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Well would you believe it? After my rant
yesterday about parking I got a bloody parking ticket.. because my parking
permit had dropped off the windscreen!
Dave writes: I've been following your ramblings since the Sunday Times days and before that read, with increasing sympathy, John Urbanek's Diary of a Day Trader.
Poor bloke, they say timing is
everything and he tried his hand at just about the wrong time. I can talk, I
bought a technology ISA fund in March 2001 and watched £3000 become £400 in
fairly short order.
So I resolved to manage my own investments, albeit by far the largest
proportion is sitting safely in cash earning a reasonable risk and largely tax
free return (the wife is very tax efficient!).
I read a number of the books you recommended and given my past experience was attracted by the 'somebody else's money' description of how fund managers operate at the most basic level.
So with a fair wind and a bit of luck I
could probably do better. And how. Over three years, increasing returns, a
substantial 5 figure sum in mine and the wife's self select ISAs and a 'time
weighted' return last year of 42.8%.
So I'm good at it right? Wrong! The truth is I've developed a very lazy
investing style, you could call it the parasite school of investment management.
Simply put, if I read enough positive stuff about a share there's a fair chance
it will come off and it avoids all that nasty analysis and research. But it
works right? Wrong! I got lucky, very lucky.
One of a number of outfits were up for
some sort of Financial Times small company management award. So I bought a slug
of shares at 182, more at 231, again at 330, 450 and 466. I even tried a bit of
short term trading, selling at 522 and buying back at 487 (never again - it's
bad for the nerves!).
If you haven't guessed yet it was Burren. My one claim to fame is getting
into a winner before you! But the point is, if I did the sums again with Burren
stripped out I guess my performance would look pretty lame. Which brings me back
to the book. I can only endorse what many have said about it's style and content
so I won't do the sycophantic stuff here.
The point is it has reinforced the
nagging at the back of my brain which was telling me that so far it's been more
luck than judgement and If I am serious about investing in shares I must work at
least a bit harder at it and do more for myself in some sort of organised
fashion. So thanks for that.
Great mail Dave - it's good to admit where you could be going wrong even if you
are making money..
Johnny writes: I have been a keen
reader of your web site for almost 2 years and respect your opinions and have
the same views as you. One thing that caught my attention was you saying about
George Galloway that he's having a go at young people for only about sex and
drink and not concerned with anything else.
You said so what let them enjoy their
youth. Today you are commenting about the nasty feeling coming from the
government and councils. Which I actually agree with. However, don't you agree
that politicians only get away with this because young people are not voicing
their views.
By the way I am only 27 and like enjoying myself and i do understand that
the government hardly listens to anyone. By the way I do agree Barrymore and
Galloway are being wan**rs about the whole thing and yes I agree people like
Galloway who haven't got a clue about real life and how to talk to young people
are running this country.
Thanks Johnny. I think the British of all ages don't bother making their
voices heard and we let the government get away with anything they want to
Can you imagine New Yorkers agreeing to a 'congestion charge'! I don't
think so!!! Galloway and Barrymore are losers stuck in the past and should leave
the lovely girls alone!!!
So, a bad day for the FTSE today but my
portfolio is managing to show more gains, now that can't be bad! I have that
tired Friday feeling so don't fancy buying anything today.
What a repulsive day! Rainy windy and just
horrible. Thank goodness I don't have to go near an office anymore, can't think
of anything worse than if I'd had to get up this morning and travel to work! Onto the markets. Many investors are
scared of buying shares that have already gone up a lot but I don't mind jumping
on a winner a bit late on.
Ah, what a lovely break that was. We went to
a great hotel, the Conrad in Chelsea - it's a bit of a well-kept secret, a
really good hotel overlooking Chelsea harbour nicely away from the noise of
London but just round the corner. Onto the mailbag:
Mike writes: 'What am writing
about is the puzzle I find using ShareGain prices- Prices before and after I
think it is called the Auction, after the market is closed, after which one can
either find oneself either richer or poorer. Its not mentioned in the the mighty
Tome by Robbie Burns so have you any knowledge in this area. I look at mine, grown up at last and
realise that the biological imperative has bugger all return over the long term.
I even gave mine £100K to help buy a house. Visit at Xmas? Nope. Yes they are
charming when tiny, enjoy, it doesn't last. Onto the markets. Not surprisingly the
markets are weak this week - plenty of profits build up and people are again not
surprisingly taking them. Just hold on unless the market becomes a
bear one and there is no sign of that for the moment, all the long-term uptrends
are well in place.
Apologies in advance but there'll be no
update on Monday.. next on Tuesday. This is because the mother in law is coming
down and me and Elizabeth are going to take advantage and we're off to an
extremely nice local hotel on Sunday and Monday where we are going to, er, take
it easy! Onto the markets. Well, what a fabulous
week it's been for the portfolio with huge rises from
Wolfson,
CSR,
Burren,
Harvey Nash,
Dragon Oil and
Rotork.
Well, at last two things to watch on the
TV tonight that should be entertaining. Celebrity Big Brother is always
entertaining. Nothing like seeing the celebs battle
hard to appeal to viewers when all they do is come over as complete pain in the
arses. I panicked when the directors of CSR
were selling and sold my shares. Also the same day an article appeared on
ADVFN's bb from the Telegraph stating this company was a sell. I hit the sell button BUT it wasnt until
a few days later I found out that article was dated 3 November a day after the
results. The clue usually is when you see someone
posting a lot, cutting and pasting in reports and being arrogant. What you
probably don't realise is the person behind the posts is more than likely a
college student who hasn't got two pennies to rub together but fancies himself
as a hotshot! They are simply desperate for attention/want to be respected. Well after the excitement of the last
few days the market's gone quiet today but that's to be expected. In fact I'm
rather pleased the portfolio is just quiet today - I was expecting some falls
via profit taking but that hasn't happened.
Well, what a cracking start to 2006 in every
way! How happy am I? Very! A beautiful son, wife and cat.. shares going sky high
and there's always good old tea and toast. What more could you want? The other I pointed out to that if at a
rights-issue, a director cannot raise the money to buy the shares at a
discounted value (current price was £2.70, rights price £2.30) then something
was wrong as the amount to be invested was £500,000. So he sold, what did I do
hold all the way down to suspension. Then did I set a alert, if it came back
from suspension so I could sell, you guessed. It can back at £1.20 and I found
out later that day and sold at 88p. I also think patentline was a company you
held and I sent you an e-mail outlining my concerns, did I sell no price then
was about 1.20 now it's 25p ? I was trying to think of a word to sum
up the markets and the portfolio today and only one does the trick: As I write it just broke through 156
which is great because there were a lot of market-makers sitting at that level.
I think it will move quite fast at least to the 170 level. The really great
thing is I believe it's as safe as houses and there is hardly any downside. It
really is a one way bet! My buys at 241 and 466 are looking
pretty good. Quadrupled on one buy and doubled on the other, not bad going! I
also have a large spreadbet which as you can imagine as produced big returns.
I needed that, didn't you? Had a
fantastic break - hardly switched the TV on at all as we all spent most of the
time playing games, especially pictionary which is great fun. Onto the markets - well my goodness what
an amazing start to the year with everything in the portfolio rocketing up
today. Before I get onto that Carrs,
Gyrus,
Rotork and
VP are all joining in the fun too
- and amazingly even Costain is
up! I just can't think of a better start to a year than today (which sods laws
will state there will be a crash tomorrow). My spread bet account on its own
seems to have gone up by more than £6,000! I hope you are all having a good time
on the markets too! Do you feel in need of a rest? I know I
do! Can't wait.... a few family members visiting so hopefully for one or two
days they'll do the Christopher 5.30am shift. It came up when we were looking for good
ones at the Birmingham seminar and at the London seminar I nearly bought it but
it just got piped at the post in the vote by delegates by Mouchel. I think I
would have bought it at 282 then! Carphone
Warehouse is trying to get through 260 again - would not be surprised to
see this double in 2006. Gyrus is
on the way up as is Dignity. Much
else unchanged. So looks like it's going to be a great end to a great year!
The Xmas tree has arrived and
Christopher is fascinated. Lucky though he can't stand up for long otherwise I'm
sure he'd take great delight in bringing the whole thing down! I recently shorted a company on bad
results ( loss announced ) but since then its shares have gone up even though
traded volumes are low with most days showing more sells than buys. Do the MM's
hope that some fool will buy them at the higher levels only to sell them back
cheaper when the price falls? Wow - another fantastic day - the
markets are normally very good around this time of year - check out my ADVFN
column,
click here
for direct access for more on this.
Oh dear! So far I've written, er, two
Xmas cards! I just find it harder to do every year.. and I wonder why I don't
get any....Still presents are just about all bought. Lots of family about to
visit. When I eventually deposited the money
and left ...she was outside having a FAG BREAK!!! Imagine if I stopped my
Digital Web Printing Press for a Fag Break, I'd be out on my ass!' Result? Me in the middle with no account
and no-one could tell me where my money (several thousand at that point) was.
Neither banks would accept responsibility and did sod all to help, Nat West cancelled mine and Barclays
wouldn't issue, no access to my money as my account was no more. To my acute
embarrassment, two cheques from my old account bounced because it no longer
existed and all the people who I had standing orders and direct debits with
didn't get any money and wrote to me saying I was in debt to them. To compound matters at the same time I
was also changing my account from my maiden name so London Nat West, as part of
the ID process, asked me to post my marriage certificate with the words 'Don't
be silly madam of course we won't lose it' ringing in my ears, promptly losing
every scrap of paper I sent them. I thankfully had decided not to post my
marriage certificate as, although I could ill afford the time from my job hence
I almost posted it, for 100% security that it wouldn't be lost, chose to drive
the 50 mile round trip to my nearest Nat West branch. Now you tell me why some sub sub
assistant couldn't have pursued the route he did to find my money... because
they can't be arsed to do any work or take any responsibility, or ask someone
more senior to help. The days of customer service are numbered in these big
financial institutions. If only just one of the major banks
would take it upon themselves to make customer care their top priority (as I do
in my job), and equally not divert us to some pigeon English speaking person
with an echo in Outer Mongolia, they would probably sweep the board. Hum bloody
Bug
Eh oh! Christopher managed to destroy a
whole shelf full of crockery this morning. Cups, saucers, bowls... This series must have been filmed a few
months ago. Surely a bit at the end filling us in on how they are all getting on
wouldn't be that difficult? It
means I've got lovely capital growth and as in real life I hold 2,700 shares
I'll be getting a dividend of nearly £300. Lovely! Great share still undervalued
and a push up to 600p should be next. Did you see Dragon's
Den last night? What an entertaining show! But I do feel sorry for the would be
entrepreneurs with the really good ideas as the dragons greedily want at least
half of their companies. I was wondering what your thought
process was. I have found noise effects me more when I put too big a stake in.
It panics me and I sometimes sell too early before the real jump.'
Apologies to all for
the very late update of the site yesterday.. as they say this was due to
technical problems! However all should be OK now. I think she discovered
under the stairs today where wisely she feels she can sleep for a few hours as
her venerable age deserves. I
had a look and shook my head. Either the company is tremendously undervalued or
there is something wrong somewhere and it's about to issue terrible news. Well,
I couldn't see anything and decided to go for a spreadbet long for
£50 a point at
107p. (2 points more than the
spread in the market but this is the spread firm's profit). Target
125, stop
100.
Christopher now seems to be deciding to wake up at 3.30am! Poor thing, we
think it's his teeth coming through. Only problem is getting back to sleep
afterwards! I'm missing two or three hours a night.. but he's worth every
minute..
It's funny living in London - we
never see any real weather. A friend of mine who lives in the country says
they've had really deep heavy snow and the kids can't even get to school. The
snow's up to their knees. I'm sure it's all lovely but I think I'm just a City
guy!
Hurrah!!!!! I finally feel better and
so does Christopher! The boys of the house have had a horrible week with a
rampant stomach bug. But now it's gone. Rubbish
karoake singing show-offs (X-Factor) and to finish off there's Chris Evans who
has turned himself into a grotesque real-life Alan Partridge. The dreaded lurgy is still with me! I
used to really like tea and toast but after three days of not being able to keep
anything else down, it's starting to lose its appeal. I'm just
grateful I'm suffering this week and it's not today I'm hosting the seminar. Can
you imagine? 'Good morning everyone, and welcome to the seminar and..
blurrrrrrggghhh!' I saw the share had been hammered but
it was recovering and a quick look made me believe the market makers had
overshot the share on the downside, at least short-term. I didn't get anywhere
near the bottom price. There seems to be constant seller in
Costain holding down the price. And for MTL there just isn't much interest. I
hope value will out with both. I'm just about back in the land of
the living though still only managing to eat toast and soup. So what happened
since the last update? The market has been extremely kind
since my last update on Monday! Plenty of very big risers for the portfolio
which is splendid. Sorry but there's no update today - I got hit by a terrible virus last night and I've been very sick. I can't keep anything down and just staying in bed. I hope to be back with a full update tomorrow - I have plenty to talk about. It was Christopher's first birthday
on Saturday! Happy Birthday son! We are so happy with him. Longer-term readers
may remember the terrible time we went through when our first baby died at 28
weeks (would have been a girl). I'm sure
there's nothing much wrong and he'll bounce back in the next couple of days. But
he's just not himself at the moment - we probably worry about nothing but I'm
sure all new parents do. Onto the markets. Well, it was worth
the gamble buying Carrs Milling
on Friday ahead of results today because the results were sparkling! I see it happening so many times and
you can just see the MM's shaking out panicking holders - they got a nice lot of
stock at 205, happy with that they simply put the price back up... probably a
big buyer around and the MM's wanted the shares. Treeshakes, how to spot them
and not panic is one subject I'll be covering in depth at the seminars. Ow! Arrrrghhhh! Eeeeekkkkkkk! In the
dentist chair for two hours yesterday having the root canal done. Ominously she
gave me two nurofen as I left and advised me to take more. Even worse she said
'if it got really bad tomorrow I'll get you some antibiotics!' Onto the markets...What a bloody
fantastic day! The portfolio is absolutely soaring today with some huge risers.
More in a moment. There's one risky buy I made for my high-risk SIPP which those
on my e-mail list will find out about later.
Another down market today though again I'm not fairing too badly at all.
Difficult to know at this stage whether it's the start of another downleg or
whether there's another bounce coming. All I would say is it's worth getting rid
of anything exceptionally risky from portfolios I think for the time being.
Sorry, folks but there won't be an
update or e-mail tomorrow (Thursday). This is because the dentist will be poking
pins in my gums for 2 hours right in the middle of the day. The good news is I'm
back on Friday!
Another down market today though again I'm not fairing too badly at all.
Difficult to know at this stage whether it's the start of another downleg or
whether there's another bounce coming. All I would say is it's worth getting rid
of anything exceptionally risky from portfolios I think for the time being.
My soon
to be one-year-old is going to be an engineer I think. Unknown to us he's spent
a few days dismantling the table in the living room. He's unwound all the nuts
and been hiding them. And he might be small but boy is he speedy - he's known as
'speedy Gonzalez' down at the playgroup.
Onto the markets. One new buy today - that's in a company called
Creston (CRE). I bought
3,000 early this morning at
203p and also a few for the Mrs'
Isa. Target 245p, stop
190p.
I expect that to peter out before it gets to 300. In fact I don't believe
it'll get past 300 so I reckon this is a short without too much risk. (Look out
for a bid tomorrow!). I've slapped myself hard on the wrist
for letting the stop run to 113 instead of 120 for the website. I may even have
sold at a bottom and if I have it's simply my own fault. It also shows it doesn't matter how
long you've been trading for it's still easy to make mistakes and be
undisciplined. I could have sold higher but went out swimming and missed it
dipping (as it were).
What a great weekend that was ! We
headed into town early on Saturday and ate, drank and shopped. I bought a new
camcorder (Christopher buggered up the last one after trying to eat it). Charles
is great fun - he made as much money as anyone could possibly want by selling
People's Phone in 1996, a company he built up from scratch himself. A great
breakfast and a bit more shopping and then back home to see our dear boy being
looked after by the MIL. We were pleased to see each other - so sod Las Vegas!
That's quite enough about my personal life, this is supposed to be a flipping
shares website for goodness sake. Onto the markets. An excellent day
for the portfolio. Oils are motoring so great rises for
Burren and
Tullow. Glad I'm an investor and
not a trader of these two!
Went to the dentist yesterday
afternoon - what are the two words you don't want to hear? Yup - root and canal.
Oh well got to get on with it so booked up to start work on a wretched crown
problem tooth next week. Great - you pay them loads of money and get pain - and
in the end of it, you don't even get anything! Mind
you, maybe no-one wants to buy it but the agent seems to reckon we'll get plenty
of offers.. we'll see! I'll be sad as it was my little baby but as they say,
parting is sweet sorrow! Onto the markets. I couldn't resist
it yesterday after I updated and bought some more
CSR. Call me crazy (you're crazy
- ed) but even at these higher levels it still looks like a buy up to 900. So I
picked up another 800 shares at
786.6 target
950, stop
740. I'm up nearly £2,500 on them so far
for the website and £7,500 personally. If you remember that's by mistake as I
took out a £50 upbet instead of £15 that I'd meant. Bloody good mistake that
one.
It's very handy having the
mother-in-law here and it's great for Elizabeth to get some time off getting up
at 6am every morning when Christopher starts demanding attention! Onto the markets. Star of the day is
yesterday's buy CSR which has
stormed higher - at one point it broke 800 and fell back again but it's bound to
try again, once through 880 beckons. I think for website purposes we shall
keep the current buy and just top up with the
25,000 I bought this morning at
24.68p (which so far has proved
the bottom on the day)
After my diatribe yesterday on how
the country should be run let me return to family matters today. (Although two
of you said you'd vote for me!) The markets seem to me to be right at
the point of either sinking fast or going up fast. Don't know which way, let's
hope it's up - I think it's wise to stay wary and get ready to do some selling
at least short-term if need be. A market tumble would of course
affect them and if a tumble happened I would probably sell this package but keep
the rest. Today's break up to 750 will be significant if it can hold above there
this week. Worth taking the chance!
Davis Vs
Cameron? Who cares? Today's politicians are too scared to come up with any
decent or slightly radical ideas. Tories? Labour? All the bloody same now aren't
they - style over substance. Scrap
BBC licence fee and car tax and include in normal tax. Phase in more
commercialism for the BBC including Radio 1 and 2 to take ads. BBC1 programs to
be sponsored. Parking
tickets only when needed. Towing away only after attempt to contact driver.
Scrap all 'congestion charges'. Abolish stamp duty on shares. Encourage
campaigns for us to get to know our neighbours and look after each other. Get a
sense of community back. Big effort to sort out youngsters stealing to fund drug
habit. Look at
alternatives to jail for those who could be sorted out. Get to the root of
problems and try and stop them before they start rather than stamping down
afterwards. Encourage
enterprise and ideas deviating from the norm. Negotiate tax rates for the huge
earners to bring them back to the UK from their tax havens. They provide jobs,
work and ideas. Abolish capital gains tax up to £100,000. Onto the markets, 3 trades today.
First a buy of Carphone Warehouse (CPW)
3,000 shares bought at
214.6p - target
230p, stop
202p. I don't see why it shouldn't happen
and on this basis the shares have a way to go. Great results the other day. A
must for any portfolio I reckon. This was a beautiful trade - shares
bought at 193 with the plan to take profits at 220 which is just what happened!
I sold at 218.75p to take profits
for the website of a decent £996
(and obviously a lot more for me personally).
I'm afraid I have a new addiction and
this time to Smartie Bars. (This follows on from my terrible addiction to mini
green Aero bars.) Customers
seem to prefer Kit Kats and Dairy Milk - they have no idea what they're missing
- have the courage to try something new for goodness sake! In your
book you have said its best not to go over the NMS - so how and why did you go
over the NMS and specially in a small company ?' The way
to find out is either via level 2 and if you don't have that do dummy orders
online and see how many shares you could actually buy direct from the mm's. AEX
is my riskiest trade ( I usually have one or two) and it's paid off so far. The markets: Pretty quiet start to
the week unlike the extremely explosive and very nice last week! A few nice
quiet risers - Telecom Plus is
the biggest riser today and continues to power ahead - 180 is the next barrier
while 200 is unlikely to be conquered until we get a statement. My buy at 134 is
looking better and better!
At last all the clocks in the house are
showing the right time! No longer will every time I wake up decide what the real
time is. Right onto the markets. The FTSE may
be down but my portfolio is having a party! I've been seduced by a share today
called Bodycote (BOY).
Right, I am going to say the unsayable. I hate
Halloween - everything about it irritates me and the sooner it's banned the
better! So there - that's what I think and it's off my chest!
Boo, sucks and knickers to Halloween! They wouldn't dare print the above in a
national paper - but I bet on the quiet a lot of adults will agree...
Onto the markets. Wow! What a day!
Everything is soaring - it's a day to hold on to everything rather than buy I
feel. I flogged off my spreadbet in
Dignity at 399 Friday to
take a profit of 570 because of the slip under the 400 mark. I'll be back into
this wonderful share though and I'm rather hoping for a dip to buy a whole load
of new shares.
Christopher is nearly standing on his
own now! He can stand alone for a few seconds and I guess it won't be long
before he's running round the place. He's such a lovely boy and we can't get
enough of him! Onto the markets: An excellent day
with some big rises for many of the shares in the portfolio. So glad I kept my
nerve with the oils during the recent turbulence especially
Burren which is getting close to
800p again. My re-purchase of Dragon
looks very well-timed now and my three positions are in excellent profit. This resulted in an immediate drop in
the price for no other reason - and of course this then led to inevitable
selling and a ridiculous spread of 20 points! This share has got to be undervalued
at these levels and I hold, hoping the third MM will come back with a quote
which will lift the price back. The fall is simply not justified and
I expect a big bounce back. I suspect holders who've been panicked out will be
back. I'll be buying more if it dips much lower.
Apologies for the ongoing site updating
problems. It's due to webmaster Dale's computer which unfortunately contracted a
nasty virus and had to be put down. A sparkling new replacement is due to be put
in place. WM note: So some malicious twat
infected my PC with virus and has wiped it out. £1000 worth of excellent system
down the drain. Aside from the obvious financial damage, about 500 irreplaceable
photographs were wiped. My advice to all readers is this :
UPDATE YOUR ANTI VIRUS, ANTI HACKER,
ANTI SPAM AND ANTI ANYTHING ELSE YOU CAN LAY YOUR HANDS ON AND KEEP DOING IT.
IT IS WORTH CONSIDERING BUYING AN
EXTERNAL HARD DRIVE SO YOU CAN BACK UP YOUR ENTIRE PC AND THEN KEEP COPY ON CDR
AWAY FROM ANY POTENTIAL DAMAGE. Please accept my apologies for any
inconvenience caused by lack of updates. Back to Robbie now. It came back again and I was really
pleased that I sold. Then it dropped again, (below my stop loss), and you sold.
On Thursday it came up again quite a few points and I got the good feelings
again! When I checked an hour later it was dropping and I got a bad dose of the
frighteners and sold and lost very little. Today it's up and you bought in
again. Here's my report for Monday and my new buys
were: My stance remains on the cautious side. However I have bought back into
two of my favourites.
Big apologies to website readers for
not getting Thursday's update. This was because webmaster Dale uses NTL which
went down and never came back up! Anyway at least those of you on the e-mail
list got yesterday's update. Another
ploy has been to get in to oversold stocks and watch for the bounce and take
profits this was a good play for JJB and Telecom Plus 7% in two days in each
stock is not bad in such torrid times. Onto the markets. Well, I did expect
a bounce back today though not such a good one. My belief now is the market has
changed from a steady up climb to a more likely wavy volatility. It's
gone up to over 19p as I write this. It has its risks but is attracting a lot of
interest which could see it squeezing higher. Today, Friday, I picked up even more
Aminex - big players appear to be
getting in here and want in at any price often paying over the odds. Something
is happening here and I want to be part of it. I don't know what's brewing but
it looks good!
I think the teletubbies rather well
sum up this morning's action: 'eh oh' - pretty much every stock on the market
has been hit. Remember I am a distributor for the
company so beware I do like and am emotionally involved! However I think at this
point it's worth taking a chance. I had a response from a lady called
Anna Blundell-Williams, assuring me there had been no changes to the company's
fundamentals, and giving an understandable reason for the fall, i.e. a US-based
fund manager putting a lot of stock on the market in an irresponsible manner..
Me, Elizabeth and Christopher went to
Heathrow this morning - no not another holiday! We wanted to check out the room
and facilities at the Heathrow hotel where we're holding one of Naked Trader
seminars in December. For a
few years now we have been considering buying a home with a business. Probably
something like a house with self-catering accommodation. The
question is really about how to borrow for this kind of venture, as to afford
anything we have seen we would need to use the income from the properties as a
consideration in the mortgage. It's not
just your shares they're hitting but some of mine as well. Northgate Information
Solutions at 75p. Are they insane! Hmmmm. I don't think so. Is this a gigantic
market wide tree shake I wonder? Lets
slaughter the hell out of Partygaming and all those other over hyped gaming
stocks, watch all those amateur investors who buy shares on newspaper reports
come pouring out nursing big losses and watch them look desperately for the one
area that might pull, those losses back. Oil and
technology! Great here they come, buying away at high prices now lets hammer
those oil and tech stocks, mainly the good ones that we want shares in. Why do
we want shares in them? Because the big fund managers are going to be buying
like heck in the next few weeks because they want to get their performances up
for those tasty big Xmas bonuses. So there they go again, all selling
like crazy, even the ones who thought they were buying at reasonable prices (and
they were). It's like a stock market version of independence day. Am I right? What do
you think? I hope I am as I'm topping up like heck this week. Sondex at 227? On
their results! I'm getting the trolley and I'm going on a supermarket sweep!
Once the partygamers have cleared off back home (at a worse price than they sold
of course) I'm in like Flynn! Onto the markets and it's quiet
though most of mine are moving up a bit. The oils are still recovering from last
week's pounding. Burren
is trying to get back over 800 which I hope will be achieved this week.
Tullow is moving a bit more
slowly but is looking stronger. Looks
like it's worked but for me it's all good news and I expect to see the stock
climb sharply before Xmas. Robbie Burns has been trading successfully for over 7 years, having spent 1996 to 2001 as finance and general editor for Sky TV's text services. Robbie has started this commentary page on Sky and Channel 5 text in 2000 and ran it until summer 2002, during which time he made profits of more than £50,000, even during the bear market from 2001. Robbie now runs an independent cafe and catering business, but trades more or less full time. He uses ISA's and PEP's to avoid tax liabilities and runs his own pension fund in a SIPP. Visit his site here
On the rise today after a treeshake is
Carphone Warehouse, plenty more
profits to come from here! CSR
continues to go from strength to strength - again more growth to come and the
fact there hasn't been a dip after such rises is good news.
Burren has crept over 1000
again... can she hold it? If she can, it should follow CSR up to 1100. Recent
buys Victrex and
Hikma are both going well in a
down market.
Little gamble Birse is
rising well with some bigger buying coming in again - I have the feeling some
news is on the way! From the buying going on Birse could rise suddenly and fast!
Aminex continues to inch
over 30p and Harvey Nash improves
after the recent tree shake - some big buying in the early 50s makes me
confident it should rise again. Everything else is doing just fine and dandy a
this year continues to be a blast!!
Tuesday 10th January
On a day like this think about trying to escape your own office life! Get
some new income streams coming in. If you can afford it come to one of my
seminars and I'll teach you how to start making money from the markets.
George Galloway may be realising he made a big mistake doing Big Brother.
I think he thought he was going to come across as streetwise smart when he comes
across as an old fart who has no idea how to talk to anyone under 25.
'All they talk about is sex,' he complains. And they're not interested in
politics!
Why should they be? Let them enjoy their youth and have a bit of fun!
The betting looks fairly straightforward now. Just like a good share, it's
always worth buying extra in a good position and topping up - one of the reasons
I made so much during 2005.
The same applies to Big Brother betting: it looks likely the last 3 will
be Preston, Chantelle and Maggott and it will probably finish in that order. The
only 3 who are really just being themselves.
So I bought more Chantelle, another tenner at 17 and more Preston -
another tenner at 27.I'm thinking about shorting Pete though haven't done it
yet.
And here's John: Barrymore
seems a bit of a talker - the public might like him! Maggot = good nice of him
to take 11th position in the order of fame...the public might like that. Preston
probably popular with the girls. Chantelle a girl full of life and as not a
proper celebrtiy could get a few sympathy votes...interesting. I haven't bet yet
I think it's a bit early, I'd rather short some of them down and take a few
points a week or two later.
With that in mind I bought Victrex
(VCT) yesterday afternoon for £20
a point on the spreads (same as 2,000 shares) for
697 - target
850 stop
650. This plastics company is
really going places. My 850 target could just as easily be 1000.
The main element here is the growth coming from Asia - the company's
rocketing profits and turnover could go skyhigh this year and I love the look of
it. It's gone up a bit already today as I write and I'm tempted to buy a few
more!
So what that it's already gone up a lot when the potential is still not in
the price. Management looks very sound and it's in the right market at the right
time.
A second and this is a much riskier and speculative buy of
Birse (BIE) - I picked up
25,000 at
13.2 yesterday afternoon. Target
15, stop
12.
This construction company has done bugger all for a long time just hanging
around 13p. It's been involved in all kinds of litigation but seems to have come
out the other side.
The only reason I've bought a small amount is due to a bit of volume that
came in yesterday. Could signal something. But maybe not. So I'm in with a
shortish term view though I guess I could hold on for quite a while there is an
8% dividend!
At worst it's trading at fair value so I can't see it going down much and
if there something about to happen there could be 10-20% in it.
Elsewhere a great day for the portfolio - as usual I kept my head
yesterday when everything was going down. The oils are going well with
Burren,
Dragon and
Tullow all looking good.
The chip stocks CSR and
Wolfson both climbing nicely to
highs and both have plenty to come. CSR looks like it is really going to go for
it now! Oil gamble Aminex again
tries to lift clear of 30p, it's been trying for a while - 34 then 40 in sight.
A decent statement from Costain
should see the shares back up to 50p again shortly. Patience has nearly worn
thin over the weeks!
Tuesday 10th January
We just ate good food, slept a lot, walked and a few other things details
of which are available on a premium rate line. Of course we missed Christopher
but we were all reunited this morning and it was great to see him! There's
really nothing like a break from routine to really clear the mind and I hardly
looked at the markets.
My BB win bets on Preston and Maggot still look on course - the Barrymore
short is riskier but I'll carry on holding it for the moment.
I added another BB bet on Saturday and that was a buy of Chantelle for a
tenner at 9. I must admit at the time of the buy I had no idea she was going to
be put through another test so on Sunday night I thought I'd done my money - but
she just passed - phew!
My reason for this bet was simple: could be the public will make her the
winner to kind of say 'up yours' to the real celebs. Also, she seems totally
unfazed by the whole thing and is being herself.
Which is why I have backed those three - the only ones in there who are
being themselves. The rest, let's face it, are a complete pain in the arse!
Chantelle's price has gone up to 15 since I bought but she still looks
good value especially given that she looks a certainty for the last four.
In fact I'm feeling pretty confident right now about my choices - Preston
has stormed into the lead as favourite and looks very likely to be the winner.
Tempted to top up with extra money on Preston, Maggot and Chantelle.
Watch that toddler, I know to my cost that sooner than you think, they
become rapacious teenagers who bleed you dry! Next thing they fly the nest,
marry get fat and don't visit.
Mike - you seem a touch hurt by your brood, sorry to hear that and really
hope it doesn't happen with Christopher but who knows?
Re auctions, the rule of thumb is forget looking at prices after 16.30 and
before 8.00 as they tend to be meaningless.
However people do panic at the first sign of anything going down and my
view is if you have a good strong stock with plenty of potential why bother
selling?
The falls today really hardly dent the profits made. Ie, I am not going to
sell Wolfson just because it's down ten points when I've made 60 points in a few
days. Or why sell Burren or CSR when both are strong companies with so much more
to come?
Of course it's great for day traders because they can play the shares up
and down but I'm no good at that and prefer to stay put!
Looking at my lot generally the falls are very minimal. Often on days like this
the more defensive stocks come into play so
Mouchel Parkman is up. One worth
being patient with. So there's not an awful lot to say about the market today
except it's a great day for the Corporal Jones's: 'Don't Panic!'
Friday 6th January
At the very least we hope for two nights unbroken sleep and much as we
love our Christopher we are looking forward to a small break. So the next update
will be on Tuesday. Try not to miss me too much!
Onto celeb Big Brother. You've got to hand it to the producers. They
managed to find the right mix of the vain, desperate, attention seeking, celebs.
In fact compared to the celebs the non celeb Chantelle seems like a breath
of fresh air and it would be lovely if she won. Bit too early to bet on that
yet.
In fact it is really too early to bet but I've opened up with three bets
based on the history of the show. So £15 has gone on Maggot to win at 20 and £10
on Preston to win at 21 with Sporting Index.
And I've shorted Barrymore (backing him to be out of the top 2) by
shorting for £8 at 22. I think he will crack under the pressure of not being the
only show off.
You get 50 points for the winner then 30 for second 20 fo third 10 for
fourth and 5 for fifth. These two have a strong chance of being in the final
three going on the history of the show.
They are the only two who don't appear 'up themselves' and they should
stay below the radar while the others knife each other during the early days.
Also last year it was the two band members that were first and second.
Women don't tend to do well and they'll get voted out in the early rounds
though shorting at low prices doesn't seem worth the risk.
Most of the gains were made Monday-Wednesday and it's great news that as
things have slowed today and yesterday these shares haven't given much back.
CSR's rise through 1000 looks very promising so I'm hoping 1000 will
become a good support level. Wolfson reports on February 1st so 400 might be the
max I can expect for now but the report will be very interesting to read.
The market-makers are currently tree-shaking Harvey Nash but there are few
sellers and my 60p target is still intact. There's a bit of a shake in
Aminex too where 34p looks the
next likely target followed by 40p.
Highway Insurance looks
like it's about to climb higher again after a period of inactivity - 75p is the
target here which is reachable. A whacking 2.5 million buy went in at 69.5 today
which bodes well.
Burren is still toying with
the 1000 level - it should break through eventually - passing the four figure
mark is often hard work for shares but once through that barrier they can leap a
couple of pounds.
Thursday 5th January
It's also great fun betting on the outcome - I made some decent money on
it last year even though I backed the second, Kensie.
My first thoughts and any first bets will appear here tomorrow. It's very
easy to bet on with the spreads just like shares and you can take profits or cut
losses anytime!
Onto the mailbag!
John writes: 'With my
trading I panic too easily and in the past have taken too much notice of
bulletin boards and assume the poster knows more than me. I realise now some of
them have their own hidden agenda.
My new years resolution will be to stay clear of bulletin boards because
behind every informed post there is no doubt 100 uninformed posts.'
Good mail John and quite right. It's really best to concentrate on the
premium bulletin board on ADVFN - the free one is just full of idiots. There are
only two reasons for them to post.
1 - To get you to buy the tiny penny share they're in in an attempt to get the
price up
2 - To feed their own ego. There's a bit of a battle on between a few posters
who are trying to set themselves up as market 'gurus'. What happens is they get
one share right and then brag about it and post endlessly hoping to get some
attention ignoring all the ones they got badly wrong.
Best to ignore and do your own research and in any event don't be
influenced by their views -decide things for yourself. There are some excellent
and experienced posters of many years standing like myself on my premium
bulletin board so do look in. Luckily because it is on the premium service I can
ban the idiots but actually only had to ban one so far which is pretty good.
I don't read the free public boards anymore though I used to a while back but never
found any useful info - just a lot of backbiting and infighting.
CSR is the star today as it
cruises over 1000p - interesting to see whether it can end the day above that
level. 1200 looks a likely next target. Glad I topped up so many times!
Harvey Nash my recovery
play is going very well, - I'm already up more than 15% but the current 50 could
easily get to 60 by the end of January.
Dignity is starting to
climb nicely and Burren looks
like having another stab at getting over that tricky 1000 barrier!
Shanks has managed to get
through 157 since I bought - 158 is proving tricky to crack but if it does crack
the share should rise nicely to 170 where I would think about taking short-term
profits.
So that's it really, not much to say except as it's so quiet I'll probably
go out this afternoon and somewhere and relax with a coffee and the papers!Wendesday 4th January
Elizabeth's sister Julie is still here from the States so we took
advantage of her kind babysitting offer and went out for a meal at a posh
restaurant in Chelsea - home to the young and beautiful, or you could argue the
vacuous!
The food is worth the money.. it's a kind of modern Asian food. I had
black cod, pad thai while the Mrs had a curry and pork ribs. Absolutely
delicious food. Enjoyed every mouthful. Great cocktails and wines too.
Next to us either side were two couples, both could easily grace the front
page of a magazine... but oh boy did we and some other diners know about it.
At the top of her voice, one particular girl bored her boyfriend with
cringe inducing tales. 'Well, you just wouldn't f**** believe it.. there we
were...the two of us in our undies waiting for the shoot and f***** hell I had
to go to the loo....' etc etc..
On the other side, another girl boasted of all the 'amazing' parts she was
going to get this year.. 'Well, yah, it's a new series called Witchcraft.. I
think I'll get a part, hey I think I could get you in there too....'
It made it all quite difficult for us to talk through all the shouting
(methinks some powder could have been sniffed somewhere beforehand).
But then again you're only young once I guess I was probably loud and
obnoxious when I was 20. In fact I think I was so live and let live eh? Right,
enough of my life, let's hit the mailbag (one more time - Britney Spears)
Onto the mailbag: Jon wrote
this mail entitled 'compulsive gambler and too involved'. This is a great story.
Taken a long hard look at myself and decided that you are right:-
1. Lost approx 65-70% of my money invested, about £90,000 from £120,000
invested.
2. Can give advice but not follow it. That's from me, as an example
BioFuels. Two friends also held, one I nagged until he sold after it had gone
through his stop-loss (He was in profit at the time).
3. Paper portfolio, easy make loads of money (between 20% - 45%) every
three months, using spread bets for shorts and buys from the broker. Even take
into account costs and dividends. No emotion involved easy to follow stop-losses
and research properly.
4. I will not go into my new SIPP, but managed to loss 40% in four months,
in this market you think that would be difficult.
5. Final point, happened middle of December. I researched two companies A
and B, both making good profits and paying dividends, spent about 2-3 hours on
each. Decided what to buy and then bought company C. (No research etc) A and B
up, C down 25% !!!
So thank you for all the money that I will save in the future. If I ever
grow up (Maybe but I am 49 now!!) and can trade correctly I will come back, but
as with most geeks in IT, my job has been moved to India. So following your
advice I do now need the money which would have made my trading even worse. It
will save me a bit in magazines, subscription services etc. But that does
include ADVFN !!
What a great e-mail from Jon..You've realised your mistakes that is the
most important thing. You can now put a new disciplined approach into practice.
Just by writing this mail I feel you are back on the right course. It
takes guts to admit where you went wrong. Well done.
Darren asks: Half way
through reading your book - very enjoyable You mention comparing company PEs
with sector PEs. Where is the best place to get hold of sector PE information?
Er, I have no idea! any reader like to enlighten this reader?!
Kate writes: You are a
flipping genius. Burren has made £10. I never thought it would.'
Nor did a lot of my readers, Kate!
Phillip writes: Happy New
Year. CSR testing 1000 this morning!! You were right.
Blimey well don't sound SO surprised Phillip!!
Waaaaaaahhayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!
More on that in a minute.
First one trade to report made yesterday afternoon and that's a spreadbet
buy of Shanks (SKS). I bought
£50 a point at
155. Target
180, stop
145. It's a relatively short-term
one, this. Shanks is into waste disposal and both fundamentals and chart look
great.
It makes a decent profit and seems simply unloved/unnoticed and these
unloved shares are often the ones that can move fast once they get noticed.
Back now to waahey... This year really has started with a bang and the
portfolio is again up several thousand pounds today to add to yesterday's big
gains.
Star award goes to my old faithful
Burren - up and over 1000p - well, I did think it would get to 1000 by
year end.. I missed by prediction by a couple of days.
I've kept hold of this one during all the numerous treeshakes, analysts
stupid downgrades oil price volatility and e-mails telling me I was wrong. Am I
coming out now? Not on your nellie. Like Cairn before it, there is a long way to
go and my next target is 1200.
Wow Wolfson!! Discussed at
length at both my seminars in December this one has proved a huge winner in a
short space of time and it's roared up again today. More to come and I'm looking
for 600p.
CSR continues its great
gains - it tried to get through 1000 too today but just failed, only a matter of
time before it gets there and goes through.
And well done Dragon Oil!
Up and well over 200 at last - no reason why 300 should not be a mid year target
on this one.
Also joining in the fun are recent buys
Harvey Nash - looks good for 60p
by February - and WS Atkins. Both
shares are still undervalued and I'm feeling confident about both.
And what can I say? Patience has at long last paid off with
Costain as I move into profit.
The current strong move looks set to get the share back to the 50p - one
presumes the share overhang has now ended.
Paragon and
Hunting look strong as does the
rest of the portfolio. Mouchel is the only slight disappointment but patience
should pay off.Tuesday 3rd January
Accusations of cheating from all sides - very unfair when I got accused of
cheating. Not that I didn't try to cheat about three times but I never profited
from it.
I also won 3/3 games of scrabble. My best move was placing 'wild' in front
of 'fires' to make the word 'wildfires' on a triple word score!
Christopher of course got the most presents from his doting relatives.
He's enjoyed playing with all of them especially his new phone which is a bit of
a relief for us as he was obsessed with pressing the button on the real phone a
lot and as he was fond of pressing 999 we nearly had the police over.
I think we can officially say he is now a 'toddler'. Though not walking
far yet he can toddle a bit and seems very pleased with himself. Seek and
destroy missions are getting more violent but he's a wonderful little boy!
Thanks to relatives being around me and Elizabeth got a bit more sleep
than usual and we're very grateful. And I now have enough smelly bath products
to last me a couple of years (I'm very grateful).
I'm really looking forwards to this year and lots of changes. We move into
the riverside apartment early February where my spanking new trading office
overlooking the Thames awaits.
Early March we complete on the sale of the cafe. It's been a great
business but it just ended up too successful which caused too much stress. It'll
give me another £150k or so to play with on the markets.
If Barrymore does appear in Big Bro that could throw a spanner in the
works as he'll either win or get voted out first. My main Celeb BB bets will be
published here Friday.
I'm hoping to get through the stack of mails I've had over Xmas today and
tomorrow so if you have been waiting a while for a reply I hope to get my lazy
ass into motion. The mailbag will be back up and running here tomorrow!
Went and did some sales shopping at Selfridges yesterday and this I think
it a bit of interesting research - although the place was crammed, there were no
queues at the tills.
So I quizzed a couple of assistants who said though it was busy there
wasn't as much buying going on as it may have appeared. I think retail stocks
are still to be avoided.
I'm sure all us investors hope for another positive year - 2005 was just
amazing for me with massive profits banked and I start 2006 with what I think is
an excellent portfolio with more profits to come.
I made a few trades on the 28th of December, rising out of the Xmas
stupor! I bought 18,000
Harvey Nash (HVN) shares at
42p. Target
60, stop
38. This looks like an excellent
recovery play and I bought for three reasons.
1 - the shares look undervalued on the very low looking market cap of under
£25m.
2 - shares fell because an institution wanted to sell its shares and spent ages
getting out. But now a new party is snapping up the shares.
3 - The recruitment sector is usually very strong in January and Feb. This is a
short-term trade and I expect to exit in Feb.
Second trade made on the 28th was a spreadbet in
WS Atkins (ATK). Reader Frank
drew this one to my attention and I thank him. The chart and fundamentals both
look great. I bought £30 a point
at 732. Target
770 stop
710.
And finally I picked up Aminex
again (AEX). I made pots on this
in 2005 the best trade was buying at 8 and selling at 13! And recently I bought
at 18 and sold at 26ish. I've missed a point or two this time but bought
17,000 at
30.49 - target
40, stop
25.
I was happy to wait for a break through 30 as this is very important as it
tried a few times and failed - this time it looks like the break though is solid
on good volume. Of course it remains a risky play and there some potential big
rewards here that make it worth the risk.
Well, what a day! I'm up more than £10,000 in just an hour or two this
morning. The oils in the portfolio are all racing ahead with
Burren,
Dragon and
Tullow all soaring.
And my two lovely chip stocks CSR
and Wolfson are having a
marvellous start to the year. Carphone
Warehouse is racing ahead - what a great buy that was.Wendesday 21st December
It's been a great year for investing and tomorrow, which will be the last
edition of this website for 2005, I'll be producing a special holiday edition
including a review of the year.
It's been a pleasure to produce the site this year. At the beginning of
the year I was going to jack in doing the site - I thought it was too much work
for no return.
But without being sycophantic it's been worth the effort this year. I've
had so many interesting discussions with e-mailers, through the seminars met
some tremendous people and I feel there is a real sense of community here.
What so I get out of it? In a strange kind of way - profits! The site
imposes discipline on me. Because I put the majority of my trades out there in
black and white the moment I have to be disciplined or else I get a raft of
e-mailers going 'Hey what happened to that stop loss you hypocrite!' etc.
I believe without writing this site I simply would more likely ignore stop
losses and maybe take bigger risks. So, thank you all for reading!!
They're bastards those Dragons aren't they! Taking 50% of that guy's
company. Oh well at least they put their hands in their pockets at last. One of
them never stumped up any money the whole series!
Looking forwards to tonight's look at what happened to the winners from
series one - 7pm BBC2. Then that's it for TV. There is nothing to watch over
Xmas as far as I can see. The mailbag will be back tomorrow with a bumper
edition, so get ready!
Santa Claus is out in force today (thanks Santa!) and is delivering nice
price rises to us lucky investors. A share - Wolfson (WLF)- made it onto the
shortlist of shares we discussed at both recent Naked Trader seminars!
I've been waiting to buy it now for a while - the break through 300 was
important. I've been waiting to see if the above 300 level could be sustained -
the answer yes! So yesterday afternoon I took out a
£30 a point spread bet at
305.
This morning I saw it start to rise and also bought shares in the market,
slightly through gritted teeth as I missed 308 by a whisker and ended up paying
310.2p - buying
3,000 shares
Target for both trades 395
- stop loss 280. The share as I
write is looking very strong and some very large buying is coming in.
WLF is a chipmaker and is hopefully my 'CSR' for 2006. There is a lot of
upside potential here - those at the London seminar will remember we discussed
it in depth and went through an interview with the head man from The Times.
WLF's chips are used as far as I remember in I-Pods and other similar cool
devices that I will never own probably now I am in the old fart department - and
like CSR a while back I think a lot of investors and institutions will notice it
in 2006 and the potential upside could even be 600! This one is not without some
risk (ie disappointing trading statement) but the risk is outweighed by the
potential.
Meanwhile I sold Creston to
break even at 186. It actually
looks OK, but I needed a bit extra to put into WLF and that was the weakest
link.
Surprisingly the star for today is
MTL Instruments. It's not done a lot since I bought my three lots but I
had high hopes for it and stayed in there patiently. Today it's shot up 25p with
two big buyers coming in. Looks a goodie for 2006.
CSR is recovering very
strongly today, I didn't really have any doubts and don't see why 1200 shouldn't
be achieved sometime nest year.
Rotork is shooting up
through 650 - what a winner that's been!
Burren is back nice and strong - just a matter of time for the 1000 but I
might not quite get there for the end of the year - shucks!
Paragon is bringing in the dough
now - lucky I held on! A strong upmove today.
A huge rise by Dragon Oil
yesterday afternoon, couldn't quite manage the push through 200 today, just a
matter of time, some big buyers coming in. Tuesday 20th December
Anyway he gives the thumbs up to the decorations and he especially likes
the silver balls. He gets more delightful every day though the 5.30am starts can
be a little hard.
The TV listings continue to be absolutely dire. There's nothing there
except crap - though looking forward to Dragon's Den tonight and the Dragon's
Den follow up on Wednesday (7pm).
I tried my hardest with 'Chopratown' last night but after ten minutes I
groaned and switched off. You know the sort of British made show. Stereotyped
characters, actors you've seen too many times, and the trying oh so hard to be
'cool' - even down to the Oceans 11 type jazz score.
When I did the 5.30am Christopher shift on Sunday I watched the War of the
Worlds DVD. Usual stuff. Aliens attack Earth and zap everyone. We watch family
try and escape - family get separated and then reunited at the end after
amazingly the aliens get defeated.
With these movies the first half an hour is great when you get all the
zapping then they become tedious as is the case here.
Let's hit the mailbag: Robin
writes: 'Please help with this question if you can. Do MM's have a kind of
inverse manoeuvre to a tree shake that they apply to shares which should be
falling?
Any kind help is appreciated. Web site is great, love to read about
Christopher, reading your book for the second time, its brill, wish I had it
when I started trading 12mths ago. God bless you and your family, Happy
Christmas.'
Tricky one Robin. You could be right - market makers just want business
and sometimes they get it by rising the price of a share to get suckers to buy a
bad one.
However you have to be careful here. First remember 'sells' could be
disguised buys - those trade analysers just guess.
Secondly it could be the bad news is now in the price of this company and
the market perhaps feels the worst is over and it's on the way up!
Take a good look at the 'outlook' part of the company's statement - is
there hope in there or do they say things are looking up? Set yourself a stop
loss on this short and come out if it moves against you!
Stuart writes: I wanted to
wish you and your family a healthy and peaceful time over Christmas and for the
New Year.
Life in our house has been lumpy, our young daughter, having suffered from a
serious eating disorder for five years is now in the middle of treatment for
Hodgkin's Lymphoma very tough but what a positive fighter she is.
Our ten member share club is moving into its fifth year a wonderfully
social club with a few members interested in making some money. We save £30 per
month (initially £20) and have grown our money by 40%.
I've introduced many ideas from you and given you the credit so there was
a big thank you from them all at our recent Christmas meeting.
To you and all your readers have
a great Christmas.'
Thanks for such a nice e-mail, Stuart and I wish your family all the best
especially your girl. I am sure she will beat it.
Markets: Two excellent trading statements from two of the long-term
winners in the portfolio: Hunting
and White Young Green.
Both companies report excellent trading and the full value of both
companies is nowhere near in the price of both of them. Hunting is worth at
least 350 and White Young Green at least 400. They are both on the rise today
and both have more to come - lovely stable shares to have in a portfolio.
Second line oils are having a rough day after Dana reported a dry well of
some kind - seems unfair for this to spill over. It's also expiry day for
spreadbet contracts and this has exaggerated the losses especially for
Burren which I expect to bounce
back fast. Dragon isn't effected
and the 200 is looming into view - very exciting!
I got rid of my Delta
yesterday afternoon for 109 to
take a profit of £100 . On paper
this share looks way undervalued but the market doesn't like it right now and
you just have to take notice.
CSR continues to be a
little weak but I don't have any worries there (a big profit cushion helps!)
Paragon is having a good day and
Rotork - well that's been amazing
ever since I bought it, just keeps on going up!
Brammer's trying to get above the
sticky 225 area - 250 beckons once through though it is at the mercy of SETS/MM.
Recent pick Carphone Warehouse
is doing very well to hang onto most of yesterday's gains. This has got to be a
good stock for anyone's portfolio for 2006. Looks like the markets may now be
quietish with small rises up to the big day.Monday 19th December
I'm going to have a few days off updating the site (sorry, I need a rest!)
so the last update of the year will be this Thursday when there will be a bumper
edition with a review of this year's trading.
Moving back now to Friday's rant about the Halifax. I also remember now
when I was in the Halifax various signs that were the equivalent of; 'Piss off
and stop using this branch'
Such as: 'Withdrawals of under £300 cannot be made at the counter' (!)
And 'Only five bags of change can be handed in at the counter'.
Basically the banks want to close down as many branches as possible
Jimbo writes: I know
exactly how you feel Robbie, I queued in the Halifax just the same to deposit
£400 cash, was asked if I could use the drop box to pay a cheque in i.e. DO IT
MYSELF, no I said it's cash. Then after waiting 10 or so minutes and getting the
the front of the queue ..ONEof only two cashiers put a not up... TILL CLOSED.
Pauline aka Mrs Victor
Meldrew writes: 'Commiserations about the Halifax, they should have blood
pressure monitors by the doors of these financial institutions because they
endanger our health and well being.
I was changing my current account from Nat West in London to our local
Barclays and all the signed forms and paperwork I sent them got lost in some
banking black hole. London Nat West were categorical they'd done everything
their end and Barclays were categorical they had received nothing from Nat West.
Nat West said 'Barclays have lost it you will have to sort it out with
them' and Barclays said 'Nat West haven't sent us the forms you will have to
sort it out with them'.. . I spent 3 weeks telephoning, writing letters, hopping
up and down in our local branch. How annoyed would anyone be that from day one
of Nat West closing my account for 3 weeks I ended up with no hole in the wall
cards from either banks.
After 3 weeks of nothingness and still no idea where my money was in a
blind fury I rang Nat West in London and demanded to speak to the Bank Manager,
not the Assistant or sub Assistant or sub sub Assistant but THE BANK MANAGER of
Nat West London Piccadilly and I was truly amazed when they actually put him on
as although I earn a fair wack I am not Sheik Mohammed in the financial scheme
of things.
It took me 2 minutes to tell him what had happened and what a useless
shower were residing under his branch roof, he put me on hold for 2 minutes,
came back and said 'Your funds are on their way to Barclays' (the following day
I received a huge bunch of flowers with an apology so it appears they can get
flowers despatched within 24 hours but not transfer funds which is their
business).
What can I say Pauline except glad you got that off your chest! Banks are
all useless and they will only get worse as will all customer service in this
country which is quickly becoming non-existent either over the counter or by
phone.
Big star of the day is Carphone
Warehouse which has proved a quicker and bigger winner than I thought
when I bought - it's gone way past my original target but like all my big
winners I'm going to stick with it for what looks like a lot more to come.
The deal announced today shows it means business about really being the
main rival to BT. Looks a sure-fire winner for 2006.
It hasn't taken long for CSR
to fight back and 1000 is still on course.
Highway Insurance went for it
this morning but fell back - might take a bit of a push to break that 70.
Rotork has continued to
motor along very nicely and is breaking out well.
Carrs Milling is on the way up
and so it should be it's worth at least 600.
Burren's been a bit
lacklustre but the share's still only 30p off highs.
Dragon Oil is motoring up close
to highs - once through 190, 200 is in sight.
VP carries on its lovely
recent rises and big profits building here.
Mouchel is trying to get through
this sticky 280 area - like to move fast towards 300 if it does. Can
Costain really be moving up to
45? All holders are holding their breath...Wendesday 14th December
'And they were my best stuff,' said Mrs NT dolefully. 'All the old ones are all
right.' Sod's Law, eh, just like shares.
Funny how girls like 'best' crockery with patterns on. I don't think us
blokes really care that much - just give us a plate and who cares they are all
different colours. In fact just shove the food on the floor and we'll eat it up
anyway.
Anyway Christopher has gone off to nursery where he's described as 'the
liveliest boy'.
Another excellent Dragon's Den last night. A shame that three of the
dragons hardly ever put any money into anything. I can't remember the last time
Rachael put her hand in her pocket.
Good that some see potential in things others don't. Amazing how we all
view things differently - exactly the same as buying and selling shares really.
It's a shame they don't follow up on what happens next. For example what
happened to the businesses the dragons bought into last year? Are they doing
well?
And it would be fun to learn whether the rejected ideas had gone on to be
a success. Come on producers.. think about it!!
Here's someone I definitely wouldn't invest in! This mail I got yesterday
shows how some people just never want to learn about how to invest properly and
would rather find someone to follow.
'VERY KEEN TO GET STARTED INVESTING FOLLOWING YOUR TIPS, BUT CAN'T FIND
MANY OF THE COMPANIES YOU MENTION. WOULD IT BE POSSIBLE TO SAY WHICH SECTOR THEY
APPEAR IN THE FT. WHERE CAN I FIND GYRUS, VP AND CARPHONE WAREHOUSE?'
I sighed when I got that mail from Jim. I'm sure Jim is a fine bloke but
it's a real problem when new would be investors decide they want to get into the
market but don't spend the proper time investigating it and latch onto
'tipsters'.
Anyway this is the 'tough love' mail I wrote back to him:
'Jim...I think you have got the wrong end of the stick.. I am not a tipster and
I certainly do not want you to follow what I buy in my diary.
You seem like a new investor. What I buy can be extremely risky and you
could lose a lot of money. I do not want to be responsible for that. If you have
to look things up in the FT you really should NOT be investing at all yet.
I make a lot of mistakes. Please carefully read page one of my website!
Please be cautious and learn to do your own research on shares and don't just
simply try and copy me. You will get in at worse prices and get out at worse
prices and you could lose a lot of money. Learn about the market before you
invest.'
I'm sure he won't be happy about getting this e-mail but it's for the best
for him. Just the fact he's only going to use the FT to find the shares makes me
shudder - he's already on track to lose money.
As I always say, market investment takes time to learn about - and I feel
sorry for those who follow 'tips' in some of those godawful penny dreadful
tipping sheets.
Onto the markets. Again, a bit of profit-taking! I sold my other stake in
Aminex for
25.75 yesterday afternoon to take
excellent profits of £1,812.
My reasoning is the continuing slow drift down of the share price and the
likelihood that there won't be any news for a while and investors will get bored
and pull out for the moment. I think I might be able to get in again lower.
It's one of those shares that this time next year will either be 8p or
108p depending on oil discoveries (or not) and the political situation in the
unstable countries in which it operates. So I expect I will get back in at
hopefully a lower price. 24p has seen good support in the past.
What an amazing performance by
Carrs Milling today - it went ex dividend for 11p but is only down 1p!
That's an equivalent rise of 10p!
Rotork and
Hunting are the two that interest
me today as both are breaking out well - and I expect another 20-30p from both
quite quickly.
Paragon has been a bit
disappointing - Brown's Sipp reveral has had a lot to do with it - losses are
small so far and I may well bow out if it can't get back above 600p.
My two faves - and the two shares that have made between them more than
£50,000 profit for me this year - CSR
and Burren are both taking a
breather before, I believe, moving north again.
Creston is down as it's XD
today. Carphone Warehouse
continues to look good and strong as does
Gyrus. Otherwise, it's pretty
much a 'Xmas shopping' day. Which reminds me I thought of a good present for Mrs
NT today. Can't tell you what till after Xmas.Wendesday 7th December
But good for the entrepreneurs as they are learning to turn down the silly
offers. I'd have given the blokes with the rocking pushchair for babies the
money.. that looked like a good investment despite some competition in the
market.
Maybe it's time the government set up an agency which gave money to
entrepreneurs to help them develop businesses with the government taking a cut
of any success.
But of course that idea is too radical for a feeble government that's
anti-business. What can one say about the pre-budget speech except Gordon's
chickens are coming home to roost.
Mark writes: 'As we both
now have young children I thought a good subject would be how to not panic and
sell when the market make a share look like it is going down even taken it under
support levels to test your nerve.
Hi Mark - I cover this in depth at the seminars. It's reasonably simple:
as long as you hold a share with obvious good fundamentals, it's worth holding
on through falls. Even the quality shares go down a lot sometimes.
For example look at Burren - it's gone all the way from my buy price of
241 all the way to 925 - but there were tons of huge drops along the way - I
ignored them all and kept holding and how well has that paid off!
Onto the markets. It's not been as good a week this week as last but
still, things never always go your way, do they? I couldn't resist buying some
more Brammer (BRAM) on the very
obvious and transparent tree-shake yesterday! So I bought another
2,500 shares at
216.2. Target
250, stop
200.
I was a bit annoyed as I just missed getting 210 right at the bottom of
the shake! Still, 216 is a good price and I would be shocked if my two recent
buys didn't put me in a good profit!
I believe this sound engineer is worth at least 250p and it's gonna get
there. Might take a few goes and a few more shakes but I'm holding on tight to
my shares.
I got on my bike and rode out of
Halfords yesterday afternoon at
318p to take a profit of £255.
My reason was the failure of the share to get above 322 and stay above - it had
tried several times and was looking weak. Having said that it's dipped some more
today and I would be tempted to get back in with another spreadbet soon.
Director selling hasn't helped.
Burren is trying to push up
through all time highs. Can it get up to my year end target of 1000? It could be
a lose run thing!
Some inevitable profit-taking in
CSR today after the mammoth rises of last week - I'm still sitting pretty
as I bought at prices well below today's. It's likely to rise again after the
current dip - and quickly too.
Both Gyrus and
Hunting look good poised at new
break out levels. Paragon is
fighting back after some profit-taking/the sipps debacle. Recent buy
Delta is rising well but can it
get through 120?
My small buyback in Creston
is under water but give it time and with the fundamentals sound, there should be
a rebound. Very difficult with just the 3 mm's. And guess what?
Costain's at 42p, now there's a
surprise.. zzzzzzzzzzz....Tuesday 6th December
Christopher is really bombing around the place now - nothing is now safe
from seek and destroy missions. If we leave him for a second he's bombing up the
stairs earning his playgroup title of 'speedy Gonzalez'
As for my poor 110 year old cat. She's finding it harder to find a safe
place as the lad is desperate to get his hands on her and chases her everywhere.
Well, the cafe was sold yesterday though of course it'll take about 3
months for the deal to go through. We're kind of sad and kind of relieved all at
the same time.
It's been a mixture of fun and stress! But we've learned an awful lot
about how to run a business and I have some ideas for a couple of new ventures
for next year which I hope you all enjoy reading about when the time comes!
We're selling for a lot more than we paid for it and I feel I can't do a
lot more with it - it was tempting to start a chain but the thing is I want to
enjoy my life and have lots of spare time! I don't want to spend my life in
boardrooms!
Onto the markets. For those of you who missed yesterday's late update I
bought Brammer at 224.5 and Creston back at 186 after taking a loss on it.
Right, back to today! You may remember recently I took a loss on a company
called Delta (DLTA) - I noticed
yesterday it had fallen into the low 100s.
It has loads of cash, the last statement was positive and I can't see any
reason why it's fallen or any reason why at the very least it shouldn't quite
fairly rise back to the 125p level.
Just before heading off for the dentist yesterday I noticed it was rising.
I had another look at the figures and again my brow was furrowed. What was I
missing?
So far today this trade has worked ok as the share has moved up a little
today to 113. Let's see whether I'm right or whether I have missed something.
The oil companies have shrugged off our incredibly overrated chancellor's
tax raid - a huge rise from Tullow
today and Burren continues to
head back to all-time highs.
Dragon too is bursting up
and looks like it's about to try and head up to the 200 level. These oil stocks
are a must have for any portfolio.
As I thought yesterday Highway
was hit by the move to SETS-MM and is back up to the mid 60s and I don't see on
earth why a revisit to 70p is not on the cards very quickly.
Recent buy Paragon is hit
by profit takers today but I'm still a happy holder.
VP goes ex dividend tomorrow for
2p so should start the day down 2p.Wendesday 30th November
He's a whole lot of fun and the good news is at the playgroup he's stopped
pulling the hair of all the little girl babies. He is still known as 'speedy
gonzalez' as his crawling speed is quite something. He can get up the stairs in
under ten seconds which is faster than me!
Ok, some bad news - this is the last update until Monday! Yes, I know, I'm
sorry and all that - the reason is we're off to Birmingham tomorrow and staying
overnight for the seminar on Friday. Eliz's mum is coming to stay here to look
after the lovely lad.
Onto the markets. A down day today but I fare not too badly at all.
Aminex continues to look
exciting... rising and sitting just under what would be a massive breakout at
30p, any rise over that will open up 36p in no time.
Burren consolidates nicely
over 900p. I remember being excited when it was 650 when I was on holiday in
Ibiza in the Spring so I ought to be REALLY excited now!
Well, I'm up nearly 300% on my original buy and I've doubled on my top up!
When you add in my big spreadbet long this company has earned me nearly £50k in
profits this year.
In fact looking at the website portfolio there are some HUGE gains there
to be had. Am I taking them yet? No. December is mainly a pretty good month on
the markets. I would rather wait for more gains I think are to come.
CSR is bouncing back
strongly from profit-taking yesterday - I'm still confident with my 1000 plus
target here. Creston moves higher
ahead of results on Monday (should be interesting!).
Carphone Warehouse really
looks like it's going places - this is going to be a mega company and I think I
may hang onto my shares for quite a while. Motoring very strongly today. Spot of
profit-taking in Highway as it
hit 70p. No problem - just a matter of time before I get 75-80!
Tuesday 29th November
Christopher very nearly took his first step yesterday but didn't quite
make it.. but I think he will start to tentatively be a 'toddler' any day now.
He had trouble sleeping last night - Mrs NT tells me he was slapping her
head and pulling her hair at 4am. That's the trouble with us Burnses - we are so
full of energy!
Onto the mailbag. Graham
writes: 'Robbie, Any thoughts on Gordon Brown hitting the Oil Companies with a
Windfall Tax in next week's statement? This could jolt the Share prices!
Hi Graham...I'm not sure - I rather think (hope) rumours of a windfall tax
is pretty much built into the oil prices already after yesterday's falls. And if
there is no such announcement get set for a meaty rise! I'll put my neck on the
line and say I don't think there will be a windfall tax.
Nice to get this mail from someone who has written some well-respected
business books!
Onto the markets. Looks like a kind of consolidation day after some very big
recent rises. I was expecting a few drops but it's not been too bad.
Two trades - first a buy and that's a spreadbet long (buy!) in
Paragon Group (PAG). I bought for
£20 a point (equivalent to 2,000
shares) this morning at 606.
Target 650, stop
595.
This looks a really lovely company and despite recent rises, I reckon
undervalued. Looks to have a way to go barring a market downturn and the chart
is sensational.
I took a loss in my Dairy Crest
short at 495 this morning - it
was rising again and well through the stop loss so it's time to be disciplined
and quit for a loss of £500. It's
not much of a time for shorts and I'm staying clear until market conditions make
shorts worthwhile again!
Burren is very excitingly
flirting with the 900p level - and at the moment is holding over making year end
target of 1000 in sight. Actually had a few snotty e-mails from chartists a
while back poo poohing my 1000 target. So hah and poo to all of you!
Telecom Plus is rising
above the crucial 135 area which should again open up 150. Excellent rise again
for VP Group - the upcoming
statement could push shares though 230 at last and up towards 250 unless there
is something untoward.
CSR fights back well from
yesterday's drop and I feel the market makers have been trying knock out stop
losses to get shares, they're not getting mine under 1000!
Hunting is trying to
conquer 300 again today and the Gyrus
breakout looks significant. Some are resting on their laurels today after some
good rises especially Carrs which
is holding well onto most of yesterday's fab gains.
Carphone Warehouse
continues to please as it simply goes up every day. A future FTSE 100 company in
the making here. So can I say I'm a happy bunny again today? Absolutely!!
Monday 28th November
It went on Saturday and me and Christopher celebrated by stuffing our
faces all afternoon - roast lamb, veg and gravy, yummy - and it all stayed down
- how great to be in the land of the living! Yippeee!!
I tried to watch a bit of TV over the weekend but what dismal fare it is!
Celebrities eating bugs or dancing (Borrringgg! Been there, done that!) There's
Ben Elton's feeble sitcom. Johnathan Ross (Yawn, same old act).
His show (exactly the same as all the others) is a horrible parody of
himself and he doesn't even know it - I lasted ten minutes - the sick-making
stuff about his mum and his patronising attitude to another fawning sidekick was
more than enough to make me rush for the off switch.
Thank goodness for DVD's and the new series of Curb Your Enthusiasm. Real
comedy. About time The Sopranos came back.
Onto the markets - one buy today but it's a high risk buy for the sipp - a
long-term one - which those of you on my e-mail list will get.
What a day - pretty much all the portfolio continues to storm higher!
There's nothing I even remotely want to sell which causes me problems as I need
to sell something to get the cash to buy something new and I have loads on my
list!
Carrs Milling stands out as
a star today some heavy buying has seen it go up a massive 40p - I bought this
just 2 weeks ago at 485 and it's more than 70 points higher - looks like 600p is
an easy target.
Fletcher King has at last
made a move - boy I've had to be patient but it's up more than 10%.
Hill and Smith is also powering
ahead today up 5p on some decent buying (250 on the cards).
Gyrus is really broken out
and I'm in huge profits on my spread bet - the breakout looks very strong and
there is a lot more to come from this big growth story.
Looks like the market feels the markdown in
Telecom Plus was overdone and
it's come right back up to 135. Interesting to see whether this proves a
resistance point and it hit my target very quickly. I'm hanging in for now
because if it does break 135, 150 is next.
MTL Instruments is powering
up - looks like the drop on Friday was a treeshake designed to get some shares
to cover a couple of nice buy orders.
Highway looks good.
Burren is trying to tackle the
tricky 900 level, may take a few goes.
CSR is trading 850-890, good to see a bottom form at 850. So.. I guess
I'm in the money and with December markets usually benign looks like there is
more on the table!
Friday 25th November
What I'd really want is a superb roast chicken dinner. Only problem is it
would come back a few hours later to make a guest appearance.
OK, onto recent trading. I made a return to one of my favourites,
Hill and Smith (HILS) this
morning. Though a good company it's tricky to trade as the market-makers play
their usual tricks.
You may remember the last two times I made good profits once buying at 194
and selling at 216 and the other buying at 203 and selling at 218!
I decided this time I'd like to see a break though this tricky 218-220
area and early this morning Hills went to 220-223, in my opinion unless
it's a false break this could open up 250, so I've taken a chance and bought
2,200 shares at
222.5p. Target
245, Stop
216.
I've done very well trading Telecom Plus (TEP) this year - I made quite a
bit just recently buying at 135 and selling at 170. Through the haze of my
illness the other day I forgot to report I'd picked up
5,000 shares at
112.15p on the 23rd. Target
135p, stop
105.
I'd literally just woken up in bed around 2.30pm and turned on the laptop
to see a warning that the spot price of wholesale gas was causing the company a
lot of problems (including whether or not to hedge).
But I bought the 5,000 shares 15 minutes later at 2.45pm. The share has
become a play on the price of wholesale gas. For that reason it's obviously
risky now and this is a short-term trade for sure! So far this little gamble has
paid off with the shares up to 125.
I took profits yesterday afternoon in
Bodycote at
236 and on my spreadbet at
235. That deals in profits of
£61 plus
£250 on the spreadbet for a total
£311.
My main reason was it had tried a couple of times to get over 238 and
failed - so it seemed to have reached the top of the current range. Any fall
back to the low 220s and I will probably buy back.
Honestly, the number of e-mails I've had over the last year telling me to
sell Burren! Glad I cheerfully
ignored them all as the share tries to conquer 900 for the first time. As a
buyer at 239 and 466, I am one happy guy!
My other fave CSR is also
scaling new heights - both shares are around the same price funnily enough. Oil
play Aminex is rising again - a
break though 30p is what us holders are waiting for.
VP is also rising fast.
Hunting is trying to conquer 300p
again Tullow Oil looks strong The
only disappointments in the current portfolio are
Costain and
MTL Instruments.
Creston is coming right
back to test 220 again - looking forward to results shortly which I feel will be
rather tasty. Highway
simply goes up a bit every day, nowt wrong with that is there?
Gyrus,
Hunting and
Halfords and all gaining rapidly
too. Carphone Warehouse and
Dragon also doing the business!
So it's been a great week for the portfolio if not for me personally!
Thursday 24th November
Went to ADVFN on Tuesday to chat to people on the phone and do a live chat
via the net too. I also signed 250 copies of my book at the same time... phew!
Some previous guys who had gone in to do live chats had been torn to
pieces by the ADVFN customers - I got away quite lightly - some of the bulletin
board contributors can be, let's say, slightly aggressive, I think I'm just
about tolerated.
The ADVFN office is a quiet hub of activity, where I was sitting at the
helpdesk watching the team answer questions from the public. I was impressed
with the team - they are a very nice bunch.
Went for a drink afterwards with Clem who is the head cheese and a
fascinating character full of interesting city related stories none of which I
fear I can share with you!
Back home using the filthy disgusting cattle trucks otherwise known as the
London tube, how can people use them every day?
Then I suddenly felt really sick and couldn't touch a meal kindly provided
by Elizabeth. I then got hot sweats and felt worse and worse till I found myself
flat on the floor for two hours unable to move during the night. So yesterday I
just spent the day in bed just managing a bit of toast and some soup. All
together now: Ahhhhh.
On top of all that Christopher is off colour too and Elizabeth isn't
feeling that great - and the last goldfish just gave up with it all and died. So
all in all it's a wounded Burns household - the only member of the household not
affected is the cat who's 104 and thinks we young ones are all wimps.
Today I am just trying to recover and take it easy. Right, I feel better
for getting all that off my chest so a quick look at the mailbag now:
Obviously as I've been sick I have hardly traded but I did get out of my
shorts. While the market is like this shorts are going to be hammered.
So instead of taking a £400 profit on Next like I should have done (it
even reached my target!) I ended up taking a loss of
£220 closing out at
1388.
I also closed the Halfords
short extremely hastily when I saw the excellent statement this morning (dammit!)
and got out at 306.5 for a loss
of £540
The statement was so good - I decided to 'flip' the position and went
long! For £30 a point at
309.5. Target
330, stop
300. I think the lesson with my
poor shorting is: don't try and find shorts for no reason unless the main market
is dropping.
Onto happier matters, where do I start with all the big gains since the
start of the week? The oils have been hot.
Dragon Oil has spurted higher -
Aminex is gushing up and
Burren is sizzling.
Carphone Warehouse has
risen ten points, Hunting has
sparked higher. Tullow Oil has
reached new highs and Gyrus too
is breaking new ground. Highway
Insurance continues to creep higher.
VP has added more than ten
points in the last two days which augurs well, I've been very patient with this
one and I hope my patience results in more and more profits. So this week has
seen profits grow by many thousands of pounds. Very nice!
Wendesday 23rd November
Monday 21st November
And now we have a happy ending. Christopher had quite a few visitors but
he was feeling a bit sick and wasn't quite himself which was a shame.
We're a touch worried about him today as he can't seem to keep any food
down though he's taking milk. He's got a very runny nose and is just being sick
a lot.
I'm afraid there won't be an update tomorrow... it's because I'm going to
the offices of ADVFN for the afternoon for what they are calling 'Robbie Burns
Day'.
I don't normally agree to these kinds of things as I'm a bit fearful of
getting into 'guru' status and asked them NOT to refer to me as such.
I thought this time to go for it so I'll be there taking phone calls I
think about the book and my style of trading. So between 2pm and 4pm you can
call me there I believe and have a chat to me. Bound to get the odd crank call -
(maybe a heavy breather?) but I can take care of myself!
I'm not quite sure how it'll all work... but have a look at ADVFN tomorrow
(Tuesday) and there should be an ad explaining all about the afternoon. Maybe I
won't get any calls which will be just fine - I'll have a coffee and a muffin
and chat to the ADVFN folk. I'll report back on Wednesday with what happened on
Tuesday... could be interesting!!
They really are everything you'd want to see from a set of results -
rising profits, dividend, and a growing company. The market cap of only £40m is
a joke!
The shares are worth at the very least 600p on these results and if only
it was a trendy tech share much more - as it makes boring old flour it's
overlooked by most investors.
The shares are up nearly 30p but there should be much more to come and I
think they are still a buy even after today's rise. It goes to show sometimes
you can buy on the day before results and make money! Looks like there weren't
any investors who had profits to take.
Two of my favourites are soaring higher today and ironically they are both
at about the same price - 860p! I'm talking
Burren and
CSR - two of my biggest positions
and two huge winners. I don't see why both shares are not capable of getting to
the 1000 mark - especially CSR.
In an excellent day for the portfolio,
Tullow Oil is also on the verge
of a massive breakout, approaching its highs. A big treeshake by the market
makers in Creston!
Aminex has been bought by
'Evil Knievel' apparently, the publicity-hungry short-seller. Well, let's hope
he is right as I am in them.
You might remember he shorted
Vanco at 250, the same time as I bought! They have since doubled and
strangely we have not heard any more about that trade!
Friday 18th November
She wasn't wrong. I was in a lot of pain last night so went to bed early
to try and get over it. It's not so bad today but still quite painful though
I'll try and avoid antibiotics.
Surprisingly there was something even worse I had to put up with during
the treatment. As it's a posh specialist, they give you a movie to watch through
DVD glasses.
And stupidly I chose Oceans 12. I knew it had had bad reviews but I
thought it would be easy entertainment like Oceans 11.
So not only was I getting painful treatment, I also watched a painful
film. Painful acting script and an all round stinker. Trouble is once the film
starts you can't get them to stop it!
Obviously the pain today has put me in a bad mood so I'm trying to shut
myself away - if I go to the cafe later I'll lay low in case I say what I really
think of one or two of the customers!
The most painful thing of all is yet to come: the bill which I'm guessing
will be about £500 - anyone want a bet - my spread is £480-£520 - buy or sell!
The other buy is one made this morning and a return to
Carrs Milling (CRM) a company I
have as many of you know made loads of money on over the last two years and it
gets a few mentions in my book.
My best buy was buying at 318 and selling at 545! It got to 600 recently
which was probably too high and has since sunk to below 500 and it currently
looks oversold.
It's a bit of a gamble as results are due on Monday - I believe they will
be good figures - the only fly in the ointment is they spent money on acquiring
two other companies and these will be loss-making till next year. Still, the
market looks forward and the future looks bright.
So boring through a flour making company sounds, it's made me plenty of
boring profit and I hope this buy will make me some more. I bought
1,300 shares at
486. Target is
550, Stop loss
420.
Holding a company on the day of results is always nerve wracking but I'd
be surprised if there wasn't some promise in the results - the market cap at
just £39m looks too low. And if it dips on Monday (especially if it dipped a
lot) I'll probably nip in for some more.
Stars of the day? Big star for
Aminex which as I suspected bounced nicely off 24p. Market-maker
Winterfloods which holds the biggest amount of shares look like they've been
dropping the price to get shares and now they are happy to let the price rise.
This is still one of my biggest holdings so the big 13% rise today is very
welcome!
If it can power up through 30p it could look very exciting indeed. It
tried to get through 30p last week and failed. I hope a second attempt will be
more of a success
Burren has soared today to
near 850 again. One of the posters on my Advfn PBB told me to sell the lot a few
days ago at 790 - just as well I didn't take any notice.
Lovely CSR is going back up
- as I thought the dip below 800p was very temporary. I still target up to
1000p. Highway Insurance
continues to gain ground and Tullow Oil is powering through a previous high.
Recent buy Creston is going
well - my buy at 203 a couple of days ago looks good with the price at 217p. A
break through 220 will open up 250. Although results are due soon!
Carphone Warehouse is breaking
out well and Bodycote is getting
back up there! So I'm a happy bunny today!
Thursday 17th November
I took profits on Telecom Plus
shares I bought at 134p selling
3,750 shares at
167.6p to take profits of
£1,227 - a handsome profit!
The shares were way past the target and the failure to get through 175
three times made me decide to take profits for now. It's still one to trade in
the future though and I expect to be back in soon enough.
Yesterday's buy Creston is
still going great guns against a falling market and it's held onto yesterday's
gains and is still rising.
Creston's rise today looks especially good when you would expect some
profit-taking today after the big rise. There aren't any sellers for now!
The oils are doing OK with Burren
back over 800p.. Bodycote is in
the last chance saloon. CSR has
fallen below 800 which is a touch disappointing but then again it is incredibly
volatile and could be back up over 800p double quick.
Highway Insurance is on the
way up - a lovely share this and one that's a sleep at night stick with share
for the long-term that should simply keep rising.
My friend Laurent from Switzerland mailed me to say he's gone long on
Halfords at the same time I'd
gone short. He reckons it's ripe to be taken over. And he's a good trader so I
will be sticking very tight to the stop loss! There you are, for every seller
there's a buyer! Some buying going on in
White Young Green in the mid 360s which looks promising.Wendesday 16th November
So instead of sitting on your arse reading my stuff tomorrow lunchtime why
not get out instead! Go for a run or a swim! Alright then, go to the pub for a
beer.
I took profits on Telecom Plus
shares I bought at 134p selling
3,750 shares at
167.6p to take profits of
£1,227 - a handsome profit!
The shares were way past the target and the failure to get through 175
three times made me decide to take profits for now. It's still one to trade in
the future though and I expect to be back in soon enough.
Yesterday's buy Creston is
still going great guns against a falling market and it's held onto yesterday's
gains and is still rising.
Creston's rise today looks especially good when you would expect some
profit-taking today after the big rise. There aren't any sellers for now!
The oils are doing OK with Burren
back over 800p.. Bodycote is in
the last chance saloon. CSR has
fallen below 800 which is a touch disappointing but then again it is incredibly
volatile and could be back up over 800p double quick.
Highway Insurance is on the
way up - a lovely share this and one that's a sleep at night stick with share
for the long-term that should simply keep rising.
My friend Laurent from Switzerland mailed me to say he's gone long on
Halfords at the same time I'd
gone short. He reckons it's ripe to be taken over. And he's a good trader so I
will be sticking very tight to the stop loss! There you are, for every seller
there's a buyer! Some buying going on in
White Young Green in the mid 360s which looks promising.Tuesday 15th November
Yesterday a great idea hit him, take Daddy's keys and stick them down the
toilet. He grabbed them and crawled at great speed up the stairs, triumphantly
ending with a forceful chuck of the keys down the bog. God knows what else he's
put down there as it's now blocked!
What on earth has Sky News done with its morning show? I used to watch it
to get away from the inane chatter between presenters on all the other channels.
I just want a bit of proper news read out, that's all.
Sadly Sky News has decided it needs inane chatter too so it's Eamon Holmes
and a bimbo talking rubbish. That's it, the best plan is to not have the TV on
at all in the morning.
Regarding the root canal I'm going to have done (starts on Thursday)
Rodger writes: 'Well, I finally
got a copy of your book. Have barely put it down and cannot wait to get back to
it. I know it is going to help hone my trading skills.
We have somit in common! I have to have root filling too. Ouch! And I did
not like the size of the bill either - 328 pounds!! Yes, you guessed, no NHS
dentists where I live. I have a good mind to send the bill to the Health
Secretary! Hope your tooth is not bothering you!'
Actually it's not bothering me yet but I know if I don't get it done it
will! Best to get it over with, I reckon. So great it'll probably cost £500!
Looks like I timed this very nicely as it's already risen a few points
since my early bird buy - at one stage it rocketed to 212 but has come back
since then.
I've been eyeing this one up for a bit and yesterday's rise prompted me in
this morning as it had broken through what I call in my book 'the nervous
nineties'.
That is, shares just about to pass through a '100' level (100, 200, 300
etc) often pause and either drop away or break through. When they do break
though, rises can be big. There's been plenty of buying today so it looks like
other investors have spotted this one too. It all looks very bullish.
I'm sure those of you who read my book will understand why I like this
one. Tremendous looking breakout from previous territory recently. And a look at
the last year's reports shows this is a company not messing about - it wants to
grow - and grow fast- by buying other companies and making them, and therefore
itself more profitable.
So my view on this is about a three month one (My entry plan is to hold
for that long and exit at 245-250) - I think a rise to 250 is possible in this
time frame.
Results are due out early December which of course may change my plan but
if the results are good, the shares could fire higher. The company reported last
month its plans are on track so I don't expect any nasty surprises. Two
companies that it's bought are already winning new business. I would expect the
dividend to be raised substantially.
I've also added a new short - that's in
Halfords (HFD). I've sold for
293 for
£40 a point - target
260, stop loss
302. My main reason for shorting
is not because Halfords is such a terrible company, it's just that its margins
are coming under pressure and it's had a good bounceback recently.
I'm hoping for a slow drop towards the 260 level for what I hope is easy
money. Well, I guess we'll find out soon enough..
I took a loss of £847 on
Delta by selling at 109.76.
Luckily I did flog some off a while back at 128 so not too much damage done
personally. I've given up trying to figure out why it's so weak except you just
can't fight the market. I would be interested in getting back in at some stage.
Elsewhere a down market today though I am not suffering especially. The
oils are doing OK with Burren
trying to regain 800. Dragon has
put on a few decent points too.
Rotork's push above 600
looks extremely bullish if it can hold it today.
Carphone Warehouse looks strong
in a falling market. One of my favourites
White Young holds firmly at
higher level and is ripe for a push up to 400p any day.
CSR is as volatile as ever
- it would be great to see a close above the 800 today. However like Burren this
is a hold for a long while and intraday volatility doesn't worry me that much.
Otherwise the portfolio holds quite nicely with plenty of decent profits
sitting there from recent buys. Don't feel like taking any just yet.
Monday 14th November
The good lady did what good ladies do and bought clothes. We then settled
down at the lovely Covent Garden Hotel (never mind what happened next, I would
have to make a charge if I told you).
At 6pm it was off to The Ivy for starters and meet some of the Telecom
Plus directors and other distributors who have more than 500 customers. (Anyone
with over 500 gets this weekend treat once a year).
Then a cab to the theatre and a hilarious production of Mel Brooks' The
Producers. If you've not seen yet, give yourselves a treat and go - it's a laugh
a minute. Tickets are hard to get, you need to book in advance.
Charles Wigoder, head cheese of Telecom Plus (aka Utilities Discount
Warehouse) had to book them nine months in advance. So get booking and don't
miss out.
Then we went back to The Ivy for the mains and pudding (Beef Wellington
and frozen berries if you really want to know).
I sat next to Charles and his lovely wife Elizabeth who adores her kids -
one of them is about to meet Prince Charles and is understandably getting very
nervous.
Then he sat at home, decided he was getting bored, discovered this little
company called Telecom Plus which was about to go bust in 1998 and bought it -
he turned it round, hired ex staff from People's Phone, launched it on OFEX and
turned it into a company now worth £100m.
He works very hard - 14 hours a day and weekends. Being a lazy bugger
personally that kind of thing is not for me but I do admire those that have the
drive and ambition to build companies (especially when they don't even need the
money!)
He's pretty much talked me into wanting to take up playing Poker. Just
remember me saying this when I'm bankrupt in six months having gambled all my
money away on poker sites!
Charles has a son who's 13 and he gave his son £5,000 to play with on the
markets - a great idea and I'll do that with Christopher. I had a copy of my
book on me and gave it to Charles to give to his son as a present - hope he
reads it and it helps him to make loadsamoney!
Anyhow we all had a good evening though it was tempered a little by the
knowledge that most of the distributors there were about to head off to Las
Vegas for a week - all paid for by Telecom Plus including tons of daily spending
money!
Sadly although I qualified for the trip, I had to turn it down because I
didn't want to leave Christopher for a week! The men think I'm crazy and the
women think it''s sweet. I've come to the conclusion I'm crazy!
The evening finished at 1am and we woke up at the hotel at 10am - the
first time I've slept till ten since Christopher was born.
CSR has really been my star
performer this year - I've made thousands of pounds from buying this one all the
way from the early 440s. And it's STILL a buy in the 800s. I won't be satisfied
it is not undervalued till it hits 1000p.
As many of you know I hold a lot of these - more than £50,000 worth and I
am very confident. The company is giving a blue tooth demo today to investors
and analysts and this is likely to push the price up even more tomorrow.
Rotork looks exciting - a
couple of grand up on this one - and more to come if the 600p mark can be broken
and it's nearly there.
With the third mm back in MTL
Instruments as I predicted this helped push up the price very nicely
Friday afternoon, it's holding well today and it won't take much to get it
motoring up to at least the 450 level.
Gyrus and
Costain look promising both
sitting just as breakout levels and both could make major moves soon.
Aminex tested support at 23-24
today and it proved strong for the moment.
Bodycote shows sign of a revival.
Telecom Plus is going well,
trying to get to that sticky 180 area again. So unusually for me at the moment,
no trading today so far.
Friday 11th November
I put the cafe on the market today for £170,000. Fair price I think as
it's currently turning over nearly £300,000. It's been a fun ride but like a
share businesses are there to be sold. I bought it for £70k so that's not a bad
profit for four years (plus the profits of course).
I find it's become too much of a distraction and with a new baby and the
fact we're moving away from the area a bit it seems a good time to go.
The agents thinks we'll get near the price (depends whether a bidding war
develops!) and the current manager is thinking of putting in an offer. Let you
know what happens.
We are being treated by the directors of Telecom Plus this weekend along
with some other distributors to a weekend in a posh London hotel followed by
starters at The Ivy, seats at the brilliant West End production of The Producers
and then dinner back at The Ivy.. while the mum in law looks after Christopher.
It's gonna be fun - I'll report back with any gossip on Monday.
Do you think I should ask the head cheese whether he hedged gas at a
decent price and whether the next report will be any good? Probably not. You
shouldn't really mix business with socialising!
I realise I now have some enormous positions in CSR but I do feel when you
have a potential big winner like this one it's worth loading up. So I have. But
that's it now, I've got more than enough and I don't intend on buying anymore.
As I write they have broken 800 which looks super bullish. A close today
above 800 would be good but if it doesn't I'm sure an attempt will be made next
week to get through.
Gyrus looks interesting for
a top up - I'm watching level 2 carefully. 6 market makers on 345 as I write -
but if they started to mark up and only one left on 345 I would be very
interested in topping up again as 400 could be achieved quickly once through
this sticky area. But it might take a while longer.
My goodness am I really making money on a short? Yes! £300 up so far on my
Next short - it's very volatile
though so not celebrating yet.
Telecom Plus is trying to
hit the 180 level again. Through there 200 is in sight though profit-taking
would probably tempt me at that level.
The oils are likely to be volatile and there is some downward pressure -
that's likely to be the case for a while but I expect December to be excellent
for them.
Rotork is slowly heading up
back to the 600 level - last time it got there it sprinted to 620 fast. There is
a chance of getting past that and through to 650 by year end.
Bodycote's been
disappointing but I hope 225 is a floor, if not I'd have to take a small loss.
Aminex is holding up well - could
go either way as these gambles tend to do. But as I said it's quite an easy one
- it's a sell at below 24 and a hold/buy up to 29, then we'll see!
Thursday 10th November
Then only problem is we can't watch any TV in the evening because the MIL
disapproves of anything with a single swear word or say, if a bare bum appears.
Ie, we can't watch Rome as you can imagine (nudity) or my favourite comedy Curb
Your Enthusiasm (bad words). In fact a year ago the MIL came up the stairs while
I was working on the laptop. Unfortunately for me Eurotrash had just started on
Channel 4 and there were bare bums, tits and willies wobbling all over the
screen.
'Is that what you're watching,' she exclaimed. 'Disgusting!'
What could I say? So the MIL I reckon still thinks I watch filthy porn
while her daughter is sleeping downstairs!
I've traded Aminex a bit -
in 'real life' I sold some to take profits at just over 26 and then bought them
back at 24.68p.
I think this one probably trades itself. If a floor forms at 24p then it
will probably trade in a 24-29 range for a bit. However if the 24 gives I'd
probably take profits as that could signal a drop to 21p. So target on these
ones is 29, with stop loss a
tight 23.5.
Elsewhere again a quiet day with nothing much to report which I'm quite
glad about as last week was quite frantic so it's a day of rest really.
A few ups and a few downs but nothing stands out as a particular mention.
Gyrus and
Hunting continue to sit
tantalisingly at breakout levels. The oils are steadyish.
A third market maker has appeared at
MTL Instruments at last which
should help stop the recent volatility. A matter of patience now.
Rotork has taken its time
to get above 570 so the move to the late 580s today looks good for a push
through 600 and a return to the highs at 620 where I would consider taking
profits.Wendesday 09th November
Elizabeth's mum is here for a few days to help out with Christopher. So
that gives us a bit of spare time for a change!
She's going to look after Christopher while we get some quality time which will
be great.
Thanks to having a certain number of customers this weekend, Telecom Plus
(Utilities Discount Warehouse) is treating us with some other distributors to a
posh hotel, the theatre 'The Producers' (ironically one of my sister's theatres)
and dinner at The Ivy. We're looking forward to it!
However I just couldn't help myself and topped up with some more
CSR shares. I already have a huge
spreadbet long at 639 (up more than £2,000) , a big buy for the Mrs at 649 and
now I've bought another 1,000
shares this time at 749.9 even
though they were already up 15p on the day. Target
859, stop
700.
This share is just too good to not be heavily into - the potential for
good news is fantastic and in the run up to Xmas they could run up in a big way.
I've made a lot of money from them this year already (I bought at 445p at one
stage!).
Could I actually make money from a short this time?
Next is going down.. let's hope
it keeps going down! Pretty quiet for the portfolio today.
Gyrus and
Hunting sit right on resistance
levels and both, especially Gyrus could sprint higher.
The oils are quiet today. Steady buying of
White Young should see the shares
creep up towards 400p. Bodycote
is a tad disappointing though hoping recent profit-taking should cease soon and
buyers will re-emerge.
Carphone Warehouse is down
a little too but my purchase was a long-term one so it doesn't much matter for
the moment.
Aminex is holding onto
nearly all of its big gains which is highly encouraging - thought about top
slicing but decided to continue riding the remarkable uptrend. As for
Costain, COME ON before all us
holders go crazy with boredom!!! Tuesday 08th November
Now what would my policies be? Well, pretty radical and I'll throw them
into the ring. Legalise prostitution and soft drugs. Abolish current taxes
and National Insurance and have one rate of 25% starting at £15,000.
Stop police obsession with hounding motorists - tackle crime instead.
Scrap most speed cameras. Leave in danger areas only. Stop trying to make money
out of the public and serve them instead.
Stop councils' obsession with raising money from public. Relax parking
restrictions where possible. Introduce proper bike lanes.
Health: all entitled to free body screen every three years. Provide
preventative medicine and homeopathic alternatives. Concessions for those who
keep fit.
Teach school kids about life as well as academic things. Ie, how to handle
money. Encourage business instead of stifling it with red tape. Big tax breaks
for those starting businesses.
Ban Heart FM from playing 'I'm every woman' every five bloody minutes in
the kitchen at the cafe. I can't take it much longer. There you are - easy to
come up with some real alternative ideas.
Actually, I didn't think much of CPW till recently but you have to hand it
to the head cheese there - what an amazing job. The exciting thing about this
share is the sky is the limit - the main reason for buying is the company's
objective of becoming the new BT.
One sell today and to help fund the purchase and that's
Hill and Smith - I sold my
4,000 shares (actually two lots
of 4,000 and I lot of 1,900 if you want my full dealings).
Main reason for selling at this price is the share's inability to get
through the 220 - I would be happy to re-buy soonish lower as this company is
going places.
And I took a loss on my spreadbet short in
Meggitt selling for
311 to take a loss of
£160. Seems pointless to have a
short in a hot sector (defence). The stop loss was also breached.
The portfolio is tinkling along nicely without anything amazing happening.
There's not much to report except another excellent statement from
White Young Green sees the shares
inexorably move higher again - 400p beckons.
A lot of the portfolio is sitting at levels where they could break out or
fall back - so I remain vigilant though the market seems quite settled.
CSR looks the best of the bunch
today.Monday 07th November
Chocolate with bits of smarties inside - how exciting is that? I bought a
huge box for the cafe and realised it's only me eating them.
I think we should have a good supply of chocs at the seminars - let me
know if you're coming and you have a favourite sweet or chocolate you would like
supplied.
Right, that's Haloween and Bonfire Night over, thank goodness. Noticed a
few less bangs this year - perhaps a sign that people have a bit less money to
spend.
Nice relaxing Sunday. A breakfast out and some bits of shopping - new
keyboards and mice for me and new clothes for the Mrs.
Mahesh writes: 'Notice on your
daily update today you have said you hold £50 grand of Aminex but what I could
not understand is that the NMS on these shares is only 2000 shares which is
approx worth £590 in value.
Ah! Market sizes are changed every 3-6 months I believe depending on the
number of shares traded. The 2,000 NMS quoted for Aminex is old news. Because
Aminex has recently proved popular, market-makers are dealing in sizes of
between 75,000 and 500,000 directly online. So it's become much more liquid.
VP is up after announcing a
decent looking acquisition - a nice long-term hold of mine with a very long-term
uptrend that's still there.
After the dramatic rise on Friday afternoon,
Aminex not surprisingly is seeing
a bit of profit-taking - I'm not one of them! It added an extra few thousand
pounds profits! The big rise shows there is almost certainly more to come - 30p
will be a sticking point but will open up 34p if broken.
Small risers across the board - these include
Hunting,
Highway Insurance,
Bodycote,
Costain,
CSR and
Rotork.
White Young Green, a long-term
hold is creeping higher - the 350 level looks set to be broken, opening up 395
at which point I think I might take profits. Recent top-up
Gyrus is seeing some good buying
- 337 is the key resistance point here.Wendesday 02nd November
'So it's six o clock old time that's five o clock new time...' Anyone else
been doing this or is it just me? It's just me then, ok.
What is going on with the weather? I can hardly believe it's November -
still feels like September. Can't be doing the clothes retailers any good can
it? Have you bothered to buy a pullover yet?
You know what us men are like. Well, it's nearly Xmas now, might as well
stick to last year's pullovers and not bother buying any new ones this year -
any excuse not to have to go clothes shopping eh?
I bought a £50 a point
spreadbet at 230 and then as it
rose some more bought 2,000
shares in the normal market at 232.95p.
Target/stop for both deals 260/220.
This engineer is recovering very strongly and several brokers have upped their
targets recently.
The chart looks hot and there are some very decent volumes coming in. My
thought is to ride this as a momentum trade so my plan on this one is quite
short-term - perhaps only 3-4 weeks. Or even less! I would come out if it
started slipping so have a quite tight stop loss.
Burren is flying today -
looks a significant near-term breakout which opens up 850 again in time. My
risky oil play Aminex is really
delivering and today announced a licence in Egypt close to where there have been
some good oil finds. Looks promising.
Do I really see Costain
rising today? My God I do! Could this be the start of a bigger move? Another
good contract win announced today - how much longer can the shares trade at such
a silly price?
CSR reported today and as
expected it's a good one. The company is still obviously undervalued and I'll
ignore the profit-taking today and hold firmly onto my shares.
Also on the way up yesterday's buy
BskyB - also heading higher Hill
and Smith, Highway and
Tullow Oil looks strong too. With
Vanco and
VP also gaining ground I am a
happy bunny today!
Monday 31st November
It's probably ok if you live in a nice little village somewhere where the
kids next door come round dressed up and it's all lovely.
Try living in London. You get gangs of hooligans going round banging on
doors and almost demanding money or else they'll smash in your windows!
I was in the cafe having my dinner on Friday at 7pm when a huge gang of
kids come in with one bewildered adult. 'Halloween is on Monday,' I pointed out.
'Well, they're having their party today,' said the 'adult'.
I proffered a tub of lollies and the greedy kids (some suspiciously looked
a bit old) pretty much grabbed it off me, got as many of the lollies as they
could before running off to probably sell them to other kids. What on earth are
we teaching our kids? Be greedy, grab as much as you can or be threatening?
There's nothing wrong with kids having parties and dressing up - but why
we have to take on this American festival here I don't know.
All I know is tonight I will probably have to sit by the door of the cafe
to protect the girl working tonight from being terrorised by gangs of little
thugs.
So many excellent risers it's hard to know where to start except I'm glad
I had the balls to buy back my favourite shares as they hit their lows a few
days ago.
CSR is the star of the day
- I think it makes its quarterly report tomorrow, if it does the shares will
probably either steam up to 800 or fall to 600! Still the rise to 700 looks very
promising - sadly I have a lot less than I had though luckily I did buy 2,000
for the Mrs ISA last Monday at 653!
Burren is a day traders
favourite right now - up 30 one day down 30 the next - not my game but the
long-term uptrend is still there for us patient investors.
Plenty others soaring today. Vanco
is going great guns up 16p trying to regain the 500p level.
Telecom Plus has got over the 150
again - just and any further rises could open up 170 - but this is a crucial
time for the shares. Next statement from the company should be back end of
November/early December.
Hill and Smith is also
soaring today climbing confidently up through 200 - a break of 208 would look
good for more. My risky oil play Aminex
is up nearly 5% on an oil production deal.
Tullow Oil is galloping up
- in fact the only shares to miss the fun today are
Dragon and surprise surprise
Costain which remains a big
disappointment. Buyers continue to be outweighed by a persistent seller.
Even better news is that my shorts haven't been hit too badly by the
massive market rise today. One has even managed a slight fall! Wendesday 26th November
As many of you know I am loaded up with
Highway Insurance and holding
good profits now as it continues to advance. There should be another 10p to
come.
Hunting has shot higher -
very glad I re-purchased at lower levels.
CSR, and
Telecom Plus are holding well at
higher levels.
Oil gamble Aminex where I'm
up 25% in just a few days is still going well - it looks like having another go
at the sticky 24p area. A move above that would be bullish. The recent market
down leg really threw up some bargains and happy I took advantage.
The only one to drop today is MTL
Instruments - the reason I'm not selling and reducing my stop loss to
310p is this: the only reason the price has gone down is because one of the
market-makers has pulled out leaving only two!
The shorts I took out when the market was dipping are only slightly higher
which is good news as the market has gone up a lot higher so I would guess this
shows me they are still worth holding onto. So all in all a good day but the
market downturn could easily come back as fast as it came and I remain watchful!
Tuesday 25th November
So hopefully shortly daily updates will come through as usual. If the site
doesn't get updated at any point this week, then we still have problems.
Happy Birthday to me!! Yes, 106 years old today, well that's how old I
feel after last week's hectic trading! No big 'do' this year - that's every
other year. Mrs NT took me shopping for my birthday buying me a two very nice
jackets.
Away from the daily excitement now and here's
Kenny: See you bought into TLW
again! While you were away lapping it up, Tullow dropped a bomb, (below my stop
loss), but I feel good about this company and I sell!
I do feel this is a good share and my instinct tells me to buy in again,
but I don't seem to be confident enough to do it, just as I am with stop losses,
(always thinking it will rise again and usually being caught when a share goes
even lower). Is there any treatment for investors like me, Robbie? Do you think
TLW will always be this volatile?
Kenny you're suffering from what all us investors suffer from - fear and greed!!
Things have become more volatile and placing a value on the second line oilers
is difficult. I hope to stick with it as I think it's still got a lot of
potential. You did right to sell at your stop loss!!
Hunting (HTG) seems to be a
bargain price now. I bought 2,000
shares at 267.95p Target
300p, stop loss
245p. At one point it was merrily
sailing up what looked to be the 400p level only to fall back dramatically while
I was away. Looks a good time to get back in.
I'm also back in CSR - with
a spreadbet - £20 a point at
639p. Stop loss
595, target
700. A statement due out in a
couple of weeks will push the share one way or the other - I want exposure
because if it's as good as the last one, the shares could soar.
A decent day for the portfolio. Star of the day is
Aminex where it look like stake
building is going on. I've traded this one for more than three years and made a
right few quid - took a couple of losses along the way but generally it's been a
good one.
Highly risky but my buy at 18.5p is looking good with a rise to over 22p
so far. Some kind of stakebuilding is going on which could squeeze the price
higher. The long-term chart shows 24p as the level to break through for big
gains.
All the oils going well - my decision to stick to
Burren is paying off and my
decision to get back into Tullow
also looks good.
So that was Monday's update - moving onto Today:
Highway Insurance is going for it
today with a 2p rise and I bought a few more (now got rather a lot) at 63.5p.
This one should go up to about 75p where I rate it fair value. Only a matter of
time I think.
Looks like so far at any rate getting back into
CSR and
Hunting has paid off as both have
risen nicely against a falling market.
Burren and
Tullow are still going very
nicely and I'm glad I kept the faith.
MTI Instruments is down but only because one of the market-makers has
gone awol.
Vanco is rising nicely -
Telecom Plus had a good up leg
yesterday afternoon and holds well at higher levels.
VP heads back over 200p - I
haven't done too much damage with the shorts so all in all a happy bunny today.
Friday 21th November
Pete writes: 'I noticed you
have pulled the plug on a few good companies today. This is a difficult thing to
do especially when you know you have good investments. You wanted to know what
some of your readers are doing, well here goes.
I have some of the stock that you also hold but I will stick with Dragon,
Hunting, BGT and LLoyds. I could take some gains from all three as I have had
them for some time but as a long term investor in these stocks I will ride this
one out a bit longer.
Luckily I halved a some of my investments about 1 month ago as my
portfolio looked too heavy in certain stocks. This has worked well for me but I
am still 9% down from then.
I view this decline as a good time to pick up some more stock namely
Costain, Time Strip, Indigovision and Surface Transform.
As per normal no one really knows what is going on and its down to a
personal feel for the markets. You just have to be strong and read the notes you
made when you bought the stock not be too greedy or blinkered.'
Good mail, Pete with food for thought - I have bought back at lower prices
today, more in a minute!
So I intend to trade a lot more than earlier in the year to try and ride
the volatility up and down. Right from the off this morning I knew I wanted to
buy back a few core holdings. So I've bought a few - with the view that if the
market tanks again I'll get out fast.
First off was Tullow Oil (TLW)
but I hit lucky here - I got 2,000
shares at 224.9p and a
£30 spread long at
227p in the first few minutes of
trading which was rather handy as the share went ballistic at 8.30am when a bid
was announced for Paladin. Target 260.
Stop 210.
Now the Paladin bid is in, the smaller line oil stocks could well be in
demand and I think it's worth holding on to them - so I intend to hold on to
Dragon Oil (Well timed buy yesterday!) and of course my fave, Burren Energy
which is soaring today.
I also added Aminex (AEX)
again (made good money on this the last two years) because that one has really
broken through today and could be a good bid target. Bought
25,000 at
18.5p Target
22p, stop
16p.
My other buys today are simply shares that were marked down too much
yesterday and looked bargains. So I got back into
Hill and Smith (HILS) grabbing
4,000 shares at a bargain
193.87p. Target
220p, stop
185p. Brilliant growing company
and unfairly marked down yesterday.
Also back into Vanco (VAN).
I bought 1,500 shares at
469.45p. Target
510p, stop
465p. I've made tons out of this
over the last few years and here's a chance to get in again at a decent price!
I considered buying back CSR and Hunting but am waiting on those - they
both look marked down too much.
Yesterday's buy Telecom Plus
looks strong and it wouldn't take much to see it up back at 150p. And
yesterday's buy Dragon is going
well!
Considering the market is up well today the shorts I got into yesterday
are doing OK and I'm not down too much - happy to have them as a balance.
Surprised that MTL
Instruments is not up today but the MM's are only offering 500 online which
shows when it moves it could shoot up bigtime.
I also reduced some of my personal positions a bit more to have less
exposure to longs in case of a sudden new downturn - and also to get some cash
together to buy bargains if they appear.
Looking back on yesterday's buys I am still happy with them though the
time is not right to just buy and hold and I will ruthlessly sell if the market
dips further.
Costain is picking up a bit
- this one was supposed to be safe! Just shows you nothing is safe - I can only
presume there is a persistent seller. Often when these go away share prices can
rocket.
The oils continue to be very volatile - up a lot one day, down the next.
Burren is a firm hold though -
Tullow is now at lower levels
though Dragon has been hit the
most. I would still be a reluctant seller at these lower levels.
All in all my current view is to keep stakes lower than normal, have some
shorts open in case of a crash and keep very strictly to stop losses. You must
at this sort of time.
Wendesday 19th November
In fact I think most investors today feel like Christopher after he banged
his head this morning - we have sore heads and want to cry... come on, we're
British damn it, keep a stiff upper lip out there!!
So what did I do? I put my Mr Spock hat on and had a good unemotional look
at 8am and here's what happened.
I think this is the busiest day and the most amount of trading in one
morning I have ever done - I've basically reduced all my positions - most by
half - and sold off nearly 150,000 pounds worth of stock personally in both
normal and spread positions. I've also started opening shorts.
As I've said many times it's very hard to know when the market trend is
really changing long-term and today could easily see a bounce and so could
tomorrow.
However I think with the amount of money I have in, logically, it seems
right to take money off the table. I also feel it's sensible to keep some money
in and some positions open, though reduced. I guess I'm hedging my bets for now,
again to me this seems sensible.
The point also of taking money off is the ability to have the
cash/firepower ready to steam in if the market were to really go down. There's a
lot of money to be made in crashes by both shorting and also coming in as a
buyer at bargain levels.
I expect the rest of the year to be volatile and because of this, expect
to increase the number of trades I make.
So where to start for the website positions? I've taken some losses and
some profits - and even bought something back that went down far too much and
crazily bought something else too!!
Let's start with that one - I sold off my two most recent
Dragon Oil (DGO) positions at
148.05 to take a loss of
£528 on the 171 and
£435 on the 163 but then it
suddenly tanked all the way to 135 - even given today's market that looked
crazily oversold - so I bought back
3,750 Dragon Oil shares at 135.9p.
Target 160, stop
130.
That proved the exact right timing as the shares within a few minutes
rattled back over 140. I've kept my original position in Dragon at the 109 and
my spread position at 111.
My other buy is a return to
Telecom Plus (TEP) - I bought
3,750 shares at 134.9p.
Target 150, stop
118. Yes, I know that sounds
crazy on a day like this!
The company's had a torrid time getting into energy at the wrong time,
failing to hedge and so suffering the market's wrath - we don't know the extent
of the gas losses yet which makes it risky.
However the shares have been very strong in recent days and are heading
higher despite market weakness which makes them a buy in my book. The company
has just announced calls to most popular destinations abroad are now only 2p a
minute - 50% below many rivals.
This should really help distributors to start selling. Institutions
recently snapped up shares at over 200p and they must have run a slide rule over
the company. So a speculative but possibly lucrative buy.
I took losses AND profits in
Hunting! God knows why it's been hit so badly but I can't do anything
about it and I expect to get back in again as I really think it's a solid
company. Further on there is a mail from a reader regarding Hunting.
So a loss of £1,119 on my
312 position and a profit of
£811 on my
235 position. As Arnie says, I'll
be back! There seems little reason for the drop except market conditions.
I sold Hill and Smith which
went to the stop loss and sold for 2.05
to take a loss of £301. Again, I
believe it's a great company and I'll be back in but for now the stop loss wins.
Dignity was sold at
421.922 to take a loss of
£732. However I've kept the
spreadbet position at 380. Again, great company but again, is being marked down
to stop loss levels.
I took nice profits in my Croda
spreadbet, getting 426 to take a
brilliant profit of £1,700, I
think it was time to take profits here even if the market was going up as I've
got nearly 100 points out of it.
Profits taken in Derwent Valley
at 1249 - profit on the £10
position is £360 and profit on
the fiver position is £620 to
make a total profit of £980.
Again the uptrend is stalled here and time to come out.
Tullow hit the stop loss and is
sold at 222.02 to take a loss of
£867.
I love the look of CSR but
keeping emotion out of it I sold at
627.5 to take a loss of £786.
This is tempered by the fact I made thousands on it a few weeks ago and I plan
to get back in before the Nov 2nd results which I expect to be good.
I've held onto Burren as
that is a very long-term investment - easy of course for me as I'm in at 239 and
466.
Also held onto MTL Instruments
which I like a lot. Highway Insurance
is well undervalued and I see no reason to sell.
All of which shenanigans brings the score on the door to a loss for the
site of £1,277 which really isn't too bad!
I've opened four shorts to re-position the portfolio. - The first is
Provident Financial (PFG) - made
money shorting this already this year and back in today for
£15 a point at
599. Target
550, stop
620.
The second - you have to be in at least one retail short - is
Blacks Leisure (BSLA) where I've
done a £20 downbet at
385.5 - Target
350, stop
405. The reasons here, I think
are obvious - a real stop loss in place here in case of a bid.
The third is Dairy Crest (DCG)
for £20 at
470 - target
440 stop
480 - a bloody awful looking
chart is my reason for shorting this one.
And the horrid chart is also the reason for shorting the fourth,
Meggitt (MGGT) for
£20 at
303. Target 275, stop 310.
Onto the mailbag, reader Sue
mailed this interesting tale: 'Last Friday I emailed Hunting after seeing a
horrible fall on ADVFN's monitor which prompted backwardisation.
I'm unsure as to the rules about forwarding this type of company
information, but thought perhaps a call or email from you might help you and
others who read your website.'
Thanks Sue, no this is not inside info so no reason not to publish. I do
think HTG is a goodie and it'll come up but I sold short-term for reasons
outlined above. Tuesday 18th November
I particularly wanted to check that broadband internet would work from my
laptop! Because if it didn't, the seminar wouldn't be worth holding as obviously
I want to do some live trading and show the best way to trade using the free
websites and ADVFN and how to make the most of the Squaregain platform.
Anyway, the hotel turned out to be very good and professional - the room
for the London Naked Trader Seminar is fine and there's a good big screen to
project the internet onto which means there will be no problems looking at the
live market as it unfolds during the day.
The screen is large so anyone will be able to see what I'm doing on the
day - now I've seen the room and the projector I'm getting excited - I think
it's going to be a good day!
It's amazing how many seminars go on there - Vodaphone was having a big
one and there were serious-looking blokes discussing the latest technology.
One company looked like they were trying to sell Vodaphone some kind of
new funky text message system. Anyway it reminded me how glad I am to be out of
the rat race.
Onto the mailbag - an interesting one - can anyone help reader
Ralph?
'We (wife and 2 young kids) have moved from Surrey down to the West
Country. We sold our house 18 months ago and have been renting a place near
Plymouth. I'm in IT and work half and half between home/London.
I would be grateful if you had any info from anyone else who has
considered or undertaken this so we could avoid some of the pitfalls.
Let me know if you can give Ralph any pointers!
And now a rant from a reader you may enjoy (written last week when things
were going tits up)
'What the hell's going on out there? The stock market seems to be hitting
all the already cheap, good shares? Burren Energy at around 750? CSR at 630? And
then low and behold they move on to Hunting and murder it back to what it was
months ago?
Of course in the longer term there's always a caveat. Could this be the
start of a bear market. I'm not sure what you think but to me when you get
increased volatility like this, a big sell off followed by an equally massive
rise it seems to signal a change in direction.'
Phew - the mail went on for a lot longer - but I guess many will feel the
same way this reader does. The thing is when you've been trading a few years
you've seen it all before and I certainly have - as long as the fundamentals are
still right I'll stick with shares unless it's fairly obvious we are in a major
crash.
CSR is beginning to fight
back - a tick over 650 would be nice especially if 650 could prove a good floor.
Not long to go before a quarterly statement which may move the shares.
Highway Insurance which I
have an awfully large holding in is progressing very nicely and I'm now more
then ten per cent up. Another ten or 20% to come in due course. Some good buying
over the last few days.
Costain looks like it might
start to move up again at last. Market-makers are still trying to scare
recent buyers of MTL Instruments
out of the stock by dropping the price and widening the spread. Past Commentaries
Wendesday 24th August to Monday 17th October
Wednesday 20th July 2005 to Tuesday 23rd August 2005
Friday 20th May 2005 to Monday 18th July 2005
Friday 15th April 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 03rd March 2005 to Wendesday, 13th April 2005
Monday 31th January 2005 to Friday, 25th February 2005
Wendesday 29th December 2005 to Friday 30th January 2005
Thursday 4th November to Friday 24th December
Monday 11th October to Thursday 4th November
Friday 13th August to Friday 8th October
Monday 05th July 2004 to Friday 30th July
Tuesday Monday 21th June 2004 to Friday 2nd July 2004
Tuesday 01st June 2004 to Friday 18th June 2004
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