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Thanks to all of you who suggested ideas
for the TV. Pretty much all of you recommended Sony TV's as the best so that's
what we are going for. And someone (thank you) told us how to get a pretty good
discount, so thanks!
Elizabeth is so excited about the new place, it's great to see her
grinning from ear to ear. You see, she has a new nest that she owns not rents!
Makes a big difference. As it happens it looks like my predictions for London
house prices to tank was pretty hopeless!
As the price moves up then I move the stop/loss price up penny for penny behind the share price. If the share price then falls back to the share price then I sell it.
eg. If I buy a share at say 100p and then I set my stop/loss at 5p. Say the share price rises to 115p then the stop/loss would be raised by 15p.
When the price rises to 150pthe stop/
loss would be raised to 130p, thus locking in profits. Picking the right share
is only half the story. Deciding when to sell it, being brave enough to make the
decision is the other half. Onto the markets. One buy to report. And
it's one I have bought many times before and made good profits -
Havelock Europa (HVE). I bought
6,000 shares at
164.40p Target
220, stop
150. (The shares were already up
4p).
Apologies
to website readers who didn't get the update yesterday - down to a temporary
fault (server problems).Those of you on e-mailers were a bit luckier and got it.
I could e-mail but not update sadly. These things happen sometimes you'll just
have to forgive us. Regarding auto/mechanical stops left in
the market and being stopped out because of market maker games and price spikes
etc. How one legislates for that is all part of the challenge of trading. Onto the markets. Unusually for me I
picked at a FTSE 100 stock yesterday afternoon - I wanted some exposure to the
banking sector and went for Barclays
as it got hit by some profit taking. I managed to get some as it hit a low for
the day so quite pleased. I bought for
£20 a point at 646 -
target 695, stop
620.
Arrrrrgggghhhhhh! Ouch!!!
Blurggghhhhhhhh! I hope those words sum up nicely how the move went. I can't
ever remember being so stressed. However it's pretty much done now, so I'm going
to try and relax though it may take a few more days to get over the hell of
moving! However, I do leave what I call
'calamity' stops some way below (above short) where I would exit a trade
manually, so that I don't lose my shirt if terrorists strike etc. If markets become more volatile this
year, would you envisage a return to a more balanced trading style? i.e. a mix
of longs & shorts. Onto the markets. It feels like it's half
term week on the markets! It's very quiet like the roads around Fulham where I
live. All the posh set are off on their skiing breaks. Anyway in the middle of
my moving days on Friday I did manage to make a trade or two.
Firstly before I forget to mention it
there's no update tomorrow (Friday) due to moving house! While I'll be keeping
an eye on the markets from the safety of the cafe I hope not to have to trade
much. Now onto a stoploss mailbag:
Andrew writes: Just a quick query regarding Stop Losses. I know that this
is a difficult subject for people to get to grips with and that many articles
have been written about it but the experience I had just now makes me wonder if
it's worth setting them at all. I used to set my stops at about 5% and lost
quite a bit through being stopped out. I then decided not to bother with them
and of course several shares in my portfolio, particularly Kingfisher (why did I
ever touch it?), plummeted. Ok, I thought, this year, I'll reintroduce stop
losses and set them at about 7-8%. Kingfisher then dropped through this
limit (£2.21) and again I lost literally thousands of pounds, and yes, sod's
law, it has now risen up to about £2.40. I set a similar stop loss on Vodafone
and again got stopped out at 1.21, but that was fine, as the share continued
down to 1.17-1.18, so that one worked. Looked at the executed trades, I'd been
stopped out at 1.195 on Hays. Rechecked the current price: 1.23. Checked the
intra-day chart, followed it minute by minute, price never went below 1.225. So
I rang my broker to ask what was happening, he then disappeared for about 10
mins and said the share had actually hit 1.195 at 8.21. It can't have I said,
I'm looking at the Intra Day chart, the line doesn't go below 1.225 at any time
(and this is on a minute by minute time chart). He then went off again and
suggested I look at the trades since 8.00. I started going through them,
1.23,1.24,1.235,1.24(all at 8.21am).....and then on one line, I saw it: 1.195,
6000 shares at 8.21am next line 1.24(8.21am), 1.235(8.22am),1.24 etc. The broker said it was sheer bad luck,
it was an anomaly, it didn't happen very often and was obviously down to
somebody pulling a trade for that split second as it hadn't even shown up on the
intra day chart. So again, I've lost several hundred quid, but I'm not sure
where I went wrong or even if I did. How do you decide where to set the stop
and have you had any similar experiences to mine this morning on Hays? (Maybe
I'm being naive but it's the first time something like this has happened in 3
years of trading but then I haven't always used stop losses). It's now up to
1.255, grrrr..... I've had loads of mails on this and the
general view now is brokers and spread firms are too quick to close out
positions on silly spikes down which didn't really happen! There is a large range in most indices
during the course of one day, and just being at the wrong end is sure to produce
a horrid loss. It is for this reason that daytrading exists. Unfortunately, as in most subjects,
people tend to disbelieve what they do not understand. Understanding daytrading
an Index would change both the view and the expected average outcome. I have
been doing this for 19 years now. You would not ask for a medical opinion on
your teeth from a heart surgeon. Well I did say when sentiment shifts in
these markets it does it quickly! Some big movers for the portfolio today. First
this morning I topped up in Fenner (FENR).
Yes, I know I already have some at 181. Well I'm greedy and want more even at a
higher price.
Just a couple of days now till the big
move. Boxes all over the place as is everything else. Christopher loves it
though, he can wade through the stuff that's all over the place and play with
it. Onto the weak markets! Days like the last two
are always difficult if you are a longer-term investor like me. Do you say: oh
no, the bad times are here, get out take profits and come back in September? Recent buy
Mouchel Parkman is stabilising
well at much higher prices and though there may a small retrace back to 320 I
can see it hitting 350 by month end. CSR
has come back a little but no worries there - same with
Wolfson.
The Chunky Vs four finger wafer Kit Kat debate got quite heated. And the result of
the vote is: It's a tie!! The vote was split straight down the middle and as a
result, both wafer and chunky will be provided at the seminars. Onto the markets. I couldn't help adding
to my Mouchel Parkson (MCHL)
position yesterday afternoon and added a spreadbet long for
£50 a point at
319p. Target
350, stop
295.
We're moving on Friday so it's likely to be a stressful week. Got rid of
quite a few things using E-Bay. The fish tank went for £118. Table and chairs
for £105. The TV for £120. Brass bed for £100. Well, I know it's not much but
better than nothing eh? Onto the markets... A rather nice day! A
few stars kicking off with Mouchel
Parkman which published another excellent trading statement today. I'm
not sure what more you could want from a share that should be the bedrock of
every portfolio. Lovely growth, dividend.. you could just
leave all your money in this one for three years or so and possibly double your
money and get the dividends as well! And you'd sleep at night as even in a crash
they wouldn't be hit an awful lot.The shares have bust through 300 at last and
this looks good for a gentle ride up to 350.
hanks to Elizabeth's dad being here we got
out last night. First stop? The Big Easy in Chelsea which is a US style rib
shack. Onto the markets and some more excellent
movers today. Paragon gets the
star award as it heads into all time highs - can it get over the 700? I think
so!
Another full night's sleep! I'm sure I'm
looking ten year younger today. Thank you Christopher! I feel a bit sorry for
Domino, my (in cat's years) 144-year-old cat. Christopher chases her all over
the house and she's struggling to get any peace and quiet. So another lovely trading day. One more
new trade to add - a spreadbet buy I made yesterday afternoon in
Brixton
(BXTN) -
£30 a point at
461. Target
550 stop
440.
Hurrah!! Christopher slept through the
night for the first time in ages! I've had some sleep and I've got some
energy... what a feeling... Onto the markets. I had to top up in
Wolfson (WLF) and bought a
further 2,000 shares at
404.97p. Target
600, stop
350. I'm already in at 305 and
310!
Christopher is lovely but I must admit
him snoring in my ear at 5am does test the patience a bit! He had trouble
sleeping most of the night so to give Elizabeth a break I took him into the
spare room for a sleep after running him around the living room to try and wear
him out. Onto the markets and another pretty dull
day though I guess it all can't be as exciting as last week! Having said that
there are a few good movers. Nothing springing to mind as a buy today and
nothing really shouting for me to sell either!
I was feeling really good this morning
till my accountant e-mailed me to say I owe the taxman £2,000 more than I had
been led to believe! Great time to tell me on the day I have to send the cheque
off! Reckon it's time to change my accountant.... I think the week coming up is actually
going to very good for shares. The US market has quickly recovered from it's
last correction and so has ours. Next week I think we see the likes of
Caterpillar and Honeywell report in the US and these companies, Caterpillar
especially nearly always report excellent results. In my view the sellers are out of the
way now and some good results will lead the market higher. My plan at the moment
is to bias quite heavily towards equities still at least until March when I may
reduce a little, keeping most of my positions probably in oils. My thinking on this is that
traditionally going into the summer months equities tend to be flat and
underperform generally. Also by then we'll probably be sitting on some pretty
decent gains and we also have this nightmarish Israel/ Iran thing going on.
At the moment the Israelis are going to
let this simmer on on the diplomatic side simply because the weather is so lousy
that they can't attack those nuclear installations yet. But once we start moving
into the spring the clouds lift, the weather improves and in my view if they're
going to attack they'll do it then. I'll let you imagine what that will do A. to
the oil price and B. to the stock market. I don't want to start sounding like
bloody Nostradamus or some would be 'expert' on world crises but at the moment,
unless the Iranians back down I can see this thing just getting worse. At the
moment we're in a really virtuous situation at the moment where oil stocks are
doing well because the oil price is up but at the same time we're seeing non oil
stocks booming simply because of all this M&A activity. Nobody wants to miss out on the
possibility their company might get took over. In all, to March the market will,
I believe, do nicely. After that, from April to Sept expect some real nasties.' Onto the markets. Two buys and a sell
today! First up is a buy - now call me a hypocrite - (you flaming hypocrite -
Ed) but I've bought a share that I probably wouldn't recommend in my book as it
doesn't on the face of it look great value. And when there's no news forthcoming on
a share like this you almost inevitably see drifting. Of course one could easily
hold these long-term and see a good rise but for right now I want to use the
money elsewhere.
Well, what a week - not sure whether I should
be laughing or crying. On the crying side, we've had a terrible week with all
the sickness in the household. Christopher and Elizabeth are still
being a bit sick though I'm starting to feel better now. Poor Christopher
vomited a lot in the early hours and we got up, changed him and made him feel
better. We're starting to worry about his small size again especially as he's
not keeping much food down at the moment. Only Barrymore winning will cock it up
for me but I can't see that happening. I hope some of you made some profit on it
this year.
Right, mailbag time,
Mark writes: 'Glad you took my
advice on the parking ticket. Not sure I'd make it public too much. May just
have someone logging on for Westminster Council. Wow - what a day on the markets for me with a
lot of the portfolio simply rocketing up to add many thousands in profits today
alone.
You've got to laugh! George Galloway
isn't standing for parliament again - but who brought about his downfall? Saddam
Hussein? No? Saddam's son Uday? No! Tony Blair? No... he was brought down by.. Carl writes:' I personally
can't see Chantelle winning now, I've laid off much of my risk and have a strong
suspicion it will be between Preston and Pete.' Carl - can't agree with you on that I think Pete has no chance! Onto the markets. It's always worth
watching the volumes on your favourite shares. If they trade 3 or 4 times as
much volume than normal it's often worth noting. It sometimes means an institution is
buying in or people are buying on inside info. Like
Birse (BIE) which normally trades
around 150,000-200,000 shares daily trades traded over 700,000 yesterday.
Ugh! What an awful couple of days we've
been through. All the household got a very nasty stomach virus - me, Elizabeth,
Christopher and Eliz's Dad who is staying with us spent the time being sick,
accompanied by awful headaches and every other thing you could think of. Onto the markets. After not turning on
the computer for a day and not having a clue what was going on I must say I'm
delighted. Many shares in the portfolio have rocketed up yet again to make this
the best ever start to any year for me.
Yes, it's officially the most depressing day of the year today! So if you
feel depressed it's only natural. I don't but then I'm a lucky boy and I can sit
here drinking tea and eating toast all day if I want. Onto the mailbag.
Alan writes: 'I've recently
bought into Tullow, and intend to stick with it, but wondered if you saw
Saturday's Daily Mail, on the bottom of the City page (111) ? It says broker sells Tullow Oil : 'Numis
says sell now at 302p, because better value elsewhere in the sector'.! This looked like a perfect buying
opportunity, so I piled in long with £10 per point and a wide stop loss in case
of fluctuation...anyway, how wrong I was ! I had to pop out shopping for a while,
and on returning been stopped out completely. It dropped another 170 points! As
usual it's always news, news and news, that moves indexes. In this case it was a
combination of oil price, Bin Laden's little statement, and bad news from G.E
and City Group all in a day. Onto the markets. Definitely an ignore
the markets day and get stuck into tea and toast, or what is becoming known as
my TT days. It was fairly obvious the markets were going to open lower but why
sell at the opening low prices?
Things are looking up! Christopher seems
a lot better and slept for most of the night. I gave him a tiny bit of my milky
bar (after I'd wolfed down 2) and he did a broad smile... and promptly fell
asleep. So this is my advice to you parents:
give em a bit of milky bar and they will nod off. I bought some nasal congestion
stuff which seems to have worked. We shall see! Onto the mailbag:
Gordon writes: 'Robbie , have you
considered that if George Galloway gets into the last 3 he could win ! He has a
massive Muslim following , might be a touch off the wall but it might be worth a
punt ?' I have attempted to watch it on three occasions and all
I ever want to do after ten minutes is throw up or smash up the poor television.
And what do we get for that: poor public transport,
crap roads and a police service incapable to protect the vulnerable and yes
before I forget a justice system which cares more about the criminal than the
victim! Enough of that.' If you are just starting along this exiting and
sometimes rough road, Hear This! Whatever you do don't spend money at the start.
There is so much free stuff out there. Onto the markets: Goodness there are
just so many tempting shares out there at the moment - I have a shortlist of ten
and after much thought I decided today to buy the one I thought would make me
the most amount of money in the shortest time! The company is building for its future and I think the
price is likely to head up towards the 200p level quite rapidly, perhaps even in
just a few weeks.
Apologies for the lack of an update
yesterday, sadly due to technical
problems the site itself could not be updated. But it reminds me why I could never be a
very short-term trader. All that chasing shares up and down constantly. I'd be
rubbish - much prefer medium term investing where to an extent you can ride out
days like this. Just as well I acted fast as when I got
home from the hospital, the spread had been raised even more and I would have
ended up losing another £100 or so. Just like shares, when you know you've made
a mistake, you have to get out fast. I thought I would feature one
interesting mail on the mailbag today, without an answer as yet because I
wondered whether any readers would like to try and answer... here it is from
Sue: Onto the markets. Those of you who missed
yesterday's update what I said yesterday when the markets were going down was
that I wasn't worried and took is as a cue to have the day off and just eat lots
of tea and white toast. Which was what I did. I also said I was glad I
wasn't a short-term trader! As a medium-term investor I could ride out the
falls. Carphone
Warehouse, Victrex and
Shanks all still look good value
and as long as the bull run carries on I am hopeful of continued good gains.
Poor old Christopher.... he's not
himself at the moment and has a bit of a temperature. So we're keeping him nice
and warm with lots of cuddling. He's usually always on the go so it's
strange to see him so quiet. Of course as parents we worry but know this is
something all kids go through. Onto the markets. The FTSE may be down a
lot but the portfolio remains looking rather good! One new addition to the Naked
Trader share collection today - and one sell to get the cash to make the buy if
you know what I mean!
Well, thanks for all the advice
regarding the parking ticket! You all agree - do not admit the permit had fallen
down! So I've sent off a letter saying something to the effect that the warden
must have missed the permit and I refuse to pay... I'll let you all know if the
appeal is successful... Onto the markets. For quite a while now I've
been topping up on winning shares and boy has this strategy worked well for me
especially with Burren and CSR. So I've topped up on a big winner this morning
and that's Tullow Oil (TLW) . I really think it's time for a change in
this country. Are you as sick as I am of a nasty feeling coming from Government
and Councils? Kind of let's take as much off them as we can dare without
appearing that way?
What a repulsive day! Rainy windy and just
horrible. Thank goodness I don't have to go near an office anymore, can't think
of anything worse than if I'd had to get up this morning and travel to work! I stopped work as an accountant about 3
years ago (best decision I ever made) and have gradually built up my trading
since then with a view to being able to work from home and build up a reasonable
income. It also means that I am now able to
spend more time with my 6 week old daughter, Rebecca, who I have to say is
extremely cute (but then I am biased). Hope Christopher is behaving himself! Onto the markets. One new buy today - and I
remain building positions while the market is strong - and that's a spreadbet
buy of Hikma (HIK) for
£30 a point at
404. Target
500 stop
370. Robbie Burns has been trading successfully for over 7 years, having spent 1996 to 2001 as finance and general editor for Sky TV's text services. Robbie has started this commentary page on Sky and Channel 5 text in 2000 and ran it until summer 2002, during which time he made profits of more than £50,000, even during the bear market from 2001. Robbie now runs an independent cafe and catering business, but trades more or less full time. He uses ISA's and PEP's to avoid tax liabilities and runs his own pension fund in a SIPP. Visit his site here
Good mail Reg!
As older readers will know I bought at 95 and sold at 120, bought at 111
and sold at 135! And now I'm getting in again.
I don't think there is a cheaper share on the market despite recent rises. The
current market cap looks way too low compared to profits.
A recent trading statement shows the company is doing fine and the shares
are undervalued even if the results only come in in line with expectations.
Anything over that and 220 looks a likely target here.
Of course I wish I'd bought in lower but I'm not someone who worries about
missing points and always happy to buy into shares at a higher price than I
could have got a couple of weeks ago! Something many investors can't bring
themselves to do. I feel pretty confident that I'll get at least 15-20% on this
one.
I needed something to sell to get the cash for Havelock so tried to find
the weakest link - a tough one but I ended up selling
Birse for
13.3 to make such a small profit
I am not even going to count it! We'll call it breakeven!
This little gamble just hasn't come off. However a big dividend is paid in
April and my thoughts are to get back in sometime next month.
A pretty good end to what's been a very quiet week indeed!
MTL Instruments has had a very
good week and up again today. Going to be exciting to see whether it can break
500 or not next week. If it does, expect fireworks here and if it enters the
main FTSE indexes in March it could do even better.
Shanks is still a strong
market and a break through 180 will see 190.
Tulllow fights back to get over
300 again. An inevitable bid coming for this one this year I reckon. Just a
matter of being brave and holding on.
A quiet week for Burren,
CSR and
Wolfson three of my biggest
profit-makers. The jury is out on whether they are over the worst but all three
could bouce significantly now. Burren especially looks a strong buy at 930!
Great to see Highway Insurance
poke above 75p today. This looks a very bullish sign and my buys in the late 50s
are looking rather good!!
Rotork is breaking through
again - a boring engineer that I shall soon be doubling my money on! My recent
investment trust buy Pantheon
looks on a breakout and confident here.
VP is looking rather
exciting - already doubled my money on this one and as it heads for 300p I can
see it getting up to the 320 level. At that point I am going to consider taking
profits!
Thursday 16th February
In a way it's kind of a positive thing for me today as I'm feeling rather
tired and stressed after the move I can now repeat what I said yesterday! Which
is what is coming up now. But of course this is new for all of you so that's
ok!!
So lots to do... furniture to buy, boxes to clear... thank goodness the
market is fairly stable! Christopher is starting to settle in though he misses
whizzing up and down the stairs.
And all me and Elizabeth can do is stare at our amazing place and go - is
this really ours?? We are really looking forwards to showing it off to friends
as soon as it's all under control.
I feel slightly sad about the smoking ban and I'm not sure why. I don't
smoke but I feel it's sad to think of smokers not being able to smoke in pubs.
Isn't that what gave the places some atmosphere?
Anyone out there knowledgable about televisions? I want to spend about a
grand to two grand on a high definition ready TV probably around 26-32 inches.
What's the best one? Any ideas?? Be grateful!!
Let's move to the mailbag: Here's
Bill: All these people , and all these bright ideas . We know your common
sense and proven method works well enough to beat most so called 'experts' out
of sight. I should think looking after this web site is getting as busy as being
back at work . but I suppose making money whilst teaching people how to look
after themselves is kinda good fun . I nearly forgot , why is Burren taking so
long to get over one bit of not very bad news
Hi Bill. Yes the site is starting to resemble full time work... hmm, am I
really out of the rat race? Only joking, it's great fun to do. Re Burren it's
more the oil prices sinking I think.
Back to the stop loss arguments -
Frank says: A trade is a trade is a trade - it is what it is - nothing less and
certainly nothing more than just one trade in a lifetime of trades.
Provided it is executed properly as per a trading plan, in its most
fundamental form a trade has only two outcomes, it either makes you right or
wrong, a winner or a loser.
STOP LOSSES ONLY BECOME AN ISSUE WHEN TRADERS ELEVATE THE RELATIVE
IMPORTANCE OF AN INDIVIDUAL TRADE..
Some of the reasons for doing this include, a need to be right, to satisfy
an ego or perhaps because his position size is greater than he feels comfortable
with, in which case the outcome of the trade can assume life and death
proportions.
When a trade goes in your favour, some of the most creative work is
required to manage it properly to optimise profit. When it goes against you,
your stop ensures you loose small and intelligently and should be no big
issuTuesday 14th February
Thanks Frank - good points as always.
Banks look likely to go well in the next few weeks. Plenty of rumours
around of bids and takeovers and Barclays does look in the frame for some
action. My trade is based on a medium-term view.
I bought a small high risk stock today- as usual for entertainment
purposes for my SIPP - however it's not one I would like to highlight here as I
feel that would be irresponsible so I've mentioned this one to my e-mail
subscribers. Subscription details available by mailing me.
The half term quietish market continues. There seems to be wider spreads
and less orders around which makes it difficult to trade anything.
If I was more a short-term trader it would probably tempt me to buy
Burren at around the current 930
level - it keeps bouncing off 930 so one would guess 960 could easily be
achieved quite quickly!
Similarly Wolfson seems to
be finding a bottom in the 370-380 area and a buy could prove profitable once
the current lull is out of the way.
Shanks is up nicely today
after a Merryl Lynch upgrade with target of 195. It was worth being patient with
this one. Now the 170 is broken, 180-190 should be a doodle.
CSR is dealing in wide
spreads right now due to wide mm spreads and not many orders coming in. One to
hold rather than trade I reckon! Tullow
and Dragon look to be about to
stage a rally.
One of my faves MTL Instruments
still looks in a strong uptrend though I will have to weather market maker
shenanigans. Gyrus sits at a
major breakout level.
Good buying coming into recent buy
Pantheon - if only the mm's would cut the spread!
Highway Insurance is trying hard
to break that 75p. Look for quick gains if it does.So in summary the quiet times
continue!
Tuesday 14th February
The worst thing of the lot was the removal firm trying to get the
treadmill downstairs. It took two hours and they gashed the wall badly.
The estate agent then phoned our landlord who (just as well) lives in
Scotland. She gave us a mouthful despite the fact we have promised to put it
right.
I don't want to bore you here with the full details of the move except it
wasn't easy. My 120 year old cat did not appreciate being moved and Christopher
is a bit disorientated.
However there IS a happy end to the story. The new flat is AMAZING!. I
hadn't seen the final version and Elizabeth as project manager did a fantastic
job.
The flooring is great, so are the carpets and my new trading office is
just stupendous. I can hardly believe my luck that I will be sitting and trading
looking out over a beautiful part of the River Thames.
It's all peaceful and calm, just a river, birds and joggers, as far away
from the rat race as you can imagine. Now moving away from me (it's always me,
me, me here, isn't it - but it's free therapy for me so leave me alone!!)
Let's move on to YOU with the mailbag - remember last week we were talking
stop losses?
This post from MT Glass is
a must read:
'...I still believe that, whatever trading system you operate, the ability to
cut one's losses ruthlessly, quickly and decisively is a vital quality for any
successful trader. People who let their losses run are, IMO, imposing a serious
handicap on their stockmarket performance..'
Totally agree.
In footballing terms, 'keeping a clean sheet' (letting in no goals against
selves) makes life so much easier for ones strikers who only need score one goal
to collect all the points. A team which lets in three goals forces its strikers
to work much much harder in requiring four goals to collect the same points. It
is so much easier to advance portfolio value if the gains upfront are not
constantly undermined by daft errors at the back.'
A great football analogy so 'well done my son' to MT Glass! It's an old
saying but if you don't cut the losers and let them run you are scoring own
goals and will not make money.
Robin writes: Hope the move
went well, and every blessing for you in your new home. On the subject of stops,
like you I don't leave 'auto' stops with my broker- preferring to close
positions myself if I have to.
I bought yet more MTL Instruments
(MTI). Already in at 343, 385, and 389 I am back for some more and
grabbed another 1,500 shares at
450p. Stop loss
385, target
550p.
Already gone through the reasons why I like this one a few times - mainly
I love the business. But the main reason for topping up is its likely promotion
out of the FTSE fledgling index into the FTSE proper next month. I think that's
likely to push it over 500p.
There is risk attached to this one: mainly that for the moment there are
only three market-makers which means as well as going up nicely it could also
fall sharply if the mm's decide to tree-shake - ie, scare and panic holders to
sell. They did this just after I bought at 385 - they pushed it rapidly down to
330 - I took advantage and topped up at 343.
So I guess I could possibly be buying high as there could be a shake down
to 420. But as a medium-term hold it doesn't worry me.
I needed to sell something to raise the cash and plumped for
Dignity selling my
1,300 shares for
477.1p to bank a profit of
£328.
Nothing sinister about this - in fact I still have a hefty spread bet on
Dignity so I am in effect only selling a few. Still like Dignity but just felt
it's unlikely to move as fast as MTI short term.
Glad to see my very good friend and brilliant options trader Laurent
agrees with me about my recent buy of Investment Trust
Pantheon which is on the rise
today. Laurent says: Nice one with Pantheon - the sort of thing I like for the
long term.
Elsewhere the oils are a little weak today but nothing to get concerned
about - the chip stocks too - however they are all quality and will bounce back.
Fenner holds well at higher
prices and a break through 210 will see 220 quickly.
AS Atkins has stormed back
up to 780 and needs to get through this to confirm a proper breakout to new
levels. Otherwise it's a quiet half term which is just as well as more moving to
do this afternoon!
Thursday 9th January
In fact my thought is hang around the cafe as much as possible in case I
get called on to shift stuff...No that I'm lazy or anything (ahem) just hate
moving things because heavy objects tend to always land on my foot.
Anyway I'm very excited... I've not seen the new place for nearly 2 months
while it's been gutted and then re-built. Elizabeth has project managed the
whole thing and is also very excited at showing it all to me. In particular I am
looking forward to seeing my new office overlooking the Thames.
I must say I'm really glad I worked hard over the years on my trading, the
cafe and other income because it's given me immense pleasure to get where I am
using my own efforts.
My parents never gave me a bean and I did it all myself. You can too -
it's a question of working at it. But you should never just think of trading as
a way out of your job/the rat race - you must work at other incomes - read my
Escape piece.
The site portfolio is sitting on amazing profits of around £70,000 or
more! I am delighted! So I'll be back on Monday with a full report on the move!
Last week, I set a stop loss on Hays which I had bought for 1.30 sometime
last year, so I set the stop loss at 1.20 (i.e. c.8%). It has been trading
between about 1.24-1.255 for weeks so I thought this week I would sell it,
hopefully at about 1.25 and cut my losses. I logged on this morning and saw the
market was down but that Hays was at about 1.225. Ok I thought, it' s still not
close to the stop, I'll go and have a cuppa. Watched a bit of the news for about
10-15 mins and went back upstairs. Checked my portfolio, no Hays.
So anyway, excuse the ramble, but I think it's an important point: was I
just unlucky, or should I set my stop losses even lower when I purchase the
share originally, or is there some other method I haven't considered? I have
read the relevant sections in your book and I notice when you have bought shares
or use a spread bet, your stop loss %age varies quite considerably.
Thanks for interesting ramble Andrew... my current view is that as long as
you have access to the markets for most of the day you should handle stop losses
yourself and not do automated ones.
For example I would have got stopped out on my Brixton spreadbet if I had
an auto stop loss - but I knew broker downgrades had caused the fall and it was
likely to bounce. I was able to decide not to close out the position but hold on
which was the right move.
However I am glad to publish the other side of the argument as
professional trader Richard writes to take me to task for my views on stop
losses!
Richard writes: Your
statement on stops relies on the following premises:-
(a) That the punter is physically able to monitor his positions, difficult if he
or she is in an orthodox job.
(b) That the trading of the individual is consistent enough not to need auto
stops to at least limit the damage, bearing in mind that, in real life, the
trading ability of most people is next to hopeless.
(c) That the terrorists don't blow up the stock exchange which re-opens in a
week 2000 points down.
Approaching the trading of an index in the same way as approaching
the trading of an underlying share is an error.
And finally
Any more views on stop losses welcome!
I was waiting to see whether it could break the 200 and that was achieved
yesterday. This now opens up the 230-240 area. I bought a further
3,000 shares at
202.99p - target
240, stop
190.
I've explained why I love this one a few times and it's also in my book
where I bought at 81p. There is much further to go and the price has already
moved up this morning. A bargain with little risk.
Where do I start with all the great risers today? Let's go alphabetically!
Atkins is breaking out bigtime
with the move to 774 opening up a price close to 800.
Burren is recovering from recent
lows and the first target is to get back to above 1000.
Brixton is back above stop
loss levels (thank goodness I handle my own stop losses or I'd have been closed
out) - it should easily recover further.
Centaur, Carphone,
CSR and
Chesnara all nicely higher as are
Gyrus and
Hunting.
After a quiet spell my recovery play
Harvey Nash goes very well today
with market makers scrambling to buy stock. One suspects a good trading update
is on the way!
Highway Insurance is trying
to break that sticky 75p area - a breakthough will see 80p fast.
Shanks looks poised to
breakthough 171 - and Wolfson is
doing its best to get back over 400 - the more points the better to get into the
FTSE 250.
The market-makers have tried to choke off trading in my new buy,
investment trust Pantheon (pin)
by widening the spread. That game can't last because the net asset value should
rise again and let the price shoot higher in time. I feel confident! My recent
high risk share buy goes nicely today.Wendesday 8th January
Hang on, he's just biting one of my CD's.... hey.... no... not Britney!!
Get off!! Talking of Christopher... Jimbo who does all the printing for my cafe
and the seminars has just mailed me:
Or... do you remember you're a longer-term investor and just ride out
falls. Or indeed do you dip in and buy at low prices?
There's the dilemma. And don't believe any expert who pretends to tell you
they know - they don't and neither do I. We're only guessing. All of us.
What I do know is I've invested in very sound companies with real profits
and growth prospects - also I am in excellent profits on all of them and so I'm
prepared to give a bit back because I think they will pick up again.
What I don't like doing is taking profits and then trying to buy back
lower. First there's the costs of doing that - then the angst of getting back in
and having to spend a lot more time at the screen. It's not my way.
In fact rather than selling I have bought something new today and when I
say new a completely new type of buy for me.
It's an investment trust that seems to be managed beautifully. And it just
keeps going up. It invests in unquoted funds and this one seems a very
interesting one to get some exposure to.
It goes up and down like any other share but 95% of the time it's going up
and I'm hoping this will carry on. The Trust is
Pantheon (PIN) and I bought
800 shares this morning at
837.15p - target
1000, stop
790.
Its top ten portfolio holdings are a mystery but I like that! I'm getting
an interesting exposure to unquoted funds and I'm hoping it will be an
interesting and very profitable exposure.
The spread seems to be pretty light, usually 3 points and even better
private investors obviously don't trade it much, generally bought and sold in
big lots by institutions.
Of course I wish I'd spotted this one sooner and been in at a lower price
and there of course is a risk of a retrace but a risk I think worth taking. All
one can say is: what a chart!!!
Talking of stop losses, glad I don't have automated ones - that would have
stopped me out of Brixton but as
I handle my own I'm giving it a tiny bit more slack because I think a bounce is
likely. We'll see.
After a terrible start to the day the oils have all recovered nicely
especially Burren and
Dragon now up after kicking off
with big falls.
MTL Instruments is
beginning to look very interesting - I've been patient with my 3 positions on
this one and noted another big buyer today - happy to pay 435.
WS Atkins is really motoring now
and breaking out nicely - could be a good few more points in it.
In fact looks to me like Wolfson could well get into the FTSE 250 in the
March 8 review and that could really lift it some more.
Tuesday 7th February
When you get there grab the bar you want. And if one bar runs out quicker
than the other we know the vote was rigged. Just three days to go before the big
move to the riverside apartment. Will all the work be finished on time?
Can we get everything packed? Will the internet work in the new place?
Have we cancelled everything/set everything up?
The list goes on and it's going to be stress city. One way or another we
should be living there from Saturday. I'll fill you in with my new-look life
next week!
How disappointing the new Ch4 'comedy' the IT Crowd was. It had been hyped
up in advance and what a load of crap it was. I tried my hardest and stayed with
it for quite a while. Then again I suppose if you happened to be 18-years-old
and pissed you might have enjoyed it.
Colin writes: Although
Burns night has already been celebrated by the military, ours is on Thursday
next in the Garrison Library where Lord Nelson, at one time, must have trod the
floorboards. We have also moved flats and I can sympathize with Elizabeth. My,
how stressful and traumatic it was, and we only moved from one Apartment block
to the adjacent one.
I know that you do not give advice or recommendations so I must couch my
thirst for knowledge carefully so it falls outside your prohibitions. There has
been speculation about the company soon to be launched, QINETIQ PLC, and I
wondered if you might include some comment on this in your almost daily website
missive??? This would be most welcome.
Hi! Yes a few mails about this. My view is when something is as hyped up
as this is it is best left alone. I can imagine what will happen is I'll send
off a cheque for £5k and end up with stock worth £800 as applications are bound
to be scaled down radically.
It's really as simple as that. Some may make small amounts buying in the
float and then selling at a profit but once commission is taken into account it
won't be much and quite simply I can't be bothered!!
I waxed lyrical yesterday about Mouchel and won't go on about it but it
looks a lovely stock and fair value here is 350-400. There's a chance of 400 I
believe. It's also a relatively safe stock if times become more troubled.
It was also the stock chosen as 'stock to buy of the day' at my last
December seminar so hope all those that attended are sitting on some good
profits now!
A rocky road for oil stocks today with most coming off after BP's profits
disappointed (though wouldn't mind making those profits would you?) There's a
simple question here: is that it for oil stocks or is this a temporary blow off?
I've decided to hold fast - not really that hard a obviously the huge
profits I've built up in my three oils -
Dragon, Burren and
Tullow have only been slightly
dented. One suspects after the blow off, investors will see much cheaper prices
and will pile back in.
Be interesting to see whether I'm right. In any case I am happy to take
profits at a lower level and take a chance. Remember how easily sentiment swings
in the markets these days
Recent buy Brixton has got
hit by two broker downgrades and is hovering around the stop loss. My experience
is stocks usually recover quite quickly from these sorts of downgrades. However
I am trying to stick by stop losses and my finger is close to the sell button.
Wolfson has come down to
test 400 again - quite an important level here and here's hoping it holds! There
are some bright spots in a dull and down day.
CSR looks strong, it just keeps
bouncing whenever there's a sign of weakness.
Also going very well today is WS Atkins
- up 14p with some very nice buying coming in.
Abacus also going well today with
a good lift over 150 and Rotork
too is holding nicely. So while not exactly a great day, it's not that bad.Monday 6th February
I see the National opera is taking industrial action. Can't say it bothers
me as I'm not a fan. But just to say if you are a fan, don't worry because
remember: it ain't over till the fat lady sings!
Christopher is dying to talk - he just talks a lot of incomprehensible
gibberish at the moment - takes after his Dad!
Stephen writes in response
to Frank on Friday who argued TA was as important as fundamentals. 'Perhaps I
can share my experience. Started investing a couple of years ago - based on
looking at fundamentals and growth sectors - outcome moderately successful
(still aspiring to your heights though)
Started trading a year ago - looking primarily at charts - outcome -
washing my feet but not much more. So my take is that if you select shares on
fundamentals and growth, they they will come good and value will out.... but to
just look technically is much more chancy.
I'm now moving to a position - whether investing or trading - where I
start with the fundamentals and hot sectors - and only then check the charts to
ensure my timing is right - for me starting with charts is the wrong approach
(but it might work for others).
Thanks Steve. The thing is everyone has their own approach and it's up to
you to make your own decisions on the TA/fundamentals balance. All I can say is
show me the rich chartist!
As I suspected it would, CSR
is firing up again after the recent uncalled for weakness - lots and lots more
to come... same comment applies to chip mate
Wolfson.
My lovely White Young Green
continues its merry way up - it's featured in my book when I first bought at
200p and now it's knocking on 400p.
Hunting and
Gyrus, two big growth companies
continue to scale highs and both look extremely good.
Fenner is ready for a strike over
200 - watch for fireworks once over the threshold.
Carphone Warehouse is
ringing up the rises as it heads back up towards recent highs. The recent
weakness will soon be forgotten.
Not much disappointing at the moment. Perhaps
Abacus but that's temporary.
Brixton is the only real
disappointment but don't feel that worried - it should bounce back up again.
Costain has been a long
weary weight but in profit now! If 50p can be broken it could look interesting
again and would open up 54 in time. Not sure how long the patience can hold out!
Friday 3rd February
Hmmmm, we had ribs, shrimp and Mexican stuff. Lovely. Followed by waffles
and chocolate sauce. Yummy. Good music and service too.
Must get round to the crabs' legs next time - yes sounds horrid doesn't it
but had them in Miami and they are very tasty if you can forget what you're
actually eating.
Then off to see the new Woody Allen movie Match Point which I can
recommend highly. It's not a comedy for a change but a pretty good thriller with
good use made of the London backdrop.
Of course the cast is impossibly good-looking and lots of pouting and a
few duff lines but even so enough to keep most entertained and a good final
twist.
By the way out on Monday (or yesterday if you do DVD rentals in a certain
cafe!) on DVD is Pride and Prejudice with Keira Knightley which is pretty good.
A couple of messages from my market maker 'mole' at a spread betting firm
regarding the weekend sport:
'The Six Nations starts tomorrow and total tournament points, wides and yellow
cards are all trading down a couple of points at 693-708, 64-67 and 14.5-16
respectively. Wales are drifting on the outright index and are down a point to
15-18.
France and England have been supported long-term and both sides are up a
point on the outright index (France: 45-48, England: 38-41). England tournament
points are also up a notch to 139-146 from an opening 138-145
North of the border, Rangers have come in for support. Their Win Index for
tomorrow's live clash against Hibs is up half a point to 18-19.5.
Dignity is rising from the
dead (gettit, it's a funeral chain) with news of an £85m issue - the story has
only just come in so haven't had time to get my head round it but the market
obviously likes it.
Recent buy Fenner is up yet
again and it could scale that 200p level any time.
White Young Green is storming
higher today after announcing yet another acquisition.. this company is
determined to grow and this'll help it on the way to the 400 mark.
Recent buy Brixton is down
a bit today but this looks like a very temporary retrace and I expect upwards
movement to continue - I'm considering topping up at slightly lower levels...
Burren has been in the
doghouse the last two days but I see this move below 1000p again to not last
long. The sell off is way overdone now.
CSR is climbing back nicely
from recent falls and happy to see the 1100 level regained.
Wolfson is down again as the last
of the profit takers, er take their profits - a great company with a great
future and I'm not selling mine!
Centaur is rising well
today as is Highway. So all in
all a pretty good week except for Burren and CSR... but they WILL be back!!
Thursday 2nd February
She's so good with him, never raises a paw in anger and kind of looks
resigned. 'It used to be just us,' she says. 'Then along came Elizabeth which
took some getting used to. Now here's someone else. Is that it now because if
any more arrive on the scene I am leaving!' Don't worry Domino. That's it!
I'm trying to tell Sky that I need to disconnect their service in a few
days.. it's piped in via cable in the new place. Mind you I'd probably have
cancelled anyway as once you get past the main channels it's all repeats.
So I've tried to phone. The automated voice surprisingly doesn't have an
option for cancelling. Just 'upgrading' 'skybox' etc etc.
Well, the last few times I've tried the voice says an operator will be
with you in 'Under 28 minutes'! 28 minutes!! You think I'm going to hang on the
phone listening to crap music at 7p a minute!
So I sent them an e-mail asking for confirmation of receipt. Guess what?
No reply! I'm getting very tempted to delete the direct debit and just move to
the new address they haven't got and dump the equipment in the garden. Then it
moves from being my problem to their problem!
Lovely looking share this one and by the way I haven't just bought into a
tube station. Brixton is a property investment and developer and doing a really
good job. Wonderful fundamentals and a great chart add up to lots more gains on
the way.
I was looking for some exposure to this sector and this is the best one. I
expect big rises up to 550. It's up another 7p already today and there is no
stopping it. Actually maybe I'll buy some more right now!
Star of the day award to my buy of yesterday -
Fenner - making an exciting stab
at getting over 200. I'm already up 10% in just a day. Great news if it does
because it'll race up to 220 in no time. Oh, I just love boring old conveyor
belts!
Burren is up and down like
crazy today - manna from heaven for day traders! They found a dry well but say
this will have a 'neglible' effect on its reserves. So no big deal really. Not
that it matters to me as I know I'm holding a future FTSE 100 company and it's a
long-term hold.
Good old Wolfson is up
again even though The Telegraph and The Times rate it a sell. As usual my
response is: What the **** do these finance journalists know? Do you think if
they were any good they'd be turning up to a dreary office every day? Remember
that!
They are reading a different report than me - it should be at least 500
quite quickly and 600 by year end. The Independent at least got it right with a
buy rating. If I'd listened to journalists and brokers I would have sold off all
my stock months ago!
I haven't mentioned Paragon
for a bit - wow that is going great guns now - up to nearly 700 - a break though
that would be significant for even bigger profits.
Two of my faves Hunting and
Gyrus look like they're about to
break out again bigtime. Abacus
is bouncing as predicted yesterday - needs a good close above 150 to advance.
Carphone Warehouse is
starting to pick up - not bothered by recent retrace as it's a long-termer - I'd
be surprised if this wasn't over 400p by year end - a cracking company.
Rotork builds on its great gains
over the last few days. Dragon
has sailed nicely over 230p.
Wendesday 2nd February
In fact he's back to his best and for the first time this morning he
toddled out of the house with his mum to walk a few steps.
He goes to nursery on Wednesdays and Fridays so Elizabeth can have some
time off and so he gets to have another environment with other babies and people
to play with - good to make him independent.
Looking back I think I know what my mother did to make me independent and
what I want to do with Christopher - that is, speech and drama. You know,
reciting poetry and reading on the stage. Really helps with confidence.
I've already made a packet on Wolfson but the best is yet to come.
Fantastic results and further growth to come equals a share that is obviously
undervalued and I'm very happy to be in for more.
The market makers did a transparent treeshake to under 400 to knock out
the 400 stoplosses!! As soon as I saw the price start to shift back up I bought
though missed the best prices of the day. I-Pods rule!
Another buy made yesterday afternoon - back to an old favourite
Fenner (FENR). I bought
2,500 shares at
180.47p. And also a spreadbet buy
at £50 a point at
181. Target
220, stop
160.
Made loads on Fenner in the past and it features in my book a lot - last
took profits at 145 or so after buying at 86. I know I've missed out on a few
points but that never stops me from going in again.
Huge demand for Fenner's conveyor belts in China is going to see the share
price soar in my opinion and happy to be back in. 200 will prove hard to get
through but once through 220 should be a doddle.
Elsewhere plenty of great moves for the portfolio.
Hunting is the star of the day -
a huge rise today and a great chance of getting to 400.
Rotork carries on its
amazing run - another hundred points on the cards here.
CSR bounces back as predicted -
just a question of holding on there.
Gyrus is another good
mover. Little gamble Birse is
starting to motor now - 14p is a sticky area but once through 15-16 beckons -
tasty 8% dividend too. Only disappointment right now is
Abacus but I think it's likely to
bounce and I can't believe there's much downside.
Tuesday 31st January
My goodness the finance news is boring at that time of the morning (even
more boring than Bloomberg). So from 5am-7am I had a fitful sleep with C snoring
heavily into my ear.
I dreamt I was in front of the computer and instead of share prices there
was one word in a box on the screen. Snoring - delete? I pressed the delete
button but sadly I woke up and he was still going strong. Still, at least I can
go to bed and try and recover sometime today.
Those of you coming to the March 10th seminar will shortly receive some
more in depth details about the day, probably at the weekend. I'm very excited
to be doing another one as I really enjoy them and meeting you all. March 10th
is full now but there are spaces left for the March 24th seminar - do mail me if
you are interested.
Elizabeth is busy working on the new flat - she has dozens of workmen in
there which means I've had to increase her budget by another £5,000. Looks like
I'm going to have to hold one last seminar later this year!
We're moving the weekend after next and I'm not allowed to see it till
then - I'm looking forwards to seeing my state of the art trading office
overlooking the river!
Best mover is Tullow Oil -
and very glad I topped up recently! A decent statement today shows the company
is well on track and 400p looks a reasonable target for the shares now with a
bid thrown in for nothing.
Dragon is also going higher
- a great buy this has been - bought at 109 and now over 220! Also looking
exciting today is Gyrus as it's
about to break out into new highs and this could push the price up
substantially.
There seems to be a big buyer of
Birse around which I spotted yesterday willing to pay over the odds for
the shares and it's moving up nicely today. The sticky 14p area needs to be
broken for a good move. Nice 8% dividend anyway!
CSR has seen quite a drop
over the last two days, can't blame the profit-takers can you? But I reckon it
will move back up as fast as it dropped!
The moment of truth for Wolfson
holders tomorrow. Of course the shares could come back on profit-taking even if
figures are good. Well, I have a good 110p cushion, it would have to be a
disastrous statement for me to end up with a loss - so sticking with it!
Rotork has broken the 700p
barrier for the first time which looks bullish - think 800 is a good target now
at which point I will nearly have doubled my money. Nothing like a boring
engineer that no-one else is interested in eh?
Yesterday's buy Chesnara is
doing well, there's a 25,000 order to get through at 173 which is holding up the
price, once through there should open up 180.
Hunting is beginning to look
promising again!
Monday 30th January
I'm glad to say the sick Burns household has pretty much recovered from
its horrible sick week - the best news is that Christopher is better. It's a
delight to see him full of beans again - what a great lad!
He even went out for a ride with me on the back of my bike on Sunday and
we went for a little meal out. He charmed all the girls as always. I'm sure he
is going to be responsible for a lot of pregnancies this year...
Thank goodness the cafe is off my hands from March. There I was having a
peaceful Saturday morning when I got a call saying they were swamped with
customers and could I help?
Moaning I went down there and the place looked like a bomb had hit it.
Everyone wanted breakfast at the same time. The cook had steam coming out of her
ears. Actually that's the real reason I sold it. - it just got too successful
and therefore proved too much hassle in the end.
The good news is the new owners have offered me free coffee for old time's
sake for as long as I want - and stuff at wholesale prices!
Well, Preston coming fourth scuppered my chances of clearing over £1,000
on Celeb BB - what a surprise that was! Still, total profits came to a decent
£670 made up of these bets:
Dennis short - Profit £200
Barrymore short - Profit £120
Pete short - Loss £110
Maggot win - breakeven
Preston win - loss £280
Chantelle win - Profit £740
Total profit for this year's celeb BB = £670. Total profit on Big Brother
betting is now £6,199 - not bad! So only a few weeks to wait to make money out
of BB7!
Interesting views there - I never really try and forecast any more and just run
with the trend.
The share in question is Chesnara
(CSN). But I bought it because volumes have been steaming in recently
which often means something interesting is around the corner.
And also it's near a long-term resistance area - this means it could fall
back to 160 but the upside is a lot greater - up to 200, maybe more. So I do
believe as a life assurance company it's a low risk high reward scenario.
Anyway - whatever as they say in the states - I bought
4,000 shares at
169.95p. Target
200 stop
160. I expect a fairly quick
upwards move judging on its current form and my plan on this one is quite
short-term (for me).
I also bought one very high risk share - but one I think could double -
because it is high risk for my SIPP this one will be talked about to my e-mail
subscribers only today. For details of how to join my e-mail list just mail me.
One sale to report - that's Aminex
sold at 29 to take a small loss
of £253. A couple of reasons. The
dip below 30p and simple inertia and boredom of investors is likely to see
selling which could easily take it back to 24-26 at which point I might turn
buyer again.
Elsewhere a few quid given back today but it's hardly surprising given
last week's amazing rises and actually not that much given back!
Profit-taking in CSR today
after some massive gains. Not bothered and holding fast! Interesting to see
someone very keen to get hold of Birse
shares having to pay 14.25 to get 300,000 shares when the price was 13.75. Is
something on the cards here?
Also some tiny profit-taking in
Wolfson and Burren but
nothing much and this looks like just a breather for both shares.
Dragon Oil looks keen to bust
higher and Mouchel Parkman is
trying its hardest to conquer 300p. Otherwise a fairly quiet start to the week
which given last week's gains is no bad thing!Friday 27th January
On the laughing side what a week on the market with some gigantic gains
for the portfolio and thousands added to profits especially on my spreadbetting
account where I'm sitting on recent profits of £70,000.
Also a good week for Big Brother betting as tonight I believe the jackpot
is mine!! I really just need Chantelle/Preston to be first and second, either
order will do and I'll collect.
Closed bets so far
Short on Dennis - Profit £200
Short Barrymore - Profit £120
short Burns - Loss £110
Open Bets (to win)
£15 Maggot at 20
£10 Preston at 21
£10 Chantelle at 9
£10 Preston at 27
£10 Chantelle at 17
With the winner getting 50, second 30, third 20 and fourth 10 you can see
I am in a rather good position!! Chantelle winning makes me a profit of £740 on
the girl alone!
Have had a great start to the year. Victoria Oil and Gas has come up
trumps big time. CSR, WLF, RTD I could go on and on.
I've learnt from experience that I may need to start taking a little
profit but I really don't see a bad share in the portfolio right now. Keep up
the good work as your daily ramblings are good food for thought.'
Thanks Mark!
Pete writes: 'In my opinion
we are now about to experience a healthy cut back which could last for a number
of weeks. The biggest fallers will be the smaller cap speculative shares with
pharma, banks, utilities and commodity shares being the most defensive.
Over the fifteen years I have been trading I have seen 20% gains built up
over 6 months to a year quickly vanish as the market falls recovers but
predominantly keeps on falling. I liken it to slow bleeding (death by a thousand
cuts) rather than loosing a limb. There is something in the investors psyche
which makes it difficult to act on these signs and stem the flow.
The small investor has ultimate control of the risk he exposes him self
to, and can, and should lock in these gains. To this end I have moved 60% of my
portfolio in to cash earning 4% in an ISA or PEP wrapper, with the view of
buying the stock back later at a lower price. This is could back fire but
sitting on a 14% rise since October makes it easier to justify. Keep up the good
work.
Interesting comments, Pete and you could be right, just not today!
Big star of the day is CSR!!
Up more than 100p at time of writing which adds £4,000 to spreadbetting profits
and £5,000 to my straight holdings in one hit!Could there be more? You bet and
not in the slightest tempted to take profits.
Investors get worried when shares move up a lot and tend to either take
profits too early or try and short, second guessing the market. The long-term
trend is up - you have to follow the market not try and fight it.
It doesn't much matter that I think our economy is a mess and shares are
trading way too high - the market decides for itself and I stay with that.
There are so many big risers today it's hard to discuss them all!
Wolfson is the next biggest
bashing its way right through the 400 mark setting up 450 as the next target!
The oils going well too: Tullow,
Dragon and
Burren all going higher.
Hikma races up today -
Paragon is putting in a good
show. Victrex is reaching new
highs and a good move also by Highway
Insurance, just about getting up to target levels.
WS Atkins,
Abacus and
Rotork are among others spiking
higher! Still some buying coming into gamble
Birse but no move so far today
which is a little disappointing.
Thursday 26th January
Well, as they say you really couldn't make this up! Sadly we're still not
laughing too much at Burns Towers. We're all still feeling a bit sickly though
we're over the worst.
Poor old Christopher is still down in the dumps - I hate to see him
suffering but not much we can do. So we're all a bit low. Anyway not going to
whinge on though it's taken a bit of effort to put this update together.
Now a big thanks to those of you clever people who wrote in about my
parking ticket. (My permit had fallen off the screen). I appealed on the basis
the permit must have been there and the warden must have been on another planet.
Today I got a letter confirming... the ticket was cancelled. Those of you
wrote in telling me I'd make a mistake if I wrote in actually telling the truth
that the permit had fallen off were right.
So one in the eye for local bureaucrazy. George Galloway would be proud of
me. Which brings me to Celeb BB. Well, I'm delighted with my celeb Big Brother
betting! First I picked up a free £200 last night thanks to the obvious eviction
of Dennis - don't say I didn't tell you all this was free money!
That was a great case of taking advantage of a mistake made by the market
makers. I pointed it out at the time to those on my discussion forum so I hope a
few of you got on.
And there's plenty more loot on the way. My ideal result to make the most
cash would be Chantelle first, Preston Second and Maggott Third. That would net
me a grand total of profit for this series of about £900.
I'd still make tons with Preston first and Chantelle second. Or with
Maggot first. Barrymore coming first wouldn't be quite so great!
If you remember I backed Preston and Maggott near the start of the show
then followed up with some lumpy bets on Chantelle at a low price well before
she became favourite.
My only small loss was chickening out of a Pete Burns short. I also took
my profits on a Barrymore short. This has been my third most profitable Big
Brother betting show (the best was £1,700 profit on BB 3).
Of course I'm taking a bit for granted but right now my feeling is
Chantelle wins and Preston comes second and it's tight for third between
Barrymore and Maggott. Burns comes fifth and Traci sixth.
The two men who come out of it the worst are Galloway and Pete Burns.
Galloway's shown himself up as a little bully and Pete Burns a grotesque and
gross character who picks on people because of sheer jealousy.
Market makers were also buying off each other to fill an order so I nipped
in for another small amount and bought a further
30,000 at
13.25p. Same target and stop as
the other 13.2 buy.
This isn't much more for me than an interesting little gamble and more for
entertainment than serious investment. My main idea is to hold for a while
because now litigation is out of the way Birse would be a cheap buy for a bigger
company with 16-17p a likely takeout price - this is all pure speculation on my
part and indeed could easily be cobblers.
After some pretty decent rises for the portfolio it's a pretty quiet day
and not much to report which is fine as I'm not exactly feeling on top of the
world.
Wolfson looks interesting
again as it tries to get over that tough nut to crack 400 - a good break though
will see some bigger rises.
Shanks looks to have broken
up though 170 which was crucial and that should set up a move to 180.
Paragon's hanging onto
yesterday's big gains. And MTL
Instruments is sitting pretty on recent gains too.
Abacus is building on good
rises and is now sitting comfortably over 150 setting up 180 in time.
Centaur takes a breather before I
reckon a move up to 120.
Fletcher King rises after
its recent reasonable if not exciting statement. The oils are quiet today but
with big gains behind them this week that's just fine! Also despite my illness,
shareswise, what a cracker of a year!Wednesday 25rd January
We could hardly move either. It must be the first day in years I haven't
even had the energy to turn on the computer. Today we're all a little better but
still a bit poorly. So I'm sure you'll excuse me if this is a bit of a shorter
update than normal.
Obviously I've had no chance to reply to e-mails or check on seminar
bookings - but I do hope this virus is on the way out and I'll be back in the
land of the living shortly and replying to you all and confirming the seminar
bookings. Hopefully tomorrow.
I don't have the energy to put together a mailbag either. All I've managed
to eat in two days is a couple of crackers and cheese. Poor Christopher is as
sick as we are and all the energy we have left is spent on making sure he's ok.
Paragon in particular has
stormed up today up more than 30p. Hikma
seemed to have a gigantic rise yesterday, looks like a good trading statement
there. Chip stocks CSR and
Wolfson have continued their
decent rises.
I've now doubled my money on
Dragon Oil - both on a normal share buy and a spread bet. The spread bet
alone is up £7,500. But there is more to come here and I'm staying put.
The other oils Burren and
Tullow are going very well,
breaking into new highs. Everything else is going pretty well with many shares
in the portfolio set to break up again, given a fair stock market wind. I'll be
back tomorrow with more when I am more 'with it'. Monday 23rd January
Good time to think about an exit strategy from your job if you're bored
with it. Get some new income streams going. Try and make some private money out
of your job if you can!
Tell you what I found depressing - the Sunday papers. Haven't they all
gone downhill? Even a couple of years ago I couldn't wait to read the business
and money pages. Now they are extremely dull and not worth reading anymore.
Maybe financial journalists have got even lazier that they were already -
churning out the same old crap - I should know, I was one!
The rest of the papers aren't much cop either - no wonder readership
levels are going downhill. I think I'll just stop buying the Sundays and finish
the Saturday papers on Sunday which seem a bit better.
We're supposed to be getting a cold blast from Russia soon!
Elizabeth's sister is visiting Poland and it's minus 24 centigrade out there...
chuck some water out of the window and it turns to ice before it hits the
ground...
Isn't time they chucked this stupid ID card business? Bloody waste of time
and money and if it's supposed to stop terrorism it won't.
All it does is gives us more irritating documents to fill out and give the
authorities more power over us. I'm sure many are rubbing their hands with joy
ready to forge them, nice black market coming up in that.
The spread firm market makers are pretty good. But just occasionally they
make a mistake and luckily for me they made (I think) a boob in the Big Brother
betting just after nominations on Sunday lunchtime which should earn me £200!
How so? Well, it's a double eviction on Wednesday so two are to go.
Chantelle, George and Dennis were nominated. So unless hot fave Chantelle does
something crazy, it's 98% likely that George and Dennis will be out.
Therefore on the sporting BB spreadbetting George should have been on
about 0 points and Dennis about 3 as there is a slim chance he might get one
over on Chantelle..
Therefore the correct price to sell George and Dennis should be close to 0
and 3. And on Sunday afternoon just after the nominations were announced George
was indeed close to 0 BUT Dennis was being quoted at 8-11!
That quote of 8-11 should have been 3-6. I got on the net in double fast
time to sell for £25 at 8 to secure £200. They realised their mistake in about
30 minutes and dropped the spread to 4-6.
I suppose I could have my comeuppance though. Could it be people will be
too apathetic to vote out Dennis and Chantelle could come out by default? We'll
see - I suppose I'm tempted to lock away a little of that Chantelle profit....
Do you think this is the usual journalist waffle to fill space, or there's more
to it ?
I'll never use charts again ! I'm still licking my wounds from Friday's
Dow's meltdown, as you might know, I'm partial to the odd index flutter, and I
was watching the chart movements as it dropped a 100 points in a few hours,
seeing the perfect oscillating down trend to a double bottom.
Well, as you know I believe most broker comments are bollocks. I would
have sold the whole portfolio weeks ago if I'd taken any notice. As to indexes
it's just gambling, not investing and I prefer to leave well alone!
Alex writes: 'Agree with you
about the flat tax- My brother works in Hong Kong as an accountant and he says
that there is no plausible reason why it could not be done here except it might
put a lot of paper pushers out of business ( no bad thing ) They pay a great
deal less tax and there is incentive to work instead of handing it all over to
the wretched government.'
Anyhow it's actually ended up a pretty good day which is a bit of a
surprise with some of my shares actually up! Both chip stocks
CSR and
Wolfson are going higher which is
nice to see on such a red day.
MTL Instruments (one I've
been very patient with) is starting to rocket and is up 5p today with 450
looking a likely target soonish.
Also on the way up the delightful
Highway Insurance which is a nice low risk hold in troubled times. And in
blue too is recent buy Centaur -
it was reported on Friday an institution had bought a shedload of shares so that
helps to explain some of the big rise.
And... still more going higher!
Dragon Oil goes up as does Hikma
and Rotork. Some others are only
down slightly and in fact I have no horrors to report! Friday's buy
Abacus stays about level which is
good going given the recent rises. Still think 180 is likely.
Fletcher King's recent fall
is explained today - a big holder took profits and sold some but is still
sitting on loads. Will be interesting to see the forthcoming statement! Well, as
I said a Tea and Toast day!Friday 20th January
Well celeb BB is really turning out to be amazing. It shows how our pack
animal instinct comes out. The weakest animals get attacked (Traci) and the
younger members of the pack defer to the elders and the strongest even though
they may not approve of the attacks (Preston and Chantelle).
A lot of bullying too. This of course is echoed in offices across the land
and I'm glad I'm not in one of those hellholes any more.
The only threat to picking up a massive cheque from Sporting Index from my
win bets on Chantelle and Preston is now Pete Burns. The guy is a monster in my
opinion but he's coming up fast on the rails. Thank goodness I closed that
stupid short.
George is slowly realising he made a big cock up by going in. Michael
Barrymore is a pitiful figure though don't feel too sorry for him - he is
getting £150k for doing it!
Hi Gordon - I disagree! I don't think George has a hope and most of the voters
are young ladies!
Ben writes:' Almost
finished your book. What an interesting and entertaining read! Wish had come
across your book 10 years ago. Would have saved me a lot of money! Still, it's
never too late to start again.'
As to Dave's comment about John Urbanek, couldn't agree more! What a
disaster. Wrote a letter to John at the time conveying my commiserations. Don't
know whether he ever received it or by that time even cared about it.
As to Johnny's comments about George Galloway. Liked his description of
him, right up my street. Sums up my position perfectly.
As to BB, fascinated by your spreadbetting, but how can anyone watch such
crap! You must have the patients of a saint.
As to your comments about taxes. The British must be the most tolerant
people on earth! How about the iniquity of the Council Tax! For the past five
years the annual increases have been a disgrace, every time massively above the
inflation rate.
Thanks Ben
Ben I couldn't agree more with your views on the council tax, it is a
disgrace, my poor mum can't afford it anymore. As for BB it IS crap but I look
on it as a money making business!Well, hope you can start again and make money,
it is possible....
Dave writes with some
advice for Sue, a reader who wants to start trading:' Hi Sue, If you are looking
for advice may I offer one or two words.
And that winner was...
Abacus Group (ABU) and I bought
6,000 shares at
146.38p even though the shares
were already up 6p today and also gained yesterday.
Many investors would go: 'ooh, but it's already gone up a lot.' Fine by me
as I think it's going to go up another awful lot! Target price is
180p, stop
120p.
There are several reasons for the buy of this one and it ticks most of my
boxes. Abacus is really going for it and has just bought Deltron in a very
good-looking deal and with the deal completed a massive stock overhang has been
cleared.
The disappearance of the overhang means the stock is cleared for takeoff
and in fact has already taken off but there is plenty more to come.
There is also some massive buying coming in - one buy of 400,000 shares
already today. I've also taken out a spreadbet position for a sizable sum. This
one looks like a winning share to me.
What can I say about the current portfolio except WOW!!! It
just carries on going up and I've added another few thousand today - quite a bit
of that comes from an enormous long spread position I've got on
Gyrus which is really going for
it today - a huge breakout signals even more loot is coming my way.
Also bringing home the bacon (or the tofu if you're vegetarian) (know
which I prefer wrapped inside white toast with ketchup) is my buy of just a few
days ago Centaur, I'm already up
10% and my quick 20% target looks easily in sight with another good rise today.
Also contributing towards profits (and no doubt even more expensive
additions to the new apartment) are
Dragon Oil and Tullow
Oil, both really breaking out.
This year is going to be another good one for these companies though I
suspect neither will be around by the end of this year as they will be bid for.
Paragon and
Highway Insurance also
contributing well today. Only two slight disappointments in
Harvey Nash and
Fletcher but both could easily
come back and rise fast.
MTL
Instruments is moving rather nicely and when it moves it can really move
and it looks like it's about shift quite a bit higher in the next few days!Thursday 18th January
Hopefully those of you who mailed me with your concerns won't mind if I
don't mail you back now we're back up and running. Please take this as a thank
you for your concern! Sometimes things go wrong. So let me start with my
beginning ramble from yesterday which you missed which was the following:
In fact the first thing I did when I heard the market was going to open a
lot lower....? Have a guess? That's right - loads of tea and toast and read The
Sun! (That story about a kidnapping plot on Blair's son is obviously cobblers
right?)
I didn't even bother turning on the computer till 9am. Everything always
opens much lower on days like this and I'd rather not see the mess. There's
always an early selling scramble usually followed later on by a buying scramble.
I'd rather not scramble.
Talking of guzzling toast I bought white bread for a change - and it's
yummy!! So out with the healthy stuff, in with the tasty unhealthy toast!! Look,
I ran four miles on the treadmill before lunch so I can afford it!
Newer investors must take note of days like this though - making money on
the markets is fraught with dangerous corners and you have to learn though
experience.
OK, so that was yesterday's stuff.. now moving onto the last few hours
and.....Oh dear, we're having a bad time of it at the moment! The last few hours
have been a disaster but I suppose these things happen..
Christopher just kept waking up and crying - a combination of a blocked
nose, teething and earache we think. So it got to 11pm and we decided to take
him to the hospital in case it was something serious.
Of course as these things happen the moment we arrived he became his
normal self, charging around charming all those around him and getting 'isn't he
cute' comments.
Anyway we ended up not getting home till 2am - the prognosis was there
wasn't much wrong and he just had to keeping giving him paracetamol. But
overnight again he couldn't sleep which meant neither could we.
Things got worse when at 7.30am the cafe phoned to say the manager hadn't
turned up which meant I had to get up and start serving! She'd overslept. As you
can imagine right now I am feeling very fragile!
A quick Big Bro update - I've closed out both shorts. Michael Barrymore to
bag a profit of £110 and Pete
Burns to bag a loss of £100!
Barrymore to be on the safe side and Burns because as soon as Faria was ejected
I realised I'd made a bad call and rushed to close out.
As I got to the computer the spread firm had realised as I did Burns was
now likely to be in the front four now and they'd raised the spread quite a lot
resulting in my loss.
However this is tempered by the fact I'm confident Chantelle or Preston
will win which will still leave me with profits of over £500 on Celeb BB.
'Hope you will not mind my emailing you. I am a novice to trading. So far,
I have just been observing and researching online, I have not yet placed a
trade. When I do, I will of course start with a virtual account (no real money).
What I wanted to say is that I don't really know where to start!
I have read quite a bit on TA, not so much about fundamentals although I
am familiar with what you have to research, but don't know where to go to gather
such info.
I have been to Larry Swing's and Ken Butler's web sites. However, both
want you to subscribe to their systems (a monthly fee). I was going to purchase
Alexander Davidson's 'How To Win In A Volatile Stock Market' and possibly one or
two of his other books. It's all so confusing, I
really don't know which path to follow as each author has different views and
trading methods.
Do you think joining Larry Swing or Ken Butler's system would be a better
way to go? The only thing I have though about with taking this route is that you
will probably never really learn the markets and develop your own trading style
of your own. You just wait for their alerts and place the trades.
There are so many books I have come across on the subject - all
recommended (including yours) and I am now uncertain which to purchase.
Are you able to point me in the right direction Robbie? I don't mind if
you say your book would be best, but I would like to have your view on
Davidson's books if you have read them.'
Thanks Sue - now anyone like to make a reply? I think Davidson's books are
pretty good (click books button above then type in 'Davidson' into the author
search. I have no idea about Larry and Ken!!!
Pretty much everything I have that fell yesterday came right back in the
late afternoon and many are now up today.It goes to show one should never panic
and sell up early after the market makers have marked everything down.
Very pleased with CSR and
Wolfson which have both recovered
superbly to be now standing higher! The only ones not to show recovery are
Dignity (not sure why?) and
Fletcher King. However Fletcher
did have a big run so not surprising to see profit-taking. A statement due
shortly will send the shares one way or the other (hopefully much higher).
A bit disappointing to see Tullow
fall back below 300p again but I don't think it'll be long before it mounts
another challenge. Burren is
consolidating well at higher levels.
Dragon looks good today as
it attempts to break out into new highs. The break over 400p by
Gyrus looks strong. Three of my
favourites look set for some new gains:
Hikma has dipped under 400p
but I don't think that'll last long.
Aminex looks like it's about to break out to the 34p level.
The only real recent disappointment is recovery play
Harvey Nash - I was sitting on
20% profits but that's nearly all gone. However I reckon it should bounce from
this level - if it doesn't I should be able to get out with balls intact! So all
in all a pretty good week bar the problems with Christopher...
Tuesday 17th January
You have to laugh at the England manager getting caught out by the
'sheikh' scam. Surely by now you must know if you are famous and get asked to
meet a 'sheikh' you should be smelling a rat. At the very least have a good pull
at the beard and see if it comes off....
Weirdest story of the day? A woman decides to pay a hitman to kill her
because she's depressed and hands over £20k.
When inevitably he doesn't turn up to kill her, she sues him for breaking the
contract. Yes, honestly it's going to be a real court case!
The older members of Big Brother continue to struggle. Really once you're
over 40 doing the show is very difficult I would imagine. I'm still confident my
bets to win on Chantelle and Preston will pay off handsomely!
I added a short on Pete Burns yesterday for £20 at 6. I reckon this is
just giving away £120 - he is very unlikely to be in the top 5 as he's a love
him or hate him figure and I am in the latter camp though his Spin Me Round
disco track is brilliant and will no doubt go to number one again deservedly.
The bookies seem to think he is safe from eviction tomorrow and Alam will
go but I think the vote may surprise and Burns will be turfed out and I'll get
my quick £120!
The buy is Centaur (CAU) -
I bought 6,500 shares yesterday
afternoon at 101p. This company
has a bit of a niche position in the specialist business publishing and
information and whatever it's doing seems to be going very nicely indeed.
The latest trading statement made a few days ago looked solid - profits
and dividends growing nicely. It's not the kind of share that's suddenly going
to double but it is a great share to tuck away in a portfolio for a while for
good solid growth and sleep at night!
I had to part with one share to get the cash to buy Centaur - a tough call
as I like all the shares in the portfolio but in the end I decided to quit
Carrs and sold at
520 for a profit of
£377.
To quote the premium ADVFN BB it still is a great company with a great
chart but I felt short-term it was the one likely not to grow as much as the
others. I'm sure I'll be back in soon enough.
Tullow has found a spot or
two of oil. Lovely share this - just a matter of holding through the ups and
downs and wait for the inevitable bid.
Good old Burren continues
to climb and is trying to conquer 1100 on the way to 1300! Oil gamble
Aminex shows a spark of life
today and Fletcher King holds
after a nice rise yesterday.
CSR carries on with its
amazing run - much more to come. Gyrus
is really motoring now and this looks like being a huge winner this year,
tempted to top up. Victrex has
been a star since I bought recently!
Fletcher King is moving up
again, looks like a corker this one with another 10-15p on the cards - be
interesting to see the upcoming trading statement. And my recent high risk SIPP
buy is storming up - e-mail subscribers can read all about that...
Monday 16th January
Well, my Big Brother betting looks like it may pay off bigtime this year -
Chantelle, Preston and Maggot are clear 1 2 and 3rd favourites and if they
finish in that order I am going to win close to £1,000! With the older
participants all bitter and twisted to say the least these three lovely
youngsters deserve to win.
They teach us older people a lesson: do NOT get bitter and twisted, stay
young and learn with age, not become arrogant and childish! So, come on
Chantelle, Preston and Maggot and down with the others!
The only fly in the ointment could be that Rula either chooses two to be
nominated or in fact gets the power to evict one of them and it's possible she
could go for one of the youngsters but let's hope she gets rid of the vain
gutter mouth that is Pete Burns.
I've bought a spreadbet long for
£30 a point on Tullow (equivalent to 3,000 shares) at
292p. This tops up on my buy late
last year at a nice looking 225p! Target
330 stop 265.
There is a lot to like about this share but two main reasons for buying
again now. First it's approaching 300p - and like all round numbers while it may
take time to go through, once through I can see it rocketing.
And secondly Tullow looks a prime candidate for a takeover this year and I
think it's just a matter of time and patience - the same thing happened with
Paladin Resources last year.
**I wrote the above much earlier this morning and Tullow has just crashed
through the 300!
The portfolio is simply soaring today! Big star of today is
Fletcher King (FLK) up more than
10% with I believe way more to come - it's now 65p and I expect a rise to around
the 80p level - in fact I am tempted to buy some more though I am being cautious
as it is a bit illiquid.
Commercial property should continue to be hot this year and a statement is
due in the next few days - if it's good, this share could rise bigtime and
quickly like it has today and my buy at 53p is starting to look rather good! A
nice-looking share!
Plenty more stars today - Burren
Energy up nearly 5% on news of acquisitions in Yemen and Oman. Originally
I bought these at 239p and now nearly 1100p - what can I say? There is no
stopping Burren. My target of 1000 has been easily reached now and my next
target is 1300.
A nice rise from Gyrus
today - the profits really coming in on this one now - an excellent statement
from the company today should see the shares climb over 400p. 500 would be my
target for year end.
Also performing well today are
Dragon Oil (confirming a bottom at 200p at the moment) and
Shanks - there are rumours of an
upcoming bid on this one. One of last week's buys
Victrex has stormed up 20p -
looks like there is no stopping this one!
And what can I say about my chip stocks
CSR and
Wolfson? Wolfson is pressing to
get through the 400 mark - 600 looks on the cards by year end. And CSR is trying
to conquer 1100 and should have no trouble going onwards and upwards to 1300.
Brammer and
Hikma both look like they are
about to move higher and Highway
Insurance could shift right up to 75 if 70 can be broken. As you can
imagine I am rather pleased with the way things are going!!
Thursday 12th January
If used properly a new Parking meter from Canada could be a first step in
the right direction if it is used properly. The meter does away with parking
wardens as it takes a pic of your car once you have overstayed the limit and
fines you via the post.
That's good and fair - but the main thing buried in the small print is:
you can pay by mobile phone AND - and get this - THE METER IS ABLE TO CALL YOUR
MOBILE TO TELL YOU YOU ARE ABOUT TO GET FINED!
Now that IS progress. This changes things from parking being an oppressive
anti people thing to a much more caring attitude. Absolutely - why not tell you
if you are about to run into a fine?
But do you think the government/ councils will sanction that part of the
technology? You must be joking! That will be swept under the carpet because it
would hit revenues which is what all the parking restrictions are really about.
Parking fines should only ever be given out as a last resort - not as a
'let's fine as many people as we can' policy as now which oppresses us all.
It's the same talking generally. It's time to remove red tape, and
especially to go for a sensible flat tax so we all know what we are really
paying which in my case I reckon is about 70%!
Moving now to celeb BB, and do you get the feeling Barrymore and Galloway
are bullies? Leave the two young girls alone to enjoy a laugh and a bit of
booze.
Barrymore would be more sensible to give up the front of camera and go
into the background perhaps as a producer. His act is ridiculously dated with
ancient old jokes - I mean, an impression of Frank Spencer! At the age of 55 he
ought to have learned some sense. The poor man is so desperately needy.
Anyway the betting appears to be going my way! Chantelle is now vying with
Preston for favouritism and it looks to me like the winner will come from one of
them which will make me more than £700! For the moment I shall leave my bets as
they are (buys on Preston, Chantelle and Maggot and short on Barrymore).
For the moment there's not much value around in the betting though
Chantelle probably is still a bit of value at 25. Traci might be a bit of value
too as she's been decent throughout.
Just a few points/queries: (1) I notice that you hardly ever trade FTSE
100 stocks-any particular reason? (2) I notice that you don't seem to use CFD's
-again any reason? (3) I notice also that in your trading archive, you have
accumulated several losses through going short on your Spread Betting account,
(whereas the opposite has happened when you have gone long) - was this just
unfortunate timing and would you still advise going short using spreadbets
rather than, say, CFD's, when the market is falling?
Thanks Andy - I don't use CFD's yet as they are liable to CGT. I don't
often trade FTSE stocks as they are impossible to value.
Fundamentals and charts look great for this one. Obviously I wish I'd been
in at 300 but I wasn't - the breakthrough 400 looks very promising for another
quick 100. It seems to have gone unnoticed this one by many but I think it won't
be long before there is more buying.
Some huge rises for the portfolio today yet again - the pounds are flying
into my spreadbet accounts at the moment!
CSR is the star of the day
building on yesterday's gains - what a great performer this has been and I have
exposure to something like £60,000 of shares now.
My other chip stock Wolfson
also performs very well, getting ready for an attack on the 400 area.
Shanks is rising fast today after
a broker upgrade.
Yesterday's buy Victrex is
flying higher as I write, as I said before a couple of pounds on the current
price would not surprise me.
And Birse has ticked up a
bit but needs to get over 14 to get near my target price. It will be interesting
to see whether the recent volume actually meant anything or not.
Mouchel Parkman's been
looking strong and set to attack 300.
Fletcher King has been dull recently but is rising fast today. Some great
numbers from Carphone Warehouse
make it a very firm long-term hold.
Past Commentaries
Tuesday 18th November to Wendesday 11th January 2005
Wendesday 24th August to Monday 17th October
Wednesday 20th July 2005 to Tuesday 23rd August 2005
Friday 20th May 2005 to Monday 18th July 2005
Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005
Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December
Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004
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