Current Spread Betting Commentary

 Quick question relating to spreadbetting on shares. Can spreadbetting on shares only be done with the larger FTSE companies? Can one spreadbet on AIM listed companies for example? A Google search didn't reveal much so was wondering if you could shed some light on this.

Hi Paul, Yes, Cantor offer spreads on shares with market cap of over £50m which would cover some AIM shares.

 It really depends on the liquidity of the share. When a spreadfirm offers you a price it has to be able to buy the share easily in the market itself. If it can't, then it can't offer you a price.

 So whether an  aim stock or not just look at the market cap currently quoted for the company and if it's over 50m you will be quoted but you will have to ring the spreadfirm as these shares would not be quoted over the net.

 Also just to say the spreadfirm will only quote you up to the current market size of the share so sometimes big bets cannot be put on in one go.

 One trade to report today - that's a sell in Vanco simply to take the good profits that have built up quite quickly. I sold my 2,000 shares at 438.1 to take profits of £1,330.

Thursday 18th August

  So I was thinking this morning. Doesn't happen often so make the most of it !. I was thinking why do so many people especially new investors lose on the markets?

 One answer, I thought, was lack of patience. It's the get rich quick greed thing. I want to buy a share and I want it to move up RIGHT AFTER I BOUGHT IT. I want it to double in a week and turn ten grand into 20 just like that.

 It's just too boring to hold onto a share for six months or a year and watch it gently going up, gradually increasing your capital.

 And that's it. People get impatient - they overtrade, go in and out of stocks. Buy one one day, sell it the next if it doesn't move.

 So they eat into their capital by paying tons of commission, not clearing the spread and then wonder why they're not making money. It's why 98% of 'day traders' lose.

 Impatient investors don't think - this looks a great company - I'll hold for a year, get 20% capital increase plus a 5% dividend.

 They think: ooh this share is only 5p - it could be 10p next week. Then they end up selling at 3p.

 Dear readers - concentrate on building your wealth SLOWLY. It's a long-term game. Make sure you preserve your capital. OK, teacher that's enough lecturing. It's for your own good, I'm telling you.

 SIPPS. They're great. I've been negotiating for a while with a small company that specialises in CFD's within SIPPS.

 And next week I hope to announce a really good deal for those of you like me who fancy trading CFD's within your SIPP. And at excellent rates. You can also deal normal shares too.

 I hope to start trading CFD's within my sipp shortly. After that I hope to get another good deal for those of you wanting to trade CFD's outside your sipp.

 I'll also be chatting more about CFD's in the days to come because I think they are a very useful tool.

 Thanks to reader Peter who answers this question about Costain posed by Griff yesterday:

 'Griff is right in saying the income deferred from 2004 will appear in 2005's accounts but there will, of course, be a similar deferral in the 2005 accounts for projects at a similar stage of 'completion'.

 I'm sure Costain will have recognized this in their forecasts - the 'hit' is single-year, in effect .ie. 2004, unless year-end 'almost-completions' vary massively from year to year.

 In 2005 the effect is, in effect, 'in and out' if you see what I mean. It could of course be the case that the effect on 2004 is greater than normal years because of the Spanish Alcadeisa project. Maybe the accounts will shed further light on this.'

Thanks Peter. I think Costain has a way higher to go.

Wendesday 17th August

 Except experience has taught me that you never get out or get in right at the top or bottom, so usually I am happy to give up some profit and sell a little lower down in case it's a false downturn.

 Quite a lot of markdowns today (remember shares go DOWN as well as up) though my lot are pretty stable.

 Yesterday's buy Carrs Milling is rising slowly but surely - the company is growing by acquisition and the next set of results could look quite healthy though one has to look long-term due to the short-term costs of buying up other companies.

 Sondex looks interesting today - a couple of very large buys went in above the price which looks promising - 255 is the breakthrough area - patience with this one could pay off handsomely. Also looking good on a down day are Hunting (in the same sector) and Gyrus.

 On the downside the sell off in Burren now looks overdone. Profit-takers/panickers should pretty much be out of the way and the price should stabilise in the 700 area for a bit before buyers come back in.

 I'm no accountant but could the news from Costain be good rather than bad? An interesting e-mail from reader Griff:

 I have been in Costain for some time, Like you I still believe it is undervalued. Today's announcement looks like a gift horse to me!

 It would seem that under the new accounting rules they have deferred £6m from last years accounts which will seemingly end up in the forthcoming accounts on 31st Aug. So the percentage rise in year on year profits will be boosted?

 Do you think I'm right and the market hasn't woken up to this? Also I think they will probably announce a maiden dividend... So all in all I'm off to buy some more!

 Griff I really don't know except judging by market reaction you could be right. I still think this is a fabulous long-term hold. Broker Arbuthnot issued a buy note today.

 Fisher is coming back on the rails after the tree shake - results next week should be interesting. Considering Vanco has risen so much it's doing very well to hold at 450 - more to come.

Tuesday 16th August

  So yesterday decided to splash out on a topline massage chair. Hmmm, just think next time one my stocks goes down 20% on a profits warning I can sink into my chair, relax and be pummelled and forget about everything!

 I'm waiting for it to arrive - slightly worried as I did some hardline negotiating and got the price down from £2,400 to £1,500 which seemed too good to be true. Could the chair be crap and might it never arrive? Let you know tomorrow.

 Last night I was very good. I answered a backlog of 65 e-mails which took me 3 hours. I really hope I've helped many of you with questions about the market.

 Maybe I'll get my reward in heaven, maybe it's good karma but I guess I like helping people, especially new investors.

 So here's five of the e-mails with some rough answers as we. dig into the postbag!! Here's reader Heather:

 'Looking at Bisichi Mining the spread seems large from 3.46 to sell at and 3.55 to buy. Any advice why this may be so? Is it the market makers trying to control the market? Or perhaps it is due to the small capitalisation of the stocks?

 With such a large spread, it seems that the price has to increase somewhat before you actually break-even.'

 Heather - it's the same with most smaller cap stocks. The reason is market-makers don't hold a lot of stock and want to protect themselves. Basically the wider the spread the riskier mm's perceive the stock.

 You can often deal within the spread so sometimes the spread is not as wide as it first appears but yes, often you have to clear 3-5% just to clear the spread and that is one of the problems with the more illiquid stock!

 I would not personally deal in any stock with a spread of more than 4%. However The spread on the share you quote is actually fairly standard. You have to realise with smaller companies with wider spreads that if you get it wrong, it will cost you!

Now this from Tony:

 'I broke one of the cardinal rules of investing last week when I plugged up 2K in a share that I just cannot understand. It's an investment trust called Climate Exchange and the reason that I bought it was quite basic:

 The chart was good and all the BB gossip about it was juicy, but I just don't know what it does, if you get a minute could throw some light on it?

 Tony - you said it yourself - you broke a fundamental rule of investing - never invest on bulletin board gossip or buy into something you don't understand.

 So let me be plain: DO NOT DO IT AGAIN. And don't expect me to do your research for you either!!

Now here's Richard:

 I have limited funds available to invest and I therefore tend to go for your lower priced shares if something appeals to me. What would be your minimum investment in view of the commission fee?'

 Well Richard I don't feel it's worth spending much less than 2k on any stock given spreads and commission fees.

 Avoid the temptation to always go for 'Lower priced' shares. Some of my best gains have come from 'higher priced' ones!!

Finally this from Derek:

 'Took a day off from the daily grind and have just finished cleaning out the garden pond - horrible job but has to be done once every three years or so! The 4/5 frogs were very upset!

 Just checked on my portfolio and see that most things are moving up. I have been an investor in Templeton for probably 12 years (use their saving plan) and in all that time I have never seen the shares move so much in such a short time. Makes me a happy bunny.

 I went and fell (out of) for the tree shake out with Burren. Am nursing my bruises now and mutter rude words whenever I look at the share price but I hold Paladin Resources, not so active but still a steady riser.

 Many thanks again for your enjoyable web site - don't work to hard in the coffee shop now will you?'

Garden pond Derek we don't get those where I live in grotty London!

 Now as you all know it's a quiet time on the markets and so I spend a lot of the morning having a nice swim/workout!

However I did spot one I thought was worth buying for a possible 10% rise which is a return to an old favourite Carrs Milling (CRM).

 I bought 1,000 shares at 549.5. Stop 520, target 600. You may remember I bought these last year at 330 and sold at about this price for a good profit. Looks like judging from some early buys going in today it could be time to get in again.

 I've discussed this nice little company many times - it's a food producer (flour) and some time has passed since the shares have moved. Looks to me like it's starting to look undervalued again and I'm in for a gentle glide up to 600p or so.

 I'm a bit careful with this one as it can move fast up and down on the whim of the market makers but it's worth what I consider to be a fairly small risk of a sudden downturn.

 Elsewhere there's not much to say on a quiet summer's day! Burren selling continues but I'm going to ride it out.

 As I predicted yesterday Fisher came all the way back after MM's scared out tipsheet punters and once the upward sentiment resumes it'll go back up - results are out next week anyway so we'll see what happens,

 Gyrus is moving nicely today heading up back towards its high and T Clarke results are out at the end of the week!  

Friday 12th August

  Oh Brother! 7.15am - in the lovely land of sleep to be woken by the phone. No counter staff have turned up at the cafe.

 So I have to leap out of bed and run over there to open up! This is the last time the manager gets a holiday.

 I won't bore you with the excuse stories but suffice to say me and Elizabeth had to man the fort for most of the morning which isn't our idea of a good time.

 And more to the point it makes it impossible for me to trade. On the bright side I knew it would be a hard week with our manager off so at least next week will return to normal.

 Thanks for listening to my moaning. It really helps to have an outlet....! Anyway due to the current lack of time it'll have to be a shorter update than normal...

 Onto the markets...So Burren hit the buffers today! However when I see something down the last thing I do is panic and sell - it's nearly always the wrong move and I think it would have been the wrong one here.

 Of course having bought at 239 and 466 and with a long-term view the fall today didn't worry me that much.

 In fact I'm not even sure why the statement today pushed it down so much - probably encouraged profit-takers.

 This is usually pretty healthy for a strongly-rising share and I would have topped up at 750 if I didn't have so many already. Still a fantastic medium-term uptrend in place.

 Elsewhere an extremely quiet end to the week with not much action anywhere. I sold my Hunting nil paid rights issue shares in the market at around 100p to bank a nice £1,000 for nothing. Thanks, Hunting!

 Fenner continues to look strong and is rising well as I write - still feel something is on the way here (hopefully not a profits warning!) Vislink's hold over 40p looks promising for a possible rise up to 50p.

 An interesting move above 600 for Isotron which has been quiet for a while - I'm expecting a decent statement soon which I think will lift the shares to 700p. Just a question of patience.

 Sondex tries hard to get above the 250 area. T Clarke holds well but probably the statement is needed before 300 can be breached.

 The Provident Financial short is still going well but the Holidaybreak short is close to being closed out though there is a little hope of another downturn. 

Thursday 11th August

  After yesterday's disastrous day when I had to really work I can relax and trade which is definitely not the same as working!

 I thought it would not be too bad yesterday, middle of August and all that. Of course what happens?

 One of the staff turned up very late leaving just me to deal with the lunchtime rush with just one (slow) member of staff to help.

 And it would be the day the inner potential centre up the road was holding one of its courses which meant a huge queue building up of delegates wanting their lunch.

 They all have big name badges on. Which is quite fun because you can say: 'So what would you like for lunch, Mark?'

And they go: 'how did you know my name?'

'Well, it is written right across your chest, mate!'

I'm beginning to feel like the guy in the movie/play 'The Producers' - .

 While I don't want the cafe to do badly, it just keeps doing better and better which causes me more and more hassle. And just try getting decent staff. Next to impossible!

 Remember Norman, he is the chap who is often in a lot of pain but finds trading really helps him through it.. he is also the chap who pretty much made me carry on writing this site when laziness made me feel like quitting.

So I heard from him yesterday...

 'Re. your readers letter on oil ( make or bust ), when I started my sipp some months ago my strategy was to invest in 'sleep at night shares ' and as I like to work to targets I set a baseline target (7%) then I aim for double (14%).

 I quickly realized if you take a small pot of money and increase it by 14% a year for 11 years minus inflation you are still left with a relatively small pot of money, a quick recalculation showed me that I need to work at 22%+ to achieve the pension pot I would like, not an easy task.

 I remembered the words of an old friend who used to say all a man has to do to make money is know which way the wind is blowing.

 Well the wind was blowing and it carried a strong smell of oil, so I sold up my portfolio RTD apart and invested in oil, topped up bur then bought NOP, JKX and VPC not household names but companies I have researched thoroughly and they are all showing big profits for me and as I write my sipp profits are just over 34% in six months.

 It was not an easy decision to make nor was it something done on the spur of the moment but I believe that there is money to be made in oil for at least the next two years, the geopolitical situation.

 Irans proposed nuclear policy terrorism and the rising demand for oil in CHINA, USA and INDIA should keep the price of oil high, if it fluctuates then trading opportunities may arise, if I am wrong and oil price/ market sentiment go against me and if my sipp profits start to slide back towards 30% I will sell up lock stock and (oil) barrel.

 I am a gambler at heart but not a foolish one, I see what I have done not as a gamble but as a calculated risk.

 We are off on holiday next week, a friend of my wife's owns a flat in Keswick and as it is vacant next week she wondered if we would like the use of it (err yes please) I have always wanted to go to the Lake District I just hope my legs and back up. Take care and stay lucky my friend.'

Thanks Norman - and I am still drinking my way through all that great wine you sent me!

Phillip writes: 'Great to see Vanco doing so well but I read they are moving to AIM - that must be bad news!'

 Don't worry Phillip - your news source confused Vanco with a US Texas firm! Vanco is definitely staying on the main market.

 If there is any whiff of Vanco moving to AIM I shall head for Isleworth and tell the MD what I think! This company is going to be big!

 So Vislink gets the award for the star of the day and yet again patience pays off. As I keep saying if you have a good one eventually you get rewarded.

 By 10am it rose to 41-42. Time to take profits? Not yet! But I checked my Squaregain dealing platform.

 I put in a dummy sell, market makers were offering as many as 37,000 shares. And on the buy side? Just a palty 2,500 shares on offer!

 What does that tell me? The MM's are desperately short of stock and the price will rise further. if it drops it is just a tree-shake.

 Vanco continues yesterday's stunning rise with another rise today. Looks like the City is re-rating these shares fast. Vanco could be huge in a couple of years. As you know I have met the MD - he is one determined guy.

 Plenty of other stars today too. Dragon Oil's breakout carries on and 150 looks a good short-term target.

 Something is going on at Fenner - the big volumes mean I reckon a good news story or a bid is on the way. You read it here first!

 Galliford Try has been motoring nicely and is trying to crack the 70p. In the same sector Costain has been a touch disappointing but it is a long-termer that will come very good.

 Profit-taking in Burren continues - however I am happy to stay patient and ride out any short-term weakness.

Wendesday 10th August

  t's just one of those things. Yes, today the Naked Trader is but a humble coffee shop worker.. for a while anyhow.

 My manager is on holiday, a member of staff buggered off, and one is going to be late today. Elizabeth promised her mum a shopping trip so muggins here will have to make coffee, serve lunches and try and be nice to people.. er while trying to trade at the same time, write this website, deal with deliveries, answer the phone and reply to e-mails.

 So for 3 hours today and 4 hours tonight I am but a £5 an hour shop worker.  Would you like a small, medium or large coffee? Or salad? Oh well, this sometimes happens when you own your own business, eh. That's enough moaning about having to do real work which is quite horrible.

 So, here is a straightforward e-mail from a reader, David: 'Robbie, why not put all our eggs in the oil basket and make or bust!'

 Well, David an interesting thought. However I do suggest that taking sod's law the very day after one has decided to go make or bust one will probably end up bust and therefore also in the shite !

 While I agree oil stocks have powered up my portfolio and probably many others you cannot just put everything in one basket.

 A balanced portfolio is a must and I feel two big stakes in two oil companies that I hold is about right.

 Of course you could argue I could have put all my money in Burren when I bought at 241 and admittedly I would be a lot wealthier but in reality share buying just doesn't work like that.

 So David, I think the answer is no. Keep a balanced and careful portfolio and eventually you will be rich.

 Ps. I wondered about putting a * in the rude word but figured you either use it or not and anyway my reader started it! If you want to complain, write to my boss. Oh dear I haven't got one, never mind.

 Onto the markets - being a coffee shop worker today I am too distracted to trade but with everything still on the up I probably would not have done anyhow.

 Star award of the day goes to Vanco up a massive 38p on yet another completed deal. Little doubt Vanco is simply one worth buying and hanging onto for a couple of years to reap the benefits. Great management there which I have met.

 Hunting has proved a very profitable buy and it's heading up towards 300p - considering shareholders like myself also have rights issue shares to sell or keep too this one has been a brilliant buy.

 Recent buys T Clarke and Fisher and Sons are consolidating nicely at higher prices. T Clarke is heading up well today.

 Using Squaregain's system (as explained yesterday) market makers look shortish of stock in both.

 It's not a great time to have shorts open but Provident Financial continues to be depressed and in good profits.

 On the other hand I am watching Holidaybreak carefully and will close out for a small loss if it climbs further.

 Vislink is heading higher after a period of inactivity - this one tends to move quickly - a break through 40p would look bullish and take us somewhere near 50p.

 After tremendous gains yesterday one would expect a down day for Burren but it's holding nicely and even looking like it may gain again this afternoon!

Tuesday 9th August

   The amazing summer stock market gains continue and I just hope many of you are making a lot of money too.

 The old adage sell in May and come back on St Ledgers Day is proving to be a load of cobblers this year so far.

 The portfolio has put on many thousands of pounds so far this year and it's been my bets year ever personally with 70k+ profits.

 So still relaxed after the great spa break at Pennyhill Park. We had a really great time and in particular I had a great time with the massage chair.

 In fact so much so I am considering buying one for the house so I can get a decent massage every day. Hmm watching the markets while having a massage that sounds good!

 Christopher now has a play pen which it looks like he isn't going to like much as he enjoys bombing around unfettered.

 But it gives us the chance to get on with a few things without the fear of him sticking a pudgy hand into the DVD player.

 Three trades made in the last day or so! First a new buy - that's in another lovely-looking company called Fisher and Sons (FSJ). I bought 2,500 shares at 354.5p (it was already up 5p on the day).

 I do like buying shares that look attractive fundamentally AND are on a very strong chart breakout AND look relatively safe. This one fits the bill. Maybe I should be called a fundatechnalist? No - not very snappy is it?

 In fact this one might sound boring and it probably has done in the past - a marine services provider. But things are actually getting exciting here because the management here seems determined to grow the company via acquisitions.

 What I also like is the way the company's profits are heading way higher and their statements are so confident. I think quite easily by the year end we could be looking at 450p.

 It's recently won a good submarine contract from the MOD and really looks like it's on a roll. So a confident buy. Others appear to be piling in to and the price has moved a little higher since I bought as I write 354-358.

 A sell to report - I took my profits in First Technology selling at 308p to take profits of £845 for the website and rather more than that for me personally.

 This was quite a straightforward profit-take. It was a great recovery story when I bought at 265 or so.. but the shares have been stalled for a while and I'd rather move on - looks like another statement is needed before the shares could move up again - one to watch.

 I also sold the trading 3,500 shares in Telecom Plus for 159.05 to take a profit of £246. Another straightforward profit-take - the shares are in a 150-170 tight range and they look unlikely to break out for the moment.

 This is mainly because the market needs an update on the gas hedging. In the meantime I'd rather be in faster-moving areas of the market. That's total profits for the site today of £1,091

 Burren, Burren, Burren is all I can say... bought at 241 and 466 and now at 830! I'm lovin' this one! And what's the point of taking profits when the oil price is still going higher as is Burren's uptrend? Amazingly 1000p is in sight! I have so much profit in this one I can't even count it all. And all tax free.

 The market-makers tried a massive tree-shake in T Clarke (CTO) to try and scare recent buyers into selling! Again read my article above to learn how to spot a shake.

 They quickly dropped all the way to 280, it didn't work except for one or two panickers. Then it went right back up - these kind of drops make me even more confident!

 Hunting is sprinting higher - I will probably just sell my rights in the market as it's a free grand or so for no outlay.

 Good lift for Fenner yesterday with some good volume coming in.. one to hold for sure. Spot of profit-taking in Gyrus but no fears for me - this one is going to 400p.

 Dragon Oil continues its good climb and Templeton just carries on rising one or two points a day - that'll do me!
 

Monday 8th August

  Sometimes I read back what i've written and think I sound like a smug git. Well, maybe I am... but then I think I do slag myself off when I get things wrong and get annoyed and I also publish my losers so fair enough?

 So, we were supposed to go to a horse event thing in Stroud, courtesy of Cantor Index. I guess at midday on Sunday I felt a bit lazy and didn't fancy the 2.5 hour drive..

 So instead we went to a luxury spa hotel (Pennyhill Park) - only 45 minutes drive away and had a great time, lots of swimming, spas and massages. And with the mum in law at home looking after the baby, other things you can imagine.

 We stayed overnight and got back just a few minutes ago at 1pm! Tomorrow I'll fill you all in with events. It was touch and go whether I was going to update at all today but how could I let down my readers?

 Talking of readers I find it quite amazing that every time I feel like quitting doing this site I get a couple of nice e-mails which give me the strength to carry on.

 I thought I'd print a couple. I normally don't because I feel I'm trying to 'big myself up' but as I always print the occasional critical one, why not.. so..

This from reader Geoff:

'Have been a keen daily reader of your web site for the past three years and have learnt a huge amount during that time.

  He keeps looking behind the speakers in great puzzlement. His other game is to try and catch the cat but despite the fact she's over 100 years old she is pretty good at keeping out of his reach.


 What can I say about the current portfolio except I am making enormous profits. Some positions have huge profits - others a bit smaller. In fact I think all my positions are in profit right now.

 The thing is when to start taking profits? Every time I think of selling anything it goes up a bit more and though I know I should be banking profits in some positions I can't bring myself to.

 Burren is obviously a prime candidate as I could bank £40k plus personally and over £10k for the website. But the trend is strong and it keeps going! I really feel like letting the winners run and that is what I'll do for the moment.

 T Clarke as mentioned earlier is still going well, let's hope those August results are decent - some big buying this week makes me feel confident.

 Nice move from Gyrus today - this one is really reeling in the profits - pleased about this as I was certain it was well undervalued considering it's doubled in size and I've made decent profits in just a few days.

 Burren is breaking up again nicely - the 800 will probably prove a difficult nut to crack but once through, well could we see 900?

 My target just 4 months ago was 800 by the end of the year! I had chartists writing to me telling me I was wrong so boo sucks to them! My Provident Financial short is going well - a further breakdown of 20 points would do nicely.

 Rotork holds well at higher levels and Dragon Oil is on the verge of a major rise if it can break 126p.

 Templeton Emerging Markets continues to amuse me - it was supposed to be a slow steady riser not a fast crazy one!

Thursday 28th July