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I'm feeling a bit smug today,
Elizabeth's Dad was down for a day to see the lovely Christopher and we played
scrabble.
On the last go of the game I scored a massive 96 on a triple word score
plus seven letters with Aniseeds!
How satisfying is that? Nearly as satisfying as buying a share which
actually bloody well goes up!
I could be about to launch a new business, the next door shop to my cafe
is about to become vacant on a cheap rent.
I'm considering expanding the cafe to launch a same brand baby cafe doing
fresh purees and baby food along with baby toys and products.
There's loads of posh ladies with
babies round here. It would also work as a spill over when we're busy in the
main cafe.
So I'm about to do a costing - I'll keep you all in touch with this as it
goes and take you through my thought processes when it comes to starting a new
business.
I know many of you are interested in your own businesses so I will over
the next few weeks let you know how I costed it, the kind of profit I hope to
make, etc etc.
I hope you will find it very
interesting! And being able to put my thoughts on paper will help me too!
As always, my views are.. to enjoy a good boss free lifestyle, get those
different income streams going!
I have taken on board what Marcel Link says: 80 to 90% of traders go bust
in the first year. Everyone needs to serve an 'apprenticeship' for 3 to 5 years.
Be prepared to spend at least £25,000 on 'tuition' Have a Money Management Plan
And Dr Elder says: Don't start with less than £10000, preferably £25000,
Stresses the need for Money Management
There is obviously an awful lot more in the books but everyone says '
don't expect to make a fortune on the Stock Market'. Your advice ' to get
alternative income first' is probably sound.
Nice mail Terry.
So yet another busy day trading but this
time I've been buying rather than selling! As I've been saying at some point
some value companies will fall to prices that are simply too good to ignore and
at the very least worth a short-term trade.
So I've topped up in two of my favourite companies Carrs Milling and Dart.
I've been watching Dart fall for a while and been scratching my head. But I did
sell a few at 313 because I didn't feel like fighting the market.
But H1 profits came in at £11m yet the company's market cap has fallen to only just over £100m. This makes little sense.
Yesterday a kindly reader mailed me one of the reasons.. get this.. a tipster who looks at other people's tips.. tipped it as a sell!
And for
no reason whatsoever as far as I can tell.. apart from the fact it's been going
down. This appears to have scared out some small investors.
The bloke writing the mail also says if he could have picked a sell at the
top of the market he's be in the Bahamas and not working for a living. Kind of
says it all and I disagree with him. There have been some big buys today
including one of 200,000 shares.
Dart (DTG) really looks big
value at under 300p and I bought a new lot of shares at the same price as the
old lot! I bought 2,000 shares at
296p. Target
330p, stop
270p.
Another one that has come down a bit is
Carrs Milling (CRM) and I topped
up my previous buy at 380p with a new buy today of
1,000 shares at
504.5p. Target
550p, stop
480p
Again, despite a rise from the 300s, it still looks more fairly valued at
600p and I feel this is a great point to top up and buy some more.
Elsewhere a really good day with some excellent risers.
Gibbs continues its renaissance
with another good rise.
Costain is looking strong
again as it tries to hit and get above 50p again. My recent top up in
Burren is looking better and
better as it heads up again towards a fiver.
Kier,
Hitachi,
Erinaceous,
Roxboro, and
Cattles are among my risers today
putting me into profits.
I'm such a baby myself! Every time I
get Christopher a new toy I can't wait to get it home, rip open the packaging
and, er play with it myself!
A great new one last night, a kind of music system with a dancing monkey.
Boy, we had fun with that this morning. (The fun lasted till the market opened
anyway!)
Celebrity Love Island! Eeeeekkk!! Is this what we've really come down to
and can this be possibly the lowest of the low ever on TV?
I watched a bit of it and it's quite shockingly bad. Who the hell cares
which attention seeking bod gets off with another one.
And 'love'! You must be joking! The
only people they will ever love is themselves.... And it's on for another five
weeks!
ITV executives may be surprised but if they spent the money on a decent
drama, you never know, they might find they'd get a big audience.
Where have the TV shows gone for people with intelligence? There are
hardly any left. The TV execs are nearly all idiots who think TV is for idiots
and all we want to see are celebrities with their clothes off. Ah, thanks I feel
better now.
You might think I'm a hypocrite as I watch Big Brother - but do remember I
look on it more as a money-making enterprise than entertainment.
So I've been on a selling spree in the last 24 hours taking some big profits and some big losses!
I feel it's the right time to reduce
positions and have less exposure to the market upside and try and have a more
balanced long-short portfolio for this year.
I sold my 7,000
Regus late yesterday for
97.28p to take a small loss of
£86. As I said at the time of
buying this was a complete short-term gamble with a very tight stop loss which I
activated the moment the gamble looked like being a loser.
I believe it was the right thing to
do to stick to my plan even though it's probably likely as it's a day trader
share that it could shoot up again.
I also sold HVN for
51.51 to take a loss of
£1,049 - this was a gamble that
simply went wrong and I should have sold much earlier - it looks a bargain, and
feels like a bargain but I've got to give up fighting the market on this one as
the downwards pressure keeps on coming.
I was going to sell at 53.5 earlier but the market-makers seemed to want the shares so I didn't go for it!
I'm
guessing at some point there will be an almighty rally in these and maybe I'll
be there....but I am aware of taking emotion out of it (like these shares 'owe'
me!)
And another sale - a good profit of
£1,198 taken in
Sondex by selling the shares
bought at 160p for 197p. (Real trade 4,388 shares).
Shame in
a way as I could have sold much higher but still it's a decent profit taken.
It's been a great share for me as I also took decent profits in this from a
previous buy a few days ago.
I'll wait till results next week and I may get back in, especially if it
proves weak in the run up to results.
I also sold 2,800
NRG at
193p - to take a profit of
£180. My reasoning is the shares
have gone to sleep for a bit and there may not be any action until August when
results are due and I'll use the money elsewhere. I'm still holding on to a few
of the shares as I don't expect them to go down much.
All that activity leaves a profit for the site of
£243.. well I suppose better than
a slap round the head with a cold kipper.
Elsewhere Burren is trying
hard to get back up towards the 500 level - I think my recent top-up looked
well-timed but we'll see.
Emerald
does need to get above that 150p level to make me feel a bit safer regarding my
recent top up there! Gibbs is on
the comeback trail, really glad I let that one come back.
Cattles remains on my
probably should sell list. The only reason I'm hanging on is that last time the
share got into the low 280's it bounced strongly and rapidly.
Otherwise it's all rather quiet. There are some real bargains hovering
into view right now with some shares due to lack of buying slipping to some real
bargain basement levels.
I hope to pick some up at what looks like cracking prices. Worth being patient though and get the right price.
The market seems to be trying hard to perk
up but it still seems to be a bit of a struggle - and the more the struggle goes
on the more likely it is there could be big downside to come. I still feel very
wary. Also going higher are
VP,
Costain (looking strong at the
moment) , Dart,
Gibbs,
Croda and
Sondex.
I got a shock reading the papers over
the weekend with news of a possible bid for Scottish Radio along with results on
Thursday. I thought 'Bloody great, and I've
gone short'! I decided to get out fast. It's just too risky to hold a share
that's a bid target. I couldn't get the 850 sadly due to
the spread firm's spread but I did end up getting out at
858 to take a surprising profit
of £80. With the market changing it could be
time to change strategy and do some shorter-term trading. I'm thinking about it. Regus
I'm not sure about as it's a short-term trade so my finger is straying towards
pressing the sell button and taking a small profit. The results are likely to be good and
I might buy more on any further weakness.
Cattles is still in the doghouse
and I'll have to take a loss if it weakens further.
Apologies for the site not being
updated till very late Wednesday. This was due to server problems. All those on my e-mail list should have got the
update though. It's been sorted now so it shouldn't happen again (or at least
not for a while!). Not having had much sleep since November last year
tends to make one feel a bit irritated sometimes! Onto the markets.
Hurrah! Christopher slept through the
night! Started at 7pm and woke at 6.30am! Let the bells ring out! We got some
sleep! What I
want to know is how do I find out when a share will be floated ? And is there a
way to 'New
issues are lost on me, unless you have an interest in the company that's being
floated. 1. Only buy when at least £20m is being
raised.
Onto the markets: I continue with my cautious stance and reduced my
holding in Sondex yesterday
afternoon, selling 2,500 shares
at 230p that I bought at 204p to
take a profit of a very nice £700.
Another two buys today - am I nuts? Time will tell! More shortly. We went to the doc's
with Christopher this morning.
Onto the markets. A pretty good day today (makes a change from the last
dire two weeks). I hope you as well as me are making a few quid today. Then they grab those shares from stop
loss sellers on the cheap, start pushing the price up and sell them on higher.
Nice work, huh? Sometimes they have a big buy order
and push the price down steadily to panic investors and get the shares. Could be
the case here though I'm only guessing. Even given these kinds of companies
are usually on lower ratings the last report showed a massive rise in H1
profits. Looks a goodie. Yum yum! I must say I feel very irritated that
they could put out a bullish statement and then just a few weeks later put out a
completely different story! I kept the last small few just in case buyers waded
in but it didn't happen. If you're buying a company that has
put out bullish reports and then comes out with a profits warning there is no
point beating yourself up over it. This will happen from time to time
and you have to take it on the chin. I'll be very interested to read the results
statement - could be an interesting one for later in the year when the exact
figures are in. Cattles
is moving up strongly and I'm hoping I bought at the bottom. Yesterday's buy
Erinaceous is going well and
rising slowly every day. Burren
too is having a really good day and it's a very nice firm move above 500p today
- it looks likely the next stop will again be that sticky 535 area.
Ah, a quiet weekend after the last two frantic ones although a busy trading start to
Monday - more on that in a minute. Andy
must go the States ( or France or Germany). Anywhere but the UK. We always found
that the States France and Germany were geared up for the family, especially
babies and young children. They
welcome them, unlike the UK where you are just frowned on for bringing a child
into a cafe etc. Anyway, mine are grown up and pretty much have flown the nest
now so maybe it is better in the UK. I doubt it ' If I am
away for a few days without internet access and I'm a bit unsure of a share I
may set a stop loss, but with the following caveat in mind. Some time ago I set
a stop loss of 15p under my purchase price of 100p. I saw
all this a few days later when I returned (by which time they had hit 115p).
True, I got the dividend, but I would have had it anyway with cream on top.
Blimey, a very busy Monday morning for me - two sells and a buy!
Well, that's busy for me - I'm sure to day traders three trades in a day is a
mere bagatelle (whatever a bagatelle is - is that like a baguette?) I would now look for the price to
head back to the 50-52 area at which point it'll become a buy again and I expect
to be in and out of Windsor and use it as a trading stock for a long time to
come. As I write it looks like I made the right decision as the shares have now
tumbled to 55p. Re Diploma, the same comments as
Windsor really. A good set of results but yet again at these levels, it's all
pretty much priced in and I would be watching and waiting to buy back a bit
lower. All that leads to a profit of
£1,254 for the site. It's the usual dilemma! Take a loss
on the chin now or hold because one judges they are close to a bottom. Dilemmas,
dilemmas.
Bit tired today? Did you stay up? I managed till just after midnight and woke up
this morning to discover the exit poll was spot on. Hidden
and stealth taxes, supposed 'winning' scratch cards preying on the elderly.
'Stamp duty' on share purchases. The over -complicated tax regime. 30mph speed
limits at 3am. I could go on but you know what I mean! What a
lovely chap he is, even though mummy is getting fed up with our pushing all her
beauty products off the bathroom shelves game. We have
a 9 month old baby girl and are on a tremendous learning curve. Following your
recent 'Holiday' experience (which we can completely relate to). We are
now considering whether flying to the states in July is really the practical
thing to do? May be we should be swapping New England for New Brighton? Onto the markets and one buy to
report made yesterday afternoon in
Cattles (CTT). I bought 3,000
shares at 304.75p. Stop loss
290p, target
330p. The company says 2005 should be a year of growth and
the shares look very cheap after coming back to 300p from over 400p recently. Some good buying appears to be coming in this
morning between 305 and 306p. My new buy of Cattles brings me to a letter from
Francis:
Hmm, well, we're not sure that was
really a holiday! Christopher seemed very glad to be home and in the end the
long journey there and back was stressful for all of us. A profits warning from
Get Group, about the last company
I hold I expected one from. Only a few weeks ago it put out a confident trading
statement (in fact all recent statements have been very bullish) and suddenly
out of the blue it's not going to meet market forecasts for the full year though
H1 trading is fine. Will it make less than £5m in the
full year? £4m? £3m? It all makes rather a big difference to the valuation and
I'm now very confused. The market hates uncertainty and this statement really
takes the biscuit in vagueness. The initial sell off seemed an
overreaction but I knew right away it was time to cut my stake. I waited for it
to rise and then sold shares in small lots at between 188 and 190.15 to cut my
holding back to 2,000 from 5,000 shares. So I'm going to mark this down as a
loss of £1,770 for the site by
marking this down as a sell of 3,000
shares at an average 189p.
For the moment I'll keep hold of the
2,000 at 184. I'm going to hang on to some because on the plus side if profits
are only going to come down a million the shares would still be worth 230-250.
Oh well, at least I got more than 10p worth of dividends.
That's it - we've had enough and
we're off on holiday - the next update of the site will be on Wednesday - try
not to miss me too much on Tuesday! My view
on the markets is - when you lose, figure out what you did wrong and try not to
make the same mistake again. Big
mistake! I was catching the falling knife - something I never do normally. Just
shows when the markets turn against you it makes a monkey out of everyone! Glad we're not trying to make £70 per
day on them! Then probably Saira will win next week to make it complete crap all
round! Have a great break with the family.'
Great-looking weather forecast for
the Bank Holiday weekend (that's if they are right!). I'm really looking
forwards to a great break in Poole and we'll show Christopher the sea for the
first time. Both
really only wanted TV exposure and the reality of working for Amstrad would have
seen them both run for the hills within a few months. Tim looks the easy winner
here as Saira is fairly obviously a complete pain in the bum. I would
guess prices are down at least 5% over the last 6 months. A similar house to
mine that I sold for £550,000 in July last year is on offer at £485,000! I'm
very happy to be renting and expect house prices to fall for at least another
year. A bit of a strange market today -
lots of ups and downs rather than ups or downs if you see what I mean. Looks like they are in the middle of
a re-rating which as I suggested earlier in the week should take them to at
least 300p. Interesting to see whether the market
bounces from here and whether I should then close these out for profits for the
moment. Wish I knew!
That's it - we've booked a holiday in
Poole for this BH weekend - we're leaving on Sunday and coming back Tuesday, so
sadly, folks there'll be no update on Tuesday. Boo Hoo! I've hired a car as I
have only a two seater BMW. Not much good for Christopher is it? I think the current portfolio is very
strong and quite defensive - all of them make money and have strong businesses
which should prosper. Yesterday's other buy
Chime is unchanged which is good
news on a day like this. I even have one going up!
Isotron!
Christopher and I have a great new game - knock all mummy's hair products off the shelves in
the bathroom. (Just don't tell her about it!). I can tell already he's going to
be a naughty boy (like his father). Couldn't help chuckling, when I
summoned my rickshawallah to stop at a cyber cafe, I ogged onto the lead page of
your site to be greeted by your beaming face, several of the locals swore blind,
that you were that movie hunk Van Diesel! The
local custom is to haggle, my uncle obtained that same book after 5 minutes of '
making for the door' for 40 rupees ( under 50p)! Haggling is a part & parcel of life,
as seems to be selling. Indians will sell anything to anyone at anytime! A glance
at a shop window in a shoe shop, & the retailer was out like a jiffy... 'come
inside... have a good look ..no harm in looking... no need to buy anything',
meantime he'd summoned his assistants to serve us with cold drinks , whilst we
browsed. They
must have opened 20 boxes for the wife, despite our inclination not to
buy...eventually the good lady was tempted & I put my haggling skills to the
fore. All done
in a pleasant non threatening atmosphere, where the customer was made to feel
the most important person in the world, more of a guest than a shopper! I must
try this out at my local Clarks... wonder if they'll give me cold drinks? I think
my only hope is 'long term primary trends' and perhaps 1 or 2 'position trades'
a year. The short term stuff just pisses me off and makes my obese brokers just
fatter. I feel my small cap portfolio is
strong but I need some exposure to what I think will be a bad year for the FTSE
- I think it'll end the year in the low 4000's. I think it's only a matter of time
before the share gets a deserved re-rating to 300p. I've had a spreadbet long in
this for quite a while and I've added a buy in the market as well of
2,500 shares at
249p. Target
300p. Stop loss
220p. So I added another
20,000 shares at
32.24p. Stop loss
27p, target
36p. I believe there's a ten per
cent profit likely here.
That was
a good fun weekend! My speech and hosting at the wedding went well and the jokes
got a laugh (phew!).
A couple of replies to
Sohail's e-mail regarding losing
5 grand on the markets after making money and how he can
Friday's advice to Sohail is a perfect example.
Hopefully he will heed your advice and act accordingly. You have come out with
some gems in the past and anyone ignoring your advice does so at their peril.
Thanks to you I am still in the market. I was tempted to
get out last week when we had a few bad days with the FTSE and Dow Jones as I
didn't want to lose everything I had clawed back. I thought the market was
crashing again - that is until I read your comments for the day on panic
selling.
Two years ago I was £40,000 down but over the years I
have nearly regained it and I sure as hell do not want to allow it to drop to
those levels again. I would rather get out and bank it than have to wait another
couple of years without any gains.
Obviously losses are a part of trading but loosing money
intelligently by only loosing a small amount of it is the most fundamental
lesson to be properly learnt.
Get that bit right and the rest tends to fall into
place. Hope your speech at your friend's wedding goes well and your jokes get a
laugh.
I also looked at the market cap against profits and the
shares looked about fair value. With investments likely to hold back profits
this year it really didn't look worth holding the shares.
I decided I was a bit nervous about this statement and
my experience told me to sell if one or two of the mm's started to move down but
hold if they started moving up.
As I write the shares have gone to 62p to buy - and I
have literally just pressed the buy button and bought
10,000 at
62p!
They are oversold and I feel a ten per cent bounce is
likely with not much risk! Target 70p,
stop 58p.
Some who bought in at 53 have obviously taken profits
early - but these profits must be very small after costs. I'm waiting for a bit
more than this!'
We went out for an early meal last night
and took Christopher with us. He was wide eyed and enjoyed looking at
everything. We were
soon surrounded by loads of Chelsea and Arsenal supporters eating before the
game. He's still waking up quite a lot overnight so sleep is still a luxury!
Onto the markets and a new trade today. I've been waiting to get on
this one for a bit - I nearly took the 51.5 on offer yesterday but greedily
hoped for a bit more of a drop.
It didn't happen and I decided to take a chance and get in at a
slightly higher price than I'd hoped.
Fair value for the shares should be around 65-70 which
was achieved recently until profit takers moved in.
We'll see! In any event it's a good safe hold in the
event of a market downturn. The chart also shows a lot of support in this area
so I feel it's unlikely I'll need to use the stop loss.
Of course I could easily be selling at the bottom and I
have kept open a spread bet position I have in this one. I'd be tempted to get
back in at a lower price if it does move lower.
Well, that was a bizarre experience
on the radio yesterday! The cafe was nominated by some listeners to the London
radio station as their favourite so they wanted to interview me.. so I was ready
to go on to say how fantastic the place is!
I'm thinking of buying bucket loads soon for what I
believe is a certain 15% - I will let you all know if I do buy in and what the
share is in the next few days.. watch this space!!
You can hear me on the radio this
afternoon - well, you can if you live in London! My cafe has been nominated as
one of the best in London so I'm chatting on the phone about what makes a good
cafe. So I should be on LBC Radio (97.3FM) between 5 and half five this
afternoon.
That was a nice peaceful Sunday. We
took Christopher up to Hampstead to see my older sister. Boy, does she really
know how to make money. One
recent one included: 'when I go to lapdancing clubs please make sure the
tabloids don't get to hear about it!'
So it's a red day - what do you do? Panic? Run for the hills? As I said
at the beginning of the year it always looked like it was going to be tough to
make money this year. There will be opportunities but it's a year to tread
warily.
Today there's an e-mail saying there are some bull arguments and bear
ones as well! What sort of 'advice' is this - no wonder there aren't any rich
chartists!
I've got to have a holiday! I was so
tired yesterday all I wanted to do was sleep. Of course it probably has
something to do with my lovely little boy waking up all the time! As a result everyone is buying the
dollar and Gold has now fallen below $425 per ounce. There is a price void
between 1.8800 and 1.8690 created by a prior momentum move upwards, so I don't
expect any appreciable support until 1.8690 where I have a limit order.
Currently trading at 1.8780 and
opened this morning at 1.8866. Once it broke below 1.8800 and then Gold took a
real fall I increased my normal size a little.' I have some experience of trading but
like many others I lost a packet on the technology bubble bust. My ambitions are I believe quite
modest - I wish to make say £75/per day. but where do I begin how do I know
which stock to choose - I appreciate there are winners and losers but a winner
now and again would be helpful.' But I do feel strongly he should stay
out of the markets - he may 'only' want £75 a day. But what he must realise is
he may LOSE £75 a day. Any views welcome! But it still looks to me like a good
hold for the time being unless it goes below my buying price which has proved
excellent support in the past. It's debatable whether I should sell
Chime as it's just below stop loss levels but I'm loath to sell on a two point
spread and fundamentally it still looks fine. Robbie Burns has been trading successfully for over 7 years, having spent 1996 to 2001 as finance and general editor for Sky TV's text services. Robbie has started this commentary page on Sky and Channel 5 text in 2000 and ran it until summer 2002, during which time he made profits of more than £50,000, even during the bear market from 2001. Robbie now runs an independent cafe and catering business, but trades more or less full time. He uses ISA's and PEP's to avoid tax liabilities and runs his own pension fund in a SIPP. Visit his site here
But having said all that there's no doubt there are some bargains
appearing and there could be some short-term bounces soon.
Talking of bounces a few bouncing a bit higher today and those include
Emerald (really needs a lift
through 150 to convince).
Burren produced another
decent drilling report - I wonder whether it'll get stuck in a 470-490 trading
range for a bit? Kier made a good
advance yesterday afternoon.
Remaining in the doghouse are
Chime, Cattles and
Harvey Nash. The short portfolio
is doing OK with Whitbread still
the star of the show.
Monday 16th May
I thought the shares would probably open up 30/40 points this morning and
I'd have to take a loss.
Well, what a surprise I got when they opened down at 850p! I thanked my
lucky stars and got out fast which is just as well as by 10am they were up 20p.
A fairly quiet start to the week - I'm sure like many of you I hesitate to
buy anything that looks value.
A few goodies and a few baddies. The goodies include my
Whitbread short which is really
doing well, it's pretty much at my target price but I'm letting it run a bit
longer.
Costain looks to be heading
back up. My top-up in Burren
looks a good move for the moment with the shares soaring as I write.
Erinaceous had a strong
finish on Friday with a good rise though it's not followed through today.
Also in the good department and rising today are
Hitachi,
Keir,
Emerald and
Dignity (which is going very
nicely now).
In the bad department are Dart,
down on low volume today though it looks like it could be a good buying
opportunity. They've bought another 2 planes, still looks like a well-run
company.
Also Sondex is having a bad
day with results out next week. However as I unloaded some at a profit last week
I feel a bit more relaxed.
Thursday 12th May
Thanks to those of you who e-mailed me fearing something terrible had
happened - thankfully no!
Christopher slept through the night for the second time in a row which has
put me in a much better mood.
He's now now enjoying carrots, sweet potato and are half an avocado
yesterday, clever boy!
Were any of you long of Lastminute.com? Lucky swines!! (or clever swines!).
Why Expedia wants to buy it at such an outrageous price is beyond me. They must
be nuts. I wouldn't have paid more than 75p a share personally.
A dip in the postbag. A reader writes: 'How far do you think house prices will
fall? and when do you think will be a good time to buy?'
My view is a crash this autumn and early next year will bring prices back
by at least 10% but possibly as much as 15-20% within 2 years. I'd like to
re-buy a house and stop renting in 2007.
My stance remains cautious and I continue to go into cash with the idea to
buy back shares if there's a crash.
To that end I'm continuing to sell/take profits in some good winners -
after taking part profits in Sondex yesterday I'm taking full profits which are
very large in Isotron.
In fact I am probably responsible for the 15p drop today as I sold more
than £30,000 of stock in various lots of between 1,000 and 2,000 shares to grab
profits of more than £10,000.
The website 3,000 shares
were sold in two lots - 1,300 shares at 571.87 and 1.700 at 569.25. So let's
call it an average of 570 to bank
a great profit for the site of £3,360.
That brings total taken and banked profits for the site for share buys
since 2001 to over £100,000, not bad - with profits from shorts taken still
nearly £40,000.
My reasoning? Despite being a fan of the company it's gradually coming
back and in current conditions with so many shares I'd rather bank now.
A few comebacks as the market bounces with many of mine up a touch -
nothing is very convincing at the moment though.
Anyone buying in this market needs to be extremely cautious - but there's
little doubt after the hammering some shares have had some bargains will appear.
But, let's face it, there's no rush and I still feel 2005 is going to be
the year when shorts will make more money than longs!
Wendesday 11th May
Well, kind of. We kept waking each other up. 'Oooh, it's 2 O'clock.. still
asleep...' 'Oooh, 4 O'clock...' etc. Can he do it again tonight or was it a one
off? Find out tomorrow!
Let's grab a mail from the mailbag: 'I am a member of a small share club,
we have had some success and some catastrophes as well, but more importantly we
have had FUN as well as ending up with a few grand.
'Can I ask for some advice ? It's not about what shares to buy but rather
how to buy shares when they are new floatation's. I read the article in the
Sunday Times.
apply for shares at issue in a similar way to the big flotation's like BT, Abbey
National etc ? The particular one I am interested in is Renovo. Any help would
be much appreciated?'
Interesting letter - I have bought the odd new issue but I normally wait
till they've been on the market for a while and prefer main market issues.
I asked my Premium BB participants what they thought and here are some
thoughts from experienced traders:
They always pitch it top end so I would say do not buy.'
Another comment: 'The old rules that were fair to private investors were
scrapped 5 years ago. We don't now get a look in except for VCT's and rubbish.
(No stockbroker commission when you buy direct at flotation.) There are liars,
damn liars and share promoters'.
Seriously it is now hard so two rules:
2. Buy after the first dip has recovered as it sets a bit of a floor, may be
lower than launch, and you control the size of purchase.
The scholarship answer has to be to go for a bit a private equity
-Candover,3i ?- so that you get to sell stuff at floats (which is better).
Research companies like Prelude Trust and buy them when the price is attractive.
And another comment:
'Totally agree. Much better to buy a share that's tried and tested, with a
proven record of earnings growth IMO.
I'm still holding the 3,200 or so shares bought at 160p. My reason is
results are due in a few days and I'm hedging my bets - take some profits, hold
in case results are really good. A sensible move in a market when prices tend to
get hammered on results day.
A huge swing up for Gibbs
yesterday afternoon, very nice and a bit of a relief! The
Blacks Leisure short continues to
do very well.
Recent buys Emerald,
Erinaceous and
Kier are holding up well in a
depressed market today.
Otherwise mainly a few small falls or an unchanged portfolio today.
Market-makers continue to depress shares where they can. It's always
difficult when there's a slow grind down in shares rather than a quick sell off.
Quick sell-offs are much better because you usually get very good
rebounds. Slow falling markets are much harder to play.
Generally a market to be cautious about doing any buying and I'd be
looking at more shorting than any new buying for right now.
Tuesday 10th May
Elizabeth is worried that he's only in the bottom range of the size he
should be but I don't really feel that worried.
I'd rather he was smaller than being a big obese baby! We're not exactly
huge people ourselves so it's not that surprising he may end up smaller than
average.
He's reaching all the milestones he should in other departments especially
pissing on me when I least expect it (a bit like some shares that I'm holding).
He was very hungry at 3am last night and gobbled the milk down fast which
meant a bit more sleep than usual!
Everything I think I know is in it - from how to pick value shares to ones
to avoid, to how to make money in any market.
Some good solid moves from many of my lot today and I've dived in (where
angels probably fear to tread) with some new buys
I topped up with 1,000
shares of Emerald Energy at
138.5p this morning. Stop
128p, target
170p. I couldn't resist this
price which looked a bargain.
Sometimes with small shares controlled by market-makers these days they
are clever and know exactly what might trigger some people's stop losses.
I also waded in for another decent amount of
Kier (KIE). I bought another
800 shares at
840p. I believe the Kier share
price is undervalued by at least 100p.
This is a company with profits of more than £40m but a market cap of under
£300m and a PE of 10.
I flogged off the last small amount of
Get shares I had left at
183p yesterday afternoon to take
a small loss of £14.
The moral is, sometimes there is nothing you can do to be pre-warned and I
don't feel I'd have played this any differently.
Elsewhere a great day. A big lift for many of the shares that have been
looking fatigued. Some recent buys are doing well today.
A big rise from Gibbs which
vindicates my decision to keep holding at below the original stop loss.
The fall of Keir yesterday
is a bit of a mystery - no real selling. Could be market maker games and I'm
tempted to top up at what looks like a silly price.
At last Blacks Leisure has
tumbled - I've been waiting for this one to fall for a while and today it's
obliged to put my short into a good profit.
Roxboro has moved after a long
sleep - an encouraging trading statement today has helped.
Monday 9th May
A good meal out on Saturday with lovely friends. £330 for four! Oh well,
the food was good and life is for living! Christopher slept soundly for the
babysitter while we were out.
I really love the Capital One credit card. Not that I use the poxy card -
what I mean is the free biros that come once a week with the junk mailing -
Elizabeth gets them as well so that's a very handy two biros a week.
Thank heaven the election's over - and we won't have to put up with Blair,
Howard or Kennedy at the next one. One suspects the replacements will be little
better...
Now for a dip in the mailbag: Regarding my comments about not taking
Christopher on holiday because it wasn't much fun, here's reader
Rodger:
'We have delightful daughters. When they were babies we took them
everywhere. You cannot argue to leave the baby, its all part of being a parent!
Stuart writes: 'Just back from
the states so missed all the political bullshit. Quite interesting seeing Warren
Buffet talking on TV over there. With his passionate belief that terrorists will
attack with nuclear ferocity.
I have to say they are huge consumers, with so many things being dollar to
pound equivalent making almost everything half what we pay here. It will be
interesting to see how far prices far fall here.
The national debt level there is huge and I feel we are following with our
massive import levels. Great news about your book, just pre ordered and look
forward to an exciting read.'
Thanks Stuart. I tend to agree with your comments. Most people in the UK
are in terrible debt mainly due to the ease of getting credit. It will all
unravel eventually.
To complete a busy mailbag session,
Laurent writes:' Just ordered the
book and looking forward to it. I read the bit about stop losses. Like you I
rarely use them.
Three days later they paid a special dividend of 25p, the share dropped,
out went my shares for a total loss of over 2000 pounds. Same day they bounced
back and went 5p higher.
So I would recommend your readers checking if any dividends, share
buybacks etc are scheduled if they are in a mind to set any stop losses.'
A great mail Laurent. This is yet another thing to be careful with when
using spreadbet stop losses. Check the news wires carefully for any events
likely to create a false drop in the shares.
I took profits in two companies in the portfolio that reported today. Both
reports were pretty positive, however in these markets anything that isn't
better than expected tends to get hammered and you have to take notice of market
conditions.
Last year I'd have just carried on holding both of them ignoring any
results day profit-taking but nervy investors means a complete change of
conditions so I banked the cash.
First sale was Windsor at
58.73p to take a decent profit of
£877 - a quick profit too as I
only bought quite recently.
The results were fine, Windsor quite simply carries on making more profit
every year. Trouble is I did expect a bit more and at 58p, it's all priced in.
Second sale was Diploma at
732.75 to take profits of
£377. I waited a while just in
case the shares rose - there was one market maker on 735 soaking up sales so I
held on - but once that market maker lowered I sold - again the beauty of level
2.
A new buy today - I bought 2,500
shares in Erinaceous (ERG) at
264.9p. Target
295p, stop loss
240p. It's moved up a touch since
I bought with the buy price a little under 268p.
I like the look of this one a lot - right now I'm only buying things I
REALLY like and look very strong in the current weak market.
I could have bought a bit lower as I've been tracking it for a while but
decided to take the plunge today using the profits from Windsor and Diploma. It
was brought to my attention a few weeks ago by a reader and I liked it right
away.
One of the main things is it's been remarkably strong despite all the
market weakness in smaller caps and this is good news and shows there's a great
chance of more upside.
Also it clicks all my other buttons - which include strong growth and
director buying. The recent purchases of Hercules will take some bedding down
but will add substantially to profits.
My initial view is to get a quick ten per cent - however I also possibly
have this one marked down as a decent long-term buy if things keep going the way
they are.
Possible negatives? I guess the fact the shares has been zooming higher
for a while and a severe market downturn could see a sudden reverse. But for now
I'll take that chance.
Elsewhere more gains for Telecom
Plus after the successful £12m placing which raises a lot of money for
the company without the need for a damaging rights issue.
Burren is trying hard to
poke above 500p again. On the worry list are
Harvey Nash and
Emerald. Both could go lower and
then bounce back.
No move in recent buy Cattles
which is trying to decide whether the 303-307 area is a bottom or not. And
that's enough about bottoms for one update, surely. Recent shorts in
Whitbread and
Blacks Leisure are still paying
off.
Friday 6th May
Did you see the cartoonist on ITV? What kind of rubbish idea was that? And
am I using far too many question marks today?
Talk about bullshit. From the presenters to the politicians. And in the
end all three parties claim they 'won'. The real people that lost were us.
And you have to admire the cheek George Galloway - he supported one of the
most brutal dictators of our time, Saddam Hussein.. and then managed to win the
Muslim vote on an anti-war ticket.
None of the parties had anything new or interesting to say. They all had
similar policies and there was little to tell them apart. What they don't
realise is, it's the small stuff we want (or I want) sorted out.
Such as speed cameras designed to get money from us, traffic wardens ready
to pounce, ridiculous over-enforcement of small-minded rules and regulations.
We love Christopher so much that we miss him when he's asleep. I keep
saying at 9pm - let's wake him up and play with him!
A nice weekend ahead - a neighbour's having a BBQ on Sunday and we're off
out Saturday night for a posh meal with some friends as we have a babysitter in.
Hope you all have a good time too!
A mail from reader Andy:
'Just a quick note to say how useful my wife and I find your website. We log in
everyday, not only for advice on the Markets, but to follow how you cope with
having a young baby in the house.
Andy, don't go! Spend the money on childcare and get out somewhere together!
I was convinced to buy shares in the market following a recent spreadbet
purchase after a very upbeat statement.
I'd be surprised if 300p did not prove a very strong support level for the
shares and there appears to be plenty of room for some decent upside here.
'Do you never use guaranteed stops? Cattles being a case in point. Do you
use them embedded in you spread bets when you trade at the time of opening your
positions?'
The answer, Francis, is generally no unless It's a down bet and perhaps
the company in question could be a bid target.
My reason is guaranteed stop losses tend to work in favour of the spread
company who often stop people out on volatile early morning swings.
I'm very glad I didn't have one on Cattles or I'd have been stopped out
and taken a loss. I'd much rather personally keep an eye on my own investments
and sell out when I feel the time is right.
Prices on SETS stock can vary wildly and often the spread in the early
mornings are ridiculous and can lead to being stopped out at a price that
doesn't really exist! Not something that gets me going!
Emerald is hovering around
stop loss levels but I'm still giving it the benefit of the doubt, there are
tons of small shareholders and to some extent they are at the mercy of the
market makers. It doesn't take much to change sentiment and I would hate to be a
seller at the bottom.
Telecom Plus has just
raised £12m to help in its energy hedging strategy - this is a sensible move.
The company has been taking on some very strong new managers including one
of the founders of the very successful Ocado business. And it's got the backing
of the institutions which is very important
And at last it's linking a broadband deal with free phone calls - (see the
offer above). This should lead to much stronger sales.
Burren looks like it's
about to re-gain the 500p level - anyone who bought at recent lows bought at
good prices I reckon.
Get Group is recovering
today (I need a lot of convincing on this one now) and so is
Gibbs.
Wendesday 4th May
There were some good bits - a very good view from the hotel balcony of
Poole Harbour including a very good view of the Isle of Wight Ferry.
What an amazing business that is! £35 a head for a three minute journey.
The company must be coining it in and there's no competition.
We also watched the thriller 'Open Water' on the laptop while on the
balcony. It was spooky watching it while actually being right by open water.
Good movie.
Christopher was admired by everyone he came into contact with and we were
very proud parents. He smiles at everyone, the little tinker! I hope you all had
a good BH weekend.
We've had the local Tory Party in the cafe this morning starting their
campaign for the day. They spent a lot of money, maybe I should vote for them!
Onto the markets.
Some nice performers for me today.
Broadcastle is going great guns and it's good to see the shares back over
the 100p level which looks bullish. The market-makers are buying shares and look
short of stock.
Windsor is up again and up
more than 10% since my recent buy and
Hitachi Credit is performing creditably (gettit?).
Burren is trying to re-gain
that crucial 500p mark (a long-term hold so short-term moves don't bother me).
Y ou remember I keep saying the market bites you in the bum when you least
expect it? Well, what a shock for me this morning.
The real problem was the vague wording of the statement. I don't think the
shares would have tumbled so much if there'd been more detail. What on earth
does not meet the market expectations mean?
I always feel that one should always get rid of some shares fairly fast if
you get a warning of any kind - then leave some in play as the market takes a
longer look. Of course it will be annoying if (and they probably will) bounce -
but it's safety first in this market.
For site purposes I'm going to go for the more painful option and call it
a loss on the 3,000 I bought at 248 rather than claiming some profit on the ones
I bought at 184.
The thing about this statement makes me wonder about the economy
generally. Were companies doing well last year but are some now heading for
trouble? The very ones that have made so much money for me?
The fact is I simply don't know - but as I remain cautious about the
market it seemed a sensible move to cut my stakes in some of my strongest movers
and bank some profits.
This seems wise and reflects my uncertainty - and probably the uncertainty
that most of you feel as well.
The ones I've cut stakes in are
Dart and Carrs. Looking at
both they still seem like great companies to me - but given that both have been
coming back I've decided to take part profits.
So I sold 1,000 Dart at
313p to take profits of
£164 (leaving 1,000 in play) and
750
Carrs at
496.25p to take profits of
£781 (leaving 1,150 shares in
play). That leaves a total loss for the site today of
£825.
What else is going on? Emerald
has had a tough time recently though 148-150 seems a strong bottom. I'm still
holding - just!
The Whitbread short is
going very nicely and I'm hoping for further falls here. I see
Isotron had a nice rise while I
was a way on holiday and I'm looking forward to the next statement.
Friday 29th April
Slightly irritating that the forecast for Poole isn't as good as London
but I suppose we don't want Christopher Burns to get too hot, do we?
Nothing like being away when the markets are shut and the cafe closed too
- time to really relax!
I hope you all have a wonderful bank holiday weekend - get out there and
enjoy it and try and forget any losses you may have encountered over the last
week.
Talking of losses I bet most of you out there have been shouting
unpleasant words at your computers including words beginning with F and B and
maybe even C if things have got really bad. (Except the ladies out there who I
am sure said nothing worse than 'Oh pooh!'.)
That's why I keep on at those that e-mail me thinking the markets are easy
money - don't use money you really can't afford to lose. As you can see from
this week, you really can do your nuts.
I've learned some lessons myself this week. I've made a lot of money over
the last 6 months but I've definitely given some back this week.
I'm a bit annoyed with myself as I ignored two of my own rules with a
couple of shares - ignored a stop loss on one and caught a falling knife with
another! Both rules I try and hammer home to investors but I failed to stand by
myself. What a hypocrite!
The stop loss was on Gibbs
- I should have sold at 400p and didn't! I do expect a recovery but I could have
sold at 400p and bought back lower. If I end up making a profit I still deserve
a slap.
The falling knife was Harvey Nash.
I got out at the right time taking a small loss - then bought back because I
felt the shares had been hammered enough.
As usual these mistakes have been registered in the Burns brain for future
reference. I believe it's worth trying to be positive about mistakes and
continue to learn especially when market conditions change.
Let's try and be more cheerful now: A mail from reader
Sue: 'Well the markets are
miserable reading, hope they all come back from the holiday with brighter
intent.
Thanks Sue! Yes, come on Tim! If Alan Sugar takes Saira on, I think he
will regret it - I doubt somehow he will want a motormouth by his side!
Thursday 28th April
I find I'm hardly switching on the TV these days, it's either rubbish or
election rubbish. But a very interesting Apprentice last night and I think in
the end Sir Alan was probably right to ditch Paul and James.
Don't be fooled of reports of a rise in house prices of 7% over the last
year - the market started to weaken from August.
A superb performance from Hitachi
Credit. As I write my spread bet at 242p and buy in the market this week
at 249 look good as the shares have stormed up to 265.
Good news from Costain - a
very confident and upbeat AGM statement has lifted the price today - if the
market wasn't in the doldrums it would be storming ahead today.
Disappointed to see Gibbs
fall today. It's hovering at stop loss levels but just for the moment it gets
the benefit of the doubt on strong fundamentals.
Burren looks like great
value - could be one of the few chances left to buy above the 480p level for
this year I would guess.
Diploma is strong ahead of
upcoming results which I expect will be outstanding and push the price up
towards 800p.
Obviously with the market rocky, my shorts are doing well - my
FTSE downbet is in good profit as
are other short positions.
Broadcastle has been
holding well in the down market. Surprised to see
Harvey Nash drop a touch after
the director buying. Staying put for the moment.Wendesday 27th April
A mail from reader Shanti:
'Would you offer one-to-one mentoring until I get the hang of the markets?'
One word here. No!! I'm always being asked and often offered bucketloads of
cash! I have no interest in, or will ever, in advising anyone on what shares to
buy or sell - no matter how much you offer - nor will I run your portfolio.
There is no easy way round making money on shares - you must trade and
learn. You must read books, get experience and keep learning - don't rely on
other people, tips, systems or anything else. Do the work and you'll make money
- go the lazy route and you won't.
'The reason most traders get wiped out is they do not hold positions long enough
and are lazy ie do no research or pre plan entries exits on charts/fundamentals.
Worst of all they do not say ENOUGH is ENOUGH! on trading costs!
Just to explain the crass stupidity on AIM small cap typical spread 3p in,
3p out plus say £12 Brokerage and 0.50% Stamp and £1.00 PTM
Bottom Line: In 30p stock price £30,000 trade, 100,000 shares bought, cost
£30,000,SD £150,
Brokerage £12, Total Cost £30,162
Average Break Even Point 30.162p cost £30,162.00, Out At Entry 27.00p,
Less £12.00 Brokerage and £1.00 PTM Levy Net, Out at entry £27,000 less £12.00
plus £1.00, Net £26,987.00 IE 26.987p Entry of trade cost=£30,162.00 less
£26,987.00=£3,175.00 =10.5265% of Capital!
So why do short termers always get buried? Because the UK LSE is an UTTER
RIP OFF! Bottom Line UK MM's either reduce spreads to FLAT % or they are OUT OF
A JOB! BY JUNE 2005!
I do what I usually do on a day like this and search for stocks going up -
once I get the list I research them for future possible buys.
It's very helpful to have a few shorts open on days like this and I expect
to continue to strengthen the shorting department and only hold shares I feel
will withstand a downturn.
Some of my lot have been marked down notionally today, so I don't feel
worried. They really are a good lot!
Like Hitachi Credit - this one
will head up to 300p this year I reckon! It's come back to my buying price after
yesterday's good gains but I would be very surprised if it went a lot lower,
it's simply a bargain!
Strangely enough, a couple of shares in my high risk SIPP are doing well
today. One I like especially is up 14% after some decent buying yesterday.Tuesday 26th April
Some great e-mails have arrived recently and there's a backlog of good ones I
want to use!
Let this e-mail take you away from the grim UK weather and transport you
to a sunny and warm India.
This from Jatinder:
'Just returned from a family visit to India. 4 weeks of complete relaxation!
Always wanted to see the Taj Mahal. Truly a spectacular sight, but boy was it
hot in Agra, well into the 40 degree heat.
Anyhow, India is certainly forging ahead with China, plenty of English
companies & goods present but the Americans seem to be making the most of the
opportunities.
The visit bought home to me, how we Brits are generally by nature coy,
retiring & bashful. Indians by nature are loud & it seem as though they possess
a natural flair for bargaining & salesmanship.
I went to a local book store & spotted a copy of 'rich dad poor dad', the
vendor said 95 rupees( that's just over £1), I was just in the process of
handing over the dosh, when my uncle tore into me for spending 'so much' money.
Anyhow nice to be back.... even though it's bloody cold!! Now & again ,
there are little gems on your site, that's what makes it compulsive viewing, so
on Friday it was worth firing up the PC & clicking the mouse for your advice to
Sohail.
Thanks Jatinder - I very much like being compared to movie hunk Vin
Diesel! Just call be Vin from now on!
Thinking of going back to work full time and just keep buying gold and
silver on any weakness, the stockmarket appears to me as a disaster waiting to
happen. trading commods /currencies requires margin I no longer am willing to
provide.
So I believe this will help me to make money from the big companies
falling while also making money by being very selective in the small cap arena.
My bet was made at 4,858
and I'm already showing a small profit. I'm not sure yet whether this is a
short-term or long-term position, I'll play it by ear and I have no target as
such. I think it could be a wise move.
I took a loss of £369 in my
Nord Anglia position by selling
at the odd price of 127.635p!
This buy was disappointing from the start and it's time to take the loss. (Real
trade was 6,500 shares).
Two new buys which might seem strange as the market is weak today. However
I feel both are showing strong upward results and movements and I think they
will hold firm against a weak market and provide profits.
The first is one of my favourites
Hitachi Credit (HCU). Results were amazingly strong today but what's more
amazing is a market cap of only just over £100m when the company is making £16m
in profits. How undervalued can you get?
There's also a very tidy dividend and I also added some to my SIPP at 247p
- a really good long-term hold as value will out on this one eventually.
I also added some more Chime (CHW).
My original buy looked a bit sick a few days ago as the shares tumbled to 29p.
However there are some big buys coming in and I still believe these are
undervalued.
Phew - that's it!!
It shows how strong the portfolio is that a lot of my shares are going up
despite the gloom today.
Harvey Nash is going up -
some directors bought at the same price as me yesterday, the buys were announced
this morning.
Windsor continues to look
strong and is nearly busting back through the 60p mark - well undervalued and
seems good in a weak market.
Emerald at last is showing
a strong movement upwards which looks promising as it announces more drilling
news and Kier looks good too.
Surprised to see Carrs down
today given it goes ex dividend tomorrow - anyone selling today won't get it.
Monday 25th April
However beforehand I was worried about the best man who seemed to be
drinking a might amount of scotch from a hip flask. I'd also seen him downing
copious amounts of beer.
In the toilets he told me he was 'shitting himself' and that he also felt
sick. As the host I suggested he didn't drink anymore otherwise he might be sick
on stage.
When he eventually came to the mike he started giggling hysterically
before standing there for 25 minutes telling stories unsuitable for a wedding
using words that I can't repeat here but all the bad words involving bottoms
were used.
We all cringed as the elderly parents (and the vicar!) sat through it
looking horrified. I decided to take action after a while and got up on stage
and got him off. Blimey!
Everything else went fine thank goodness - spoke to some interesting
designers who obviously really loved their work. They don't care so much about
the money they just love their jobs.
I love meeting people that enjoy what they do. There's nothing worse than
listening to office workers moaning about their lot. I tell them to get out but
they never do!
I just can't understand people who stick at jobs they hate for decades
just because they get enough money to pay off their mortgages every month. Life
is for living!
At the office I used to work at pretty much everyone had plans for
'getting out'. My colleagues all told me they were 'leaving' - they're all still
there!
If you really want to leave - give yourself a three year plan - start to
earn outside your full-time job and cut all your costs immediately (read my
'Escape' piece for more).
Louis says: 'In response to
Sohail mail to you about the Stazione course. I have the Stazione Course notes
and I made a 'killing' on shorting the Dow from 15th March this year based on
the Stazione Course Notes and his MA strategy. Obviously, Sohail needs to read
these course notes over and over again!!!
Reader Bill writes:
You never cease to amaze me. The (free) advice you give to those who write
in regarding making money from the stock-market really spells it out for them.
Reader Frank says:
Very quick line to say your advice to Sohail was brilliant and I only wish
I had taken that advice years ago. Currently trying to consistently grind out a
living from the markets on a daily basis. whilst great fun, does tend to
generate certain pressures.
The only thing I would add to your advice to Sohail is simply to say a
traders focus should always be to learn how NOT to loose money and let the
profit take care of themselves.
Thanks for all your responses!
Onto the markets. I thought it might be interesting to take you through a
few of my thought processes which made me sell my
9,000
Harvey Nash shares at
75.5p this morning (website loss
£850) instead of holding on and
finding myself looking at shares now at 63p!
I looked at the results statement which on the face of it looked OK, but
when I saw the words 'held back' it made me want to sell.
However the shares were up so I figured hold on as maybe some investors
might read the statement as more positive than I did.
My next move was to switch on level 2 which showed three market makers
offering 75p - that was fine.
Just after 9am one of the mm's moved lower and I decided to sell - the
9,000 shares sell went through right away at half a pence more than the 75p on
offer!
I thought: 'Oh no, the mm's are keen to get hold of my shares - I've made
a mistake and the shares are going to go up!'
But about half an hour later the shares started to drop and then fell off
a cliff. I think what I've described there shows how important level 2 was in my
decision to sell.
Elsewhere Burren has moved
sharply higher on better oil prices - I've held onto this one through all the
volatility and it is paying off.
Chime at last is moving up
- glad I kept patience with it. Rotork
looks strong after its excellent statement on Friday while
Windsor is holding pretty well
after two days of decent gains.
Otherwise a quiet start to the week - I have my eye on two or three decent
looking buys but I'm not in any rush and I'll wait for the right price.Thursday 21st April
A much better Apprentice this week and an interesting decision by Alan
Sugar. My feeling is he just didn't like Miriam that much from the start and
couldn't see himself working with her. She didn't really deserve to go.
Looking forwards to the live final next week. I wouldn't really want to
work with any of them... would you?
There is so much crap, jargon and nonsense still in the markets - I agree with
this reader:
As a prospective investor in WLW, I have been monitoring news-flow for
what it's worth and wonder what you think of crap like this that regularly
appears :-
3) Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of holding
of the Shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial interest
or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's
spouse or children under the age of 18 : NOT STATED
4) Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them: NOT STATED
5) Number of shares/amount of stock acquired: N/A
6) Percentage of issued Class: N/A
7) Number of shares/amount of stock disposed: NOT STATED
8) Percentage of issued Class: N/A
9) Class of security: ORDINARY SHARES OF 12.5P EACH
10) Date of transaction: NOT STATED
11) Date company informed: 20 APRIL 2005
12) Total holding following this notification: NOT STATED
13) Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification:LESS
THAN 3%
A mine of information I think you will agree. Transparency ?? NOT !! What
is the point in issuing crap like this ? Agreed! I see a lot of statements like
this, Frank.
Everything should be transparent - all trades especially the big ones
should be reported right away - all the cloak and dagger stuff is unnecessary
and why can't people write in plain English??
The share is Windsor (WNDR).
I bought 15,000 shares this
morning at 52.88p. Stop loss
48p, target
62p.
This is a great little insurance company and basically the share is in a
long-term uptrend which looks unlikely to be broken.
It's also well undervalued - a tiny PE ratio and a ludicrously small
market cap for the profits being achieved.
I made some nice cash from this one last year buying in the late 30s and
selling in the mid 40s and hope to repeat the trick here.
It certainly now looks well oversold and the shares simply are a must buy
for me at these low levels
I'm looking reasonably short-term for a change - hoping for the 15%-20%
rise I'm looking for within 2-6 weeks.
One sale today - and that's taking a loss of
£510 in
PD Ports at
102.153p. This has been hugely
disappointing and I decided this was currently the weakest link and was sold to
raise the money to buy Windsor.
A disappointing day for small caps with a few mark downs. There's no doubt
it's a difficult market out there and all portfolios should be looked at and
I've made mine more defensive in the past few weeks. All share buys should be
thought about carefully - it's not a time to be 'Punting'.
I'm surprised to see Costain
coming back to near my buying price - but the 46p level looks strong and I think
it'll bounce.
On my should I be selling list are
Nord Anglia, Chime and
Harvey Nash. They all continue to
get the benefit of the doubt!
Burren is holding nicely
back above 500p - Croda looking
very strong today as well so there are some bright spots!
Wendesday 20th April
I was supposed to be on at five O clock - but at that time the pope was
announced so I presumed they'd drop the item for another time...
I had the radio on in the background anyway and at 5.25pm I heard the
presenter day: 'So I'm now going to speak to Robbie Burns...'
Bizarre as I wasn't even on the phone to them! I wondered for a second
whether a Robbie Burns impersonator was coming on the line. Then she said 'We
seem to have a problem with Robbie..' Then they called me!
Sadly for me trying to promote the cafe the presenter seemed more
interested in my name and that coffee prices were going up and I only just
managed to get a plug in for our shepherd's pie before more live Pope coverage
took over!
Onto the markets. Some decent mark-ups again for a lot of my portfolio
- I again reiterate my point, if you have quality companies, they will rise over
time.
I am sitting here very excited about a certain share. This excellent
company is coming down to a bargain basement buy price but I'm being greedy and
hoping it'll come down a bit more before I get stuck in.
In the meantime I'm delighted with the performance of the portfolio over
the last couple of days.
Good performances from my oil plays
Burren and
Emerald - I'm hoping Burren will
close above 500p tonight.
Diploma continues to motor
with results due shortly this one still looks undervalued to me and I'm a very
happy holder.
Also on the up is VP which
I hope will regain the 200p area shortly and
Sondex is making up lost ground
and I'm looking for an advance to near its highs at around 245p.
Carrs Milling holds on to
yesterday's good gains and this cracking company at some point will get another
re-rating - just a question of being patient.
Croda is having a cracking day as
is Rotork and
Dignity too.
My two disappointing holds are
Chime and Harvey Nash but
looking at the figures again for both I'll still hold for a bit on hopes of
recovery for both.
Tuesday 19th April
I shall of course be putting on my best posh voice.. if you get a chance
to listen let me know how I did!
Anyone watching Hells Kitchen? Not a patch on the one with Gordon Ramsay
is it? Gary Rhodes is only pretending to be nasty which just isn't the same.
Gary hasn't done himself any favours - he comes across as a bit of a tosser.
The French chef is really showing him how to build a team - use
encouragement not aggression and that brings results.
'I'm not putting my name to this,' pretend snarled Gary. As Angus Deaton
pointed out he just ended up 'serving piss poor food to hardly anyone'!
Well, today's market rally is a bit of a relief isn't it. Is it just a
temporary thing? How the hell should I know, what do you think I am, an expert?
Go and ask your favourite bullshitter guru!
And talking of bull some of the e-mails from the 'experts' right now are
laughable - the 'chartists' in particular. When they turn bearish (ahem, after
being bullish just a few days ago) it's probably time to be buying!
A sensible move for now is probably to have a few shorts open and a bit of
cash on the sidelines. I'm not in the camp that panics and sells everything
because the market goes down a bit.
Great results from Carrs
Milling today. Excellent rise in H1 profits and though the shares have
risen nearly 200 points since I bought them, given the market remains stable
they are worth another 100 points at least. A definite great long-term hold
here.
Bouncing back today shares include
Burren - another long-term hold where volatility can be ignored for
long-term big gains. I expect to see a share price of 800p by this time next
year.
Diploma now looks very
strong - up against the market falls yesterday and up another 6p today - looks a
good candidate for an 800p target.
Croda,
Admiral,
Dignity,
Cattles,
Telecom Plus are among the other
gainers which certainly pushes the portfolio back up from the losses of
yesterday.
While I don't have my buying boots back on just yet, these are certainly
interesting times and a lot depends as usual on the Americans.Monday 18th April
She's in charge of most of the theatre shows in the West End. She's made
millions out of picking the right shows and putting the right stars in place.
It's quite fun for me and Elizabeth as we get to go to some of the big
openings. My sister has to deal with the demands the big stars make, and some of
those demands are big.
She has an amazing multi million pound house which overlooks Hampstead
Ponds - a quite beautiful spot.
You might wonder whether I'm jealous and I'm not! I'd much rather have
less money and a smaller house than have to work 24 hours a day.
She has to be quite ruthless in her line of work but deep down she's very
nice and she loves Christopher especially as it's too late for her to have
children now.
I ate way too much and still feel like a beached whale today. That's an
extra mile I'm going to do on the treadmill this afternoon!
Talking of houses thanks to Craig for passing on an article about house
prices reporting prices in Kensington where I used to live have fallen 7% since
I sold to rent as I figure a crash is coming. That means the house I sold for
£550,000 is probably worth £500,000 now. Phew!
I mentioned I wanted to go on holiday. Reader
Colin reckons:
Did I read correctly! You need a holiday? Well, Gibraltar is the safest
place in the world for adults and kids alike. Really safe I mean with kids
running about all over the place.
The Caleta Palace Hotel would be good for starters with sandy beach close
by, but, I regret no Happy Hours at present. Try a week to see if it fits and
who knows? You could also run a Day Trader seminar for a day a recoup all of
your expenses, etc, etc.
Thanks Colin. As for running a seminar, no thanks! That sounds like real
work to me and I'm far too lazy!
Whether shares go down more than they have already depends a lot on what
happens in the US this afternoon and tomorrow.
I for one don't sell on days like this - the last thing I want to do is
let the market-makers grab my shares off me at a low price and then re-sell them
to someone else at a higher price!
For example VP is down
three p without a single trade being reported! There's no evidence just yet
we're back in a bear market - it's amazing how sentiment suddenly changes.
So I'm just watching from the sidelines and see how things unfold.
Actually there's not been that much damage done to my lot - but no share will
escape during a general markdown/panic.
Remember if you sell your shares in a panic and then buy them back that's
loads of commission and stamp duty out of the window.
Burren is probably my worst
hit but why worry? It's a company going places and I believe it'll be 700p a
share by the end of the year whatever the market does.
90% of the portfolio is well in profit with only two near or in stop loss
territory. I'm for the moment happy to be calm and see what happens. When I do
sell shares, I'd much rather sell into a big upswing then a downturn.
I really hope none of you have been hit too badly today - I'm sure some of
you have sold everything and who knows? You may turn out to be right. And at
least my three shorts are going well now!
I have to laugh at these e-mails I get from a chartist - at Easter I was
getting e-mails saying the FTSE was going to rocket to 5,400.Friday 15th April
We're going to go somewhere in the UK the moment the weather gets better -
we've found a couple of nice infant friendly hotels. Sometimes you just need a
break, don't you, and that's how I feel...
It's Corporal Jones time again on the markets! When markets go down the
bulletin boards become full of headless chickens panicking.
As long as you hold companies that are strong earners there is no need to
worry. But it's always worth re-appraising the companies you hold on says like
this. It's a good sign if at least some of the companies you hold at least hold
their own today.
Recently I have been day trading the £ v $ suggest you check it out.
Currently shorting the £ as result of the IMF statement this morning regarding
the US economy likely to outpace Europe and Japan.
Another, and completely different Frank
writes:
'I have just clicked on your site for the first time - I am now looking for a bit of - at this stage-
free advice.
Basically I have recently been made redundant and at my age do not
envisage taking on full time employment but I do need to have a modest income
over the next three/four years and am considering frequent trading on the the
stock market ie a day trader.
What a question! My gut reaction to Frank's mail is he shouldn't invest in
the markets. That's because he NEEDS an income and he wants it from the markets.
That's a problem. I believe you shouldn't try and make money from the
markets if you can't afford to lose some of your capital and judging by the feel
of Frank's mail I don't think he can afford to lose money from his redundancy
cheque.
Perhaps it's partly my fault. Maybe I make it look like making money from
the market is easy when it isn't.
And I can afford to lose every single penny sitting in my isas/peps.
That's because I have a very decent income coming in from other businesses.
If I was made redundant and needed an income the last place I would be
going is the stock market. Frank really needs to look at possibly simply putting
the money in a high interest account and look around for some work he can do
from home.
I don't really know - I'm not a financial adviser and I shouldn't really
be giving Frank this advice at all if I stuck to the letter of the law.
I'm not doing too badly today considering the markdowns and as usual on
days like this I tend to stay calm and not panic sell. Nor do I usually buy on
days like this.
I prefer doing some research on any rising stocks - shares going up in a
market like this are worth noting, not necessarily to buy right now but maybe
looking at future buying.
My two biggest fallers are oil stocks
Burren and
Emerald. However Burren will go
back up easily enough. Emerald is a bit more complex and its report today has
driven the price down.
Otherwise I have a few small fallers and nothing really that's getting me
worried. The only two stinkers in the portfolio appear to be
Chime and
Harvey Nash.
Costain has been hit by the
general sell off in housebuilders/construction today and so has
Keir - no worries from me on
either score - both great companies that will continue higher.Past Commentaries
Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005
Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December
Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Thursday 19th May
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