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Got the shock of my life this am to find the order had been filled on the
back of a profits warning; or was it worse than a profit warning. Who cares, the
order was filled at 35p. I waited
to see if there was going to be a bounce and closed out for a 1 point loss as I
can see no merit in holding as it can only go down further (imho). Onto the markets. One new trade and a
short this time. The short was made yesterday afternoon in
Blacks Leisure (BSLA) for
£20 a point at
455p with a
guaranteed stop loss at
485p. Target is
430p. The market maker on 334 retreated by
the look of it to kill off trading. Still, interesting to see what happens next.
Here's a letter worth pondering over, from reader
Matthew. 'I've bought 30 tickets
to Leeds festival @ £135 and intend to sell on Ebay in a couple of months. I did
this last year, bought 3 @ £110 and sold them on Ebay @ £210. I did this a couple of years ago and
had good gains. Is this a recognized trading platform and what alternatives are
there?? I am prepared to take high risks but am trying to gain the knowledge I
need . Matthew. In fact even if results are better
than expectations they can still get hammered. So you might be better to sell
the say before! Also try and make money over time -
if you try and make money over a week you'll start losing. I've really gone for it today with
two brand new buys! The first is a recovery play,
Nord Anglia Education (NAE). I
bought 5,000 shares at
135p (the shares already up 2p on
the day). Sentiment is more positive and it
recently announced an excellent contract win for school inspections which should
underpin the shares at around the current price. There is very strong support at 308p
but if the shares fell below this I'd take a quick loss as that would assume
another leg down. I think it's foolish to hold many
more than that in my Isas. Also given the recent run, I think it'll retrace to
200p before rising again to the 255p level. The 2,500 were sold at 232.5p to make
a profit of £1,454 and the 3,000 at 231 to take a loss of £780. I would look to
get back in on any weakness under 220p.
Interesting views from one of the
City's foremost technical analysts Robin Griffiths.He forecasts a slide for the
FTSE to 4,000 by October 2006 and even possibly 3,277. Spooky or what? I was idly reading
through my Cantor Index statement when I got a shock. I hardly ever look at them
and I should!! Turns out it's good news though as
the shares have spend upwards. It means I'm up £4,000 instead of just £1,000,
then I turned to the business section of the Times to see the words Rotork is it
time to buy?
I agree with one of the contributors
to my discussion forum on ADVFN. I think motor mouth Saira is going to win The
Apprentice. I think Alan Sugar reckons she's a
good salesperson. I'm not so sure - she talks down to everyone and patronises
them and also talks gobbledegook. This is OK selling the odd jar of chutney but
at a more senior level people will just laugh at her. They
prefer lovely gleaming tech stocks they'll do their brains on rather than a
really solid business like this that'll carry on rising in value. Having said
that someone bought 32,000 shares or so this morning. The
shares have raced from my buying price of 174p to 220p in just a few days! Next
target is 250p but for the time being that could be a difficult hurdle to jump.
Don't tell me what happened in The
Apprentice! I didn't see it last night, watching it on tape tonight... thank
you! There are so many people who follow Charts,
including the market makers that as soon as a signal appears they buy or sell or
the mms adjust there prices to take advantage of what is likely to follow. A bloody good day on the markets for
me though I say so myself! Everyone on the planet seems to be tipping Telecom
Plus. Shares Magazine gave it as a main
tip pointing out as I have done that the shares fall has been overdone and
despite all the recent negatives it still remains cash generative with a
dividend likely to be more than 6% this year. Even given the worst news it's all
in the price and if it can clear 200p, 220 should be regained. I think 250p
would only be conquered after the next statement in June. Anyway it certainly
looked like good timing on my part on my buy at 174p! A close above 530p for Burren would
be bullish as would a close above 480p for Rotork - I have extremely large
spread positions on both.
So the election's underway. Who shall we vote for? Smarmy oily slippery old Blair?
The alcoholic whatever his name is Liberal guy? The
worst case is Ken Livingstone who gets away with whatever he wants even though
the majority don't agree they should be taxed to drive their cars into London
and certainly not charged £8! I'll vote probably. Are the Loonies standing this
year? I very
much doubt they will forego their methodology after reading the above compelling
argument by the aforementioned.' Lots of blue around the market today
which is very nice. Tuesday's buys
Costain and Keir are both
going great guns. Keir has
risen very nicely and Costain is rising slowly but surely - any close above 50p
would be a bullish sign. Northern
Recruitment has bounced back well today - my patience may be rewarded
eventually.
Just about recovered now from my long
night out. You see as you get older it seems to take longer to get a hangover
out of the system. I had to
point out to him that a chart is great for seeing how a share has performed over
a given period, but at the end of the day a share price moves up when there are
more buyers than sellers (and the market maker is short of stock), and down when
the reverse occurs. A bit simplistic I know but factual.
What a weekend! I went on a hen night
of a very good friend of mine and it was a great laugh. Four blokes and nine
crazy girls. Running it through my 'traffic
lights' system (more on this in my forthcoming book) it came up with some decent
'greens'. The only reason it's not higher is
the shares are quite tightly held and institutions have a tough job getting any
shares. Any of these things would see the
price shoot higher. Good old solid
Roxboro is up a touch as is good old
Sondex.
I've decided with the markets looking rocky it's time to come out and bank all the
profits built up in my positions. But when
you're a trader/investor how can you be out of shares? It's not all about the
money, let's face it, it's exciting and entertaining too isn't it? Onto the markets and not a bad day.
I'm still wary of getting stuck in and buying anything - this year is really
going to be the year of the careful stockpicker.
We're
playing a great April Fool on the staff of the cafe. We've made up their
payslips to show nearly all their wages this month have gone in back tax. So one
gets 4p in her pay packet, another one gets £1.23 etc! Of
course they'll challenge it but we'll just say there's nothing we can do, it's
the tax office that takes the money! Can't wait to see their faces when we tell
them it's an April Fool!
A night out! Doesn't happen often
these days but Elizabeth's two sisters are visiting from Ireland. They stayed in
and watched Telly. Difficult times in the markets - I'm
sure many of you have seen profits pared back a bit or indeed some of you bought
stuff a couple of weeks ago could be nursing losses. Slightly
sad over this one but the chart began to worry me - I have little doubt I'll get
back in on any big weakness as I like the company. But I do try and keep emotion
out if I can. So I sold my shares for
249p to bank a decent profit of
£780. I also cashed in the spread bet position at
251p to bank an even better
profit of £1,200 to make a total
profit of £1,980 which isn't bad! When I originally bought the shares they looked
strong and about to break out. The time to sell is when the opposite becomes
true. There is a big dividend on the way so I was a bit torn but for now I did
the sensible thing. Something I'm still crap at despite years of
experience. Cos if I'd stuck by that I wouldn't now be in a dilemma. For the moment I'm sticking with it on the view
that it's going to bounce off 70p. Very disappointed with this one's performance
and also my own poor judgement. Dart
is having a stab at rising as well.
Ashtenne reports tomorrow so my fate will be sealed one way or another!
Telecom
Plus bounced again off the 170p level - still a mystery why it's gone so
low (given that the gas losses are in the price unless I'm bananas). We'll see
whether I bought at the bottom or not fairly soon... It announced a good deal today with the mobile
networks to provide psychic and palm readings via mobiles.
Bloody Easter eggs. I've got loads to get through and it means I've got to add at least
an extra mile to my treadmill runs. So the mood of the market hasn't
improved over Easter but it always amazes me how quickly sentiment can change
and you have to decide whether there may be further falls or whether there are
some shares that have come back too much and now look attractive. The PE has tumbled to 14 and the
market cap only just in treble figures. If the gas problems aren't in the price
now my name is Michael Caine.
I have to hand it to Alan Sugar -
that was a great 'Apprentice' last night. It was a great relief after I
eventually managed to get some milk down Christopher. The doc gave us some stuff which
should over the next week make it more comfortable to take milk. We think it
might be working already. No wonder he didn't fire her like he
should have done. Sugar knows she makes great TV because she winds everyone else
up. I beat Elizabeth's Dad at Scrabble
to with one of my favourite words.. 'poxy'. Talking of poxy what's the big deal
about the Boat Race? A two horse race? I can't think of anything more tedious!
Hurrah! It's Easter and I'm sure
like most of you I'm looking forwards to the markets being shut for a while. A
great chance to relax and recuperate. Onto the final markets till Tuesday!
I did make one trade but that was in my new high risk SIPP more on that in a
minute. A bit of a bounceback for some stocks hit over the last couple of days.
We're stressed about Christopher at
the moment. We think he might have reflux which means he finds it hard to eat
because of acid building up in his tummy. We've booked a clinic appointment
for this afternoon to get him checked out. He seems to have the symptoms and
it's probably why he's not putting on weight. I'm sure it'll all be all right but
we love him so much we can't bear the thought of anything going wrong. Are you feeling the fear? It's
always difficult when markets fall heavily and in hindsight it's always easy to
see where you should have sold! I added a short in
Intercontinental Hotels today (IHG)-
£10 a point at 630p. Target is
595p, stop loss
645p. Looks a touch overvalued at
the current price but I'll exit sharpish if it turns back up. Now to the markets, it's carnage out there. but
most of mine are ok except the mining stocks. They're all down about 10%. Am I worried? NO. Am I
selling? NO. Would I buy if quality stocks fall much futher? YES
Oh what a joy my little son is! Despite
being woken up every night it doesn't matter because his smiling and gurgling
makes it all worthwhile. But with a market cap now under
£120m on profits of over £10m and a dividend of nearly 5% it must be looking
good value, even if the next lot of profits show a small drop.
Thank goodness we're heading into a
holiday period. A few days off the market is brilliant because we all need to
recharge our batteries. As she knows nothing about the
markets she can tell me where I've been talking too much jargon and she's helped
me to simplify everything. Usually holiday periods are very good for the markets. Lots of optimism
tends to abound at Xmas and Easter so it's not a bad time to buy shares. Or they will pay you 80% of the FTSE
growth over the next 5 years, which ever is the greater. Also good results from
Admiral (bet the papers tomorrow
use a headline like Admirable Admiral) In the disappointing department are
Emerald and
Telecom Plus. Both are bumping
along the bottom of recent ranges and both are capable of springing a surprise.
It looks like the market needs to see the next tep results and whether the gas
hedging has been a success or not.
So another relatively quiet day. I
think there is a connection between the small cap shares not moving and
Cheltenham being on! Methinks the minds of the market-makers are elsewhere
today!
At last! I know this sounds like
smalltalk (look, I don't know you that well, what do you expect?) but isn't it
great to get milder temperatures and a bit of sun? So
thanks to Telecom Plus and managing to irritate my boss enough to get a
redundancy cheque I was quickly free. Thanks Shares Magazine!! They tipped
one of the shares in my new high-risk SIPP this morning and it's sent the shares
up nearly ten per cent! Onto the main markets, how dull has
it been this week? Yawn! There's a definite malaise out here - could be to do
with Cheltenham and very little movement in the small cap arena. I could
have got a much better price early on and it was down over 25p already before I
sold. Still worth a sell though I reckon.
Some helpful advice from reader
Kenny regarding me being caught out by the maid playing mummies and
daddies. Talking of patience, Geoffrey wrote an interesting
e-mail: Onto the main markets now. Still a
bit quiet as we head up towards Easter but as the markets are down I'm pretty
happy as a few of mine are going up today. Still confident I'll get 10-20%
within 3-6 months and the chances of a bid thrown in. The sole market maker on
109p looks to have a few shares to clear. Carrs
Milling has cleared 600p again and I'm hoping it will never start with a
'5' again! Burren looks like it's
about to claw back from the recent profit-taking. Emerald
is a volatile impossible to value stock and my riskiest. I'm happy to ride out
the current down move as long as it holds 160p.
Croda is really doing the
business for me and I'm very pleased with its performance.
I was thinking about putting in a
new phone system at the cafe. If you can't get through to a real live person
right away anywhere else without having to press various numbers and then
listening to music for half an hour I thought I might as well do the same thing
with my business. They float things like this in the
press so when you realise they won't charge the tax, you breathe a sign of
relief.... and vote Labour again! Blair's been using this old trick for years.
The thing is, it works! Thanks to reader
Rodger for this: 'The act of doing things for other
people.' So I've made a couple of trades
today. I've bought into a new company,
6,500 shares in PDP
Ports (PDP) at
110p - now that sounds really
exciting, I don't think! However I have some good reasons for this. Every
portfolio needs a share like this! This isn't a share that's going to
suddenly double in value overnight but I think it's a cracking 3-6 months hold
for I reckon at the very least a 10% gain but possibly 20%. And on top of that
it might even end up as a bid target. Pure speculation on my part and that
would be a bonus. But really I'm holding this now for what I think will be good
steady progress.
The mother-in-law is here. No, I'm
not about to start a Les Dawson type joke. She's not even fat. Moving onto the main markets and
nothing as yet tempting me today. Star of the day is
Roxboro (right spelling just for
you Ian). A really good statement has seen the
shares soaring nearly 20p - and with Aberforth still buying up shares this
really looks like a winner.
One thing I won't be watching
tonight is 'Red Nose Day' - I'll be watching the DVD of the movie 'The
Corporation' - all about business. Sounds good. How much money actually ends up
where it's supposed to after most of it is stolen by corrupt politicians?
And the whole thing just gives an
excuse to exhibitionists to run around with no clothes on. I find the so-called
comedians taking part (I like Lenny Henry and Jonathan Ross) about as funny as
waking up to a profits warning from a favourite company. It's now sitting waiting for a final
edit and jig about which I hope to get done in the next few days and I would
guess publication in April/May. My new high risk Sipp certainly
gives me more work to do as it opens up hundreds of other shares to look at and
I'm trawling through a few. One looks very interesting. But with aim stocks the most
important thing with the wide spreads is timing and getting the right price.
It's coming back a bit after a strong run so I might be buying early next week.
A hard night last night. Christopher just kept on waking up and neither of us got any sleep. In fact I'm not quite sure who I am or where I am. And who are you anyway and why are you here? God knows. How can you tell when
the FTSE 100 is about to top out and fall? One perverse clue could be when you
keep seeing the charting gurus come out with bullish statements along the lines
of... well 5,300 is the next target and then 6,000 etc. I've got spam e-mails along these
lines.. we're really bullish on the FTSE, join our website NOW!!!! When all the chart gurus agree the
FTSE is to rocket there is only one thing worth doing - get that FTSE short
going! I have never met a rich chartist,
although I do like Nicole Elliot's analysis on commodities/currencies/bonds on
CNBC Europe around 4.20pm on Tuesdays. My opinion is the markets look a bit
toppy because of bond selling, dollar weakness and crude oil prices. However, I believe that the macro
performance of the US economy depends on dollar weakness, and if GBP/USD can
break and hold above $2/£ and all the other currencies are sympathetic to this,
the equity markets will keep going up. Weakening the dollar is the only way
I can see the US economy reducing the twin deficits, which equates to every
american owing $26,000. So this is not sustainable. At the moment, I would expect a
small dollar rally, implying a pull-back on the equity markets, but the upward
motion of the markets will be resumed soon.' Once I see some nutter saying that
Share X is 'breaking up' and 'medium-term target price' is some ridiculous level
above the present price, my finger starts nervously hovering over the Sell
button! But of course we never hear any more
about the other 99%.....unless it's that 'support has been breached' and
'medium-term price' is predicted to be a tiny fraction of the current level! Any
mention of the previous ridiculous upside target is, of course, omitted. Apart from one selection I'm pleased
with the current line-up building in my new high-risk Sipp. Yesterday's buy is
up another 5% today. Buying risky AIM stock requires a
different mindset to the shares I normally buy and I must admit it is a very
interesting challenge. Tons of ups and downs and weird
things going on today. Lots of market maker tree shakes and various shenanigans
plus results and all kinds of other things.
Honestly! A bunch of (admittedly very sweet) ladies has cost me a few quid today. I was quite keen on buying Chime Communications (CHW) this morning and the price was showing 31-32p and Comdirect showed it was quite easy to buy a fair few at 32p. These are all signs of a good turnaround story and there is tons of room for upside, right up to 50p or even more. My initial target is 50 with stop loss (which I don't think I'll need!) at 30p. I feel a bit annoyed I didn't get the 32p but that's life. I sold off my
Vanco today to raise money for
the Chime buy. The BA deal didn't lift the price as much as I thought and the
shares I think will stay anchored until results which are still a few weeks
away. I sold for 305p to book a
small loss of £40. Get
Group appears to be getting going again. Also brilliant rises from
Diploma,
Dart and
Emerald and
Rotork! What more could a man
want?
A great and relaxing weekend in
Ireland. OK, so I spent £1,500 on it but it was worth every penny. I've got a few ideas to ensure his
fund really grows and I'm so glad none of the money will go to any funds and
therefore avoiding bad decisions and commission charges. So pretty good stuff while I was away!
Carrs Milling one of my patient holds has rocketed again - and there is
much more to come as it's still very much undervalued and there's no reason why
it shouldn't add at least another 100p.
That's it! I've had enough! This is the last update for this website. It's been fun but I know when it's time to
quit! It's
been an interesting challenge updating the site every day for so long. But now I
need some relaxation, some time to myself.. let's face it it's been
years....since I had a holiday! Did I make your heart beat faster? You see -
you'd miss me if I really went. Secondly,
he gave the main reason for sacking (Miranda)? because he said she had no
respect for her leader.
Surely, respect has to be earned, and Adele wouldn't command
respect in a hundred years. Thirdly,
if he was sacking one he should have sacked the other. Also, Miranda had
obviously been on a management course and just kept repeating course
phraseology. An
expert would give a tip each day and a company boss would talk up his company in
order to give the five teams guidance in picking shares. Several
of the tips were penny shares and as the programme became popular, any tips
would soar that day! The following week a statement was
issued by a company called Reflex 'They knew of no reason why their shares had
risen'! Of
course the company was never really worth a bean and the shares went all the way
down but I sold at 83p! Looking
back I think we were all a bit crazy then but we must all admit, win or lose, it
was entertaining! Onto the markets and because I'm off
on holiday I decided not to get tempted into any more trading today. It's unlikely I'll be able to look
at the market on Friday so I thought best to stay away till I get back on Monday
afternoon. A great day though with lots of good risers.. Today's results show the rises have
been fair and there is more to come - though I expect to take profits sometimes,
it should get to 500p by year end. One to probably hold long-term. I
may take profits when my spread bet expires in a couple of weeks.
Interesting points there from Susan.
Reader Clive writes:
'I agree 100% with your comments re-trying to find the bottom. I have in
the past tried to buy recovery shares on brokers (advice???) Now I only buy
shares which have recently had their highest high, this system may miss some
opportunities but it also avoids a lot of LOSSES.
'This system also points to where to put the stop loss Like yourself I
also have VP. and my stop is 180 like yourself. May I also say I love your piece
about self employment all absolutely true.'
Thanks Clive. I think he means my 'Escape' Piece. Click 'Escape' above to read.
It's fallen a little since then so nearly in profit already. My reason?
Given that retailers are having a hard time, this looks overvalued to me. And
there's a statement due out shortly. I'm hoping it won't be too good and the
shares will tumble.
I've put in a guaranteed stop loss with the spread firm just in case
something unforseen is announced like a bid!
Yesterday's buy of Cattles
has worked like a dream - already a massive 14 points higher and I think I'll
get somewhere near the 350p I was looking for quickly. I'm already up £750 - not
bad for one day! It'll be tempting to take profits soon!
Yesterday's other buy Nord
Anglia's spread has widened since I bought. It seems to have a market
maker which has shedloads of shares and refused to let it go beyond 335p.
If 135 proves a big barrier to cross, any move above that would look
bullish. Any move below 125 would be the opposite and I'd take a loss!
Costain has seen some
decent buying. 52p is the magic figure to get through. Once through that we
should see 58p.
Emerald Energy has released
a decent drilling statement. It's nicely up today though I'd have thought it
would do even better. Looks like a long-term winner whatever!
VP has settled very well
above 200p - looking forward to its next statement which I believe will be
rather good. Another 20-30 points of upside here.Tuesday, 12th April
After I have sold the tickets I hope to invest the money in shares, buying
shares in a company forecasted with good results, say a week before and sell on
the day but obviously doing your research.
Hi Matthew - well, my view is your 'system' is flawed. Remember the market
generally tries to factor in the next set of results and these days if any
results are even slightly under expectations, shares get hammered on the day.
Matthew - there is simply no easy method of making money and this system
is as flawed as all the others I've come across.
Pick good companies, be patient and the profits will come.
Thanks to Laurent for this..
Lot of talk recently about the markets being irrational. Some fellow on
CNBC summed it up nicely with the following: 'The market can remain irrational
longer than you can remain solvent'
My target is 155p, stop
loss 120p. I have a fairly short
timescale on these, hoping to get the rise I'm looking for within 2-4 weeks.
The shares have had a torrid time, falling off a cliff, diving from 250p
to under 100p but there seems a good recovery underway.
Given the shares have already risen quite a bit it's a bit on the risky
side as profit-takers could move in here so I'd keep an eye on it and take a
small loss early if sentiment changes again.
My other buy is a spread bet long of
Cattles (CTT). I bought for
£50 a point at
317p early this morning. Target
350p, stop loss
305p. It's up to around 321p as I
write now.
The shares were hit by a warning that under new accountancy rules, profits
would be a lot lower than expected.
However the market had a look at this and dropped the shares to a fair
value price of 350p. The recent fall seems an overreaction and I'm looking for a
quick bounce back up to the 350p area.
I'm really looking for short-term trades in both these shares rather than
my usual longer-term investing. So I guess they are more of a gamble than an
investment. Let's see how I get on!
I decided to take profits in my
Telecom Plus buy at 174 and a loss in the ones bought at 257, meanwhile
keeping the ones bought at 219 if that makes sense!
My reasoning is I have more than 40,000 shares in the market bought via
options at 18p, 82p and 120p. Which is more than £90,000 worth!
This adds profits of £674 to website totals lifting the share buy profits
to over £100,000 for he first
time! Grand total is now £143,327.
Some nice big buys early on in
Costain this morning. These might help to push the price above 50p which
would look nice and bullish.
VP is climbing and holding
above that crucial 200p level - some good closes above 200p should open up the
230 I'm looking for. Broadcastle
is showing good signs and looking for a lift above the 100p level again soon.Monday, 11th April
He believes with house prices flat or falling, consumer spending faltering
a slide could tip the economy into recession. The market has surged and a 4,000
level would make perfect sense - I tend to agree with him.
And I think I agree with his views that there is nothing to panic about
right now but it would be worth taking profits/money off the table around the
end of May this year.
Despite this doom scenario I believe there will still be profit-making
possibilities but everyone will have to be more selective when it comes to stock
picking.
However it is so easy to short these days with CFDs and spreads that there
will be plenty of overvalued stocks to short. And if the FTSE goes to 5,400 I'll
be putting on a massive short to hold for a year or so.
Those of you into really risky AIM stocks should be aware these stocks get
hit very badly in stock market falls. Those of you following tipsters may get
burned. Just my view!
How is the election going to hit the market? Lots of views on my ADVFN
premium BB! My view is a hung parliament is the worst scenario as the market
hates uncertainty.
I saw instead of the £15 a point I thought I had on Rotork it was actually
£50! I must have made a mistake when I initially put it on!
Luckily for me two fund managers said 'yes' and the shares are soaring
today! I'll stick to the £50 a point!
Another superb day for the portfolio as it continues to sprint higher with
many risers. Apart from the star of the day,
Rotork,
VP Group is on the up again and
is nicely higher than when I bought. I expect a slow and steady rise up to the
230p area.
Telecom Plus shows no sign
of stopping the significant gains since I bought right at the bottom at 174p.
250p is the next hurdle.
Sondex is up a decent
amount and I'm looking for a break above the previous high at about 240p.
Croda has proved a star since I
bought and it's looking to settle above the 400p area today.
Also going well Emerald Energy
back over the 200p level. Is is possible that we could see another charge up
towards 240p? A statement due soon should decide things.
PD Ports and
Chime have proved a touch
disappointing but I feel both are worth holding onto.
Friday, 08th April
Onto the markets. One new trade made late yesterday - I added to my
current position in VP Group (VP.)
I bought 3,000 shares just
after 4pm yesterday at 190p. I
had no idea a trading statement was coming out this morning but pleased to see
it's a very positive one.
I originally bought the shares at 138p in July last year. And they still
look cheap! Given profits look likely to top £10m in the next results statement
they look worth about 240p to me.
The only reason they're not at 240p is VP shares just aren't 'trendy'.
Vehicle hire doesn't get punters going!
OK, VP shares will never set the world alight but there's another 15% here
I believe with also the ability to sleep at night and a good dividend.
I think the price will start to rise in the run up to results. If the
results are better than I expect, then shares could see 260p. My initial target
is 230p with stop loss at
180p.
A great end to an excellent week. Nearly every share in the portfolio is
showing good gains today. As I say, if you invest in quality shares you'll
eventually get payback.
Telecom Plus big cheese
Charles Widoger bought 100,000 shares yesterday and there were some other big
buys too.
Quite a number of my shares just above important breakout levels including
Burren and
Rotork which both look set for
excellent gains.
Carrs,
Broadcastle,
Gibbs,
Get, and
Diploma are all higher today.
Gibbs is going great guns and looks to have 500p as a target shortly.
Emerald Energy is trying to
get back over 200p it's due to make a statement next week so hold onto your
hats! Croda has been a really
good spread bet winner.
Thursday, 07th April
Thanks to those of you e-mailing me asking how my little boy is doing. All
I can say is being a parent has been a delight and I thank my lucky stars I
don't have to go to a full-time job every day.
I really wouldn't want to miss out on seeing him all the time. He's still
got a bit of reflux but it's not too bad.
We put him to bed at 7.30pm - he usually wakes for a top up at 2am and
then he sleeps to 6am so it's not too bad.
I miss him even if I've popped to the cafe for a couple of hours. Ahhhhhhh!
He's still on the small side but he's drinking enough milk now which is good
news. He smiles all the time and it makes my heart melt!
Reader Geoff writes: Hi
Robbie, I haven't seen all your recent discussion on Technical Analysis, and so
I may be repeating something that has already been mentioned, which is the
self-fulfilling nature of TA.
Laurent writes: Can't let Frank'
comments go unanswered. I'm up 30% so far this year and managed over 45% last
year (excluding my oil option trading). My chart reading friend managed 8% for
his clients last year and is up 1% this year.
The few funds I have (with the big boys who also read charts) gained an
average of 11% last year and are now down 3%
I never bother with charts - I hope the other chartists continue, so when
I win, they lose. Point proven I think?
Best wishes, Laurent.
John writes: On charts v
fundamentals, I did very well a few years back primarily using charts but with
these choppy markets I find I sleep better at night if I am satisfied the
company meets my fundamental checklist and some obvious charting points . For
the record like you I'm on Kier .
Thanks to all contributors. There will always be a fundamentals VS Charts
battle.
I'm very pleased with my last three buys!
Telecom Plus and
Keir have made very good gains as
has Costain.
I hope I've showed if you have sound companies, it can be worth keeping
your nerve during a downturn.
Great rises from a number of my stocks today.
Emerald Energy is steaming up
ahead of a statement expected in the next few days.
Broadcastle has been
quietly going higher and the performance is looking strong as it went
ex-dividend so a nice divi is on the way too!
Diploma is showing signs of
storming higher too.
Two stocks that I have very large stakes in,
Rotork and
Burren are both on big breakout
territory today.
Harvey Nash continues its
good comeback vindicating my decision to ignore the stop loss. Also heading
higher are Gibbs,
Keir and
Get.
Costain is hesitating to rise
further as the 50p barrier looms - needs just a bit of a kick!
Wednesday, 06th April
Or Michael Howard who made a cock up of it last time he was in power and
who is a bit average?
Or none of them? If there was a bit on the voting paper which said none of
the above I'm sure that would cruise to victory.
30 days of campaigning to put up with as the news channels whip themselves
up into a state of frenzy while it bores the bollocks out of all of us.
History will show what a ghastly government this is. We are taxed higher
and higher and we let them get away with it.
Poor old Prince Charlie. He's getting married on Grand National day. BIG
mistake. What do we want to watch? Him - or the race? I think we know the
answer.
Reader Frank writes (a bit
sarcastic but then that's Frank!) 'Just a brief note after reading today's
contribution by Laurence regarding his friend who he says is totally into
charts.
Well I must say Laurence must be a perceptive fellow pointing out to his
friend that charts are great for seeing how a share has performed over a given
period. That must have been a revelation to his friend who I'm sure will be
eternally grateful.
He then went on to point out that if there are more buyers than seller the
price will rise, and vice versa., yet another devastatingly accurate insight.
Chart reading is the chosen method of trading by a large number of traders
who believe price to be the universal truth.
Carrs Milling is reporting
in a couple of weeks, here's hoping for a good one!
Telecom Plus has announced it's
reporting in June. It's going to be a very interesting one and will give us a
clue as to what's going on there.
Plenty of small risers today including
Dart,
Gibbs,
Burren and
Broadcastle. Nothing really
grabbing my attention as a buy though a couple are calling my attention to short
though waiting for the right moment.
Tuesday, 05th April
I thought today it was time for a dip into my postbag (quaint expression,
eh - I mean a dip into my e-mails...)
Laurence writes: 'I have a friend
who is totally into charts and I know your (and my) disdain for them.
He left wondering how I can make any money but he is in an 8am to 8 pm job
and at the beck and call of his clients 7/7 24/24 and I am relaxing in my home
office, taking it easy this week with my kids and wondering what I shall do next
week. Ahhh, the stress of it.'
On The Apprentice, Terry writes:
'I feel that all 4 on the losing team deserved to be fired! The girl who was
fired totally failed to get her 'message' across.
'Motormouth' Saisha always blames everybody else, paid no attention to her
mate, and blamed her 'leader'.
The project manager totally ignored what the two girls were doing on
Saturday, therefore was not attempting to lead the team, and should have been
fired. His claiming to be a Roman Catholic was unlikely to get much sympathy
from Jewish Alan Sugar.'
Nice write-up in The Telegraph today on
Costain. 'If you didn't buy
before, it's time to buy now.'
One of the market makers seems to have a few shares so it hasn't moved up
as much as it should have today. But who cares? It's a great safe tuckaway.
One sell made yesterday afternoon - that's my shares in
Wyndenam Press sold for
148.75 for a small loss of
£210.
I have to admit it was simply boredom with the non movement of the shares
that got to me! And that's it what can I say?
Rotork is looking
interesting as it looks like it could burst out of the 475p high and if it does
we could see fireworks. Burren
still needs some closes above 535p but that shouldn't be long in coming...
Monday, 04th April
We went skating, then bowling, then watched the movie Hitch (very good).
Then to a Moroccan restaurant where as per usual I was the one picked on by the
belly dancer. I'm then not quite sure why but ended up crashing someone's 30th
birthday party in Soho.
Then the highlight of the night which was karaoke - I led the singing for
two hours with my best performance I believe was my singing of Britney Spears'
Toxic. The girls followed up with a superb rendition of 'Like A Virgin'.
I ended up at home at 5am at which point my little four month old boy
required his feed and as I was the one who'd been out all night I felt it was
down to me rather than getting Elizabeth out of bed.
So, er retired to bed at 6am. Dirty stop out! Look, it doesn't happen much
anymore, and I think I'm entitled to the occasional blow out, aren't I? I guess
I'm still feeling a bit fragile this morning so don't talk too loud please....
Despite feeling hungover today I still made two new trades. There's
nothing like having a share in a portfolio that you think has an upside of at
least 20% and practically no downside whatsoever even if the market crashes!
Well, I reckon I've got that today in a brand new buy and a return to the
one share in the market that has made me the biggest profit over the years... my
old pal Costain (COST).
I bought this 4-5 years ago at 12p, doubled my money to 24p. Bought again
at 22p and sold at 35p. Bought at 32 and sold at 42. I've made profits of nearly
£40,000 over the years. You could argue I'm emotionally involved but I don't
think so.
Today's buy came about because I happened to notice a news story on
Costain which came through at 9.06pm.
Costain is a housebuilder that very nearly went bust a few years ago and I
originally bought as a bit of a recovery gamble.
It's not a gamble any more - the company is going great guns and winning
loads of contracts - its current market cap looks 15% too low to me at the very
least.
One of the shareholders did sell out recently which has helped liquidity
quite a bid for medium sized buys.
Today's announcement reveals COST has won part of a massive deal with
Southern Water worth £750 million.
This together with other good wins secures the company's future and I'd be
surprised if the share dipped below 44p again. I bought
15,000 shares at
46p. The price has risen a touch
since I bought to 46-47p.
My initial target is 52p
which is the high on the chart. But a break through there could open up 58p.
Stop loss which I doubt I'll need to use is
42p.
I've also made another trade and topped up my holding in
Keir Group (KIE) - this time
adding a spread bet long.
I mentioned last week I was about to top up! It's at ludicrously
undervalued levels and it has a very strong bottom at current prices. Like
Costain, a safe tuckaway even if the main market tanks.
So I've topped up by buying £10
(equivalent to 1,000 shares) at 852p.
Target 920p stop loss
820p.
An excellent results statement from
Burren. This company errs on the
cautious side when reporting to the market which is good news for us holders.
This is a massive company in the making and I am more than happy to ignore
the daily ups and downs believing that this one will end the year at at least
the 700p level.
Telecom Plus has been
marked up after being tipped by the Sunday Telegraph. What the company really
needs to kick up the share price is a trading statement saying the gas price
issue is OK or a director buy. Friday, 01st April
The idea is to take a rest for a few weeks and then come back into the
markets probably to take advantage of the usual summer rally.
So I systematically sold out of all my positions this morning except for
Harvey Nash and my old favourite Burren.
It'll be a bit strange being out of shares for a while but with a small
baby it might be for the best.I'd expect to get back into shares in September
when I think the markets will rise again.
APRIL FOOL!!!!!!
Did I have you going there! Ha! Mind you, the joke could be on me as
it might have ended up being the right thing to do.
The April Fool at the cafe went well. The face on Eva when she found only
4 pence in her wage packet was priceless.
'Sorry, ' I said. 'You've been underpaying tax. You're lucky I'm not
asking YOU for money today.'
'But how am I going to pay my rent?' she wailed.
Anyhow they all fell for it. I met them all in the kitchen and said:
'Look, I'll explain to you all why you only have a few pence in your pay packets
today...it all centres around the date you see at the top of the slip....'
Blank faces. 'April the first...'? Comprehension dawned.. laughter and
relief all round. Nice when you get a joke right isn't it?
Good on Prince Charles I reckon. Let's face it Nicholas Witchell is a
creepy crawlie isn't he? Just lucky the Prince was careful enough not to use the
two words that he more than likely calls Witchell behind closed doors. The first
word begins with an f and the second with a c is my guess!
It's not going to be as easy as last year but I'm looking forward to
making money this year as a real challenge.
There are a couple of excellent companies out there I really like the look
of and I'm just waiting for that right time. Timing is going to be very
important this year.
Some good movers - Burren
after a massive tree shake is heading higher - the next level to get to is back
to the 535p level which we might see next week. They appointed a new board
member today who has plenty of experience.
My Telecom Plus buy at 174p
looks well timed as the shares try and get back over 200p. I'm convinced any bad
news over gas is in the price here. Any close above 200p would be very positive.
VP has been quiet for a bit
but there is a little sign it could be ready for a new upleg. Results are due
soon which will probably decide it.
Keir is coming back to near
where I bought - I'm getting ready to top up! Well undervalued.
Sondex is steaming back higher
too. As are Gibbs and Dandy and
Harvey Nash.
My risky buy in the placing of TV
Commerce (TVC) is beginning to pay off - after revealing its link up with
the mobile phone companies to provide picture palm readings it's up more than
15% today.Thursday, 31st March
Another great Apprentice last night. How Saira gets away with still being
there is a mystery. She's a right pain in the bum although I guess maybe she
closes deals because people just want to get rid of her. Looks like Alan isn't
into 'posh' types so that could mean curtains for James soon.
The market's rallied today and it's nice to see some blue around though
it's not especially convincing.
I thought last year that this year might be tough and I feel the FTSE will
be in the low 4000 area by the end of the year.
I don't feel any need to panic or anything but I'll be taking some profits
off the table over the next few weeks and looking at trying to make money out of
any downside via shorting.
Having said all that there are always bargains out there whatever market
conditions and there will always be undervalued shares around.
And also I feel most of the companies I'm in look pretty good value still
so as I said no major scramble to get out.
Those of you into the really small AIM penny shares, beware! If the market
turns these could be hit very badly - think about taking profits if you can
sometime soon.
It's good to wake up and see one of your companies has been bid for!
That's what happened with Ashtenne
this morning - a very nice surprise and I'm glad I wasn't shaken out of it over
the last few days!
The bid is at 470p but I decided to take the profit at
460.3p - my reasoning with bids
is just take the money at slightly below the bid price.. ie take the money and
run especially if it's unlikely there will be any counter bids.
That banks a profit for the site of
£406. And that's the end of the
Ashtenne story as far as I'm concerned... sad to see the end of the share as
I've made some nice profits on it over the last couple of years.
Elsewhere some beaten up stocks are on the way back.
Emerald is trying to get back to
the 200p area. Harvey Nash has
bounced strongly from what I suspected was a firm floor at 70p.
Gibbs and Dandy,
Hitachi, and
Telecom Plus are all having a
good day. Looks like an overhang has just cleared in
PD Ports and I'm still confident
about my 120p target.
I have a feeling in my waters that
Dart Group is going to announce something good - the mm's are mucking
about with the price which always makes me feel interested.
So all in all especially given that lovely bid this morning, a much better
day. While I have a few shares I'm eyeing up I'm waiting just in case the market
turns down again - better be safe than sorry!
Wendesday, 30th March
We went out and I gorged myself on ribs with BBQ sauce, chicken and lots
of other disgusting things plus some rather good cocktails.
Then we went to see the new Woody Allen movie 'Melinda and Melinda'. Due
to the fact I'd eaten and drunk far too much I'm afraid I can't review the movie
as I was in a deep sleep for most of it. Elizabeth reckons it was OK - she just
enjoyed looking at the New York apartments featured!
The problem is: do you run round like a headless chicken and panic and
sell everything or hold for a bounce?
I feel it's a good time just to re-evaluate a portfolio and possibly get
rid of anything you're not sure about. The good strong healthy stocks usually
bounce back.
With the markets still uncertain I'm gradually re-working the portfolio to
contain a little more shorting and taking a few positions off the table.
You have to move with the markets and change strategy if need be. I'm not
certain yet whether the change of mood is going to last or a big bounce is on
the way which is why I am moving without too much haste.
I jacked in two positions this morning one for a big profit and one for a
medium sized loss. First to go was RPC.
I also took one loss - I sold my
Birse shares (real trade 35,000 shares) at
12.5p - my reason was simply the
stop loss was well and truly broken by the small early fall and it seemed
sensible to take the loss of £675.
Taking the loss and the profit together that's a total profit banked for
the site today of £1,305.
A few of my lot being hit today including
Keir,
Hitachi, and
Burren. All these are fine
companies and I'd be surprised if they didn't bounce back.
Burren produced a report
yesterday noting one well was not producing any oil and another was producing a
lot. So the shares have been volatile - but the long-term uptrend is still well
intact.
Harvey Nash had me in a
fundamentals Vs charts dilemma. Fundamentals say fine, chart said sell. The real
lesson to learn (yet again!) is trying to stick by stop losses.
Now the bright spots! Just as well I took out a couple of shorts recently
- both are going well in the sinking market -
Derwent Valley and
Intercontinental Hotels both
slipping nicely with good profits beginning to build in both positions.
Carrs is fighting back - my
suspicion still is market-maker manipulation due to a private short - I wonder
whether profits have been taken now? If so Carrs should get the 50p or so back
it's lost recently. Carrs is to report on April 19th.
Interesting deal from a company I bought a few weeks ago in a placing -
TV Commerce (TVC).
The big cheese at the company has bought 250,000 shares in the company so he
obviously thinks things could go well. I'll keep you all up to date with
progress in this one from time to time.Tuesday, 29th March
I remain a little on the cautious side but I'm beginning to see there are
some interesting looking bargains out there.
Carrs Milling and
Telecom Plus look the most
tempting after falls.
Of course you should take no notice of my views on Telecom Plus as I'm
emotionally involved - the company that got me out of the rat race.
But even if I wasn't involved I really feel I'd be buying now! Unless the
gas loss problems have spiralled out of control the fall this morning looked
totally overdone.
So foolishly or not (you fool -ed) I bought
2,500 TEP shares at
174.35p. Stop loss
150, target
200.
This proved good timing for the moment as the shares have since started to
rise and are 178-185 as I write. Time will tell whether I'm right.
Harvey Nash has been a big
disappointment and I'm tempted and probably should take losses. However the
charts show it's bounced very strongly off current levels and I'll take a risk.
Emerald Energy is
continuing its nice run up after it bounced off the bottom and if 200p can be
secured 220p would be opened up again.
My short in Derwent Valley
is looking well timed and as it continues to go down I continue to make money!
Ashtenne is moving up ahead
of results in a couple of days and I feel confident.
Rotork looks strong and
Carrs Milling looks like fighting
back. So all in all I'm doing OK considering the market is in a bad mood.
Thursday, 24th March
Most boys his age should be taking 7-8 ounces at a feed and he's still
only taking four. We feel a little less stressed about it now, we'll see how he
gets on over Easter.
Back to The Apprentice. Hilarious all the way through. Bull shitter Saira
is the star of the show - she has no idea what she's going to say just before
she says it.
We watched it with Elizabeth's Dad (visiting from Nottingham) and one of
Eliz's sisters (visiting from New York) and we had a great chat about it
afterwards.
Easter's a good time to evaluate what you're doing - most people reading
this site want to become independent, that's why you trade shares.
Emerald Energy is the best
bouncer - looks like it's formed a good bottom now and there's a good chance of
getting somewhere near and over 200p again. It's obviously risky but as risky
stocks go I reckon it could come good.
Roxboro looks strong - it
went ex dividend yesterday so that fall wasn't really a fall. My shorts in
Derwent and
Intercontinental are going OK if
not exactly dropping like a stone!
The fall in Carrs is
surprising me though there's one market maker in particular that is instrumental
in keeping it down - perhaps this mm is quietly shorting? If that's the case I
would expect a good and sharp bounce back up to 600p in a few days.
Otherwise a bit of a dull end to a poor week! I'm sure we all hope next
week will be a lot better and perhaps it'll show that those of us that kept
holding were right....
Wendesday, 23rd March
I guess after the tragic death of our daughter we are a bit more cautious
than most parents and so maybe we worry too much and to be honest I feel very
stressed right now.
Elizabeth's Dad is coming to visit from Nottingham tonight. We've guessed
why he's chosen a Wednesday night - he's a big fan of The Apprentice on BBC2 at
9pm tonight and as he lives on his own we reckon he wants to watch it with us!
However I don't feel the fear yet (maybe I'm a fool!). Again it's because
I'm very confident about the strength of the companies I've bought.
With the current falls going on, some are going to look very tempting buys
soon and I'll be adding to holds at this rate.
One new trade today. I've decided even though short-term I don't think the
markets are going to dive bomb much further it's time to get a few shorts going
as a bit of a hedge against my longs.
The first one I made last week is already going well -
Derwent Valley, nicely in profit
on that one.
I've not been hit that badly today - everything marked down a bit but
again not worried yet!
Carrs Milling's markdown
continues to bemuse me - I've re-read all the figures and I still make it
undervalued so sticking there! I guess in time it'll be interesting to see
whether I'm right to be stubbornly holding.
Oil plays Burren and
Sondex have been hit - I suppose
another point is that I have a big cushion of profits in all these companies.
PD Ports,
Keir and
Dart are even up a touch!
Good luck with any shares you hold and whether you decide to sell or keep
holding. My view is to ride out the storm.
Reader Kelvin writes: Hi
Robbie. Were you on Master Robbie at the weekend ? He won at the juicy odds of
20/1.
No, I wasn't bloody well on - I never back that horse when he wins at
juicy prices - wish I owned him!
We all cherish and want financial freedom. I don't think you can get it
all from trading. You must cut spending and also get new income streams.
Tuesday, 22nd March
He's going to be a small boy as he's in the bottom 10% weight wise (but
he's always the best-looking baby at the clinic so there!)
The doctor reckoned weight ranges were based on American bottle fed kids.
Well in that case I'm GLAD he's in the bottom range! He's bright, alert and
enjoys everything around him. Can't wait to take him swimming!
I decided the markets looked right dull this morning so I went off for a
long swim, gym and sauna.
Refreshed, I got back and discovered the market-makers had marked down
pretty every mid and small cap share. How fast was that!
My reaction on seeing something like this is.. well, not much. I've seen
it all before over the years. And there's no way I'm selling when there's a gun
to my head.
Now I would be worried if I was holding a bunch of dodgy loss-making tech
shares - but my lot are all good dividend paying profit-making companies all
offering good value.
I particularly thought the mark down of
Carrs Milling was a joke. So I
grabbed a few more (35
0) at 569.72p with around three grand floating around one of my ISA's. (I won't
include this for the website buys).
Telecom Plus was hit too -
I'd have dipped in there too but I have shed loads from free options at 82p and
120p so I'd be foolish to add any more.
Also hit by the markdowns are
Sondex, Chime and
Diploma. But all these are fine
companies and I don't feel the slightest bit worried.
Admiral is rising rapidly
after yesterday's great results - a spread bet I think I'll hang onto for a
while longer.
Dart is up a bit as is
Rotork.
Burren looks strong in this weak
market environment. A Dart director bought quite a few shares yesterday which is
an interesting move. Keir Group
looks strong and four figures beckon.
I feel investors are much wiser these days. Only a year ago I feel my
mailbox would have been packed with worried investors asking if a meltdown was
about to happen.
I did make one further trade today in what I'd term a fun buy for my new
high-risk SIPP. I've bought a share for around 2p with the hope of selling it at
4p! We'll see! Those of you on my e-mail list should have got details of that
latest SIPP buy early this morning.Monday, 21th March
However I still only have guarded optimism about the markets - my gut
feeling is once the election's over things could start to slide. But luckily
there is spread betting and cfd's so you can make money out of a falling market.
A reader writes: 'I wonder what you make of this one Robbie. Birmingham
Midshires are offering a bond, which pays a guaranteed 15% gross over 5 years.
Sounds like a good deal to me. What do you think?
I have no idea as it's not my scene - my personal view is all banks are
shsyters who are out to shaft us. (Birmingham Midshires being under the Halifix
BOS umbrella) But if any readers have sensible views on this do let me and the
reader know!
Taking of position sizing I'm weighing up a medium sized position in a
high risk share for my Sipp but there are too many shares on offer so I think
it's likely to dip a bit before it goes up. Waiting and ready to pounce!
Another rather quiet (boring!!!) day though this can happen close to the
holidays. Great results from Keir Group
and rather than take profits I'm tempted to increase my position here on any
weakness.
Am amazing H1 profit increase shows to me the shares have got further to
go than I thought and I've increased my price target to 1100p.
Diploma carries on rising
every day now and an early rise has been sustained. My 800p target figure is
getting closer all the time!
Burren is having a good day
but it needs to close above 535p to really steam ahead.
Roxboro continues to lift slowly
but surely and a close above 400p could open up 430p in time (at which point I
would probably take profits).
Looks like it should continue its steady progress and I'll carry on
holding my spread bet long rather than taking profits on results day
PD Ports I'm going to have
patience with but as I said when I bought I knew that and still feel at least
120p is achievable.
Interesting to see whether my short in
Derwent Valley does the business.
Although it's slightly higher than when I shorted the rise looks tentative and
I'm convinced this share is overvalued by at least 60p.
A few decent risers for the high risk Sipp today. I feel pretty happy with
it so far apart from one stock - but I feel that'll rise again.Friday, 18th March
However Diploma is still
rising every day on its way to what I think is a reasonable target of 800p.
Yesterday's short Derwent Valley
looks OK still. Although I'm down a bit on it, I think it'll tank at some stage.
It's weird having shorts and you're hoping to see red instead of blue.
Looked at it again and can't see me losing much but plenty to gain.
Otherwise there is literally nothing going on so I'm going to forget about
the markets, sunbathe and cheer on the outsiders at Cheltenham for the rest of
the day.
Thursday, 17th March
Yes. I realise if you live in Scotland it's probably cold and raining but
frankly, what do you expect if you live in Scotland?
So I've really been (nearly) The Naked Trader today. Out in the garden
with just a pair of boxers on. Lovely. This is what I quit the rat race for!
I remember stewing in a godforsaken office (think the one from the TV show
'The Office' but even shabbier) one summer thinking: 'I've gotta get outta
here!'
Even thought the people I worked with were nice enough who wants to trudge
into the same place year after year.
Read 'Escape' link above to see how I did it. And if you're prepared to
work hard and become a distributor for Telecom Plus selling cheap broadband,
mobile and energy you can start a brand new and repeat income. E-mail me for
details!
With the election underway it's worth getting loads of movies in. Because
the screens will be full of Blair (Arrrggggggghh!) Brown (Urgggghhhhhhhh!) and
Howard (yurrgghhhh!)
It's time there was an option on the voting form which you could tick. 'We
hate all of the above and do not want to vote for any of them'.
Little doubt this option would win a huge majority. Something our current
crop of penny share politicians should be ashamed about.
How come both parties try to bribe people like pensioners and those with
no money yet people like me who work hard to make money and employ people get no
bribes just higher taxes?
An email from reader Nick:
'A fantastic car sticker yesterday:
' DO NOT STEAL ' The Government does not like competition.
That's one of the benefits I'm finding from the high-risk ones. If you're
lucky and someone tips it, they can fly!
I think it's worth looking at the odd short so I've kicked off with one
this morning and shorted Derwent Valley
(DWY) for £10 a point at
1073.
It's down 42p as I write so I'm breaking even now bearing in mind the
spread. Even if it rises a little today I reckon it'll shift downwards for a
while.
I thought a disappointing statement the other day and results don't
justify recent rises. I would say there could be little support over the next
couple of weeks and I'm targeting 1000p.
Stop loss 1120p.
Sondex produced an
excellent trading update with revenues doubling. The market makers did their
usual mark up then mark down to try and get some shares. They ain't getting mine
until they're over 300p!
Keir,
Harvey Nash,
Diploma and
Roxboro are all a little up.
Recent buy PD Ports appears to be
stuck until a seller is cleared.Wendesday, 16th March
'Robbie, always lock your hotel room door!'
Yes, Kenny but sometimes these things happen before you can take safeguards!
The Budget! Look, Gordon Brown is responsible for raiding all our pension
plans and our Isa's by cutting tax credits.
And we still have to pay 'stamp duty' on shares - this is a ridiculous tax
that should be abolished immediately. Can you imagine if they tried to get away
with it in the USA? No chance!
It's all very well to raise 'stamp duty' to £120,000 for houses. But try
living in London! You can't even get a box room for that money. To have a decent
family home in London costs at least £450,000.
'With the exception of several of your notable successes, the small cap
market has seemed quite suddenly pretty erratic - eg. BCS, GYDO, EEN (crikey!),
even RPC - and in some cases somewhat subdued - eg. WDSW, DWN, BIE, HVN, GTG. I
have been in and out of TRX and RTD, but they also seem becalmed.
I just wondered whether other of your fans might have queried whether you
feel that the market may have topped, and that things could get quite nasty
after the election is out of the way (irrespective of whoever wins)?
I feel pretty confident because 90% of my share holds are excellent companies all making good
profits and all have room for growth. There will come a time this year to take
profits but I don't think that time is here yet!
Still finding buying high-risk shares for my Sipp intriguing! I'm feeling
my way and only buying small amounts, but lucky for me the one I bought the most
of has gone a lot higher. I bought at just over 14p and it's now over 19p to
sell! Maybe I'll double on it, I think so.
Yesterday's buy PD Ports is
one pee below where I bought it but as it's a safe steady stock a little down
and a little up is OK.
Get Group (talking of
patience!!) is making some headway and trying to get above the tricky 270 area.
This needs to be cleared to make more progress. I can't complain as I bought my
last lot at 184p!
An excellent performance by Gibbs
- it's ex dividend for 10p today so to be down only 1.5p is the equivalent to
being UP 8.5p!
Tuesday, 15th March
So when people phone the cafe now they get this message. 'Press 1 for the
money. Press 2 for the show. Press 3 if you want to get ready and press 4 to
go.'
Chas and Camilla's wedding won't be shown on TV. Thank heaven for small
mercies. I suppose it would have been difficult to get the camera into the
register office in Slough!
Don't be fooled by the guff in the press about capitals gains tax coming
in when you sell your main residence. This is a clever ruse the government uses
to put the wind up you.
'In my life, I thought I had a handle on the meaning of the word
'service.'
Then I heard the terms: Internal Revenue Service, Postal Service,
Telephone Service, Civil Service, Selective Service, City/County Public Service,
Customer Service, Service Stations.
I became confused about the word 'service.' This is not what I thought
'service' meant. Then today, I overheard two farmers talking and one of them
mentioned that he was having a bull over to 'service' a few of his cows.
SHAZAM! It suddenly all came into clear perspective. Now I understand what all
those 'service' agencies are doing to us.
No doubt about it, readers. We are all being shafted.
I've held a few 'boring' shares like this, for example, Fenner. But
sometimes it's the boring ones that produce the goods!
Basically this is a sound buy. Profits are on the up and the ports
businesses are doing well. PD recently moved up from AIM to a main market
listing which is another plus.
I also wonder whether at the current market cap it would make an
interesting takeover target for any number of the other port companies.
You can see institutions and others agree - there is some big buying going
on. It's not a stock liked or bought by smaller investors (except for me) and
I'm happy to row in with the big boys on this one. Target is
130p, stop loss
98p.
One sell - that's Dawson -
I sold my 3,734 shares for
182p this morning to bank a
profit of £37. It's simply been a
disappointment and I decided to sell not because I think there's anything wrong
with it - it's a sound company, it's just that it seems mired at current levels
and I'd rather use the cash elsewhere for the moment.
Generally what a dull day! Maybe all the market makers are spending the
week at Cheltenham but nothing much is moving.
A few small moves up from Diploma,
Broadcastle,
Emerald and
Keir but nothing to write home
about. Time to take the afternoon off to watch the racing I think!
Gibbs and Dandy goes ex
dividend for nearly 10p tomorrow so the shares should open down 10p - there is
no need to panic!Monday, 14th March
I'm glad she's here. Much as we love our little Christopher it helped us
to have a nice little break.
We booked in at a luxury hotel five minutes car journey away. So there we
were on Saturday night enjoying some 'relaxation time'.
Towards the end of this relaxation, there was a knock on the door and in
walked one of the maids to, I'm afraid, the sight of my 'flagpole'.
She screamed and so did I and she ran out (we've not seen her since).
Well, I expect she's never seen such a big flagpole.
The rest of the stay passed uneventfully - we had dinner via room service
and settle down to watch the movie 'Dodgeball' on the laptop. It was a bit crap
so 40 minutes later we switched if off and slept for 12 hours! That's better!
Then a nice morning at the hotel's leisure centre and back home in the
afternoon to see our lovely boy who had been very well cared for.
Also going well is my last buy
Chime, another couple of institutional buys is what I'm hoping for here
to drive it up a bit more. Get Group,
Carrs Milling and
Burren are all nicely in the
blue.
On the disappointing side today is
Emerald - but it still holds above my buying price so I'm holding on - it
could easily start to race higher again. A bit disappointed that
Broadcastle has slipped under
100p.
Friday, 11th March
I've nothing against giving to charity but I'd far rather give to someone
directly like £20 to the Big Issue salesman.
Look, if I sound grumpy it's because our lovely son kept us up most of the
night. The poor lad is teething - he nearly chewed my finger off at 3am. But
he's so gorgeous I don't mind that I feel so tired.
Going back to the TV show Dragons Den, my webmaster Dale tells me those
car seat covers for dogs, the ones the that the Dragons rejected are now on sale
in Aldi for £3.99! Looks like the dragons missed out on that one !
Otherwise I'm quite happy with my ventures so far. One I bought the other
day is going quite nicely.
A pretty dull day on the markets with nothing much to get excited about
after yesterday's goings on. Maybe the market makers have all got a day off.
No real stars today. But Diploma
looks strong now and I can see a run up to 800p.
Keir continues a good run
Burren Energy is having a
crazy time today - not surprising given its recent run. I think I'll keep
holding! Chime holds well at
higher levels after results and it should take off again.
Also holding well after good runs are
Sondex and
Isotron.
Emerald is having a volatile time
but I reckon I bought my shares at the bottom of the range.
Harvey Nash and
Telecom Plus continue to
disappoint and it's tempting to flog them off for a bit and move money into
quicker movers. Dart's becoming a
bit boring but it could be on the move again.
Otherwise I might just as well have the day off! I can't see anything
that's worth buying or getting excited about. So there!
Thursday, 10th March
But look he's worth it. Even in the darkest hours before dawn we'd do anything for the bonny boy. (I wrote horny boy there by mistake - I think I was thinking about his dad there!)
Another great Apprentice! What a bunch of losers but it makes it so interesting to watch. And that Adele! Boy has she got BIG problems! Sir Alan seemed a bit irritated that she quit before he could fire her and I don't blame him !
I started off the conversation with this - the following replies are from
other posters:
I remember one famous chartist who when the FTSE was falling predicted it
was going to go to 1,800! And the same chartist now tells me it's going to
6,000!'
dsb104 - 10 Mar'05 - 11:11 - 1884 of 1885 (premium)
TNT,
'I remember the same chartist saying that about 2 years ago. The same
chartist recently predicted that VOD would go to £2 and Tesco £4.67.
David
SamG99 - 10 Mar'05 - 11:18 - 1885 of 1885 (premium)
'TNT - I couldn't agree more about the FTSE and chartists. The same
applies to most of the shares I trade.
As I've said before, about 1% of these types of predictions come true, and
boy, when they get it right they won't let you forget it!
My favourite recent example is a share I trade quite frequently, CWK,
which, as I've said before, is predicted to reach £10.09 by the end of the year.
Well, we shall see. I'll keep updating on this. It's currently 594p, and I'm
short from 610p earlier today.
I usually find as long as I'm confident about the company I'm holding for
the medium term not to get panicked by a sudden huge drop especially when it
happens early. Because the market-makers are out for a profit. And how best to
get it? Simple!
Drop the price savagely and get the sellers. Buy in the shares cheaply and
then next move? Easy! Start rising the price to tempt buyers. Good game isn't
it! This happens a lot on the day of a reasonable or good set of results.
For example, both Broadcastle
and Gibbs and Dandy came in with
excellent figures with both still looking undervalued given the statements.
However both were marked down. Gibbs was marked down savagely but then
raised back quickly. An interesting comment from the big cheese:
'Although the industry is consolidating, we strongly believe that there
remains a place in the market for a good regional independent builders merchant
providing excellent service to customers.'
Is this politician speak for: 'Looks like there'll be a bid for us soon
which is fantastic and I'll be in the money...'?
I think both Gibbs and Broadcastle are great holds and I'm confident both
share prices will increase this year. In the end the clue is always a
progressive and increasing dividend policy.
Lots of other things going on with companies in the portfolio. After some
tremendous rises the market-makers heavily marked down
Carrs only to rise again! But
this is a great long-term hold and again I see no reason yet to take profits.
What can I say about Isotron?
Bought in November for 458p they have risen dramatically again today to 635p and
I wondering whether I'll be doubling my money on this one within six months
because it does open up the the prospect of a 900p target.
Yesterday's buy Chime is
dinging along merrily and is up nicely from my buying price with what looks like
some big institutional buying yesterday. I feel confident about my 50p price
target. And there were a few big buys at the current 37p price which looks
bullish.
Rotork looks really
exciting now as it breaks above previous highs. This one could shift sharply
higher now. Sondex holds well at
new high levels. Some big buyers coming in today I see.
My buy in the placing of TV
Commerce is now in profit (I bought £12,000 worth in the placing at
6p). So just a move to a sell price of 7p will give me a 15% profit. But I think
the shares will get to the 9-10p area this year - a new and interesting deal
with Stream was announced today.
Wendesday, 9th March
So I waited a bit and watched level 2 just in case market-makers dropped their prices after some very good results announced yesterday. Then I popped round to the cafe to my trading desk there to enjoy a quiet coffee.
I then saw a couple of very large trades going through and with only one market-maker offering 32p left I decided to dive in.
At that point a harassed member of staff dashed into the office declaring the place was overrun by ladies who wanted coffees before their bridge club tournament over the road started at 10am.
So next thing I knew I was out there dealing with what seemed like hundreds of mature ladies all wanting coffee and cakes.
Half an hour later I got back to the office to discover Chime had gone up in my absence! it was going up fast and I had to make a quick decision as to whether to chase the shares or not.
As I think after yesterday's statement they look well undervalued I got cracking and managed to get 20,000 shares at 33.5p and 10,000 at 33.416.
I'm glad I chased them because as I write they've gone to 34.5-35. Ooops, just fallen back to 33-34.5p. There's a lot of trading in the shares today and I'm not surprised!
Why was I interested? This is a great recovery play. The company has swung into a good profit declared a dividend, and has reduced its debt considerably.
This morning I also picked up some more of a high risk share for my new high risk SIPP which has already done well for me and I bought some more on a dip.
What a great day in the markets for the portfolio yesterday afternoon and
today! Late yesterday Isotron
leapt another 21p and there is still loads to come.
Sondex also spiralled up 10p and
is up again today.
Broadcastle surprised by
rocketing up nearly 5p to close well above 100p making the shares look very
bullish now.
Tuesday, 8th March
Sometimes you just have to get away and relax and that's when I spend!
Great meals, room service, whatever, we had it. Christopher got to see his Irish
granny and one of Elizabeth's sisters.
He was great on the way over but got upset on the plane for the last half
hour of the journey and it was difficult for him to settle down last night, but
he's happier today. I suspect we will probably avoid planes for the rest of the
year and holiday in the UK!
He certainly made people smile wherever he went - because he is hilarious
and smiles at everyone which is great.
Cork looks like a thriving and growing city. I'm not absolutely sure I'd
go there and visit if it wasn't for family living there though but it's nice
enough.
We were watching a drama on ITV on the hotel's system on Sunday night and
suddenly the channel starting changing to 'Xplicit TV' where a preview of 'Randy
Housewives' was being shown! This carried on for about three minutes until
hastily the Sky Menu came on and ITV was restored.
I suspect reception was getting quite a few calls and an unfortunate
employee who was hoping to watch some porn quietly on a spare channel made a
huge mistake!
I've been investigating the child trust funds and some fab news: you CAN
have a self-select plan and choose your own shares for the fund. Comdirect are
going to do it for £12.50 a deal and no other charges!
Like an ISA you can't include AIM or Ofex shares. But this is great news
and will enable me to buy shares for Christopher!
So it looks like there will be another feature coming soon to this site:
how I manage a child trust fund! And if you have a youngster now you know how to
go ahead and deal for your child.
Well, I did it! I didn't look at the market at all on Friday or yesterday
so I was rather nervous last night when we got back. Had my shares crumbled? Was
there a market crash?
I was mighty relieved to see there were no disasters and that in fact most
of my lot had gone up! More on that in a minute.
My high risk SIPP shares also did pretty well with one in particular
bouncing higher. I'm quite pleased with the shares picked so far - I think they
all have great potential and I know I have to be sanguine about the volatility.
Isotron is rocketing as it
deserves too and again there is so much more to come! Also going well is
Roxborough and also
Rotork which is looking exciting
on the edge of a big breakout.
Diploma is heading back up
and the close over 700p looks good. Dart,
RPC and
Broadcastle are all performing
well.
On the disappointing side, Wyndenam,
Harvey Nash and
Ashtenne all need a good kicking.
Thursday, 03rd March 2005
I'm off with Christopher to Ireland for the weekend so while this is the
last update for this week. I'm back Monday lunchtime but the next site update
will be on Tuesday! You can still e-mail me but you won't get a reply till
Tuesday.
So please try hard not to miss me on Friday and Monday. I know lunchtimes
just won't be the same.... You'll have to find something else to do instead. Go
to the pub or something.
We'll be those people on the plane that you want to avoid. Oh no, a couple
with a screaming baby! Are they coming to sit next to us? Oh no! They are!!
Never mind, we have a plan which mainly involves Elizabeth breast feeding
him during the whole flight! Canny, eh?
We're booked into a £300 a night hotel so it should be good. Christopher
will get to meet one of his grannies and some new doting relatives. Will report
back on Tuesday!
Great Apprentice last night. God that woman Adele is annoying! Full of
management bullcrap and employing one of the team as a PA! What a joke! I can
hardly believe Alan didn't fire her - a mistake I think.
Here's Ken (who lives in Malaga):
'Re last nights programme, I thought Sugar made three main mistakes. Firstly, he
put that silly woman (Adele)? in charge of a team.
Personally, I wouldn't work for either woman or for Sugar!! I don't think
he is a man who asks for or listens to advice. I really enjoy your site, and
find the content very informative and interesting.
I agree Ken. Especially the last bit about how my content is interesting!
Remember the programme Show Me The Money! Those were the days weren't
they. I was one of many desperately hoping one of my rubbish penny shares would
get a mention so it would go up 30% in two minutes enabling me to get out!
In retrospect the programme was hilarious - full of bent tipsters trying
to push up share prices. And the tips were hilarious too thinking back. All
kinds of rubbish companies were tipped!
I talk about this now because of this great mail from reader
Richard:
'I was interested in Ian's comments on share names. In 1999 and 2000 I
used to watch 'Show me the money' on Channel 4 with Tom Winnifroth.
One day Reflec (REF) was the subjectas they had just found a way to make
reflective paint which could be used for road signs and in the theatre,
indecently their shares leapt from under
4p to 38p in a very short time only to drop below 5p within a year. (check the
charts).
I had held Metal Bulletin for some time with very little movement when
they were tipped on the programme, I didn't have a computer in those days but I
rang for a quote 20 minutes later and found that had risen 15% so I sold them,
they also dropped afterwards.
It was due purely to supply and demand and I think the programme was hoisted by
its own petard!
Thanks Richard, brings back memories. What days they were! My favourite
one in those crazy days was medi@invest. I bought at 3p and the shares went all
the way to £1!
Any company that mentioned it was going to set up a web page doubled or
trebled! All a tipster had to do was mention 'internet' and the price would
soar!
Talking of crazy shares one of my high risk shares for my new-look SIPP
has gone up over ten per cent on a good statement so I'm pleased with that.
I've also bought a brand new risky one for my new high-risk sipp - it's
under 3p and I think it could double this year.
Dignity gets the star award
- up over 11p. I've made quite a few thousand pounds out of this one since it
launched on the market last year. I've been in it most of the time taking
profits along the way.
Also going well another superb at least medium-termer
Keir. A sleep at night share that
I think will carry on being re-rated up to 1000p.
Istotron is also on the way
up and should continue its re-rating after results. I feel there is another
100p-200p rise possible here.
Emerald has been an up and
down ride - not surprising as short-term traders are bucking it up and down -
I'm ignoring the volatility and holding!
Burren still can't get
through the 535p area but it will at some point to open up 580p. Some rises too
for Dawson ( a bit disappointing
so far) and Dart.
Vanco is stuck after the
great news about BA. Still, it does often go quiet and then rises strongly.
Past Commentaries
Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005
Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December
Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004
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