Current Spread Betting Commentary

Friday 2nd May

Markets

  Obviously with the May bank holiday no update on Monday but I will be back on Wednesday!

Well I said last time I was a reluctant buyer at the moment but also I didn't want to take profits. I still feel the same way because I really can't decide whether we are right at the top of the market for now or whether things are really improving.

So until that becomes clearer I'll stick to the strategy. It's difficult because there are massive profits on paper sitting there ready to be taken and it would be nice to take them at the top. However, I've never thought it necessary to get it spot on and I never do but it doesn't stop me from making good money.

So I'll carry on following the market rather than trying to second guess it. A surprising and very big rise today, glad I wasn't in a short!

However despite my worries I made one or two small trades.

Dana (DNX). Wow. Serious profits now and you may think I was crazy to buy again in the low 1600s after already being in in the low 1000s. Well I topped up with a final few (200 shares) at 1722.5! Talked about this one a lot so not going to blab on any more! Target 1950 stop 1600.

Remember those lovely BG profits? I couldn't resist getting in again for a new trade when it fell heavily. I grabbed a new lot - 300 shares at 1232.75. Target 1350 stop 1190. Not expecting such a big rise on it as I managed last time bit I thought definitely worth stepping in on the dip.

Finally I paused long and hard before pressing the buy button here. Which probably means I should not have pressed it. I very rarely buy into a share that stuffed me previously. It's because feelings of revenge aren't a good reason to make a trade!

However I bought 10,000 Vislink (VLK) at 34.2p today after some very decent volume came into it yesterday and the day before. Maybe there's something brewing. Could be I made a hideous mistake. I'm only human. It looks really cheap now. Let's see! Target 42 stop 29.

I got completely caught out by the rise in Next and instead of taking the good profits which had built up I ended up taking a loss of £275 bailing out at 1215. Well, I had a good run with some shorts and can't win em all!

Elsewhere I go into the BH weekend with absolutely massive profits on paper in these shares! Telecom Plus, Hunting, Petrofac, Aveva, Dragon Oil, Hardy, Dana, Mouchel, New Brit, Lamprell...

Profits probably well over the £70k mark at a guess. And.. it is extremely tempting to sell the whole lot, bank the lovely profits, leave the profits in the ISA and put the spreadbetting profits in a high interest account and have the whole of the summer off coming back in September.

And I am debating doing this! I really don't know. Something to think about - it would be lovely to have a summer off. Enjoy the toddler.

The one or two shares in a loss are only tiny ones. So I am very pleased.

Optos has surprised me to the upside quicker than I thought. I was in it for a possible bid but some excellent news coming out of the company today. Especially liked today's release about its key product being used in a diabetes research study. If its technology is really as good as it looks this could be a massive winner. Anyway It's knocking 170 after buying it just a few days ago for 140.

Star of the day award to my biggest holding by a long way - Telecom Plus! A massive burst up and through 300 today and heading for 320. Marvellous - especially as I have option to buy around 13,000 shares at 120!

Aveva remains sparking! Another big leap today! Dragon shows massive profits - a new CEO announced which gave the shares a lift. I don't tend to look at it much nowm just going to ride the brilliant uptrend. It gets hit by shorting raids sometimes but I just hold firm and expect to hold for some time.

Massive gains for Petrofac and Hunting over the last couple of days. What great shares these have been.

Pendragon is now starting to motor (gettit?). Lamprell's going for it too! Emerald is in fine form as well.

Wolfson starts to climb again. Heritage is a tad disappointing but I'll give it time. PV Crystallox is breaking out of its previous highs which looks very promising.

So what can I say? A delighted Burns, however I've got to think about some profit taking at some point. And if this near the top of the market I would love to get the FTSE shorting boots on again.

Wednesday 30th April

Markets

  The good times continue! What a remarkable year it's been so far for me. I just hope this can carry on.

First to trades!

I'm feeling cautious! For the short term I'm only buying if something really stands out as being cheap or a good time to enter. We've had a good run and I just can't see where the short-term big upside is coming from. Still the indexes seem pretty resilient for now.

However... neither do I really want to yet take some of the giant profits in the portfolio as in time, a lot of them I think have further to run.

I've taken profits way too early a number of times and never seem to learn!

I sold Highway after what seemed a pretty disappointing statement. I tend to find the best policy is to get out of companies producing any question marks right away. Which is what I did after the statement.

I got out at 67.84 for an overall profit of £77. However there was also a big dividend of 4p too which I get on May 9th, so profits a bit better than that in real life.

However if the shares go down with its big dividend of 9% it could be a nice buy again in the weeks leading up to the next payout.

Elsewhere another excellent week...

Very glad I had the courage to buy again into Dana even after the massive rise - great results today and brilliant profits now. Here's hoping for more! It's up another 40 points today making me very happy!

A couple of very large buy trades have gone into Telecom Plus today, got to be at least another 100p to be had there by year end. If I wasn't up to my neck already in these I'd be buying more..

Emerald's been doing really well - a seller has been cleared out at the 320 and 330 now needs clearing for a run up to 350. I'm holding mine tight and now very happy with those buys in the 250s and 270s.

Great profits too in Hardy - one I tend to ignore the daily fluctuations on thin volume and just ride the long-tern big uptrend.

Dmatek remains nicely higher - happy for it to consolidate here ahead of what I hope will be a nice run up to the 160s.

Wood joined the FTSE100 and bizarrely barrelled straight down. Didn't last long and it's coming back fast.

My hopeful bid story Optos remains nice and strong.

Hunting I'm still nearly 200 pts higher, it is so volatile! Holding there fast.

Aveva has been such a brilliant buy - doesn't look like it'll be long before I'm 300 pts up on it and it's staying strong on down days - a very good sign. It's trying to hold over 1200 at the moment. What a good un!

Corin is racing higher today, I am trying ignore day to day moves as I hope to wake up one day to a bid! Wolfson's a tad below where I bought and remains risky but for a small amount an interesting gamble.

Lamprell continues to be a star - up around 100 points on that now and it's racing higher today. I don't mention Mouchel much but massive profits there on this long-term hold. Won't be tempted to take those large profits until 500 unless the market tanks.

So all in all very nice still and nothing giving me a sleepless night. Finger's very close to the sell FTSE 100 button, can I press it at the right time though? Would love to be short at 6200 rather than 6100 if poss.

Monday 28th April

Markets

  The good times continue! What a remarkable year it's been so far for me. I just hope this can carry on.

First to trades!

I bought some Wolfson (WLF) on Friday picking up 3,000 shares at 142.49p. Target 220 stop 114.

I've not been in this tech share for quite some time. Made lots of money on it a couple of years back riding it up from about 100p to 500p!

It's come back to earth recently with plenty of competition and less demand in its chip market. However there are quite a few stories in the press which mention its potential as a bid target at these low levels. I like the volume that's been coming in so I'm simply following that and hoping one morning I wake up to some bid news. Who knows? Let's see...

You may think I'm crazy but despite already having Dana (DNX) at prices like 1074 and 1300 you might think I ought to be taking profits at 1600 plus after the find. But I actually bought more instead! A fiver for 1635. Love the strength building in this one and I thought it was worth the risk of it coming back to earth. Again let's see. If it starts tumbling I can always take those enormous profits! I think there could be another couple of quid here. Target 1850 stop 1580.

I closed the Intertek spreadbet at 978 for a small loss of £120. The entry point wasn't quite right - love the long-term look of this one and I expect to get back in quite quickly - it just can't quite get through that 1000 level for the moment. I only just about came out as I think by year end it'll be around 1300. However for now I may as well keep an eye open for a better entry. Perhaps around 950/960.

I'm extremely pleased with my recent entry point into Optos. It's up in the 150s now and with some reasonable volume coming in it could easily lift up to the 200 area. I feel personally that a bid here looks on the cards. Probably when I least expect it.

Hunting has stormed over the 900 mark today giving me a handy 200 points profit. Been a lovely share - I remember riding it up from 160p though to 500p. Took the profits way too early. It was just too tempting.

Dragon is trying hard to push over a sticky 520 area. If it can I expect a few fireworks! Same comment to Emerald if it can get over 320p.

Heritage has been moving better and needs to conquer the 300p area. Recent recovery play buy Pendragon starts to climb nicely.

Hardy Oil pushes back over 800p and looks strong again. A hard one to enter which is why I'm happy just sitting with some very profitable positions on it.

Nothing much disappointing at the moment - perhaps Corin slightly but it will be volatile and a few perhaps locking in gains.

Telecom Plus seems a bit reluctant to push over 300 but I reckon most private investors have taken their profits now and it won't take much to see it up and over that area. With the company going so well I'm starting to wonder whether in the long run it would be better if NPower didn't take up its option right away in 2009.

Pv Crystalox looks exciting now as it hits 160. I'm very hopeful of getting 200 on this.

It's very tempting to short the FTSE again at this point - up to now I've been shorting when it heads up into the 6000s.

However it has been a strong uplift and I'd hate to fight a rising market. So I'm waiting and seeing - I think if it got back to 6,200 I shall be very sorely tempted to stick a big short in.

Talking of shorts I stick with Next and Rightmove - both still look a bit weak. Ferrexpo, Aveva are among other shares doing very well indeed.

Friday 25th April

Markets

 I've had an absolute terrific week. I remember at the seminar last week I showed one of my spreadbet accounts with £114,000 profits in it - a week later it's got £145,000 in it! Something's going right!

However, as an investor, you must be aware that markets tend to kick you in the bum just when you're doing well. So although happy the last thing I should be doing is becoming smug and complacent. So it makes me even more watchful. After all I don't want the profits to disappear.

The thing is though my experience tells me however tempting it is to bank profits, if you're in really good companies and the right sector, it's nearly always still too early to sell. For example I banked huge profits in Wellstream but those shares have gone even higher and big profits would now be ginormous!

Anyhow what have I been up to? Since you asked so nicely, I'll tell you!

Not much actually! With most of the shares in the portfolio soaring it's a nice easy time!

However I picked up a small amount of Pendragon (PDG) as a recovery play. Not a bad statement today - this car dealer has been beaten up badly but signs of recovery are there and there's been some stakebuilding - so there's a squeak of a bid too at some point.

Anyway it's a little bit of a gamble for 10,000 shares at 38.25p. Target 45 stop 32.

Talking gambles I sold my Fortune Oil gamble. I really wasn't sure whether to sell or not - statement seemed fine - I kind of let the market tell me and I sold in bits and pieces. The main thing for me was whether it could rise above 10p and for now it didn't seem able. I sold mainly at 8.8 and 9.2 so for site purposes an average of 9 seems fair. It's at 9p to sell today so I could easily be getting out too early.

That's a total profit of £2,852 which is perfecly acceptable for what was a gamble! I actually might be interested in getting in again but I'd like to see a strong 10p established probably.

I also took profits in the FTSE short - 6,006 to close for £150 banked. I closed as it started to race up yesterday. Bit disappointed as it was as low as something like 5,900 I think at some point. Oh well. However I really can't see much more strength coming and I''m on the verge of shorting it again. It's rising today but I think a short in the 6,100-6,200 area could pay dividends.

I took a small profit in AB Foods short. Main reason is, well it's not going down!! So I exited at 880 for a show stopping £30 profit! I forgot it owns Primark which is actually doing well.
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This week as I said has seen some big rises. Dragon Oil especially going well - the current strength is looking very bullish. An 850 close by year end looks a possibility. Site profits here up and over £20,000.

Other oils going well too. Emerald is trying to climb over 320. Hoping for 350 here. Hardy is battling back to try and head over 800 again.

Dana of course has been the big star of the week for me rising sharply on the oil find to net me several thousand - consolidating the gains today.

The palm oils have been a dream with both MP Evans and New Brit having a great week.

PV Crystallox performs extremely well. Dmatek has been flying and hanging on to nearly all the gains so far.

Recent buy Optos is gradually rising - I am hoping one day to wake up and see a bid on the table. Well, I can dream about it anyway!

Corin remains volatile but worth hanging on in there. Rightmove short was going very well till today! Well, still going well but not so well as yesterday! Maybe should have taken part profits. Telecom Plus remains a superb buy - it'll probably take a while to get through 300p but there may be fireworks when it does.

Anyway a lovely week and here's hoping for more of the same next week. You never know!

Monday 21st April

Markets

 Well, I've had some good days in the past but today is exceptional. Some very big risers in the portfolio today, more on that in a mo.

First to trades.

I bought shares in a company that doesn't fit my normal investment criteria. And it looks overrated! So it's a risky buy. However there is only one reason I'm buying - it's in the medical equipment sector and some of the smaller companies were taken out recently. So I'm buying simply because I think sometime this year it'll get taken over. I could be completely wrong and if so it's not worth the current price!

The company is Optos (OPTS) and I bought 3,000 shares yesterday lunchtime at 140. This was one on the seminar shortlist.

It's in the eyecare business and operates in the States as well as here. It has a deal with Wall Mart in the US and has eyecare technology - specialising in equipment which scans for other diseases. Like the bid I got a few weeks ago for MTL Instruments it's just the type of company that gets bought up. As I said, on bare figures alone I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole. So you could call this a speculative trade! Target 230 stop 120. I'd get out pretty fast if it began to drop and buy more if I saw some volume. One other thing that could push up the price is it gets approval from the Japanese authorities.

I got bored waiting for any further bid news on N Cipher so I sold yesterday at 162 and 163 to take a nice profit of £1,165 - nice profit in just a few days. I might kick myself if the bid comes in over 200 though which is quite possible.

Well, what a great day for the portfolio! Huge gold star award for Dana which has rocketed more than 200 points today on an oil find and so rewarding my patience with it at last! I bought the last lot at just over a tenner so up more than 550 points on that buy - very gratifying.

I was very tempted to just bank the profits. However the find could propel the shares up even further and unlike BG where I banked the gains on news I've decided to hold for the moment. Chances now I could be on a doubler.

Talking of doublers my holding in New Brit Palm Oil has now more than doubled since I bought not long ago and the other positions see major profits too.

In fact huge gains for the palm oil stocks especially New Brit which has leapt up. Also good gains for RE and Anglo and MP Evans. All this pushes profits much higher.

Chime too is rocketing today. It's bought back a lot of shares and one broker has slapped a 48p target on it. I can't figure out why it's not up at the 40p level. On top of that a good statement and a consolidation coming up. What's not to like? Nice gains today. More to come and I'm glad I made a stop loss exception for this.

Ferrexpo has been doing the business for me with decent rises. Good old Telecom Plus has steamed up in recent sessions - a break though what'll be the tricky 300 area could open up 325 in no time.

Hardy Oil's having a good session now the profit takers have gone. Tricky one as it's illquid for a FTSE250 stock. Dragon released a perfectly good statement today - either profit taking or market maker manipulation going onfor now - but would expect it to climb fast over the next few weeks. I was expecting a big drop today by mm's trying to take pi's out like they did last time, so that's even better news!

PVC Crystallox is climbing fast still. Wood Group is going like the clappers.

Dmatek is creeping up today - this one's on my hoped for bid list! Intertek goes well too.

Aveva continues to be a lovely stock. And probably my biggest profit maker Telecom Plus is hitting 300p! Doubtless it will pause for a bit here as pi's I'm sure have targets at 300. However I feel targets are more a signal to re-look at a stock. If I didn't have so much TEP, would I buy more today? The answer is yes.

Corin continues to be volatile but I do think this one is likely to be snapped up sooner or later.

Even better is there's a huge rise in my stocks and yet the FTSE is falling which is also good for the FTSE short and also other shorts Next, AB Foods and Rightmove are falling too adding to profits!

Great days like this certainly makes me feel very happy to be an investor and make up for some of the not so good days!

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Monday 21st April

Markets

  Well I enjoyed the seminar even more than normal. I showed everyone one of my spreadbet accounts at the start of the day. By the end of the day it had risen by nearly £10,000! So I knew I was having a good day on Friday even though I didn't know why! More on the big risers in a minute!

As usual at the seminar delegates voted for me for a share to buy out of a list and they plumped for me to buy Intertek (ITRK) - I decided on this occasion to do it as a spreadbet and I bought it live for a fiver at 1002. It probably wasn't the best time to buy at the end of a strong upday - but it looks an excellent share! Target 1090 stop 925. There'a a lovely long-term uptrend and it reckons its businesses should thrive in a recession.

One of the shares on the shortlist was Corin (CRG) and when I looked at it in the afternoon it had gone up 40p! The story here is that though it doesn't fit inside my normal investment criteria it has excellent hip replacement technology which I think will be bought out this year.

However I did buy CRG this morning despite the rise on Friday and bought 1,000 shares at 485 and another 1,000 at 485.75p. Target 595 stop 410. A bit risky buying after a rise but the volume is so good perhaps some good news is on the way! It's doing its best to get through 500 today.

I also bought Styles and Wood (STY) about a week ago at 77p - I'd kept it quiet as I wanted to present it on the shortlist.. Anyway an MBO attempt was announced last week and it's up a fair way at 112p. I'm not going to claim any credit for this on the site as I didn't publish but it's put me in a small company bid finding frenzy! With Corin being one on my shortlist I bought another 2 possible bid candidates.

First on the list is Wood (WG.) which I bought Thursday - one of the few oil services companies I don't current own getting 1,000 shares at 444.36p. Target 520 stop 390. I'd be really surprised this year if at least 2 out of Wood, Hunting, Petrofac, Wellstream weren't bought out. So I want to own the full house! That's my reason - plain and simple!

Finally on the bid potential buying list is Dmatek (DTK) which I bought today, 4,000 shares at 126.7p. This one has tagging technology and I reckon someone somewhere is going to want to snap up this company at what looks like a cheap price. It's in a similar situation to N Cipher in that it has a good product but isn't going anywhere quickly enough but another company could use its assets better. Target 170 stop 100.

We shall see - I expect to hold all these tightly unless there's a general market meltdown.

I topped up with some more Dragon Oil (DGO) - this time another spreadbet for a tenner at 465 on Wednesday. Looks well timed as DGO is pushing 500 today. I can see 500 is causing some private investors to sell but actually I think this selling looks premature and the best is yet to come. Target 850 stop 420.

Finally I tried another FTSE short this time a fiver at 6036 last week. Looks like it might be a bit premature as the FTSE is higher than that today - but we'll see - I shan't give it much leeway as the FTSE looks quite strong - probably wouldn't let it get away from me much more than 6,120 or something like that.

Thursday I sold Eaga at 161.26 for a loss of £300. It released a statement out of the blue which was actually ok, just a bit of negativity in there. However these days I tend to quit pretty quick if question marks appear so I did. Irritatingly I wasn't quite quick enough of the mark and if I'd moved faster I could have still come out with a profit! It gapped down fast 15p as I was trying to exit. When you own shares sometimes these things happen. I just get out now as quick as poss. It looks cheap now but when I've lost money in something I usually ignore it from then on for a while otherwise there are feelings of revenge - not good.

Oh, that godawful Quintain trade. Definitely going in the next book if there is one - anyway got out at 415.19 today for a loss of £505. Badly timed, badly traded, broke my own rules and I'm an idiot. Can't say fairer than that. (Watch it rocket back up now!)

Wow, well what a sensational few days it's been! One of the spreadbet accounts I showed at the seminar is now up £16,000 since Wednesday!

Ferrexpo has suddenly become a big star with a huge rise for me. New Brit Palm Oil has soared up and away.

Aveva too is becoming a firm favourite, now nearly at 1100!!

Ms International (MSI) has seen some good director buys and share buybacks - the company obviously thinks shares are undervalued - as do I.

PV Crystallox has broken out very nicely indeed and at last in good profit now. Telecom Plus continues to be a real star and yet again is going up - plenty more left in the locker.

Emerald seems to have broken decisively through 300p - 320 now looks a tough barrier with sellers around that area - but 350 opens up if it can. Very nice profits now. Dana too is now showing some excellent profits though I do wonder about taking those soon. 1400 could prove crucial.

The Rightmove short has come up a bit but it's still in a good profit and I'm going to sit with it given I still think it looks overvalued. I missed getting out of the Next short for a very good profit but it's starting to go down again!

NCipher remains nicely higher - of course I run the risk it isn't bid for but for now I'll stay in there. Goodwin's been boring to say the least but some progress today.

Lamprell's becoming a bit of a superstar as well as Petrofac and Hunting, both in excellent runs.

I'm absolutely delighted with recent progress for the portfolio. I made one or two silly mistakes but this will always happen. But generally it's powering up and I'm delighted.

Friday 18th April

Markets

  We seem to be hanging around the same area on a volatile basis.. who knows what's going to happen next! As you know I'm no forecaster but I can't really seee any big gains around the corner and I think it could pay to remain very cautious while the credit crunch is still biting.

British Gas shares leapt yesterday on news of a gas find. It was all too much for me and with such a good run I had to take profits. So hopefully not too prematurely I'm out at 1311 for a profit of £1,573 and 1309 to close the site's open spread for £3,230 profit. This was an occasion where buying it on a bad day really paid off!

I gave up with Costain selling today at 23.5 for breakeven. I still think it's a buy but it's obviously still not the right time - however it's a matter of waiting and watching for a better time.

It looks like a 5,800- 6,000ish level is beling established on the FTSE. I decided to close out the short at 5903 yesterday as the FTSE kept on rising for a profit of £485. Bit too late really and slightly annoyed as I could have got a much better price than that earlier in the day and I gave it too much leeway. But then again trading the FTSE isn't my skill, and so generally I am grateful for any profits however made. My plan is to try and re-short it again in the 6,000 area although if it busts through the 6,000 steeply I'd wait a bit. It's a suck it and see for me. I can't imagine there is a lot of upside over 6,000?

And that's one of the reasons I'm extremely wary about buying anything at the moment and if anything more tempted to look for shorts.

Aveva said today its results were going to be ahead of expectations and the shares have climbed up to the 1150 area leaving me 250 pts up from the original buy - got quite a few of these and I think there's a good chance of another 200pts or more here. For what it's worth Goldman Sachs have a target of over 1500. And another broker rates them at 1330. They should run up some more nicely ahead of the May results.

PV Crysallox has been quietly rising - a break of the 140 could see good things

A bit of a treeshake yesterday in Telecom Plus. I would have bought more but as I own well over £100,000 of the shares I think it's time I stopped! I'm going to get a massive dividend cheque shortly for over £2,000! They're rising again today - with massive cash in the bank and good prospects especially during a recession, they have to be a core hold for me.

Dana at last is surging away - that last buy at 1074 looks good now with the price pushing 1350!

Lamprell and Ferrexpo are both proving real stars at the moment, comfortably ahead on both. Still well ahead on the Hardy buys but it's come back a bit. It's thinly traded for a top stock so when it comes back it's likely to be just as quick. Wsp has become very disappointing although it has paid out a dividend. My extremely poor Quintain trade is about to me put out of its misery - there seems to be support at 425 so it's just being held.

So all in all still great profits in most positions with the losers only small which is the way I like it!

Monday 14th April

Markets

  The market is going to be volatile this week as it's earning season in the USA. Loads of company results out this week and each one will no doubt push things up one moment and down the next.

Great for day traders but not so good for investors and naked traders..

What's my view? Well. I just don't know like many of you! I'm just really sitting and watching for now with a reasonable balance of longs and shorts. All I can say is it could go down a lot or up a lot depending on the earnings. Keep your fingers crossed!

I'm currently sitting on a lot of shares with huge profits on paper like Telecom Plus, Dragon Oil and Mouchel. Shares showing losses are still pretty minimal. So for right now I can afford to sit there. The worst thing to do is "force" a trade just for something to do. I try not to do it though it's quite difficult!

Petrofac's been gaining hand over fist and hasn't given too much back today.

Those NCipher buys are looking pretty tasty now - the shares sit in the 170s but I think if there is more than one bidder a bid in the 200-230 area looks possible so I'll stick with it for now.

Aveva's been volatile and can move fast but it's in a nice long-term uptrend and my buys in the early 900s look good with it getting up to 1100. The Quintain buy continues to look very poorly timed and it's only just being held.

Lamprell is now proving a big winner! Took a lot of courage to hold it during the big moves down.

Good move by Chime - they're going to change their share structure 1 share for 5 which will mean their shares will trade around 150 instead of around 30p. The company's doing this to improve liquidty and to put a stop to the silly market maker shenanigans going on in the stock.

Emerald continues to not be sure of whether it wants to kick through 300 or not. Hardy Oil I hope is seeing the last of the profit takers and I held despite tempation to take some profits myself.

The Rightmove short is really paying off now with a 70pt profit - but I think there's a bit more to come off and I still feel it's only worth 350. The FTSE short goes well too, up around 160pts (though that could change in the blink of an eye).

The Next short goes extremely well now - and it looks like it could fall below 1100 and then into single figures. Still can't see much but gloom for the retailers.

So, tricky times, but by the end of the week we should have a bit more of a clue as to whether the markets can rise up above 6,000 again or whether it's doom and gloom and falls for a bit longer.

Monday 08th April

Markets

  A nice couple of days with the portfolio growing strongly.

However with the FTSE hovering back at 6,000 I wonder if there is much more upside left? Which is why I haven't bought anything today. But I haven't sold anything either.

Of course it's always tempting to buy something for the sake of doing something but that's a losing game. I do have my eye on a couple of interesting shares but they've both risen a lot today and I'm hoping to get in at better prices.

So I'm kind of waiting and seeing... I am very tempted indeed to think about shorting the FTSE 100 and perhaps looking at other shorts too and perhaps taking some profits off the table. After all the credit crunch hasn't exactly gone away.

But I am no forecaster and prefer to wait and see what happens following the trends rather than anticpating them.

Onto the portfolio and things are going extremely well! Star of the day is probably New Brit Palm Oil up more 6%, though I think a lot of that is down to a tip in the Mail on Sunday.

Telecom Plus continues to be a blinding share, up pretty much daily and my biggest holding. It really looks nailed on for 300 and beyond.

Ferrexpo surges today - this I think is because one of the papers highlighted its takeover attractions. Avena continues to look good more than 200 points up on my original buy - a broker note out today reckons it could rise by nearly another 40%.

Emerald Energy is trying hard to crack the 300p mark. Hardy Oil has been a real cracker and I think has a great chance of getting up to the 1000p mark. Super share.

At last!! My short in Rightmove is paying off! Goodness me I've hung on in there as I can't see why on earth it is rated so highly and at last it appears to be coming down fast. This could be the start of the big move down I've been looking for. It surely must be being affected by the slow property market?

The NCC short is now yielding a profit of more than £1,500. I nearly took profits on Friday as a director bought but there appeared also to be some bigger selling going on still. So I just about decided to let it run.

Heritage Oil continues to go well - any breaking of 300p will be very bullish. It is quite risky given the politics involved but worth the risk for me I feel.

The last 17 buys are all in profit now (some very good profit) except for Chime where I remain flummoxed! Well, at least it isn't going down! I still suspect there will be a big rise, probably the day after pi's in it decide to give up on it!

I think this could be a very interesting week indeed!.

Wednesday 02nd April

Markets

  Interesting times. A big part of me is tempted to bank a lot of profit (fear) and another big part of me hopes there is more to come (greed). At the moment the greed is outgunning the fear!

Right, remember I was blatering on about a certain stock being allowed in an ISA or not? I was talking about new issue Heritage Oil (HOIL). It's a new London listing, transferring from its listing in Canada. Looks interesting as it came back quite a bit in Canada recently so there may be some value here.

Lucky for me I also have an ISA with Selftrade so I ended up getting some in an ISA with them and not Barclays yet! I got 1,500 shares at 274p. Target 400 stop 233. Which isn't as many shares as I wanted.

This one looks like a lovely long-term tuckaway for a decent rise - with its current market cap it should be in line for entry to the FTSE 250 this year - tracker funds would have to buy in which will really help.

Even better judging by the lethargic trading so far in this one it hasn't been "noticed". This is always a good sign! I suspect it'll stay around where it is for a while. Shame the spread is a little wide but that will close up when more market makers come on board which should be quite soon. Anyway it's tucked away! If Barclays end up allowing it in my ISA with them I'll buy some more.

As I mentioned in the last update my little gamble in Fortune Oil (FTO) is going well - I decided this time to chance my arm and pick up a little extra and managed to get 30,000 shares on DMA at 8.16p. Target 9.5 stop 6.

I bought the last lot at just over 6p so the profit is very good - it's a bit risky buying some more at the higher price but I put this one down as a gamble more than an investment. It's one of those shares with potential for a big percentage rise.

Fantastic news from Hardy Oil which I have only just topped up on! Late in the afternoon yesterday it announced a second gas discovery in its deepwater exploration block in India which sent the price soaring late in the day and today as well. Results are next Thursday.

I'm beginning to think this could be one of those wonder stocks. It's due entry in the FTSE 250 next time round as well. Those of you who get the e-mail know I bought a lot for my SIPP in the low mid 500s so at this rate I'll have doubled my money in a short time.

Another recent buy going well is Emerald Energy which has shot up today - if it can break through 300p I can see it getting to 350 quite sharpish given the way it can move quickly.

The Smith and Nephew buy has already reached the target and though tempted to take profits I'm going to try and ride it a bit more. The Palmers are down a bit today as the PO price is down. Given I'm well in profit I'll hold my nerve!

Lamprell's been a rocky ride and as usual I try and hold my nerve as I think longer term it looks great.

Telecom Plus remains in excellent form - it's testing 250p. The company has loads of money for more buybacks and it won't take much to see it trading back at around the 300p mark which is where it should be. Excellent profits here.

The oil price has come back a bit so Dragon and Dana are a bit lower but I don't feel worried about either long-term. Both stocks are day traded so I tend to ignore intra-day volatility.

Morgan has come back very nicely and nearly in profit now!

Aveva has proved a wonderful stock but is terribly volatile. Not that it matters as it is very much on the uptrend.

I feel a bit lost with Ferrexpo! But well in profit anyway! XP Power appears to be on the move up again.

So all in all tremendously pleased with progress this year given the state of the markets... interesting to see the FTSE rising so strongly.

I guess I'm hoping for a move back up to 6,000 at which point I shall probably get my FTSE shorting boots on again for what I think could be a ride back down to 5,700 (sorry!).

Monday 31st March

Markets

  Well, there seems to be at least some temporary "stability". Ps, Gordon just by getting everyone to say "stability" all the time isn't going to win you the election..

In fact things are so good with the portfolio that I don't want to sell anything! So I haven't! I haven't found much interesting to buy either but..there is a share I am in the process of buying today - but more on that on Wednesday as I haven't quite finished my buying of it yet. It's a tricky one - will explain all in the next update.

So, it's been a really excellent day for a lot of my holds with some good statements too.

Star of the day award goes to one I haven't mentioned for a while - my wee gamble in Fortune Oil.

Bought at just over 6p a while back it's up 10% today with the buy price hitting 8.5p so I'm up around 30%. Not quite time to break open the champers yet as it's got to the 8p area before. Still, here's hoping for more! It's one of those shares that could just suddenly go straight up - and the brilliant thing for me is it's ISAable.

Telecom Plus released a very strong trading statement and they are shooting up on the back of that - no less than about £16.5m profits to be declared, oodles of cash and a juicy dividend. This now looks way undervalued and it should be up at the 300p level already. Also a safe haven if the markets fall heavily.

I'm obviously very pleased as it's easily my biggest holding both in my isas and elsewhere. Even nicer is thanks to a lot of mobiles, energy and other packages I sold for them a few years ago as a distributor I am sitting looking at an options certificate entitling me to buy 13,414 shares at 120p!

In other words all I have to do is send them a cheque for £16,000 to get a share certificate back worth £34,000! Now that can't be bad! The option expires in June so I guess that cheque is going to get written very soon!

Excellent statement from Mouchel which gives it a launching pad for a move up to 500p. Holding quite a few of these and sitting on a £10,000 plus profit.

Others going well today include Costain, up nicely from my buy price recently. Dana is also recovering very well indeed.

Emerald Energy is now in profit after looking a bit ropey at one stage. The break through 270 today looks quite bullish.

Recent top up Hardy Oil looks good over 750 and I am hoping it cruises up to 800.

WSH Group looks strong today over 600p. Seminar buy Goodwin shoots back up well. BG Group is now well into profit. Dragon Oil is back up to the 450 mark. Should get back up to 500p soonish.

Aveva continues to be a cracking buy, up nearly 200 points since the first buy.

Even better the shorts are down well. AB has dropped a few points and even stubborn old Rightmove is at last going down. The NCC short is now in good profit - time to take profits on that could be looming.

And remember Horizon? The one on the last seminar shortlist I made 140% on in just two days! It's up again and it looks like the 90p bid is going to go through. 31p to 90p in short order. If only that could happen every day.

The portfolio looks very good indeed after today which considering market conditions have been bad, I am very pleased indeed.

Friday 28th March

Markets

  Hey, has some "stability" returned (C. G.Brown Esq).. well it looks like it short-term and after quite a burst of activity from me recently it's been a quiet couple of days which really have been welcome.

However I have shorted AB Foods (ABF) for a tenner at 883p. (That's trying to make money from it going down). Target 820 stop 920. There really looks next to no upside here and some reasonable downside as it's not in a great sector and appears to be struggling.

And I did a little top up in Hardy Oil (HDY) which is in a decent profit. Looks like lots of buyers and not many sellers around - anyway I got a further 500 shares today at 749.72p. Target 850 stop 650.

Elsewhere a pretty good couple of days with some good rising shares.

Aveva is a bit of an unsung hero - it's climbed nicely over 1100p giving me nearly 200 points profit on the original couple of buys. Looks strong for further rises. It's being upgraded I think..

Dragon Oil has risen strongly off good support in the 420 area. Looks like the sellers are out of the way and it remains a core long-term hold and profits heading back to the 20k area.

Telecom Plus looks good though it may take a while to crack the 250. Ferrexpo has risen well but can it get through that tricky looking 350 area?

The Rightmove short isn't working out at the moment, but I will give it a bit more time, amazed by its strength. The Johnstone Press short works very well again and up £500 quite quickly.

Highway Insurance is creeping slowly back up. Petrofac and Hunting are both having a good day. And Lamprell continues to rise after the excellent results.

Chime is carrying on buying back its own shares with its cash, should rise back over 30p given time.

On the disappointing list is XP, very surprised it's fallen back though part of that is due to a dividend payment (it pays out over 8%). I would expect a good bounce from 220 so sticking with it and tempted to add a few here. Smith and Nephew goes well but I might be wise to take profits if it can't get over 680.

So, a pretty good week but of course we're probably not out of the woods yet... and I think caution is still required for the moment!

Finally if you fancy getting my e-mail sub service (see below) it's available for one free year if you simply switch your gas/elec to Utilities Discount Warehouse where I of course get commission. It's easy to do and you're guaranteed cheaper than the big 6 suppliers inc British Gas. Mail me for details!

Wednesday 26th March

Markets

  It feels like an age since the last update, and actually it has been a while. The market continues to see saw crazily leaving me and I'm sure many of you a bit dazed and confused..! Still not seen anything like this in ten years and we can only hope (unless you're a day trader) that things settle down soon.

I wish I could say I'd been a real market whizz and lapped up all the bank shares last week and I'm now sitting on massive profits but..er.. well.. I didn't. Way too busy eating chocolate.

Anyway I just don't want to get caught up in all these bank ups and downs.

OK buys first..

I topped up (yes I know again) in Telecom Plus (TEP) as the tree shook hard and got 2,000 more at 224.59 - Tried to get some at 218.25p on DMA but didn't get them! Now my biggest holding with massive profits and nicely doubled from the 104p buy. Target 350 stop 150.

This just adds to the long-term holding in TEP where I am in profit by many thousands. I'd be surprised if these weren't around 400p in a year or so, so a great hold now. It has tons of cash. I truly expect to come away with profits of more than £25k.

Highway Insurance's (HWY) dip to 60p looked a gift but stupidly I missed it (was in the middle of some toast) but took 5,000 new shares anyway at 62.66p. Lovely company with a massive dividend. Took decent profits on some recently. Target 81 stop 55. Medium term hold.

I've re-shorted Johnstone Press (JPR)..(trying to make money on it going down) this time for £50 at 132. You may remember I made more than £1,500 on this last week - its low was 110ish and I'm in for what I think is another likely fall to that area. Target 110 stop 140. I can't see any reason for it to rise - bad sector and plenty of debt.

Dana (DNX) saw a sudden fall out of nowhere so I took advantage and topped up with 250 shares at 1074.8p. Target 1300 stop 1050. Please note I have ignored all my own stop loss rules and am a complete hypocrite. If I get a kicking on this it serves me right. Can't say fairer than that now can I?

I bought back into FTSE 100 stock Smith and Nephew (SN.) at 621 ( a tenner on the spreads) - Had a decent run with this last time - I missed the 600 that was offer though but still, I'm looking for a run up back into the late 600s and look on it as a pretty short-term trade unless it kept going up through the 700s. Target 690 stop 600. I just noticed it's been climbing fast. I wonder whether this could make a short-term range trade stock for me.

Onto profits and losses taken.

Vislink's going into the next book alongside my Coffee Republic cock up as one of my stupidest trades and that'll be examined in depth! Going into why a bad loss was made is important to market success. The thing is however experienced you are, at some point you'll hit a crap trade, and I reminded myself of some important lessons that I wrote myself! Shows you it doesn't matter how long you've been in the game, it's easy to screw trades up. Anyway I took the losses on the other position at 27.75 for loss of £1,624. I realise it's probably more fun as a reader to see me take losses as it makes you feel better for yours!.. yes I know! Hope the loss is theraputic for you!

Spreadbet firms are all tightening up the credit they give to clients and in particular they seem to be wary of dealing in anything outside the FTSE100 for now as they are worried about liquidity. Which is a sign to me to continue to be wary of smallcaps for the moment. Some have raised margins to 95% and some are pulling out of dealing in the smaller equities for the moment.

A spreadfirm that I had some Dragon with phoned me up last week and said the margin was increasing to silly levels and they wanted £20k! (Even though Dragon is very liquid) Like many other PI's I said no! So my position with them was cut at 468. I wouldn't have sold otherwise. Little did I know they'd actually done me a short term favour as the price has dipped a bit since. Anyhow the upshot is some of my Dragon was forcibly closed and for website purposes I close the mid 400s position for a profit of £390. I have other spreadbets on it with another firm - but I reckon part of the reason for Dragon's drop was forcible closing like mine. I keep all the other positions open and forcible closes aside it remains a long-termer. Long-term I'm a bit disappointed I got closed out - but actually it was for a small amount compared with the total holding.

So, if you are wondering why even your good strong smallcaps have been marked down, most of the problem I think is down to forced closure by some of the spreadbet firms.

Bh Macro has been a superb buy but I've had such a good run with it I sold at 1475 for profits of £250 on pos 2 and a lovely profit of £2,303 on the original position for a total BH Macro profit of £2,553.

I already regret the sale because I fell in love with it! It stood me in good stead during all the downturn! I kind of now hope it goes down so I can maybe get back on on a dip or two. But in these market conditions it's too good a profit not to bank.

As Angus Deayton might say... all of which profits and losses taken ends up as a profit of £1,319.

Elsewhere some decent risers! Most recent buy Costain has done very nicely and I'm up more than 10% already. I'm looking for another 10% here but considering a longer-term hold as well.

Lamprell produced an excellent statement today and I'm now nicely in profit - I'm going to hold as I think it's worth more. The shares are rocketing as I write with profits now hitting £1,000.

Wow! Petrofac has stormed away! I'm hoping this is going to be my second bid of the year. Nice profit building here.

WSH Group is doing ok but can it break the 600 mark? Hardy Oil has been an excellent performer and I'm now up more than 100 points. It kept strong when other stocks were breaking down - a very good sign. Very decent profits coming here now.

The NCC shorts are now paying off with profits of more than £1,000. Coming close to my target levels now so keeping an eye on some profit taking soon.

Goodwin's been a bit disappointing, back to my buy price, still I hold and keep the faith! Morgan remains on a yellow card as it hovers around the stop.

Ferrexpo has really boomed today and now in a decent profit - what a rollercoaster this one is! I think if I take good profits here though it will have been more luck than skill.

Palm Oil prices are back on the rise so New Brit has hit 500p again - looks like a few sellers around that price but if it breaks through a return to 600 is on the cards...

I am less flummoxed about the Chime drop - I think forced closure by spread firms is part of the reason. I still think value will out here and my positions will end up in profit!

Aveva has been going great guns for me and up more than 150 points on the first buy with the topups going well too.

What can I say? It's been a crazy few weeks. I've still managed to make profits but it's been hard going. What's going to happen next? If anyone's got a time machine, please e-mail me urgently.

But wouldn't it be nice if things could just settle down a bit now to give us medium term investors more time to eat our toast and drink our tea. Is it too much to ask?

Monday 17th March

Markets

  It's one of those days when I'm sure your language as well as mine makes us all feel like Gordon Ramsay. It's been an effing horrible day. Effing Bear Sterns! Effing USA! Effing Dow Jones..!

It's very hard to know what to do however long you've been in the market. It's hard to sell because there could be a big bounce. It's hard to buy because shares could fall further. And it's hard to hold in case even the top notch long-termers get hit.

There is one answer I suppose: Hide behind the sofa with plentiful tea and toast until it all goes away? Look, I'm only throwing up suggestions...

There aren't any easy answers. We can only do our best to make some decisions which is what I've had to do.

The worst thing is whys.. given I was making so much money shorting the FTSE why didn't I short it at 5,750 like I said I was going to? Why didn't I sell one or two things when they topped out? Why didn't I do more shorting? Where's the bloody remote control gone again? I'm sure some of you are similarly questioning yourselves. Stop it. No-one is going to get it right all the time, certainly not me.

For the moment I'm brazening it out (is brazening a word? If not it should be - at least over 100 points on a triple word score in scrabble). I'm holding onto the strongest stuff and considering dumping the weak. (yeah right I know should have done that on Friday).

Anyway talking of brazening I haven't done that much.

I took profits on Robert Walters at 165.25p to bank a profit of £1,233. It had a great run, hit the target and more, looks a great time to bank it. Couldn't have asked for any more from this trade. Plan executed to a T.

Serves me right for losses on Ferrexpo. I got into a mining stock I didn't really understand. I sold 1,000 last week (why didn't I sell them all?) at 331.08 for a loss of £60. I'm sitting on the other 1,000 shares that I didn't sell wondering whether to take the other (bigger) loss. Level 2 looks strong though so I'll give it a little time. Mining stocks are so volatile. No wonder I usually leave them alone.

Elsewhere some stocks are actually holding up reasonably well. BH Macro remains a big star - as usual up on a down day, what more could you want and 500 points higher since I bought not so long ago. Emerald reported - seems in line and with the potential there I hold.

Thank goodness for the shorts! Up more than 100 points on Next now.. the Johnstone Press short is the best where I'm in profit by more than £1,300. The Helphire short also shows profits of more than £500 and the Kesa short is already 15 points in profit. The NCC short now over £600 profit.

And even Rightmove has moved into profit (for now though it is amazingly strong) Mind you, you could have shorted just about anything so it didn't take me to be much of a genius! Next and Kesa report on Wednesday so I have to decide whether to take the decent profits before results day or not. Tricky one.

Those holding up brilliantly are Telecom Plus, Eaga, Dragon Oil, Mouchel and to a certain extent, the palm oils.

Hovering around stop losses and close to being sold are Morgan, Dana, Vislink, and PV Crystalox. They're all on yellow cards which could turn into red. I decided by the way to hold onto the lovely 140% gainer Horizon as I think the big will go through and I may get more profit.

Are the tough times going to get tougher? Possibly. It's not an easy market. Which is why it's handy being able to short. At least you can get a bit of insurance.

But let's end with a ray of sunshine. Dividends are really high. That's a good sign that the market could be priced wrong. And at some point things will change - and there are tremendous bargains out there - so you know what I think - the latter stages of this year could be brilliant for private investors.

There - feel better now? What do you mean eff off? Charming!

Friday 14th March

Markets

  Hurrah! First bid of the year! Sadly it was only a share to small stakes that I put in my SIPP the other day and of course those that get the e-mail had details of that buy.

Nice to get a 140% rise in one day. I bought at 31p and it's now 76p to buy! The share by the way was Horizon - it was my one "gamble" on the shortlist that I considered.

Moving onto the main portfolio..

After the silly overtrading I did earlier in the week, a calmer end! And a quieter time! Which is rather nice and I've been simply sitting with what I have. (A rather nice leather chair).

The FTSE is soaring this morning but I expect to try and short it again, hopefully somewhere up in the late 5000s.

However I made one more short to bolster up the growing short portfolio and that's £25 a point in Kesa Electricals (KESA) at 202. Target 150 stop 220. It reports on Wednesday and I can't imagine anything other than a gloomy statement. I don't think people are buying much electrical equipment at the moment.

The Next short is going well! I thought if it went down through 1200 it would fall sharply. And it's down today in an up market which is a good sign. It reports next Wednesday too!!

I'm very pleased with the Johnston Press short - already up a nice 15 points and it seems in a terminal decline. That debt means further falls to come I think.

The NCC short is starting to pay off though it's been a bit slow coming down. However it has a history of suddenly moving down 30p just like that in the past and that's what I'm hoping for to take a nice profit. And the Helphire short is now into profit. One short that is in a loss is Rightmove. Just can't work out why it's not going down.

Hurrah! Chime at last is climbing. Sometimes the market is frustrating but when you know a share is cheap it's usually worth riding it longer-term. Investors Chronicle had a buy piece on it today.

Hunting has proved remarkable and is bounding up again today. Wish I'd bought a lot more when it was 700! And to think I orginally bought at 170p! I thought I was being clever taking profits when I had a lot of them at 650p. Way too soon, never mind.

WSH Group is absolutely flying now! Very pleased with that.

My buy of BG in the late 900s looks very sound now, around 200 points higher. Vislink has become disappointing again and I'm just holding on.

One of the biggest stars is becoming Robert Walters, bought recently at 130 and now pushing 175. I'm starting to get tempted to take profits, but it still looks so cheap! Telecom Plus where profits are now very large is holding onto recent gains. A push through 250 could see it higher soon.

BH Macro has been on the rise again and looks strong - can it bust through the 1500 area? Ferrexpo looks good today but continues to be scary! Eaga is on a roll again and glad I held firm. Aveva has stormed up nicely again. Mouchel consolidates some very good recent gains.

Hardy Oil looks likely to bust through that 700p level and XP Power consolidates very nicely after those big director buys.

So again feeling very positive about trading this year with some superb and very large profits in many of the positions. Conditions remain volatile but I remain calm as ever, making decisions without using any emotion, it's the only way! I'm not sure I buy the current good rises today and the markets still look a touch on the rocky side.

Wednesday 12th March

Markets

  Well, unusually for me I've been extremely busy making new trades, and taking profits and losses! I feel like a day trader. I think to be honest I've probably overdone it. Maybe it's because I was away for two days!

So I reckon I probably sold some stuff too early and maybe made too many trades in general. That's always a problem - doesn't usually happen with me and now I shall stop moaning about it and just tell you what I did.

Buys/shorts first then sells.

I topped up with more speculative Emerald Energy (EEN) , a further 2,000 shares at 270p. I talked about this one in my last update which you can find in the archive saving me a few keystrokes here!

I also topped up with a few more WSP Group (WSH) with another 1,000 shares at 592.4 - and same comment re the archive on this one!

Chime (CHW) has flummoxed me and I am not usually flummoxed. Some crazy ups and downs and huge % swings with it being almost impossible to deal in them quickly at quoted prices. Results were brilliant and the shares seem worth at least 40p. If I were WPP I would be bidding right now! No idea about these wild swings except the market makers seem to be in control here and it impossible to deal.

But I did get some more.. 10,000 shares at 27.7p a few minutes ago. Target 40p stop 21p. I think over time the shares will rise to their proper value and I'll ignore short-term swings unless there is anything untoward. So they will be tucked away for a while now.

Onto some new shorts.

I couldn't resist shorting more Rightmove (RMV) and a higher price than the last short!! This time for a tenner at 498p. Still looks at least 70p too high and I can't understand the valuation except for the buybacks holding it up.

And I've shorted Johnston Press (JPR) for £40 at 158p. So far this one is working out well as it is down around another 10p and still falling. I think this company looks troubled and weighed down with big debt. Target 100p stop 180p.

I also shorted Next (NXT) for a fiver at 1230. I can't see Next having a good year and I've made decent profits shorting this recently from 1600ish. There's good support at 1200 but if that gives there could be a pound or two in it. However, I would come out quick if it rises as it can go up sharply on occasions. Target 1050 stop 1280.

Now to sells. I sold NCipher at 163p to take a loss of £405. Despite its promise the share price is just not delivering so I thought it was best to quit.

I took profits in Elementis selling at 67p for a profit of £420. Bit disappointed I didn't take profits much higher as it has been recently and also wonder whether I am taking profits at the wrong time anyway. Still I pushed the button and that's that!

I've had a nice rise with Genus and it's generally struggled to move much higher than the mid 700s so I sold at 731 for a profit of £485.

Total profit for the site today: £500. As I said I probably overdid the trades. So shame on me! I'm only human so give us a break!

Elsewhere some excellent rises for many shares. Goodwin continues to shine - up to 1155p since I bought it live at 1082! Thanks delegates! I

Aveva sees a blinding rise today and glad I topped up last week. A pre close statement is due which I hope will push the shares up further.

And Robert Walters looks a great buy now at 130- now up to 165p! Mouchel Parkman is an interesting riser - been holding on tightly to these and I wonder whether there is something good on the way given the great buying volumes.

Hunting continues to shine and I remain 150 points up on the latest buy. What a share it's been with many thousands profits taken. Of course in retrospect I should never have sold!

The brilliant BH Macro heads higher again and I'm up nearly 400 points on the first buy. Lovely!

The Helphire and NCC shorts haven't gone my way yet.. give them time!!

Ferrexpo is a wild ride which is why I don't usually buy mining stocks! Still mainly in profit right now! Still up 20k or more in Dragon but still not tempted to take profits. Nice rise today and any break through 514 would look very bullish.

Shares of course rising right now thanks to the liquidity pumped in by the US authorities. I'm not sure the rises can be sustained but I know I will almost certainly be shorting the FTSE again at anything around 6,000. In the meantime I continue to look for shorts in weak companies. A good mix of longs and shorts for now should help to ensure some kind of stability (thanks Gordon) in volatile times.

Monday 10th March

  The Budget is coming! Brown got out just as everything turned bad! So many ill thought out tax changes recently. Of course we all forgot the 10% band has suddenly disappeared (a reminder: this is a Labour Govt!)

The change to capital gains tax was very badly conceived - many will be selling their AIM shares in March unless things change. Labour have been pretty lucky the world economy hasn't been bad till now. Watch them struggle in new conditions.

Markets

 Well, it's been a tricky time for me as with the father in law troubles I've been offline for a lot of the time though managed to get online at the hotel...

I made a very speculative buy in Boot H (BHY) which is in the unfashionable property consultancy sector. I just noticed a couple of interesting larger buys going in so I followed with a small trade of 2,500 shares at 153p. Target 180p stop 140p. This might just pay off as the share looks to have formed a very strong bottom here so downside looks limited with some decent upside if there is any sign of good news. There also seems to be more buying coming in today.

And another speculative buy ( well I guess buying anything right now could be deemed speculative!) into oil explorer Emerald Energy (EEN). I bought 1,200 shares at 257.72p today. Always shown promise but never quite delivered yet like Dragon or Burren but it's one of those shares that can rise sharply. Not sure if this is the right entry time so will exit quick if it starts falling. Stop 230 target 350.

I've got a quite hefty shortlist of weak companies that look shorting candidates. I've picked the candidates for reasons of either poor sector or high debt or profit warning.

And a company that manages all three is Helphire (HHR) and I shorted for £30 at 184 this morning. Target 120 stop 220.

Yes, it has high debt and has issued a warning. These tend to come in threes so hoping to hold for 3 months for a 60 point profit.

Rightmove (RMV) continues to looks way overrated. Can't understand it except the company is buying back shares. I'll take a chance and shorted for a tenner at 489p. Target 420p stop 520p.

Onto sales..

I sold recent buy Arena on results day at 52.01 for a profit of £63. Reason I came out was not because the results were bad - indeed the shares have stayed high - but I thought the volume before results meant something really good was on the way. Didn't really happen so I quit.

Petrofac reported a decent set of results. However I decided (wrongly it seems already!) with decent profits in the bag to sell half my holding at 543.12 to take a profit of, well either £1,051 or £531 depending on which position I close for the site.... er... ok I'll go for the lower profit of £531 by closing the 490p one then! I'll hold the other one at least medium term. Maybe even buy back in if it dips a bit more. Of course it has actually gone up since my sell and now I wish I hadn't sold!! That's the market for you!!

I also exited Smith and Nephew spread at 646 for a profit of £130. Disappointed there - should have sold much higher. Looking to get back in lower. (I now expect this to rise!!)

Total profits for the site today: £724.

So what's happening to the portfolio? Hmm.. still doing fine though I probably should have taken more profits here and there. A time machine would be handy.

Star performer continues to be Dragon Oil trying to get a firm footing into the 500p area. Ginormous profits here now which are up and over the £20,000 mark for the website! I know many would take profits but with my giant balls of steel (!) I carry on holding.

Time and time again I found the worst things to do was sell the good winners too early and I am so glad I held onto things like Burren all the way from 240 to 1230! So I'm going to resist the urge to bank the 20 grand for now.

Also huge profits in Telecom Plus but again not selling!

Excellent statement from Goodwin last week - surprised the shares aren't up even higher but they tend to move slowly and stately and up a nice 50p today! Looks like the initial target could be hit quicker than I expected.

Ferrexpo remains a roller coaster and I remain up (well for now).

My timing of the entry price into Chime was appalling! If I'd waited a bit could have got a way better price. Results will be interesting tomorrow. The price seems very much in the hands of a couple of market makers which makes it a tough one to enter and exit.

Genus is storming higher for me. Amazingly nearly all the portfolio is in profit. Only real losers at the moment (taking all positions together) are Morgan, Dana and Crystallox. All 3 I rate but I have to be careful and not let losing positions run away - so they are all on a yellow card. The palm oils have given a bit back - but I don't feel worried about it and indeed will add on any new weakness.

I'm tempted to short the FTSE as it might be starting a new 5,500 to 5,750 range. But I'm not sure yet. I will probably short if the Dow looks weak this pm.

So all in all still very pleased with this excellent year so far. March though looks like it's going to be a tricky month!.

Monday 03rd March

Markets

  And I bought 500 Goodwin shares at 1082.4 just before the market closed!

Goodwin looks a lovely strong company which gradually over the years just goes up. My timeline for this one would be a hold for at least a year for decent growth prospects. It's in a business that continues to grow strongly and it looks very cheap.

There's no real interest from private investors but plenty from institutions. Probably because pi's don't like buying shares priced over a tenner. Never bothers me! My target is 1450. Stop 900. I expect Goodwin to continue to go up in value - never going to be a huge riser in a day or anything but I hope it will be a lovely performer this year.

This morning I bought another shortlisted share on results, WSP Group (WSH) snapping up 750 shares at 556.21p - wish I'd bought a few days ago before results though!

A lovely set of results - this company has plenty of green credentials and specialises in green environmental consultancy. Its green aspirations makes it likely to be in a sector that might become "hot". It has low debt and a great furture. Target 650 stop 495. The share is rising nicely as I write.

Sometimes general market falls means some shares fall that don't deserve to and you can pick up some bargains. I never thought I'd be able to top up on Telecom Plus (TEP) again much below 250 so two days of private investor panic selling means I could nip in for a few more this morning. I bought a further 1,500 shares today at 228.5p. Target 350 stop 200.

And I also topped up with more XP Power (Xpp) with a buy of 2,000 at 275 on Thursday.

Directors of XP Power have made some mammoth buys which is why the share has gone up so much since I bought - 223p to 280p in a few days makes me very happy! Target 350 stop 220.

Well, I missed two chances to sell the FTSE 100 above 6,000 but I snapped up the third chance on Wednesday shorting for a fiver 6043. Wish it had been for more! I hope to take profits soon at about 5,700ish..! Or higher if it shows signs of a big rise! I'm getting to really love FTSE shorts!

Sadly I sold Keir quite quick at 1416.30 for a small loss of £146 on Thursday. Just bad timing here. As usual inside volatile markets I get out fast when I think I got it wrong. The spread went too at 1423 for loss of £255. Poor timing got it wrong, got out, been there, done that. Try to do better.

Elsewhere the portfolio has held up remarkably well given 3 days of big falls. One or two have even gone up!

The palm oilies remain nicely detached and keep sliding higher. Good statement from New Brit saw it stay steady despite fairly obvious profit taking from private investors who like me who's bought in the late 200s. However all this selling was mopped up by buyers - a good sign. Can see it up another 300p.

MP Evans saw some excellent gains over the last few days. It's due a pause for breath. But I wonder whether it could become a bid target.

Eaga remains a good market - 200p is going to be a stiff challenge though.

Recent buy RE has gone brilliantly as it tries to get up and over 700p - Anglo Eastern is now in good profit too.

Lamprell is starting to go very well indeed.

And what can I say about Hunting? Up more than 100p now on bid prospects in the oil services and gas sector - Petrofac also motoring too.

I did mention a number of times I thought this year would be the year of lots of gas and oil services bids and I would not be surprised to see Hunting and Petrofac being bought and possibly Hardy Oil and Dragon Oil too.

So, in general very happy with how great it's all going even in a down market with the FTSE short adding a bit of icing to the cake. Yes, exactly, sounds a bit smug and serves me right if I get a kicking!! I remain vigilant but feel I'm in the right sectors and avoiding the bad sectors.

Wednesday 27th February

Markets

  It really has been a terrific week and a terrific year! Profits have surged into the portfolio over the last couple of days with any number of big risers.

Some trades!!

It's great having Direct Market Access sometimes. It means I can try and buy at "sell" prices and this came into its own yesterday when the price of REA Holdings (RE.) was 615 to sell and 635 to buy - quite a large spread! So I put in an order for 500 shares at 616p... and... it worked! Someone sold me 450 shares at 616p so didn't quite get them all. Still 616p is a way better price than 635!

In case none of that makes any sense at all to sum up I bought a further 450 shares at 616p!

Of course that was a top up in this company - I think this palm oiler has a way to go to catch up with New Brit Palm Oil and MP Evans and I think it's going to be rerated up to the 800p level which is where it should be and it's ISAable too! I reckon RE has simply been overlooked and it won't be for much longer.

OK, an admission. I have sinned against my own rules and averaged down. So don't e-mail me to tell me off. I'm only human and I admit it. I bought more Ferrexpo (FXPO) yesterday, 1,000 further shares at 311p.

I sinned because it looked like a massive treeshake and I couldn't resist trying to get some shares at the bottom. Which I think I did. Anyway sin committed, admission made, move on..

Loved the look of the Kier results (KIE) and even though the shares were already up 57p I fearlessly (or recklessly depending on your point of view) picked up 300 shares at 1464.89p and a fiver on the spreads at 1474.

They look way undervalued even after this morning's rise and I think worth at least 200p more. Target 1650 stop 1380. Actually I can see they are up and over 1500p now.

I shorted NCC for £20 a point at 388p (Jun spread). It came up when I was doing a scan for shares that hadn't gone up in the recent rally. Doesn't seem to be many buyers about so I reckon it could fall back a bit in the next market downturn. We'll see! Target 340 stop 405.

I sold Ricardo at 322.8 after results today for a total profit of £249. The results were actually pretty good - it's a good solid company with growing earnings, everything I like. But..... for right now everything's in the price and I can't see enough upside to make it worth holding and I could use the cash better elsewhere.

Elsewhere my excellent run continues and it's been a cracking week so far on top of a cracking year. Profits are zapping in!

Star award this time goes to the buy of a few days ago, XP Power which has motored up to 260p - as I bought at 217p I'm pretty pleased! I continue to hold as I think my initial target of 280p will easily be reached but I think if it goes above 300p, there could even me more profit to come.

The rise is mainly due to a huge buy of 10,000 shares by one of the directors on top of other recent director buying - a very good sign there is much more to come with XPP!

Elementis produced some nice-looking results which see the shares up now more than 20% since my buy at 61p. Vaguely tempted to take profits but The Times reckoned they should be avoided so on the basis journalists have no idea what they're talking about I've stayed put!

Genus too produced results that were top end and nice profits there too building. Hardy Oil has been rising fast and once over 700p I think I'll get another 100p.

Huge rise for Oilexco over the last couple of days - as I said when I bought it's the kind of share that can simply rocket - which is what appears to be happening! Robert Walters has proved a good one and that's rising well too.

What can I say about New Brit Palm Oil! I've now nearly doubled my money on the shares bought just before Xmas at 293p! And the spreadbet is now up nearly £3,000. They've been rising fast this week along with my other palm oil stocks as palm oil prices continue to rocket.

Eaga continues to climb and tries to push over 200p. Lovely buy that was.

BG, Aveva, Telecom Plus et all are simply performing brilliantly.

Finally Vislink is really going for it and I'm nearly 20% up already. But there should be more to come.

So what can I say - I'm a very happy bunny indeed. It's a question for me now as when should the profits be taken?

As Shakespeare said: "Ah, there's the rub." Not quite sure why I wrote that except 1- it might make me seem cultured and 2 - it seemed to sum up what I was trying to say. No? Oh ok then.

Monday 25th February

  Not sure what to make of the Government "Speaker's" expenses furore. I mean why pick on him? Haven't all of them at one point or another overclaimed?

And let's face it, any of you who've been in a job. Bet you've sneaked in the odd taxi expenses claim when you were using the taxi to go shopping? Eh?

Anyway most of them have their snouts in the trough which is why you won't hear any MP's condemning the Speaker.

The problem is that "expenses" in any company are considered a bit of a perk. The other problem is all these so called " grace and favour" government apartments. Ie, free housing!

Shouldn't all these properties be sold off and government officials be made to live like the rest of us have to? Why do they get free housing?

In the end it's all about greed isn't it? Humans tend to be greedy and most of us probably are - politicians perhaps maybe seem to be slightly greedier than the rest of us.

I have to laugh when I hear Gordon Brown reckoning Northern Rock will be back in private hands after a couple of years. Make that 5 and that's nearer the truth.

How sad that many schools and nurseries are now banning staff from touching children altogether? Paranoia over legal action means some nursery staff believe they can now only change nappies in a public area!

We recently visited a school where the headmaster who obviously cares for the kids in his control shakes hands with them every morning and while we visited put his arms round a boy. Should this be banned? Dear oh dear...

Well done to the grandfather who won £1m on the horses for a 50p accumulator! How lovely especially as he never realised till he went back to the shop!

Monday night? 10.35pm? My favourite time of the week. Toddler tucked up, Mrs NT usually has an early night and I'm tucked up on the armchair with the headphones on watching Curb Your Enthusiasm on More 4. Bliss!

Markets

Friday 22nd February

  I managed to miss shorting the FTSE at over 6,000 yet again as I was out for quite a while. Well, maybe it's fate and it's going to push up to 6,200. If it does there's going to be a massive short going on from me!

This year continues to be marvellous for me though probably the quietest week so far. Of course caution can't be too far away in credit crunch markets but I remain holding most of my stocks through pure greed in that I want to run them for further profits. Only time will tell whether this is a good strategy or whether I'm a total plonker not to take profits now.
Also, I bought some Hardy Oil for my SIPP a few weeks ago in the mid 500s and since then I'm up nicely.

The shares this week have transferred to the main market from AIM, one thing I really like! So for the first time I've been able to buy some Hardy (HDY) for my ISA and got 650 shares at 618.75p this morning.

This looks like a nice oil company with big prospects - if the share price can get up to the 750 level it could make it into the FTSE 250 which would see funds buying in the share price lifting further.

The downside with Hardy is for now a small number of market makers are in control and it can be alarmingly volatile as the MM's try and sometimes shake people out with sudden drops. But a medium term hold for me with a loose stop. It's also got to be a bid target this year I reckon. Stop 520 target 890.

I took profits in my Peter Hambro short-term trade at 1369 for a profit of £920.

Which for a short-term trade is just fine! Now, as they say, watch it go higher! But the fact is it isn't my normal kinda share and given its volatility it seemed a sensible move. Goodness, I'm just SUCH a sensible guy!

Elsewhere quite a quiet day. I'm ignoring the fall in Dragon today on the basis that it's a treeshake followed by pi's having their stops taken out. I have tons of Dragon and so don't add anymore on shakes - however I just ignore it on the basis that I'm certain it's going to go a lot higher this year. If I didn't have so many I'd probably have snapped some up this morning in the low 400s.

Oilexco's done really well since I bought a few days ago, and though volatile the trend is very much up and I'm hopeful of at least getting to 900p. It was up 3% in Canada last night.

Recent buy Eaga's doing very well too today. Star recent performer though has to be Hunting which has leapt higher in the last couple of sessions. Something going on there possibly. Come on, still awaiting my first bid of the year and getting impatient!

Recent buy Vislink holds well after recent gains - a bit of a kick could get it over 50p and back trading into the mid 50s.

Telecom Plus holds onto its recent big gains and looks like getting ready for a push up to 300p. Management I think still has authority to buy back shares which would also help. And there's the lovely big dividend too. Results due on Robert Walters next week - I just about hold with some nervousness!

Alumasc continues to push up a little bit every day and I'm hopeful of a push above 200p. Morgan Sindall proves as volatile as ever but I'm going to try and ignore the massive swings and stick with it. Genus is making a bit of an effort to push upwards. The palm oils are marooned (but better than going down). However they are all right on the verge of breakouts which could be exciting.

So in general things continue to go well and the cash keeps rolling into the accounts..

Monday 18th February

 Ahh, how lovely to have a day with the Dow Jones closed! Should make this afternoon way more relaxing given how closely we follow the Americans...

In fact it's been a laidback day for me - the portfolio heads up nicely today and it continues to be an extremely good year so far. For now I'm in no rush to buy or sell anything.

I feel some people just trade for the sake of it, and quite often the best thing to do is no trade or like me at the moment just watch and wait.

One share I made a lot on a few months ago was Oilexco (OIL) where I got over £2,000 profit from a spreadbet and I'm in again.

And again it's a spreadbet from Friday - this time for £10 a point at 761. This one has moved to the main market from AIM (though Barclays won't let me put it in my Isas from some stupid reason or other) which is why I tend to spreadbet it.

This one looks to have found some oil (which if you're an oil company is quite handy) and its prospects seem excellent. It is on the risky side but worth the risk even though it's gone up a lot in the last week. Stop is 710 target 950. The risk reward ratio looks good and when it motors, it really motors! If it can nip over 800p it could go another 100p at least - it also trades in Canada too.

No big star movers today but everything goes well enough.. The Palm Oilies have all been sneaking higher - Anglo Eastern, RE, MP Evans and New Brit are all on interestin breakout levels. Fascinating to see if they can bust through their respective barriers.

Smith and Nephew has been a lovely buy and looks good today - can it head up and over 700p?

Petrofac is on a real roll - 544p seems the magic breakout figure. Hunting has been going very well indeed with bid rumours around... come on give me my first bid of the year!!

The Peter Hamro trade is back in profit (just). Elementis continues to make nice progress. British Gas is much higher today.

Recent speculative recruitment buys Harvey Nash and Robert Walters are both a little higher and the buying prices could end up looking good if the timing is right....

Genus trades reasonably well but needs a little kick from someone to get it back up and over 700p. Let me try.... BOOT!!! Nope, didn't work.

And what to say about the brilliant rises recently in Telecom Plus, my biggest holding? If it can hold around this 250p level, a few more share buybacks could see it head up and over 300p again.

Lamprell is beginning to raise some national press comment - and very hopeful here of a good bounce.

And Eaga is at last rising very well and is now 13pts higher than my buy a few days ago. 200p is going to be an interesting level.

So again all in all, very happy with the way things are. But with the FTSE heading back up towards the 6,000 level again I am looking to short the FTSE again at around that level.

Friday 15th February

 Interesting to see that one of the biggest "Betting" experts has been declared bankrupt. Can't remember his name now but he was (is?) the BBC's racing expert.

Unfortunately a lot of the pundits, experts out there actually often have serious gambling problems.

I feel really sorry for anyone who loses all they have through gambling. It should be understood like alcohol gambling is a disease - if you feel you have a gambling problem you ought to contact Gamblers Anonymous.

And immediately stop any gambling activity. Spreadbetting is especially addictive. Stop if you feel you have a problem.

Talking gambling I see one guy is sueing William Hill for £2m to get his gambling debts back! How bizarre!

Actually it is not well known but gambling debts are not recognised by law. If you owe a betting firm it's not enforceable by law. Spreadbetting though is... so if you owe a spreadbet firm you could expect a visit from some large gentlemen...

If you ever wanted some proof we are in a slowdown, M & S are giving away thousands of 20% discount vouchers for this weekend. Pretty much shows they still have problems. I did my short in that one now though!

And B and Q are offering 10% this weekend too - and there are "sales" all over the place as well. Looks like retailers are still struggling to sell stuff.

Which is why I can't really understand anyone who's got retailer shares. I just don't think it's the right time to get involved with them just yet...

Markets

Wednesday 11th February

 Here we go again! After a nice quiet day we return to the up a lot/down a lot scenario..

A massive rise of 200 pts followed by giving some back today. I very nearly shorted the FTSE late yesterday afternoon as it was actually obvious there was going to be some at least short-term downside. But I didn't.

A few parcels has arrived for me and my limited attention span went elsewhere. A shame as I'd have made 100 points short profit by right now! Oh well, there is always another day, another FTSE short!

I've gone for a company I wouldn't normally buy on fundamentals - Genus (GNS) as purely a short term momentum play for a small amount. I bought 500 shares at 634 today.

Actually that's unfair - the company is promising and has moved to the main market from AIM, always a good sign. It's in the sperm business and quite honestly I'm about to have lunch and really don't fancy talking about that much further. (It's bull's by the way).

I feel the shares have overshot to the downside and so could rocket back up into the 700s quite easily and quickly. Of course I also wouldn't want to catch a falling knife and they could also continue to rocket down - so a fairly tight stop goes in at around 5% of 595. Target 720.

Elsewhere recent smallcap buy Alumasc rises today, nice against a falling market. NCipher remains stubbornly where it is despite some good buyers..

PV Crystallox is making a bit of a comeback. It can't quite bust through the 140 level. I think when it does it could go much higher. Dragon Oil looks to be taking a breather before the next move up - it will be fascinating to read the next statement due in early March.

Recent buy Eaga doesn't seem that "eaga" to move up though it's doing OK. And it did go ex dividend today. I'm hoping this one will be a nice steady risers on new contract wins. I have to be careful to make sure the short-term trade in Peter H doesn't turn out to become a long-term trade. In the business known as a short-term trade gone wrong!

I'm still sitting on massive profits from the likes of Telecom Plus (still going well), BG, New Brit and Smith and Nephew among others.

Those of you like me waiting for the MTL Instuments bid cash won't have long to wait. A broker told me today the money should be paid within the next week! Whoppee! There is £50k coming my way! In the end I think it was just about worth the wait for the 708.5p than sell up at 680p. After all it is nearly 30p a share extra! What a fab buy that turned out to be at 520p!

So the great start to the year remains well and truly intact - for now! I still hold onto the major profits made over the last few weeks - I suppose in these markets you either need balls of steel to hang onto winners or else be a pillock! I guess we'll find out which one I am shortly!

Monday 11th February

 I saw my idea of hell in the TV listings:

"Celebrity Ding Dong with Alan Carr, Davina Mcall and Les Dennis..." Pleeaaasseeee...

Where the hell is Dragons Den and The Apprentice when you need them? And why aren't they showing the current Celebrity Apprentice being shown in the USA?

Doesn't matter, you can watch episodes at nbc.com - it's got Piers Morgan in it and various other irritants - which makes it very watchable!

Lenny Henry keeps burbling on about there not being enough black comedians etc. Lenny, someone has to break this to you.... you're about as funny as an ignored stop loss! It's nothing to do with colour and I really don't think TV execs are racist about comedy...

The US is trying to push European countries to agree to allow "air marshals" on flights to the US.

My personal feeling is I would feel LESS safe with a marshal on board carrying a gun! What if said marshal was a bit crazy?

And surely the terrorist groups would simply aim to get one of their number trained as a marshal? It's typically nutty thinking from Bush and his team. Instead of making a situation better, he simply will make it worse. For goodness sake, keep guns off aircrafts!

Markets

   A pretty quiet start to the week which quite frankly is rather refreshing. We are so used to expect shares either to be up or down a lot when they don't do much it's a bit surprising! So really having a bit of a rest today.

After all the money made on those FTSE shorts I kind of hope the index will go back up to 6,000 so I can re-short. Otherwise if it breaks down through 5,700 I'd probably go in with one on the basis it could hit 5,500. We shall see how it goes.

I bought into a new one today, one I've been meaning to get into for a while. Wish I had got in on Friday at a better price…but still got in today for 2,500 shares at 173.25p.

The share is Eaga (EAGA) and I was pushed to get in this morning after the announcement it's been selected as preferred supplier for BBC's digital switchover help scheme. This is going to raise its profile a lot. On top of that directors have been buying in like crazy. And it looks well undervalued too. So a nice little buy there I think which should stand up against any market turmoil.

My plan? To hold for 3-6 months for about 20% profit. Target 220 stop 145.

 Elsewhere as pretty reasonable day though for a change not much going on.

Huge profits still sitting there for the taking and I still haven't taken them yet. It could be a case of more fool me but let's see. All the shares I'm in are pretty strong and have held up- well.

Telecom Plus keeps hold of all those superb gains it made last week - and it's still undervalued!! Tons of profit and I doubled now on the buy for the site of a while back. Great dividend too.

Dragon Oil holds up very well in the 430p area. Recent buy Smith and Nephew goes very well indeed today and I am hopeful of a bid.

Short-term trade Peter Hambro is up today on what looks like good news but can't quite break the 1400. Holding tight for now.

Recent buys all hold onto their gains. More decent buying coming into NCipher and I can see that moving up again soon. Same comment to Almusac which is steady today after some excellent rises - looks like a nice buyer of 50,000 there today.

The brilliant Aveva continues to motor nicely for me - I wonder if it can hit the 1100 mark this week.

Bg has been a wonderful buy and I'm up 200 points in just 2 weeks! It shows little sign of stopping. Petrofac shows a decent gain today too. New Brit Palm looks like it's shortly to have a go at trying to crack that 500p area. Come on, you know you want to!

So all in all still extremely happy with the portfolio and the amazing start I've had to this year profitwise.

Friday 8th February

  So we are still trying to go higher but not quite managing it!

I exited my latest FTSE short at 5727 for a nice profit of £1,525. Sadly for me the FTSE has gone lower than that today currently at 5702 so shame I didn't wait till today for a bigger profit but never mind - I never manage to get out near the top or exit near the bottom but it doesn't stop the profits coming in!

- I am beginning to really love FTSE shorts and again when it gets anywhere near 6,000 I'll be shorting again! I don't tend to long the FTSE on the basis that I could be caught out by a huge drop all of a sudden by a bit of bad news while I am lolling about having tea and toast! Profit on FTSE shorts now around £25,000 since August last year.

I closed my Vanco short on the basis that for now 90p seems about fair value and it has good support there - so I closed my short at 94p yesterday (the price was 91p in the market but you have to pay extra spread to the spreadfirm which is how they make their profit) - profit on the short was £1,400 .

It's actually tempting to long of Vanco now as unless they went bust (I think it'll pull through) the bad news seems to be in the price for now. And with the Investors Chronicle calling it a sell this morning that seems even more reason to buy! However I have held off for the moment to be on the safe side.

I sold Sainsburys which hit the stop at 362.7 for a loss of £289. Well, I'd bought for a bid - still think it might happen this year but no sign of it at the moment!

So total profits for the site today are £2,636.

Onto some buys. I quite like the look of Smith and Nephew (SN.) as a takeover target this year so have entered on a spreadbet. I only did a spreadbet as I'm short of cash in my ISAs as awaiting £50,000 or more cash from the MTL Instruments bid! Hopefully they are about to pay up! I like the medical equipment sector and already got a bid a few weeks ago for Mtl - so I think this one has a pretty good chance of getting snapped up.

Anyway did a £10 spreadbet on Smith at 633 yesterday. Target 720 stop 595. It seems to be rising fast as I write so here's hoping!

I continue to pick up the odd small cap that looks to have been oversold. One thing I'm being careful with is debt and making sure the debt is not too high. So as well as recently picking up NCipher and MS Int, today is the turn of Alumasc(ALU)

This looks a very fine tuckaway on an excellent report yesterday (which I'd bought at the cheaper price yesterday but never mind!) and I got 2,000 shares at 180.5. Target 220 stop 170. Lovely little company this and well oversold - a very confident statement yesterday and has lovely rising profits.

There's also an excellent dividend too which I should pick up next month. I feel this one is a very confident tuckaway!

My gold mining trading stock Peter Hambro (POG) seems to have come back to a buying price again - I have to be careful with it as it is very volatile - went in for a tenner at 1377 today with a 1450 target in mind and a 1350 stop loss. A pure short-term trade, win or lose!

Elsewhere I was rather pleased with the way the portfolio held up so brilliantly during the meltdown yesterday and pretty much my biggest holding - Telecom Plus - actually rose nearly 15%!

And not surprisingly. What a cracking statement! The company's going to make a £16m profit, it's got £37m cash, it can buy back shares and it's massively raising the dividend.

I would have bought more but luckily for me going back to the days when I was a very active distributor I have an option to buy something like 15,000 shares at 120p! I shall be taking up that option. I already own 20,000 shares from 82p and 30p options as well as plenty of others in my Isas.

The share price of TEP was up at £4 last time they announced results anywhere near as good as this! Looks undervalued still even after yesterday's rise. Very glad I picked up more in the low 190s just the other day.

Dragon Oil has held up very nicely too - as I think the shares will be 600p plus by year end I am happy to just hold.

Recent smallcap buys MS International and NCipher are going very well indeed! Scott Wilson too holds nicely as does Lamprell.

I see some quite big buyers are coming into NCipher today which bodes well for further rises.

British Gas - oh why did I take profits too early on the spreadbet? Well, never mind at least I kept the shares! And that buy at 969 of a few days ago looks good with the shares now at 1141!

Excellent day for New Brit Palm Oil which is pushing back up to 500p. The question is: can it break though, if it can there could be a spectacular rise. Here's hoping!

Good old Brit Macro continues to ride high!

So in general thrilled with the progress this year - the FTSE shorts have worked really well and given me that extra confidence to keep quite a number of buys open during the market downturn. Also pleased with picking off a few bargains too. Of course times remain tricky and if the Ftse goes below 5700 then 5500 beckons. Well, whatever happens I always find it fascinating - and I'm also always here whatever happens!!

Wednesday 6th February

  Apparently if you live a healthy life you cost the NHS lots more - £210,000 in your lifetime rather than £180,000 for an unhealthy fat smoker. That's because the unhealthy die earlier but the healthy live too long costing more money.

I wonder whether the Government will realise it would actually save them tons of money to promote unhealthiness. I can see it now. Eat lots of pies! Don't exercise! Smoke!! Die young.. you know it makes sense!

I saw three ads in a row promoting unhealthy food like crisps and pies last night with pretending it was healthy using words like "unsaturated" and "low fat" when we all know the foods are bad! Let's face it, anything in a box with pretty packaging is probably bad news…

The use of spy cameras continues to escalate in the country. And so many officials now have the power to spy on you by whatever means..

Coming next: the compulsory National Identity Register holding a wide range of personal information as the beginning of the ID card scheme which as we all know is a complete waste of time and money and will lead to all our information being sold onto criminal gangs.

Congrats to Ireland.. for this year's Eurovision Song Contest they are putting up a turkey.. in fact, Dustin the turkey.. a turkey puppet...

Dustin will sing the entry "Ireland douze points" and who knows maybe even win it! The UK will never get more than 20 points however bad the song because some of the other countries still blame us for the Iraq war...

Markets

  Whooooah.. the roller coaster ride continues and for the moment, 6000 ish looks the top and 5700ish the bottom...

As I signalled I was just about to short as I updated the site on Monday and managed a fiver FTSE short at 6032 (missed getting 6050 by indecision).

It's worked out well so far and I'd be looking to take profits in the 5750 area probably although with these things I just play it by ear. I do think for the moment shorting the FTSE at anywhere around 6,000 looks a good bet.

One company that I've held for a long time is MS International (MSI). What I like about it is its solidness. It's never going to be a worldbeater or rise 50% in a week or anything but it always produces lovely solid reports. It increases its profits and dividend every time. And even better the management seems to have a no b-s approach. It doesn't produce flowery statements which b-s on and on.. because it doesn't need to. In fact this was a classic this morning:

"The company has continued to perform in an encouraging vein as benefits accrue from our extensive investment and development programmes. The balance sheet remains strong with net cash and short-term deposits."

Lovely, short, sweet and no nonsense. It's a share I just buy more of on the dips - I know what I want and that's a nice 30%-40% this year together with the dividends. I shall just leave it there and ignore any short-term shenanigans. It does tend to stay strong anyway during meltdowns. The chairman keeps lifting his holding and lifted his stake to over 24% a few days ago. And there's a chance of a bid too. What more could a medium-term investor like me want? I expect to carry on holding long-term.

Anyway I picked up a further 1,000 MSI shares at 196.3p and another 1,000 at 197.12 this morning. (Could only buy in 1,000 parcels) Target 280 stop 165. My buys went via plusmarkets and are on their site but they're not showing up on advfn for some reason.

I've had a very good run with BG and have been undecided whether to take profits with a report about to come out so I did a halfway house thing - I sold the spreadbet but kept hold of the actual shares. Spreadbet has gone at 1112 to bank a profit of £1,260. If it goes down, at least I banked some profit - if it goes up, well at least I have some shares!

I ditched my short in Shire at 936 because it was holding up and even going up while the main market was going down. Not what you want from a short. Profit banked is £655. Total profit for the site today is £1,915.

Elsewhere Dragon, after hitting 440 couldn't quite manage to hold there and profit-takers banked. You can't really blame them. However I'm just holding firm - I think the shares will be at least 600p by the end of the year so I'm just going to hold now and ignore the short-term traders taking profits etc. I also have quite a lot of shares so I haven't yet bought on weakness though getting sorely tempted.

BH Macro continues to be a fab hold during difficult times, never goes down, usually goes up!

Aveva is also going up whatever the market conditions and was upgraded today by a broker. More than 150 points profit on that one now, and given its strength in weak markets, there is even more to come!

Recent buys NCipher and Scott Wilson held up very well yesterday which was extremely encouraging. Dana too is putting on a good show - nearly 140pts profit there quite quickly. Telecom Plus remains nicely above 200p. And recent buy Lamprell is going a little higher.

The Palm oil stocks all hold up well in market melees which is too encouraging. The Vanco short is showing good profits though it's a pretty short-term one and I would expect to be out reasonably soon.

So to summarise it's still the best start to any year for me... however of course things out there look dubious and I'll continue to eye up shorts as well as hold strong longs.

Monday 4th February

  Labour continues with all its sneaky little tax rises which they hope we don't notice and we probably don't. Each family is now paying £1,000 more tax than they were in 2002 despite so called "tax cuts".

The latest is of course the rise in capital gains tax to 18%.. and the sneakiest one yet has to be the "amalgamation" of PEPS and Isas in April.

Why is this extra tax? Because right now if you hold cash in a PEP and earn interest on it it's not taxed but if you hold cash in an ISA 20% tax is applied to the interest. So PEP holders will shortly have to pay tax on interest!

And don't get me started on the money they waste all the time. Worse culprits of course are local councils. Ken Livingstone, Mayor of London spent £1m on an ad designed to try and stop bad behaviour on the buses. As if that's going to stop any of the yobs!

Markets

  I'm continuing to have an exceptional 2008! I just can't decide whether I'm pushing my luck by continuing to run the big winners and if I am being really silly in not cashing in.

The portfolio has made some giant gains in the last couple of days.

I've tried twice to get a good entry point into Ncipher (NCH) and failed, each time I've got out fast with tiny losses. Just as well as it's gone down 20% since my last entry attempt.

So.. I am trying again at this lower level thinking that this HAS to be a good time to get in! Anyhow this is probably my last stab at it and I bought 3,000 shares at 176.5 on Friday. The technology it has and its markets (such as security at airports) look good. And at this reduced price I'd have thought it would make a decent takeover target. I really looks oversold and I noticed some buying coming in late last week.

Another buy - this time on the spreads as it's an AIM stock, albeit a large one - is Lamprell with £20 a point on the spreads at 365 on Friday. LAM looks set to get a main market listing this year putting it right in the FTSE 250. A hard one to get good entry and exit points but this looks as good as any! Target 450 stop 310.

It's sad to see Vanco (Van) struggling against a weight of debt. I made some quite nice sums out of this one in the past but it has to be a short-term short for the moment with £79m of debt which it forecast on Friday. I'm now short of £40 at an average 129p. Target 80p stop 140p.

Well, I could be taking any number of huge profits from recent buys - but I have always tried to run profits and bravely or stupidly the positions are staying open for now!

Dragon Oil is the big star today, and it's raced up through 440 and through an important breakout area. I am rather glad I topped up at 302, 304 and 307! Gains are now enormous - especially having more than doubled on the purchase at 187 and open spreadbets show profits of nearly £10,000. I'm sticking in there despite big temptations to bank as I think there is way more on the table. I rode Burren up from 241 all the way to 1230!

Also well up are other oilies including BG, Dana and Petrofac all hugely higher than when I bought on the dips.

Last buy Scott Wilson sees some very decent buying which has already pushed it 10p higher than when I bought and I think another 30pts could be there for the taking.

What can I say about recent purchase Aveva which has stormed up well over 100 points in just a few days, looking for another 100p there.

Recent buy Elementis is now showing excellent gains of more than 7%. New Brit has seen some big buyers today and glad I topped up last week. The original purchase looks excellent with the shares sitting nearly 200 points higher now.

And then there's lovely old BH Macro.. continues to go up, what a super fund up more than 250 points for me now.

Telecom Plus looks to have conquered 200p successfully setting up a near term return to 225p. Glad I held onto the Shire short as that is dropping again today.

I'm looking at re-shorting the FTSE again soon, not quite sure when the time will be but at around 6,000-6,200 I can't see an awful lot more upside for the moment. So unless there are major gains I think a short at these higher levels could pay off.

So I am a very happy bunny indeed. Of course pride comes before a fall but hanging onto these winners could be a very good move - but only time will tell. I'll probably just topslice a bit to kick off with if the market starts sinking Again.

Friday 1st February

  Hang on, where the hell did January go? Is it February already? May I be the first to wish you a Happy Easter!

Yes, saw the first headline featuring "eggs" yesterday. For the next few weeks get ready for the usual Easter puns from the headline writers. It's because they are exceptionally rubbish and trot out the same excruciating headlines every year. Well, what do you expect? Exactly!

The spell checker is going to go bananas when it sees that last