Bowleven" (BLVN). Had a good look at it and to me it seems that it's an oiler that's kind of "under the radar" of most investors - with the oil sector bubbling it could be about to start attracting interest given it's rising rapidly and I thought this might be a good time to get in.

So I bought 1,500 at 294.2 on Wednesday with a target of 450, stop 245. Obviously it's risky... but with good potential upside and a reasonably tight stop I'm very hopeful.

Obviously with the market going up my shorts are not faring well but it's my practice with these to get out fast if they go wrong. I managed to exit Rightmove as it was rising at 540 for a loss of £20 which I can live with! Shame as I was making a reasonable profit on it the previous day.

Strangely the spreadbet firm mailed me to say I had to close my Gyrus short because they couldn't borrow any stock. Never had that happen before but though I was miffed at the time, they have done me a favour as I closed at 400p for a £30 profit. If I had stayed with it as I would have done without the mail message I'd be losing £150 right now!

I closed out the FTSE short at 6717 yesterday - really should have closed that out earlier for a loss of £582. I then re-opened it for another fiver at 6749. Do remember if the price seems high I'm not doing myself out of money - they are December quotes so the prices are 50 points or so higher than the real price. Seems sensible to have a FTSE short open given recent rises but I won't give it so much slack next time.

One I don't talk about much but I should is Oilexco - now pushing towards 900p - profits on the site positions now nearly £6,000. It just keeps going up here and in Canada where it is also listed.

Burren (profits for the site around £30,000) is calm now after the bid intentions but I hold on in the greedy hope of more.

MS International has continued to go well with site profits now nearly £5,000. Still looking for about 270p on this one.

Fenner is trying hard to break up through 270p but can't quite manage it. Well, I've plenty of patience there and willing to give it time...

Waterman's becalmed at 185 despite numerous buy recommendations from pretty much all the papers and magazines - guess it just doesn't get investors going.. which is probably a good sign!

Given the market's down a bit today generally I'm pretty pleased nearly all mine are hanging onto gains for the time being.

It's been a wonderful week for me, and I think a lot of private investors have made a lot of money - great isn't it? Of course with gains comes the problem of when to sell. I never mind missing the top in the quest to run winners!  

Wednesday 10th October

  Yet another Budget statement which in effect puts taxes up yet again.

The inheritance tax thing is a red herring as couples with careful planning could use 600k allowance between them anyway.

Brown has deservedly been rapped in all quarters for, well, let's face it being sneaky. He wants us to believe he'd have changed IT anyway.. or his reasons for not calling an election.

The most telling thing was that horribly grinning/sneaky face when the budget statement was going on. Yuk!!

The BBC is going to have to cut 3,000 jobs.

Well, axe Jonathan Ross and save £18m, that would save at least 800 of them!

Amazing to think of all the journalists losing their jobs when they could be saved by dropping one rubbish off peak chat show.

Markets

 Well there I was moaning on Friday that none of my companies had been bid for last week..

Oh well, it didn't take long... and I made it my fourth bid in 6 weeks with another one! This time it was Burren Energy!

I happened to be at the screen when it happened and I was delighted! It's always great to see a price suddenly go rocketing up. I was even more delighted to get back home from Bristol to see there were quite a few bidders around for Burren and the price was up more than 250 points!

I guess it shows patience can pay off and the website positions on Burren are now showing profits of nearly £30,000!

Yipee!! I also had a pretty decent spreadbet on Burren too taken out recently which has paid off very nicely indeed.

So my bid hall of fame over the last few weeks now reads Domestic and General, Sondex, Foesco and Burren! Who's next? I have an idea about that but I don't want to tempt fate and name it! But here's hoping for a five timer by the end of November!

As to banking those large Burren profits, normally I do bank on a bid. However with a number of possible bidders in the frame, there is a chance it could go higher so short-term I'll stay with it though I am tempted to part bank....

I think the recent rises in Fenner (FENR) where I've been buying from 200p upwards look pretty significant and so I've added some more and probably my final lot today picking up a further 1,500 shares at 264,49p. Target 320 stop 210. There's been consistent buying here and results are due in early November.

This one is similar in many ways to recent bid target Foseco in the engineering sector and I can see it being quite a tempting proposition. In any event this company has simply grown and grown over the last few years since I originally bought some at 77p. I hold with some confidence.

Vega Group (VEG) is an interesting looking recovery play and I bought 2,200 on Wednesday at 212.8p. Interesting that the price rose after a presentation to analysts.

It's been battered a bit after saying profits would be a bit lower after a recent acquisition. However the future does look good and it appears to be oversold.

I wouldn't like to see it buy any further companies but it looks to me like a classic recovery play. Target 280 stop 195.

Elsewhere as well as Burren, my other major oil holding Dragon Oil has too soared - it really does have to be in the frame as a bid target and I personally feel it's unlikely to be around in a year's time. I'm tempted to pick up another lot but waiting till the log jam of profit-takers and sellers clears at the 281pish level.

And the rest of the portfolio has continued to shine. Dmatek announces a decent contract win today and it should carry on winning contracts.

Celsis continues a slow climb up and I see no reason why it shouldn't head back to 240p. Carclo also continues its decent recovery from the strong support at 100p.

MS International hasn't given up any of its recent strong gains and in fact is going up yet again - it has a habit of doing nothing for a few days but when it rises it shoots up. Looks good to me for another 25 points in time.

So, what can I say? Except I've made a fortune over the last few weeks and glad I had the courage to get back into the market when it looked ropey. But as I continue to add with markets sitting at recent highs, come caution is also required...  

Monday 8th October

 I'm off to somewhere called Bristol tomorrow.. never been there..

Why's that then? Well, mind your own business. Oh all right then it's because....

Hmm, what about a cliffhanger, I'll tell you all on the Wednesday update. All I can reveal at the moment is that update could be rather amusing...

I'm going to try a train. Probably first class because I'm a posh git.

Tried to book a train online but the sites are impossible to make head or tail of, or the prices.

I love it when a site urges you to book a return ticket then a message pops up saying "Buying two singles could be cheaper..."

I think I'll take a chance and turn up at Paddington and just buy the seat as we all used to do.. the results of all my travel on Wednesday, don't miss it!

Got a last minute babysitter on Saturday so ended up in noodle chain Wagamama.

What a clever business this is. It was packed. It's designed to be quite uncomfortable to make sure you don't hang around for too long. And it's not even cheap.

For example it's about £7 for what is effectively 5 small bits of chicken, some cheap veg, mainly peppers and beansprouts and a bit of sauce. (ie nothing expensive like brocolli)

The Mrs had some rice with some nice sauce on it and a few cheap prawns for nearly a tenner.

I salute the business: Brilliant markups on everything. The menus make the food seem better than it is and we'd probably even go back!

If this gets a stock market float, count me in. It's an example of how to run a restaurant as a proper business.

Toddler politics - it's his birthday in November but which of his nursery mates should be invited?

Ah, well, apparently this is quite a common problem so the nursery provides a list of the kids he plays with most - which happens to be Rory F, Rory D, Benjamin and Hadi. And he fancies Bella and Maralie.

So they all get invited along with some of his other friends. He's been waiting patiently for his birthday party since... er, well the last one. He's going to be three and yes, it IS time there was a new pic of him on the website!

I could tell Fulham FC lost yesterday. We're so close to the ground I can hear when there's a goal. Sadly it was two goals for the other team whose supporters are the noisiest I've heard so far.
 

Markets

 Everything still goes very well, it's been a tremendous few weeks where something like £20,000 has been banked in profits for the site and a lot more than that personally. I also have some big profit sitting on paper.

BUT.... you know what sod's law is like. Whenever you feel you're on top of things, they will inevitably go wrong!

With shares having had a good run for right now, I think it's a good time for me to pause for reflection and any buys for the moment will need to tick all my buttons.

I'm probably for the moment more likely to think about banking profits than making any new major buys.

However a big rise for MS International (MSI) this morning has intrigued me - it's also risen quite a bit in the last week or so and I wonder whether something is brewing. Directors have just completed some buys - the chairman bought a decent 7,500 shares the other day at 206p raising his stake to over 24%.

I've always been brave and gone in and bought more shares in something going well even though I've already bought at much lower prices - most private investors can't bring themselves to do this.

So despite being in at 159 and 178 and despite the shares reaching my target and despite them being up more than 12p today I've just added a new if small amount of 1,500 shares at 225p. Target 270 stop 195.

If this breakout is false I'll probably sell these fast but hang onto my main holding as the future here to me looks bright.

Some lovely profits building up. Oilexco in particular has been going up most days and I'm nearly 200 points up on my spreadbet and 25% plus up on the normal trade. It still looks strong.

Waterman has continued to move higher and was tipped by the Times.

Burren has also been surging again and I'm very happy with the recent buy. Fenner's lovely breakup carries on and this looks very promising now. Celsis is up well today - still think this can get up to the 240 area.

Lovely Dragon Oil keeps going up daily. Dmatek and Alterian go well - Vislink was looking promising and I hope it can keep that rise going!

So to sum up, although the portfolio has seen some amazing rises in the last period I continue to be cautious and vigilant because the last thing I want to do is see those profits erode!  

Wednesday 3rd October

I seem to be quite busy on the social rounds at the moment, Tomorrow I'm off to see the head cheese of advfn for a coffee - a really lovely chap so I look forwards to it.

I also enjoy looking round the advfn offices, getting the latest gossip and finding out the office gossip - after all I haven't got any office politics here - except between me and the cat and that isn't wildly exciting at the moment...

If you have a toddler and you're bored with Bob The Builder, Thomas and Noddy there is a new one out that really keeps them quiet for half an hour!

It's called "Wonderpets" and it's on Nick Junior. Three animals who escape from the nursery to save other animals in trouble.

The plot is exactly the same every episode and so are the songs. But Christopher seems to love it and it's the only thing he'll sit through. Have a look!

Talking of TV, at last there are a couple of things back on to watch. Wife Swap is always enjoyable and Sunday's was great.

And the other one is Charlie Brooker's Screen Wipe on BBC 4 - 10pm Tuesday nights and also repeated on BBC4 quite a bit. A cracking bile filled look at TV with no holds barred. Hit and miss but the hit bits are genius. If you've never seen it give it a try.

Let's face it, at 10pm it's going to be more fun than the news...

Markets

  Goodness me!! My THIRD bid has come off in just 6 weeks. To follow on the huge success of Sondex and Domestic, I was thrilled yesterday of news that Foseco was the target of a bid from Cookson at 295p!

I guess you could call it a hat trick! Now I am hoping for a four timer with one of the others in the portfolio...

It goes to show a strategy of buying cheap looking shares in good companies can pay off.

As I usually do I decided to take the money and run instead of waiting for a few extra pence sometime in the future. I did that with Sondex and D&G and quite happy to not bother with the wait as I can use the cash elsewhere.

So I sold Foseco this morning and say goodbye to it for ever, thanks Foseco!

I sold at 278.48 to bag profits of £1,820 on the 216p buy and £2,215 on the 189p buy banking a total for the site of £4,035.

Elsewhere as I pretty much flagged up I sold Wellstream at 840.05 to take profits for the website of £2,756 on pos 2 and £676 on pos 1 for a total profit of £3,432 (and an awful lot more than that on a quite substantial spreadbet!)

I missed the peak of the price but that wasn't too far off and it was worth holding on. I'm never bothered about trying to get out right at the top. If it falls much, I expect to get back in as it's a fine company.

Total profits taken for the website for all Wellstream trades adds up to £8,135. Nice!

And total profits for the site today are £7,467. Lovely!

As I was writing the last update I said I was about to buy more Dragon Oil (DGO) after the drilling statement and I did exactly that picking up another 2,000 shares at 225.94 and £30 a point on a spreadbet at 228. Target 290 stop 195.

That was a super report I thought after reading it through quickly - I could see buying starting to come in and it seemed like a no brainer. Not only do the shares look cheap but this must be a tempting one for a predator?

Shares have risen strongly since then and with such a good-looking breakout a price around the 300p mark looks gettable.

The Foesco bid really does put other engineers into bid play. I already hold quite a bit of Fenner (FENR) but I have a feeling that'll be disappearing over the next year or so, and on the back of decent volume I picked up some more today - 2,000 shares at 254.75p to add to the other positions that are well in profit. Target 320 stop 220.

Elsewhere it's also been tremendous for the rest of the portfolio. Oilexco is really booming up now and I'm up more than £3,000 so far. Looks though like it might have a way to go with a couple of oil discoveries.

Talking oil, Burren has also soared since my recent buy and looks good. Recent buy CSR has hit the target very quickly and surged past it but for the moment will stick in there while it's in such good form.

Corin hasn't budged much since I bought the other day for bid prospects - but a long as it remains above 600, I'll stay there.

Mouchel Parkman is racing ahead very strongly today - perhaps something is cooking there, which as I have a big stake would be rather good!

MS International shows a good rise today - not sure what's behind it but I'm not complaining!<  

Monday 1st October

You just don't know how lucky you all were to get an update on Friday.

Why? Well, I managed to lock myself out of the apartment. I went for a run round the river but when I got back I discovered I had two keys as usual, but they were both the same. Idiot!

I managed to find some screwdrivers in the garage and tried to break in - my efforts didn't move the door at all.

Then I remembered all those shows where the police kick a door down. So I ran at the door and tried a hi karate kick which ended with me on the floor nursing a sore ankle with the door remaining a firm as ever.

I'm never going to make a great burglar. Or get a job with Starsky and Hutch.

Elizabeth wasn't due back home till 5pm so I reckoned maybe I should just lie on the floor and have a sleep till then. Then I remembered Elizabeth was at a friend's house helping him with some paperwork.

So I grabbed my bike and decided to cycle there. On the way, of course the heavens opened and I got completely drenched. I was only wearing shorts and a T shirt.

You could see people on the pavement thinking: "Why is that nutter cycling with nothing on in the rain?"

Anyhow got to the house and Mrs NT gave me a lift home. There is absolutely no way I'm going to do that again.

I really deserve a day in the naughty room for that.

Markets

 Well, the FTSE just can't push through 6,500 can it?

I got back into Corin (CRG) buying 1,000 shares this morning at 646.6p. Target 800 stop 585.

You may remember I've made some nice money on this over the last few months. Fundamentally it is well overcooked and I'm buying for no other reason than I tend to believe the bid rumours floating around (suggested takeout price around 800) which seem to be backed up by good buying. The company has had its hip product approved in the States and it really needs a takeover for the next stage I think. We shall see. The possible downside is that the company puts out a statement saying there is no bid likely. For now I'll take the risk.

As I write some drilling news on Dragon Oil which looks good and I'm thinking of a top up with my finger already poised on the buy button if buying comes in. Let you know whether I bought/topped up or not on Wednesday!

Elsewhere a lot of good profits building. What can I say about Wellstream?

More than doubled on my initial buys and I've made more profit out of this one than bid target Sondex. After such big rises one would expect a tumble and therefore I've been hovering over the sell button. But the strength is still there with some big volume - perhaps it's funds still buying in after its promotion to the FTSE 250.

Recent buys CSR and Burren all going pretty well.

A couple breaking out for me today. Foseco has seen some quiet buying going on and any close above 220 or so will look good. RM Group is breaking out nicely too.

My shorts are all in profit with Gyrus banking the best money so far. A good mop up acquisition by Carclo although the shares are down a little. Worth me sticking with it I think - there was some concern about one division but they say they expect a stronger performance from it.

All in all I continue to be delighted with progress over the last month or two. My view now is that it'll be tough for the FTSE to go up a lot higher for the moment and I am actively looking for shorts as well as longs.  

Friday 29th September

 I've managed to escape from the naughty room for a few minutes to write today's site!

Only one transgression today - Christopher sent me to the naughty room for refusing to jump on the sofa with him cos I'd just had my breakfast. Only 2 minutes though.

I can exclusively reveal that this winter is going to be cold and snowy. I feel very confident in this prediction.. why?

Because the Met Office has forecast a "mild and dry" winter ahead. There - that was easy.

Actually the longer I live the more I'm getting contrary - it seems to me that as humans we just get things more wrong than right.

So if someone tips a share - short it. If someone sells or shorts it.. buy it! If 90% of spreadbetters lose money, find one and do the exact opposite of whatever he does!

In fact if anyone gives you advice about anything, do the exact opposite. Which is my advice.

Markets

 It's continued to be an excellent few weeks for me and the profits have been rolling in very nicely indeed. I'm extremely happy with the large profits built up in so many positions.

 With the FTSE and Dow both near psychological big numbers.. 6,500 and 14,000 respectively it seems a good time to try a little short or two in the indices. As you know I'm not a big indices player although I did manage to make more than £6,000 from shorting the FTSE earlier in the year.

Seems to be more downside than upside for now. So I shorted for a little fiver a point at 6553. I should add if that price looks a bit on the high side and I made a mistake, it isn't! It is actually the December contract which roughly runs 50-55 points higher than the daily index. But it means when I come to close out, I close higher too!

I've made a ton of money in Wellstream (WSM). I've been quite big all the way from the IPO at 360 and so more than doubled some money on it - this included a quite hefty spreadbet of which I still have a lot open. Have taken some profits along the way too. It's even beaten bid target Sondex to be my biggest winner of the year.

I can guarantee you no private investor would ever buy a share that's gone from 360 to nearly 800. But then again as usual I don't mind going where angels fear to tread so I added another 1,000 shares yesterday at 772.9p. Target 880 stop 735. However because they have gone up so much I am more liable to sell quicker than previously. We'll see. The trend looks brilliant. All now depends whether there are any buyers at 800 plus.

I've been holding Burren Energy long-term all the way from the low 200s. It's been up and down, up and down but I just noticed this morning some very decent buying coming in. So I joined in and picked some up even though it had already gone up 25 points - and added 500 shares at 825.9. Target 950 stop 770. Only a small amount as I already have a largish long-term holding.

Dmatek was supposed to be a small long-term tuckaway on growth of tagging. So I haven't taken much notice of it. But I have to apply stops to long-termers too and it hit the stop yesterday so I sold at 131.1p. No announcements I could find of anything wrong, but I unemotionally came out to take losses for the site of £1,692 on pos1 and £820 on pos 2. As I always say taking losses is one of the most important things to be able to do. Always better to come out then letting them get bigger. I'll take another look at it over the weekend and see if it's a buy on such weakness next week.

My buy a couple of days ago of CSR has gone according to plan and it is just about at my 10% target profit price already! Finger is hovering over the take profits button but holding just in case it can break through the 650.

Elsewhere an excellent statement from Celsis, surprised they've not gone up a bit more but give it time as they say..

Still up on IG Group - good to see a very strong trading statement from smaller spreadbet company Worldspreads this morning which I hold in my SIPP - judging by that statement recent volatility means the spreadbetting firms are seeing an awful lot of business.

Interesting volumes coming into Foseco at the moment. Still can't break above 220 though. Nearly there.

Harvey Nash came out with a top notch statement today. Sadly the market's not interested and it's only up a tad. It just looks so cheap! Time some institutions sat up and took notice.

The short in Rightmove is moving the right way (gettit?) - Other short Gyrus doing the same. Hopeful of big bucks in both for me. (For new investors by shorting it means I make money if they go down).

Waterman reports next week and some buying coming in ahead of that. It's got a lot of green credentials which once they are noticed in the right quarters might start to give the shares a lift. Good write up in Shares Mag yesterday outlining the firm's bright future.

Renold saw some buying today and is moving up quite nicely.  

Wednesday 26th September

 I'm spending a lot of time at the moment being disciplined.... by my own toddler!

We created a "naughty room" (the laundry room) to send him when he'd been naughty which has worked pretty well..

But he's turned the tables on us. Mrs NT got sent to the naughty room twice yesterday and I ended up in there SIX times.

"Go to the naughty room," he demands bossily if either of us transgress. We have to go in there for one minute, he closes the door and then lets us out when our punishment is over.

I can't recall this happening on any of the nanny shows on TV. On those, it's the errant toddler who get sent to the naughty step or room not the parents.

I got sent there for 2 minutes for not being able to find his Fireman Sam DVD.

And Mrs NT got one minute for accidentally dropping water on the bed.

Do you think something has gone wrong somewhere?
Last night I went to see an old friend - she's just moved into a new house in Cookham which seems a pleasant village.

She's an astrologer - I gave her a job in the early 90s as the astrologer for a TV station I was working on. She cold called. She called at the right time when I was about to sack an extremely famous astrologer who sadly I can't really name for basically cutting and pasting old forecasts. This person was way too lazy to write any new stuff.. so I did feel whether you believe in it or not he was misleading viewers!

And I always admired people who cold called as it takes some guts. So I always tried to listen to them. So after I hired her we remained friends.

Anyway it looks like Scorpios like me are going to have a good rest of year! We went to a gastropub in the town which was pretty good. And the good news is she's offered to be a babysitter sometimes so me and Mrs NT can go out....think I'll be taking her up on that....

  The only reason I can think of that Gordon Brown is getting such good ratings is that he's not Tony Blair. And there's just a feeling of relief that we don't have to see another Blair ghastly speech.

Hilarious to see the Brown makeover. Looks like a lot of hairspray there. And those teeth look suspiciously white... I bet he nipped on a bit of "hi karate" aftershave too...

But his speech was the usual rubbish. "Son of a preacher man, excellence... blah blah..."

No mention of the raid on the pensions - Northern Rock, Iraq, and tha fact most people are living in debt and at some point it'll all come crashing down (this is just the start I reckon!)

Talking of Iraq interesting that the end excuse for the war was "regime change". Funny then that the US and the UK are happy to allow the sh1ts that run Burma to beat up its own people, murder them and repress them.

Murder loads of monks who are rightly protesting? Yes, no problem. Trade with them? Yes that's fine.

Of course the good thing about the rise of new technology is that unlike the last uprising in Burma in 1988, the world can actually see what is going on and I wonder and hope that the days of these bastards are numbered.

The bravery of the monks is amazing and we should all applaud them for it.

 

Markets

 It's continued to be an excellent few weeks for me and the profits have been rolling in very nicely indeed.

I've been quite busy and so here's what I have been up to.

Bluetooth tech company CSR has been sold off recently and yesterday it looked like it had come down enough for it to be value again.

I was in this one quite some time ago buying in the 400s and 500s and taking profits between the 700s and 1000s - but it went ex growth.

Anyhow I bought 1000 shares yesterday at 578.08p - target 650 stop 535. Of course CSR is an extremely volatile share and I'm looking on this as quite short-term trade for me. But at this kind of price it looks cheap enough and may have been oversold. So far I'm nicely up on the trade as it broke through 600 this morning.

I bought back into Boot H (BHY) this morning picking up 2,500 shares at 219.45p. Two reasons: one, as I think they are cheap, but two, because they seem to be in a 215-250 trading range with strong support at 215.

So my thoughts are they could trade up to 250 again and possibly higher if they break through. So initial target is 250, and stop a tight 205 on the basis if they dipped below there, it would be bad news.

I took profits in Game Group at 211 yesterday to bank a profit of £882. My reasoning was quite simply results to me were good, however a lot of growth is now in the price and I couldn'd see that much more upside for now. In fact I was rather surprised the share price went up so much yesterday morning and was quite happy to bail out on the strength. I also bailed out of N.Md at 390 yesterday for a loss of £800 - got caught out by this one while on holiday but it's been through the stop for a while and therefore I really have to stand by my own rules even though there seems a good chance of a bounce.

I shorted two shares yesterday on the basis I think they are overvalued. Firstly a previous buy of mine and one I've made good money on, Gyrus (GYG) where I shorted for a tenner at 403. Target 350 stop 420. My main reason for shorting (attempting to make money on a fall) is I thought the results were a bit disappointing and the level of debt is such that if there if any question marks come in at all the shares will slump.

The other short is Rightmove (RMV) - the property website. I feel its rating of more than £700m looks way too high given profits. And even its large share buyback programme isn't really supporting the price. I sold for a tenner at 538 yesterday. Target 460 stop 565.. (Both December contracts).

Elsewhere it's been great news all the way for the portfolio. Wellstream really is the shining star and it stormed higher on news yesterday that it was expecting results to be significantly ahead of expectations. My only regret is taking part profits a few weeks ago. Still, it remains a big shareholding of mine and the profits are huge. The real problem is when to take them, but while they carry on moving up, it seems worth waiting for more.

BH Macro reported today that one is now up nearly 200 points since I bought and I'm very pleased. Again it's question here of wondering when to bank the profits.

My two most recent buys, IG Index and Celsis both go very well indeed. IG is now 15 points higher than when I bought a few days ago. And Celsis is following my plan and going up very nicely indeed and I see no reason why it shouldn't head back up to the 240 area at which point I'll either take profits or if it breaks through, hold on.

The Provident Financial short is going OK, and despite a bit of strength in today's up market still looks on the weak side to me and I feel there is still good potential downside.  

Monday 24th September

 It always amazes me how people give so much credence to what "financial experts", financial journalists and brokers have to say about companies!

Take Northern Rock! When the share price was 800p, an analyst at a top bank said it was time to buy the share "for your neighbour, your goldfish and your cat". He added it looked a great buy with a big dividend. Oooops!

In January The Times reckoned " a new era of bigger returns for shareholders" from a company "firing on all cylinders".

The Telegraph reckoned the profits warning in June offered "a buying opportunity" and " a risk investors should take". The Times said: "Jitters look overdone."

So when you read your papers always bear in mind these journalists have to fill space and often they have no more idea than you or me.
 

Markets

 Barring Northern Rock the market appears to be very strong indeed generally. I am tempted to get stuck into a FTSE short if it struggles to get above 6500. Could be a crucial area.

So I've also bought IG Index, the spreadbet firm. (IGG)

I thought it would be a nice touch of irony to buy IG with one of their rivals spreadbetting firms, Cantor Index! So I bought live for £20 at 375p. Target 440 stop 330.

Spreadbetting firms do really well in volatile times. They should make a profit on every trade made and with the number of trades booming this year as also the number of accounts opening, while IG doesn't look cheap, medium term, if it keeps opening accounts at the current rate it will indeed start to look cheap! Attendees look to be right for now as the shares are at the moment higher by 5p than when I bought live on Friday.

Today I bought Celsis (CEL). (This came second in the vote).

I have made money on this a few times and I bought 3,000 shares today at 206.4p. Target 240 stop 190.

Celsis is an interesting little company that provides lab servies to drug companies - profits are booming and its last statement was very positive. What's even better is it's been trading in a 200-240 range so it is near the bottom of that. If it gets back to 240p, I'd consider taking profits though if it went through there that would be very bullish. A tight stop because if it dipped below 190 I would guess something was up. At some point I would imagine it would make a good fit as a buyout for any number of companies. Downside for me is reporting in dollars which is weak.

I sold Boot on the 20th at 237.66 to bank a profit of £129 on the 231 pos and £456 on the other. Main reason the inability to get above the 250 area. However it is coming back and it looks like it may start trading in a 215-250 range which I might try and play. I still feel it looks cheap so expect to be a buyer again soonish.

Venture has been very disappointing - seems such a good one on paper but the market in it has been poor for a while so losses taken on the 20th on the spreads at 721 for a loss of £970 and 719.5p on the normal pos for a loss of £107. I always try not to take losses of more than £1,000. However I played this badly and should have exited earlier. Bad boy.

Elsewhere Wellstream continues to be a big winner for me. It entered the FTSE 250 today and has made me many thousands. Every time I think about taking profit it keeps going up.

The Provident short is now in a small profit. Game Group is now looking very good though I am a little tempted to think about taking profits. I think 205 is the magic number for it to bust through. Nice profit building. Carclo has bounced strongly off 100p.

Fenner's looking exciting now it seems to have conquered 250 and is very strong today. I think with a fair wind it could hit 270p.  

Wednesday 19th September

 Last night we visited another school for Christopher - of course a posh private one (look the state schools in London are the pits). There were canapes, champagne and wine. (It was an open evening).

 It looked all right, lots of extremely posh and rich parents. Blokes who wear ties with big knots and a lot of ladies who lunch (and have babies). Still, we'd had enough after 15 mins and managed to find a back exit to leg it when we ran into the headmistress.

 "Hum," she said scarily. "I am about to make a speech in a couple of minutes, I trust you are going to stay?" "Er, yes, of course," we spluttered.

 So, well we stayed. Except she opened with: "What do you expect from our school?" To which I whispered a bit too loudly: "A big bill?" I don't think me and her are going to be the best of friends. She fluffed her powerpoint presentation a few times. We then managed to escape. I have no idea, we have a number of other schools to visit. How do you choose?

 On Tuesday I decided to cave in and get my passport "certified" by a solicitor as requested by Barclays. This means he just signs a copy of my passport and gets £30. "Well, that's £30 back on the £500 I lost buying Northern Rock shares, " he said cheerfully. "The first shares I ever bought..."

 Well, if that was ever a reason to steer clear of them..... "They'll come back to seven quid," he said uncertainly, looking to me for approval. I decided I'd better just change the subject and not mention stop losses.....

 So I've send it to Barclays Stockbrokers on the basis that they sent me a letter ominiously declaring "full services may not be available" if they don't get the documentation proving who I am. This is despite me being a customer for 15 years! They ought to bloody know who I am by now!

 I mean, as if I've been money laundering via my ISAs and PEPs for 15 years! As usual us innocents have to pay while these silly regulations and all the hassle and of course these ludicrous regulations do nothing at all to stop real criminals. The solicitor completely agreed! "Certified passports are a complete waste of everyone's time and mean nothing," he said.

 However I have not sent them any documentation for Mrs NT to see what they would do next if documentation wasn't sent. It doesn't matter so much if they freeze her Isas as I don't trade them that often. It will be interesting to see what they do!!! Will keep you all in touch!! Wonder if I could sue? That might be fun...

 The Northern Rock fallout continues! I have a feeling those people especially pensioners sitting on big heaps of cash they have saved all their lives are still worried. They don't trust the banks anymore and definitely not the policitians.

 They worry now that when they need it one day they may not be able to get hold of all their money. And who can blame them for worrying?

 Oh dear, the Lib Dems. Dear, oh dear... their great plan to tax the rich. Anyone knows if you tax the rich hard, wealth just goes to another country and along with it investment and jobs. Someone tell the Lib Dems to look at history!

 I'm spending a lot of time trying to avoid the TV guides so I don't see what's happening in The Sopranos - I have to wait till it comes on CH4 as I missed the first 2 eps of the new series! Anyone who has missed this brilliant series should get the DVD set from the beginning. You are in for a treat!

Markets

 Goodness me - the rollercoaster ride is back. But just because they cut by a half in the USA it doesn't mean the problems out there are going to go away. So I treat today's rise with a bit of suspicion!

 So on the basis of my current practice of selling or shorting when all else is buying and buying when all are selling, I've taken some more profits today, done a short, and I also picked up a couple of (I think) small cap bargains.

 Buys first, then sells. Looks like it's time for me to get back into Waterman (WTM) one I played successfully last time and I think a nice bounce is on the cards.

 I picked up 2,500 shares this morning at 165p. Target 190p stop 155p. I rate the management of this one and it looks really cheap to me. I'm going reasonably short-term though would consider longer-term if the price stays strong.

 One of my favourites got hammered this week - Carclo - (CAR) so I took the chance to pick some more up at what looks like a good price and I bought 4,000 shares at 101.65p yesterday. Target 130 stop 95p.

 This one has boomed since I orignally bought in the late 80s. The recent route looks overdone and there looks to be strong support at 100p. All bets are off for me with the above two should the market start falling again a lot.

 I decided to take profits in the Paragon short at 297 yesterday banking a really excellent profit for a short of £3,170! My reasoning was, well firstly the company says it hasn't really been affected like the Rock has.

 Secondly it's just too good a profit not to bank! I suspect 300p may be a strong support area now for Paragon and I thought I'd quit while the going was good.

 I took profits in Corin selling at 626.06p yesterday to bank a nice £452. I bought this one on a major panic day and it worked out well. I'm selling because it has really hit a brick wall at 630p. Total profit banked for the site today is £3,622 - which pushes total profits for the site up well above £400,000.

 With the market up so strongly today it's looking nearly time to short the FTSE 100 as a bit of a hedge against longs because really as I said have the problems gone away? So I am thinking about it!

 I did short Provident Financial (PFG) (one of my favourite and most profitable shorts this year) today for a tenner at 899. Target 850 stop 920. It's struggling at the moment and I thought I'd take advantage of the rise.

 So there we are, some profits banked, a short open, one or two bargains bought. Elsewhere the portfolio still looks good. Especially pleased with the big profits now building in Oilexco. Looking very good on the break over 700p.

 Wellstream just continues to do the business and is sharply higher again today and it looks like there's at least another 50p in there for me. BH Macro has also been a big star.

 Most of my holds are in a very nice profit. It's been an excellent couple of months for me with in particular the bids for Sondex and Domestic and General being the highlights. I suppose some of the shorts also turned out very well too as I've banked well over £10,000 in short profits recently. So for now I remain an extremely happy investor/trader!

Monday 17th September

Had a busy weekend - we managed to get a babysitter so went out on Saturday night for an excellent Thai meal and a movie.

The movie was "Knocked Up" which was pretty good and worth a look, quite a few laughs.

It finished quite late and we'd parked the car quite a way away so we wandered down Fulham Broadway watching the 20 somethings getting wasted. As we passed one pub a girl came running out and immediately spewed up just in front of me. She just missed! She kept going, a little like the fat diner in the Monty Python movie "The Meaning of Life". She got quite a cheer from the lads across the road.

One pissed lad was standing in the road with no trousers or pants on "flashing" at cars that went by. Made me feel pretty good as he wasn't up to much! Anyway we both agreed we were glad our 20s are in the rear view mirror!

One thing that's come out of the Northern Rock debacle is the revelation that is your bank goes bust the most you can get back of your savings is £34,000. I never knew that and I'm sure a lot of you didn't know that either...

It certainly seems sensible to spread savings though several banks if you have more than £33,000.

Amazing to see the queues outside the branches. One thing this tells you: the public don't believe a word politicians say!

In fact the moment the dodgy-looking Chancellor stated everyone's money was safe there was a mass stampede towards the branches. I get the feeling there is going to be a lot of cash sitting in socks under the bed across the country.

I think we can forget a winter election now. And I also have a feeling Gordon Brown's chickens are going to come home to roost and he wasn't prudent at all but allowed people to build up all kind of debt.

I suspect buy to let is the next thing round the corner and those that borrowed heavily to buy rental investments may suffer next. I think if I had a property to sell I'd be getting it on the market pronto.

Markets

   Well, thank goodness I sold off a lot of stuff last week and took my profits. It did seem the sensible thing to do at the time and that is certainly the case today. Some of the small caps are getting hit as investors take fright that we are all doomed (thanks to Fraser from Dad's Army).

Personally I don't mind it coming back a bit more - I have plenty of cash on the sidelines and I can see plenty of bargains already appearing out there and I hope to get stuck in again though waiting for a good wave of panic.

I hope to buy at rock bottom prices at a panic height. I don't think that's been reached yet so I've been sitting on my laurels.

So apart from that buy of Telecom Plus (and one that's worked out very well for my SIPP) I haven't really bought anything this month but done a shedload of selling and that's proved the right move.

However I do feel I should have been doing a lot of shorting but I'll blame that on the holiday as I was about to get stuck in but felt if I had I'd have been sitting in my hotel room monitoring shorts all day and I wanted a relaxed holiday and sod the money!

Anyhow I happened to be sitting scoffing lunch when Dragon results came in. They were pretty good.. however the market seemed to think in the minutes after the report that while they were indeed good, for the time being the recent rises take a a lot of it into account.

So I waited a bit just to see if there were going to be some hefty buyers and there weren't, so I sold some at 238.25p and hung onto some of them too longer-term. Seemed about the right thing to do.3

For website purposes then the 216p position is sold for a profit of £547 and the 214p position for a profit of £481 making total profits £1,028. I hold onto the other position longer-term and I'd expect to buy back more in Dragon quite soon. That banked profit takes the website profits now to over £400,000 for the first time.

My Paragon short has really come up trumps - it's halved and I'm up more than £3,000 and very tempted to take profits any moment especially as it is coming up as I write.

Elsewhere pretty good considering the market is poor today. Most of the portfolio holds up reasonably well, in particular well done Wellstream for showing so much strength. I feel quite relaxed after my sell-off last week and I'm really just putting my feet up, watching and waiting for a good time to buy up some beaten up stock that's been oversold...

Tuesday 4th September

  I'm really sorry and I know a lot of you will be crying, upset and disorientated, but this is the last update till Friday September 14th!

That's because tomorrow I'm off to sunny Portugal for a family holiday.

I really don't know what to suggest you do while I'm not here. Maybe stare longingly at the site, just counting the hours down till I'm back. Or on the bright side, why not do a supermarket shop early? Take up a new hobby? Perhaps read something really exciting like The Best of Point and Figure Charting? The main thing is to be brave and live with it. I'll be back soon. Promise. It'll seem like no time at all.

If you have really bad withdrawal symptoms try counselling - it's about £40 an hour.

I know what happened in Portugal recently and Christopher will not be out of our sight for a second at night and we'll be sleeping in the same room - I think we'll let him stay up and eat with us so we'll have early mornings and early nights I guess but that's fine.

It looks like a fabulous resort with a brilliant kids club so we are really hoping Christopher heads off there for some of the time to give us some "adult time" (Oooh missus).

Taking lots of books and mags, sun cream and definitely no books about finance or share trading!

There is internet at the hotel in Portugal so I'm taking the laptop though it is a holiday so I will try and avoid doing too much trading while over there! However it's good to have the option!

Any trades made will be reported when I get back late next week.

So it's packing time.. PMT? No.. not THAT PMT - Passport, Money, Tickets, that's the main thing. Or of course it could stand for Passport, Money, Toddler...

Suncream, clothes, all these things to remember. Someone looking after the cat? Papers cancelled? Milk bottles out? Taxi arrives at something like 4.30am.... Full holiday report of course on my return.

Mrs NT is still coming to terms with the surprise new car and is now finding her feet in the new Toyota Prius and we're both still dreaming of that amazing meal we had on Sunday at the Duck in Bray...

Markets

 Well, it'll be interesting to see whether I make any trades on my holidays. I will try and resist the urge and am more likely to get out of something gone bad than maybe make any new buys but who knows till I'm there. Maybe it'll rain one day and there'll be nothing else to do! But it's good I can get online so need to panic about open positions while there.

Meanwhile two new buys.

I bought 2,500 Safestore shares today (SAFE) at 191.7p - target 250 stop 160. Looks an interesting self-storage play - management say demand for self-storage is growing and I've bought this one medium to long term - interesting that the CEO thinks the market misunderstands the sector and that Safestore should be considered as an operating company with property assets and not a property company with operating assets.

Self-storage shares have taken a knock recently and for me this is the one to get into that could rise the most.

And yesterday I bought 250 shares in Domestic and General (DGG) at 1207. Target 1400 stop 1130. Some of you may remember I made a lot of money on these buying at something like a tenner and selling at £14 when Homeserve announced a likely bid.

They pulled out and the shares have come back but there are other bidders sniffing around according to DGG. So at around this price it seemed to me worth getting in now ahead of possible bid action again with a bid price likely to be at 1400 is my guess.

So still beaming over the Sondex bid where on paper I'm sitting on profits of over £15,000 personally. With the bid at 460 it's really a question of whether to bank profits slightly under 460 or wait for the 460 in November. Or, indeed wait in case there is the very outside chance of a counter bid...

So I've decided to download some but not all! The short-term spreadbet worked so well I've taken profits at 454p to bank £4,350. And I also sold a few at 453.5p -

So for site purposes I'll close out the last 3 Sondex positions for profits of £875 and £1,850 and £2,955 for a total profit banked on Sondex today of £10,030 which still leaves the last position open just in case of a counter bid which on paper has profits of £3,675.

Let's just say I think I fell in love with Sondex! I also sold recent buy Lookers at 166.58p this morning to bank a profit of £204 on the basis that sellers were coming in around 170p and its rise for the moment seemed to be capped.

That's total profits banked today of £10,234

Elsewhere things still looking good. Waterman continues its excellent rise and up yet again today, same comment to Boot H which continues its good recovery. Dmatek produced a "short-term pain for long-term gain" type report and I stay in.

RM made very good gains yesterday afternoon and good to see it breaking through 200p again. Wellstream holds onto nearly all of its recent heavy rises. A great statement from Scott Wilson sees the price gain heavily today.

Hill and Smith keeps on motoring well and Dragon Oil looks good through needs to break through 226 to progress up to next stop, 250.

So I leave for holiday having had a brilliant couple of weeks. Of course with the recent volatility I shall remain vigilant from abroad and I'm considering another FTSE short and will almost definitely do it if we hit 6400ish again.

Monday 3rd September

 Firstly some good news to start with - though I leave for Portugal for a week on Wednesday there will be an update tomorrow (Tuesday) before I go! There, isn't that generous? Well we managed to get toddler into nursery for an extra day so we can get packing and so I should have time for a special update!  

Now where was I? Oh yes, it was Mrs NT's birthday on Sunday and she ended up having a rather good day.

First off and most surprisingly she got a new car for her birthday. A brand new Toyota Prius which is the one she wanted - she thought we were getting one early next year but I actually bought it in July! It got delivered the middle of last week and it cost me a fortune in parking fees to keep it on a nearby street so she wouldn't get suspicious.

I put all the documents into a big folder which she got wrapped up. It took a while for it to sink in as she thought I'd bought her a filofax at first! Anyway Grandad was present so we grabbed toddler Christopher and all had a drive in the new car to Starbucks to celebrate.

The Prius is a hybrid so it runs on electricity till about 20mph when the petrol engine kicks in. It's a very nice ride and a good feel to it too.

Now remember on Friday I said she was getting a mystery trip? Well I can now reveal what it was. Of course on the way I had to play the most appropriate piece of music to go with the mystery which had to be "Destination Unknown".

I knew she was pretty worried about the mystery trip. She had some visions of an awful gig in a muddy field somewhere or some kind of action/adventure thing.

Her fears deepened as I headed off the M4 for a sign to "Maidenhead Central" which obviously did not sound very inspiring. She felt better when we headed towards Windsor for a bit but her brow furrowed again when we headed in the Maidenhead direction. What she was really hoping was: "Please let it not be a bungee jump..."

Then when we turned off the Maidenhead road towards a little village "Bray" she sussed it.

"Yes, I said.."You're right". She went crazy as she always wanted to go there..

There was what's been voted the best restaurant in the world and it has four michelin stars - "The Duck".

This amazing restaurant really gives anyone a one off superb gastronomic experience and we gorged ourselves for four brilliant hours on the tasting menu.

You get 12 courses of food you just couldn't find anywhere else. And it's real theatre as your waiter explains the thinking behind each course. For example: There is "Snail Porridge" - sounds horrible? Delicious!

There was a fantastic seafood dish (you get headphones to listen to the sea while eating it) - my favourite was salmon poached with liquorice! Pigeon with black pudding was a triumph. Mrs NT's fave was the Mango and fir puree. It all ends up with "Breakfast" - parsnip cereal with parsnip milk followed by nitro-scrambled egg and bacon ice cream!

So it's sensational but obviously not cheap at £115 a head. Worth every penny for an extra special treat. You have to book three months in advance and here's the link to their website.. you can click menu to see all the amazing dishes we tasted. www.fatduck.co.uk

Stuffed to the gills we got back to the Prius and the back to work traffic didn't bother us as it gave us the chance to try out all the Prius features while going at 20mph along the M4 jams on electric power. Our display told us we'd averaged 63 miles per gallon on the journey!

Toddler, Grandad and Mrs NT's sister over from New York welcomed us back - I collapsed in a heap and fell asleep... till 7.30am this morning!

Markets

 Well, goodness I've had a few good runs in the past but the last few days have been quite exceptional and the portfolio has gained huge amounts over the last few days, so I am one happy chap.

Before I explain the happiness, one new buy and that's Dragon Oil, well I should say a top up of 2,200 shares at 216.39 on Friday afternoon. Target 255 stop 190. DGO is one of my favourite smaller oil stocks and one I've always felt that a bid could emerge. Anyway it's been very strong recently and I like the buying volume coming in so it seems a good time to add!

I also bought an AIM oil-services company for my SIPP - more details on that to those who subscribe to the lunchtime e-mail.

So what can I say about Sondex and how glad I am I made that "short-term" buy at 309 last week which has yielded a pretty much definite £4,500!

Well, the Sondex story looks nearly over with the bid coming in at 460p. First bought this share at the float at 130 and have traded it/made money on it ever since but it looks like it's now bitten the dust with a cash offer which looks like it'll go through. There's no great rush to sell as there is 460 on the table - there is a minute chance of a counter bid so for right now I shall hold onto the great profits which are nearly £15,000.

Some of my holds reported today - all good!! Hill and Smith is the star report, what an amazing company this is. You may remember I picked this one up during the market turmoil at 335p when all were selling and that's proved a good move with the shares hitting 400p today. And to me it still looks undervalued despite the rise this morning. I suspect I will now hang onto these longer-term.

Another good report this time from Lookers that I bought very recently - shares are up 10p with the company appearing to be going the right way!

MTL Instruments reported some very nice figures, I think I'll hold these now long term because at some point I can see a bid here like happened with a similar company, Isotron. A nice well-run company by the look of it, growing in size at just the right tempo.

Waterman reported too - well, a good -looking acquisition anyway - buying Furness Green for £1.2m - and the shares have responded very positively.

Elsewhere it's another excellent day with some good risers.. Boot H is one of them and has leapt up today, I still believe fair value is nearer 300p then 250.

Wellstream continues to be a star, similar comment to BH Macro. Game Group has had a few good days.

Friday's top up Renold continues to go well after the CEO's good buy of shares. I continue to be very happy with my investments!

Friday 31st August

It's going to be an interesting weekend!

It's Mrs NT's birthday on Sunday and her present is a mystery trip somewhere exciting. Obviously I can't reveal where I'm taking her but all will be revealed here on Monday!

But it's not McDonalds, Chessington Zoo, the chip shop or Acton Cinema.

She's been trying to guess but she's got nowhere close so far... Of course she's worried it might be something she really hates.

"Nothing to do with helicopters is it?" she asked anxiously. "I'm not going to get wet am I.. nothing to do with the river?"

I think she reckons I'm taking her on one of those adventure things. She's way off the mark!

Anyhow she'll find out the answer to the mystery trip she's going on.. and you'll all find out what it was on Monday afternoon!

Grandad's coming down for the weekend then sister Julie drops in from New York so it's going to be a busy weekend.

Then next Wednesday we leave for a Portugal beach holiday with toddler Christopher who is getting excited about going up in a plane..

Of course the poor lad doesn't know yet he has to experience the hell that is Heathrow. Heh, I know why not demolish all the shops and make the whole thing a terminal. Pretend for once the most important thing is for people to get through security fast, get on their plane on time and have a good experience. Of course we all know the most important thing is to get us in the shops for as long as possible.

In fact really BAA is probably quietly very happy about Heathrow hell. The more delays the more money we spend in their shops and the more profits come in. Lovely!

Number one TV show for toddler right now is "Wonder Pets". If your kid is tired of Thomas and Charlie and Lola try this show on Nick Jr.

It's crazy, painful to listen to but it keeps him quiet for half an hour when I'm trying to trade and ensures I can click a buy button without being stopped by a sticky mitt grabbing my trading fingers.

 Laurent writes:
My question is how do you decide to pull the pin on a stock that is giving you some profits but hasn't hit your target yet. As I'm 26 and still learning ( Been trading for a year and half) I have found myself with profits, say 14% but my target was about 20% and so I didn't sell. Then the market takes the profits away quickly and I'm left with -5%. This has happened to me a few times in the last few months. I trade spread betting so I can set stops but over the last few months I haven't been using them cause i read this stupid book where this high flying forex trader said stock prices go down to your stops so he didn't use them. I know I should use stops now but I'd like to see what you have to say about this.

Hi Laurent! There isn't really an answer to your question. For me personally targets are a reminder to me that maybe this is either where I should be taking profits or if the share looks cheap still, buy more. It depends on whether I'd bought it shorter-term or longer-term and market conditions at the time. Sometimes I'll sell way before a target is reached if say buying has stopped coming in or I felt I made a mistake in buying it. The main thing for me is to try and run profits for as long as I can. That's been more difficult recently with the volatility though that'll calm down at some point.

I'm afraid in the end it's probably down to experience. Sticking to stop losses is the best way to protect capital and that's for sure.

Marco writes:

In regards to your comment in yesterday's update, I opened a spread betting account with about a month or so ago and was asked to provide the same proof of identity certified by a lawyer. They are probably required by law to carry out this checking to avoid money laundering, I would assume. I did not want to pester the lawyer in the company I work for for the 10th time with this type of request so I did nothing.

As expected, a short time later I get a letter from them saying my account was opened already

Thanks Marco - well I'm doing nothing to see what happens!!  

Markets

Well, it's been an excellent week with some pretty good profits banked to say the least! Whatever Mr Bush says later today may determine the fate of the markets next week so let's hope he puts on a good show and doesn't screw it up!

A new buy today, well a top up to an existing holding. I already hold Renold (RNO) at 75p and 90p yielding a paper profit of nearly £5,000 and it might seem odd buying more today - 3,500 shares at 134. But this one hasn't done much for a while and it's on the move again. It's been a great turnaround story and it may have more legs especially now the the CEO has bought another 16,000 shares to add to his 171,000.

This company is off most people's radars but is certainly on mine. Targetting 170p, stop 120.

It's a long long time since I was in a share that warned. That's because before I buy a share my major concern is: is there any chance of a warning and if there is even the slightest chance I don't buy. However the odd one gets through my defences and it happened today with Molins. My view with warnings it to get out and stay out and take the loss before it gets any worse. Anyway I did what I preach and I sold my 3,000 shares just now at 178.77 to take a loss of £697.

As I believe, I love to take small losses and big gains! As long as I'm taking losses in the hundreds and gains in the thousands I remain happy. It's when it's the other way round you start to lose. Given I've banked nearly £10,000 for the site this week that's acceptable.

My recent short-term trade in Sondex is already nearly £1,500 in profit after an excellent climb today. It's stopped around here in the past but if it can muster some strength through 360, I'm hoping for a climb through to 400. Sondex hasn't really gained as much as some of the other oil services companies so it could be its time now.

Corin continues its excellent climb and it's now nearly 100 points higher than my recent buy when everyone was panic selling. Also going well these last two days is Dragon Oil.

Boot H managed to get through the sticky 240 area and my target is slowly getting into sight.

What can I say about the wonderful BH Macro? Now nearly 150 points higher than my buy - it just keeps on going up whatever the market is doing. Oh how I wish I'd bought more!

Similar comments to Wellstream which has been a real wonder share for me. Looks like I banked profits of £4,500 a bit too quickly but very glad I bought some of them back so still riding some profits there.

Wednesday 29th August

  Phew! I survived my very long weekend of being a single parent while Elizabeth was away in Ireland.

It's far more stressful than dealing shares: all the poo, wee, demands, baths, clothes on and off, tantrums in the park.. and that's just me..

Still we had a good bonding time. I went to lots of parks with him. Played, read stories, watched crap kids tv, and lots more besides.

In one week's time we are off to Portugal.

More finance irritation! One of my brokers has just written to me demanding proof of who I am!

This despite the fact I've had an account with them for 15 years! And they gave me a "Personal account executive" who I have spoken to and e-mailed many times.

So now I have to send them a copy of my passport or some such "certified" by a vicar, lawyer, "notary", or policeman.

Yeah, but what if you don't know any of those? Do I just pop to the local church and ask the vicar to do it or would being agnostic damage my chances? Should I ask the nearest policeman? And what the hell is a "notary"?

I could ask a lawyer.. but the bill would bankrupt me.

I suddenly thought - well they can bugger off! Let's see what happens if I don't do anything. What will they do? Send in the armed guards? Sell all my shares and give the money to Gordon Brown? Make me watch the last week of this year's grimly tedious Big Brother? Or do the worst they can: force me to listen to Davina McCall on Radio 2! I'll let you know what threats are made when the letters arrive!

Markets

 I'm mighty pleased with the performance of my shares this week given the big fall in the FTSE - the portfolio has actually gained very nicely thanks to a number of good performers.

One of which was my biggest holding by some way - Wellstream. Absolutely cracking results today. The shares shot higher yesterday in anticipation of good results.

The results did not disappoint but... it's been an amazing performer and with a reasonably quick gain of nearly 200 points I was in a bit of a quandry. Would people sitting on massive profits like me take them and drag the price way down? Or were there still buyers even at this much higher price the rise this morning. I decided my strategy would be to sell some if they started to fall and buy some back if buyers came in. Which is exactly what I did!

So I sold some at 572.5p which banks a total profit of £4,703 for the site. (£3,640 and £1,063). I also took some massive spreadbet profits on it personally and away from the website I banked over £10,000 in addition to the web gain. So a big smile on the face this morning.

And then as buyers came back in, I bought a few back, buying 1,000 shares at 564.9p - target 690 stop 540. That's with a view to getting out if sellers start a run.

It all might sound a bit odd but when you're under pressure you have to make quick decisions. I have also kept quite a few that I have for my pension untouched as a long-term hold.

I also couldn't resist taking the profits that I'd made so quickly in NCC and sold this morning at 360.1 to bank a profit of £781 for the site. I actually think this one is still undervalued so I expect to buy it back at some point. But it was too lovely a quick profit to ignore for now!

I've also taken some lovely short profits. Informa seems strong now so I closed this morning at 532 to bank a £1,400 profit. And I came out of Provident Financial short at 859p to bank a decent £1,220.

That's a total profit banked for the site today of a massive £8,104! (Thanks Wellstream!)

Finally after all that two buys to report!

I bought Lookers (LOOK) 2,500 shares today at 158.42p. Target 180 stop 145p. I think this car dealer looks a bit oversold - they announced today that they've been given the nod by Ford which should really help business. This sector has been down in the dumps but I wonder whether a decent bounce is due. So I've gone in medium term but with quite a tight stop loss in case of a downturn.

And I bought some more Boot H on results. These were brilliant results but of course the shares went down as shares often do on results. I just think these shares should be a lot higher so I actually bought on the weakness and added a further 2,000 shares in BHY at 231.23p. Target 270 stop 210.

Boot's pretax profit jumped 62%, dividend is up more than 15% and the company looks very confident. What the hell it is doing down today I don't know. Maybe it's the subprime business but Boot isn't really affected by that. Whatever, I have a feeling value will come out soon enough and it'll head back up to the 280 area where it belongs at the very least in my opinion.

Elsewhere Corin is the big star of the day. Some readers may remember I bought some on the day everyone was selling at 535 - that looks pretty good with the shares now pushing 625p!

Recent buy Local Shop has been going very well and up 15 points since I bought - it's settled nicely higher and I think there will be another run up.

I noticed my Venture spreadbet has tumbled well below the stop loss. I just missed it. Lesson: when you have a lot of positions open don't take your eye off the ball. Which I did. Given I missed it and it's a good company I still hold but with a view to outing if it goes any further.

Renold starts to rise again after a period of doing little. Sondex has broken through the 330 mark again and looks capable of a good rise - still holding the short-term trade as well as the long-term one.

Mouchel Parkman has been quietly rising all week and has conquered the 400 level again for me.

So all in all an extremely good week, let's hope this continues!  

Friday 24th August

  As it's a bank holiday weekend fairly obviously there'll be no update on Monday! But I'll be back with an update on Wednesday (from about 2pm here).

I have definitely got a "challenging" weekend ahead. That is, I am alone with my toddler. Help!!!!

Mummy is off to Ireland for the weekend as her sister is a bit poorly leaving us boys alone.

So I reckon me and him may as well eat loads of crap, smoke fags, make a mess and watch blokey TV. But quickly clean up before she gets back on Monday...

I've been pretty sharp: I've booked the cleaner for first thing Monday! I guess we'll be going to the park, maybe the local kids play centre and who knows what other fun.

But one thing I know for sure: I shall be spending the weekend dealing with lots of pooh and wee.. hopefully mainly from the potty and not from the floor!

I hope you all enjoy your bank holiday weekends - no shares going up or down on Monday and we can all relax.. heavenly. In fact I think the markets should be open 10am-4pm with half-day closing on Wednesdays. Wouldn't that be more civilised? I also think the Dow should be closed down then we can all have some peace.

Apparently the weather's going to be great so it might be a last chance to get out and about and enjoy some good sunshine this year.

We're off to Portugal in early September so at least we are guaranteed a week of sunshine soon..

Markets

 I continue to use the cash I have on the sidelines to buy stock that was sold off too hard and I think I bought a couple of amazing bargains yesterday.

First is one I've had my eye on for quite a while which is Local Shopping Group (LSR) - and I bought 6,000 shares at 121.32p yesterday followed by another 4,000 at 121.5p Target 180 stop 105. It looked an amazing bargain but I was waiting for some volume to come in before buying and that came in bigtime from the kick off yesterday.

This was a disastrous new issue a while back, starting life at 178p where all the institutions bought and it tumbled for quite a while as commercial property grew out of favour. But... this company in May estimated its assets at £215m... its market cap is now only £120m after the sell off. That looks too big a discount to me even if that net figure has come back since then. So I've bought simply because I think the shares are way oversold and there is plenty of upside. Judging by the volume it looks like others have latched onto this too.

It's just bought Gilfin Property and it appears to be buying back shares which I guess means management believes the shares are undervalued too. There is strong support at 117 and I can't see much downside unless a bear market kicks in. I was slightly worried as the discount seemed too good to be true but the shares are racing higher now as I write so maybe it was simply oversold!

Another oversold share for me has to be Boot (BHY) and I've bought 2,500 shares at 219.4p. Target 260 stop 200. As with other property shares it got slammed but unlike some of the others it's not quite recovered yet which seems unfair given excellent fundamentals. Well, I'll know one way or another whether this was a good buy quite soon as results are next week! I suspect these results will be top notch and will push the price up substantially in my opinion.

I sold Carphone Warehouse yesterday at 344.14p - I've had a good run of it since I bought when all were selling and that banks a quick £476 profit. Looks like it might end up being a nice trading share!

Elsewhere it's been an excellent couple of days with all my recent buys continuing to run higher which is even better as the FTSE hasn't risen much.

Hill and Smith is a very notable riser and that's looking a good price now! Corin is now trying to get over 600 so 535 also looks like a good price that I got. Sondex has continued to rise since my new buy and though it was supposed to be short-term I'm hanging on in there until the rise stops!

NCC is static today but that's after a tremendous rise since I bought at 308 - it's now 370! Waterman too has been performing well and has risen nicely over the last two days.

BH Macro just continues to go up with profits really coming in on that one now.

Wellstream reports next week... I suspect it's going to be a really good one and that there is at least another 20% uplift to come, we shall see!

So all in all I'm extremely happy with the way I handled the recent turmoil and found some nice oversold ones - the profit in the last week has been tremendous!  

Wednesday 22nd August

  I usually turn down invites to appear on TV like CNBC and CNN etc.. I just don't really fancy being one of those "talking heads". Also I'm almost bound to say something that'll get me into trouble.

Questions I'm sure would include: "How do you think private investors are feeling at the moment?"

The only possible answer could be... "Well, pretty pissed off..." And "Where do you see the markets going - down or up?" "Er..... dunno....."

Having said that I was approached a while back to host a show that was a cross between Big Brother, dealing in shares and The Apprentice, but they couldn't quite crack the format - now that would have been fun.

But had an invite from "Start Your Business" TV to discuss , er, well, starting your own business which will be filmed tomorrow. Yes, never heard of this channel either and the show will get watched by probably just me and the friends of the producers! Still, they are only up the road for me and it'll only take an hour so I thought I'd give it a go.

Talking of talking heads my sister was on TV last night on BBC 2 on a show discussing the Edinburgh Festival where she is head of comedy. They came and filmed her for a couple of hours. Amount of footage used? 18 seconds! That's TV for you - they edit you and can make you look as good or as bad as they like.

Remember the guy who went on Dragons Den with the wobbly chair fixer... he was laughed out of the Den with no money!

Well good news for him, his sales are now over £1million and it looks like he may have cracked the American market. Remember Rachel Elanaugh whose company collapsed spectacularly.. her comment was it was "the most ridiculous idea" she'd ever heard of.

Just shows you how experts in any field can be wrong and if you have a dream - go for it whatever anyone says.

My son has become a skilled impersonator for a 2.5 year old... He can take off anyone at his nursery, just say the name, he'll take the piss!

He does a brilliant one of one of the kids there and sadly he also does a very good one of me. Do I REALLY do that? Goodness knows what he'll be like once he's a teenager, I can see some horrid impressions of me and the Mrs coming up...

Markets

Well, things seem to have calmed down a bit and my bravery in buying what I felt were companies that were oversold has been paying off, quite dramatically in some cases. More on that in a minute!

As it stabilises I carry on hunting for oversold companies to buy.

Another company that seemed oversold in the recent turmoil was Harvey Nash (HVN) so I bought 8,000 at 67.5p on Monday afternoon. Target 81 stop 60.

It's been hit way more savagely than other shares mainly because the market perceives if a recession kicks in recruitment companies will struggle. But I think that fear is all in the price for now so that's why I bought.

In any event it's only worth £50m which seems a pretty low rating and I can really see little downside from here for the moment. It's just bought Irish company Rescon IT and that should be earnings enhancing very quickly. My guess is the next report will be excellent and it seemed to me a good time to buy on such weakness. So it's tucked away with a medium-term view.

I also made a short-term spread bet in Sondex (SDX) - a long-term hold of mine that again appears oversold and I've added this short-term trade while keeping my long-term holdings. I bought early this morning for £30 a point at 309p. Short-term target 330 stop 300. It looks way oversold from its highs of 370ish. Not sure how long I'll hold for yet.

Elsewhere I'm delighted that my "brave" buys appear to have paid off for now (I do remain cautious however).

In fact the last seven "brave" buys are all showing decent profits already. The star of the show though is NCC where my buy at 308 the other day is looking good with the price now up in the 370 area which is about 20%! Very pleased with that indeed. If only I'd bought more!

Also going very well is Carphone Warehouse which is up very nicely too. And gold stars for other brave buy risers Waterman, N Mid, Hills, Corin, and Game Group. All of which are well up on my bargain basement buying prices I got during the sell-off last week.

BH Macro simply continues to be a star and carries on going up for me in good or bad markets - up a nice 16p today.

Dmatek, a great company I've held onto through all the turmoil is nicely up on a decent acquisition today - management are determined to grow this one and patience in holding I think will reward me.

Vislink continues to look desperately oversold is starting to creep back. MS International is a strong riser today and glad I held my nerve there. Got a nice big dividend cheque from Telecom Plus today.

So all in all I'm happy with the way I have played out the dramatic volatility in the markets so far. It's not over yet probably but I kept cool, didn't panic and I think made some reasonable decisions. As usual I don't expect to get everything right, but as long as I get 65% right, my capital will continue to increase over time.
 

Monday 20th August

  Oh dear, looks like we may have jinked Fulham!

We went along to our first football match and it was good fun though sadly our next-door neighbours Fulham lost 2-1.

We had slightly crappy seats (oh well they were the neighbour special offer at £15!) behind one of the goals. Trouble is every Time anyone came slightly near the goal everyone jumps up and you can't see a thing.

We scored first quite quickly and the fans were delighted. But then our goalkeeper made a terrible cockup and let one in, then they scored again. We scored but the ref disallowed it even though it was definitely over the line.

This led to crowd chants of "You fat bastard" - there were other chants too however as this is a family website I can't mention them. Those of you who've been to football games before probably have a pretty good idea...

Our goalscorer dislocated his knee which is a shame as he seemed to be the best player.

Mrs NT commented she was quite surprised the footballers weren't "more skilful" considering it was premier league. I said I thought Fulham and Middlesbrough probably were among the premier league's more crappy teams!

We managed to nip home at half time for tea which was handy as the hot dogs on offer in the ground looked a bit unappetising - as well as being £3.50!!

I didn't realise we had "uncovered" seats and was expecting to be rained on but luckily that held off till the game finished...

What I don't understand is why they don't have a ref up in the stands with instant replays. So when Fulham "scored" the "second" ref could have known within seconds that the ball did cross the line.

Same with the Chelsea penalty. If in doubt like in cricket the ref could refer to the ref in the stands for a decision based on a quick repplay of events. Could easily be done with 30 seconds.

Let's say each team could make 2 appeals to the second ref per game or something?

Anyway we'll probably go once or twice a year for something a bit different..

Christopher's been full of energy all weekend.. I have done so much "Jumping" on the sofa and running with him I'm completely knackered. He had a few friends round and they all played nicely. Except all little boys seem to want to torment cats. The poor cat is terrified of them and waits to be let in at 8pm once he's in bed. 

 Now a mail from a reader I print because it may have happened to some other readers and I thought his story was worth publishing without any need of comment from me..

"I have just came back from a week's holiday. I had no internet excess but I could tell by the news on TV that all was not well with the markets but I was on holiday to switch off and so that is what I did. I was expecting to see a loss of maybe 20k when I got back, what I came back to was a loss of 83k,a well known Victor Meldrew phrase springs to mind. In hindsight it would seem that I chose the worst possible week to take a break although when we booked up some months ago there was no way I could have foreseen last week's events.

My main loss comes from mxp which lost 55% of its value last week, I can not help but smile at the irony of my situation, I have sat for months with my finger on the sell button hoping to take advantage of just such a situation had I been home I would have made a fortune..so where do I go from here...well I have never been one to cry over spilt milk so moving swiftly on let's look at the positive side my losses such as they are only on paper so far, I have no leveraged positions and the market could rebound. Tomorrow I must go through my portfolio one share at a time and unemotionally sort out what to hold and what to sell and maybe stick a few possible bargains on my watch if the markets continue to fall I think it would be best to go flat until a clearer picture emerges. Somewhere down the line there will be bargains about and I will be back."

I'd like to thank this reader for the frank mail.
 

Markets

  Fascinating times. Are they going to go down some more or up some more?

Personally I would like a return to an orderly market which just goes up and down A BIT each day. Please. That would be nice. At the moment it's next to impossible for any rational investor to know what they should be doing.

Given I sold a lot of stuff off last week I now have a lot of cash. I am looking at cautiously spending a bit of the cash pile!

A little spending today!

First I bought NCC (NCC) this morning - 1,500 shares at 308p. Target 390 stop 290. I bought because it looked crazily oversold. An ambitious company in a good market just promoted to the main market from AIM - this represented a good-looking buying opportunity to me.

What I didn't expect was the quick rise after I bought! A couple of hours later it went to 325p! Must admit I'm tempted to buy a few more. The 308 was a gift though I could have got 304 if I'd been a bit quicker off the mark.

A little more cautious cash has gone into one I think I made a mistake in selling last week - North Midland Construction (NMD) - this is a nice little company that has held up remarkably well during the turmoil. I'm buying of course because I think there is upside but also given the way it held up in the sell off. Downside? Well there are only two market makers and a spread of 4%. 4% is my absolute maximum so it is only JUST allowable for me.

It's a kind of under the radar company that's been growing nicely for years. I am taking a little risk as it reports in the next few days so I hope it's a good one. I shall soon see whether this is a good move - or a silly one..

I bought 1,000 shares at 470p (they were already up 15p) Target 550 stop 400.

No sales today so far given the market appears to be stable for the second anyway.

Elsewhere very good performances so far for the I hope "brave buys" of last week.

Brave buys have been paying off with Game Group, Waterman, Corin, Hill and Smith and RM all reasonably higher already.

The star brave buy so far has been Carphone Warehouse now up nearly 25 points since my brave buy! Having said that I am wondering whether to take some quick profits there...

Big mention for Wellstream, this wonderful share has kept its value well and is my biggest holding currently, if the market improves I can see more upside so still holding firmly. There is big support at 505 on down days.

The Informa short still goes very well indeed.

So the strategy from here is keep a very close eye on things, keep plenty of cash ready to buy bargains and think about shorting the FTSE 100 again where my two previous shorts have paid off very handsomely.

In fact the shorts I put on recently have all performed really well as of course they should have done banking combined profits of over £9,000 for the site... it shows for me the ability to short though spreadbetting and covered warrants is vital for my kind of investing and has really helped to cover some of the losses of the last two weeks.  

Friday 17th August

  At last a policy from the Tories. And a good one! The scrapping of inheritance tax is long overdue - it hits families unfairly especially in London where often houses have to be sold off to meet huge tax demands.

The really good thing is Gordon Brown will be under pressure to match this policy and it's possible that it might make him scrap it or reduce it. That would be wonderful for so many people.

More than 40,000 families have to pay the tax every year and it must be distressing for those who have to sell family homes. Let's hope there will also be moves on capital gains tax as there are some mutterings.

The threshold should at least be raised to £50,000 enabling people to buy shares without getting taxed so badly.

Let's hope we hear some more policies soon....

Markets

 I don't think Arrrggghh really does it anymore, really it's various words I know anyone currently trading will be saying..

I've made a little experiment: given my sister is a multi millionaire and she doesn't care if she loses the money in her ISA I decided to not sell her shares. I want to see in say 6 months time to one year whether they would have come back and then be in profit again. Ie, how would a long-term view investor fare?

I'll let you all know early next year whether thinking about investment over a longer timescale and staying put in losing positions is a better move than selling up and buying back in. Fascinated to see what the answer is.

Funny to hear the "experts" talk on the news. They basically say: "it might be a great time to buy, or then again it might not.." which is very helpful!

There are quite a lot of trades to get through as you can imagine. So first here are a list of what I hope will turn out to be bargain buys and this is followed by some sales - profit taking and loss taking!

My strategy has continued to be to have some shorts open to bank some of the downside, do a little buying on all the weakness of strong companies that will bounce when normality is resumed, and keep hold of some of the best performers that have stayed relatively strong.

My view is you have to have a strategy in this volatile times. Or a plan of some kind. I have no idea whether mine is right, only time will tell! The one thing that's no good is running around like Corporal Jones shouting "Don't panic!" (while panicking.) I try and stay calm and logical and make the best choices I can. I've found level 2 exceptionally helpful.

So here we go.... it's taken me bloody ages! The tables will get updated over the weekend.

First the Ftse short I closed at 5863 early this morning - very pleased as that banks a £3,010 profit. That makes nearly £7,000 banked in profit from Ftse shorts since the down market began and a lot more on covered warrants which I don't cover on the site which mainly help to hedge my pension.

Now some more "brave buys" of shares that seem to have reached bargain levels

Corin (CRG) took a tumble yesterday and I sold as below. However it took a real tumble this morning and I've made a speculative buyback on weakness today for 500 shares at 535.7p. Target 585 stop 500

Carphone Warehouse (CPW) tumbled to a silly price this morning so I bought 1,500 at 312.42 Stop 295 Target 350.

Hill and Smith (HILS) is a lovely little company and it's fallen a lot and now looks a bargain. So I snapped up 1,200 shares today at 335.88p. Long term view. Target 420 stop 300.

Finally Waterman (WTM) - I sold stock as listed below and took a loss but I feel it is well oversold now and bought 3,000 today at 158p. Target 190 stop 150.

Now some sales... all driven by safety's sake and I will buy back if the market looks like properly turning. I have some regrets but capital preservation is important. So this is a mix of loss and profit-taking..
sales (all 16th)

crg 585.65 Profit £28
wtm 169.39 Loss £111, 1,023,563,607.
van 365.25 loss £432 and 540
rno 123.5 Profit £1,540 (keeping other positions there)
nmd 436 Loss £240
itrk 966.5 loss £28
Htg - 697 Profit £6,220

Comments. Not too bad with losses kept fairly small except for Waterman which must be my worst trade since Coffee Republic back in 1999! Guess it shows I'm only human... should have sold ages ago and broke various of my own rules. I have bought back lower as I feel the current valuation is silly now.

I feel sorry for selling some of them which are good companies but with the market as it is it seems foolish not to take small losses before they become bigger. Also I let greed get the better of me and I should have actually taken profits on some of these ages ago.

Nice end to my relationship with Hunting with a final profit banked of over £6,000. I've made an awful lot on this one since it was a new issue with my first buy at 170p! I reckon profits on that one have been more than £30,000 on various trades over the years. Thanks Hunting and I may be back soon.... I notice Creston is still in the table though I sold it many moons ago..me and Dale appear to have missed it - however as it is still there I have done a "pretend sale" at this morning's sell price of 120p and taken a hit for the site of £1,410. Seems only fair.

Recent brave buy Game is going well and RM holds up well too.

I've made a lot of effort to show you how I am coping in this tricky environment. I hope this makes the website even more interesting..

Who knows what's ahead but the main thing is not to be overexposed - too many have been caught out by having positions open they couldn't afford and many will have been getting margin calls from spreadbet firms.

If all this teaches anything it is: Never, ever play with money you can't afford to lose. it just is not worth it.#  

Wednesday 15th August

 Well, we had a great time at our "Thomas" weekend!

We went up to stay at the Marwell Hotel, next to Marwell Zoo. The hotel turned out to be excellent value with decent facilities and a good breakfast so I can recommend highly. Website link is: www.marwellhotel.co.uk

On our first day we went round Marwell zoo which is great for kids and especially enjoyed the mini railway ride around the zoo. Christopher enjoyed it too!!

The next day we set off for Ropley Station and with hundreds of other parents with excited kids arrived for the start of a fun day.

It's a real steam railway and Christopher was thrilled even though it p1ssed down a lot of the time!

We went for a ride on Thomas then moseyed around the sheds where he sat on James.

I do have some pix and I hope sometime soon to get one on the site! He also loved the races between Thomas and Diesel. It was amazing to see so many children having a lovely time - surprising was how many little girls are fans of Thomas too!

It's quite sweet to see all these families having a lovely day out - the railway crew are excellent too as they really join in with the run and appear to enjoy their roles. The Fat Controller was especially lifelike! So if you want a good day out with the kids I highly recommend.

Christopher has been telling everyone how he saw "big Thomas". He was thrilled and we were thrilled that he was! Ahhhh!!

We'd definitely go ahead and go again, maybe next year. Our next outing with him is to Portugal early September.

Tomorrow afternoon is photoshoot time for the new book. It looks like I may well be taking all my clothes off for this one so I expect plenty of airbrushing before the finished product! Oh well, you have to go for it, don't you? I'll let you know how it went on Friday.

The markets continue to be stressful more on that shortly...

Markets

 The jolly see-saw continues! I remain with plenty of cash on the side for buying back shares if they sink any lower. And I have radically reduced my spreadbet accounts for the time being. Safety first for the moment.

I know a lot of you out there will be stressed - me too! But remember bad times in the market come in short spurts and the good times in long ones! Things always clear up in time, so try not to be too down if you are.

Remember there are other things in life! The other day as I was trying to get a good price for a sale my son said "Come and sit next to me and play daddy."

I immediately closed down the level 2 screen and played with him. That's way more important than losing a few quid on a sale.

If this is any comfort here is a press release I just got:

While fund managers have turned more risk averse in light of global market instability they still believe equities offer value, especially relative to bonds, according to Merrill Lynch's Survey of Fund Managers for August. In the broadest snapshot of global institutional investor sentiment since the sharp rises in credit spreads and equity market volatility, a net 11% still regard equities as undervalued. In contrast a net 41% think bonds are overvalued.

Investors, polled at the height of recent volatility, have increased their cash levels one percentage point to 4.4% of their portfolio. They have trimmed their expectations of corporate profits and expect global growth to slow. But what is striking this month is how few investors (7%) think a recession is likely in the next 12 months. The survey suggests that investors have not rushed to reassess the prospects for equities.

"Investors seem to be viewing this turmoil as a potential buying opportunity for equities," said David Bowers, independent consultant to Merrill Lynch. "They appear unwilling to turn fundamentally bearish on equities so long as they believe the rest of the world can decouple from a vulnerable U.S. economy"

Right here's what I've been up to over the last few days. Basically I'm not sure yet whether the start of a bear market is nigh or not. 6000 is probably crucial. It could swing either way and for now I'm doing the best I can to protect capital and try and make some money on the downside as well as the up.

So first off yesterday I added another Ftse short for a tenner yesterday at 6164. Could have shorted a lot higher but I missed better prices! A good insurance for the moment - however if things bounce this afternoon I will probably take quick profits so it may not be a long-termer like the previous FTSE short that made me nearly £4,000 profit. It would be silly to hold it through a big bounce.

I also shorted Paragon again yesterday for a tenner at 414.

You might say "Robbie you're crazy" for buying a couple of things but in the past I have found it worthwhile to add while all around is selling.

So two "brave" buys! One is RM Group (RM.) and bought 2,000 shares at 173.73p (10th). Target 220 stop 160. A fine company unfairly oversold - I think it could hold steady now and go up in a bounce.

Second brave buy is Game (GMG) for 2,500 shares at 175.75p - target 210 stop 160. Again seems to be unfairly oversold. Wish me luck for my bravery.

I have sold some things which looked a bit weak for now:
shb at 544.23p (15th) - loss £174
bhy at 231.1 (14th) - Loss £214
Ror (closing short) at 1071 (14th) profit £280
dgo at 209.12 (15th) loss £78 but keeping other position!

A few close calls on possible sells. Vislink looks so amazingly cheap but on the verge of having to sell - you can't fight this market. And a lot of other things look cheap too - but if the FTSE starts sinking below 6000 I would have to consider closing most longs for now.

There are some bright spots: the shorts are all going very well especially Informa. Recent short Provident is also well in profit.

For the longs best performer is BH Macro which just keeps going up, quite amazing. Also still going well too is Corin. Fenner, Sondex, Wellstream and Renold amongst others are also holding their own for now which is a good sign.

I wish all of you luck who are still in the markets and just remember - sentiment can change quickly and this might seem like a short nightmare in a few weeks time (well let us hope so).

A lot of the downturn is due to forced selling so bargains will be appearing. Some of the spread firms have raised margins which hasn't helped the smaller caps forcing out sellers too.  

  Dale's computer is still down so I am doing these updates so you may have to wait a bit for tables etc to be updated! Good luck to all in these choppy markets. 

Friday 10th August

There'll be no update on Monday due to Thomas Tank Engine! Next update will be Wednesday.

We're all ready for our long Thomas The Tank Engine weekend.

We will be departing for a lovely-looking hotel which has a zoo as well and then we'll spend most of Sunday with Thomas (and friends).

I expect to have a great day - let's hope Christopher enjoys it cos it's HIS weekend after the adult one we had last weekend.

We also hope to meet up with Thomas' driver who is also a website reader and I'll report back on Monday with how it all went! The weather should be good and, well who knows what to expect!

Good news: He didn't escape from his cot the last two nights... but I think we are living on borrowed time...

You have to be so careful with a fast moving toddler. I was having a run in the park this morning and a toddler raced out of the playground in front of me went straight to the river and started climbing the barrier - without thinking I just grabbed him.

The embarrassed mum came running out of the playground - someone had left the gate open. I knew she was embarrassed so I handed him over and just ran on. It reminded me to be really careful with Christopher who is a very fast runner.

We live next door to Fulham FC and not been to a game yet! They're offering neighbours £15 a ticket for the Middlesbrough game next weekend so me and Mrs NT are going to go!

The last time I went to a game was when my father took me way back when to QPR when I think.. the infamous Stan Bowles and George Best were playing. I can't remember much except I was a bit scared at all the noise when a goal was scored.

So expect a full match report and how we got on. We can go home and have coffee there at half time! font>