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Well, that was a great holiday in
Nice ! What a hotel ! Superb rooms and a great view of the sea. 300 euros a
night was a good price for such quality.
We had great fun with our newish friends Laurent and Nathalie and their
two lovely children who Christopher had a lot of fun with.
As usual Natalie and Elizabeth went off shopping with our credit cards
while we talked trading!
Laurent is such a good trader I'm encouraging him to think about running his own
tipping kind of service from his base in Switzerland. Well, if he does, I'm sure
he'll give my readers a good offer.
His style of trading (options) makes him money generally whatever the
market's doing. It's all far too clever for me! So, goodness the moment I left for
France it seems, the market got hit! I'm actually rather glad I was sitting
lapping up the sunshine in Nice, knowing nothing at all about it. Of
course being an investor rather than a trader makes life a bit easier. I guess
if I was a trader I'd have sold and tried to get back in lower. But that's not
my game. Costain
is a real puzzle, it seems like I'm missing something regarding the recent
downmove from 50 to 40 but I can't see it. I will hold on unless it dips below
38p which is the next support level.
Great news re Christopher today! The
consultant says his medicine can be stopped as he doesn't think there are any
more problems with him and says he is very well. Onto the markets. I bought one I
really liked the look of since results on Oct 5th. It's called
MTL Instruments (MTI).
Great start to the day to find my
trusty bicycle has been stolen! My own fault - yesterday afternoon I went to the
cafe to get some lunch and because there was a queue I couldn't put the bike
inside so chained it to a lamppost. This again demonstrates the 'greed'
factor and the need for discipline when buying and selling!! Fortunately I
followed your advice not to panic and 'oils' are again bouncing this week. Onto the markets. I've decided I'll
probably buy this share I've been 'stalking' for a while tomorrow after it goes
ex dividend. I'm
hoping the market makers will drop it a bit more than the dividend and one or
two shareholders bail out not realising the drop is because of the XD. Let you
know what it is tomorrow! Bound to
be some consolidation in the market and I might strike lucky. By the way this is
just me rambling to myself so please take it as that, I don't know anything! I've made shedloads on this one since
it floated and despite all the rises I'm going in again with a buy of more than
£20,000 worth - I bought 5,000
shares at 436.563. Target
480 stop
415.
Onto the markets. Well, after a
couple of crap days, today and Friday is restoring the balance with the oils
doing very well today, making me feel so far I was correct not to be panicked
out of them. I'm
getting very tempted to top up - but technically there is a possible 38-39 to
come before the I think almost certain upturn back to 50p. So I will wait and
watch.
A rare night out! We went to Ed's Easy Diner for ribs and burgers and lots
of naughty stuff and I sank a couple of cocktails. His
forecasts are shot to pieces - can he avoid the temptation to help himself to
some tasty oil share profits? - not if you go by his record. This of course also
applies to overseas governments. Therefore beware your profits in Burren. Onto the markets. One more
profit-take to report as I keep more in cash to hedge against down moves. I've now got quite a bit of cash on
the sidelines. This gives me the ability to snap up stock at cheap prices if
there was a sudden downturn. If I
don't get a nice Xmas box and a 20% rise I'll vote for Ken Livingstone in the
next London Mayoral election!
When are those new teletubby DVD's going to arrive.. please!! I really
don't think I can face watching the same tape once more with Christopher. I've watched it over 200 times now.
Maybe they'll come later today. If they don't come tomorrow you may find me in a
darkened room muttering to myself 'eh oh'. Dump the
TV Licence, stop hounding motorists - stop trying to 'generate revenue' and let
us all breathe without all the petty officialdom. I am
beginning to think maybe there is an unwritten rule that if the scare tactics of
being taken to court and extra costs don't work, they may just write off the
tickets to save the courts being clogged up and grinding the system to a halt.
Hope
that is the case, by the way I live in Lancashire, maybe different elsewhere but
it makes you think.' I always know when the market is
sinking - I always end up having two pieces of toast instead of one - my version
of a cigarette. I also
managed to get in before the market makers moved it down - it was almost certain
they would. If that
e-mailer really knew what blood on the streets was really like he should have
been trading the markets in 2000!
Christopher just gets more and more fascinating by the day! Yesterday for
the first time he got the hang of waving goodbye.. and can clap his hands. Just
remember he is a Labour MP and Labour have been doing this now for years! - Find
out what the people say, (they always say that public opinion is important??)
and then do whatever they like. Basically
I'm voting for any party that does away with this draconian legislation and
other red tape currently strangling business. Onto the markets. A down day today!
It's amazing what short memories we all have - the market has been so benign for
ages it's a shock when shares go down. This is
the worst thing you can do. I always have a look through though and check
whether there is anything really vulnerable that should be got rid of. Same
with the other oils hit today. There are always going to be corrections along
the way and I still feel confident with all my oils. Well, at
least holders know why the price slid now. I am keeping an eye on these - if the
issue happens to be a lot lower than expected I will be jumping in to buy.
Oh dear. What a depressing bunch of party political conferences. All
ghastly bland stage-managed slimy creepy affairs. Christopher on the other hand is more
than happy to watch the same one day after day. I know the whole Teletubby
script off by heart. 'One day, in teletubby land, a butterfly came..' Onto the markets. Right, the first
riskier trade I've done for a while. I bought back into
Retail Decisions (RTD) this
morning - a modest 18,000 shares
at 21.74p. Stop
20.5, target
26. Fair
value looks to be at least 26p. I'm not looking to stay in for long but I reckon
a 10-20% bounce would be fair and quite quick.
Living in a democracy? Not if you
live in London! Ken Livingstone goes ahead with expanding the ridiculous
'congestion charge' aka TAX! .. to West London. It hits business badly and even more
ironically it'll make central London busier because West London residents can
now drive in with a 90% discount. Onto the markets. And yet ANOTHER
good day. It's going to be a shock for me one day when the market
eventually turns the other way, and I hope to get out in time, but for now, let
the good times roll! CSR
pushes back higher - it's only a matter of time before it's back to 700. Then I
await a push through to 800.
Well, what a great year this has been
investment wise. I have no idea what I've made except a hell of a lot. Must be
getting on for nearly £100k profits in 2005. Onto the mailbag:
Donovan writes 'I think we should
have a little guess on what the old FTSE will be at year end. What you think because I think we
could be seeing FTSE at 6000 year end. Cheers Donovan. I just can't see the oil market
falling because where is the extra supply going to come from. In a market of
growing demand and falling supply the price can only go up. That's my view
anyway. I wonder what others think'. However as you can see I hold a lot
of oil stocks so I obviously expect prices to carry on going up for the moment.
Onto the mailbag:
Ian writes: 'What happened to
Burren? I don't understand. Just before I set off to work this morning
(Thursday) I looked at my portfolio and Burren was at 725? I know they did a placing but why
should this affect the bid price so dramatically. The offer price was at 850 a
huge spread. What's the reason can you explain? Ian - it's simple - ignore any price
you see quoted until just past 8am. Prices pre-market are completely meaningless
and should be ignored. Pretty volatile time on the market
today with shares up, down, up.. etc.. on days like this as long as I still like
the fundamentals of a company I'll take no notice. However, although irritated I stuck
by my Emerald stop loss and
exited today at 174 to take a
loss of £500 on my spreadbet.
Although I feel the price is being
very much manipulated by the market-makers and it could go back up quite easily,
that's what stop losses are for - an unemotional way of protecting oneself from
big losses - thus taking small losses.
Onto the markets - another pretty
good day! (A really crap one is bound to be on the cards tomorrow now!) It's near stop levels but I'm hanging
on - just! A broker has put out a buy note with a 250 target so that might help.
So onto the markets - and some pretty
good gains going on today! My oils have come back - I really have no doubt at
all that Burren will end the year
over 1000p and Dragon over 200p.
Just a matter of time and patience.
Burren has boomed right back up as I knew it would - and Merril Lynch have
started coverage with a 1000 + target - bloody hell I agree with a broker - that
makes a change! Both shares zooming up. I guess if I just left my money in
there for a couple of years I'd get a decent capital gain and dividends to boot.
But maybe I should use the money elsewhere - not decided yet. Looks like the bad news is all in the
price now and I'll take a chance and hold at least for results on Friday. Clever
move to realise bad news first.. then (I hope) release the good! Plenty of upside for both and little
downside bar the odd treeshake. Hill already moving up now and Highway managed a
good rise yesterday afternoon.
As most boys of his age, Christopher
is now embarking on 'seek and destroy' missions which involves getting into
every cupboard and destroying everything in his path. He was crawling around the floor
happily. Next thing I knew he had shit in his hand and even more horrific was
putting it in his mouth!! I rushed him to the kitchen, rinsed
out his mouth, washed him all over and then washed myself. I've always poo-poohed the idea. I
wasn't sure I could be bothered and I'm still not sure I can be bothered ! If so, would be interested to know
your thoughts as I understood you were leaving it for a couple of years. I also
have a couple of queries I would be grateful to hear your thinking on. Obviously risky given recent rises
but the risk is outweighed for me by possible big gains - I initially target
300p.
With my book out any minute I did my
first interview today with a website. Chap came along with a recording device
and we just got through it before he ran out of a batteries. If you can't handle shares falling
sometimes as well as going up it's time to sell up and put your money in the
bank. Onto the mailbag -
Steve writes: Where would you
suggest looking to learn a bit about spread betting on shares? Obviously they do other shares as you
'buy' them through spreads, but where can I find the quotes? For example, if I buy a share on the
spreads at say £10 and the shares change from Ord 50p to Ord 25p say, then the
new shares will be quoted at £5 each (but, of course, if I owned the shares
outright I would have twice as many). If I bought at £5 a point, I assume I
wouldn't lose £2,500 as a result. Would I?! Market time! The drop in
Burren's (BUR) share price is
music to my ears today and I've topped up with a last lot at 849.5 although I
shan't be adding them to the website list as there are already two Burren trades
there. Also when all is said and done, it's
a bloody good profit! All the oils are down slightly today but this bubble has a
way to go in my opinion!
Well, I guess we're getting ready to move.
So I'm clearing all the clutter I can ! Old papers are being ruthlessly chucked,
same for magazines and anything else I'll never look at again. Onto the markets. Those of you on my
mailing list should have yesterday afternoon got details of a high-risk AIM oil
exploration buy - if you didn't get it let me know. My mailing list which includes my
high-risk buys will be open to new entrants again in a few weeks' time. A little
on the quiet side today after the huge gains of yesterday. For an investment trust
Templeton has been a star
performer over the last few weeks!
Rotork is breaking out to new highs which is a great sign.
I was thinking about all the silly
scare stories in the papers over the summer that ended up being complete
cobblers! Remember
40 degrees tropical summer will hit the UK? And.. Bird Flu will wipe us all out?
More recently, supermarket shelves will run out of meat due to a strike. Story was woman had to cancel her honeymoon
because her cat was lost. My headline?
REST IN PISTE! And
especially glad I kept hold of my £50 a point upbet held since 300p (close to
£30,000 profit). (Rolled over yesterday). A close
above 850 today would look pretty good for more rises. Still undervalued on its
amazing potential. But for
how much longer and again 1000 is on the cards here. I'm considering a top up
right now in the 685 area.
Ah, a nice peaceful. relaxing weekend. Mainly because the cold kept hold forcing me
to stay in bed for a lot of it. There's a new book out that I ordered. As you all know I use a mix of
fundamental and technical analysis to make decisions. If it can't then it could slip back.
Well, that's risky shares for you! The North Korea agreement is really helping.
My other oil, Emerald is going
well - 200 is the crucial figure here.
I can always tell when colder weather
is on the way.. I always get a bloody cold! So feeling sorry for myself
and about to head for bed for the afternoon. I suppose that's one good thing
about running this site, there's always someone to moan to. Onto the mailbag:
Mark writes: 'I'm in a bit of a
dilemma at the moment. I try at all costs to avoid CGT. I am presently just
under my limit for CGT and have used up my wifes allowance for this year. I have researched YOO Media and think
it would be a good long term m hold but the volatility is making me nervous and
I hate to see a big winner turn in to a loser. So do I sell and take the CGT hit or
hold on and hope they make me some really big money in a few years. Was in at
3.9p I now tell my wife you can choose any
colour or style you want for all furniture and decorations. It absolutely confuses the hell out
of her! 'But you surely must have an opinion Mark' ? She says 'No, have what you
like'!!!! I don't think you should sell
something or hold on to something to avoid CGT - better to pay some CGT than
lose your profits! Trouble
is you never know what will happen on results day, sometimes even good results
sees shares going down. But I don't see much downside and I may buy more early
tomorrow.
So I went back to school today. We
went to look at a school -one of a few we'll see. Yes, I know he's only 9 months
old but this whole private school thing is very competitive. You're supposed to
get their names down ten years before they're born! They are now opening branches in bad
locations, like the one they opened nearby - that branch will make a loss. What
happens if all their new ones start losing? As you
noticed I took a lot of profits off the table yesterday - my view is now
anything that becomes wobbly I will probably sell.
Onto the markets. And a very busy day! Three sales to take profits
and a top up buy in Highway Insurance! Happy to sell and maybe buy lower.
Whatever this is one of my favourite companies of all time and I doubt I'll be
out for long. So sold is 2,000 shares at 491.25 to take profits of £770. But it
stays in the notebook for a possible future buy. That makes website profits
taken today of £4,524. Let's
hope I don't need any insurance to cover any losses on this one! The more I look
at it the cheaper it looks. A few market maker buys going in today so they might
be a bit short.
I've been shovelling sh*t this
weekend! Now I never thought I would ever have to use that as my opening line
but there you are. And I'm not joking - this is what I was really doing! I guess neither of us could be
described as conventional so it's no surprise we are going for something
different. I love the look of this one - a great
set of results which resulted in a good rise in the share price. But it still
looks nicely undervalued. Great H1 results showed profits up to 11.3m Vs 5m - a
superb rise along a doubled dividend. I simply don't think the share price
is yet reflecting these results despite the recent rises and I'm coming in
expecting the share in time to be re-rated higher. Those holding at close of
play tomorrow also pick up a nice dividend. But good
volume on Friday and a rising price makes me give it another try with a tight
stop loss at 180. Target
250. I needed to sell something to pick up
Highway and this was the one I decided was probably the best to take profits in. It tends not to do much or go down on
results day but as chart readers will see the uptrend is still firmly up!
I thought today I'd know whether I'd got
this apartment or not but it could still swing either way. I wanted to ask you a question in
relation to changes/resignations on the board of a company, for example Dragon
oil, the chief executive has resigned, obviously you can never get first hand
information but in this situation how do you try to gauge the overall effect
this will have on the company but more importantly on the share price now and
going forward? Do you sit tight and see how it plays out.. '
It's a bit like a soap opera
cliffhanger today. Oh dear - me and Christopher got off to a bad start today -
he was standing balanced on the TV watching Teletubbies (CBeebies TV 6am-6.30am)
(!!) when he fell down and banged his head. Can I sell during Friday Oct 7th and
still get the divi, or do I have to wait until Monday 10th? Thanks for your
help, Kindest Regards Graham. Some rumours of a bid in the 180 area
earlier this year. Whatever, something big looks about to happen there and glad
I stayed patient.
Talk to be slowlyyyy..... today - I
have a terrible hangover. What's a share? How do you buy one? I think I've
forgotten! Had a nice evening at the Wolseley - guess who was on the next table?
No less than Joan and Jackie Collins! She does
look good - looks like the money she's spent on her face has paid off! Also
there? Actor Michael Gambon and that's quite enough namedropping, thank you
Robbie. Great
meal but just too much to drink - I think it was a very nice liquer coffee that
finished me off. Headache... ow! Dragon
is just below my last two buying prices but it's gone up in a straight line so
this short downtrend is healthy and it should shortly turn up again. Probably a
good chance for me to top up in my Barclays ISA!
Mousegate day 2. No sign of the
critters overnight. But could they be hiding somewhere in the house. Elizabeth
is convinced. Not sure what I'd do if I spotted one
though, except probably jump on the sofa with her! I'll keep you up to date as
the latest situation unfolds. (More mice in the postbag shortly) Is this a wise thing to do?? I
understand when the market opens the following day the spread may be wide first
thing in the morning and my trade may be triggered. But apart from that is there any
other disadvantage to this. My work prevents me from putting on trades during
market hours. Today (29/8/05- bank holiday) I tried
to put an opening order with Finspreads but the person who answered the phone
was reluctant to let me put an opening order because according to him there was
no point because it was a bank holiday plus the newsflow etc. Please let me know whether putting a
buy-stop or a sell-stop order outside market hours (including bank holidays)
should be avoided or in your opinion is it OK to do this???? What you are doing is trading blind
and that could lead to big losses. Anyone with any views welcome. Regarding mice! - here's some free
advice - I'm terrified of them and it took me a few weeks to get rid of an
infestation in the attic so this is based on personal experience and should be
worth more than £140! If you have it'll probably stink for
a few days and you won't be able to find the body. Here's my method. Buy three traps - the ordinary sort
with a spring that folds back and which you bait. Why three? If you have one and
you catch a mouse you won't know if you have more than one in the house.
If you bait three and catch one mouse
but the bait is eaten on the other two - bingo you have more than one mouse. The
bait to use is good old fashioned cheese. Ignore people who say that chocolate
or jelly babies are better. Also useful is a trail of muesli up to the trap.
Make sure that the muesli goes
directly under the trip - this gives you another route to a kill as some mice -
probably young ones- can somehow eat the cheese without tripping the spring. Another fallacy is that mice can
smell you on the trap and won't bite - if there's free food they'll go for it.
Place the traps around the walls as
they don't like to wander too far from security. Keep the traps sprung for a few
weeks. This will indicate whether there's a
route in to the house from outside. Make sure that the cat and the kid (what a
lovely fella - best smile I've had all year) - can't get their mits on the trap
- very painful that. Regards - Gerwyn
- from the wilds of West Wales. Onto the markets : Well, believe it or not
I have this morning bought Dragon Oil
AGAIN! I have made a third and final buy of
2,300 shares at
171p to add to my holdings at 109
and 163. Same target and stop as yesterday's buy. That's all the cash I had
left! Also
Sondex could easily be a bid target with the likely bidder being Hunting. Pure
speculation on my part of course!
Wow, a great BH weekend that was! Had a lovely day yesterday - we went to Kew Gardens
and had a picnic with friends. Govt plans include immunisation for
c. 2million people, the closing of all public areas (theatres, sporting events
etc etc) banning movement of people and closing down public transport - anything
to limit its spread. Love your site read it everyday please don't even think
about giving up on it.' Onto the markets, two sells to report
- and one top up. The two sells - both sold not because I think they are
suddenly bad companies but sold to realise some cash to put into faster-moving
oil stocks. Both are
similar in that they are pretty safe solid companies - but then I have a lot of
those and feel it's time to be a touch more speculative. I feel these two are the least
likeliest in the portfolio to show good gains short-term. So sold are
Fisher (2,500
shares real trade) at 3.531 to
record a tiny loss of £35. And so too
T Clarke. I sold 1,900 on Friday
afternoon at 269 for a profit and 2,500 today at 2.542 for a loss (these were my
real trades). For web
purposes which shows 3,000 shares, let's call it
1,500 at
269 for a profit of
£45 and
1,500 at
2.542 for a loss of
£207. Those
holding though if they hold till end of play today get a 3p div as the stock
goes ex tomorrow. I would be very tempted to buy back if it should fall further.
Hurrah! A bank holiday weekend! Makets are shut
till Tuesday and I'm shutting the cafe for three days too.
Well ANOTHER cheque arrived today for £1,700! Don't ask me why or how -
all I know is I'm spending some of that money today. A new camcorder I think
and some clothes. I wonder if I'll get another cheque next year? It's all
bizarre! So I did some research on the net and looked at prices
from UK retailers and found that they are anything from £1200 - £3500 .
It got me thinking ...hmm I wonder how much these
chairs could be bought for at trade prices, so I researched it further and
located a Chinese company who manufacture and export top of the range
chairs from $500 - $ 860 US dollars , approx £300- £500 per chair min order
15 chairs.
Their range of chairs is very good and they also have other massage related
products to export, I for one think this would be a lucrative growth business
to be in, I have surplus warehouse space for the storage and distribution of
the products, but I would need a partner(s) for the sales and marketing.
I would appreciate your thoughts on this and
wandered if you or any other of your readers would be interested in looking
into doing a deal.
This is just an idea at the moment and obviously due diligence would have
to be carried out, mail me if you find this of interest. Obviously your original targets on Burren have
been well surpassed and riding the price up has served you well. Do you
re-evaluate the company or just continue to ride the trend up until it stalls
or reverses.
Dragon has released some positive news recently
but how much was priced in, speculation etc. Any thoughts would be much
appreciated. It's true what they say, holding winners is sometimes more
stressful than holding small losers'. Onto the markets. I wasn't intending
to trade today but the breakout from my old friend
Vanco (VAN) which has made me
huge profits over the last 2 years looked too good to ignore.
Following on from my ramblings about coffee houses yesterday, Caffe Nero
has opened up a branch just round the corner from my cafe. I was
having a look at the shares and wondering whether they are overpriced. A market
cap of £125m or so looks a bit steep to me. There
are other websites where you can get the info such as www.hemscott.net and
www.digital look.com Now the markets. With the BH weekend
looming there's not much going on. So many people are away and trading volumes
are very thin.
We took Christopher to the specialist again today who basically said
Christopher is just going to be a small boy and apart from that there's nothing
wrong with him and we are not to worry. The London branches aren't good
enough although I have to say when I've visited out of town ones they've been
OK. The market is being extremely kind to
me yet again today as the brilliant portfolio (though I say it myself!) is
really prospering! Interesting that
Brammer has announced increased
profits under the new accounting system every company is being forced to adopt.
It's pushed the price up a little. Brammer is one of those companies
that I just know one morning I will wake up and like Broadcastle have an instant
20% profit on a bid. How long I have to wait? Well, as I said, I'm patient to
get my rewards. Robbie Burns has been trading successfully for over 7 years, having spent 1996 to 2001 as finance and general editor for Sky TV's text services. Robbie has started this commentary page on Sky and Channel 5 text in 2000 and ran it until summer 2002, during which time he made profits of more than £50,000, even during the bear market from 2001. Robbie now runs an independent cafe and catering business, but trades more or less full time. He uses ISA's and PEP's to avoid tax liabilities and runs his own pension fund in a SIPP. Visit his site here
We had an excellent meal up the road from the hotel - an amazing
restaurant that's really passionate about its food and it shows. I only wish
there was a similar one near where I live. And to make up for going to a posh
one we went to a burger place on the last night!
Nice is much underrated - there's a buzzy atmosphere and some good hotels.
The only downside is a pebbly beach but as I'm not a great beach fan it doesn't
bother me.
Christopher had his first swim in a pool and loved it despite being dive
bombed by Laurent's son Nicolas! Looks like I am going to have to take him
swimming a lot.
On the way back we were hit by a three hour delay on the flight back which
buggered up our plans of getting Christopher home in time for bedtime. The poor
little mite had a terrible time at the airport, the plane and the journey home.
Still, looks like he's forgotten about it already.
Right, back to business! My book is rolling off the presses at the moment
- once the books are bunged into boxes and go to the publisher they'll then make
their way to you!
Actually, I'm not even sure why stocks were marked down so much but most
of them seem to be on the way back today and looking down my list there's not
too much damage - in fact some have even gone up!
MTL Instruments my most
recent buy seems to have had an interesting ride - looks like the market-makers
tried to shake out holders with a massive tree-shake and then put the price back
up again - now they've widened the spread to try and put people off buying.
This is all good news - the mm's are obviously short of stock - it'll only
take the odd institution to come into this excellent and undervalued stock to
see it fly. The shares are worth at least a fiver and they'll get there!
Another good riser for me is
Highway Insurance - up well the last few days and very strong against a
weak market. My feeling is the shares should be trading up at the 75p level -
again I am confident that's where they will end up.
Two of my faves Burren and
CSR got hit - but they've bounced
back today and I can live with volatility as I still believe both will end up a
lot higher than they are now.
Burren in particular is trying to re-gain the 800 level in a hurry!
Tullow Oil is trying to make up
lost ground as well.
The two that puzzle me are Costain
and Hunting. Hunting seems to
have been hit for no obvious reason other than it supplies oil companies.
Good solid companies like VP,
White Young and
Hill and Smith have stayed pretty
much as they are - good shares to have during a sudden drop.
Looks like we could be volatile for a while to come and share picking must
be done with great care - I feel like I've dumped anything that would be too
risky.
It's tempting to get back into shorting and it would seem sensible to look
around for a couple of shorts to balance a long portfolio - and I'm looking!Wendesday 12th October
He's a determined little fellow and is always very busy! He just had to
climb the stairs three times yesterday before going to bed.
Now bad news for readers. This is the last update... until Monday! We're
off for a long weekend to the south of France and leave tomorrow morning, so
next update/e-mails on Monday. Not sure what you can read at lunchtime instead
of this site.
Could be a chance for you to start a new hobby? How about buying Knitting
Weekly? Or catch up on the latest celebrity news with Next, OK, Nuts or
Knockers!
Or.. get the Radio Times.. maybe it's changed since the last time I bought
it which was the Xmas issue 1991!
Or.. grab all the junk mail and instead of binning it, read it - you never
know, you might win an amazing prize! (Don't forget to keep and use your free
pen!)
A quick look at the mailbag: Hello Robbie, its
Peter from Co Mayo again with a
question on the NAV on an investment trust.
Although I understand what they are please could you tell me why some
NAV's are way above the price of the underlying share and why some others are at
about the same price and why a few of them are below.
Who determines the discount or premium in a NAV and more to the point if
you were looking to buy an investment trust should you look for a discounted NAV
or one that is at a premium? - Or does it really matter?'
Hi Peter - I don't pay any attention to NAV's unless it's an investment
trust then they become important.
With a trust, the price goes up and down based on the NAV. Generally if a
NAV is a lot lower than the share price market-makers reckon the shares are
risky. If there is only a small discount to the NAV, they reckon they are not!
I bought 1,500 shares
yesterday at 389.5 and another
1,500 today at
395. Target
500, stop
370.
I've been hoping for a post results price dip since the 5th but it didn't
happen dammit! In fact all it's done is start to go up again. Which is why I've
bought some today and yesterday.
I'd hoped to buy some more today at a cheaper price but it went up 5p even
though it was XD - oh well, never mind, I had to pay 5p more. Just shows how
strong it looks!
This one ticks all my boxes. Profits are rising fast and the dividend has
been raised - superb results were announced last week - they already look worth
a fiver to me rather than the current £4.
Downside is limited to.. well, I can't see any at all. The extra profits
announced and the good likelihood of more progress just isn't in the price yet.
The shares have been going up 100p a year ever since 2003 and with good
reason. The chart looks amazing and 500p could end up being a conservative
target.
Private investors aren't interested in this one at all which is another
plus! Generally there are few trades but some good trading among institutions.
There isn't an active bulletin board discussing it - yet another plus!
The company has an excellent website which I read in detail before I bought. And
management seems excellent and determined to keep the company's profits going
up.
Any negatives? Well, there are only three market-makers which means they
can muck about with prices, widen spreads to try and stop trading. They will
almost certainly try tree-shakes from time to time.
But I don't care about these negatives because I'll be holding for a few
months and would be very surprised if I didn't get the (at least) 20% I'm after.
Highway Insurance reported
today it's bought another insurance company (and there I was yesterday thinking
it was going to be bought itself).
This looks an excellent buy - shares were initially up 2p - up just 0.25p
now - but this shows management are really determined to get shareholder value
and my impression is targets for the share should be raised to 80p.
The market-makers are happy to drop the share to try and scare out small
shareholders but as there is no real downside from here, here's one shareholder
that is staying in whatever dramatic treeshakes they might try!
Burren continues its
excellent comeback and is only 30p away from the recent high it made. I still
reckon 1000+ is a good target.
Hill and Smith and
Gyrus look very strong today.
Delta is motoring right now and
there could be a breakout on the cards.
I'm glad I kept my nerve with
Tullow Oil and didn't fold when it was dropping.
Dignity is consolidating at a
higher price and it won't take much for it to start more progress.Tuesday 11th October
I intended to bring it in after the lunch rush but forgot it completely
until this morning. Of course it was gone. Oh well, I kind of expect to lose one
every three years and this one has just about lasted.
I can't really complain - I have plenty of money so buying another one
isn't an issue. It's just a bit sad to think you can't leave anything anywhere
because it'll get taken. But I can't say I'm in the best of moods today.
So let me hit the mailbag. Bang! Ah, that's better... So to cheer myself
up I'll publish a fan mail. I don't normally do this but as I'm pissed off
today, here it is:
Peter writes: ' I read your
website notes almost every day and find them very inspirational and educational.
You may ask what am I doing right, well the fact that you trade/invest,
everything
is transparent rather than the tipsters on various publications/websites who
probably never trade. I listened to the interview on Radio WM today and your
image was further enhanced by the content.'
Thanks Peter, obviously you are a wise man!
David writes: 'Robbie, my
headlong rush into 'oils' resulted in a 5% drop in the value of my portfolio
following BP's results last week when 'production levels' were affected as a
result of Katrina.!!
Hi David. I quite honestly can't tell you where the oil price is going.
All I know is the trend is still up long-term so I remain with it.
In the meantime I topped up yet again in my holding of
Highway Insurance (HWY) - this
time picking up another 10,000
shares at 60.5p - I won't add
these to the website holdings as I already have two lots - that's enough for
website purposes.
This share is ludicrously undervalued with fair value I think at 75p. The
market cap is only £120m - this is way too low for a company whose profits are
soaring.
It also looks to me like a superb bid target. If I was in charge of
something like Admiral I would be very happy to buy it out for around the 70-75
mark.
I've also done a big top up of funeral chain
Dignity (DTY) - I'm already up
more than £2,000 on my spreadbet at 380.
Dignity was always floated cheaply and it just keeps going up and is
growing by acquisition. Still looks cheap which is why I've bought more! And
market crashes? Well, doesn't really affect a funeral chain does it?
The oils continue to go back up quite nicely after the recent sell off and
I'm still glad I held my nerve - that's quite a difficult thing to learn and
something I'll be discussing at the seminars.
Burren holds well over 800
and just needs a bit more consolidation before going up again.
Dragon is climbing very well
today as is Tullow.
I'm very tempted to top up in
Costain - looks like it's hit the bottom and there should be a good
steady rise back up to 50p from here - ridiculously cheap at the moment.
Elsewhere it's also pretty good with most of the portfolio up again.
Hunting and
Gyrus have been quiet recently
though a bit of a kick should get 'em going soon enough. As I always say, a
matter of patience when you have the right shares!Monday 10th October
Dragon Oil,
Burren Energy and
Tullow are all rebounding
strongly today. My feeling is to hold onto them all for a while longer.
Pretty much everything else is also up at least a bit today including
Hills,
Rotork and
White Young.
CSR continues in the middle of its recent 650-700 range - but call me
Gypsy Rose Burns if you like but my crystal ball tells me there will be sometime
over the next couple of weeks a return to the 700 level for a while where there
will be a lot of resistance - for how long I don't know. But once through 700,
800 will be a doddle.
Costain continues to puzzle
me - I can't understand how on earth it can currently be rated so lowly given
recent results even given there are a few problems with the pension fund.
My old friend Dignity is
really going for it and there seems no stopping progress. Looks possible that
500 is on the cards by year end if it can carry on like this even through the
short-term downtrends.
Friday 7th October
Then off to the cinema to see Pride and Prejudice. It's a bit of a girlie
costume drama film but it's not too bad. No car chases which was a bit
disappointing.
But I did keep thinking: that's Keira Knightley - why is she wearing funny
old-fashioned clothes?
Take your wife, partner, mistress or lover - they will enjoy it. (Sorry -
assume that 99% of readers are blokes).
Talking of going out, next week we are off for a long weekend in the south
of France - we're going to a posh hotel and taking Christopher.
We're meeting Laurent and Nathalie - Laurent I became friends with through
e-mails - you might remember I took a gamble and we went to Switzerland to meet
and stay with them and that was a great decision.
Laurent and I can have fun discussing trading tactics and Elizabeth and
Nathalie can go to the shops and spend the money we make trading.
We're leaving Thursday and coming back Sunday - so next week you will be
without me for two days. You'll just have to get over it.
Onto the mailbag: Ken
writes: Re your recent comments over Livingstone and parking charges. As a
Londoner living abroad, I'd be interested to know who votes for this communist
cretin. Surely no decent right thinking Londoner would??
Ken, not next time with a bit of luck!
David writes: Er, hang on, some
mistake surely? I note that you (Robbie) didn't condone it, but I have to
respond to the speeder (and his mate) who e-whinged in to you!
So are we saying it's OK to speed and the cops n' courts and govt are just
nasty money grabbing baskets ?
Of course, I'm sure all speeders will say that they know what they are
doing, are in control, etc, and will never hurt anyone.
Utter rollocks! Robbie - how would you feel if some speeding driver hit
you or one of your family? I suspect you'd want them to get more than a fine. I
know I would.
Agreed, David, I don't condone speeders in residential areas where someone
could get hurt. What I don't like is sneaky cameras on three lane A roads where
there are no pedestrians and at 4 in the morning just because you are going 70
instead of 60 at no risk to anyone at all, you get fined. Now this is pure
revenue raising and nothing else!!!
Dix writes: You seem
slightly jittery about your oil profits as well , you might! Next month Gordon
Brown has his mini budget.
Comments noted, Dix! And they are very fair ones!
So sold is Templeton Emerging
Markets - my reason is if the market was to reverse, emerging markets
tend to get hit first.
I sold for 231.78 to take
nice profits of £1,085. This is a
great and quite fast profit from an investment trust - they usually move a lot
slower.
Well, it's been a bit of a crap week hasn't it? But those like me
investing medium term still have only lost a small amount compared with the
profits built up - as I often mention I don't mind giving a bit back to confirm
whether a longer-term downtrend is upon us or not.
If I feel it is, then I'd sell up. I'd really hate to sell right at the
bottom of a short-term downtrend.
I always do a sweep for shares going up on a bad down day and yesterday's
sweep came up with a cracker of a share for the future.
Really just waiting for the right time to get in on this company which
looks beautifully undervalued and undiscovered - I expect to buy sometime next
week.
Elsewhere oils still look a bit jittery. I wish I knew whether I'm doing
the right thing in holding on and I think I am! However they at least seem back
on an even keel and most are up a bit.
CSR has held up well during
the downmove and I believe patience will prevail. On the way up today are
Hills,
Rotork,
Hunting,
Burren,
Highway and
Croda. Thursday 6th October
I'm not surprised David Cameron is now favourite to become Tory Party
leader - he is the only one that gives them some kind of chance.
It was great to see a young guy give a speech direct with no notes - what
a comparison with boring and arrogant David Davies with a prepared and very
lacklustre speech.
It would be excellent for our democracy if the Tories can really begin to
fight back- a start would be a simplified tax system.
Even better would be if the state gave us some freedoms back and stopped
being such a nanny. Even better than that would be some new ideas.
Talking of petty officialdom, a reader writes:
'Maybe something in this. Mate of mine got a couple of speeding fines
about 8mths ago. He never replied to them and has heard nothing since. 3mths ago
I received two in the space of a fortnight, I thought I would try his approach
and so far so good, nothing.
It does, doesn't it - please don't blame this site though if you end up in
court!
Interesting notice outside the nearest rival to my cafe, Caffe Nero today
reported by loyal customers: 'Sorry - we have run out of coffee'.
Glad to report this has never happened at my place. I always know when
we're doing well - I can never get at the bloody coffee machine to make myself
one!
Meeting with the publishers today who will be 'marketing me' - so you may
start to hear me on the radio and TV blathering on.
If you live anywhere near Birmingham, I'm on Radio WM between 1pm and 2pm
tomorrow. It's a phone interview which we're really doing at 11.30am.. ssshhh,
don't tell anyone!
It's during a couple of down days that I feel the difference between
'traders' and 'investors' comes to light. I would call myself a medium-term
investor - so it's easier for me to be more relaxed.
However traders who trade in and out faster than me have to make very fast
decisions. Unless you are really, really good - I think it's easier to make
money as an investor than a trader.
In fact I believe the vast majority of traders lose, especially day
traders. Winners far often than not, are 'investors' who have the time to ride
out falls.
It's amazing how sentiment can change in a few minutes: for example
tomorrow things could be completely different with a strong rebound.
Then those who got out today will curse. Those courageous enough to buy
today will be laughing. Me? Well, I kind of sit on the sidelines, cash in hand.
I've got rid of anything I deem really risky.
Which is why I sold Aminex
this morning at 17.3 to bank a
tidy profit of £587. This was the
riskiest of my oils and just had to be sold. I also sold the other risky oil
from my Sipp, Hardy Oil
yesterday.
This is a sensible move to reduce my exposure to the sector and taking a
little profit at the same time.
I'd be interested in getting back in, because though risky, at the right
price it could bring big rewards.
What's interesting in times like this is how good it is to have the good
steady strong stocks which are unmoved by all this.
So companies I hold like VP,
White Young Green,
Gyrus,
Hils and
Highway all hold their own today
(and yesterday)- they're held long-term by investors like me and institutions so
there is little selling.
I always get bombarded with panicked e-mails on days like this. One was
entitled 'Blood on the streets'.
So apart from selling Aminex I'm just sitting there. The portfolio is
faring OK, with the oils obviously hit. However for now I'm riding out the
storm. We'll soon see whether I'm right or not, won't we?
I spoke to market historian David Schwartz today - he reckoned it's
probably a short term downturn even though he is long-term bearish.
Burren and
Dragon have been hit the hardest
- but they are both as likely to bounce just as fast as they went down - as a
medium-term holder of both I'm still in!
Tullow is probably the most
disappointing but it's a recent buy so it's not surprising. It's still not near
the stop loss so I will hold unless that SL is breached.Wednesday 5th October
Well, so what? You could say. Well, it's just wonderful watching him
develop and I'm so glad
I'm not a working father - the thought of not seeing him during the day would
kill me.
Kenny writes: Just read
your rant on congestion charges and the usual 'storm on regardless' attitude of
Ken Livingstone.
They are working on it over here now, (N.Ireland), lets hope there is a
creditable alternative party before the next election.
Thanks Kenny - agreed. Democracy seems to have gone out of the window.
Vic writes: Is there no
chance of Livingstone being voted out? Or are the others equally enthusiastic
for the congestion tax?
Hi Vic. No chance for another 3 years! The would be Tory mayor of London
said he would scrap the 'charge'.
David Cameron looks the best of a continued poor Tory potential leadership
bunch. They'll still do well to win the next election unless there is a house
price crash.
Suddenly you remember all those warnings.. shares can go down, as well as
up. The market and certainly the FTSE was due a bit of a correction.
The thing is though, if your portfolio is generally full of good quality
companies you won't get too hard hit on a day like this and I haven't been.
It's when your portfolio is packed with loss-making riskier companies that
you could see heavy falls. As always on days like this I never panic.
And that's what I did - and nothing really stood out as an out and out
sell for now. Obviously I'm sitting on massive profits and would hate to lose
them - so one has to decide - is this a minor correction or a sign the markets
are due a massive fall?
I wish I knew for sure! But for now I'll sit it out - with big gains
sitting there I have plenty of room for manoeuvre - ie, I could lose a few more
points and be certain we're going down but get it confirmed. It's always
impossible to get out at the top.
For example Burren is down
40 points or so. But it's still worth 1000 in my opinion so why would I sell
today? No reason.
I made a very difficult early decision and sold the
18,000
RTD shares bought yesterday close
to the market opening for 22.15p
to take a small profit of £74
(pretty much breakeven after costs). It's because with every share I have a plan
and my plan on this one simply looks like it won't work.
The company wants to buy out a similar company - this seems actually a
rather good move - but the reason I sold for now is it's likely to keep the
share price around where it is now for a while. I was after a quick bounce to
26p which doesn't look likely now.
The company is raising money through a funding so shareholders are likely
to be offered new shares at a lower price - maybe 20p at a guess.
So while all this is good news for long-term holders, short-term I don't
think they're going that far higher and that's why I sold - hope this makes
sense. Long-term RTD holders shouldn't worry and probably pick up the new
shares.
I think the company made a mistake and should have issued this statement a
few days ago to stop the price slide. The new shares could then have been issued
at a higher price.
Most of my lot are holding up well, some unchanged and
VP and
Hill and Smith are up! For right
now I feel fine with a few small drops given the recent huge rises.
One thing I have learned from my years of investing is, as also quoted by
the HitchHikers Guide to the Galaxy and Corporal Jones is 'DON'T PANIC!'Tuesday 4th October
Are you interested in voting for any of them? No, nor me. Not one
innovative or sparking idea between the lot of them.
The Tories are probably better off going for David Cameron - he might
connect with younger Tories and he seems to have one or two ideas there.
At least in the 70s and 60s politicians seemed to care about the country
and were passionate about their politics. Now everything is stage-managed and
it's all about soundbites. Yuk.
I've ordered three new Teletubby dvd's today because we're had the same
one on for weeks and it's driving me crazy.
Maybe there should be one for share traders. 'One day, in trading shares
land.. a share arrived which we bought and it doubled the next morning...' Fat
chance, eh?
The mailbag will be back tomorrow!
In fact I've had quite a lot of mail about this one in the last few days
as holders have been hit by quite a sharp downturn all the way from 28p. I have
no idea why it's fallen but at this price it must be undervalued.
The real problem here is the share is manipulated by the market-makers and
is also it is the darling share of lots of small investors which means you
really have to get your timing right (as small investors tend to panic in and
out) to make money and be prepared to cut any loss fast. It's not one to mess
around with.
It's not one of those loss-making tech companies - it makes a decent
profit and the company has been putting out bullish noises. So on the
risk/reward ratio looks in favour of a reward! Last time I bought this at 6.5p
and sold at 19p trebling my money. 20% will do this time round!
Star performer today is Derwent
Valley - I have a fairly large spread long on this and it's just carried
on going up ever since I bought. Another nice rise today.
Dignity is also on the star
list this really has done nothing but go up ever since I bought it when it was a
new issue at around 250 - looks like it'll be a doubler! My current spread long
is looking very nice.
CSR is looking strong today
and is heading back to the 700p area.
Hill and Smith fights back well and going back to the 220p level - still
worth 250 I believe.
Templeton EM is doing the
business every day. The oils are holding up well with
Burren and
Dragon heading up towards
breakouts.
On the disappointing side today is
Tullow. However it's had a strong run and a little retrace is probably
healthy.Monday 3rd October
This despite 80% of locals saying 'no' in a 'consultation exercise'. IE,
it matters not what the people think, he was always going to do it - he couldn't
care less about what the people think.
It means if we want to take Christopher to school, or go to Tescos it'll
cost us £8 every time! If I want to visit my mum it's £8!
And ironically it's the poorer drivers who won't be able to afford it -
the rich get nice empty roads - for example my millionaire sister loves it!
Wouldn't it be nice if everyone got together and refused to pay? Nothing
they could do about that though of course it'll never happen. Can you imagine
this happening in the USA?
OK, rant over!!!
There's one share I think I'm quite keen on - looks excellent value - but
it's shifted up a bit so really I'm hoping for a touch of weakness and buying on
a dip.
Star award today for Rotork
which has pushed over 600 - looks a bullish sign - I've patiently held a £50
spread long (profit over £7,500) on these all the way from 441 and I'm hoping
for at least another 50 points. A very bullish move today which opens up 700.
Hunting too looks great
today, just nudging previous resistance which it ought to get through.
Hill and Smith looks to
have bottomed at 200p after its recent retrace and looks set to climb back - I
don't have any worries on this one - the fundamentals speak for themselves.
Recent buy Tullow Oil is
pausing for breath - looks undervalued. Some decent buying coming into
Highway Insurance which should be
in the 70s.
White Young Green stormed
up on Friday afternoon - getting more and more tempted to take profits but some
rather large buying makes me still hold.
Dignity is on the rise and
so is Gyrus.
Templeton Emerging Markets is
still doing the business so more than happy with my very lovely looking
portfolio!Friday 30th Sept
However although I've taken some profits a lot of this profit is still on
paper only. But I do believe prices for the portfolio still have some way to go.
Christopher is a very naughty boy but I love it! He attended 'monkey
music' this morning in which he is supposed to make music with the other
children and parents.
However he got bored fast and ended up trying to, er.. well, pull a girl's
hair and was more interested in exploring the room.
I don't mind. The way he's determined to climb the stairs on his own makes
me think he'll be pretty good in business and will be able to pay for me and the
Mrs extremely posh nursing home once we are past it.
Of course what will be more likely is he'll turn out to be a heavy metal
fan and will turn up outside the house with lots of friends on noisy motorbikes.
P.S Know what you think but you heard it from me first.'
Well, Donovan I actually have no idea at all! I've tried to guess indices
in the past and have come unstuck.
I would guess much depends on how the oil price/oil stocks do as the FTSE
is now heavily influenced by these.
Meanwhile Eva writes: ' It is
interesting that you should say that you think oil bubble will burst at one
point. In view of our growing demand on oil worldwide, and the fact the it is a
finite resource, my view is that the price will not drop.
Thanks Eva - yes interested in opinions on this. It's just that there is a
rule in life: What goes up, must come down.
But I don't pretend to be an expert on this - I'm just riding the trend
while it's there. It just wouldn't surprise me that at some point in the future
prices will come back!
Other oils also going well -
Burren is trying to crack the 850 area again - and
Dragon is holding well after
recent massive gains.
White Young Green is really
doing the business after results - now 330p - my buy at 265 looking very good
now and is well over my target price - staying there while it's strong!
Rotork heads up into the
590s - just needs a kick over 600 to open up 630 at which point I would expect
to take profits.
VP Group put out a pretty
confident trading statement today - looks like it'll gradually go higher.
Costain is looking better
at last and I would hope it will gradually move back to 50p where it belongs.
High risk SIPP buy Hardy Oil
mentioned here a few days ago just out of interest is doing well today.Thursday 29th Sept
Pre-market prices just show orders generally left over from days gone by
and therefore bear no resemblance to the real trading price after 8am. So
really, don't look at prices before 8am!!
I've switched into another oil - now I know I have a lot of oil but that's
the hot sector and you need to be in the hot sector du jour.
So I switched to Tullow Oil (TLW)
a FTSE 250 oil stock which is really going places (Tescos... the post
office...just kidding) and I've bought
2,500 shares at 256.72 as
well as taking out a large spread bet which I shall keep to myself. Target
300p Stop
225.
There seems to be no stopping this one and I'm jumping on board - looking
at the amazingly good recent statement the profits are coming in very nicely and
the market cap makes the company to me still undervalued and I reckon it's a buy
still up to the 300 level.
Of course one could argue there is a risk in me being in so many oils but
I feel the sector still has a way to go and unlike the tech boom there are real
profits.
Dragon made a good stab at
the 200 mark today but couldn't quite make it and there are not surprisingly
profit-takers at this level. I am certainly not among them and feel there is
more to come once the 200p level is broken.
Delta reported some great
results today - the only bad news is the litigation - but that is easily in the
price and the shares are worth around 175p, not 135p and I continue to hold.
Hill and Smith trades in a
210-220 area for now. I'll hold as long as the 200 holds, which it should. Just
a matter of patience here.
Templeton shows no signs of
stopping and Costain is bucking
up - looks like 42p is the bottom and I expect a slow climb back up to the much
fairer 50p area. Wendesday 28th Sept
Nothing really standing out as a buy right now and as the portfolio
continues to steam ahead I shall carry on sticking with everything as I think
there are more rises to come.
My two favourite oils, Burren
and Dragon are doing the business
with Burren looking ready for a break up to 900 and Dragon looking like's it's
going to bust out to the 200 area.
My unfavoured oil, Emerald
reported today. Actually a good report but as a market maker only stock they can
push the price around as they like.
Some nice big buys coming into
Highway Insurance today - a jump through 59 could see a nice rise.
Templeton Emerging Markets
impresses yet again with solid rises every day. More to come? Looks like it!
CSR is taking its time but
slowly climbing closer back to the 700 level which is crucial.
Hunting is recovering from recent
profit-taking and starts to look strong again.
Rotork looks very exciting on the
verge of a major breakout. Tuesday 27th Sept
Great results from my patient
White Young Green holding! Profits and turnover are booming and so is the
share price. Just a question of when to take my very large profit.
Templeton Emerging Markets
continues to do the business for me - I'm up more than 15% now and it is still
flying. Lovely share.
Delta managed to sneak out
a statement just before results regarding a court action that could cost it 10%
of turnover - although it is likely to be a lot less.
My risky oil play Aminex is
slowly going higher and I'm already up nearly 15%. So far the risk is paying
off.
A very exciting breakout from
Rotork going on. I was lucky with this one and did a £50 spread upbet by
mistake instead of the intended £15 a few months ago - consequently I'm up more
than £6k... well sometimes you just take some luck!
Two great companies, Hill And
Smith and Highway Insurance
are pausing for breath before what I expect is another move up for both of them.
Fenner is going well -
although I sold my shares I still have a £70 spread long and glad I kept it - I
wonder whether a 200p bid is on the cards at some stage?
Costain is my only current
disappointment - I've looked and re-looked and can only say the shares look to
be way undervalued and should be trading above 50p which is why I don't intend
to cut and run. Monday 26th Sept
Actually it's quite fun and it's nice to see him be so active. Except...
shock horror for me on Sunday morning. I had volunteered for the 6am-8am shift.
Yes - the elderly cat for the first time in years had for some reason
crapped on the floor. I panicked as animal crap is full of nasty things.
Thank goodness he's been fine since. It goes to show though you literally
have to watch them every second.
Over the years I've had many requests along the lines of running some kind
of weekend course or seminar or the like.
However the Mrs wants quite a lot of cash to 'do up' the new flat and I
don't especially want to use any trading profits as things are going rather
well. So for the first time I've thought about selling myself (as it were). Any
offers?
Right, onto the mailbag: Kenny
here in N. Ireland. Just come back from two weeks in Orlando and gather
from the web you 'may' have purchased property again??
(1) Do you have any thoughts on whether its better to buy a small amount
of a dearer share, say at £8/10, or a larger amount of a cheaper share at 20/50p
? Does it really matter as long as the company is OK?
(2) Of all the shares you hold at present which will you hold longer term
to give steady growth?
Glad to see most of your holdings doing well at the moment. Your website
is always worth a visit.
Hi Kenny. Well, I bought a property because my wife wasn't happy renting
and you have to keep the lady of your life happy. I don't think it is the right
time to buy yet so it wasn't a business decision!
Re 1- makes no difference to me though generally stocks priced under 50p
are usually illiquid and difficult to trade and are often loss-making risky
ones.
2 - My long-term holds are Burren (already held for a long time), Dragon,
(unless the oil bubble bursts), Hill and Smith, Costain and Templeton.
Viv writes: Do you know of
any companies which allow one to have a spreadbet on AIM or small cap stocks? I
have fished about and most of these guys only provide UK350 stuff.
Viv, most of them do but don't quote them on their websites you need to
use the phone and ask! Cantor offer spreads on companies with a market cap of
more than £50m.
Most bizarre is Burren hit
for 25p because of a Guardian story regarding a share placing at 800p. Even if
true, it makes no difference whatsoever to the fact that Burren will be over
1000p by Xmas and is still undervalued.
Dragon inevitably got hit
by profit-taking despite a good-looking statement this morning and again this
doesn't bother me at all - the shares are worth a lot more.
I thought as my e-mail list is currently closed I would share with all of
you one of my positions for my high-risk SIPP. Especially as the share concerned
is very liquid despite being on AIM.
A few days ago I bought into Hardy
Oil (HDY) at 232p which was sent to my e-mail list. I added more at 235p
this morning.
CSR is on the comeback just
as I expected and I feel confident this one will spark much higher once through
the sticky 700p area.
Some non-movers are sparking up today - a very good move from
Fletcher King, all of a sudden
motoring higher. Looks good.
Hill and Smith's treeshake
is over and that one too is going nicely higher - once through 220 I aim for
250.
Highway Insurance too is
suddenly going up fast - all three show it's worth keeping patience with very
good stocks. Derwent Valley is
powering up through 1300 which looks bullish for another 100p.Friday 23rd Sept
I think he was a bit bemused by some of the answers. He couldn't seem to
believe I didn't follow any particular method/system/guru.
I just said all of this stuff including doing things like watching
Bloomberg was all clutter which I didn't want in my head. I like to keep my head
clear so I can THINK!!
I had a quick look round some bulletin boards today for a bit of fun and
it's amazing how many posters out there shouldn't be buying shares at all.
The type who panic the moment their favoured share goes down 10p - all the
moaning and agonising that goes on!
I have looked on a couple of sites, Cantor and ETX Capital, and I can only
find quotes for FTSE100 shares.
Also, how do they cope with things such as script issues of shares,
demergers and dividends, all of which have an impact on the share price?
Hi Steve!
Basically don't worry - spreadfirms take all this into account - if a
share price is changed because of special reasons the spread will be adjusted.
Regarding trading outside the FTSE 100 you need to pick up an old
fashioned implement - the phone! Just call and they will normally quote any
company with a market cap of over £50m.
It's very healthy for the share to give back a bit but as I think it'll be
1000 by Xmas the dip today was a welcome chance to get in again to add to
holdings at 241 and 466.
I'm confident this superby managed company is still undervalued by a
couple of pounds for now - and more next year.
I needed to flog something to raise some cash for the top up so
reluctantly I flogged my Brammer
today for 200.5p to take profits
of a massive £4,312.
The only reason I picked this one is although it topped 200p it's stalled
for a while. I think I'll get another chance to get in.
CSR is beginning to climb
back and it looks confirmed the share is in a 650-700 range for the time being -
probably needs a rest before it breaks through 700 and moves on wards and
upwards. Just a question of relaxing and waiting.
Otherwise it's a quiet end to what was an explosive start to the week with
Burren in particular doing the business as well as good gains for many of the
others. Here's to a resumption of the upwards moves next week!Thursday 22nd Sept
Tax papers are being taken over to the cafe and stored there. It's a very
nice experience and certainly seems to take stress out of things.
I think it's very good for traders to be clutter free. Clutter also
clutters up the brain and therefore doesn't leave as much space as there could
be for thinking about trades properly.
Amazingly I've had another result with those old Midland And Scottish
shares. These were shares I bought back in 1998 which got delisted. In 2003 I
got a cheque for £2,500 and another one a few weeks back.
I suddenly remembered I also had some in a PEP with Barclays! So I mailed
Barclays who looked into it and this morning... £2,500 has been put into my Pep.
And there's another payout next year!! A right result!
If you ever bought any shares in Midland And Scottish and never had a
payout, let me know and I'll send you the details of how to get the cash you are
owed!
Onto the mailbag. Hi Rob, I want to place a spread bet that the Nikkei
will go up and put a stop loss as well Can you advise on the phraseology?/what I
should say? Kate
Dear Kate:
'Hallo, this is account number XXX'
'Can you give me a quote on the (daily, weekly or December) Nikkei please....'
'Thanks, I'd like to buy for (£? a point) with a (guaranteed) stop loss at (XXXX).
Kate you have to decide the expiry date on the bet, ie is it to expire
today or December or when?
Do you want a stop loss (not guaranteed - you get the best price they can
but may be below your stop) or a guaranteed one (that is the price you will
definitely get). A guaranteed stop loss may cost you a bit extra on the spread.
Burren carries on doing the
business - God knows what the upside is here but it could be immense - one I am
definitely sticking with even after more than trebling my money on one of the
web buys (profits over £20,000) and nearly doubling on the top up.
Other oils also going well include
Dragon Oil (200p in sight) and
Emerald (200p needs to be conquered).
CSR is taking a breather
today after directors cashed in options - it may trade in a 650-700 range for a
bit and I'm still looking to top up on the current weakness. I still reckon 1000
is on the cards.
The Hill and Smith
tree-shake looks to be nearly over and I anticipate a solid move up over the
next few weeks.
Otherwise as it appears quiet today I'm off to the park this afternoon to
take Christopher to the swings. He's already eyeing up the girls... a true
Burns! Wendesday 21st Sept
I used to work for national papers a few years ago and edited for The Sun,
The Star and The Independent.
I can safely say standards are really low at the moment with obviously
ridiculously made-up rubbish allowed through by the sub-editors.
However let me not be a hypocrite here as when I was editor of a local
paper in Solihull I wrote a front page headline:
NUCLEAR CLOUD HOVERS OVER SOLIHULL
Yes, a bit sensationalist! The favourite headline I ever wrote was for The Sun.
HONEYMOON OFF - MY PUSSY IS MISSING!
And my other favourite was a story about a man who wanted his ashes after
he died to be hurled at the Alps (He was a skiing fan). My headline?
Well. There's a surprise.. well congrats Jeffrey, you did something right!
Nabeel writes: Brammer profits
for 2000 shares on 30 points (172.8 - 202.5) is about £600 rather than
£364.A cook-up down!
Thanks Nabeel - well, at least I got it wrong doing myself out of cash!
Onto the markets.I guess you're all sick of me saying.. yet another good day,
blah blah but.. well, yes it IS another good day!
Burren again is the star of
the show. How glad am I that I kept my nerve when it tumbled to 700.
850 looked pretty crucial and once we're through there 1000 looks a good
target before Christmas.
Dragon, my other excellent
oil where I'm up 70 points from my original purchase and an additional spreadbet
buy is now going great guns and is heading for a high. Once broken 200p will be
the next stopping point.
Could be the last time one will be able to buy
CSR below 700p in the next few
days. Stern resistance to move higher at 700 for now.
Hunting is showing great
strength again - weak holders will have exited by now so new buyers could lift
the shares nicely.
The markdown in Hill and Smith
looks like a market-maker ploy to get recent buyers to panic sell - looks like
they want the shares to me and it won't be long before they head up through 220
and on the way to 250.
Derwent Valley is going for
it today - looks like another 100p in this one. Those on my e-mail list should
get news on some high-risk SIPP profit-taking today.Monday 19th Sept
And now Elizabeth and Christopher have got it so we were a right bunch
this weekend of snot noses and coughs. Still, looks like it's about to clear up.
Spend the time reading books and trying to get to grips with point and figure
charting.
TV must be bad - didn't turn it on once over the weekend - it's the same
old crap churned out again and again - and that's just Bloomberg!
A contributor to my Bulletin Board,
MT Glass made an interesting
point about Brokers and analysts and their forecasts.
Sometimes a share has moved to say 700p after results and a news story
comes out saying Broker buy - raises target to 650! What's that all about?
Like today, Burren produce great results, Numis is positive and 'raises
its target to 790p' when the share has already climbed to 790!
How do they get away with producing cobblers - just ignore all this
twaddle as market noise I reckon! There are too many 20-year-old 'analysts' who
have no idea what they are talking about!
Someone sent me an e-mail sent to them about a tipping service that was
being taken over by a bloke who looks like he's still at school. Take a tip from
me: don't fall for these chronic tipping services.
Mailbag time
Sue writes: It's been a while
since I emailed you with anything, but having read your site over the past
couple of days I'm intrigued as to the tax issues that have been raised.
I believed all capital gains from the sale of shares was set against your
annual capital gains tax exemption, with the dividends counted as income for tax
purposes.
Do you know what the definition of a trader is, i.e. how many trades does
an individual have to make over a defined timescale before they become a trader
rather than an investor?
Would trading within an ISA be the answer, although this denies access to
AIM and OFEX stocks?
Not sure Sue.. anyone any ideas?
Graham writes:
Just noticed this evening that a 'Price Monitoring Extension' has been
activated Galliford Try. Someone buys 114,100 shares after hours @ 71.5p and the
share closes up 2p after being 'dead' all day. Do you know what the above phrase
means? Good Luck with the house move.
Not sure, Graham - anyone got a clue?
You may have heard of point and figure charting which many believe is the
best way to make buy and sell decisions.
Onto the markets. wow! What a great day on the markets for me today with
several of my holdings simply flying higher!!
First a buy to report from Friday afternoon - I bought shedloads of
CSR. Around £70,000 worth. So I
guess you can tell I'm bullish!
I'm going to put up one of my big deals on this one for website purposes
which is 3,500 shares at
649.95 (or about £22,000 worth)
Target 900, stop
630.
The shares have already rattled higher today and I also bought more -
price as I write is around 687. Once through 700 I think it will go higher fast.
If you remember I originally bought at 446p and sold for a profit at 558p.
A great trading statement was put out and I missed the next rise to the 650
level.
However I am not daunted by this because the shares are in the middle of a
major re-rating - and this is not some crappy loss making tech share but a
company that is in the middle of the bluetooth revolution - basically cutting
edge. Let's see how it goes but I feel confident!
I flogged off the rest of my
Isotron mainly because there doesn't seem to be much buying after results
- so though there's little downside for the short-term there seems little upside
either. I would expect to get back in sometime this year depending on volumes.
So sold for 620.5 to take profits
of £337.
Burren reported a great set
of results today - this is simply one to stick with now for the promised higher
revenues and profits - I wouldn't be surprised if I held this for another year.
A great rise today but I don't feel like taking profits - there is much
more to come and short-term volatility can be ignored.
A super over 20% rise in my risky oil play
Aminex. It's right on the edge of
a major breakout - if it break 18, 23p is in play.
Templeton Emerging Markets
is storming higher and doing very well for what are normally slow-moving
investment trusts.
Recent buy Hill and Smith
is sitting pretty - with very few shares around I expect it to squeeze higher
any day. When it moves it usually goes higher by 5 or 6p all of a sudden.
Croda is on a massive
looking breakout. Dignity
continues its good-looking move higher and
VP sits at a much higher level
now. well, yet another great day!Thursday 15th Sept
I bought some YOO media and am sitting on a £7K profit but as you know
this share is extremely volatile.
I wasn't concentrating when I bought them in my Marketmaster account and
know if I had bought via a spreadbet they would have been out the door when they
hit 12p.
I have also been told that if you are considered a fulltime trader by the
Inland Revenue they can take your CGT entitlement away altogether - Has that
happened to any one you know ?
Good luck getting the apartment by the way and if I could offer any advice
- let her decorate it how she wants.
Interesting, Mark. As you know I can't give you individual advice as to
whether to sell the shares but I would ignore CGT and trade as you would have
done in a PEP.
I don't know much about this share except it's a volatile penny one so
your profits could vanish.
I don't think they can take away your CGT allowance. I believe tax offices
aren't that keen on allowing traders to claim it as a full-time job. If anyone
knows different, let me know.
Re the apartment, absolutely!!!
Onto the markets. I knew if I put out a piece saying I was thinking of taking
profits on my oil shares the market-makers would immediately make sure they all
shot up and they have to today so thanks!
Sell all my oil stocks? Hah! You must be joking!!!
Dragon and
Burren both flying today. Great
stocks - how could I ever have thought of selling?
Arrrgggghhhhh!!!! I sold off most of my
CSR ( I did keep a few luckily) a
few days ago thinking I was being very clever having bought at 445 and sold at
558 for a huge profit! I thought, I'll buy them back a bit lower in a few days.
Not so clever..stupid!!
Today a fab statement sees them up another 70p!! Talk about bad timing. I
even predicted this would happen and the shares would end up this high.
Thing is there could be even more to come and I am looking for a re-entry
point after profit-takers have moved in. Oh well, I guess I made a good profit
out of it. It just could have been a lot more.
Istotron reports tomorrow.
I see someone has been mopping up shares this morning and I anticipate a good
statement.
Dignity is up on an
excellent statement - it's a good business.
Costain continues to be weak and
I'm still surprised - at the very least they are at rock bottom here.
Hunting also disappointing right
now - but the uptrend still just about intact.
White Young Green rises
nicely in the run up to results. Highway has done very well to stay level after
going ex dividend. I expect a good lunge upwards in the coming weeks. A great
stock for income funds. Rotork,
Croda, and a lot of the rest of
the portfolio continues to do the business!Wendesday 14th Sept
Anyway the school was sweet. As was the headmistress. Very old school but
I like that - they seem interested in developing an all round education which is
good. Now.. if there are 12 apples, and two teachers.. how many apples does each
teacher get?
Er... um... yup.. beaten to it by a five-year-old. In fact I'm still not
sure of the answer. Except the teachers get a lot of apples.
All I know is I'm glad I don't have to go back to school.. so
competitive... all the homework.. the maths...
I was a bit rubbish academically. Good at English and French though.
English is easy - you just write 'dramatic irony' somewhere and that usually
grabs a few marks.
I had a look at the results from Caffe Nero today - only interested
because they've set up as a rival to my cafe close by. So far they've not hit
our business - their business is all style over substance.
I worked out from the results that each branch averages a profit of about
£22k. Hurrah - we make nearly four times that. So my one cafe is worth four
Caffe Neros!
But the question is to me, a profit of 5.5m and a market cap of 150m does
not compute. I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy the company at that price. Surely
growth is now priced in?
A look at the mailbag now. Darren
writes: 'I was looking at the chart of Highway and there was a massive rise from
47 to 56 that has since not been filled, are you not worried that the price will
not drop back to fill this area as shares normally do that have risen
dramatically?'
Hi Darren.
Yes, you have a point but remember I am not a short-term holder generally
and expect this to be 75p within six months. You are right - the shares could
dip to the early 50s and the buy could be mis-timed but don't feel I will lose
on this one given my timeframe!
Onto the markets. I still feel a little concerned.. is the market
close to a top? I think the answer could be yes and I am now warier than I was.
I've built up huge profits and don't want to lose them. It doesn't mean
though I'm worried about every share it'll end up being a sector thing.
Another profit-taking move today - a spreadbet sale of
Sondex at
241 to bank profits of
£780. My basic reasoning was the
share price has been very disappointing recently - I still like the company and
would be interested in buying in, maybe close to the next results.
The oil shares look interesting - basically they are stalled at the moment
- are they stalled before a big meltdown.. or is it a pause before they go up
some more. Really wish I knew but I guess if it looks like the former I should
think about some selling.
So on my current should I take profits list/sell are Dragon, Burren,
Hunting, and Emerald ? The jury is out!
Recent buy Highway went
ex-div today so I'll be picking up a decent cheque shortly - so although the
shares are down 1.25 they are actually up a touch in reality as the div was 1.6p
Rotork continues to power
on the pounds for my spreadbetting account and is breaking out again today
opening up 600 in time. Otherwise it's really quiet today!Tuesday 13th Sept
First off Vanco - despite
the excellent results what the market appears to be telling me is that they
reckon the price is high enough for now. And I've made tons of money trading
Vanco over the last two years.
Also sold is CSR at
558.45 to take quick giant
profits of £2,236. It has to be
sold really! There are going to be profit-takers around at this level and I am
hoping for a bit of a fall to buy back as this company looks like it's going
places. Nice trade, good profit. I also personally took another £4,000 in profit
on this thanks to a spreadbet long.
Final profit-taking is Galliford
sold for 70.12p. That's profits
there of £1,518. Despite
excellent results there's just no buying coming in and so with no progress being
made - for now.
I've gone bananas and bought some more
Highway Insurance today (HWY) -
another 10,000 shares at
58.5p. Same target and stop loss
as the other buy.
The only trouble is they may try and tree-shake (move the price down to
get sellers) but I will try and ride this out.
It goes ex dividend tomorrow for around 1.6p. So anyone in by close of
play today picks up the dividend.
Although of course the share should open down 1.5p tomorrow to take
account of this - but I don't think it'll be long before it's on the up again!
Phew!
Elsewhere not much happening.
Brammer continues the upwards momentum. Oils are down a bit today so
Dragon and
Burren are lower.
A major breakout for me from Croda
as it rushes up to nearly 430 - looks like 450 could be on the cards at which
point I will probably take profits. And
Rotork too is breaking out strongly - any move above 572 today will open
up 600.Monday 12th Sept
We had a flash flood.. which resulted in the basement of the cafe being
flooded. That might sound ok.. except the water also included plenty of
sewage... Urrrrhhhh!
So, with the aid of two large gentlemen who luckily would do anything for
money, all that nasty stuff had to be cleared out. It has to be one of the most
unpleasant things I've ever done.
So I guess sometimes even when you're out of the rat race, you have the
odd nasty experience! I'm over it now - we lost £300 of stock which wasn't too
bad.
Let's move on to something nicer... well, looks like we have the
apartment...well the bloke I'm buying it off said I'd got it - though the estate
agent hasn't phoned with the good news yet!
Elizabeth decided in the end she really did like it even though it's a bit
of a gamble as it's a completely different way of living.
I am really looking forward to trading with an amazing view of the Thames
and a lovely uncluttered and clear space... and no stairs!
Onto the markets. I've been fairly busy this morning with two buys
and one sell. Let's go to the buys. First is
Highway Insurance (HWY). I bought
7,500 shares at
59p. Stop loss
50p, target
75p.
Downside? Well, it's come up a bit so the odd profit-taker could move it
down short-term, however medium term I reckon I will be selling in the 70s! In
fact as I write it is a point lower than the price I paid at 58p.
Second buy, this time on the spreads is
Emerald Energy (EEN) for
£25 a point at
194p. (Four points higher than
the real 190 buying price - that is the spread firm's profit).
Tried to make money out of this one a few times but it's never really
flown the way I thought it would - it hasn't moved with the other oil stocks.
The thing with these oil stocks is one good statement and they can really
move upwards fast. Risky especially as the market makers play games with it but
worth a try again.
The sell is Fenner - sold
at 149.75 for a nice profit of
£815. The main reason for selling
is simply a lack of movement and I can't be patient with everything!
Elsewhere some good movers today -
Brammer has moved over 200p as I predicted - institutions have really
gone for this one and I can see why - plenty more upside in this regenerated
company.
Oils Burren and
Dragon are soaring higher today -
I think it's worth holding on to these despite obvious volatility.
An other cracking set of results from
Vanco which over the next 2-3
years could easily become a Ftse 250 company.
VP is beginning to fly -
again patience is really paying off with this one - bought at 138 and 190 - the
217 is looking attractive!
Templeton Emerging Markets
is really going for it again! And White
Young Green moves very nicely ahead of results.
CSR is holding well at a much
higher price and I am delighted the portfolio continues to soar.Friday 9th Sept
With the deadline approaching fast, Elizabeth decided she loved it too
just after we went to see it again with a friend of hers.. and Christopher who
gave it the nod.
I was expecting to rent for another year to take advantage of what I
believe are more house price falls to come.
However I love this apartment so much with its spectacular views of the
Thames (a conservation centre opposite so you see just the river and no
buildings)
It has lovely open space, two bathrooms (great for a happy marriage!),
three bedrooms and a large terrace.
There's also communal gardens and a communal swimming pool which I would
use to teach Christopher how to swim.
Anyway, so we put in an offer of £540,000. The estate agent called back
and said more please so we offered £545,000.
Now the seller has a problem because it's going to cost him £9k to get out
of the contract he'd made with another buyer - he is doing some sums and getting
back to us this afternoon so I will let you all know on Monday!!
The great thing about this apartment is the big open and uncluttered space
- I think it will make it easier for me to trade from! No clutter, no mess!
Onto the mailbag: Geoff writes:
Firstly thank you for an excellent site, your daily read provides much
incite and learning to beginners such as myself.
Hi Geoff - this one is quite easy to answer.
If a news story happens like this you need to watch how the market reacts.
Main thing is not to panic and stay calm because often there is a knee-jerk
reaction to news like this.
Which is what happened with Dragon Oil - the market dropped a few points
and then corrected - today it is going up - what is the market telling you?
Obviously it doesn't much matter.
My view is there is no point trying to analyse this - just trust the
market and go with it. The market is telling me the story is irrelevant and
should be ignored. So I have!
Onto the markets. I was very tempted to top up on Vanco shares
yesterday - someone somewhere was buying pretty much every share that came up in
the market. I thought well someone wants these VERY badly and at ANY price. Must
be something in the air.
Level 2 showed someone buying masses of Vanco CFD's - would someone do
that without knowing something or other? Results are due any day.
So I gave into temptation bought some more at 508p. However on this
occasion I shan't add them to the website share table and leave it with the
shares I have already bought. I'm fascinated to see whether this buyer was right
and whether there is some good news to come.
My oils are having a good day - already talked about
Dragon which I am sure will come
back up and speed towards 200p. Burren
also having a good day but needs to break 750 if it's to try and get near 800
again.
Croda and
Rotork are two big spreadbets
that are paying off with both go right through resistant points - excellent!
Costain has drooped a bit -
more likely bored investors coming out - this one surely cannot be valued at any
less than now and is likely to bounce from here.
Brammer is holding nicely at a
higher price and I suspect a break above 200p is not far off.Thursday 8th Sept
A lot of tears but I suppose the benefit is he was getting up and down
very gingerly for the rest of the morning!
I watch so much teletubbies I have the theme tune going round in my head.
Someone help me, please!
We have till 5.30pm tonight to make an offer on this riverside flat
because there's another offer in! I love it but Elizabeth is uncertain - she
always had visions of a traditional Victorian property.
I said I guess we could just try it for a year or two and see what
happens! But obviously even though I like it if she felt uncomfortable there
that would be terrible.
I love the huge open space and the spectacular river views. She doesn't
like the kitchen and apparently the skirting boards are a bit on the short side
(help me guys, what does that mean?)
So maybe I'll be buying and maybe I won't. The whole thing is probably a
gamble - it may pay off and may not - however I am sure it will all be
entertaining for you readers out there!
I'm thrilled so many of you are coming in for the offers from ADVFN - it
made it worth my while getting these deals for you (which I'm bloody well not
entitled to!). The level 2 deal is especially good - four months free is worth a
lot of money. Details somewhere below!!
Onto the mailbag: Graham writes:
' Robbie, A sparkling result from Galliford this morning! Could you answer my
question ' The dividend will be paid on Nov 4th to shareholders on the register
on October 7th.
P.S. Re. House moves, Aren't you concerned about Christopher and the river at
the bottom of your garden
Graham to answer the statement is badly worded from Galliford - it's the
ex dividend date that is the one that matters and that is always two days before
the record date so that should mean Galliford goes ex on October 5th.
That means as long as you hold on close of play on Oct 4th you get the
dividend. Hope that helps - in other words you could sell on October 5th and
still get the dividend BUT the shares would be marked down that day to mirror
the dividend payment.
As for Christopher and the river - no - the river is separated from us by
a large towpath so there is no danger of him getting out and into the river.
Onto the markets. Great results from
Galliford but as usual on results
day the profit-takers come in. This one looks lovely and still undervalued -
value will out and it is still a hold for me.
Croda looks to be breaking
out significantly - any break above 415 would look very bullish. As I pointed
out yesterday the breakout from the 125-130 range by
Delta looked significant and that
has proved the case with an excellent move today.
CSR is still storming ahead
- I reckoned on a price drop today as profit-takers would no doubt move in but
this does not appear the case and there are still buyers out there. I suggest a
600-700 price a few weeks ago and it looks like happening sooner than I thought.
Dragon is breathing fire
and fighting back - as I suggested, the low 150s looked like a very firm bottom
for the shares and they should gradually pull their way back up to the 180 level
again.
VP produced a confident AGM
statement which pushed the shares up 4p - not exactly a fast mover this one but
it does tend to go up over time albeit slowly but I like having some slow but
steady ones in the portfolio.
Rotork has been a real if
quiet star for me moving from my spread buy price of 441 up to 575 today! A bit
more steam left maybe before it's time to take profits.
Big buys still coming in at
Brammer - a tiny tree-shake by the market-makers isn't really flushing
out any sellers yet - but I guess it could dip a little before heading over the
200p mark.Tuesday 6th Sept
Onto the markets. Absolutely cracking results from
Brammer! The company looks
completely undervalued at this price and would be an excellent bid target now.
The shares must be worth at least 220p now - one broker has come out with 'buy'
advice on Brammer.
I really liked the look of the results so topped up right at the start of
the day and so bought 2,000
shares at 172.8p right at the
start of trading - target 220p,
stop 160p.
I don't need to worry about people following me into this one! - The small
investor for some reason doesn't seem to get involved - maybe it's something to
do with the fact it's not a dodgy company at 2p but a strong and excellent
profit-making one - something small investors seem to find just too boring!!
I'd be surprised if there wasn't institutional interest in this in the
next few days to lift the shares deservedly past the 200p mark.
Also good results from my spreadbet hold,
Derwent Valley - good set of
results should see Derwent build on today's rise.
Elsewhere oil shares are dipping today - so
Dragon and
Burren are both down - however I
don't feel this is the end of the bubble just yet and there may be further
buying opportunities in both at these lower levels.
Delta's trying hard to get
through that trying 130 level - boy you have to be patient with this one to get
the possible rewards!
Great rise for Vanco
yesterday afternoon - can it get through the 500p barrier now? Gosh, doesn't
seem long ago I was buying these at 181!
Wednesday 31st August
Unfortunately mice are her phobia and for now the living room is out of
bounds for her unless I'm there.
So, a row with Barclays Stockbrokers yesterday. They have ruled neither me
or anyone else are allowed to buy Dragon Oil in a PEP or ISA.
I had quite a bit of cash floating around a Barclays Isa so I wanted to
use the £15k I had spare to buy some yesterday morning.
I was told I couldn't buy any because Dragon was listed as an Irish
company. But they are fully listed on the London Exchange and I believe they are
eligible - not only do I think that - so do other stockbrokers who are happy to
deal in an ISA.
A Barclays boss said 'This is a Barclays ruling!' Great way to treat your
customers - how about 'we will look into it and check with the authorities
whether DGO is eligible.'
So I ended up having to buy them outside an ISA which means when they make
me loads of money I will have to end up paying 40% capitals gains tax instead of
getting the money tax free. Thanks, Barclays!
Onto the Mailbag - Mahesh
writes ' As I work full-time, I tend to put buy-stop orders in the
evenings (ie after 5.30pm) - basically outside UK market hours (I am talking
about UK stocks).
Yikes, Mahesh - trading outside hours would scare me and I don't think
these orders are a great idea - can you really not get on the net during the day
at all? What about lunchtime?
First of all if you've got one - you've got more - unless it's a one-off.
(The work next door theory is plausible). Next, never use poison - you never
know if you've killed one.
Well - hope that helps any of you with mice problems - we've already put
poison down so here's hoping!
I used the 15 second countdown window successfully to grab 171p just as
the price went to 173! Just as well as we've gone over 180p already.
I've been through the reasons a few times as to why I think having a big
holding in this is going to pay off in the same way it did with Burren. All I
can add is: 'Go Dragon Go!'
My patience with Sondex
looks about to pay off - a confident and strong trading statement this morning
has seen the shares make a good breakout which looks good to me to open up the
300p area - this is an easy hold, nearly tempted to buy more.
A trading statement from Costain
shows great figures with profits nicely up. Not done much for the share price
but Costain is a great solid share to have as part of an ISA portfolio - when
the market tumbles the Costain price won't!
Isotron is gaining well
today as is CSR which is my one
and only tech stock that has made me decent money!
Vanco continues to soar away too.
Lovely day! Tuesday 30th August
As we only have a 2 seat sports BMW, Eliz and baby went by car and I
cycled and enjoyed every minute of it listening to loud dance music all the way!
Christopher really enjoyed himself when we got there - crawling all over
the grass and trying to eat as much of it as possible!
It was all action at home this morning. I heard a shriek from downstairs -
Elizabeth had discovered a mouse in the living room!
As her and mice are not exactly the best of pals she ran upstairs with
Christopher leaving me and my useless cat to deal with it. (The cat has done
bugger all for 16 years, you'd think the least she could do would be to catch
one lousy mouse).
So I called the pest people who came round and said building renovations
next door had disturbed a nest - he put poison down, and charged me £140! Nice
business eh? So now we hope that'll be the end of it. Or maybe someone was
telling me to buy Mice Group?
Onto the mailbag. Ross writes:
'Have you thought of what would happen to the stock market if the H5N1 bird flu
hit the UK ?
Well Ross, I feel the bird flu thing is a media scare story to fill up the
acres of blank paper they have to fill during the silly season.
Journalists write all kinds of bollocks to scare people so they sell more
papers. Personally I feel the doomsday scenario is nonsense and have no
intention of selling my shares because of something like this. So that's an easy
one. And if if happens I won't care much about shares as I'll be six foot under.
Fisher will almost certainly rise in time as will T Clarke - both should
certainly not be valued at much less than current prices. Not sure why the dip
in TC this morning - it went as far down as 240 but came back sharpish.
The top-up is in Dragon Oil
- bought 3,000 shares (in two
lots) an an average of 163p.
Target 210, stop
140. (Price is a little lower
now).
There is little doubt that for right now smaller oil exploration companies
are the place to be for fast rises.
Now, it could well be that this is all just a bubble like the tech one -
but that doesn't really matter. I feel it's important to be in Burren Energy and
Dragon Oil. I've made an awful lot of money on Burren and I have plenty so they
are a hold. .
As you know I bought Dragon at 109 very recently and many investors would
say I was crazy to top up at a much higher price. But I did the same with Burren.
I bought at 241 and then topped up at 466 - price now? 727!
I feel Dragon is slowly going to head for the 200p mark with of course
volatility and ups and downs along the way.
Last week's buy Vanco is
going very well - at this rate it should top 500p pretty sharpish and well
deserved too. Obviously nothing goes up in a straight line but it's trying very
hard to achieve it!
I have quite a few shares pushing hard to get through some resistance
points. These include Rotork,
trying hard today to leave 550 behind,
Vislink going up trying to break 40p,
Galliford Try (ing) to crack 70,
Isotron pushing 625 and
Gyrus (320). So all in all a
pretty good start to the bank holiday week even if a little on the quiet side!Friday 26th August
Time for rest and relaxation. Forget about the markets! But I am around so
will be answering your e-mails!
I've pretty much shut down early - we're off this afternoon to town to do
some shopping and then we're going to a posh restaurant called The Wolseley.
And lucky for me I have a windfall to spend.
I may have mentioned this before but in 1996 I bought £3k of a small
company called Midland and Scottish Resources. on what was then the equivalent
of the Aim index.
The company was delisted so I held what I thought was a worthless share
certificate. Blow me down if last year I got a cheque for £4k - something to
do with selling their oil rig and so giving shareholders some of the money.
Off for a picnic with some friends on Monday and on Sunday I will probably
be doing lots of sleeping! Mind you I have my VAT to do and my tax so I guess
I will have to work at some point.
Let's look at the mailbag: Reader John
writes 'Hi Robbie. Your site is the best, keep up the good work ! Noticed
that you have bought a massage chair and you are obviously enjoying the
benefits, coincidentally as a long time back, leg, and shoulder sufferer (
too much squash when I was younger ) I too have been contemplating buying one.
Well, John, seems like a good markup! Anyone interested? Not sure I am
that bothered because quite simply exporting and all that seems like hard work
to me! Still, you never know, the chairs are great!
Mark writes: Just a quick
question about shares that have hit your target. When you buy a share
with a particular target price in mind and then that price is reached, in the
case of Dragon Oil today, what's your thought process on holding or taking
profits.
If you remember last time I bought at 370 and sold at 438 because I felt
it would come back to 420 - this did not happen and the break over 450 has made
me a keen buyer again.
So I bought 2,000 shares at
453p. target
520, stop
420. (I got the last of the 435-
it moved to 452-458). I'm not going to say much more because I've gone on
endlessly in the past about it - but the re-rating of the shares looks like it's
going to continue. I've met the management and this should carry on going
places.
Some excellent strong movers today in my portfolio which simply continues
to soar daily. A very strong breakout by
Galliford Try today - the break over 70 looks very convincing and opens
up 80p in time.
Also Dragon Oil looks on
the verge of a big squeeze higher up to my new target area of 200/210. Great
profits building up and I wonder whether I'll end up doubling my money on this
one.
Hunting after a quiet spell
is having a good day - Costain is
moving again and Croda looks good
as it breaks above 400 again. Isotron
holds well at higher levels. Brammer,
Vislink and
White
Young Green all heading higher as
is Sondex.
Investors Chronicle today featured
VP and Carrs Milling in a
feature about value stocks that will make you rich... slowly!!Thursday 25th August
Has it affected my business? Nope! What interests me is that the company
is so desperate top open new stores that they are opening any old place. The
premises they've bought is in a desperate spot.
I've hardly seen anyone in there yet and if there is anyone it's someone
just having one coffee. I reckon this particular branch will lose money.
And I wonder whether this will be the same story if they try to expand.
What is now a success story could become something different.
I have this down a possible short - not right now as Sept 14th results
could still look good.. but later this year or early next.. could be
interesting...
Let's nip to the postbag, why the hell not.. oh because I feel too lazy to
cut and paste in the letter and then answer it...
Right, just had a double espresso so let's do it while I have the energy..
So here's Mahesh (who cleverly
starts off with some flattery, always works!)
'Thanks for the excellent information you post on your website. Reading
yesterday's website, you have mentioned institutions have been buying shares in
Isotron.
' I have always wanted to know how you can find out whether a particular
company has institutional interest and how do you find this out.
'Up to now I have not been able to find out the answer to this. Please let
me know where to find this information. I look forward to your answer.
OK, Mahesh, well I simply use ADVFN. So.. just click for a quote on
Isotron (Click 'quote' and then put ISO in the box)
Now scroll down a bit and you'll see 'recent news' The first three
'stories' are headlined 'holdings in companies'. Click on those and these are
the institutional buys.
Click on the first one and you'll see Standard Life bought 15,698 shares
to increase their holding in Isotron to 6%. (That's nearly £100,000 worth).
On level 2 ADVFN I can also click and see who the major institutional
shareholders are and how much they hold. Big buys of shares by institutions have
to be reported and that is how you can find them.
Hope this helps. When I see big institutional buyers it gives me great
confidence in buying a share.
Well, I had to laugh last night! I made a profit on a football bet when I
should have made a loss!
Having seen Chelsea always do just enough to win and usually score fairly
late I thought I would buy the time of the first Chelsea goal at 39. However I
made a 'mistake' and sold! Just as well - they scored at 23 minutes making me
£120!
It got me thinking - if the majority of people lose at sport spread
betting - why not decide on a bet - then do the exact opposite!!!!
I decided to take profits of £510
in my short of Provident Financial
at 633p. Shorts are difficult to
profit from right now so I simply thought I'd take the profit while it was
there. So a nice trade!
Dragon Oil is doing the
business - after a predictable retrace, this one looks set for a run up to the
200p area provided 140 holds.
Vislink has really sparked
into life in the run-up to results. Market-makers are starting to buy stock
which is encouraging - a break through 40p would look bullish and it's held 37
very well at every retrace. Another good sign.
Delta has been trading in a
tight 3 point range and been a bit irritating! A breakout over 130 needed!
Isotron has been moving
very nicely since I rebought and going up through highs - looks very promising.
Galliford looks on the edge
of a decent breakout. CSR
continues to motor up well - good hold.
Fisher looks promising at
new highs and White Young Green
is doing the business now it's holding over 300p.
Lots and lots of results due in September for shares in the portfolio
which should make it an interesting month!Wendesday 24th August
Which is good news.. except we are going to carry on worrying, you can't
help it as a parent can you?
Anyway, we went for a coffee on the way home and went to a small coffee
chain. Oh boy are they in trouble.
No-one in there yet the service was still rubbish. Got presented with
rubbish coffee and a stale croissant. I banged it on the table and not a crumb
came off. Obviously trying to pass off yesterday's as today's.
You see customers NOTICE these things! And they stop spending money at your
place!
I won't name the bar as of course I could be sued but I also reckon the
staff were stealing from the till.
Who's getting it right in my opinion. Well, I hate to say it but Starbucks
is pretty good and though sometimes it's hard to get what you want you normally
can.
Who's getting it wrong? Coffee Republic. Not that I'm revengeful because I
lost money on buying their shares in 2001! A few bagels ain't going to make up
for the mistakes made there.
Of course the best place is mine! But then I'm not listed on the market so
you can't buy the shares. They would be a definite buy right now!
A lot of my lot are motoring up today.
Rotork is really going for it now
- this fabulous company is now more than 100 points higher than when I bought it
and there is a lot more to go by the look of the action today.
Dragon Oil is pausing for
breath after its performance yesterday and not surprising to see some profits
taken at the end of the day. But there are more rewards here for the patient,
which luckily, I am!
Fisher and Son is climbing
today after some good positive press after yesterday's results - most analysts
reckon there is more to come (again for the patient!)
White Young Green is
looking powerful right now and I was tempted to buy some more today though I
didn't quite press the buy button, mainly because I already own quite a lot of
shares.
Vislink a bit disappointing
today - it's having trouble with the 40p area - but plenty of time for a
reversal - results due soon should make things clearer.
Burren continues to
consolidate and move higher after its recent sell off - should start to see the
price motoring again quite soon.
After a quiet spell CSR is
starting to go well and there could be another 100 points in it.
Isotron looks hot still - a few
institutional investor buys now could see it rocket. Past Commentaries
Wednesday 20th July 2005 to Tuesday 23rd August 2005
Friday 20th May 2005 to Monday 18th July 2005
Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005
Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December
Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004
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