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An interesting morning! As I mentioned
yesterday it was all hands on deck as the café ended up as an early morning pit
stop for the film crew working shooting a music video.
Well, It didn't turn out to be Britney Spears but we did do breakfast
for.. Rachael Stevens. What so you mean who is she? Come on, dudes, get with the
latest music, man.
She was in S Club 7 but now sings solo. You see, you can come here for
showbiz gossip now as well as shares gossip!
Want to know what she had? All right then, a very healthy porridge with
banana and honey. IN fact a lot of people had porridge.
Popular with the dancers and crew
were bacon and egg sandwiches which were wolfed down.
At time of writing she might be coming for lunch too. Oh, the heady world of
showbiz.
Sadly I didn't present myself very well. I had to get up at 6am which I
find difficult and put my normal gentle self in a bad mood and I ended up doing
a Gordon Ramsay on the staff.
"For f**** sake, " etc poured out of my mouth for two hours while they got
things wrong. I felt sorry for them in the end and gave them a tenner each. See?
Kind hearted. That's me.
My mood didn't improve when I
eventually got to my screen and saw an announcement from Havelock Europa. More
on that later. One trade to report - that's a sell
in my recent spread bet in Keir Group
to take some profits. I sold at 817
to bag a very quick profit of £600.
While I still think it's got a way
to go there's bound to be some profit-taking at this point and I hope to buy
back 15 points lower. That pushes my Cantor spread bet account to profits of
£20,000 sitting in there which is very nice! I need to look at this all a bit
more closely and when I'm not so tired but my initial reaction is the shares are
probably now fairly priced rather than well undervalued which is what I thought
they were before the statement. I'm holding for the moment pending a
good look at them over the weekend. Even with profits trimmed there should be
strong support in the low 120s. That means suddenly lowering the
price dramatically to get investors to sell their shares so the mm's can
replenish their stocks. I won't be parted with my Gibbs and Dandy just yet! Also going very well this week,
Rotork,
Dignity, and
Burren. So generally it's been a
very good week. So here's to another one next week. Well, I'm getting up very early
tomorrow - in fact at 6.30am. There's a music video being shot round the corner
and from 6.30am to 8am the café is going to be serving tea, bacon sandwiches and
breakfasts to 30 hungry crew members. Apparently the star of the vid is
quite famous so we'd better make sure the sarnies are good and the tea best
quality PG Tips. It couldn't be Britney could it?
Better make sure the tea isn't toxic. So it's all hands on deck including mine.
Tea anyone? Same target and stop loss as the
other buy. It may go to sleep for a while now but I don't think it'll be long
before it wakes up and motors again. The chart looks superb.
Carrs Milling looks like it's about to continue the re-rating which
should soon see it trade over 600p. Still well undervalued despite a strong run.
Thanks you all of you who wrote in
suggesting my son meant 'Google' when he said 'goo goo'. Yes, I believe that's
his tip. Sadly I refuse to follow tips even if it's from my own son so I shall
remain googless. If you want to buy Google on the
strength of my son's recommendation then be my guest. Don't blame him if it goes
wrong because remember he is just a novice! 240 seems a crucial breakout area
and I noticed 2 market makers suddenly raising their price and it was obvious to
me the others were about to do the same. But other people will pick up Burren
which will continue to rise this year. No-one is getting hold of mine and I
might buy some more if it dips further.
Christopher's first words are: 'ah - goo'. I wondered whether he was
trying to give me a share tip but there's no company called anything like ah goo. 'If you
don't mind I have a quick question about daily prices and the ways of the MM's.
Just trying to understand, just to avoid an confusion I am not a short term
trader. I can
only look at trades and prices at iii, because the company I am with blocks
streaming prices and anyway I am meant to be working. Any information helps on
the long path to knowledge !! ' Trade
analysers are pretty useless and will often put down buys as sells and vice
versa because of this. Re the
Dignity trade it's more likely the big buyer traded at the proper price and not
at mid price, it's just that we don't know when the trade was delayed from. The
share is Gibbs and Dandy (GDYO).
I bought 1,000 for the pension at 413p and two lots of 750 at 415p for the
missus ISA and another 1,000 for my pep. For the website we'll take it as the
1,000 at
413p. But
then again most of my companies aren't glamorous, they just continue making
money which keeps pushing up their share prices! Also
bullish noises coming from the company and it looks like some growth by
acquision. Even better is the finance director's buy a tidy amount recently just
before the close period as results should be out soon.
Today is apparently the most
miserable day of the year and the day when people feel the most depressed. So, I
wish you all a a really crap day. It
really is vital you have a very well thought out plan knowing exactly where to
get in and out, in other words only ever trade the indices from a purely
mechanical standpoint. Don't ever think you know which direction it is going to
move in the immediate future. I also
keep my eye on GE as an indication of direction when trading the dow as it
really does follow it with remarkable correlation.. Another down day for the markets but
amazingly many of my lot are... still going up! Joint honours today go to two of my
most recent buys, Emerald Energy
and Dignity. Both are nicely
pushing through and up through resistance points which look bullish for both.
Keir Group is nearly over the 800p mark/.. 850 should be on the way.
Get Group is showing signs of
having another stab at getting up to the 300p level.
Sondex is testing support at 200p
- as long as that holds it should resume the uptrend.
I passed my test of looking after my 8 week old son for three hours
yesterday. Mrs B rushed home from her hair appointment (looks good). We enjoyed
a good play, some sleeping and a feed (and that was just me). Then came yesterday when I decided
to set up stop losses which getting right is easier said than done. I got stopped out of everything at
quite big losses (compared with the amount of profit I'd managed to make on each
trade previously). I still felt there would be a reversal so bought again at
lower levels again to get stopped out. I set a stop loss at 1.3030 and to
my horror there was a spike up on the euro before 7am this morning and I was
out. Of course by the time I was aware of
this ( 7.40 am ) the price was back to about 1.2955 which could have been a
reasonable profit. I
was left in sole charge of Christopher for a couple of hours last night and I
did OK. I never realised how much hard work it is to feed a baby! All that
winding and crying. I
gather the most miserable day of the whole year is January 24th. Looks like it
might be worth shorting the market on that day. In the
interview I did mention your good self and my great confidence in your trading
albeit I do go on gut feel as well as tips. What a brilliant day you are having
today." I have
read about spread betting on the whether the FTSE will rise or fall. For doing a
spread bet of this type, what would be the best charting software to use and is
this type spread betting advisable for somebody new to the markets? Just
remember to ask yourself why they are trying to flog you software when they
should have made a fortune using it themselves and ought to be retired to a
sunny beach in Barbados. Keir
Group is having a great run and I think there may be another 100 points
to come, still undervalued I feel. 550p
may prove stern resistance for a while but worth holding as going through 550
will open up 600 and quite fast. It
always puts out a decent statement but also tells us of another lost contract!
Although it'll be getting bags of cash from Chelsea so there's plenty of
compensation. I must
admit to being a bit stumped with this one. I guess for the moment I'll hang on
in there especially as there seems to be big support at 100p. You
must watch the Tuesday show on BBC2 called Dragons - both me and Elizabeth find
it compulsive viewing. There's
only one word I can use to describe how my current portfolio has been doing so
far this year and that is 'WOW!' My
Cantor Index spread account is awash with cash as are my ISA's and Peps - very
roughly I've already made more than £25,000 in paper profits this year. Burren
has simply been a huge money earner for me and I've now doubled my money on my
original buy. Carrs Milling
continues to be re-rated and is springing higher. Much more to come. Now we live in the next street to
the cafe we can pretty much see all our customers going to and from their homes.
So our conversation sometimes consists of: Come on, young man, and don't mess things up in the
last few days as I like getting cheques from Sporting Index! Well, what a fantastic day on the
markets for me. The portfolio is absolutely flying yet again. It's been rising
pretty much every day this year - mid and small caps are the place to be, there
is no doubt. And even with the rises I still think most of the
shares in the portfolio are undervalued which is why I'm not taking profits. And oil exploration is a pretty good place for a
gamble. It's a gamble as a good drilling report can see shares shoot up and a
bad one, shoot down. Remember I can afford to do this so if you're
thinking of following me in, check you can afford to lose the money. It could
easily go up 20% quickly but could also do the same going down! Stop loss
150p - target 195p. The
shares could easily test 160 again but I think the chances are to the upside. So we had our first night out since
Christopher arrived. Mum, my sister and her husband came round to look after him
and we went out to see a film called Closer which was pretty good.
An excellent day on the markets today. I'm tempted by at least five shares
but I'm not quite sure the timing is right on them as I think the market might
fall back later today and tomorrow. I do expect to be buying sometime
this week. Ashtenne has recovered
some lost ground and looks good again after Friday's shake. Well, it's been a hectic week of
trading for me but I think I've made some very decent buys and sells. Time for
me to have a little rest today and just let the shares rise! Sondex
looks like it'll bounce again off the very strong bottom of 200p.
VP just needs a little push to
head up over 200p which would be a bullish sign. Our
politicians are really the pits! I watched PM's question time while running in
my treadmill (five miles run - not bad eh?) and it's a very depressing
experience. Right,
I'm nearly there with the e-mail service! On Monday those of you who've wisely
taken a Utility Warehouse discount club phone internet or mobile service from me
should get a test mail around lunchtime. If you don't get it, mail me with your
details and when/how you took out one of the services. One new buy to report and that's an
add on to my spread bet long in RPC
Group (RPC). One of my five shares for 2005 there's some huge buying
volume this morning (Several trades of 62,500 shares) and
I've decided to top up my spread bet by buying
3,000 shares at
223p. Target
260p, stop loss
202p. I think there's also a chance of a
bid for the company from someone like Smith DH - but I'm guessing there.
My baby duties included the 11pm to midnight feed last night. He was very tired.
Can you imagine if we behaved like children as adults? Of
course my original stake at 20 was better. (It's 50 for first place, 30 for
second and 20 for third).
Talking of latest moves, one new
position opened up today. That's a return to
Roxborough
Group (RXO). I've picked up
2,500 shares at
335p. Target
370p. Stop loss
325p. However I have set a tight stop loss
as technically a fall below 330p could signal a fall whatever the fundamentals
say. It looks to have bottomed nicely at
330 though and a rise from here looks more likely than a fall. But I'll keep a
sharp eye on it as sometimes one has to be wary of shares that look too good! Quite a nice profit and time it was
taken as Aminex is obviously very risky. I'd look to get back in a little lower
as there seems to be a bit of selling pressure today. Also, I try not to hold
risky ones for too long. How
ungrateful can you get? There I was, giving Christopher a good play on his
playmat when he hit me with a huge fountain of wee. He has
to get his way. But give him credit - he made a dull show a bit more
interesting. Stallone's mum is obviously nutty as a march hare which should
prove fun. A crazy day of trading yesterday,
hey what a crazy guy I am. I finished off yesterday with a little spread bet
long on Dignity (DTY). That's for
£20 a point at
327p. Target
360, stop loss
310. Looks like I should have stayed in
but I'm not proud and my spreadbet gives me some new exposure. It's the kind of
share worth holding for a long time as it should gradually just go up. It's
tiring having a young baby isn't it! Phew - I did all night Friday and I'm still
trying to recover. Yawn! Still I've been quite busy trading this morning. Thank you for your kind messages
regarding the brilliant gains recently on the portfolio. I really appreciate
them. People are all too eager to criticize over the smallest thing so it's nice
to get encouraging mail. I've decided to go for a bit of
value which I think lies with Lisa
I'Anson and I bought her for £10
at 8 with
Sporting Index. Someone is keen to get their hands
on these shares. This one has always looked unvalued to me and it was just a
matter of time. So,
what can I say about my current share buy portfolio except. wow! I'm sitting on
profits of an amazing £22,325.
These are on top of already taken profits since I started the site of £137,144 I've
had so many big dividends that like my SIPP these probably outweigh any costs.
Profits are approximate back of a fag pack calculation: First apologies for a couple of late
updates recently. Sadly my webmaster Dale's mum is in hospital and obviously she
comes first for the moment. So if an update is late or delayed, please bear with
us for the moment. I wish Dale's mum a speedy recovery and I'm sure you all do
too. It failed to get over 600 so it
looks as if it'll attempt to go lower again. But if it breaks through 600p I
would be out in a jiffy. The statement was OK, shame they got
hit by a fire at one of their warehouses. It was marked down earlier but now
it's coming back. Looks worth hanging onto. So, happy new year all ! I hope all
of you make tons of money this year and however you intend to do it, good luck!
I'm going to carry on where I left last year and keep investing in smaller
growth companies. So I've kicked off the new year with
a new trade, and I've returned to one that made me money last year,
Ashtenne Holdings. I've bought
2,000 shares in
Ashtenne (AHH) at
440p. Target
490p, stop loss
420p. The portfolio continues to rise yet
again and it's a good start to the year.
Burren Energy is breaking out - it got to 480p last time before it
stalled and this time it ought to break through onwards and upwards through
500p.
Well, my first real family Xmas.
Actually just me, Christopher and Elizabeth. My mum and sister came down for a
couple of hours too. It was early to bed, we have to go
to bed the same time as Christopher you know. Maybe "early to bed early to rise"
is going to suit me. Time to recharge the batteries and
come back fighting and hoping those nasty market-makers haven't got a hangover
and start marking down my shares. Some good buying coming into
Harvey Nash Group - this one is
likely to spike higher any moment.
Havelock Europa seems about to really break up.
Havelock Europa put out
what I can only describe as an annoying statement because it was all a bit vague
with hardly any figures mentioned - just talk of contracts taking longer to play
out.
Teather and Greenwood the broker re-iterated a buy in the share though
while reducing forecasts a bit.
My two recruitment sector stocks
Northern Recruitment and Harvey
Nash are shooting up. Northern reports on Monday so fingers are crossed
here! The figures should be good but I just hope good enough to sustain the
recent hike in the share price.
Gibbs and Dandy continues
its good run and there's very little selling pressure. The market makers look
short of stock so I would not be surprised to see a tree-shake.
Emerald Energy is breaking
out nicely and the chart pattern looks bullish at the moment.
Sondex is showing signs of some
upward pressure.
Thursday 28th January 2005
I know I keep saying this but.. Another fabulous day on the markets for
me. What an amazing year this has been so far.
I decided to pick up another 1,000
shares in Gibbs and Dandy (GDYO)
at 437 to add to my buy the other
day at 413.
Most investors can't bring themselves to buy more of a share they've
already bought at at a cheaper price but I'm not one of them!
I'd far rather average up than down! As I think Gibbs is going to 500p I
have no qualms about adding some more even if I have to pay a bit more.
Star award of the day to Northern
Recruitment. I ignored the recent tree shake partly inspired by some
rubbish tipster who put out sell "advice" . Shares are storming higher today
ahead of what should be sparkling results on Monday.
Keir Group as I suspected
it would has risen dramatically straight through 800p and onwards and upwards.
Burren has quite rightly
shrugged off the placing and resumed its natural course upwards. I think there's
a chance it could double in value this year given continued good drilling
reports.
Rotork is having a good
run, now attempting to break 450 which would open up 500p. Other risers for me
today include Dignity,
Sondex and
RPC.
Wendesday 26th January 2005
Oh goodness my heart melts when he smiles and talks to me.. what a
feeling! We both enjoyed bathtime last night when he seemed to be trying the
backstroke.....
So to the markets.
I made a spread bet buy, actually only a few minutes after updating the
site yesterday - and that was in Hitachi
Credit. (HCU). I went for a £25
buy at 242p. Target
280, stop loss
220.
The reason I went for a spread bet and not a cash buy is this. This share
has been on my screen for many weeks and I've been waiting to buy.
If I'd tried to buy in the cash market by the time I could get there the
price may have risen too quickly for me to get in.
However a quick call to Cantor and I got a quote in ten seconds. I was
right - the price moved up fast by 5p but I got a better price spread betting
because of the ability to get a fast quote.
Yesterday's buy Gibbs and Dandy
looked well timed as there was a huge buy in the afternoon I would guess from an
institution. I think Gibbs looks an excellent play and I reckon 500p will be
reached quite easily.
Sondex is back up after
testing 200. It shows you not to get hustled out of good shares by market maker
inspired drops. Often they are just after getting your shares on the cheap.
Keir Group is testing 800
and it doesn't look long before it'll be over it. And
Admiral is going great guns.
RPC and
Emerald are continuing their
journeys higher too - so all in all a good day.Tuesday 25th January 2005
I also tried the code 'ago' but nothing there either. Still, I guess it's
too early for him to be interested in shares.
The only problem is now I'm spending most of my days saying 'ah goo'
myself and communicating with adults is beginning to be quite difficult. What? I
have to talk to you? Give me a break, let's all just say ah goo and there'll be
no war.
Joe writes with this:
I'm guessing that the trader for 46,000 shares of Dignity shares was a
delayed report as it was more that the NMS and done at mid-price.
Because of the share price movement up I assume that it was a buy. Does
this mean that large trades can be purchased at a price that undercuts the
average Joe Bloggs on the street.
Hi Joe, this is a subject I cover a lot. You need to look for a 'T' by any
trade. If you see it, it means the trade has been delayed and could have been
delayed for a long time.
Basically if you see big trades turn up and the price is going up they
will be buys and if the price is sinking they are likely to be sells!
Stock market historian David
Schwartz passes his wisdom to me today so I thought I'd pass this on to
all of you.. he says:
'There is a lot of doom and gloom in the market right now. News headlines
are causing investors to grow increasingly pessimistic about the future. As far
as the next two weeks are concerned, history says relax - there is no cause to
worry.
History teaches the UK stock market often rises as the end of the month
approaches, especially during bull markets.
Since 1966, there were 30 occasions when a bull market was running at this
point on the calendar. Shares rose January 25 to February 2 in 28 of those
years, a 93% success rate.'
Thanks David.
To the markets and one buy today. I've been waiting to buy this for a few
days but I wanted to confirm it was definitely over the 400p barrier.
There may be a couple of hidden trades though as the buying price went up
from 410 to 413 all of a sudden which kind of forced my hand.
Gibbs is hardly an exciting company after all builders merchants is not
really the most riveting thing that comes to mind.
So why do I like it? Oh, just the usual boring things.. increased
earnings, profits, earning per share, low market cap compared to profits.
My plan is to tuck them away for a while, ignore any likely volatility and
hope to take profits at around 500p for 20%. Target
500p, stop loss
400p.
One sell - I took profits of £656
by selling Premier Foods at
285.5. I still like it as you
know I'm a fan of Ambrosia Creamed Rice, but it's had a good run and it may
retreat a bit so I'd buy back on a dip (especially a strawberry jam dip).
What else is going on? Burren
is dipping as nervous investors bail out ahead of a statement tomorrow - I'll
take the risk and stay in.
Other than that it's fairly quiet - a few up a little a few down a little,
that's the way it goes sometimes. I did notice one large buy in
Get Group which looks promising
though.Monday 24th January 2005
Talking of crap how the hell did bozo Bez win celeb BB? He cost me a
fortune. I would have made £420 if Kensie had won, in the end all I got was a
miserable £80 profit. So thanks Bez. Oh well, now he's out I'm sure his local
ganga dealers will all be extremely happy today!
It's amazing how we Brits always vote out the most intelligent and
interesting people and vote for the idiots to win. Bizarre.
Someone sent me a copy of a tipping e-mail over the weekend, tipping a
share, get this with a spread of.. 15%!! Yup, the spread is 45-52!
How can any tipster with any conscience can recommend people to buy a
share with this kind of spread?
Trouble is of course the tipster doesn't care. The reason he tipped it? He
can use mid -price! Ie, he can say I tipped the share at 48.5p.
Say it 'goes up' 4. (And it only goes up because the punters have bought
in). It becomes 49-56 The mid price becomes 52.5.
The tipster can now claim a 'Profit' of nearly ten per cent! The reality?
Mug punter bought at 52, but the sell price is 49. The punter is really in a
loss of more than 6%.
So what I'm saying is beware of the tipsters' stats. They may look amazing
but don't believe everything you read. And don't be fooled into buying these
silly shares. A spread of more than 5%? Forget about it!
I love the cold sunny days! It's great for business as everyone wants
coffee and comfort food. I got an offer for the cafe over the weekend but I've
turned the offer down. The profits are still going up so I think I'd be foolish
to sell up now.
I was up from 9pm-2am last night looking after my son. He slept on me for
four hours - I did not dare move off the sofa as it took ages to get him to
sleep. I then gave him his feed at 1.30am - so I am knackered today!
Now the mailbag. Here's Frank
with comments on the recent topic of indicies trading.
'Trading the FTSE or DOW can be very volatile and soon take away your
money if you don't know what your are doing. I often play one or the other and
just as often win or loose.
I would say I agree with your comments about newbie traders getting
involved too soon and that they should develop their own style with the less
volatile and more predictable instruments, where conservation of their capital
is more controllable, after all boring can often be profitable.
However the indices can reap swift rewards, especially compared with a
great number of UK equities, and liquidity is never a problem, but remember to
give them far more room than normal which requires the trade size to be reduced
accordingly.
One site that provides free technical appraisal of the DOW on a daily
basis is www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp coupled with their rules
for trading it which some of your readers may find helpful.
Obviously trading the indices have advantages and disadvantages, one
advantage I really like is that the spread always remains the same throughout
the trade, at least when I am spreadbetting.'
A few tempting shares out there right now. Just waiting a little before
buying as the market looks a bit weak at the moment. I would prefer to buy
shares at the right time rather than jumping in too quickly.
Friday 21st January 2005
Now remember the mail I got from Gary yesterday - a new investor who asked
whether it was a good idea to start trading the FTSE 100 - I said an emphatic
"no" - so here's a great reply from reader
Vanessa:
"I read your diary today with amusement mainly because of the email from Gary.
Coincidentally, I decided to have a ' punt ' (cos basically that's what it is)
on the indices, for the first time, over the last week or so. The results are
NOT GOOD !!
The first few days started out fine helped by big intra day reversals on
the Dow and I scraped out of some hairy positions with profits of about £150
each day. I knew this was pure luck.
If this wasn't bad enough I'd also had a bet on the euro dollar as I felt
( correctly ) that the dollar would gain .
So it's a very difficult game on which you can lose even if you are right.
Judging where to place a stop is very hard but vital particularly on the Dow
which has no problem swinging 100+ points in a day.
I have 5 years of trading behind me & now earn a good income from it and
felt I could nibble at the indices for a bit of variety ( read sleepless nights
!! ) . It's bloody hard. Your advice to Gary is spot on.
Thanks Vanessa. I think you're especially right about sleepless nights.
Also, you pretty much have to spend your whole day by a screen and I didn't
leave the rat race to do that! Any other views welcome!
Onto the markets and a quiet end to what's been a spectacular seven days
for the portfolio. A little bit of calm and peace is just fine - my lot seem to
be holding their gains which is as much as I can expect today.
Burren now looks the most
exciting prospect though much depends on a close above 480 today. If it can
start to make new highs we should see new investors coming on board and lifting
the price above 500p for the first time.
Umbro looks on the verge of
a breakout again and seems strong after yesterday's trading statement with
buyers returning.
Isotron is not surprisingly
getting a few profit-takers after recent big risers. I'm in here for much longer
and I expect Isotron to surge higher again after profit-taking is over.
Rotork is looking good with
huge buying recently and RPC is
on the verge of major gains. Keir Group
made huge gains yesterday and a break over 800 will open up 840 fast and thus my
target.
Telecom Plus is recovering
very well from recent lows. News that it's won the licence to deliver cheap
phone calls AND the line rental too is helping the price. Thursday 20th January 2005
Still, there's no better feeling when you've done it and he's gone to
sleep! I have to say I love the little fellow whatever he does and I miss him if
I haven't seen him for a couple of hours.
This is where I'm so glad I'm not a nine to fiver and have to be in a
dismal office somewhere. (I used to have to sit in one in the pits of a London
suburb a bit like the one in the TV show "The Office". Quite vile.)
My escape from office life means I can enjoy spending a lot of time with
him. So thanks, Telecom Plus in part for rescuing me!
This from Betty:
"If, by any chance, you are an Independent reader (I guess that you are
not) there should be an article on David and I as 'day traders'.
Thanks Betty - I'll have to buy The Independent on Saturday to see if the
mention stays in!
Gary writes:
"Robbie, I have been reading your regular updates for a while now and
finally decided to venture into the stock market.
Gary the answer is NO! If you're new to the markets for goodness sake
don't start spread betting the FTSE.
This is just gambling. Don't be fooled by all the software gimmicks
around. Whether the FTSE goes higher or lower is simply guesswork.
And take no notice of all those ridiculous ads promising you to turn 10p
into £100k with ten minutes work a day.
Concentrate on good stock picking and forget about indices unless you get
very experienced at it at a later stage.
I keep looking at the FTSE in the morning and see it going down and expect
my stocks to be down but amazingly they are STILL rising! All that work I've
been doing to uncover undervalued stocks is paying off bigtime now.
Today's stars include Harvey Nash,
bashing on the 100p door and asking to be let through. Not much longer now!
Istron is looking exciting
- I really thought it would fall on profit taking today but it's still going up.
Dignity,
Carrs Milling and
Chieftain continue their good
climb higher. Can't work out Umbro
or whether I should bank my 10% profit.
Northern Recruitment
results are due soon and I expect a continued re-rating at least up to the 250p
area.
There's one or two shares I'm very keen on and I'm looking for the right
time to buy, possibly this afternoon, we'll see.
Wendesday 19th January 2005
Would be entrepreneurs try and pitch their ideas to five multi
millionaires who decide whether or not to back the ideas with their money.
What's amazing is the lack of preparation by some of the would be entrepreneurs.
It's also strange that many think their product is great when it's
obviously crap. Worse are the ones trying to turn a hobby into a business.
At least half don't seem to have thought out their market. If you have a
product you must ask: Who is going to buy it? Why? And how much will they pay?
I'll remind you all next week about this show which is, I guess a kind of
Pop Idol for business minds.
Talking of business my cafe is flying! Normally in January sales dip by
30% because people are in debt or generally pissed off and they simply stop
buying.
But January sales are only 7% down on pre Xmas this year and I've noticed
people are happy to spend as much in January this year as they were in the heady
rush pre Xmas.
I'm not sure whether this is being repeated all over the country but if it
is it may be worth looking at companies that specialise in cheap treats like
coffee, cakes and meals. I wonder...
Shares that I bought this year and shares I've been hanging onto for a
while are all absolutely flying higher and the amount of money I'm making is
shooting up.
The question is when to take the profits and though I like selling into
rises I'm going to carry on letting the trend be my friend!
Where to start? Isotron
continues a good climb higher as institutions climb on board. A long way to go -
I'm glad I spotted this one when it was obviously undervalued a few weeks ago.
Burren Energy has leapt
above previous very stern resistance at 480 and if it can close above 480 this
week, 530 opens up.
Yesterday's speculative buy
Emerald Energy is pushing higher nicely though the market-makers are
bound to try and tree shake as they look short.
Dart is on the way up after
yesterday's shake. Rotork is back
up well and motoring with some big buys going in. It's breaking through previous
resistance today and a big surge could happen this week.
RPC is up and testing 235p.
Also up, Telecom Plus testing
255p, Umbro, and
Havelock Europa which is on the
verge of a big breakout.
If these shares confirm their breakouts my portfolio could easily swing a
whole lot higher and I'm hanging on grimly to all these fantastic shares!
What I must avoid now is overconfidence as with all these big gains it's
human nature to get greedy. But I do not intend to overtrade and I'm simply
going to keep running with these winners.Monday 17th January 2005
'Shepherds Pie's arrived home!'
'Three shot latte's going to work a bit late today!'
'There's small cappuchino and pain au chocolat off for a game of bridge'.
Actually it's amazing how predicable people are. They always have the same
thing. Mind you a few days ago double espresso came in and asked for a latte.
He said: 'I've decided it's time to change my life.'
I get very worried about one woman who comes in - she always orders a
three shot coffee.. followed by another three shot coffee and then she tops it
off with.. another three shot coffee!
I feel like a barman and I should say: 'I think you've had enough,
love..time you went home.'
So looks like I may end up owing Kensie, lead singer of 'Blazin' Squad a
pint or two if he can pull off a win.
One new trade today. Now I always like to have one speculative gamble in
my portfolio for a bit of excitement to go along with all my slow steady risers.
So instead of Aminex which is my usual play, I've switched short term to a
small exploration company called Emerald
Energy. (EEN)
It used to be a tiny little company with no prospects but recently I've
rather liked the look of the drilling reports. Of course it's completely
speculative and I've bought into it for a complete gamble.
I've bought 3,000 at
169.3p just now - I bought on a
dip after it zoomed up to 173 earlier in the day.
So many of my lot are going up today I don't know where to start.. well,
OK Isotron is a good start - I
knew my patience would pay off and there's some big buying here in one of my
five shares to watch for 2005. Isotron could easily shift up to 600p quite fast.
Carrs Milling continues its
re-rating - I think the shares are undervalued all the way up to 650p so I'm
hanging on till the re-rating ends.
I've also been patient with Harvey
Nash and that's having a bash at the 100p level today - might take a few
pushes to get through but once through 120p here we come.
Telecom Plus is having
another stab at the 250p area and the shares could go higher if it can close a
few days over 250p.
And good old Burren
continues to supply me with excellent profits. It's heading up to the very
exciting all time high of 480p - a burst through there and that opens up 530p.
Speculative play Chieftain is
rising fast as I write.
Monday 17th January 2005
However Elizabeth spent most of the film worrying that he was OK. I had a
mobile at my side to take emergency calls - but luckily he slept right through!
We keep looking at how lovely he is and I think someone up there is saying
sorry for the death of our first - she will never be forgotten.
Also bouncing well off 200p is
Sondex as I suspected it would - remember what I keep banging home to you
all - if you've got a good un, don't panic if it goes down!
Havelock is making another
go at breaking 140p - once through this is should be a fast run up to 170p.
Some good buying coming into Umbro
- a good close above 100p looked bullish and I hope now for a run up through
previous resistance at 107p. RPC
continues its good run and some sharp rises look very likely..
Vanco is having a bash at
the 323p level. There's major resistance up in the 340p area so it'll be
interesting to see if it can get through. There's very good support at 310p. So
all in all some good rises for my lot today.Friday 14th January 2005
Yesterday's top up in RPC
proved well-timed, it now looks very strong. A little push through 230p should
see a quick rise up to around 250p. I don't see why it shouldn't send the year
at around the 300p mark.
Burren Energy is pushing
through previous resistance as I write - 480p is the next target.
Telecom Plus continues its
recovery, up again yesterday.
Strange to see the fall in
Ashtenne. But it doesn't bother me, it's a sound company and it'll
recover and head on up towards 500p.
Dignity,
Keir,
Dart and
Vanco are all heading higher and
it's proved another excellent winning week for the portfolio. Thursday 13th January 2005
The whole place is full of ghastly slippery salesmen who are as honest as
the current days are long.
Blair never apologies for the mistakes he makes. And sadly Howard is not
much of a challenge for him. In the meantime we continue to get taxed to the
hilt and services continue to deteriorate.
The recent rain has been handy. Problem is when you own a café everyone in
the local area knows you and I can't walk for two seconds without being tapped
on the arm by someone who wants a chat.
The rain means I can bung on an anorak and put a hood over my head and
walk around without being recognised. I'm wondering about buying one of those
Groucho Marks spec and beard sets to try and get around without having to do
"stop and chats"!
Germaine Greer made a right tit of herself by even appearing on celeb BB
but she did what we should all do with shares - she cut her losses quickly!
Here's hoping Kensie does the business for me - and maybe there's a chance
outsider Lisa could do ok.
As I mentioned in my five to follow article for ADVFN, this might seem
like a boring packaging company but it's a very profitable boring company and
I'd be surprised if there wasn't at least another 20% upside.
This looks like a smashing buy to me and I'm glad I took out the spread
bet in November at 203p. Others have also noticed the big buying and as I write
the shares are moving up fast.
A sparking day for the portfolio with quite a few risers.
My two most recent buys,
Roxborough and Keir Group
are both progressing very nicely with Roxborough in particular having a good day
today.
Telecom Plus,
Harvey Nash,
Burren,
Premier,
Havelock and
Admiral are all going higher
today more to come from all of those. Meanwhile shares like
Northern Recruitment and
Vanco are holding nicely at
higher levels.Wendesday 12th January 2005
My favourite share is going down. Waaaaaahhhhhhhh! The spread firm
activated my stop loss even though it only went to it for ten seconds.
Waaaahhhhhhhhh!
I bought a share just minutes before a profits warning.
Waaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
I bought a share on a breakout without realising the breakout occurred
because some dodgy tipster tipped it and I'm now trapped in by the market
makers. Waaaaaaaahhhhhhh!
I shorted a share and the next day a takeover bid was announced sending it
up 20%.Waaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!
I want a bacon sandwich but I can't have it until I've finished this
bloody update. Waaaahhhhh!
Talking of cry babies, big John is talking again in celeb BB. How
annoying, much better when he's sulking.
Germaine was right to walk she should never have gone in there. She was a
bit naive not to realise Big Brother is a bully and the house is the playground.
That's the way life is, dear.
Anyway I've added another £10
to my bet on Kensie to win at
27. Given he's almost a certainty
to be first or second this looks like a decent bet.
This company looks amazing undervalued. Profits of £22m, yet a market cap
of only £100m and a PE of only 7.
I exited my short in Bovis
yesterday afternoon at 588 to
take a £20 profit. I waited a
little bit after the good statement in case the shares went into reverse but by
early afternoon they looked quite strong. Also they could be a bid target so it
would seem to be unwise to be short.
Finally I sold my Aminex
shares at 11.6p. (Real trade
43,500 shares). For the site, this gives a profit of
£648.
Star of the day is the share I bought earlier this week,
Kier Group. Well up by 16p this
morning and plenty more to come I think. Looks like this is going to swell my
spread betting account!
Otherwise it's slightly dull out there. However most of the portfolio is
hanging onto recent very big gains - so I'm happy to see recent big risers
Northern Recruitment,
Harvey Nash,
Telecom Plus and
VP holding up well.
Dignity continues to go
well as does Premier Foods.
Admiral has seen good gains in
the last few days too, as I'm pretty happy.
Get Group has come back a
bit after strong rises. It should start a re-bounce from around these levels.
A spot of profit-taking in Vanco
today which isn't that surprising. Again, a long-term hold for me and I'll
ignore any short-term volatility.
Tuesday 11th January 2005
Right onto the newly washed jeans I'd just put on. That's on top of the
sick I had deposited on my favourite shirt.
Oh, I can't wait till he's a teenager and I can say things like: 'After
all the sacrifices I made for you...!'
I don't know why anyone's surprised that John McCririck is acting like a
baby himself. He's 65 going on 6.
Looks like my bet on Kensie may pay off, I think he'll be in the last
three at any rate. So I ought to pick up £100 at least.
You may remember I made quite a few quid on this recent market issue last
year buying at 250 and selling at 305.
Yesterday's buy Vanco flew
higher yesterday - it wouldn't be surprising to see a bit of a retrace but there
were some big buyers coming in which should bode well. Results out next month
will be very interesting. And Keir
also looks strong.
VP Group takes the star of
the day award. It's heading into breakout territory and if it can get above 200p
that would be a very bullish sign. It'll be an interesting few days.Monday 10th January 2005
So, my big bro bet on outsider Lisa doesn't look that great so far..
still, things can change. As I pointed out on Friday I was thinking of a bet on
Kensie on the basis that he
should be in the top three and I bought him for a
£10 at
20. He's moved up a little bit
since then to 24 as I write.
I have an exclusive - I have a good source and I hear Sylvester Stallone's
wife is going in to BB later today. Of course my source could be wrong - guess
we'll find out, huh?
The buy is a return to one of my favourite stocks,
Vanco. (VAN) I've bought back
this morning 2,000 shares at
311p. Target
370p, stop loss
273p.
As I mentioned when I took profits a few weeks ago I held on to quite a
few but it's time now to buy more for the website.
I've covered this company endlessly and visited them recently and I'm sure
most of you are aware of what they do and why they have such great potential so
I'm not going into it any more here.
Suffice to say the chart breakout looks significant - and at these prices
I suspect shorter Evil Knievel will have to close soon. Remember he shorted
because 'someone told him to.'
The second buy is a spread bet in
Keir (KIE) I bought for £10
at 757p. Target
820p. stop loss
710p.
Looks undervalued compared to others in the sector and the fundamentals
look bullish as well as the chart. £10 is the equivalent of buying 1,000 shares
for a spreadbet.
One sell - that's my shares in
Hunting sold at 180.15p to
take a small loss of £194. I've
sold simply because the shares have been disappointing and there's not enough
interest to drive them up for the time being. I still like the look of the
company but for now I'd rather invest in stock that moves faster.
Telecom Plus continues its
good-looking recovery. Burren
looks strong and ready for another assault on the 480p level.
Get is being mucked around
by Winterfloods which is the main market maker in the market. The breakout is
still well intact and I'm hanging onto my shares
Elsewhere it's rather quiet today though the portfolio is hanging on to
the big gains made last week.
Friday 7th January 2005
I see celebrity big brother is back with us. Funny to see John McCririck
in there - I hired him to be the MC at my wedding which was held on a race day
at Kempton Park. He cost me £1,500 (in cash!) but actually he was pretty good
value.
He's kind of got one kind of stick.. feminism is rubbish and women should
be in their place etc, but in reality his wife wears the trousers and it was she
who demanded the cash from me!
He also, away from the cameras, seems kind of quiet and shy! It's all an
act - good luck to him but he'll probably be one of the first out.
It's difficult to weigh up the betting. Edwards does look like a good
favourite but not much value. Sporting Index have spreads open. It's 50 points
for first, then 30, 20 10 and 5. Edwards is fave at 26-9 then it's Bez at 25-8.
Admiral is proving
admirable and Premier is proving
it's. er.. premier. Did that sentence work?
Carrs Milling is hanging on
to its great gains from yesterday, much more to come here. And so is
Aminex.
Isotron looks like it's about to
push up higher.
Northern Recruitment is
going for it and looks easily set for a rise to 250p and possibly further. A
great undervalued company.
Umbro has regained the 100p
level which looks bullish now. A statement is due soon which I think will lift
it back towards a more realistic 120p. I'm going to do a lot of research this
weekend and hope to come up with a good buy next week.Thursday 6th January
Here's how it stands.. prices are real sell prices - none of that
mid-price rip-offs so beloved of tipsters! All buy prices are real too, again no
mid prices.
Share
Buy Sell now profit/loss
ASHTENNE
440 445 + £100
HARVEY NASH 86.13 96 +
£790
AMINEX
9.75 11.5 + £611
CHIEFTAIN 61.5
65 + £123
PREMIER 259.25
279 + £510
NORTHERN R 186.6 218 + £880
ISOTRON
458 510 + £1,560
UMBRO
92.75 98 + £326
CARRS
392 532 + £2,660
DART
296.6 370 + £1,468
HUNTING
185 180 - £200
HAVELOCK 120.45 138 + £1,053
GET
184 258 + £1,480
SONDEX
204.2 215 + £270
VP
138 180 + £1,680
TELECOM P 257.5 223 -
£1,035
BURREN
241.4 250 + £6,097
SONDEX
160 215 + £1,810
GET
248 258 + £300
TELECOM P 219
223 + 92
PROFIT £22,235
One thing that stands out is I've built up these profits while ignoring
all those gambling type shares like Jarvis, Petrel, BPRG, Tadpole etc.
All I've done is concentrated on companies making good profits and
increased dividends, earnings per share and all with good management.
It's called investment and I suggest to you gamblers out there if you
really want to make money - pick decent companies.. and be patient!Wednesday 5th January
My e-mail should start in the next few days and if you qualify, you'll get
my update at lunchtime whether or not the main site is delayed for any reason.
It's all hectic at home. Eliz's dad is visiting from Ireland and her
sister is here from the States, so a fairly international house at the moment.
Christopher is enjoying being the centre of attention and is currently
trying to work out where the music comes from when he's being automatically
rocked in his chair. Hey, maybe he'll be an engineer..
For those who missed yesterday's update I bought
Ashtenne Holdings (AHH) at
440p. A good-looking company that
I made money on previously and a decent breakout looks likely up to 480p.
I seem to have survived this morning's share mark down reasonably well.
But as they say, stocks can go down as well as up and I'm looking around to
build up a few shorts to balance out my very long portfolio.
So I've kicked in with a short on
Bovis Homes (BVS) and gone for a
£10 short at 590p. Target
540p, stop loss
605p. My reasoning is quite
clear.. it has a habit of going from 500-600 and back again!
Premier Foods reported
today - I bought for the love of Ambrosia Rice Pudding. Not a great reason, it's
true.
Telecom Plus is strong
considering it's ex dividend day. It should be down 5p so that's a good
performance. I'll be getting a couple of grand from my shares in a few days.
Umbro looks interesting as
it tries to climb above 100p - if it can close a couple of days above that would
be bullish.
Recent buy Harvey Nash is
going well today and I'm hoping for a break over 100p in the next couple of
weeks.
Northern Recruitment looks
ready for another burst upwards. Oil gamble
Aminex is in good profit and
there's more to come judging by today's action.
A bit of profit-taking in Burren
and Dart after recent strong
rises - I'm going to resist profit-taking temptations and hold on in there.
Tuesday 4th January 2005
Starting the year feeling a bit run down and with a cold because of lack
of sleep but Christopher is very much worth it!
All the usual features of the site will be back soon including the
postbag, which starts again next week.
Looks like a nice and easy 10-15% available for the taking here at this
property group. Excellent management here and I've long been a fan of this one.
I think it's fairly clearly underrated despite recent rises and the chart
sings a buy as well as the fundamentals so I had no problem in pressing the buy
button. I collected the last of the 440p that was going and it's now 445p to buy
as I write this.
Dart,
Harvey Nash,
Telecom Plus, and Aminex are all
rising. Telecom Plus goes ex dividend tomorrow so should start the day down 5 to
take the 5p dividend into account.
Premier Foods is going great guns
today on its way to 300p. Wendesday 29th December
I hope you all had a great time. Wasn't the TV a disgrace. Sorry, but the
Vicar of Dibley isn't my idea of entertainment.
We watched the second Harry Potter movie on DVD. I enjoyed the first half
but thought it ended up a bit too long and I got bored by the end. (Sorry Harry
fans).
It's been a great break. And more to come at the weekend - it's actually
nice to have time off the market.
The markets are very quiet - with the way the bank holidays fell this year
I think more people have gone away this Xmas leaving very little action.
It looks like there isn't going to be any serious action until next week.
The markets shut for half day on Friday so there's not many hours of trading
this week.
In fact there's bugger all action in my department.
Burren looks like it's breaking
out again and could be a serious winner for 2005.
Premier Foods is looking strong
too and I'm pretty certain I'll get the 300p I'm looking for.
Other than that I might as well carry on with my holiday. Actually I'm
just off to officially register Christopher Robert Burns.. that is the right
spelling of Christopher.. isn't it?
Past Commentaries
Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005
Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December
Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004
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