Financial Spread Betting News

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

Wall Street duly fell further last night as tired bulls were pushed out of positions, there is not enough momentum to push markets out of their current trading ranges and with oil pushing slightly higher yesterday US stocks wilted under the pressure.

FTSE is called down 10 at 5334-36 and with Next and Kingfisher reporting further weakness in consumer spending the likelyhood is that the markets will struggle to rally in the face of US weakness.

Next has reported flat earnings for the first half which in the circumstances can be considered a good performance but with expansion priced into the shares much more in the line of no increases in sales may start to wiegh on the share price. The shares closed yesterday at 1490 rallying 30p on the day but the initial call is for this to be given back on the open with an opening price of around 1465.

Kingfisher continue to look very weak with falling sales forcing a 200M charge and the anouncement of 22 store closures. Profits fell by some 7% in the first half and the shares are now trading at the lows for two years. The market is looking to open some 6p lower at around 238.

In the currencies an overnight rally in the dollar has hit Cable and the Euro with Clients short from yesterday looking happy with the result. Forex has been quiet for a few days and the move this morning may give us a little more fun. Sterling may have a bit of volatility when the Retail Sales numbers come out at 9.30. The expectation is for +0.3 MOM which would at least be positive but not enough to push retail shares higher. Clients continue to sell any rallies in retail stock and up to now they havn't been wrong!

Oil bounced from the recent low trading range to push back above $65 in the October Nymex. At the start of the trading session client were long but by the close these positions had been closed out and dealers were setting up small shorts. At 65.15 -65.23 the market is now looking for further poor production news to push us higher.

Ladbrokes tipped as favourite in the race for Sporting Index

LADBROKES, one of Britain's biggest bookmakers, has emerged as a key contender to buy Sporting Index, the spread betting group, for up to £70 million.

Duke Street Capital, the private equity owner of Sporting Index, has whittled the auction down to a handful of bidders and set next week as the deadline by which they must table their second-round offers.

The shortlist is believed to comprise Ladbrokes, which is owned by Hilton Group, and two private equity firms. Bridgepoint is thought to be one of the contenders.

Duke Street, which is working with NM Rothschild, the investment bank, is expected to enter exclusive discussions with one party after next week's updated offers. The originally mooted asking price was closer to £100 million.

Analysts said that Ladbrokes appeared to have the best chance of winning the auction. The company would have an advantage over private equity rivals by being able to cross-sell its own betting products to Sporting Index punters while offering Sporting Index to Ladbrokes customers.

There is also a historical link between the two companies in the figure of John Jarvis, Sporting Index's chairman, who was once chairman of Hilton International, the hotel arm of Hilton Group. Mr Jarvis left Hilton to set up Jarvis Hotels in 1990.

Ladbrokes, which abandoned a spread-betting foray in the 1990s, recently teamed up with a rival firm, Cantor Index, to offer financial fixed-odds bets.

Duke Street backed the £53 million management buyout of Sporting Index in December 2002. The deal was led by Richard Glynn, the company's chief executive.

Duke Street is also preparing to sell the Lil-lets feminine-care brand for about £100 million, after hiring Citigroup to conduct a "strategic review" of the business. A flotation or refinancing have not been ruled out as alternatives to a sale, however.

IG reports spread of interest in oil betting

IG GROUP, Britain's biggest spread-betting company, has said gambling on oil prices had replaced stock market movements as the favourite flutter.

The company, which owns IG Index and re-floated in London in May, said yesterday that customers had increasingly been turned off the stock market because of a lack of volatility. In a trading statement, IG said current trading was strong as it posted a 40 per cent rise in underlying annual profit.

IG, which allows investors to speculate on currencies, interest rates, shares and indexes, revealed pre-tax earnings of £35.1 million in the year to the end of May. Turnover was up 25 per cent to £62.3m.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

With every major indices trading at or near recent highs clients are taking the opportunity to set up some speculative shorts. The Dow is again struggling to stay above 10700, the DAX ditto above 5000, the S&P above 1240.0 and the FTSE above 5375. With the Trade Balance out this afternoon in the States the catalyst for a move higher could be just around the corner but at the moment with such heavy resistance the safer trade appears to be to sell with a tight stop. The FTSE is called at 5366-68 off 10 but the DAX is unchanged at 4989-91.

Antofagasta comes in this morning with First half figures showing revenue increased by 77% far above the 55% expected. The increase in revenue is mainly due to the increase in the price of copper but is also a result of a side product, Molybdenum, which has doubled in price in the last year. (and before you ask, No, I havn't a clue what Molybdenum is used for!). Antofagasta is generally a share for those with strong nerves as it has regular trading ranges of 30-40%. The share is likely to open higher this morning but will find it difficult to break above the psycological level of 1500.

Computacenter has released some pretty poor income figures for the first half of £2.1M profit down from 19.9M. This collapse in revenue was on the back of a fall of only 6.5% sales and will put the frightners on some investors. The retail outlook is not exactly bouncing in the second half of the year and business investment is at it lowest since records began. Early calls are for the shares to come in 15p lower at 190p.

French Connection and John Wood Group also release first half figures.

Sterling and the Euro having attempted a small bounce in early trading this morning are now back at last nights closing levels. With the UK releasing CPI data this morning we could be in for a rough ride as a slowing economy hits a rising inflation rate. If CPI starts pipping higher the BOE will find it difficult to raise rates in the face of poor growth numbers and the slack will have to be taken up with a weak currency. Cable is quoted at 1.8188-91. Euroland appears to be finally breaking out of its malaise, and with a production industry to back up its economy (unlike the UK) the currency, in the long run, should outperform the pound. EUR/GBP is quoted at 0.6753-0.6756.

Commodities are quiet this morning with little pressure in the energy markets in eother direction. November Brent Oil closed above the long term support trend line at $62.00 having traded below it during the session. Gold is stable at the higher levels and clients are long looking for a retest of the 460 highs and Silver is stable above $7 having tested the down side in recent weeks.

With Japan's Koizumi winning a landslide victory over the w/e the Nikkei has responded with a stunning 200 point rally this morning. This has combined with the Dow and the S&P rally of Friday evening to cause the European Markets to be called higher this morning. Dax is called up 25 points at 5029-31 which means that it has decisively broken through the 5000 level and the FTSE is called at 5372-5374 up 15 on the close on Friday.

Clients continue to set up shorts in the indices, battling against the tide, as the belief that these highs cannot be sustained is tested in the fire.

Insurers may come under pressure as the worry over weakly capitalised underwriters was given a push by the FSA's admission that it had made enquiries over liabilities from many companies.

Punch Taverns and M&B announced a mutual bid for Spirit of around £2.5B. pirit has about £2.3B of debt which may give the impression that the company is a forced seller. Punch are not renowned for overpaying for their acquisitions so the shares are unlikely to fall far this morning on the deal potential. The shares closed at 820 and are called to come in at around 810-815.

The Dollar is stronger this morning versus Europe on little news. The victory for Koizumi will encourage more buying of US Bonds from the Japanes Post Office Bank (the cause of the election in the first place) which has in the past been the buyer of last resort of Japanese Government debt. Japans economy grew at 3.3% in the last qtr three times the forecast which means that Japanese interest rates may finally be about to come off 0%.

Oil is quiet after last weeks sell off and clients are slightly long looking for a bounce. The price is currently 64.22-64.30 up 20 cents overnight. Gold continues to track higher and the close on Friday pushed it through the strong resistence at 450.00 the next target is 458 and clients are holding onto longs betting on a continuation of the move.

A Quiet morning to go with a quiet evening yesterday the indices are being called a tad higher this morning on the small rally at the close in the US and on the 130 point move in the Nikkei overnight. Yesterday was one of the more boring in price terms as a general drift in the FTSE probably started by England wickets falling in the late morning session was stalled by the Struass/Flintoff stand! The call this morning is for 5344-46 up 5 but the market is still in high territory here and we will need some good news soon to hold on to these levels. Wall Street is likewise up some 8 points at 10602-10606 on little news.

Not much from the Equity sectors today but Marshall Plc (MSLH) have come in with doubled revenue for the year, mainly on asset disposals, but also on a 7% increase in sales due to increased government contracts. Traders are wary of this as State spending constraints are likely to rear their head in the near future as Gordon struggles to balance his numbers. The shares closed at 297 and are looking to open unchanged at 297.0-298.8 for the september contract.

The Rentokill saga lumbers on as 'Sir' Robinson puts his, shall we say rather unique proposition, to the share holders. His only supporters appear to be the American holders of a 15% bloc, Franklin Templeton, and other US hedge funds but this is unlikely to be enough to swing the issue his way. As an aside I would like to recommend myself as chairman of any FTSE 100 company that will have me and all I ask is a huge salary and a 2.8% stake (payable in tranches) but unattached to any performance criteria. All offers gratefully accepted.

Currencies are quiet with dealers keeping hold of their shorts in the EUR/USD in the face of the small rally this morning. Sterling is likewise moribund in the 1.8350-1.8450 range after the Katrina induced rally versus the dollar last week. Cable is quoted at 1.8393-96 and the Euro at 1.2434-37.

Oil inventories showed high levels of stocks and this caused an initial sell off down to the $63 level but bargain hunters and short closing pushed it back to the trading levels of the previous day.

Its BOE rate day but will there be anybody who is interested in listening... With the final test starting today all eyes and most dealing room TV's will be tuned in to the action at the Oval. That said the chances are that the decision will go down to no change as the inflation signs are not encouraging. All the indices closed near highs yesterday but a small rebound in Oil and a pull back in the Nikkei has taken the shine off just a little this morning with Wall Street called down some 20 points at 10597-10601 and the FTSE's opening shout down 5 at 5362-64. Low volumes are normally associated with sliding markets and today may be no different as traders close out long positions, take their profits, and wait for the next move.

Intercontinental (IHG) missed estimates with pre tax profits at £101m which should leave the shares looking weak on the open. Early calls are for the open to be at 715-720 down some 1.5%.

Party Gaming although coming in (earlier this week) for one of the more spectacular croppers seen this year will still easily join the FTSE 100 along with Yo-Yo stock Cairn Energy. The listing may put a bolster under the valuations of PartyGaming as the P/E looks reasonable at this price and given the cash generative abilities of the company the Dividend yield should be impressive.

A quiet day yesterday in currencies followed by a quiet morning today. Sterling remains reasonably strong (though off from the recent highs) but our clients are starting to build shorts at these prices looking for a return below the 1.83 long term pivot. Cable is quoted at 1.8383-86 up 20 pips. The Euro was weak yesterday as bulls were caught out by the early rally yesterday morning which appear to break to a new high only to come sharply back off. Euro opens this morning up 20 at 1.2443-46.

As mentioned before, Oil has bounced slightly this morning up 75c to 65.03-11 from the lows reached yesterday evening. The feeling of our clients is that there may now be too much crude around for the depleted refining capacity to deal with. The spread between October and November delivery contracts is being watched closely as clients begin to short Oct and Buy Nov currently trading at about 80 cents.

With yesterdays holiday in the states clients would have been excused for thinking that Europe would put in a quiet day. As it happened the DAX rallied 70 points the CAC put on 20 and the FTSE managed to rally even though Oil had fallen some $2 since the close on Friday. The Bulls are having a field day with bid speculation rife across the continent. FTSE is quoted at 5345-5347 up 5 and Wall Street is called up 35 at 10492-10496.

In the UK the announcement of an intereest in Scottish Power from Eon (having been rumoured for days) has sent the shares up to 575 some 15% higher than last Tuesday. The shares are now quoted at 569.2-570.3 with two way business at this level. Unless a rival bidder comes in there would not appear to be much more to play for in this share. EXEL continues to look strong at 1187.0-1189.5 as the deal from Deutsche Post is finalised.

Party Gaming has caused grief in our clients with a 25% fall this morning on far worse than expected profits. Although the revenue figure was up 25% investors were hoping for more than double this number and with comments from the management that growth in numbers is slowing it would appear that the only winners here are likely to be the IPO management team. The shares are currently at 123.2-123.9 having hit 112.0 on the open.

Sterling is giving up some of it's recent gains versus the dollar although it remains strong against the Euro this morning. The Euro has now given up some 4% since early August and if resistance versus sterling at 1.4762 to 74 is breached and held on a close the pound looks good for a return to the 1.50 area.

Commodities were closed yesterday but Brent traded a dollar lower and Nymex is matching that this morning at66.52-66.60. Gold and Silver look to be opening unchanged this afternoon but with the pressure off Oil and the dollar strengthening slightly metals will probably come in slightly lower.

FSA warns on investment firm

The Financial Services Authority warned consumers about an unauthorised investment firm that is believed to have promised people returns of 10% a month but had spent the money on activities such as spread-betting.

The watchdog said Henry Ofili, of Stoke Newington, north London, was running an illegal investment business, Adams & Adams Investment Services. There was evidence that he took at least £120,000 from about 25 people.

People who invested with him will not have access to the financial services compensation scheme or the financial services ombudsman since he was unregistered. The FSA is asking those approached by Mr Ofili to get in touch to help with its inquiry.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

When will our clients stop selling Oil? It is not often that I rise to actually make any outright recommendation but..... Trying to pick the high of the oil price is a mugs game. If you want to sell wait for a definite break of the upward trend lines before getting involved and in the meantime either stay out or buy on dips.

The Indices are looking for a strong day today as the shock of the oil rally starts to dissipate. The FTSE tried to open lower but the weight of buying on the off soon took it 30 points higher at 5292-94. The main movers are, unsurprisingly, oil stocks as investors start to think interims of a permanently higher oil price. Traders who have been shorting BP and Shell over the last few weeks have now turned round, taken their profits, and gone long. With BP bouncing off support at 610 yesterday the potential for a rally to break through the resistance at 630 and possibly move back to the highs of 660. Rolling Daily BP is quoted at 629.2-630.3

The damage done by Hurricane Katrina although devastating to the areas effect is not in financial terms as great as Hurricane Andrews. The salutary effect of the disaster will probably boost insurers as stories of uninsured ruined families will encourage a greater take up and presumably higher premiums.

Metals remain weak with Gold following Silver's falls of the last week with a $6 fall yesterday but dealers continue to hold longs looking for a relief rally if pressure elsewhere is relieved. Rolling Gold is quoted at 432.6-433.2 up a dollar overnight and December Silver is fixed at 6.76-6.79 unchanged from Monday.

In the currency markets rumours of heavy buying of the Dollar by hedge funds over the past few weeks has brough a few of our clients into joining them.

The problem is that if we know about it, it is probably because the Funds want us to know. Thus giving the market a little push into which they can offload positions. Am I cynical? I hear you say. Years of listening to rumours has made me so! Euro is quoted at 1.2211-14 down 15 overnight and Cable is at 1.7839-1.7842 down 25.

UK bank holidays have a habit of coming at exactly the wrong time. With oil opening $4 higher yesterday morning the Dow called 100 points lower and the European indices opening 1% down it was a case of calling all dealers in on the sunniest day of the year. Sometimes the boss has to be a nasty bugger.

After yesterdays rally Wall Street is called slightly down at 10445-49. Factory orders and consumer confidence are the US figures this afternoon and after the impact of the Durable Goods number last week traders will be cautious about holding positions.

Oil is now the contract that all other markets are watching. If oil costs more people have less to spend on everything else. In Europe, where the actual price of crude makes up only a small percentage of the final forecourt price, the economic impact will be muted but in the US, Japan and the rest of the world the effect on GDP growth could be more harmful. October Nymex if slightly higher this morning at 67.80-88 in nervous trading with 50 cent moves occurring at the drop of a hat.

Dealers were caught out by, firstly, the fall in the Dow then, when Oil came off its highs, were hit by the subsequent rally. All in all, when combined with their oil losses, Monday was not a good day for our clients. Even currencies seemed perverse with an initial rally in Sterling taking out weekend shorts followed by a Dollar rally late on which subsequently damaged the longs. Truly not a day for the faint hearted.

Saint-Gobain have said that they will not increase the offer for BPB and so punters will now have to wait to see whether enough holders will be tempted to sell. A failure to acquire the necessary holding could send the shares sharply lower but knowing this investors will probably take the money and run. BPB is quoted at 731.0-732.7 unchanged overnight.

BSkyB, rumoured to be interested in a stake in Formula One, has denied this probably much to the relief of Share holders for whom the only impact that Formula One appears to have had on investors has been one of the smell of burning capital. BskyB is at 562.7-563.8 down 1p.

Currencies are showing little enthusiasm to break out of the current trading range of 1.2150 -1.2350 for the Euro and 1.7900-1.8150 for Cable although the momentum has turned in favour of the USD once more. Euro is quoted at 1.2222-25 and Sterling at 1.7912-15. Yen is looking weaker as the higher oil price will necessitate the purchase of more dollars. The resistance at 111.00 to 111.15 is being tested as I write. A break through and close above here could move the price back into the 113.00-111.40 trading range.

Punters aim to cash in even if house prices fall

It was not long ago that dinner parties in the south-east were dominated by guests trying to out-do each other with claims about how much their homes had risen in value.

No longer. The market has cooled and yesterday Hometrack's August house price survey reported an average fall in prices of 0.1pc - the 14th in a row.

Naturally with interest in house prices high, spread betting companies have set up markets to enable people to speculate. Both IG Index and rival Cantor run spreads on the housing market, using pricing data provided by mortgage lender Halifax.

IG now reckons interest rates, currently at 4.5pc, could be down to 4pc by the end of the year. Could this reignite the market? Not if the spreads are anything to go by. The mid-price of IG's spread suggests that the average UK house price is due to be 2.8pc cheaper by June 2006 (the table shows the spreads for nationwide house prices for the quarter ending December 31 and June 31, 2006).

However, it is the regional breakdown that speculators really like to get their teeth into. Here IG's spreads suggest Scottish house prices will enjoy a 6.2pc rise over the same period while East Anglia will show a 3.7pc fall.

The bets work like this. If you think prices will rise by more than the spread by, say, December 31, you buy the spread. As with any spread bet you can close your position and take profits if you buy the spread and it rises by selling the spread at a higher level. The reverse is true if you sell the spread. The last day of trading is the end of the quarter on which the punter is betting although bets are not settled until the official data is released by Halifax.

In total, IG offers 48 different markets over the next four quarters, covering 12 regions of the UK. Rival Cantor has two markets for average UK and London prices over the next five quarters.

Could spread bets be a way to protect yourself against a crash? Well, theoretically. Selling the spread would produce a profit if house prices fell. It would be possible to link the size of your bet to the value of your house, so if your house started to fall in value, your spread bet would cushion the blow.

However, short of selling your house, you would have to have enough cash to pay the bookmaker if prices were to rise, leaving your bet in the red. Also, the difficulty with these markets is that they only cover large regions of the country, such as the south- east or the north-west, as well as the national picture.

As IG's Will Armitage says: "These prices can't be a perfect hedge for a homeowner as each abode is unique and nobody lives in the perfect average house."

It is a fair point. While prices may shoot ahead in most parts of the south-east, that will not do you much good if the local council is planning to build a tip near your des res.

Cantor's David Buik says his company would like to be able to offer a much wider range of spreads covering individual districts. There is much greater volatility in smaller regions but at present the necessary data to enable the bookmaker to calculate winnings and losses for this type of bet is not available

Mr Buik says: "It would be beneficial to everybody to find an arbitrator who could offer the agreed price on a more parochial basis because local pricing is so important for individuals

"We are still looking and would be interested to hear from anyone who could supply the data."

Millionth trade made on Global Trader

[Johannesburg, 25 August 2005] - Five-year-old online financial trading institution Global Trader recorded its millionth trade today.

Stephen Nefdt, a trader who owns his own IT consultancy, placed the millionth trade at 7.40am on the dollar yen.

Global Trader offers a spread trading and a contracts for difference (CFDs) execution service to institutional and private clients investing in both domestic and offshore markets, the company said in a statement. Its recently launched CFD platform is described as the only online trading platform which allows for instantaneous execution, it said.

Founded in SA in 2000, Global Trader has developed a reach into Europe, North America and Asia. The company conducts over 300 000 trades per year, worth over $5 billion per annum, for clients in 26 countries, said the company.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

After the excitement of Wednesday night dealers came in hoping for something to get their teeth into but once the european markets had opened (lower to reflect the US falls) that was about it for the day. Indices, Currencies, Equities and even Oil closed little changed at the end of the day from the opening at 8.

Wall Street is exactly unchanged this morning at 10448-52 and with only the Michigan Consumer confidence figure this afternoon to liven things up we ar not exactly expecting fireworks the figure is expected to come in at 92.5 pretty much the same as last month. The UK may see some action at 9.30 from the release of the GDP data which is forecast at 0.5% (YOY 1.8%) but with the Cricket starting up again at 10.30 and with the late summer bank holiday most dealing rooms will be pretty deserted this afternoon.

No major corporate news this morning but clients are buying across the board as the feeling of optimism in UK stocks continues after yesterdays worries.

The minor dollar weakness of the last few days is continued today with Cable and Euro up 40 pips a piece. Sterling strength in the face of poor economic data is attracting short term Bulls as weak Bears start to be squeezed. Cable has traded in a 1 cent range for the whole week which is the tightest trading range for over a year. The current market perception that 1.80'ish is the pivot point of the current trading range (and with momentum and long term moving averages flattening out) is making determined breaks difficult to maintain.

Commodity markets are quiet this morning with Oil drifting on Ecuadors labour settlement and the News that Hurricane Katrina will miss the rigs. Silver is slipping with the september contract breaking to new lows for the contract. Yesterdays close below 6.85 at 6.84, if confirmed today, would be a worrying development as dealers are long anticipating a return to the $7.25/7.60 levels.

Wall street finally broke out of the trading range last night as oil jitters coupled with the earlier Durable Goods figure left investors feeling a touch nervous. The recent perception was that dealers were happy to be long as they considered the probability of a break to the upside a greater probability than the down. Clients bought heavily at the 10520 level in the Dow and have been left nursing losses as the market slid to lows not seen since 7th July (London Bomb Day). The Wall Street quote this morning is unchanged overnight at 10434-38 as european dealers come in to assess the damage. The FTSE is called at 5251-53 down 25 on the close but with oil pushing strongly higher BP and Shell may prop the indices for the time being.

Rentokill's figures were so bad that one wonders why there has not been a profit warning! Of course the perverse market reactions of recent times may cause the shares to jump this morning but the reason given for the fall (increased competition) does not bode well. The shares closed at 162.25.

Dollar weakness overnight has put the Euro up at 1.2312-15 with clients happy to buy more at these prices. The Durable Goods numbers has put a possible spoke in the Feds ultimate high on rates whilst the German IFO index is, conversely, showing good strength indicating a possible hike in Euro rates early next year.

Oil is at the highs (again) dealers continue to try to pick a turn and our clients are still very short and caught. A pullback is always on the cards but in reality the Bulls have the ball and it will take a definite (identifiable) piece of good production news to stop the rally. Nymex for Ost is quoted at 67.40-48 up another 18 cents.

The quietest day that Capital Spreads have had for a while with many dealers off for their holidays. Wall Street tried an early rally followed by a mid afternoon fall both of which failed leaving the market pretty much unchanged by the close. This morning is no different with the Wall Street quote at 10569-73 and most clients happy to leave it there. The FTSE is being called a couple lower at 5313-15 as impetus to the upside begins to run out of steam.

Persimmon (PSN) has come in with slightly better numbers than expected with profits at 162M bs expected 156M. House price inflation has ground to a halt over the past year and the easy profits of the last decade may be difficult to continue. House building projects generally take quite a few years from conception and Persimmon have benefitted from the fact that the finished article (the house) has increased dramatically in value from site acquisition time. House builders have been complaining for some time that the cost of new sites is becoming prohibitive, and if house prices slip even slightly they may find that selling becomes ever more difficult. The share price (as with all builders) reflects this investor worry with P/E at 7.0 Sept Persimmon is quoted at 790.5-792.4.

Currencies have started very cautiosly this morning with the Dollar unchanged vs everything. Sterling seems stuck to the 1.80 level with attempts to move this way or that over the last few days failing. General client opinion is negative on the pound but not agressively so.

Oil attempted to push up to $67 yesterday afternoon but the selling pressure when it hits these levels has proved too much at the moment. The short term moving averages are beginning to turn and unless Iran actually does something dramatic it is beginning to look quite cold up here. Oct Nymex is quoted at 65.72-65.80.

The US indices experienced some oil indigestion on Friday with the soaring black stuff causing a pull back from early gains. The weekend has brought a more sanguine feel to the market and the Dow is currently some 40 points higher at 10599-10603. UK stocks are unlikely to set the world alight today with almost no news, good or bad, to whet the appetite. The FTSE is called unchanged at 5311-13 and the DAX similarly unchanged at 4929-31.

WPP is likely to come I with profits up some 25% at £250M. Reports also suggest a total revenue rise of some 20% to £2.4B with bottom line only up 25% this would imply a hefty increase in costs and the markets may take a dim view if these numbers prove correct the shares closed at 602.5 and are called little changed this morning. The increase in Chinese revenue (expected at 20%) will be the most closely inspected portion of WPP's release as any strength or weakness here could give indications of future performance.

Sterling is attempting to put on an early rally but sellers are coming in at the 1.7990 level which may limit any advances this morning. Cable is quoted at 1.7975-78.

Oil is strong again this morning at 65.67-75 but will need further bad production news to push it much higher. Refining is apparently running at 95% capacity (with the temporary loss of BP's texas refinary this will no doubt be tighter still) and if this continues it will not be long before there is nowhere for the delivery of the unrefined product to go. The decline of the Oil price in the last few days before delivery of the Sept contract shows that, although dealers are happy to buy the market higher, there is less demand than might be expected for the real product.

Royal Bank of Scotland roar in with a 1.5 Billion investment in China.

Clients are truly split right down the middle on this with almost exactly as many sellers as buyers. The instinctive fear that purchasing a minority stake in what is effectively a government controlled company (and indeed industry) may be an new method of detroying share capital is currently overshadowed by the greater perception that China will be one of the last great areas for banking expansion and a tie in with one of the biggest players should lead to greater things. RBS is currently up 36 at 1642.0-1645.0 (Rolling Bet).

The markets are looking a trifle heavy this morning with all the Europeans coming in lower (although the FTSE has been boosted by RBS) and the US indices is drifting back to yesterdays lower range (Wall Street is at 10534-38 down 15 overnight). The 6% fall in Oil has not had the expected effect on indices as the US data from Tuesday continues to wiegh on sentiment. With the perception now firmly entrenched that the BOE may have been premature in its rate cut a few weeks ago we now have a situation where rate moves higher are being contemplated in virtually all the OECD members. It will prove difficult for equity markets to print new highs until growth expectations outwiegh yield worries.

Currencies have been choppy with sterling first tempting the bulls then the bears several times yesterday. Todays trading range is small and with only retail sales and money supply data due out this is unlikely to change much this morning as weak retail sales should be conteracted by continued strength in money supply.

Oil having broken the short term uptrend yesterday will find some technical support at 62.25 (October Brent) as the high of the previous move but long term support at around 59.50 is unlikely to be tested in the near future so long as Iran keeeps up the sabre rattling. Any threat of suspension from this quarter would have a catastrophic effect on oil prices but the chances of Iran causing such worldwide badwill is still slight (the really big losers from high oil prices are not the West).

Wow! a pretty impressive trading day/night draws to a close. Oil hits new highs, the Dow trades its entire current trading range in one day, the FTSE DAX and Nikkei all hit new 3 three year highs and Sterling and Euro break back above 1.80 and 1.24 respectively versus the dollar.

Now for the bad news, with the US markets pulling back after European close we are calling the DAX down some 30 points at 4958-4960 and the FTSE down 15 at 5361-5363. The BOE is starting to make less accomodative comments on rates and this could have a brake effect on the FTSE. Our 'Gordon' must be rubbing his hands in glee as the extra income from oil and corporate taxes should save his bacon to some extent. And with what are likely to be massive profits from many companies this year he may even be tempted to do another of his 'one off, positively the last, cross my heart' windfall tax raids.

Wall Street is still higher than two days ago and the index is up 25 overnight at 10618-22. Royal Sun beat expectations with £329M. The trading statement was good and asbestos provisions look robust. Investors have been slowly returning to the shares and with a lowly p/e of 9ish if the perception that the management has finally got on top of what were runaway liabilities takes hold the shares could look like the steal of the year at these prices. Early quotes are for unchanged at 93.7-94.5 for December expiry.

As mentioned Sterling is extending the rally of the last few days and clients are riding longs looking for further returns. Cable has now had a 12 day bull run and only a break of the trendline, currently at around 1.7900, will tempt sellers into the light. Sterling is now at 1.7974-77 off the highs but still very solid.

I am not even going to mention Oil except to say that I wish we had never hedged our client positions. Every move up tempts in more sellers, currently to their doom.

Property punters more optimistic

Across the UK, spread betters have become more optimistic about property prices.

Spread betting company IG Index's Scottish clients are predicting the average house price will have risen 2.1% to £109,500 by March next year.

By June, the typical Scottish house is expected to be worth £112,000, 4.4% up on current prices.

"Our clients think house prices have stabilised a bit," said Pete McDermott, head of options at IG Index.

"Three or four months ago people were closing their positions and many were forced to swallow moderate losses as the downturn in reality was not as bad as had been predicted. But there is still an innate bent to go short on the market as most people are long on property already."

Deal4Free Spread Betting Introduces One-Click Dealing

Deal4Free continues to invest in its technology, this remember from a company that was one of the first to aggressively take advantage of the internet. The company has released 'One-Click' which means faster access to trades on their award-winning trading platform MarketMaker®.

Is Speed Important?

Speed on executing a trade is all important in today's fast paced markets but context is also relevant. For example if you're after small quick profits then speed in execution is critical. But if you're the sort of trader or investor that holds a position for a few days or weeks then getting your trades done quickly is not so important. Still, it's nice to have the functionality always available.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

European and US markets attempted to retrace some of Fridays losses early yesterday but by the close had come up against the effects of the rising oil price dragging them back to the same or slightly lower closes. Dealers were quite relaxed on the restricted trading ranges available in the Indices whilst sellers appeared in the FTSE towards the close as four year highs attracted top pickers. The Dow is rallying slightly this morning as traders begin to feel that the oil argument has just about been played out. With the FOMC decision out later today punters are likely to keep their powder dry for this evening or tommorrow. Although the rise of 0.25% is almost certain the reaction of the markets can be very unpredictable and this should make all but the most punchy day traders wary. Wall Street is called at 10561-65 up 25 over night and with the Nikkei putting on almost 150 points the DAX and FTSE should come in unchanged to slightly higher. Our Call on the FTSE is at 5345-47.

Scottish and Newcastle beat estimates with a 10% improvement in profits as cost cutting in the UK and better than forecast income from Russia helped the bottom line. The forecast of heavy advertising spend over the next year should help calm nerves for investors who have watched the shares fall some 8% over the last month (in reverse comparison with the rest of the FTSE). As a bitter drinker myself I just wish that they had a better product than 'John Smiths' on which to spend their advertising pound. The shares are called slightly higher at 470-471.5 rolling daily bet.

Sterling rallied strongly yesterday after the inflation numbers gave a grim warning that the UK could be entering a small patch of Stagflation. The rate cut from the BOE looks even more surprising when you realise that they must have had a preview of this figure. Input inflation of 13% and output of over 3% is not exactly rate cutting time. Cable has rallied to 1.7890-93 with many dealers now happy to stay long looking for a return to the 1.80's.

Ho Hum ....Oil is again at an all time high (yawn). Our Clients contimue to attempt to short it which if this action is copied over much of the private client market is probably one of the reasons for the rally as bears get mercilessly squeezed. Sept Nymex is now at 64.10-18 up another 20 cents overnight. Silver suffered badly as production numbers showed healthy volumes. With Silver now back at $7.00 an ounce down 15 cents yesterday traders are looking for the support at 6.85 to hold and clients are now long expecting a bounce Sept Silver is quoted at 7.00-7.03.

If it wasn't for the FOMC meeting tommorrow we would be looking at a quiet week. With the reporting season dragging into its final days most of the big 'market moving' stocks have been and gone. In general the results announced over the last month have more than come up to expectations and the effect before the end of last week was to leave most of the equity indices at or around their highs for 3 to 4 years. Of course, with the fading of the numbers investors started to look at what was likely to push us any higher in the near term and decided to take a few profit whilst they were there. The Dow having only one major Oil stock component, and with the index designed to give every stock an even(ish) wieghting has performed much worse in recent times to the S&P, FTSE, Nikkei and DAX. With Oil hammering at its highs this state of affairs is unlikely to reverse in the near term and clients remain short of Wall Street and long of S&P. Wall Street is quoted at 10575-79 up 20 from friday and the S&P 1228.8-1229.2 up 2.5.

FTSE is being called up some 3 points this morning 5316-18 but dealing is very light and with only Standard chartered reporting this morning this looks to be a fair call until the US opening this afternonn. A few UK numbers out today are likely to show why manufacturing is suffering so much with input PPI at around 12 % YOY whilst output inflation still languishes at around 2.5%.

Cable (GBP/USD) has performed in a much more stable manner over the last few days trading between 1.7710 and 1.7825 but still remains below the last years trading range. A failure to make progress back towards the 1.80 level soon may bring the bears out again. Cable is quoted at 1.7744-1.7747.

One hates to keep saying the same thing but 'Oil continues to rally' is the comment on everybodies lips as bears are squeezed yet again. Oil stocks, depending on how you measure them, are either healthy or worryingly weak. From the movement of the oil price, traders are finding the latter argument the most persuasive and oil will no doubt continue to rally to new highs. Sept Nymex is now trading at 62.53-61 which makes this monday morning a new record!

Heavy Dividend payments overnight will bring the FTSE in some 10 points lower this morning at 5314-5316 although the failure of the Dow and S&P to break above the resistance last night will probably wiegh on the markets.

The Dow attempted to get above 10700 several times but the late strength in Oil put the Cap on the Bulls. Wall Street is quoted at 10662-66 down some 10 points from the close.

BSKYB came out with a stonking set of finals today as rumours continue to circulate about boardroom disagreements in the Murdoch clan. An increase of 92% above the line will strengthen James Murdochs hand and please the major investors. The shares are expected to open higher again today having had a strong rally in the last few days (Hem Hem). The rolling bet closed last night at 550.8-551.8.

HBOS also announced numbers but this time they have slightly dissappointed investors by missing expectations by a sliver. They have also echoed HSBC's comments yesterday concerning the rising levels of bad debt in the personal loan/card sector. The shares are likely to have a tough opening with early calls for some 10p off from last nights close at 874p.

Sterling has given up some value this morning as punters continue to sell looking for the resistance area of 1.7725-1.7760, which had a concerted attack over the last to days, to mark the near term highs. Clients have gone short of Cable and with the market off 20 this morning are looking comfortable with their positions. Cable is quoted at 1.7685-88. The Euro is benefiting from the perceived change in interest rate outlook as stirrings of growth are detected in Germany and France. EUR/USD is up a touch at 1.2200-1.2203.

Oil continues to grind higher. Bears are being squeezed hard but with reserves looking good (in Europe and the US) for the winter period this could be a matter of 'last man standing' as the market is unlikely to be at these levels in a few months time. Sept Nymex is trading at 62.07-62.15 up another 30c overnight having rallied 40c yesterday. Our clients are 'Short and Caught' which probably puts them in the same hole as many traders.

Traders long of pound and silver, no longer short of indices

Many of the spread betting punters who were short of the Dow and the FTSE over the last two months have now been stopped out, but sentiment has still not moved over to the bullish side.

Bookmakers say that traders tend to be long of individual shares, but split on whether the FTSE and the Dow will succeed in breaking any higher.

IG Index said some clients appear to be looking for the FTSE to fail around the 5350 level.

Foreign exchange continues to be the busiest single area of financial spread betting. Capital Spreads said its clients had been long of the dollar for a couple of weeks, but have now changed position.

Capital said punters are now looking for the pound's recent rally to continue, despite the probable interest rate cut from the Bank of England on Thursday, and they are also slightly long of the euro against the dollar.

Both IG Index and Capital reported that their clients were now slightly short of oil, following crude's rise on news of the death of King Fahd.

Capital Spreads said its customers were very long of silver, and also long of gold, holding onto positions that have done well since the $420 level.

As far as Thursday's UK interest rate decision is concerned, Betfair is quoting the equivalent of 9/2 against a no-change decision, and 1/5 on a quarter point reduction to 4.5%.

Global Trader gets licence

Irish financial spread betting firm Global Trader has been granted a licence to operate in Ireland and Britain by the Financial Services Authority (FSA).

The company says the licence is designed to boost confidence in spread betting firms and ensure that it is not seen as operating in "shady" markets.

Global Trader plans to ramp up its marketing activities to attract more clients in Ireland to trade contracts for difference (CFDs) and spread betting.

The company had transferred its headquarters from Dublin to London in 2004 after "protracted and unproductive" negotiations with the Irish financial regulator failed to secure a licence in Ireland. At present the Irish regulator does not oversee spread betting companies.

"Our initial focus will be towards Irish customers who have an interest in the emerging markets and who are currently unable to execute such products with the existing providers," Global Trader chief executive David Butler said.

"We can now offer private traders the same transparent pricing traditionally reserved for the institutional markets," he said.

The company, which was founded by Mr Butler in 2001, has clients in 26 countries and offices in Britain, South Africa, Canada and Thailand. .

Global Trader says it conducts more than 300,000 transactions a year worth €4 billion.

Mr Butler added: "We have lifted spreads out of the shadows and have created a new trading world for our clients that is not based on old, shady concepts but is clear, transparent and open."

The company said it wants to move spread betting away from bookmaking and geared toward private investors and small institutions.

How to cash in on the float of the renminbi

Investors who want to profit from the potential for an appreciating renminbi have several options: they could bet on the currency markets, buy British stocks that stand to benefit or invest in funds that aim to exploit the long-term trend.

Currency

You could simply buy Chinese currency and hold it in the hope that it will appreciate. You can buy renminbi in HSBC branches or online. On Friday, the bank was quoting an exchange rate of 12.99 to the pound.

Another way of speculating on currency movements is by spread betting. While the big spread-betting companies do not offer bets on the renminbi, you could always gamble on other currences that are expected to be affected by the revaluation, such as the Japanese yen or US dollar.

Many analysts expected the revaluation to usher in a period of dollar weakness. China spent £1 billion a day in May and June to maintain its dollar peg, but its appetite for US assets may now wane.

Robert Lind, an equity analyst at ABN Amro, said: "The Chinese revaluation could herald a new wave of sustained dollar weakness. The breaking of the dollar peg could signal a shift in appetite for US assets and intensify downward pressure on the dollar."

However, the dollar has so far remained relatively stable.

John Hatherly of M&G, the fund manager, said: "Investors are focusing on the fact that US interest rates are heading up, which is supporting the dollar, rather than the revaluation."

While the dollar is expected to weaken, the yen could be one of the main beneficiaries of a renminbi revaluation, according to Merrill Lynch, the investment bank. The Chinese may now buy more yen and fewer dollars to support their new currency regime.

On Friday, Cantor Index was quoting a spread of 111.77 to 111.86 yen to the dollar in September. If you think the dollar will weaken against the yen, you could sell at £10 for every point below 111.77. If the dollar subsequently fell to 111 yen, you would win £770 — £10 times 77 points. However, remember you can lose more than your original stake when spread-betting.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

Summer looks to have arrived with volumes and trading ranges severely limited in the US, Europe and the UK. FTSE Option volatility levels hit a new low in the UK as the slow steady rally continues day by day (7/7 shocks aside). The DAX having rallied some 300 points over the last three weeks is now pausing for breath trading in a tight range around the 4900 level.

Technical traders are pushing for a move above 5000 on a momentum continuation but clients remain short looking for some form of pull back as the steep upward trendline has been broken. CS quotes Rolling DAX at 4896-4899 up 12. Wall Street has done little overnight as the reporting season draws to a close with the early morning quote at 10630-34 up some 10 points.

Ryanair comes in with lovely numbers again to please the markets but the trading statement for the remainder of the year was not very bullish (as a consumer I can confirm that Air Tickets to the Ski Areas this winter remain cheap so it would appear that forward sales are not excessive). The shares will probably experience some profit taking from last nights close at $48.00.

Currency markets showed some odd moves yesterday with traders moving into the Swiss Franc from the Dollar and Euro. The Swiss Franc (CHF) is often used as a currency hedge when dealers are worried about some volatile sector of the market (political unrest etc) but aside from the death of King Fahd there was little to identify as the catalyst. USD?CHF is quoted this morning at 1.2781-1.2785.

Dollar bears had a field day yesterday as Sterling traded up to the massive historical resistence area of 1.7725-60. Clients are chopping and changing their positions on an minute by minute basis as they occilate between bulls and bears. Cable is quoted at 1.7710-13 up slightly this morning after another attempt at yesterdays highs.

Metals strengthened yesterday on weakness in the dollar with Silver reaching 730c and October Gold back up to 435.0, dealers are long and are pushing for a return to the highs of June at 447.50 . Oil, Natural Gas and Heating Oil all hit fresh highs yesterday on fears that regime change in Saudi may signal a hardening of views over oil production levels. It is expected that OPEC will signal a change to a target range of $40-$50 per barrel from the current $28.

American markets shied away from Thursdays levels on Friday as the GDP came in slightly lower than expectations and Gasoline and Oil headed up towards their highs again, company growth (and house price inflation) may influence Fed thinking on interest rate outlook and investors are worrying that the expected high in rates is getting higher. Wall Street is being called some 20 points higher this morning on little flow at 10658-62. The UK markets have very little to go on this morning and the FTSE 100 is quoted at 5282-84 almost unchange over the weekend.

HSBC's results due today should show good solid numbers of around $9.9 Billion down slightly from last time. Banking has not had a great year in 2005 but HSBC has managed to buck the trend hitting recent highs just last week. With renewed hope for growth in Europe the international banking sector could be in line for a better rating period. UK centric banks are in a different cycle and will be more heavily affected by the potential slowing of the British Economy. HSBC is quoted at 926.5-928.0 up 5 overnight as dealers look optimistic today.

Oil heads higher again this time on news of Iranian nuclear tensions. $61-$62 has been a heavy resistence level in the past and is expected to be so again. Sept Nymex is trading at 60.96-61.04 up 50c.

Currencies continue to trade in a random fashion with the US Dollar bouncing around like a rubber ball. The Euro trading range of 1.2000 to 1.2250 held last week even though there was a heavy attack to the downside lasting several days. The currency, although trading for substantial periods below 1.20 on Tuesday and Wednesday, never managed to close below it. Sterling also traded higher last week as bears were squeezed mecilssly all week. Clients continue to be short Cable and todays open at 1.7625-28 up 50 pips will not help.

If dealers had seen the yesterdays corporate results before the opening they would have been betting that the FTSE should soar through the 5300 level. Investors still seem convinced that there is bad news just around the corner. Clients continue to short the FTSE at levels above 5275 but these are fragile bears and stops are tight at 5290. CS quotes FTSE 5278-5280 this morning up some 10 points.

Wall Street put on another good performance as interest rate hike fears are being melted under the average 10% increase in revenue result during this reporting season. Todays GDP numbers, although important, are unlikely to reverse sentiment. Clients had been long of the US markets for a while but have now flattened these out. GDP is expected to come in at 3.5% and a figure around here should keep the markets happy. Wall Street is quoted at 10708-12 up 10 pips overnight.

Is this a good time to dive in? You betcha

A bookmaker's pain is usually a punter's delight and with competition increasing, spreads are as competitive as they have ever been, says James Moore.

Long term, the spread betting market is likely to consolidate with a handful of big firms dominating, just as is increasingly happening with fixed-odds bookmakers.

But in the meantime punters can make hay due to the entry into the market of a number of new players with little new to offer other than an attempt to buy business by competing on price.

Naturally, such an unsophisticated tactic usually prompts the existing players to cut their own prices to compete and that is indeed what has happened. There has never been a better time to spread bet as a result.

Take IG's daily FTSE 100 market. The spread on this is now just two points, representing fantastic value. At that level it is not far off the spread one would have to pay for dealing in the actual shares. However, profits are tax free and there is none of that troublesome 0.5pc stamp duty.

Like any spread bet the spread will move depending on how the market performs. Punters who buy before trading starts (in the expectations that the market will go up) can lock in gains by selling it at a higher level if the market performs as they hope and the spread moves higher.

If the market falls, a punter who bought the spread can limit their losses by selling it at a lower level. The reverse is true for people who initially sell. Bets struck by people who choose to let their wager run throughout the day without locking in gains (or stopping their losses), are settled based on the closing value of the FTSE 100.

The company offers a competitive spread on the daily performance of the Dow Jones Index. There are many reasons why the Dow is viewed as an anachronism - the "index" contains just 30 stocks and there are innumerable faults in the way it is constructed that make it a poor indicator for the way Wall Street is performing.

Still, it is widely quoted and IG offers a spread of just four points between the buying and the selling price. Given the level of the Dow, it is a tighter spread in percentage terms than that available on the FTSE 100.

A much more representative US index is the S&P 500 index, which is viewed as a far better indicator of the mood on the "street of dreams". The spread on this index available with Financial Spreads is 0.4 of a point between buying and selling price.

Of course, the problem with these spreads is that there has been a marked lack of volatility in stockmarket indices. That is not the case with individual shares, and Cantor Index says its clients have had a profitable time trading some individual US stocks. These include Yahoo, Apple Computers and Google where the difference between the buying and selling price on spreads bets on the closing price of these companies on September 20 is a few cents.

Financial Spreads also offers a four-point spread on the Dow. Its spread on the gold price is also worth investigating.

Can this happy situation continue? Those who would raise a glass to the bookie's pain might want to hold off on cracking open the champagne. Volumes on these value bets are such that they have remained highly profitable for the spread betting companies but this is one instance where both bookie and client can win.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

If dealers had seen the yesterdays corporate results before the opening they would have been betting that the FTSE should soar through the 5300 level. Investors still seem convinced that there is bad news just around the corner. Clients continue to short the FTSE at levels above 5275 but these are fragile bears and stops are tight at 5290. CS quotes FTSE 5278-5280 this morning up some 10 points.

Wall Street put on another good performance as interest rate hike fears are being melted under the average 10% increase in revenue result during this reporting season. Todays GDP numbers, although important, are unlikely to reverse sentiment. Clients had been long of the US markets for a while but have now flattened these out. GDP is expected to come in at 3.5% and a figure around here should keep the markets happy. Wall Street is quoted at 10708-12 up 10 pips overnight.

Lloyds release interim numbers today and although growth from the smallest of the big four is not expected to be high, investors continue to be attracted by the dividend yield which, at over 7%, makes for a difficult return to ignore.

Currencies continue to trade in the direction that causes the greatest pain to the greatest number of people. The market is short of Sterling and Euro as the recent US data would seem to suggest higher rates and thus a stronger dollar. But with so many short positions the dollar is finding that the easiest direction to move is downwards. GBP/USD is at 1.7550-1.7553 down slightly overnight and the Euro is at 1.2121-24 likewise down slightly.

Oil is racing up as technical resistance levels have beed broken and an oil refinery fire in the states causes concerns over supply. Oddly enough a major refinery fire should actually push prices lower as capacity for refining what oil that is delivered falls (whilst at the same time, of course, pushing gasoline, i.e refined, prices higher) Sept Nymex trades at 60.35-60.43 up 40 cents overnight.

The reporting season moved into a higher gear with Shell, Glaxo, Astra Zeneca, BT, CPI, Alliance Unichem etc etc announcing interim trading numbers.

As is normal the figures were a mixed bag with Rolls Royce (RR/) coming in which much better numbers on the back of increased revenue from spare parts and servicing. This form of income is far more stable than engine sales which can be highly cyclical. Having said this clients are selling this morning as, at these valuations, the shares look rich. Cost savings are difficult in an industry that relies on such highly skilled labour. CS quotes the rolling price at 331.1-331.7 up 20p.

BAT (BATS) continue to thumb their noses at Governmental disapproval of their product by showing continued sales growth combined with cost savings. Like for like sales in Europe (where advertising has now been banned) was up by 2% which might make some wonder at the eyewatering marketting budget of the past. BAT is cost saving by closing down a whole range of expensive Western European plants and this increase in margins should keep the revenue stream up to scratch. CS quotes BAT at 1086.5-1088.5.

The FTSE has rallied on the back of the results to trade at the resistance area around 5275. Clients continue to use this point as a take profit and reverse level and seem happy to build short positions on prices above 5270.

Wall Street put in a good performance yesterday to close some 50 points higher with Durable Goods numbers coming in much better than expected. Interest rate hike expectations are getting firmer and firmer by the day as fears that the slight slowdown of the first half would accelerate into the year have dissipated over the last month or so. Equity markets may start to worry about returns if the Fed are tighten further than expected. CS quotes rolling Wall Street at 10634-38 unchanged on the day.

Currencies moved in defiance of the figures yesterday as the dollar weakened when dealers would have expected a rally. Cable pushed back through 1.7400 to close at 1.7455 but clients continue to sell sterling looking for a return to the lows but heavy support has now been built up at 1.7330 over the last few weeks which is giving the short term bulls some encouragement.

Oil Inventories came in slightly weaker that estimated which caused a slight rally in oil prices. Clients are short but are picking levels above $59.50 to sell. The current price in Sept Nymex is 59.31-59.39.

A swathe of Major Companies' Interim results are hitting the markets tommorrow with Legal and General one of the most closely watched.

Legal & Generals main businesses (Pensions and Health, Life and General Insurance) have borne the brunt of not only the mistrust of the general public but also the 'blow torch' investigation techniques of the FSA.

The ongoing problem of Pension holders living for an ever increasing span is unlikely to disappear. Indeed with a concerted push to reduce smoking levels the actuarial curves may have to be adjusted even higher.

L&G are expected to announce first half profits of around £470m but the meat will be the current trading statement. Outgoing CE David Prosser will be keen to leave on an upbeat statement and the increase in Pension sales should give him this opportunity but the slowdown in housing sales is likely to impact the writing of Life and Health insurance policies (what the Lord giveth the Lord taketh away!).

The recent trend trading range has been positive with solid support at 114.0 but the upside is limited in the short term by the massive resistance from 116 to 120. Capital Spreads quotes the rolling bet at 115.6-116.1.

BP's numbers have certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons. Analysts were a massive $600 million wrong in their earnings estimates with only (?!) $4.98 B reported against expectations of $5.6. Early quotes on the FTSE seem to be taking this in their stride with the index only being called down some 5 points this morning at 5263-5265. This would be a solid performance (if achieved) as the US markets had a slight reverse last night with the Dow closing some 55 points lower at 10596 2o points above the trading range support of 10575. The US index futures have rallied slightly overnight to leave the CS quote for Wall Street at 10610-10614.

Yell has come in with better than forecast numbers with profits up 20% and CFO John Davis' trading update was also bullish saying that the Year End numbers will be in line with current expectations. Clients have been selling any rally above 440 but these results may give bears some pause for thought.

The dollar has tried to push higher this morning but the momentum appears to be with the Euro bulls as another attempt at the 1.20 support level looks to have petered out. Sterling is holding on grimly to yesterdays rally with dealers trading in both directions as the bulls match the bears. Expectations of rate cuts in the UK are being matched by a steepening of the yield curve which will put some 'interest return' support back into the currency.

Oil had a strong push to break out to the upside yesterday but Nymex September failed to bust the short term downward trend line last night at 59.30 and is now drifting back into the trend channel. A break (and close) above 59.30 would be a signal for a return to the recent highs but in the meantime clients are happy to stay short and sell into any small rallies.

Wall Street continues to grind higher as traders try to pick the top and get squeezed out. With little economic today and tommorrow markets are unlikely to break out of the recent trading ranges although any movement looks positive as the pressure continues to the up side. Wall Street quote is at 10659-63 up 10. The FTSE is being called at 5258-5260 up some 18 points from fridays close. Continued speculation on short term rate cuts are creating strong buying momentum but technical resistance at 5275 may take some strong economic data to break.

Woolworths have added to the high street gloom and have thrown last weeks strong retail sales data into doubt. Virtually every retailer outside of Tesco and Primark are showing slowing sales and the rising unemployment numbers and taxes are unlikely to prompt a turn around. Gordon Browns duplicitous manipulation of the economic cycle will do nothing for long term rates (on which most companies borrow) and merely mean that yet again he puts back any real tough decisions. The chancellors entire tenure has been one of taking the route of least resistance and the Gilt Markets can look forward to increasing issuance over the next few years.

Vodafone's upbeat trading statement on European business could be an indication the possible the EC bloc may be about to come out of its neverending malaise. Analysts, who only a few weeks ago were talking about EC rate cuts are noe speculating on hikes in 2006.

Currencies are starting the week on a quiet note with the Dollar advancing slightly from Friday's close. Support for the Euro at 1.20 looks likely to be tested again, likewise Sterling at 1.7300. Clients are short of Euro, Yen and Sterling and are looking for support to be breached. EUR/USD is quoted at 1.2051-54 and Cable at 1.7370-74.

The Commodity market continues to be dominated by Oil and Fridays bounce in the Black Stuff caught day traders out as the support levels appeared to have been broken tempting sellers into the market.

What can we say about yesterday which will help us today. Not Much.

Its not many days that you get a Chinese currency devaluation followed by a series of Bomb attacks. The main loser in the day was the dollar which suffered heavily from the effects of the Chinese downgrade and the subsequent rally in the Yen.

Wall street future shot up to 10760 (a recent high) before deciding that maybe a devaluation in the Yaun was not such a great thing for the US economy after all and slipped back to close slightly down. Today is looking very quiet with clients going long in all the indices from FTSE to Nikkei looking for the general positive feeling to continue.

The FTSE is now trading at 5223-25 up 3 overnight as traders again shrug off possible ramifications of a continued terrorist campaign. Hotel shares appear to be holding steady which is the best indication possible that investors are not worried at the prospect of a downturn in tourism. Hilton Group at 292.8-293.7 is up 1p on the day.

Currencies having gone 'Bananas' (I think is the technical term) yesterday on the chinese announcement are taking a well earned breather this morning and with little news out today traders have flattened out positions in anticipation of the next event. Cable is quoted at 1.7538-41 unchanged on yesterday and the Euro at 1.2176-79 is likewise unmoved. The one ezception is that Punters are focussing on the Yen and after it massive rally yesterday is now giving up some of it gains USD/JPY is quoted at 110.81-84 up 65.

Wall Street was in one of its more contrary moods yesterday as dealers sold out in the Pre and real time-Greenspan speech period only to rally strongly once he had sat down. This is becoming something of a tradition since his 'irrational exuberance' speech of so many years ago. Traders sit down and worry about every negative he might say and then, if he doesn't, buy the hell out of the markets.

Wall street closed at 10689 but is being called some 20 lower this morning at 10666-70. FTSE 100 is being called up 15ish points today on the back of the US rally but dealers will be mindful of yesterdays sharp pull back and we are not seeing any aggressive buying. FTSE is quoted at 5228-30.

Boots came in with it's trading statement but with same store sales only down 0.8% instead of the expected 1%. No doubt this will cause the normal spike up in price as investors look for some relief in the next set of statements (and so on .. and so on). Boots is unfortunately stuck on the high street whilst most of the increases in footfalls takes place in out of town retail parks and supermarkets. With town centres generally adopting car negative policies it will be difficult for chains based in traditional high street locations to increase the number of consumers required for an upturn in sales volumes. Mr Baker will need to come up with something other than makeovers to reverse this trend.

Sterling did just about everything yesterday on the release of the MPC minutes which virtually guaranteed a cut next month. The initial plunge of over a cent was reversed slowly and steadily thoughout the evening trading period. Shorts are being squeezed this morning and the currency is looking perky for the first time in a few weeks. It has rejected the 1.73 support level twice now and traders are looking for this to form a much stronger base now.

Leading Indicators out of the States this afternoon are expected to come in at plus 0.5% which would give further evidence of slowing but steady economic performance. (Just what Mr Greenspan wants !)

Spread betters quit FTSE for oil thrills

Spread betting company, IG, yesterday said oil had replaced the FTSE 100 as its clients' favourite market for a flutter.

A lack of volatility in Britain's stock market has made it unattractive to spread betting punters, who have turned to oil as a replacement thanks to the sharp swings in the price of a barrel of crude.

When markets move sharply they allow spread betters to make more money if they make the right call.

Chief executive Nat le Roux said it was a mark of increasing sophistication among clients that they were prepared to switch markets to seek better returns. He said: "This would have been inconceivable until quite recently."

The company, which re-joined the stock market in May at 120p a share, said pre-tax profits surged by 77pc to £14m on turnover of £62.3m, up 25pc. The shares reacted positively and finished up 1¾p at 149¾p.

However, analysts voiced concern about the company's sports betting business, which has suffered from a poor run of results. Bridgewell analyst Katrina Preston said in a note published yesterday: "The sports business suffered from a long run of results that favoured clients rather than bookmakers."

The company was hit by Arsenal's seven-nil drubbing of Everton, where many punters bought the spread on Arsenal allowing them to make substantial profits from the team's huge score, and Roma's Serie A clash with AC Milan where punters bought the spread on the number of bookings. The match was one of the most ill-tempered of the season.

Punters bearish on Dow, but still bullish on PartyGaming

Spread betting traders are going into Wednesday's vital statement from Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan with short positions in the Dow and US Treasury bonds.

Bookmakers say that most punters seem to believe that the Dow is boxed in around 10,660, but some think that the FTSE100 index in London may manage to make further gains.

IG Index said that the start of this week saw its clients going short of the Dow and long of the FTSE, banking on a continuation of the UK index's recent strong out-performance.

Since the beginning of April, the FTSE has risen by 8.5%, while the Dow has gained less than 6%, as the pound's fall against the dollar has aided UK exporters.

Finspreads said that it is seeing more of its clients moving long of the FTSE, after a period in which many have been short in the face of a steady rally. Others were opening shorts in the Dow today around 10,650.

In forex, Finspreads said that punters were buying into the pound and the euro against the dollar, hoping that Greenspan's speech to Congress at 3pm on Wednesday might mark the end of the US currency's advance.

Bulls of gold have had a hard time recently, with the yellow metal failing to hold onto its levels just after the London bombs on 7 July. Bookies said however that most longs in gold were holding on and hoping for gains to come.

IG Index said that clients remained long of PartyGaming, the Internet poker giant which floated last month.

The shares have surged from 119p on flotation into the 160s, and bookies have been unable to borrow stock to hedge client short positions - so most have only been accepting up-bets on PartyGaming.

Finspreads said that the majority of its client positions in US Treasury bonds were short, ahead of the Greenspan testimony this week.

The Fed chairman is expected to give hints on whether he will have to raise American interest rates much above the current 3.25%.

Spread-betting group yields 77% rise in pre-tax earnings

IG Group, the UK's biggest spread-betting firm, enjoyed its busiest-ever day of trading on July 7, day of the London bombings, the company confirmed yesterday.

IG, which relisted three months ago after being floated in 2000 and was then taken private by founder and Tory Party funder Stuart Wheeler, said current trading was strong as it met forecasts with a 40% rise in underlying annual profit in its year to May 31.

Nat Le Roux, chief executive, said: "Since the end of the financial year all parts of the business have performed well and our volumes have been strong."

As the London tube and bus blasts caused a massive plunge and then rebound in the FTSE-100, punters pushed about 40% more trades than usual through the IG Index business.

Le Roux said: "On days like that you do get a lot of volatility - we saw that effect magnified." By the following afternoon, trading had returned to normal, he added.

The surge in global oil prices resulted in heavier trading in the price of crude than on the FTSE-100 index in some months, a first for the firm, le Roux said.

IG's turnover rose 25% to £62.3m, yielding a 77% rise in pre-tax profits to £14m.

The group's market value has risen 25% since its return to the market only three months ago, benefiting from a rush for gaming stocks. Its value now dwarfs the £143m paid only two years ago by private equity group CVC Capital to take it private.

IG said the higher valuation reflected strong revenue growth during the group's two years as a private company, spurred in part by a thorough overhaul of its operations.

The latest improvement was driven by continued strong growth in financial spread betting, where turnover rose 23.5% on the year to £50.5m, despite subdued equity markets, and partly reflected the rapid expansion at IG's Australian division. Sports spread-betting, however, was stagnant with revenues little changed at £6.83m, partly reflecting a string of adverse results in a series of UK sporting events this year.

Le Roux said he was confident the group could sustain its momentum even when market growth tails off. He said the group was also setting up a Chinese-language sport betting website, but warned that its prospects were hard to predict.

Stability of markets fuels bets on the price of oil

IG Group, the spread betting firm founded by Conservative party benefactor Stuart Wheeler, said it had been taking more bets on oil price movements in recent months than on shifts in stock markets.

The switch to oil price speculation came after a lack of volatility in global stock markets, the company's chief executive Nat Le Roux said.

"Spread betting volumes are vulnerable to a lack of volatility in financial markets, and for much of the past year world stock indices have been relatively subdued," he added.

While global stock indices have been stilted in recent months, the price of oil has soared and dipped, providing the type of price volatility that spread betters love.

Individual shares, currencies and prices of commodities, such as oil and metals, accounted for a greater share of the group's UK spread betting business during the year to March 31 than over the previous 12 months, IG said as it issued its first full-year results since returning to the stock market in May.

Outlining its full-year results for the year to May 31, London-based IG - which was originally established to enable UK residents to speculate on the price of gold - said it made pre-tax profits of £14 million, a 77 per cent improvement on a year ago.

IG, which also caters for sports speculators and those looking to gamble on other events, such as political elections, said turnover was up by 25 per cent to £62.3m.

And Mr Le Roux added: "Current trading is strong and the group is well placed to make further progress during the coming year."

Brokers are forecasting profits of £42.1m for the current year.

In terms of customers, IG said it now had 26,102 account customers - representing a 23 per cent increase on the year before - and that more than 85 per cent of transactions were now conducted online.

When the group returned to the market it was initially valued at £393m. But its shares have proved a hit with investors and its market value has climbed to just under £500m.

About ten per cent of IG's business comes from sports betting and this year's haul of £6.8m marked a slight increase on 2004 despite being hit by a run of negative results over the year.

However, Mr Le Roux said: "In the long term it is volumes that matter and they've stayed good."

Another area of IG's business to see growth was in its binary financial betting operation, which offers fixed pay-outs on bets on stock or index price movements.

The operation, which currently does not face any competition, reported a 130 per cent rise in turnover to £5m.

IG said this year should see further progress through investment in its Australian business, the rebranding of the financial binaries business to make it easier to understand and a move into electronic exchange market making and Asian expansion.

Spread better IG Group's current trading strong

LONDON (Reuters) - The country's biggest spread-betting company, IG Group (IGG.L: Quote, Profile, Research), which relisted in April, said current trading was strong as it met forecasts with a 40 percent rise in underlying annual profit on Monday.

"Since the end of the financial year all parts of the business have performed well and our volumes have been strong," Chief Executive Nat le Roux said, adding that July 7, when four bombs exploded in London, was IG's busiest ever day.

IG allows investors to speculate on currencies, interest rates, shares and indexes. On July 7, the FTSE 100 index briefly dived more than 200 points or 4 percent.

IG reported earnings of 35.1 million pounds before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the year to the end of May. Turnover rose 25 percent to 62.3 million pounds.

Le Roux said that over the course of the year the balance of its core British spread betting business had continued to shift away from stock indices into individual shares, currencies and commodity markets. "For example, in some recent months we have seen more business in crude oil than in FTSE," he said.

IG was refloated in April at 120 pence per share in a listing that valued the company at 393 million pounds, having been taken private by its management in 2003 in a 143 million pounds deal backed by private equity firm CVC.

At 0715 GMT, IG shares were up 2.7 percent at 152 pence.

Looking ahead, le Roux said he wanted to open at least one sales office in Asia in the coming year to market foreign exchange and other products to the Chinese-speaking market.

Le Roux flagged up rapid growth in IG's Australian business where turnover rose 150 percent to 3.8 million pounds.

IG was founded in 1974 by businessman and Conservative Party backer Stuart Wheeler and first floated in London in 2000.

Arbitrage Opportunity at Spreadex

Spreadex has been offering Sept Deutsche Telekom approx 20 points above IG, Fin and Cantor's equivalent quote for a few days now. In fact Spreadex's Sept price is higher than both their own Dec 2005 price and even March 2006 price!

Maybe they know something that no one in the rest of the market knows or perhaps they have screwed up?

Either way a possible arb for anyone who is is interested....

Fortunes made in hours of bombing

Thousands of retail investors joined sharp-witted institutions in making millions of pounds from the short-lived collapse in share prices that followed the terrorist strikes in London on Thursday.

BP and Vodafone were among Britain's largest companies that took advantage of the volatile markets to improve their balance sheets.

Financial spread-betting firm City Index said more than 8000 retail investors had dived into the market on Thursday, correctly backing their hunch that share prices would quickly bounce back.

Some will find profiteering from horror distasteful. But many in the City applaud the resilience of capitalism.

The opportunity was created by automatic trading systems, used by institutional investors, that began dumping stock when shares fell sharply as news of the blasts spread through the City. At one point the FTSE 100 lost 100 points in two minutes and at its lowest was showing a 4 per cent fall.

"Despite the awful news, there were a considerable amount of people trading and making a lot of money," said City Index chief executive Clive Cooke. "We were deluged with buyers, it was absolute mayhem. In this electronic age, instead of being shell-shocked, investors got straight on to their PCs and took the opportunity to make money."

It was the busiest day of trading for over two years. The London Stock Exchange said 4.75 billion shares were traded on Thursday compared with the recent daily average of about 3.1 billion.

"We haven't had such a busy day since March 2003, just before the Iraq war," said Ian Jenkins, head of spreadbetting at Cantor Fitzgerald.

The trading firm also reported unusually heavy volumes on its fixed-income floor on Thursday morning as many institutional investors fled from equities to lower-risk assets.

Private investors were buying financial instruments that allowed them to take a leverage position either in the index itself or in leading shares. Investors had been sitting on their hands, concerned the stock market was too high with the FTSE 100 rising to about 5200 on Wednesday.

BP and Vodafone, two of Britain's largest companies, took advantage of the sudden slump in the value of their shares. BP bought in 7.4 million shares, some for as little as 601 1/2p. This was close to the intra-day low that its shares hit as the market plummeted around 10.30 on Thursday morning. On the day of the bombs, BP bought about twice as many of its own shares as its average daily purchase over the past four weeks.

Vodafone also took advantage of the weakness in its share price, spending pound stg. 74 million ($173 million) to buy in 55 million shares at prices around 135p. Only the previous day, it had bought in millions of shares at prices close to 139p.

Terrorists fail to shake spread betting punters

Spread betting punters reckon Thursday's terrorist atrocities will have little impact on the long term performance of Britain's leading stock market index.

While markets fluctuated wildly on the day of the attack, yesterday the spreads on the level of the FTSE 100 close on September 15, December 15 and January 1, 2006 had increased slightly compared with the levels at the close of trading on Wednesday.

As with any spread, those with an optimistic view buy the spread for a specified amount of money per point, say £10. They are paid if the FTSE closes above the top level of the spread. Ten points above the spread and they would receive £100. The reverse is true for those who sell the spread.

As our table shows, despite the sharp swings in the level of the FTSE on Thursday, the longer term spreads have recovered and even increased. The bombers' impact on share prices was fleeting.

IG Index's Will Armitage said: "What is remarkable is quite how resilient the FTSE has been - we have seen a 200-point recovery in the space of 24 hours and we are 70 points higher then a week ago.

"One can feel a sense of pride that we have returned to a degree of normality despite the tragic losses to London and the best efforts of some sick, depraved individuals," he added.

Cantor's David Buik said: "It is quite amazing. These spreads have barely moved from where they were on Wednesday."

Thursday was a difficult day for spread betting companies, which took some substantial losses from experienced punters, used to playing markets during periods of uncertainty.

However, Mr Buik said the sort of panic that has gripped markets during similar "intoxicating combinations of bad news and uncertainty" was not in evidence.

He said: "What is noticeable about what happened compared to, say, the situation on September 11, is that traders have got much more experienced.

''There will always be some who take substantial losses by panic selling at the wrong point out of sheer fear, but most now don't. We had one of our punters win £45,000 simply by moving in and out of the market.

"What has been happening recently is that the index has moved pretty consistently in one direction, up, and there has not been a lot of volatility. The volatility on Thursday enabled some people to close their trading positions and take profits."

Mr Armitage said: "It was an exhausting day but we are pretty much back to normal and everyone coped remarkably well."

Markets open for Las Vegas's big showdown

As the poker craze takes hold in Britain, spread betting company Cantor Index has opened its first markets on the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas.

Cantor is offering a spread of 16 to 19 for the top British or Irish finisher in the main event, scheduled to end on around July 15. With a multinational field of several thousand players, it looks like an obvious spread to sell (a winning bet would require no British or Irish player to reach the top 19).

In the last three years, the best UK and Irish finishers were Gary Jones, 17th, Stuart Wheeler, the founder of rival spread betting company IG who finished 33rd, and Julian Gardner, who came second. A similar spread is offered on the position of the top finishing female player, which sits at 31 to 34. Last year's best came 98th.

Another spread is based on the hand that wins the tournament. For this bet each hand is allocated a value between nought and 100 with the spread currently at 26.5 to 27.1. A full house, involving three of a kind and a pair in a five-card hand, has won the tournament during the last three years and is given a value of 60. Buyers of the spread need the winning hand to have a points value over 27.1 to win.

The spread has been set low because of the success of players who have qualified by winning internet tournaments. They tend to play weaker hands more aggressively.

Past Spread Betting News