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Robbie Burns

Current Spread Betting Commentary


Monday 18th July

 

 Well, that was an interesting night out! We went to an open air concert at Kew on Friday night - me, Elizabeth and her sister decided to cycle. It was a bloody long way!

 Anyhow we got there and had a great time - there were thousands there and we were glad we went by bike as the traffic jams were huge.

 But we'd forgotten one thing for the journey back - lights!! Then I had a 'flash' of inspiration - kids were waving flashing love hearts and wearing them on their heads.

 So I bought two sets (£2.50 each) attached one set to the back of my bike and one to the front of Elizabeth's bike and we set off at 11pm riding in tandem. Not quite sure how many laws we broke getting home.

 Let's see, cycling on pavements, running red lights, cycling with 'comedy lights', cycling along closed roads.

 I think both ladies were secretly pleased at various wolf whistles from workmen working on the closed roads!

 Onto the mailbag, Simon writes:' The question is this: is there any way of hedging against a falling FTSE in an ISA?

 You can't buy covered warrants or CFD's within an ISA so there is no way to bet on a falling market.

 Onto the markets a nice quiet summer day with most of the portfolio heading slowly but nicely higher. After my frenetic trading over the last few weeks I'm taking a bit of a breather today.

 Hunting is the star of the day - bought at 255 a few days ago it's moving very strongly today and is up at 270 - I can't see much stopping this one getting to 300.

 Also on the rise is Galliford Try after some nice write-ups in the press over the weekend - good solid rising stock.

 Dragon Oil is strengthening well - 118 is the next target which would open up 125 in due course.

 Delta is trying hard to crash though the difficult 130 level - interesting to see whether any more stakebuilding goes on this week.

 A pretty good statement from Burren triggers the usual profit-taking - this is quite common with Burren - doesn't bother me as a long-term holder.

 After all I'm in at 241 and 466 so it's going to really have to fall from the current 670 bigtime for me to ever take a loss on it!

 Hurrah! Vanco has cracked the 400p level - if it can close over 400 for a couple of days, 430 looks a good new target. However I do tend to think this is just a good long-term hold.

Thursday 14th July

 
 'I've been asking myself recently whether I have been overtrading and have too many longs open!

 But then I keep telling myself to ride the uptrend while it lasts and that why not go for it when conditions are good. What do you think? Am I fooling myself and should I be taking profits sooner rather than later?'

 Onto the markets: Continuing my frantic trades to try and make the most of current great conditions, one new buy today - that's 2,500 shares in CSR at 446.9 - stop loss 425 target 495.

 This one really isn't normally my kind of share - I've not touched a tech stock since the end of the boom but perhaps now is the time to have one tech in the portfolio.

 At least this one makes profits - and a lot of profit and is a leader in bluetooth technology. Now I'm buggered if I understand much about it which is why I don't dabble much in tech shares.

 The other thing is tech shares can either issue 'wow our new wotsit is taking off' or 'It's not selling like we thought it would.'

 Results are on the 28th of this month and the big rises that have been going on lead me to believe they will be rather good. This one is more of a gamble than an investment.

 The price is very volatile - the buy prices has been in a massive 15 point range today! In fact as I write it's two points below where I bought!

 I took profits in Emerald Energy at 173.75 to take profits of £133 and £352 to bank a total for the site of £521.

The reason behind the sell?  Firstly I have a lot of exposure to oil and wanted to reduce a little so decided as Emerald has not seemed interested in getting back above 200 and has been stuck in a tight trading range for a while I'd move on for now. But as Arnie says: 'I'll be back!'

 I'm still allowing the huge profits in many companies to run.. Burren (profits for the site well over £10k) White Young Green (profit nearly £2k), Carrs Milling shows big gains as does VP and many others.

 Recent buys have been going well too. Yesterday's buy Hunting leapt up 10 points on some massive buying which suddenly came in around 11am. Looks set for a run up to 300p.

 Templeton Emerging Markets Trust is gong well as it firms over 200p. Dragon Oil, Galliford, and Vanco all show small gains which I hope will become bigger and Delta is trying hard to push above the crucial 130 area. Dignity is shooting higher just days after my large spread buy. 

Wendesday 13th July

  Busy few days ahead! Tomorrow morning we are having some family portraits taken - the three of us by a professional photographer... yes, I know.. hopefully she's got a nice soft focus lens for me!

 Friday evening we're off to a classical concert in the park. And next Wednesday evening we're invited to one of my sister's star studded parties which will enable me to shamelessly namedrop next Thursday!

 Christopher has started crawling and spent a lot of this morning trying to get near the cat. Despite being 107 years old, my cat is pretty sharp and easily gets out of his reach whenever he gets near.

 Onto the markets - you might notice I've been trading a lot more than usual recently - it's because conditions are very benign at the moment and I want to take advantage.

 So another new buy today - that's 2,000 shares in Hunting (HTG) at 255.7 - target 300p, stop 230p. As I write the price is a smidge lower than when I bought at 255.

 Some of you may remember I bought this oil services company a while back and banked some decent profits - this was back when the shares were under 200p.

 I think there is a lot of upside to come here - the company has got loads of cash from a recent rights issue and is going to grow by acquision ( as a sidenote I wonder if Sondex would be in their sights).

 Oil services is a hot sector and could get hotter. This company looks set for a growth spurt and I think 300p is in sight by September/October. Possibly even higher. I expect to hold for three months or so.

 A tiny sell to help fund the buy - no big deal really but sold one of the Broadcastle positions (we'll call it the one at 97) at 98.6 to take a profit of £24.

 This continues to be a long-term hold for me and this tiny sale was just to raise the cash. The other position stays put.

 Plenty of action in yesterday's buy Delta yesterday afternoon and also today - the huge volume tells me something rather good is about to be announced which may see some rather good upside.

 The market continues to be very kind to the portfolio which has gone higher today yet again.
Burren looks strong again and 800p looks on the cards pretty quickly once 730p is gone.

 My recovery play First Tech is looking rather good indeed - up from my buy of a couple of weeks ago at 265 to 310 now. Bit more to come by the look of it.

 Dignity is soaring nicely after my buy of the other day. White Young Green has been making an impressive performance recently and is simply going up every day a bit at a time.

 Derwent Valley continues to climb nicely and Dragon Oil is holding well after some good recent rises - I expect that one to run again soon.

Tuesday 12th July

  I would like to say congratulations to my sister Nica on her joint purchase of 4 West End theatres together with business partner Max.

 Between them, they paid £11.5 million for the theatres which they bought from the Really Useful Group of which my sister is Artistic Director.

 They formed a company called Nimax to run the theatres. Nica takes over the theatres from October 1 and leaves stops running the Really Useful Theatre Group from them.

 Talk about risk eh! She seems very confident she can make them work and she does have an excellent track record. I guess the fact she's splashing out nearly £6m herself means she is pretty confident.

 I'm sure this puts the tiny money and risk we put into the stock market in perspective. Good luck Nica!!! Looking forwards to some first nights!

 Isn't it great to see London getting back to normal so quickly after the bombings - we are so resilient. Good to see - the terrorists will never win.

 Onto the markets - two trades to report - one buy and one sell - the buy is 5,000 shares in Delta (DLTA) at 126.7p Target 140, stop 120.

 Chart readers will see this one is on the verge of a momentous breakout - over the years 126p has been the point it has usually failed.

 I think this time given excellent fundamentals there is a good chance the 126 will be breached and if it is, it opens up 140p. The downside looks limited - probably 122p. It could go back there and then have another try.

 This company looks cheap compared to some of its peers. It is normally traded by the big boys - in the last few days trades of 100,000, 200,000 and even 400,000 have been around.

 It's not generally a share played by the small punter like myself. In fact more than 3 million shares have been traded today - something's going on!!

 Some heavy trading has lifted the shares over the last few days and there is always the danger of a pullback but I'm going to take the risk.

 Right now the big boys are battling it out - a real bull versus bear pull is going on - let's hope I'm on the winning team!!

 Interesting that one company has built a stake of 24% in the company - if it picked up much more we could also see a bid situation.

 These days when one of your company reports you'll find they more often than not go down even on a great statement!

 This happened to two of mine today. It's the usual better to travel than arrive and take profits quick scenarios.

 What I try and do is decide as fast as possible whether to sell up if profit takers are obviously moving in, or hold on and let the profit-taking pass and wait for the share to rise again.

 The shares concerned were Anite and Vislink. Great statements from both and both started the day rising. But profit-takers moved in fast. My decision? I sold Anite and held onto Vislink and here are my reasons.

 Dealing with Anite the statement looked strong however this was tempered by a broker saying hold rather than buy. There seemed some disappointment in the company making share buybacks rather than going for a dividend which would attract more institutions.

 The market makers were marking down fast. I made a decisive move and sold at 69.5 to lose a small £60. If I'd been a bit faster I could have taken a profit as there was plenty of early 72!

 The main reason for selling was my target of 80p suddenly seemed like it would be much more difficult/take more time to attain.

 I felt the shares would be supported by the buybacks but would probably end up floating around 70p for some time. In the event it would better to use the cash elsewhere.

 Vislink decision was a bit easier. Yes, some profit-takers have come in but the company looks in good shape and newsflow is good. I feel the fall is only temporary and happy to hold.

 Burren is fighting back and is back over 700 today -my view is it's just a matter of being patient and holding.

 First Tech has burst through 300p - my recovery buy looks well-timed. Isotron is waking from its slumbers and looks set for a run. White Young Green continues its excellent climb - 330 looks the next stop.

Monday 11th July

   A quiet start to a summer week but some good gains continue for the portfolio. I'm most happy with the current portfolio and don't really want to take profits on anything just yet.

 I also have a lot of positions open and don't really think I should open up anything new. There are a couple I do fancy though.

 One I did feel I should get into again after taking profits was funeral parlour chain Dignity (DTY) I have added a spread upbet for £30 a point (same as buying 3,000 shares) at 380. Target 420 stop 350.

 This share has been a sparkler ever since it launched on the market and I think it has another 40 or so points more to come this year. I've taken profits all the way from the 250 level in the last year or so and it never fails to go up!

 Erinaceous has disappointed me yet again! I bought and sold once for a small loss and I've done the same thing again. My original reason for buying was what looked like a good chart breakout. However this morning the share dipped back 5 or 6 points and I decided to give up on it.

 The market is saying it doesn't think this one is worth more than 275 for the moment - and if that's the case I'm better off elsewhere. I sold at 265.5 recording a small loss of £264 for the website.

 Right now I'm being quite disciplined and taking losses fast on stocks that aren't working out rather than taking the huge profits in most of them - the winners have a little bit further to run.

 All my recent buys are going very nicely. Anite is lifting well slowly day by day. 80p seems an easy target.

 Burren, what can I say about this lovely stock except it keeps going gradually higher and raking in the money.

 White Young Green looks very nice now well above 300 which leads me to believe 330 is the next leg up - some possible Olympic work coming their way.

 My construction duo Galliford and Costain are slightly lower today due more to their move to MM/SETS than anything else. Not worried at all about those two - two wonderful safe and steady stocks.

 Templeton Emerging Markets continues to gain steadily every day - would imagine its Net Asset Value is rising.

 My recovery play First Techology is going well today just under the 300p level - hoping it will bust over that shortly So a decent enough start to the week!

Thursday 7th July

 Bastards. That sums it up. How can people do such disgusting things to others? We panicked at one point.

 Elizabeth's dad has been staying with us and was on his way to a mainline station by bus when we happened to switch on the TV (Thank God)

 We managed to call him on his mobile to get him off the bus and walk back to our house. We talked to him a lot of the way. He is here and safe.

 As for share prices, right now I don't care. I'm not going to use a terrorist event to make money from an overshoot on the downside or cut losses. It's only money. It doesn't really matter.

 I feel despair and anger as I'm sure many of you do. Why can't we have a peaceful and loving world? My heart goes out to the families affected by the bombs. You are in my thoughts.

 There is Christopher in his cot now, all sweet innocence. I feel sorry for him that one day he has to learn about such horrors. I am more or less in tears as I write this.

 I'm back to watch events now so I'm sure you will all understand if there is no update or e-mails today. I'll leave you with yesterday's update in the meantime, and happier times.

Wendesday 6th July

First congrats to London for winning the Olympic bid - Christopher will be 7 and I will be 119 by then!

 I have to say I'm in a very good mood today.. probably something to do with the fact the portfolio has absolutely rocketed so far today!

 The profits are flying in and my patience with several stocks is now paying off bigtime. There is a lot of strength in the kind of stocks I deal in.

 In particular my spreadbetting account is looking extremely healthy with £30,000 of profits this year in that alone, (£18,000 profits banked, the rest of the spreadbet positions showing a profit of £10,000).

 What I'm really pleased about is I didn't let my bias towards the downside at the beginning of the year affect my trading - and that is, staying with the uptrend even though I believe personally the markets are overvalued.

 I've only made two major mistakes this year so far - that's my buy of Chime (badly timed) and also my FTSE downbet. But at least I took the losses reasonably quickly.

 Christopher's Grandad has arrived and is loving Christopher! Christopher seems bemused by his moustache and keeps trying to pull it off!

 He is also obsessed with my sunglasses and keeps on grabbing them, trying to eat them and then throwing them to the floor.

 Oh, no matter they are £100 DNK sunglasses! I am prepared not to worry about that - as long as he is enjoying himself, I don't care!

 With Tom here, the house is full of games and we're having Suduko and Scrabble competitions which is great fun.

 The house is full of fun and laughter and Christopher continues to bring great happiness and love to our lives. We're all looking forward to The Apprentice tonight, we're all fans, including Tom.

Let's have a look at the mailbag. Bob writes:

 'Just clicked on the ADVFN link and have found your web site but haven't entered yet as intrigued by your notes on spread issues in the changes to SETS.

 I used to day trade CFD's using GNI touch system where you place your orders directly into the order book and where you work within the spread. It would seem that you could play the 'game' as a private investor using their platform.

 Don't trade CFD's any more but regard the £30,000 it cost me as an excellent education and worth the cost, but that's a different story.

 I now know myself better as an investor and have recouped the losses (over a much longer period) mainly now by taking profits before what I estimate would be the top and not biting chunks out of myself if it continues to move up.

 Also sticking rigidly to accepting a loss and again by not taking chunks out of myself if the following day there was a massive reversal. Any way off to scan your website now, good trading.

Thanks Bob.

 And a bit of a warning there! I do think CFD's have a place and they can be very useful. But I do think you must look at them as very short-term instruments and you MUST know what you are doing.

 I will try and cover CFD's and my views on them on the site soon. I've done a deal with a CFD company and one re using CFD's in SIPPS to try and get you all better value on deals and hope to launch these shortly.

 Where do I start with the amazing gains I'm getting today? Well, actually I ought to start with a new trade made this morning.

 I bought 12,000 shares in Anite (AIE) at 70p (it was already up 1.5p). Target 80p, stop 65p. I've been watching this for a while and today's very strong breakout persuaded me to get in.

 Some big volume has come in for this in the last few days with market makers trying to disguise some very big buys as sells.

 The company which had been having a torrid time seems to be turning around and the last statements have been very much on the bullish side. Looks a classic cyclical recovery play.

 There are obvious risks especially as it has risen a lot already. But with the momentum under it, there could be a lot further to go.

 I also topped up my spreadbet buy of Derwent Valley with another buy yesterday afternoon - this time for £10 a point at 1213p. Target 1300p stop 1180p. This breakout is looking very bullish.

 Loads of risers today, Burren's push through 700 is especially exciting. Just as well I ignored the idiotic downgrade by some spotty teenage 'analyst' made recently!

 Galliford Try issued a very strong trading statement this morning - it's trading at well above market expectations and there is, I think, another 10-20% upside here easily.

 The trading statement caused Costain to start rising again as the companies are very similar and both doing well - a couple of cracking slow steady rising shares for any decent portfolio with low risk too.

 My other oils are also having a cracking day. Recent buy Dragon Oil is rising strongly after yesterday's profit takers are out of the way. Already nearly a 10% rise on this.

 Emerald Energy has also joined in the fun with a strong rise too. The other buy of the week Templeton Emerging Markets is also going nicely higher today. Sondex continues its strong run and is zipping higher.

 Carrs Milling also higher. White Young Green has also shown good strength today - up now over 300 which is a very bullish sign. Rotork is motoring.. need I go on except there is a big smile on my face !#

Tuesday 5th July

 Come on Christopher, please eat your food as mummy and daddy are worried about you! He didn't want to eat much this morning and as we're desperate for him to get bigger it makes us upset. He's teething a lot now so that isn't helping either.

 Still, in the end we are probably worrying over nothing which I guess is what most new parents do.

 Elizabeth's Dad is coming to stay for 2 nights so let the Scrabble tournaments begin! There's a very funny movie new this week to rent or buy called 'Hitch' - watch it, it's a goodie!

Reader Andrew writes:

 Is there a critical bulk purchase level whereby small price movements would wipe out dealing costs? Would a 1000 shares buy as opposed to 100 mean that a small price move net profits thereby clearing costs quicker than if I'd bought only the 100?

 It might seem obvious but is a good strategy to always buy a certain minimum quantity given that I'm starting with a small pot? I enjoy the website

 Andrew - my view tends to be it's not really worth buying any share unless you're putting in at least £1,000 but preferably £2,000.

 After the spread, stamp duty and broker commission buying something like £100 of shares is just a waste of time and money.

 If you only have a small amount it might be better to do pretend trades and practise rather than putting money in.

 But the main thing always is: don't put in money you can't afford to lose - and be realistic with that!!!

 And this from Keith - who thinks he's been shorting the market too early..

 I jumped into puts too quickly. I think quite a few other people must have thought along the same lines judging from the recent put buying and excitement on the BB's at Footsies sudden rise.

 My thought process reacted to financial news thus :-Jan 05 Market analysts predict FT100 at 5150 by the end of the year! March 05 Market analysts predict FT100 could be 5150 by the end of the Month!! Buy calls!

May 05 FT100 dips below 4800 Market analysts predict the market will go up/down!

Sell calls, buy puts, just in time to squeeze a little profit. Phew!

26th May May factory orders remain subdued Consumer confidence wanes in May

 31st May Retail outlook worst since 1992, Manufacturing output slides again.1st June Net lending slows in April.2nd June House price slowest growth for 9 years.3rd June Business confidence slides as services slow. 6th June Manufacturing confidence slips again

 7th June May, retail sales still falling. 9th June Output rises but trade gap widens.FT100 tries and fails to breach 5050 buy 4800 puts! Buy 5000 puts when it goes the wrong way!

 13th June May factory gate prices fall. 14th June Inflation stays at 7 year high. FT100 heading past 5100!!!! Sod the stop losses buy more 5000 puts! 29th June June retail sales see fastest drop in 22 years.

 Consumer confidence wanes in June. GDP growth slows in Q1. 30th June House prices ease in June.

 FT100 rise must have peaked! Want to Buy puts but read the footnote on Robbie's website FT100 5200 so resist the urge for now!!

 1st July UK manufacturing slips again FT100 hits 5161. Read Saturday morning newsletter - Market analysts now predict FT100 may be at 5400 by the end of the year!

 Where the **** did the analysts get 5400 from? What happened to their original forecast of 5150? And what about all the bad news we've been digesting week after week?

 Oh DOH! Forgot to factor in that seven of the Boe panel members decided not to cut interest rates but more importantly two members wanted one!

 Two members have this much influence??? Or have I missed some other vital news? Perhaps the UK economy really is in good shape after all, it's certainly better than some, perhaps pessimism has been overdone.

 Interesting mail! I guess it goes to show how difficult it is to call an index like the FTSE 100 and that's why I personally have been rubbish at playing it. I agree it looks like a short now, but you'd have to be brave to go in against the strength.

 I think it seems to be that the FTSE oil stocks have a major bearing on it and have been pushing the FTSE up and also interest rates here look like coming down which the markets like.

Brian has this to say:

Hi Robbie, It may well have been mentioned by others, but Dragon is a fully listed UK stock, and is also listed on a recognised overseas exchange, so it is ISA eligible on both counts.

 I've held it in both ISA & PEP accounts with five different brokers over the last three years, and have never had any problems. Anyhow, congratulations on a good oil sector pick!

 Yes, Brian - you are right - I was told by one broker I could not deal in Dragon in my ISA - but the others all say it's OK. I have re-called the original broker and mentioned some very bad words!

 One new trade made yesterday afternoon - and that's in Galliford Try (GFRD) - I bought 15,000 shares at 60p Stop loss 55p, target 72p.

 The shares have gone slightly higher already since I bought, now at 60-62, a bigger spread than normal which makes me think the market-makers are a bit short. (Although deals within the spread are easy).

 Galliford is a similar company to another fave of mine, Costain - in fact they sometimes work on joint projects.

 Compared to Costain it seems undervalued at this price. Fair value to me is nearer 70p than 60p.

 As with Costain they are winning some great long-term contracts, and I think the share will simply be a long-term winner - I think you can hold Galliford and Costain for a long time and simply see your wealth increase!

 The City seems slowly to be waking up to the value of holding companies like Galliford and Costain and both shares have plenty of upside even if the main market tanks. So anyway I'm tucking GFRD away for what should be some excellent rises ahead.

 A really excellent day for the portfolio with several stocks flying! I don't have a single losing position at the moment and some huge winners.

 My buy of Telecom Plus now looks superbly timed and in a few days I'm already up nearly 20% - it's passed my target with ease but with the 173p area gone, we could see another leg up to the 200p level so I'm holding for a bit longer.

 Not surprisingly some profit-taking in yesterday's buy Dragon Oil after its massive rise yesterday. I think the profit-takers will regret it!

 Sondex is shooting higher - a break up through 225 would look bullish. Carrs Milling is heading back up towards the 600p area which is at least what it's worth.

 My recovery play First Tech has moved up 30 points now since I bought a few days ago, and up another 6 points today.

 A move through 300 could see further rewards. All in all I am a very happy bunny with a great-looking portfolio.

Monday 4th July

 Well, it's been a busy old trading day for me!  I've bought into two new companies, actually one new company and one investment trust.

 Also bought a high risk company for my high-risk SIPP which if you are on my e-mail list you should get today.

 Unbelievably I'm already up nearly 30% the a share I bought early this morning for my high risk SIPP - those of you on my e-mail list will find out all about it!

 As you all are aware oil companies are hot - I've made a fortune especially out of Burren Energy and a few quid out of Emerald Energy.

 Of course it could be a bubble - on the other hand the bubble may not yet be at its peak and I think it's worth the risk that the bubble is going to rise a bit more before bursting. So I'm buying into another oil company that could see further good rises.

 It's called Dragon Oil (DGO). Irritatingly I could only buy it for my SIPP because as it's an Irish company it's not eligible for ISA's (bizarre or what - no logic in that is there?)

 I bought 5,000 shares at 109.9 - target 140p stop 100p. As I couldn't buy for the ISA's I also bought using a spreadbet for £70 a point at 111. (That's the extra spread charged by the spread firm which is how they make their profits).

 I buy with gritted teeth because I bought this a while back at something like 30p and sold at 40p - if only I'd held on.

 Nevertheless even at this much higher price it's worth going in I think. Obviously there are risks involved here but the company is progressing extremely well and profits are rolling in.

 Not that this really matters in a bubble. It's likely to start getting noticed by bigger players at this stage and it's already been in part bid talks once. Could easily be a bid target again. So all in all looking at the risk/reward ratio this one looks good on the reward side!

 Second buy today is an investment trust that just keeps going slowly and steadily higher and looks a good ISA stock.

 I bought 3,200 shares in Templeton Emerging Markets Trust (TEM) at 197.85p. Target 220p, stop 190p.

 Emerging markets are, like oil, another hot sector of the market and this gives me exposure to this without, for the moment, too much risk.

 This fund looks to be well managed and the net asset value continues to increase very nicely. Looks a good solid play with plenty of upside and for the short term, not much downside.

 The portfolio continues to perform well and the market continues to surprise me with so much upside - there is no point in shorting while the strong uptrend continues - it is far too hard to call a top.

 Thursday's buy Vislink is showing strength today which is very promising as it's rising still despite its recent strong performance. Also good rises coming in for Carrs Milling, Isotron and First Tech.

 Burren is still finding trouble getting over 690 mark - it had another stab today - it should not be too long in coming!!

 What can I say about the markets? I hope you are all making money. I know one or two of you have shorted the FTSE - you may have to wait a bit to make a profit on that. I'd like to short too but I would rather lose a few points than short at the wrong time again.

Thursday 30th June

Thanks to all of you who've e-mailed in regarding Christopher and the not putting on weight problems.

 It's really kind of you all to be so concerned and we will look carefully and all the points you have all raised. I try not to go on about it too much on the website but can't help myself!

 Thanks to Bill for this kind e-mail: 'Nice to see you have your priorities right. News of baby Christopher first - then the markets.

 I can tell you that many of your followers will agree with me. Thanks to your past advice on investing I have been able to claw back a lot of my losses so I never miss a day reading your site but I have to admit I get just as much pleasure reading about Christopher. I sincerely hope everything turns out right for you.'

Thanks Bill, I'm sure it will!

 I'm feeling a bit rough today - maybe it was the stress from yesterday - but I'm aching all over and have got a massive headache. Perhaps I should just go to bed for the rest of the day.

 Onto the markets, I'm sitting on some huge profits and despite the fact I think markets are overvalued, there's no reason not to run with current sentiment.

 In fact there are one or two shares I'd like to buy but the portfolio is so strong there's nothing I want to sell to raise the cash.

 An excellent statement from White Young Green makes the shares sit tantalisingly at 300p. The company says full year profits will be significantly ahead - so there is little reason for the shares to drop and a lot of reason for the price to keep going!

 Telecom Plus continues its journey back up. I didn't read the full director buying statement - thanks to a reader for letting me know - but a whole raft of directors have bought shares including a buy of 500,000 by Charles Wigoder, the head man.

 Another director bought 175,000 shares. No wonder the shares suddenly jumped higher and they obviously believe the company is now seriously undervalued.

 Burren is down today on a 'broker note'! I don't know how they let brokers get away with issuing statements that move the markets so much.

 These statements (often inaccurate) are usually used by market makers to move shares around and get them more business. As for the brokers they have their own agenda, I'd better not say any more! I'm holding!!

 Small rises from Sondex and Erinaceous today otherwise it's a rather quiet spell for the portfolio which given the recent good gains is just fine.

Tuesday 28th June


 Wow - a fantastic couple of days away. (Helped by coming back Monday lunchtime to see the portfolio still soaring!)

 Stock market historian David Schwartz put on an excellent spread at his gorgeous country house near Bath.

 I met some very interesting people, especially one of CNBC's presenters - but I'm afraid the conversations will have to be off the record, it is only fair.

 Onwards then to a beautiful little hotel - The Burleigh Court Hotel which is in the middle of nowhere and has a brilliant Victorian plunge pool!

 So instead of waking up to my terminal yesterday I woke up to stunning views of the countryside - certainly puts things into perspective. I also had a plunge in the pool which was great fun.

 Christopher enjoyed himself as well though he did not fancy a plunge judging by the look on his face!

 We're taking Christopher to a top private paediatrician tomorrow morning as we are still worried he's not putting on weight. You certainly climb a wall of worry as a parent.

 Of course as our daughter died tragically, we are probably over protective but you can understand why.

 A dip in the postbag - a great mail from reader David:

 'I was much amused by your view of the lady beachcomber you met on holiday and her intended move to Australia.

 After running my wife's small business and driving a black cab in London I spent the last 10  years building up a reasonable wedge of capital in the market using all the money we never put into a pension fund (because I didn't trust them).

 Now at 56, because we took over responsibility for our financial position we have that capital to support us, and we're off to Australia permanently in a couple of months when they issue our visa.

 We'll buy a motorhome and go live on the beach, trading UK shares via GPRS. Never been to Australia, never lived in a motorhome, never used GPRS, don't know anyone who has done any of these things.

 Crazy or adventurous? Time will tell but there's an old saying: 'life is an adventure or it is nothing'. But I don't regard us as being adventurous, rather we are working our assets, be they based on finances, time, technology or attitude. I suspect your holiday friend may have been of the same mind.

Love your website, read it everyday

 Thanks David. Life is for living and that's exactly what you are going to do - live it!! All the best for your new life in Australia - let us know how you get on!

 Some trading to report! Bizarre it may be but a sell and a buy of Telecom Plus! Before I go any further as I always point out, I am obviously biased towards this company and am in love as it helped me out of the rat race!

 So please bear this in mind when I make any comments about it! I strongly urge you not to be tempted to follow me as usual with share buys.

 When I got back yesterday I sold at 157.5 for a loss of £1,250 because it had broken down through the important 165-175 area. The share is being hit by the high oil price and the company's failure to hedge, coupled with what looks like some shorting.

 However this morning the shares tumbled to 150 or so. Even bearing in mind the oil disaster with a PE of under 13, a market cap under 100m and no statement likely for a long time it looks likely to become a trading stock and I bought on the instinct that 150 will prove a bottom for a while at least.

 So I bought 3,500 shares at 152p. Target 170p, stop loss 140p. When the turnaround for the company comes, I reckon it'll be big - and fast. Some good buying in the 153 area too.

 An interesting report from First Technology this morning which has seen the shares go up nicely. It shows the company is in the first stages of what could be a good recovery and my timing looks like it was spot on. Some nice massive buys going in today.

 The only stock in the portfolio that is currently a loser is Chime. The company announced a placing today at 26p which helps them raise money to buy another company.

 I am feeling very tempted to sell and cut losses. However the fact the company is supported at this kind of price is just making me hold on but any dip below 26 will see an immediate sell.

 What can I say about Burren as it heads onwards and upwards - I can hardly believe my 700
year end target is pretty much here already.

 What a bonus as I personally head up towards the £50,000 profit mark from all my Burren buying. My website buys at 241 and recent at 466 are looking rather healthy! Staying with oils, Emerald too is heading nicely higher though the mm's are playing games.

 Carrs Milling always stays quiet but when it moves it's usually a quick 20 points in either direction as the 3 mm's have the share at their mercy. I'm ignoring and staying with the long-term uptrend. Dignity continues to go up slowly and surely over time - a real good winner of a share.

Wendesday 22nd June


  The new series of The Apprentice USA starts tonight! Do not miss! BBC2 after Newsnight or BBC3 at 9pm - should be a cracker!

 Met a very interesting lady in Ibiza. She's about 60 years old and claims to be a 'beatnik' - which is kind of a pre-hippy hippy brought up in the early 50s.

 She's spent her whole life out of the rat race - doing a bit here and there to get by and she's about to go to Australia - she travels alone and seems to love it!

 Good for her - maybe some of us in our heart of hearts would be interested in that kind of lifestyle but we may be a bit too scared!

 Christopher seems to have settled back in at home - but afraid I have bad news for you my boy - we're off on another holiday though this one is a long weekend.

 On Sunday we are all off to stock market historian David Schwartz's summer BBQ. He lives near Bath so it's about a 2 hours drive so we're going to spend Sunday night in a nearby hotel and maybe another day if the weather holds.

 David has a terrific country mansion - it used to be a hotel and there are some fabulous grounds - some top people from the finance world going and I'm looking forwards to talking to some of them.

 An interesting mail from Dylan regarding the excellent TV show about the secretary who stole £4m from her bosses at Goldman Sachs.

 Did you see that programme on 'the woman who stole 4 million' ? I have had mixed thoughts on this, for example, firstly when the news originally broke I thought, caught red handed deserved what she got.

 As an employer the thought of someone stealing from me horrifies me, especially because I'm such a generous guy at the best of times. Then watching the programme I was flabbergasted of the sheer stupidity of her mangers, allowing her to prepare personal cheques and in some cases doing electronic transfers.

 I then started to feel that she was being exploited, and yes she kind of deserved the money. However as the programme went on It became apparent that she really was a greedy cow and she wasn't taking it to survive but to spend frivolously. Well her number was up when she tried to take £2.5m off a guy, and she got banged up for a rather long time.

 However what has flabbergasted me more than anything was in the closing credits of the programme it stated how much jail time she got, and that the money was slowly being recovered from her estate. It then went on to say that Goldman Sachs had reimbursed all of its employees that had been affected by her crimes. WHAT!

 Firstly as an investor I am extremely concerned that these so called high flying city slickers who are in charge of large investment funds (or similar) paid millions in bonus's could not even manage their own finances, and lost out in £ 0000's of pounds without knowing.

 Secondly, and more importantly, if I were holding shares in Goldman Sachs I would want to know why my company is employing people to carryout personal tasks for its employees, surely these employees should be working on company business and activities, they are not royalty, and they certainly earn enough to employ their own PAs if warranted. Surely this is crime in itself !!!!!

 Thanks Dylan. I guess they make so much money they don't care about it anymore which is why she didn't get caught early on.

 As an employer myself I have to deal with small-scale stealing at my cafe. I usually spot when they start because their behaviour changes. I reckon people who steal want to get caught to put them out of their misery. She wanted to get caught I'm sure.

 Turning now to market action and I quickly disposed of my spread and other position in Hitachi Credit as soon as the market opened.

 Though trading on a low PE and still looking OK value wise the AGM statement was too cautious for my liking and I exited not because I think the shares will tumble very far but because there is a little uncertainty now which wasn't there before so upside suddenly becomes very limited for the next few weeks.

 Interesting that I found it easier to get out of my spread position at a much better price than I could in the normal market.

 The spread guys got me out in just a minute at 243p, giving me a profit of £25. But my order in the market took time to go through and I only got 238p to take a loss of £275.

 My sells were completely unemotional - I do like the company but the AGM statement told me to get out.

 Yesterday's buy of Vanco is going well - it's trying to get towards the 400p mark which may prove a hurdle - through that and 450 should arrive in due course at which point I would take profits.

 Recent buy Erinanceous has seen a very nice rise today and this looks like a good breakout - a statement is due shortly and a good one could see a lift above 300p.

 Some stirring from their slumbers in Broadcastle and Brammer - two shares that when they do decide to go up jump all of a sudden.

 Carrs Milling has also gone up after a deep sleep and the same comment applies - given favourable market conditions these three should pay out.

 A small pullback in Burren is nothing to be worried about and I'm holding grimly, baby! The FTSE continues to look so strong that 5,200 is now on the cards at which point I would consider getting on my shorting boots.. all in good time...

Tuesday 21st June


  Right, where was I, going on about the holiday. So on Thursday we went into the small town down the road from the villa to grab a coffee (and a crafty look at my shares at the net place for me). Had a nice couple of hours and returned to where we parked the car, which wasn't there!

 'Great!' I said. 'This adds to the total.. now stolen on this holiday, one digital camera, one video camera, one mobile phone and now.. one car!!'

 Well, actually we laughed.. I guess you have to! We walked down to the local police station manned by one cop who was half asleep.

 'Ah,' he said. 'You park in no park place so we tow away...' He wanted 50 euros for us to get the car back. I'm not one to be suspicious but it looked like he made up the price and pocketed the cash.

 Seems like some kind of local scam - stick up an obscure sign - wait for tourists to park, and bingo - collect the cash!

 Well, it could have been worse, the car could have been stolen I guess. Tomorrow I will chat about an interesting lady we met (the caretaker at the villa) who is a 'beatnik' rather than a 'hippy'.

 I've pretty much got through all my e-mails now so you should have had replies.. the mailbag is back open!

 A quick moan (sorry!) to those of you wanting to join my e-mail list by sending back your forms for the £19.95 broadband/free phone calls package... I'm having to re-send some forms back to some of you because you haven't filled them up right!

 Pleeasssseee make sure you sign the form in both places and fill up all the boxes, and please remember to put your credit card number on the form too. This saves me and you time and effort!

 My Big Brother betting is looking tasty. my bet on Makosi to win at 13 is already yielding a good profit with the spread up to 23. (That's £200 profit if I close out now). But I believe she will win and if she does I'll net over £700.

 My Roberto short looks good too as he's likely to be out soon netting me nearly £300. My most risky bet is a Kemal short which I'm slightly down on but the camp chap may run out of steam.


 A new buy today and it's a return to a company I really like and respect - Vanco (VAN). I've made many thousands buying and selling Vanco in the past and now I reckon is the time to get back in.

 As many of you are probably aware I've held on to some shares since they were 181p although not for the website. I've played this one and made profits several times and I hope to repeat the trick now.

 The company looks like it's in the middle of a deserved re-rating to around 450p and I bought 2,000 shares to top up at 371.628 (crazy price!) Stop 340 - target 450.

 I bought when the price was already up 5p. The breakout today looks powerful and this one could easily leap higher.

 I visited the company for the Sunday Times a few months ago and was very pleased with what I saw - the head guy is a determined man and I was really impressed.

 The staff are all extremely motivated (with good share options) and the company has a tremendous niche in computer networking with big clients and unbreakable multi year contracts - one of their customers for example is Avis - so anytime you book a car rental with Avis anywhere in the world, it'll be Vanco's software sorting your booking.

 Some changes to the portfolio today - first a couple of sales to report. As mentioned yesterday, I have to sell Dart as it's going to AIM and so I can't hold in my tax free status ISAs and peps so reluctantly I sold at 302.5 early this morning (3,250 shares).

 That's a profit of £130 on my recent buy and a profit of £59 on the original buy to make a total profit of £189.

 I'm bitterly disappointed about the company's decision to move to AIM forcing long-term investors like me, and some institutions out. Oh well, I still think it's a good company and it'll do well on AIM I suspect.

 Shame it all happened when I was on holiday otherwise I'd have come out with a much bigger profit - never mind.

 The second sell is a big disappointment - but the market has not been speaking in its favour recently and a fall this morning pushing it below my stop loss prompted me to sell Gibbs for 395.15 for a loss of £415 on the last buy and £175 on the second to record a total loss of £590.

 I didn't listen to the market, more fool me! Well, as I always say the ability to take a loss when it needs to be taken is one of the most important lessons to learn as an investor -learn that, take losses when you're wrong and you're on your way to making money!

 I've decided to exit my Blacks Leisure short at 433 for a loss of £250 - the share seems to have found a bottom and it looks like it wants to go up - simple as that!

 My oil plays continue to bring in the loot with yet another good rise for Burren Energy... Emerald Energy is also now joining in the party and the rise today over 180p looks very promising. Any rise over 200p could re-open 240p.

 Yesterday's buys First Technology and Sondex are both looking strong after some nice rises, more to come for both of these I reckon.

 Rotork managed a good rise above 500p late yesterday - if it can hold above 500p for the close today that would look bullish.

Monday 20th June


  Wow, that was an excellent holiday! I am back all refreshed with a portfolio that is a lot higher in value than when I left - what more could a man want?

 I'll tell you bits about the holiday as the week progresses! A fantastic villa - huge swimming pool, lovely views and completely cut off up a dirt track - I must admit lying in the hammock listening to birds singing and looking at nature all around was just fab.

 Christopher was a bit bewildered by the whole thing but seemed to enjoy trying to undo the bra straps of the two young ladies who looked after him while we were out.. a true Burns!

 As well as the huge cost of the villa (well worth it) on the first day stolen from my luggage were: 1video camera, 1 digital camera, 1 mobile phone.

 Arrrggghh! I have no idea when they were lifted. It'll cost me in excess fees to claim on the insurance policy (of course - you never get back the whole lot do you?).

 Luckily the mobile was insured under Telecom Plus' policy so a new one arrived this morning at no charge except a £15 excess. Note to you all: look after your valuables on holiday and keep cameras with you!

 On top of all that we parked the hire car on a side street to get a coffee and on return.. it was gone!!! More on this tomorrow (I like my cliffhangers these days).

 The villa had Sky so I had access to Bloomberg so could see most of the prices of my stocks which was really handy and saved me from bothering with an internet cafe.

 It was rather nice at the end of every day to see Burren Energy's share price soaring and after doing nothing for a whole week I've made nearly £7,000 thanks to Burren!

 So after all the worrying about going away and whether to sell up my strategy of leaving my positions open proved a good one.

 Right, quite a bit of trading to get through after my week away. Firstly my position in Admiral was closed out at 389p on Tuesday while I was away on expiry day - I forgot to roll over! Still, actually that's probably a good thing and profit banked is a very nice £1,860.

 The Admiral spread buy proved a winner right from the start and this profit came with no worries at all all the way up!

 After my rest I suppose I was very keen to get trading and I launched in with two new buys early this morning!!

 First trade was a return to a buy in Sondex (SDX). Interesting because I think oil supply companies like this could see a boom. If you remember I last bought these at 160 and took profits at 229 and 198.

 I saw while I was away the price started to rise and was interested to see it beginning a rise this morning.

 With only one market maker left at 212p I tried to buy some but couldn't get any online and I knew if I left an order in the market it would take a few minutes and I'd miss the price.

 So.. I quickly called Cantor Index who quoted me a buy price of 214p (the extra 2p is their profit margin). I took the quote and bought at £30 a point (same as 3,000 shares). This proved a wise move as in just a few minutes the shares went up to 217p to buy.

 This is where spread betting sometimes comes into its own. You can buy shares that would be difficult to get in the normal market. Stop loss is 200p, target 245p.

 The other trade is a bit bizarre - it was a share I was looking at shorting because it's been falling off a cliff - however when it came up as a short on having a good look at it I changed my mind and it looked an excellent recovery play!

 So instead of shorting I went long and bought 2,000 shares in First Technology (FRS) at 265.75p. Stop loss a tight 255p, target 300p. These have been tumbling all the way from over 400p quite quickly.

 However after poring over the fundamentals the shares now look a touch undervalued so I'm in for what I think might be a quick bounce up to 300p. Just in case this is a false rise I'd get out fast if it started dropping again.

 Turning to other shares, White Young Green's up 10p since I went on holiday and looks good.
Good old Burren has soared by nearly 100p since I left and my year end target of 700-800 looks like it may be achieved rather sooner than September.

 Profits for the website alone are now more than £10,000 and I'm getting close to trebling my money on my first buy.

 I was horrified to see Dart is moving to AIM! This means I have to sell them before the move in August. What are the management thinking of? The results were great but the move to AIM means tracker funds have sold causing the price to tumble.

 I will pick my time carefully for the sell and I need to decide whether to see quickly as it goes ex dividend for 4.7p on Wednesday. I think they are crazy to move to AIM just to save a few quid. I do suspect the shares will move up again once the Isa sellers are out of the way.

 Telecom Plus looks like it's about to become a trading buy - once it goes ex dividend probably - if I can buy at the 170p level that will look like a good price. (Remember I made a right few quid buying at 174 and selling at 220 last time).

 Emerald Energy has joined the boom in smaller oil stocks while I was away and has been going up today. Roll on 200p!

 Erinaceous is looking good today and a break through this 275p area should see 300p fast. A statement is due soon.

Friday 10th June


  So, are you going to miss me? Never mind, it's only a week, you'll get over it.  Sunny Ibiza beckons and we're off on an early flight on Saturday morning - got to get up at 3.30am - yikes!

 Packing? Not started. Too busy trying to decide if I have any ropey positions and whether to sell them before I go and also whether to roll over spread positions. Tricky!

 Going from Luton, just hope all the jokes that it's a bit of a ****hole (the airport not the town as a whole) are incorrect.

 We have a massive suitcase to be filled with Christopher's things. We went to Mothercare to buy some toys... mainly for me and I've been enjoying them!

 I will see if I can get round to updating from Ibiza so check in from time to time, but can't promise anything.

 I've had a good look at the portfolio and nothing is screaming at me to sell while I'm, away for the week - I'll keep an eye on things from the net cafe and take action if I really need to. I hope you all have a great week with your shares.

 I leave the BB betting looking good with excellent profits already on Roberto, a break into profits with the Makosi buy and breaking even on the short of Kemal.

 Another excellent day for the portfolio with my value shares still moving higher and pretty much everything is in a good profit. The only disappointment is Chime although recent action shows a climb is on the cards.

 King of the portfolio continues to be Burren which just keeps rolling in the profits for me and more to come by the look of it.

 VP Group is building on the gains after its statement and this move above 200 looks very encouraging indeed. Emerald is back on the march upwards at last.

 Telecom Plus has fallen after a statement which revealed their gas hedging cock-up is still costing them and will do for the next year.

 Shares look to be fair value for now around 180p-220p and I expect the shares will now osolate between this range for a while. Like last time if they ended up touching anywhere near 175p they'd be an excellent trading buy.

 They got into energy at the wrong time and this is holding back the decent profits from other areas. Looks to me as though the huge dividend will give plenty of support to the shares and I'll continue to stick mine away in a drawer and hold, and pick up the divis.

 They are launching some new services soon and one suspects the company is heading towards the end of the teething problems - once this is established the price will rise again. They've taken on some new managers with good-looking CV's recently too.

 Customer services have been sorted out - when I asked for roaming to be added to my mobile phones for Ibiza the phone was answered in ten seconds which is a good sign.

 Costain is trying hard to get above 50p and this looks well undervalued - another good solid long-term hold.

 White Young Green, Brammer and Broadcastle are three solid companies that again I feel confident that tucking them away for a while will produce good profits.

 So all in all I go on holiday with a strong-looking portfolio with a good mix of the solid and risky.

 I reckon I could not look at the markets for a week and come back with no damage done! Well, we shall see!

Tuesday 07th June


   I'm definitely going to need a holiday to get over next week's holiday. Christopher is a very small boy yet it looks like his stuff will take up 90% of the enormous cases we are taking with us.

 Baby sun tan lotion, baby food, baby clothes, baby this that and the other - there's just about room for one pair if trousers for me and a couple of T-shirts!

 Every day some parcel seems to have arrived for him as Mrs NT embarks on what looks like a credit-card battering spending spree. Sod it, maybe I should take those ads for the site and forget about being a nice guy!

 Sometimes I think it's time to end this site as it takes up a lot of my time every day. And strangely nearly everytime I nearly come to the decision to say bye bye I get a nice e-mail which changes my mind. So thank you reader Charles for this which has made me decide to keep the site going for at least a bit longer...

 'Delighted to read the excellent news about your profits of £150,000. I am sure that it is well deserved for all the hard work that you have done.

 I read your site every day and have done so for over 2 years. I have also followed your advice and I DO NOT buy any of your shares but I do enjoy reading about your skill and expertise. I am looking forward to buying your book at the end of the month for me to take on holiday on the 3rd of July.

 With very best wishes to you and your wife and baby son. You must be very proud. It will be a sad day (for me) when you finally take your family and ride off into the sunset. And to think that I used to follow the advice of Tom Winnifrith....'

OK Charles, thanks. So that's more work for me every day for a while longer then!

 After loads of trades these last few days just one tiny sell of Radstone today - sold at 251.99p. It was only a small gamble and a ten point reversal today made me jump ship to take a tiny loss of £30 which I shan't be worrying about!

 Otherwise a rather quiet day with the porfolio still going great guns. Burren continues to be by best investment by a long way - I'm roughly in profits by nearly £35,000 since I first bought at 241p. Letting the profits run on this one has proved very tasty.

 It's up again today and as I said before any more above 570p will be a very bullish signal. The question is: could it possibly do a Cairn?

 I'm extremely happy with my timing on my buy of Isotron on Friday. Bought at 598 in just two days it's rocketed to 635p. Some very big buys going in here and I wonder whether there is a big contract/bid/good news about to be announced.

 Costain is started to move which looks good news - any rise/close above 50p should open up 54p in time. A good solid hold this one.

 Yesterday's buy White Young Green holds well a bit higher. MM's are only offering 1,500 shares online on the buying side but 4,000 on the sell side - a pretty good sign it ought to carry on rising shortly!

 Brammer goes ex dividend tomorrow for 3 and a half pence so should start the day down 3 or 4 pence. Anyone buying today gets the dividend. I think it's worth holding for the divi and further capital growth

 I'm on the verge of taking Cattles profits. The FTSE keeps trying to stay above 5,000 but is finding it hard work!

Monday 06th June


  Hurrah - as I took profits for the site today for the first time ever my website profits have reached over £150,000 for the first time!!

 Well, actually if I took all the profits sitting in the portfolio it would be nearer £160,000 - but I only allow banked profits and losses - not paper ones which seems fair.

 With dividends likely to outstrip costs judging by my Sipp and with no tax to pay thanks to ISA's I feel very proud. Especially given they are all real trades at real prices with no dodgy mid price business. So well done me!

 Look, if I didn't congratulate myself no one else will.. afraid us Brits prefer losers as, let's face it, it's more entertaining. Anyway I'm now aiming for £200,000 by year end. Tough, but you never know.

 Do you know I could make a fortune out of this website if I accepted all the companies who wanted to advertise?

 But I can't in my heart of hearts have ads on this site which say 'make 42% in a week!' Or 'Turn £2,000 into £70,000 in six months'.

 Because I don't really believe it. I can't think of anything worse than getting an e-mail from a reader along the lines of.. 'I bought this system through your site and I've lost a fortune and it's all your fault!'

 The only advertisers you see here are companies I use and trust. And I get them to give some decent discounts too!

 I make some pocket money out of it to cover a small amount of the time I put into the site and I can send my long-suffering webmaster a few quid from time to time.

 Oh well, maybe I won't make my fortune from advertisers but I'll get it all back in good karma.. or something like that.

 It's almost worth it for the surprise element when someone asks to advertise and I say 'No'. 'What - you don't want the money - are you nuts?' I guess they're not used to being turned down.

 I've been trading quite a bit the last couple of weeks to good success and some more trades today.

 First a buy - and that's in White Young Green (WHY) where I bought 3,000 shares at 265p (the shares were already up 4p on the day). Target 295p stop 250p.

 Those of you with good memories will remember I bought these at 200 and sold at 290 for an excellent profit over six months last year. Since my sale they've drifted - but it looks like it's time to get in again.

 The reason I bought was the sudden upward movement in the shares this morning after an age of doing nothing - I find this usually a good sign with small cap shares and with WHY in particular it can often move fast after a long plateau.

 The company itself looks in great shape with profits and dividends rising nicely - and even if the market heads lower generally they are likely to keep their value.

 Basically it looks like a cracking low risk buy with at least ten percent upside to come. Any break over 290p would look very bullish and open up 320p.

 I also bought £20 of WHY on the spreads (not for website purposes) - I actually asked for £30 a point but Cantor knocked me back to £20. That's probably good news!

 In order to get the cash to buy WHY I had to sell something - it was a close call as to what to take profits on but I decided it would be Kier.

 The main reason being it was starting to fall and though I think it's undervalued, technically it could fall 20/30 points before rising again (and hopefully I'll pick them up again a bit lower).

 So I sold at 890p (real trade 1,650 shares). For the site that's a profit of £455 for the shares bought at 836p and a profit of £400 on the ones bought at 840.

 I also took a profit on my spread bet long which was sold at 891 to take a profit of £390 to make a very nice total profit of £1,245.

 Friday's buy Isotron has really motored this morning - up 17p - already putting me into a nice profit - but much more to come I reckon.

 Also motoring bigtime is Burren Energy - as I said, once 535 was broken, 570 would be the next stop. After that the sky's the limit! My recent buy at 469p is looking pretty good with the shares nearly 100p higher already!

 Emerald and Costain are creeping up today. Broadcastle and Brammer are holding well at higher levels as is Erinaceous.

 Telecom Plus is creeping up ahead of results due this week. It will be interesting to see if the problems with the gas have got better although losses from the lack of hedging are still expected for the next year. Broadband and phone sales should show good growth.

 So basically another excellent day on the markets. As Fraser remarked in Dad's Army is probably means I'm 'doomed'! I remain vigilant against a sudden stocks slide!

Friday 03rd June


  Thanks for all your mails suggesting I've probably paid way over the top at £2,500 for a week in Ibiza! Some of you reckon £500 should be nearer the mark, but I do feel you all miss the point!

 I really want a hassle free holiday in a very nice place and I do have to pay for the flight of the babysitter! By the way, I'm not off till Monday after next but thanks for the bon voyage messages!

 Just as well I've got another week to work the markets because I have some big profits building up in my last ten buys and at least I've got another 5 days to decide whether or how much to take!

Here are the last ten buys I've made and the prices I paid - prices now in brackets!

Brammer 157.38 (163.9)

Broadcastle 97 (102)

Radstone 255 (262)

Carrs 504.5 (552)

Burren 466.2 (550)

Kier 840 (895)

Cattles 304.75 (315)

Hitachi 249 (252)

Not bad, eh!

 Two new trades to report both made this morning - both returns to shares I've bought before.
First up is Isotron (ISO) - I took huge profits on these a few weeks ago by buying in the 400s and selling in the late 500s.

 Some buys coming in this morning and yesterday have tempted me in to ride what I believe will be another wave higher.

 I picked up 1,500 shares at 598p. Target 650, stop 575. The company is prospering as the population gets older as it specialises in sterilising medical equipment - no reason why the next set of results should not be excellent.

 It pulled back recently from profit takers like me but I think it's likely there will be another wave to ride up now.

 My second buy is a quick return to Erinaceous (ERG). If you remember I sold a few days ago to break even because it wasn't pushing past 270 and I was happy to give away a few points and come back if it broke above.

 I believe it did that today so I've hopped on with 3,000 shares at 274.313p. Target 310p, stop 260p.

 The chart looks very strong now the 270 has been broken. Of course there is the chance it's a false breakout which is why I've set a tight stop loss.

 Another really fantastic day for the portfolio with the star being Burren Energy. As I predicted the break through 535 opened up the current 550 quickly and now it could be a very exciting ride - any more above 570 will see my eventual target of at least 700 arriving!

 I already much more than doubled my money since buying these at 241 and I'm very glad I topped up with more at 466!

 Broadcastle rose again yesterday and the market-makers continue to look short of stock - a much nicer and slower rise than the last time it got to this level which bodes well for a possible smooth and slow ride over 110p.

 Brammer has performed nicely since I bought - another one or two institution buys would help to push it up to 180 at which point it might be profit taking time it it can't push through.

 So it's a very satisfied Robbie at present but that's exactly when you have to stay cautious as the market definitely will bite you in the bum just when you think you've cracked it.

 The only fly in the ointment is my FTSE short but that is an insurance policy and I haven't yet had to pay the premium. We'll see!


Thursday 03rd June

 That's it, we're all packing up in a couple of weeks and heading for Ibiza. It won't be like the old days before me and Elizabeth got married. No clubbing and big nights out!

 No, I'm a responsible parent now. I've splashed out £2,500 for a week - that's our own villa and swimming pool so I can teach Christopher some swimming.

 And we're taking one of the girls from the cafe and her sister who will look after the lad for us sometimes so we can get out and about too!

 There's an internet cafe up the road so I hope to do a couple of updates to the site from the island and bring you some gossip from the Golden Isle - as well as some trading updates! So that'll be from Monday after next.

 Holiday insurance? Booked through utilities discount warehouse of course! £38 for the three of us.

 Well. Sometimes I try to be too clever for my own good when trying to get the right price on a share. This is really annoying!

 I fancied buying Brammer (BRAM) for a while and this morning looked a good time - I saw a couple of big buys going through and thought the offer of 153p or so from the market makers looked good.

 But with 25,000 shares on offer online I reckoned wait a bit and see if I could get a better price. So I went out for a walk, got back and saw the price starting to lift.

 So I ended up buying 10,000 shares at 157.38p, target 190p, stop 145p - considering I could have got 152.8p earlier I am a little pissed off... however I think the price could go to 190p if 180 can be broken.

 Brammer looks a great one to get into for me. It's got everything I look for in a share - liquidity is good, the head cheese has been buying shares. So has one institution - the Prudential.

 Results look great, dividend is up and a positive AGM statement. Cashflow is good profits are heading nicely higher, market cap looks undercooked, just looks like a goodie.

 This share is generally bought and sold by institutions with small punters ignoring it because after all as usual it's not very exciting!

 But a small punter like me can move in and out quicker than an institution which gives me a good advantage.

 I'm not quite sure of my timescale on this one - 180p or so was its peak earlier this year - if it fell away from that I might take profits but if it zoomed through I'd hold. The shares have a great floor at 150p so I don't think any damage to my capital could occur.

 As I write the shares have moved to 157-165p. Could be the earlier big buyers means the market-makers are running a little short.

 It's going to be a very volatile one and I might have to withstand some big tree-shakes but I can see myself hanging on to this one for a bit.

 Finally, I like the fact Brammer spread is actually tiny. For example as I write the real spread (the real market maker offers) is 159-162 which is a nice tiny spread.

 Elsewhere recent buy Broadcastle is looking better and better with bigger buys still coming in and they are still paying over the odds for shares. The nice lift above 100p looks pretty bullish.

 Lots of good gains in what's a great day for the portfolio. Burren is excitingly poised on what looks like a big breakout and I would hope for a close clear of the sticky 535p area. Next stop would then be 550p - after that the sky's the limit!

 Also going higher today is Hitachi Credit and Carrs - both solid shares. Emerald and Kier are also beginning to move back in the right direction after recent falls.

 Some of my spreadbet longs are showing excellent profits especially Admiral, Rotork and Dignity which all look good and strong. The FTSE is still stuck in that tight trading range while the bulls and bears slug it out!


Tuesday 31st May

  That was a great BH weekend, enjoyable and restful at the same time. And when you've got a six month old boy that takes some doing!

 First back to Friday. I toddled off to Lords on the hottest day of the year to meet the chaps from Sporting Index and watch a spot of cricket.

 David Schwartz, my friend the stock market historian, as an American cannot understand why people watch cricket. He said as much to an English friend.

'Nothing happens!' remarked David.

'Precisely!' replied his English friend knowingly!

 And really nothing much does happen. We were playing a crap team so England just piled on the runs.

 What cricket is all about is generally blokes getting out of the house and having a few beers and a chat!

 In fact I only watched about 90 minutes of cricket and spent the rest of the day with the lads from Sporting chatting.

 It's great to meet people who really love their jobs and the guys from Sporting really do! The enthusiasm shines out from them. They even like their boss which is really bizarre!

 I picked up some interesting snippets about spread betting (on sport) but it's only fair that I keep it off the record.

 But it's interesting that they do have the odd big winners out there who consistently make money on sports betting. The winners generally are those who really know their sport.

 And there are some big hitters! One punter apparently had a massive bet of something like £450 a point on the number of runs scored by Bangladesh. Sadly he was on the wrong end of the spread and lost a packet.

 Can you imagine him telling the wife? 'Sorry, darling, in a bit of a hole financially at the moment.. you see Bangladesh didn't score enough runs.'

 Anyway, a big thank you for the day out to Sporting Index. I'm very happy to say I won £30 spread betting with one of the lads.

 I set him a spread and he set me one. Got it right both times. Just as well he had a stop loss on the last one.

 Talking of sports/entertainment spread betting it's Big Bro betting time again. Oh dear, what a bunch of tossers in there (and that's being mild). It looks completely unwatchable this year.. I mean honestly who cares if they all shag each other?

 So although I'm not going to be watching it that closely there should be some betting opportunities and my strategy this year is to look at selling or shorting the early favourites.

 What normally happens is the early favourites end up being the ones chucked out half-way through the show at which point the early outsiders become the new favourites.

 Top of the list of potential shorts are Roberto and Kemal (surely a lady boy can't win twice?)
Derek could be an interesting buy - I'll let things bed down a little more before having a bet or two with Sporting.

 Bet Hi-lo is a trading name of Sporting Index, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

 Held hostage on a bus! Yes. It happened to me over the weekend but let's make this a cliff hanger and I'll tell you all about it tomorrow!!

 The French voted no I see... it was nothing much to do with the EU was it? Like us they all hate their politicians and it was just a vote to piss off their politicians.

 Say what you like about Kinnock and Thatcher but at least they believed in something. The current crop seem to just want the power and that's it.

 One of the country's top traders - and a very clever chap called Richard - has recommended this site to his readers by writing this:

 'Robbie (Burns) continues to demonstrate a refreshingly down to earth approach to trading commentary, with a lot of personal life diary thrown in, and although my methods and approach are diametrically opposite to his and I also do not agree with some of his statements and promotions to which he appears to have sold his ego but, thankfully, not yet his soul, I must recommend to those of you who like to get a feel for positional share trading that you should not miss out on his daily column on www.frequenttrader.info.'

 What he doesn't realise is I've been advertising my soul on E-Bay so it should be sold sometime next week.

 It actually looks a pretty good buy for newer investors because it explains so much about the mysterious workings of the market.

 Puzzled by crazy share moves? The book explains all. And for those of you thinking about getting into CFD's which I am in my SIPP, anyhow there's a great chapter that looks at everything you ever wanted to know about CFD's but were afraid to ask!

 It looks at CFD costs VS normal share buying, the timing of funding costs, how to short sell and how open offers pose risks to shorters. There are also some good examples to follow through.

 I also like the way he looks at many things that I often get e-mails about such as dealing on results day, what share buybacks mean to traders and the risks of short selling.

 I'm a little tight for time today but next week I'll be dipping into the postbag again as there are some interesting comments and mails sitting in my inbox!

 A quietish start to the truncated trading week. I have Radstone on my monitor (RST) and when it moves.. it really moves.

 I caught it moving up and tried to grab 3,000 shares at 255. Alas for me only 1,000 shares were being offered online so I did a dummy buy. I was offered 1,000 shares at 255p and given the usual 15 seconds to accept or decline.

 While the countdown was on the buy price went to 260 - so I thought, well I'd buy anyway even though it's only a small amount. Probably worth it as the shares then raced higher to 265p (to sell).

 So there we are anyway, 1,000 shares at 255p - target 285p, stop 250p. You never know with something like RST - they might announce some kind of big deal.

 I also did a small top up in my holding of Broadcastle (BCS) and bought a further 1,500 shares at 97p to add to the ones already secured at 94p.

 The market-makers are happy to take sells but not so happy to take buys which is a good sign! I've always felt this one is worth at least 120p and it's only a matter of time! Target 120p stop 85p.

 Elsewhere quiet but not bad. Burren looks very strong with the next stop likely to be that sticky 535p area where I might be tempted to take profits on the recent batch bought at 466p. Then again I may not!

 Cattles needs to get above the 320 area to really go higher but has been looking good in the last few sessions. Rotork is proving a good winner but can it get past the 500 zone? I'll find out soon. Everything else looks like it's having another day off.


Thursday 26th May

  Another fab day on the markets for me (obviously bar my insurance style ftse short). Thanks to the Evening Standard market report yesterday which told of bid stories surrounding Whitbread, I got out of my short mighty quick. There's no point in shorting a bid story share and I exited at 851 to take a profit of £255.

 However I feel little joy from this gain because I played it very badly. It reached my target and I could have made over a grand from the trade. Greed got the better of me. Still, as usual I try and learn from any mistakes.

 So all is going well. Star of the day is Kier Group - I now hold nearly £40,000 of shares. Up more than 25 points today - this really was a bargain buy as I pointed out when I bought it and topped up. I also have a decent sized spread bet in this one too.

 Burren is starting to rocket up as I write. My year-end target is still 700p. I think it will take time to get through the sticky 535 area but my top up buy at 466 is looking better and better.

 Hitachi Credit is doing the business today as well and so is Rotork which is rising rapidly. All in all it's been an excellent three or four weeks on the markets and I head off for holiday time feeling very happy with progress. This obviously means the market will crash on Friday while I'm at the cricket!


Wendesday 25th May

  Ow! Handle me carefully! Hangover! What a great night out that was... Went to the opening night of 'Some Girls' - a new play with Friends star David Schwimmer.

 I'm lucky in that my sister is a huge West End impressario and runs Really Useful theatres so she gets us tickets for the big nights but best of all the VIP after parties.

 The play was OK - more of a chick play than a blokey one - but as my sister points out David S is the big draw and the play will end up being sold out whatever the critics make of it.

 Great acting all round - one to take the wife to. It's only 90 minutes with no interval so why not do the play then a meal afterwards?

 So we were ushered into the VIP area of this party jam packed with celebs and various hangers on like me and Elizabeth!

 Very cool party, think Miami style. Lots of fab cocktails and Asian style food. I did meet David Schwimmer but after shaking his hand the best I could do was 'great to meet you.'

 Elizabeth is a big fan of Friends but she was a bit overawed so she said the same thing. My sister told him: 'You were right - you weren't nervous!'

 Basically put the party was split into two camps - the extremely good-looking actors/celebs, show offs.. and then the ordinary looking folk who, well put up the money so the good-looking ones can show off!

 David S ended up surrounded by a bevvy of beauties all competing for his attention. He has a number of burly bodyguards who he has to take with him everywhere. (Phew - glad I'm not a big star in that case).

 I met some interesting people. One elderly lady impressario with some great stories of days gone by.

 Also a lawyer who works on some of the big financial deals. And this is hilarious and I quote him directly:

 'Financial journalists are the laziest people I have ever come across. They do no work, re-hash press releases and most of their other stories are completely inaccurate!'

 Having been a financial journalist he is absolutely right!! You see editors don't really care much about the financial part of their papers so finance hacks get away mainly with writing crap. Or they just phone 'experts' to get easy stories. Bear this in mind when you read things in the financial pages!

 Anyway had a great time and we rolled home at 1am. I must have had about four cocktails and right now I feel like crap - just as well the markets are going so well for me as that gives me the energy to keep going!

 Wow! A brilliant day on the markets for me and my last few buys have seen cracking results
Roxboro bought at 381, sold at 426. Carrs bought at 504.5 now 542p.

 Dart bought at 296 now 307, Emerald bought at 138.5p now 157p, Kier bought at 840 now 872, and Burren bought at 466p now 503p . What more could a man want?

 All these shares are rising rapidly at the moment and I'm glad I was brave enough to buy them at rock bottom prices when everything looked bad.

 Plenty of others rising for me today as well including Cattles which was in the doghouse is now actually showing a profit. Again, glad I had the guts to hang on.

 VP made a good rise yesterday afternoon and apart from Chime and my insurance, the Ftse short, the portfolio looks outstanding.

 Burren is rising strongly after a confident AGM statement today, all looks tickety boo there. It should get up to at least 535p again.

 Carrs and Dart simply are rising daily and Kier is still one of the most undervalued shares on the market.

 A couple of new trades made yesterday afternoon - firstly I've completely changed positions on Derwent Valley and gone long instead of short!!

 So I closed at 1125 to take a loss of £520 and then opened on the long side at 1125 for £5. Hoping I'll at least get my money back by reversing as the breakout looks very strong indeed.

 And I re-shorted Blacks Leisure (BSLA) for £25 a point at 423p, stop loss 440p, target 390p. The chart looks like a right state, the only possible rescue would be a bid but that looks unlikely.


Tuesday 24th May

  Nice start to the day to see recent buy Roxboro up more than 30p to follow on another rise of more than 20p late yesterday, more on that and some very quick profits racked up shortly.

 Off to the opening night of a new play in the West End starring Friends actor David Schwimmer  and then off to the party afterwards, thanks to my sister who runs most of the West End theatres as she's the head honcho at Really Useful Theatres!

 We've got great seats in row 2 and Elizabeth is very keen to meet Schwimmer as she's a fan of Friends (though I'm not). I just hope it's as good as the last showbiz do we went to where Christian Slater led the karoke.

 And with that disgraceful and possibly pathetic bout of showing off and name dropping (oh come on, I don't do it that much) let's move on to finance!!

 There's nothing worse than self-congratulations is there? There's something smug about it which us British really dislike.

 But sod it eh! I feel like a master trader after my Roxboro buy. Remember this was my last buy at 381 just a couple of days ago. This was a top up to my buy of some time ago at 335p.

 Well, late yesterday the shares zoomed up 22p..and again pre market another 30p racing right through my target of 420p.

 I dug around to find out why and saw The Guardian had said it was up because of bid rumours.

 Now I try and adhere to the buy the rumour sell the fact but on this occasion I thought maybe sell the rumour! After all the shares had jumped nearly 20% on just a rumour.

 So I put in a sell order for all my shares. I missed the very best price of the day 435p - but I did grab 426.44p. My decision proved correct as the company put out a statement it has received an approach - but for just parts of the company! So the shares backed off!

 So anyway that's a profit of £681 on the shares bought a few days ago - and a massive £2,286 profit on the shares bought quite a while ago. That makes a total profit taken for the site today of £2,967. Very nice! Now if only I could do this on every trade I make I would be a happy man!

 My other recent top ups in Carrs and Dart are going well too, both rising nicely again today. Dart's rise above 300p looks good and Carrs is leaping up ten points a day. Both top-ups look well-timed.

 Emerald is doing its best to get past the tricky 170p area - tried a couple of times today, worth holding because if it can, 200 beckons again.

 Another recent buys Burren and Kier both look strong. Kier in particular is gaining ground and looks one of the most undervalued shares on the market.

 Telecom Plus looks interesting at 225p - a break up could see 255p, a break down 200p - take your pick!

 A few ask about my FTSE short which is currently in doo doo land. This trade was always made as an insurance policy - obviously I'm paying the price right now but I still feel a FTSE fall is on the cards sometimes this year and the short could still end up in profit.


Monday 23rd May

  My cafe happened to me right in the thick of the Chelsea FC parade yesterday. What a day and all hands on deck. It's quite But I have to say I didn't expect fans to be so bloody fussy.

 'Egg and bacon sandwich.. eggs must be runny/hard, medium...' 'Bacon well done/not well done, fat cut off....'

 But I have to say what delightful fans! No hint of anyone being scared or any violence, just a good-natured crowd (and we took four times more than normal on a Sunday!).

 I've got a busy social week! A night out tomorrow night at the theatre and on Friday I've accepted an invite from Sporting Index to go and watch the test match.

 I'm mainly going as I'll be in the company of some market-makers - always like talking to them because you learn a lot about certain... er... tricks!

 'What's your opinion of some of the scare stories that have been on financial bulletin boards ever since the dot.com bubble burst?

 You know what I mean: the house price bubble, stock market crash, unsustainable emergency low interest rates, peak oil, debt - both personal and government, the decline in manufacturing in the West, China, the US dollar depreciating, Eurozone recession, the pension timebomb, terrorism, future tax increases.

 Are we doomed to economic misery for decades, or is there some fundamental reason for us all to be bullish? If so, I'm struggling to see it. The footsie closed at its all time high on the last trading day of the last millennium; when will this be surpassed? 20 years, 50, never???

 Gordon Brown keeps telling us he has created stability, but surely with such poor fundamentals in place it is only a matter of time before it all unravels horribly.

 Don't get me wrong, I don't want this to happen, not where I have lived all my life, but where is the growth going to come from when we finally realise that selling each other assets at ever higher prices doesn't actually create any real, sustainable wealth?

 All our proper manufacturing jobs have gone East and new technology means many service sector jobs can follow, going to Indian call centres or wherever. Selling each other hamburgers and scratchcards like we do, and having an army of lawyers, accountants and personnel specialists as support cannot surely be a good foundation on which to build?

 Also stories from traders who made huge mistakes (including one who lost £500,000) - these make great reading.

 The markets continue to look strong and all the shares I've topped up in over the last couple of weeks are going well including Carrs, Dart, Emerald and Burren.

 However the top up shares I expect to sell at a profit sooner than later rather than hold long-term in case the market turns sour again.In fact pretty much all the recent buys are going well.

 Admiral has proved an excellent spreadbet buy, it's simply risen and risen though I'm thinking about taking the excellent profits soon.

 I decided to take a loss of £270 in my Intercontinental short as it went through the stop loss over the last couple of days and I exited at 657. Always better to take small losses quickly instead of letting them run up to bigger ones.

 Emerald in particular looks bullish today with a massive push through 150 - the next sticky point is the 170 area. Burren is trying hard to get over that 500 area again - it really needs to to get moving again.

 Telecom Plus is up and down ahead of results due soon - will be interesting to see them. Croda in the chemicals sector is going well too. In fact nothing really in the doghouse today.


Friday 20th May

  Went to a party past night and stayed till half midnight - outrageous I know! A friend, John Bird was holding it - you may have heard of him, he's the founder and head of The Big Issue and frequents the cafe a lot.

 He's a really great and funny guy, his autobiography is a great read. Good party too - met some very interesting people.

 John is a new father at 59 years of age! His baby is two months , four months younger than Christopher so I've been teaching him a few tricks!

 Due to the party and doing lots of baby feeding/getting to sleep duties, my mail box has got completely clogged up with more than 100 messages.

 There are tons of you interested in the Utlities warehouse internet/phone package deal and there are plenty of other mails I need to reply to - please bear with me and I promise to get to you all sometime over the weekend.

 An excellent day on the markets today - and I'm sure it is for you too. One new buy to report that's a top in Roxboro (RXO) and I bought 1,500 shares at 381p. Target 420p, stop loss 365p.

 This is a share ignored by the smaller investor (except for me) but my original buy in the low 300s has served me well and over the weeks ahead this one I believe will rise slowly even in gloomy market conditions.

 It's already shown great resilience when market conditions turn sour. The next statement looks like it's going to be pretty good and I expect to tuck this away for a while. There's also the chances of a bid with one shareholder holding just under the 30% needed to spark a bid.

 It's just the kind of decent share worth tucking away in a portfolio - it will never excite smaller punters as there are no thrilling new technologies, etc but it's just a great cash earner and one to have on your side.

 Yesterday's buys Carrs and Dart are doing nicely today, especially Carrs. Just need the last of the tipster sellers out of the way for Dart to see it shoot up back through the 300p mark.

 Burren and Emerald are doing their best to break through resistance points - Burren at 500 and Emerald at 150. Also going well are Admiral and Croda while Cattles and Chime remain disappointing.

Robbie Burns has been trading successfully for over 7 years, having spent 1996 to 2001 as finance and general editor for Sky TV's text services. Robbie has started this commentary page on Sky and Channel 5 text in 2000 and ran it until summer 2002, during which time he made profits of more than £50,000, even during the bear market from 2001.

Robbie now runs an independent cafe and catering business, but trades more or less full time. He uses ISA's and PEP's to avoid tax liabilities and runs his own pension fund in a SIPP. Visit his site here

Past Commentaries


Friday 15th April 2005 to Thursday 19th May 2005

Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005

Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005

Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005

Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December

Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November

Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October

Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July

Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004

Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004



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