Financial Spread Betting News

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

The volatility in the markets continues unabated. Although Friday's rally was very nice this makes the tenth day in twelve where the FTSE has had a 100 point or more trading range. This compares to just three in the previous six months. This type of movement is often self defeating as it tends, in the end, to drive business away from the markets as investors weary of the risks involved.

The FTSE is called some 20 points lower at 5771-73 which is merely a reaction to the general drift of the European markets yesterday. With both the UK and the US away for bank holidays the rest of the worlds markets had little interest as most central European dealers also took the opportunity of days holiday. With little information out today it will be difficult for markets to get too excited but dollar weakness has, over the past few weeks, gone hand in hand with inflation worries and this morning sees a sharp reversal in the Greenback. The Dow is called down 20 at 11265-69 and the Dax unchanged from yesterday at 5752-54.

Vodafone surprised no one with its 22 Billion loss, increased dividend and share buyback. The shares are probably going to open a few pence higher but investors must be becoming increasingly worried that the only thing that seems to send the shares higher is corporate announcements of unit sales / buybacks / dividend changes. The overall growth level is still very sluggish and now Sarin has announced a complete change of direction into landline business. With such massively entrenched business already occupying this space this may prove to be yet another sink hole for shareholders funds. Opening price 121.50-121.75. As mentioned many moons ago the destruction of share holder value in such a cash generative business is truly awe inspiring. Vodafone's poor performance verses the FTSE 100 goes on and on and on. If you also remember that Vodafone is quite a substantial part of the FTSE all on its own and that if removed would mean that the FTSE would be many 100's of points higher the underperformance becomes even more pronounced.

Currency markets have decided to kick the week off with a bang with the dollar (as mentioned) falling dramatically in early trade. Cable is now back into the 1.87's having gone straight through the 1.86's without stopping the current price of 1.8745-48 is triggering stops and it looks like today will be a Sterling/Euro/Yen Bear hunt. Our clients are net marginally long of currency versus the dollar and as dollar longs get hunted down and shot the position is getting more and more dollar negative. The Euro at 1.2835-37 is also finding few dollar sellers as is the Yen at 111.76-79. Cable resistance is at 1.8775 and we may find seller when we near this level. The Euro is also close to resistance at 1.2890 and the chartists problems over a possible long term head and shoulders formation remain. That said the long term outlook for the Euro against the dollar would appear positive if you can believe all of the Economic arguments but, of course, economic fundamentals have a habit of disappearing like summer mist.

Gold is slightly higher on dollar weakness than but not as much as would be expected. We are now struggling to move quite so aggressively as in the past few months and some of our clients are now much more even handed in their trading going short as often as long. Gold is currently at 654.1-655.1 up a couple of dollars.

Oil is also peaceful with more and more of South American resources being confiscated by politicians desperate to blame virtually anyone else for their problems and seeing oil as their savior. In the longer term this will probably mean greater output as Governments try to fleece as much as possible in as short a time as possible. But in the short term the problems of control changeover will inhibit supply. Oil at 71.24-30 is flat and not getting much interest from our clients.

IG Group chief executive steps down for mid-life break

Nat le Roux is stepping down as chief executive of spread betting company IG Group to "do something completely different".

Tim Howkins, the finance director, becomes the new chief executive.

Mr Le Roux, 49, will remain on the board as non-executive deputy chairman and do some consultancy work for IG one day a week dealing with several overseas projects.

He said: "I won't be going to any competitor or head up any company in the same sector. This is a move away from the industry as well as IG."

He is considering going back to university next year to do a PhD, possibly in psychology.

Mr Howkins, 43, joined the company in 1999 from chartered accountants Rees Pollock. He was part of the £143m management buyout of IG Group, led by Mr Le Roux and backed by private equity firm CVC Partners in September 2003. The management team then re-listed the company in a £393m flotation last year.

Mr Le Roux retains a 4.6pc stake worth £34.3m at yesterday's close that is locked in under the terms of the float.

Mr Le Roux has said he will sell some shares this July when they become partially unrestricted. The lock-in period ends fully in July 2007.

IG Index said in a pre-close update that it expected revenues to increase by at least 37pc to more than £85m for the year to May 31.

The shares slipped 3¼ to 228p.

Volatile market conditions force CMC to pull float

The £800m flotation of CMC Markets was shelved at the 11th hour last night as the online financial trading group became the latest company to pull its float due to stock market turbulence.

The company, which specialises in contracts for difference (CFDs) for retail investors, had been due to price its initial public offering last night. But speculation had been mounting that the past fortnight's market volatility, which has hammered financial stocks, would force CMC to slash the offer price or delay the float.

A number of other companies also postponed their stock market listings on the London Stock Exchange yesterday. Sigma Capital Investments, a Black Sea property group, said it was pulling its float - which was expected to raise up to €140m (£95m) - until the market stabilises.

A technology investment company backed by HBOS also postponed its debut on the London stock market and cut back the amount of money it expects to raise by about 25 per cent. Braveheart Investment Group was due to list on the Alternative Investment Market tomorrow and raise up to £20m, giving it a value of £40m. The float has been delayed until the second half of next week, and is now expected to raise up to £15m.

Global stock markets have suffered steep losses in recent days amid concerns over rising US interest rates and sliding commodity prices.

Analysts had cautioned that CMC was unlikely to achieve the expected £800m valuation. Saurabh Mukherjea from Clear Capital, an equity research firm, said: "I get the sense that increasingly fund managers are pushing for a 17 times [earnings] valuation, something around £560m-£570m. I don't expect that to be acceptable to management."

CMC, which also offers spread betting and trading in gold, oil and foreign exchange, reported an adjusted operating profit of £36.7m for the year to the end of March on turnover of £75.7m. The company, which appointed Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan Cazenove as joint bookbuilders, was looking to raise £80m in the flotation.

Peter Cruddas, CMC's executive chairman, was due to cash in 30 per cent of his holding for about £240m at the original valuation, cementing his reputation as the richest man in the City and one of the best paid British businessmen. Some analysts were concerned, however, that he would retain a large stake in the group, raising corporate governance issues. A spokesman for CMC emphasised that his intention to hold on to 60 per cent of the business showed his commitment to the company's future.

Mr Cruddas founded CMC in 1989 with a £10,000 investment and has built the company into a global player, with operations in the US, China, Australia and Germany. His father was a meat porter at Smithfield and his brother is a London cab driver.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

With all the markets, the world over, recovering some of their nerve dealers are returning to the buy side with bargain hunters trawling through the markets looking for oversold stock. Our clients having closed out most of their speculative positions have been quick to return to the fray and spent most of yesterday buying virtually anything that moved.

The FTSE this morning is called up another 30 points from yesterdays close pushing us back up through the 5700 level having been flirting with 5500 just a few days ago. As mentioned yesterday the long term bull trend is still intact and if we can maintain our nerve through the dog days of summer most analysts are calling for a resumption of the strong upward trends. That said investors are still very nervous of any poor news and we can expect extreme reactions to news flow which before would have been taken in our stride. FTSE called up 30 at 5703-05.

The Dax closed 150 points higher yesterday and there may been some profit taking this morning. Day traders are now hunting out weak short positions and there is a chance that we may get another spike higher in the indices as Bears get mauled. US markets likewise put in a good performance last night to close at the highs for the week and it now looks like the massive support at 11020 will hold for the time being. Clients who went long from this level are not getting out of positions and we are holding very small net US index risk. Dax is called at 5752-54 up 45 points and the Dow is called at 11221-25 up 10 from last nights close.

The OFT seems to have been unusually forthright about the competitive position held by BAA. This is rather odd because until the Spanish group Ferrovia expressed an interest in taking it over the OFT was nowhere to be seen. BAA has not made a UK acquisition for many years!! The outlook is not bright for the share price as if the company is broken up the various airports would have to start competing for business which would probably drive down revenue and the attraction for an outside bidder is therefore similarly substantially reduced. BAA closed at 785p yesterday down 48p but even here we are getting sellers in early orders.

The LSE is also in a bit of a hole as they find themselves in the rather awkward position of having had three swooning suitors hammering at the gates only to find that two of them fancied each other rather more and that the remaining swain was the only one she didn't fancy in the first place! With only one bidder in the market and that one willing to take its time the shares have really only one way to go. Coupled with this is the chance that the political engine has not really kicked into gear yet. There is always a chance that even the UK may finaly decide that there are some bits of the country that cannot be sold off. LSE at 1090 is also looking fragile.

Currency markets are showing little appetite today having spent most of yesterday in a tight trading range. FX dealers seem to be sitting back and letting the Equity markets have all the fun at the moment. Sterling had another few goes at holding below 1.8650 but at the death just could not find enough sellers. Unless the market manages a close below this support level all the pressure will continue on the up side. Our clients are looking rather tired out at the moment and appear undecided as to direction with buyer matching sellers. The Euro is trading between 1.2710 and 1.2890 and has retraced this range many times over the past week. We are now slap bang in the middle at 1.2788-90 and seemingly on the way down just for the time being but there is no real power behind it at the moment.

Gold after looking volatile on early trade yesterday then proceeded to have it quietest day for weeks. This morning looks little different with the market up $2 this morning but again on light volume. Gold called at 650.2-651.2.

As mentioned yesterday investors appear either deliriously bullish or depressingly bearish at the moment. The FTSE has managed trading ranges in excess of 100 points for 7 of the last 10 days. Compare this to the previous 6 months where there were only three in total.

This morning sees dealers selling again and confidence seems to be rock bottom. There is minor support on the FTSE at around 5540 and then very heavy support at 5515. The long term bullish trend line is at this point and a break and close below this point could indicate an end to the bull market. FTSE is currently at 5573-75 down and our clients are still looking to buy on moves down.

The US markets were reasonably positive overnight with the Dow and S&P making no continuation move in line with Tuesday evening's late sell off. Dow is called a little lower this morning, off 20 points at 11094-98. Markets are worrying about house prices/sales in the US at the moment and today sees the existing housing sales number at 15.00.

Sporting Bet (SBT) have come with a 52% rise in profits but have also said that they don't expect to make an enormous amount out of the World Cup which has come as a bit of a shock and the shares have drifted 4%. Current quote is at 376.1-377.4 for June expiry.

Currency markets which seemed to be having a quiet day yesterday morning woke up on the US durable goods orders which on the face of it should have sent the dollar lower but (as is often the case in markets) there appeared to be nobody left to sell and the Dollar reversed to gain over a cent. This morning has some further dollar buying in early trade but our clients are now coming in on the Buy side at levels below 1.87. Current price is 1.8690-93. The Euro has also been sold off over the past day or so but clients are similarly buying on the dips. Current price at 1.2763-65 is seeing good buying business from clients.

Gold Platinum Silver and Copper took another battering yesterday as traders who had hoped that Tuesdays rally was the beginning of another push higher were sadly disappointed. Gold ended almost $20 lower Platinum $32 lower etc. This morning sees gold up a small $2 but it has already traded a full $8 range. Which bodes for an interesting day ahead.

Oil as mentioned previously is finding it difficult to hold onto $70. If we fail again the probability of a more dramatic fall must be taken into account. Current price is 69.85-91.

After the rally comes the reckoning. Markets have now got themselves into a cycle of violent movements with each day opening with crazy movements. The FTSE was called down 30 ish on the open and then slumped another 40 in the first few seconds of trading only to bounce back to original opening level 5 minutes later and then fall to the lows again a few minutes later. The Nikkei showed this type of movement as well rally over 100 points in the last few minutes of trading this morning and the US markets have already traded an 80 point range since the close of last night.

Our clients seem happy to take part in the massive opportunities offered by these conditions but in reality analysis and discipline go out of the window and except for yesterday (which was the best day for our clients for quite some time) the experience for most has been painful.

The FTSE is quoted now at 5611-13 down 65 the Dax at 5619-21 and the Dow at 11088-92.

Kingfisher is moving higher this morning even though the numbers reported this morning were slightly weaker than expected mainly due to the poor performance of the UK arm (B&Q) elsewhere sales were strong, especially in Asia and investors are no doubt concentrating on these rather than the increasing dire British situation. The shares have weathered the recent fall out very well and although our clients are still very cautious of the stock the main players seem to be happy to hold on. Shares are up 3p this morning at 236.6-237.8 for the September contract.

Currency markets are leaving the floor today with very little interest in either direction. Even though the dollar is weak dealers are finding it difficult to push Sterling above 1.8880 and the Euro over 1.2920. Cable is currently at 1.8802-05 and the Euro at 1.2822-24. Support in the pound is at 1.8740 then 1.8700 and 1.8630 resistance is at 1.8880 then 1.8960 and 1.8900.

Gold is giving up some of yesterday's gains but dealers are still generally looking to go long. It looks like we could be in for a wild day once more as traders are pulled first one way and then the next. Latest quote for spot Gold is 667.0-668.0. Copper hit a limit high during the trading day in the US yesterday and closed over 4000 pips higher.

Oil spiked up again in late trade last night reaching over $72 but sellers have been drifting out of the woodwork since then and we are now back near to the $71 level this morning at 71.10-18.

Share spread betting on the rise

Record numbers of people are putting their money into share spread betting, according to Angus Campbell, head of sales and marketing at spread betters Finspreads.

The recent volatile stock market has resulted in an upturn in traders trying to profit through the method of low-cost gambling on stock price movement.

Last Thursday's close of market was almost the lowest this year and over the past fortnight UK shares fell more than they have in three years.

Mr Campbell states that his company, which is part of the IFX Group, has experienced soaring levels of business as a consequence.

He told Reuters: "We've been taking record numbers of bets in the last couple of weeks.

"It's not a case of people shying away. Volatility is a trader's best friend. Clients have been keen to get in and try and pick the market moves."

According to Reuters, the small stakes involved in spread betting and accessible markets are an attraction to traders.

Mr Campbell added that daily bets at Finspreads had grown to approximately 9,000, which is an increase of nearly 2,500 on last October.

In related news, IFX was the target for a takeover bid by rival spread betting group, City Index, in March.

City Index has since been considering another bid in light of a gain in IFX shares.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

Dealers seem to be in a brighter mood this morning and the FTSE is now up over 70 points but almost 100 from the lows of last night.

With Investors in a better mood we can hope for some recovery from the lows but the problems still remain with the markets. Inflation worries are not far from everyones minds and traders continue to fight shy of long term positions. Any weakness in equity markets is pounced upon and attacked.

The FTSE is called at 5588-90 with steady buying coming in. The Dax is coming in on the coat tails as well now being called at 5590-92 and the Dow is likewise getting in on the act although as with recent past the American markets are not performing quite so wildly as the Europeans (and the rest of the world). Dow at 11140-44 up 40.

Topps Tiles have come in with numbers inline with expectations with sales just on the plus side but still showing a drop in profits, the shares have made up yesterdays late afternoon fall but are still some 10p from Fridays close. Capital Spreads quotes 209.5-211.1 for June settlement.

Currency markets are remaining volatile with dealers seemingly happy to sell the dollar suddenly turning around at 8 this morning and deciding that, actually, what they really want to do is buy it! Such is the market these days.

Cable is now down on the day at 1.8821-24 back above support at 1.8760 but a long way from threatening the highs at 1.8990. Sellers appear to be in the ascendancy today but volatility is still very high and sentiment is changing in an instant. The Euro is also looking for some profit taking after yesterdays rally and clients are building up some solid shorts on the market. Euro at 1.2845-47.

Gold is doing its best to recover from the recent weakness. Rallies may be slightly less exuberant in the future as traders have been reminded that markets do indeed go down as well as up!! That said we are currently some $18 from the lows of yesterday but sellers are coming in again at the $658 level. Current price is 658.4-659.4.

Oil has bounced again as sellers failed to push us back below the $68 support. The final few minutes of last night saw some heavy buying which continued overnight. Oil, although currently plentiful, has a much more long term bull story than precious metals, but dealers will continue to be shy of forcing us back to the highs of $75. Current prices are at 70.40-48 for July settlement.

Early Call on the FTSE is for some 35 points off and falling. We have seen nothing but sellers in all things UK this morning as both the Pound and UK stocks appear to be very much out of favour. FTSE estimate in pre market pricing is 5621-23 and as mentioned our clients are continuously selling. The outlook on a macro economic level for the UK is not exactly inspiring and although the FTSE 100 stocks are mainly international in outlook the FTSE 250 and beyond look to be over stretched at this point in the cycle. With inflation possibly growling in the wings rate hiking is back on the agenda when only a few months ago we were anticipating a bit of easing.

The Dax is also called some 40 points lower with dealers again looking to sell into any strength. US markets are also called lower as the weekend appears to have brought only worries to investors who are now looking for the exits in virtually every product.

Individual stocks are being swept up in the selling as investors ignore individual situations and push out the good with the bad. Punch taverns actually came with respectable figures but stock holders are presumably of the opinion that the last half's numbers will be difficult to repeat and are offloading on the open and shares are down some 18p at 867.9-869.3 for June settlement.

As mentioned all things UK are coming in for a battering and the pound is no different with sellers pushing us below the minor 1.8750 support and straight down to below 1.8700. The strength in the Dollar has been evidenced more in the Far East with the dollar/yen moving back above 112.50 from a low at 109.00 just four trading days ago. If we close this evening above 113.25 we would be back in the old trading range but a failure at this level could show us more dollar weakness in the long term. USD/YEN is now at 112.85-88.

Commodity markets are having the biggest falls of all markets with Gold off some $20 in early trading, Copper limit down in Shanghai, likewise Silver. Early calls for Gold are 638.5-639.5 giving long term longs a bit of a head ache. Although the trend is still in favour of precious metals we are now a very long way from the highs of early last week and traders are watching hard earned profits disappear the upward trend line support levels are still some 40 dollars lower than current prices for gold.

Oil is also weak, falling well below $69 to be trading now at $68.22-28 for July Nymex. We are now very much in no mans land as over the past year this area has not been heavily traded being more of a pass through point on the way higher or lower. The $66.50 area should show good support but on the other hand $70 may be difficult to attain and hold as buyers above this level have been consistently burnt over the past few months.

Markets continue to trade nervously with sharp rallies swiftly counter attacked with just as swift falls. Trading remains very active as clients are unwilling to hold onto positions for any length of time. Last night saw the Dow fall to new lows but Dell's slightly upbeat statement after the close has given us a bit of a boost in early trade.

The FTSE is up some 25 points at 5695-97 still some 500 points from the highs of recent weeks. The 7% fall of the past week is still only in the region of a bull market correction as the long term upward trend line is still some 200 points lower at around 5500. Only a break of this support line would turn us into a possible Long term Bear scenario.

The Dax is also seeing continued buying this morning as clients look to get in on a possible bounce. At 5695-97 we are 30 up on yesterday and clients are happily sitting on some nice profits overnight. US markets, as mentioned, are well up over night with the Dow at 11172-76 up 55 points and the S&P at 1266.1-1266.5 up 7 big figures.

MFI, rumoured to be the most heavily shorted stock on the LSE, came with a trading statement this morning which although pretty awful also contained an announcement of some bid interest in the company. With sales down 16% this year and continuing losses of 118M for last year the future may not appear bright but with a potential bidder in the offering holders are breathing a little easier. The shares are called 11p higher at 120.8-121.4 for June expiry.

Currency markets had another dollar attack over the past couple of days but overnight buying has given bears a bit of a bloody nose this morning. Sterling appears to be the main loser falling 150 pips from yesterdays highs as the market trades the 1.8775 to 1.8960 range over and over again. Chartists will tell you that this is evidence of a big break out in one direction or the other, it is just that we cannot quite manage to decide which way. Inflation is peering over the ramparts again in the US and in the UK and whilst in the US they can point to continued economic strength the UK appears to be in a slightly more difficult position with a weakening economy a worsening balance of payments and rising unemployment. Cable is at 1.8805-08 down some 60 pips and looking weak.

The Euro is also struggling to make further headway as if we turn from this level dealers will be wondering if the charts are build a 'head and shoulders' formation from December 2003 / December 2004 / now (??) Shoulder / head / shoulder (??).

Gold made its, by now normal, massive trading range. Moving between 678 and 695 before closing almost unchanged on the day. Current prices at 683.8-684.8 are up slightly but being a Friday we can expect some drama sometime during the day.

Entrepreneur cleared of market abuse

Paul Davidson, the former pipe-fitter turned entrepreneur known as The Plumber, emerged triumphant from his long legal battle with the Financial Services Authority when a tribunal yesterday cleared him of market abuse.

Mr Davidson had challenged the FSA's decision to fine him £750,000 as a result of the events surrounding the flotation of a tiny private biotechnology company called Cyprotex, on Aim, London's small companies stock market, in 2002.

The flotation became controversial after a £5m spread bet was placed with City Index, the spread betting firm, on the company, in which Mr Davidson was a shareholder.

Ashley Tatham, a former director at City Index, also challenged the agency's intention to impose a £100,000 penalty as a result of the same events. He too was cleared by the Financial Services and Markets tribunal yesterday.

"We conclude that the applicants did not engage in market abuse," said the three-person tribunal, which heard evidence over 23 days earlier this year. As far as Mr Davidson is concerned, we conclude that, on the evidence before us, the authority has not discharged the burden of proving to us, to the requisite degree of probability, that Mr Davidson either created, or took part in, the scheme or arrangement to facilitate the flotation of Cyprotex," it said.

The panel was satisfied that Mr Tatham had neither created nor taken part in the scheme or arrangement "and all he did was to effect a spread bet in the normal course of his business".

The case has been an em-barrassment to the FSA. Challenges by the two men over its preliminary findings of market abuse had been due to be heard in 2004. But the tribunal had to be dissolved after one member discussed the case with a neighbour who headed the FSA's regulatory decisions committee. The matter was finally heard by the FSMT between January and March this year.

Last night the agency said only that it was "a long and complicated judgment which is being studied". The FSA has the option to appeal.

Mr Davidson, celebrating in a Cheshire pub, said it was "nice to be vindicated" and accused the agency of behaving "appallingly" throughout the four-year battle. He planned to be in contact with the FSA today over some form of compensatory settlement, claiming: "They did everything they could to ruin me."

Mr Tatham was "hugely relieved", but said the case should never have been brought. "It was a very unfair fight, and now I'm looking to rebuild my career," he said.

He added it appeared unclear legally what ex-penses, if any, might now be borne by the FSA, but estimated that the agency's own costs at millions of pounds.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

Rather a dull day yesterday after all the fireworks of Friday and Monday. The FTSE appeared undecided about where it wanted to go with an initial attempt on the down side reversed in fast activity followed by an equally unsuccessful shot to go higher before closing virtually unchanged. This morning sees dealers pulling their buying boots back on as investors ruminate the possibility that the last few days have merely been a necessary correction to a market that had accelerated too far in too short a time rather than the first winds of a possible bear market.

Early calls are for 10 higher at 5849-51 which is nothing too much to speak of but if the markets can manage a bit of stability for the rest of the week investors will start to return. If not then the mid 5000's beckon. For those of a technical bent the long term upward trend line is some way below us at the moment (around 5575) so we could fall all the way down to here and still be in a bull market!

European, US, and Far Eastern markets are all well up this morning for pretty much the same reasons as the FTSE but traders will be eyeing the fringe indices, Russia, Saudi etc which have experienced some dramatic drops, for some sign of a return to positive momentum before returning too quickly. The DAX has jumped 20 on the off to 5875-77 and the Dow and S&P are similarly higher at 11444-48 and 1294.1-1294.5 up 30 and 3.5 respectively.

Sainsbury have come in with reasonable numbers but have warned on future revenue targets due to increasing energy costs. The shares are down some 10p on the open at 336.6-337.2 which has taken the shine off recent gains.

With the dollar coming under renewed heavy selling pressure on the off sterling is once more attacking the 1.90 level. Virtually every commentator and analyst the world over has suddenly, overnight, become a dollar bear and, in truth, the fundamentals do not appear on the greenbacks side. But always beware, a 'truth universally acknowledged' may not actually be correct. That said Cable is now up 180 on the day and is at 1.8963-66 and seemingly accelerating away. The Euro is also looking hot at 1.2897-99 up 110 pips. The biggest mover, though, on percentage terms in the Yen with the Dollar falling 140 pips to 109.05-08.

Gold has gone absolutely bananas this morning with a monumental $24 rally in the first few hours of trading. This is more a reflection of dollar weakness versus far eastern currencies but is impressive all the same. With US Fed watchers beginning to worry about the effect all this weakness will have on US inflation Gold is becoming the investment of 'last resort'. Gold is now at 715.5-716.5.

Oil in the meantime is actually rather peaceful settling nicely into the $69-$70 area. Opening prices are for 50 cents up at 69.95-70.01.

CMC float set to bag £80m

James Quinn meets a man whose family will net the thick end of £260m but who will stay at CMC's helm.

Peter Cruddas is a man on a mission. One that is by no means complete. Having set up online financial trading firm CMC Markets in 1989 with just £10,000, and, despite his 52 years of age, he booms: "Are you joking?" when asked if the company's £800m float is a precursor to his stepping down at some time in the near future.

"I'll be here 20 years from now," he retorts, at which time, he says, there will be the opportunity for some succession planning.

"I don't see anything wrong with someone still working at 70, and, as long as it's enjoyable, I will be here," says Mr Cruddas, on the first day of an institutional roadshow to market the company's shares.

His obvious commitment can be seen in the fact that he - and the company's enlarged board - are keen for him to continue with his dual role of chairman and chief executive after CMC floats next Thursday.

"My being here is a positive," he says. "No one knows this company better than I, and everyone involved is reassured by my being here."

Does that stand for the institutions he is currently courting? "They're playing their cards close to their chests."

But in reality he is unlikely to come up against too much opposition on that count so long as CMC, which also owns the deal4free spread-betting firm, continues to grow at the rate it has.

The business expanded throughout the 1990s, harnessing the growth in retail investors up to and beyond the dotcom boom, with latest figures showing a profit before tax of £10m on sales of £75.7m in the year to March 2006.

The float, the planning for which began last July when bankers Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan Cazenove were brought on board, will see Mr Cruddas cash in on the best part of £260m.

He and second wife Fiona own 92.2pc of the shares before listing, with his family's wealth recently valued at £864m.

Even once CMC floats, the Cruddases will still own 60pc. "I've scaled back the 'greenshoe' [which allows CMC's banks to sell more shares than originally planned if demand is strong] from the usual 15pc to 10pc to ensure my holding still begins with a six." After first flinching at the "overly glamorous" suggestion that he flies from his Monaco home every Monday morning to CMC's City of London base, he goes on to explain about the company's aggressive expansion plans, in which he is intrinsically involved.

The plan is to open seven new offices - including in Tokyo and in Singapore - with a smattering around Europe.

Expansion can be done relatively economically by using dedicated trading rooms in London and Sydney, covering all opening hours.

Mr Cruddas explains that, through this offering, and by working with 55 corporate partners, he can offer institutional pricing to retail investors.

Handing over his mobile phone, he shows a screen offering real-time currency prices. "This is what it's all about," he says.

Of the £80m of new money being raised in the float, £25m will be spent on the next technology, on top of the $60m (£31m) spent over the past 11 years.

But it's not all about future investment. "Even if we stood still it's jam today and jam tomorrow," says Mr Cruddas, confident the business is robust enough to withstand the current market volatility.

After all, he argues, the business is based on volatility, and so as long as there are people wanting to take a punt on the markets, CMC will profit.

And, rather than just him profiting, he is handing 7pc of the company to more than 100 staff as part of a lock-in to ensure his best staff stay with him to increase the size of CMC's book.

For the man who began life as the son of an East End market porter, there is still much to do.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

It is not often that I call virtually every market correctly but yesterday was one of those days. It makes up for the other 364 days in the year !

The FTSE is opening this morning at almost unchanged as hard pressed dealers pause for breath. Yesterday's 150 point range looked at one point in the morning to be turning into a full blown rout but the buyers/short covering came in around mid-morning to stabilize things somewhat. Early trading has us up 5 at 5845-47 but selling is never far away from our clients minds and there is some continuous position lightening going on especially in FTSE 250 stocks.

The US markets were in a more optimistic frame of mind and managed a late rally to close higher on the day but this has been pushed lower this morning as the Nikkei fell another 300 plus points to close at 16150 and European market fail to follow the US lead. With the dollar falling in value there is always the underlying support that on a Global valuation US stocks look much cheaper than a month ago! The Dow is called 20 lower at 11400-04.

Currency markets can be described as two way this morning as dealers try to get a handle on whether the dollar correction has finished yet and if the market is going to continue its medium term attack on the greenback. At 1.8802-05 Cable is slightly higher on last nights close but there seems to be little impetuous to attack towards 1.90 just at the moment. We are likely to spend much of the day in the 1.8790-1.8860 range with no real information to help either way. The Euro with more solid buying behind the rally of recent weeks, is seeing slightly more interest on the buy side from our clients and the betting seems to be on a return to the 1.2975 level.

The Commodity markets joined in the fun as well, falling heavily in virtually every sector. This morning sees gold back down below $700 once more but our clients seem to be bucking the trend and trying to buy into a falling market. At 681.2-682.0 the market appears stable but the impression that sellers are just around the corner hovers over dealers minds.

Oil, as forecast yesterday, had one of it regular swan dives pushing below $70 and settling in the mid $69's. Weak longs are still in evidence and the perception is that we may drift down to the low $68's before some support is reached.

At 13.30 we have a plethora of US inflation data which will kickstart us one way or the other. In days like this the sensible idea is to be as flat as possible running into the US data and then try to get on the move created by the numbers.

Another record day at Capital Spreads as clients traded massive volumes in virtually every market.

This morning sees heavy interest in Equities as bulls and bears battle it out. Our clients appear to be undecided as to whether Friday was just a correct or an indication of more to come with buyers of individual stocks matching sellers in early pre market activity.

This morning in the indices the FTSE is looking a little fragile and the early calls of only 40 off may prove to be optimistic. FTSE called at 5870-72. Dax is also finding weakness and punters are likewise nervous with shorts and longs feeling twitchy. Dax at 5886-88 is also finding sellers on the off.

Although the Dow actually fell 200 plus points over the past few days this is actually rather an over performance versus the rest of the major markets. This morning saw initial strength as buyers looking for a bargain entered the fray but this now looks to have been short lived as the falls continue to be more dramatic than the rallies. Wall Street at 11360-64 in now 20 off from Fridays close.

The dollar looks to be attempting an early rally but this is fighting against the tide at the moment. Sterling has rallied some 9% over the past month versus the Greenback and our clients are now trying to call a top and are selling the pound. At 1.8960-63 this looks to be a reasonable level to be calling at least a short term halt. The market has had two looks at 1.9000 and has rejected it on both occasions. The Euro hit new recent highs against the dollar as well at 1.2950'ish and is likewise at least temporarily rejecting the level. Analysts are calling for the 1.34 level to be tried for this year (and to be fair most have been bullish on the Euro for quite some time). Current price is 1.2904-06 and we are seeing light selling from our day traders.

Commodities are not as solid as we might have hoped. Gold is normally the beneficiary when equity/bond/dollar markets come under pressure but Friday saw weakness (albeit minor) here as well. A short term pull back in the precious metal markets is quite likely at this point as investors may feel that cash will be king for a little while. Gold is called at 714.2-714.8 unchanged over the w/e but unlikely to hold on.

Oil is also weak (not surprisingly) and we see some very heavy selling here. With no dramatic weekend news the buyers on fears of military action in the Middle East will be looking nervously over their shoulders. Oil will probably have a go on the downside with a return to the $69 big number not to much to expect.

FTSE had a good day yesterday as takeover speculation reared its head once more and Metal Commodities went for broke. The FTSE has come in for some negative analytical comment over the past few days but investors appear rather more sanguine about the outlook. Our clients are happy to continue to buy virtually across the whole spectrum of the FTSE 350 index.

This morning sees the FTSE some 10 lower but this is just the effect of the dividend paid out by some of the bigger constituents last night but this has not deterred the bulls amongst our clientele, with continued buying being the order of the morning so far.

The Dax which has had a much better run of it than the FTSE over the past year is still looking good (although called 20 off this morning) as it continues to cling onto prices above 6100 but recent price action tends to show that when this index consolidates for any length of time this is a precursor to a bit of a drop. Our clients are marginally short the index but trading levels appear to be dying down a bit. Serious support is quite some way below current levels at around 6010. Early calls are at 6120-22. The US markets continues to grind higher, never seeming to manage a big continuous push higher as the European markets have done. The Dow is just 14% higher on the year versus some 44% for the Dax. Dow is called at 11631-35 down a couple of pips.

Not much to get our teeth into today on the corporate front with only DSG (formerly Dixons) announcing numbers. The trading statement has been up beat about prospects for the remainder of the year and the shares are likely to open maybe 8 to 10 p higher.

Sterling powers on rallying versus both the dollar and the Euro. The next target is 1.8770 but the nearest support remains the level mentioned yesterday (from where we bounced) at 1.8500 the current price of 1.8710-13 is running into sellers from our clients but they are pushing against the trend. Euro although giving up ground versus the pound is similarly strong against the dollar. At 1.2890-92 we are in clear air and there does not seem to be much resistance until 1.2900 to 1.2930. The very long term charts for the Euro indicate that the 1.29 level is very important for continued strength as consolidation at the level may indicate the building of a 'Head and Shoulders' formation.

Oil continues to bounce around in the $60 to $74 range with bulls and bears battling it out. Our clients are slightly negative but without a great deal of conviction. The tight trading range conditions are casing topping and tailing of punters as both longs and shorts get chased out of positions. Nymex is called at 70.67-73 unchanged this morning.

The good news just keeps on coming for the FTSE as commodity price rises bolster the Mining and Oil sectors and recent data suggest that the rest of the economy is not doing quite so badly as was feared. Industrial Production appears to be stirring slightly although the recent bounce in the value of sterling may water down competitively slightly. Our Clients are now very long of UK stock and seem happy to remain that way but oddly enough are starting to get short of US and Europe.

The FTSE is called some 40 points up at 6130-32 meaning that we are likely to open at over 6100 for the first time since late April. This is mainly caused by the Mining sector with Rio and BHP called higher once more on Copper and Zinc expectations. The Dax is also doing well at 6135-37 up 25 points.

Antofagsta, Anglo American, Rio and BHP all look to be reaching for new highs as funds scramble to realign their holdings. As the Mining sector continues to increase its share of the FTSE 100 so do investment funds have to adjust their holdings to take into account the extra holdings required.

Currency markets are proving slightly perverse this morning with sharp moves up and down proving difficult to call. The Dollar has had such a bad time of it recently that dealers a loath to oppose the trend and therefore the general drift towards a lower greenback continues day by day. In this kind of environment currency moves can become extreme as large trend moves can be replaced with sharp profit taking moments. Cable at 1.8611-14 is looking solid again with clients slightly long. In Sterling we had very little outright open positions over the weekend (for a change) as punters wisely decided, in the main, to leave potential weekend moves alone. There is little in the way of support or resistance around these levels with the next major target at 1.8695 but the nearest support is back down at 1.8505. The Euro is likewise solid on the open at 1.2740-42 and analysts are calling for a long term target of 1.34 and above. We have just gone through the major resistance from Feb last year at 1.2735 (and by Major I mean huge) the next level is only just above at 1.2770 formed in April last year. If we go through both these this morning we could be in for another big rally.

I cannot be bothered to talk about metals as I am just repeating myself every time... new highs, record volume, blah blah blah. Oil is slightly more interesting as we continue to trade one way then the other on Iran, Nigeria and South America. This morning sees oil up slightly at 70.39-45 but the rally of last week failed to print a new high and punters are once more pushing on the downside.

Bolivia has managed to irritate it's nearest neighbour (Brazil) by the semi nationalization of its gas production. With Mining and Forestry next on the list this populist action may find sympathetic reactions from other hard pressed economies on the continent. Corporates with heavy exposure may be looking very nervously at their holdings and dealers are quite understandably nervous of being short of Copper, Silver, Gas etc...

Today sees rate decisions from the ECB and the BOE and for the first time in a very, very, long time there is actually some nervousness about what, if anything, the central banks are going to do.

The markets expect no move today but do expect rate hikes in the future, at least from the ECB. So the question is "when does the future become today"?

Mr Trichet, the ECB Chairman, has made somewhat contradictory statements over the past few months as to policy but the overriding feeling is that with the Big Boys of the Euro-block still only tentatively growing this will mean the Political pressure will be for no move. In fact a rate hike would harm some of the 'Garlic Block' quite severely. Italy's finances make even Gordon Brown look positively scrooge like.

So how does this affect the markets. Higher rates make your currency look more attractive whilst at the same time harming your equity and bond markets as the lure of the return on purely cash holdings increases. The entire point of rate hikes is to slow the economy and thus reduce inflationary pressures. The problem is that inflation at the moment is being pushed by commodity prices which are the least likely (or, at the very best, the last) market to be affected by interest rate moves. Price pressure in the rest of euroland is muted to say the least and in many sectors is still actually negative.

The FTSE is called about 15 higher this morning at around 6023-25 on the small rally in the US after the European close and the Dax is called at 5984-86 up about 15 as well.

With the Japanese off for much of this week on 'Golden Week' holiday we have little impetuous from the Far East this morning and dealers will be watching to see if the European markets can disengage from the negative mood prevalent this morning. With the US coming towards the end of its tightening phase the odds of an out-performance over the pond when compared to the European bourses have shortened. The Dow ia called this morning at 11401-05 pretty much unchanged on the day.

Imperial Chemical come with numbers today, the expectation of narrowing margins due to higher raw material costs is in the market and clients are long of the stock going into this morning's session. The close yesterday at 370.8-371.4 on Capital Spreads Rolling bet was almost (but not quite) the high for four years. Shares are called up 5p on the open.

Currency markets have paused for breath as dealers consolidate the dollars lower values. Sterling is weaker, giving up a cent overnight to be trading at 1.8344-47. No rate move is expected but dealers are always hopeful so we can expect some volatility around 12 this morning from the BOE and 12.45 from the ECB. The advice today is 'keep your powder dry' and wait for the numbers. Euro is slightly weaker as well at 1.2602-04 clinging onto the 1.26 level (which is turning into serious support) and bound on the top by 1.2655 and 1.2670 resistance.

Oil started the day looking strong but the inventory numbers from the states showed what we all knew, that the high price has little to do with current supply levels and everything to do with fears over future flow but dealers took fright and took the price down over $2. This morning sees June Brent down another 20cents at 72.42-48. Gold is called slightly lower on dollar strength and we have now got a nasty little negative signal on the daily candlestick charts which could take us down over the next few days. At 664.4-665.0 we are still very much in positive mode and any pull back is unlikely to be more than short term.

Onwards and upwards.

The S&P and the Dow both closing well up on the day but, possibly crucially, neither managed a closing high with momentum just running out below the peaks gained over the past few weeks. The Dow is now at 11420-24 just above last nights close. The FTSE is called some 8 points up at 6088-90 as Gold and Oil continue their march to ever higher levels. And the DAX is pitching in up around 25 points at 6070-72.

Euronext has announced that it has no further interest in the LSE leaving the field open to the US invaders. The Stock has gained some 150% over the past year or so not a bad performance and with a current p/e in the 30s looks v. expensive. BUT the NASDAQ has its own p/e in the 50's so an acquisition of the LSE at this price would actually count as an earnings enhancing purchase! LSE shares fell 24p yesterday against a heavy rally in UK stocks so the Euronext release can be assumed to have been 'in the market' already. The shares are likely to drift on the open.

Matalan's latest trading statement of a profit drop of 21% was not exactly surprising and the shares have had a muted reaction with an initial call 4p lower at around 187p. Matalan has been, consistently, the most heavily shorted share by our clients but the steady grind higher since autumn last year has gradually chased out the bears. The return to the high street over the Easter break may be a forerunner to better times but the company operates in a sector increasingly encroached by the supermarkets and the future now and going forward appears very tough.

Currency markets have taken the dollars woes to heart with a vengeance. Sterling is now well above 1.84 at 1.8428-31 having hit 1.8475 this morning. Bears have been well and truly gored by the bull charge over the past three weeks and sellers are now thin on the ground, just the moment for a bit of a pull back! The Euro is likewise strong versus the dollar but was unable to keep up with the pounds move yesterday. The current rally versus the dollar in all majors is just looking a little tired and a period of consolidation is likely to set in until the Non Farm Payrol numbers on Friday. Dollar/yen sellers will want to avoid any period of inactivity as the cost of carry of short positions is very expensive (minus 4.5%). Yen at 113.15-18 is in open ground with support at 112.50 and 112.90 and resistance at 113.50/113.80.

Ho hum Gold at new high (again). Oil pushing higher. Blah blah blah... Falls are now very unlikely to happen in the short term as the major players are now focusing on the sector. Gold is now at 673.8-674.4 and analysts are calling for $740, $800 or higher. Oil, although in abundance in refineries the world over, is very much a 'risk play' as dealers worry about future supply threats. At 74.58-74.64 for the June contract we are still off the highs of 2 weeks ago but we have few clients willing to risk selling at this point.

As commodity markets continue to cause ripples all over the globe economists and central bankers try to estimate the overall impact on growth and inflation. As a mere consumer the price of fuel seems to me to have been around 90-95p a liter for quite some time now, the price of copper and Gold is of merely academic interest and Sugar (due to my wife's insistence) is an increasingly scarce commodity in my kitchen. On the other hand the inflationary increases I cannot avoid (council taxes, train fares, mortgage costs, as fixed rates expire...etc) appear to me to be of a more inflationary worry.

With some analysts now calling for a rate hike in the UK fears of a squeeze on the consumer may harm the retail sector once more and the positive effect of Oil and Mining stocks on the FTSE may not be enough to counter the growing drag on the remainder of the indices.

Clients continue to buy the FTSE 100 indices and are now very heavily long; this morning's opening is 30 points higher at 6052-54 and will come as something of a relief as at one time yesterday the US markets looked distinctly fragile. With the market behaving themselves to some extent punters are having a nice time of opposing any significant move (either up or down) and taking profits on the rebounds. The DAX is slightly higher as well at 6034-36 and is trading slightly less exuberantly than the FTSE. In the US the failure of the move to the downside yesterday has brought in the 'bottom pickers' and clients are busily closing out shorts.

CSR, the company behind Bluetooth technology, has come in with stellar numbers which has reversed the falls of recent days. The shares are now back to their highs at 1301.3-1309.6 (June settlement) and looking to move higher on a break out. CSR has had an amazing year rallying from around 320p this time last year to over 1300p now. With Nokia reaffirming the software installation within their mobile devices the future would appear bright.

We missed an exciting day yesterday in the FX markets with Sterling rallying to 1.8410 before retracing the entire move to close virtually unchanged at 1.8250. The Euro managed the same initial upward move all the way to 1.2690 but then fell to below Fridays close to end up 30 pips lower at 1.2575.

Europe, having missed out on the excitement, is now undecided about the next move and this morning has seen little activity in either direction. The odds probably still favour dollar weakness but bears will have to watch out for events such as yesterday where short covering can cause dramatic moves especially when caused by central bank comments, Mr Bernanke's early exchanges appear to be contradictory (not a good start for the New Fed Governor). The current prices in Cable at 1.7545-48 would seem to show that the fall out has been taken in its stride and dealers are likely to start buying again.

Gold and Oil (and silver copper and platinum) all continued higher yesterday as the short squeeze continues. Reports from Copper Council that there is a reasonable balance between suppliers and users is likely to fall on deaf ears as more and more investor plunge into the market. Gold is off slightly this morning at 655.4-656.0 and Oil a bit higher at 74.07-13.

City's richest man to sell third of his firm in £800m listing

Peter Cruddas, the son of a meat-market porter who founded the online trading firm CMC Markets, is to cement his reputation as the City's richest man by unveiling plans for a stock-market flotation that will value his company at more than £800m.

Cruddas, who founded CMC in 1989 with a £10,000 investment and is steadily building it into a global player, will reveal within the next two weeks that he is to sell about a third of the company to external investors. Sources close to Cruddas said an announcement had been pencilled in for this Thursday but the timing could slip slightly.

CMC specialises in trading contracts-for-difference, traditionally the domain of investment banks, among the private investment community. It also offers other services, including foreign exchange, spread betting and gold and oil trading.

The company already has operations in Australia, China, Germany and America, and Cruddas wants to take the business to more markets, including Canada and Japan. Cruddas, who has a twin brother who works as a cabbie, owns the whole of CMC apart from small stakes held by key employees.

By taking CMC onto the stock market, Cruddas will cash in on the growing demand for companies offering high-tech financial trading services. The industry has created a string of immensely wealthy executives, including Terry Smith, boss of Collins Stewart Tullett, and Michael Spencer, founder and chief executive of Icap.

Crystallising a chunk of his fortune, which is estimated at £864m by The Sunday Times Rich List, will allow Cruddas to add to his portfolio of luxury homes in Britain, France and Monaco. Last year, the twice-married father-of-four paid himself £31m, making him one of Britain's best-paid bosses.

An avid Arsenal supporter who commutes between the City and Monaco, Cruddas is also a charity donor, last year giving £1.5m to the international arm of the Duke of Edinburgh awards scheme.

The initial public offering is being co-ordinated by Deutsche Bank, with Deutsche and JP Morgan Cazenove acting as joint bookrunners.

Sources close to CMC said that decisions about the exact amount of the free float and its pricing would be made imminently.

Cruddas declined to comment on his plans. It is known he has been intending a float for some time, but has held it back until the price can be underpinned by a strong set of results. CMC is one of a number of companies that are coming to market in the next few months and they have been encouraged by the strong institutional appetite for shares.

Meanwhile, Michael Sherwood, co-head of Europe at Goldman Sachs, looks set to add to his £185m fortune. Sherwood owns a 32% stake in Sepura, which supplies high-performance handsets for the emergency services and has appointed Goldman Sachs and Rothschild to advise on a float.

The listing could raise further questions about conflicts of interests at Goldman Sachs after recent controversy involving takeover bids using the bank's money. A spokesman insisted there was no conflict of interest over Sepura.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

After a business trip to Sweden (which will definitely be my next romantic w/e destination with the missus) this is the first comment for a couple of days.

And what a day yesterday! First out of the blocks was the surprise move by the Chinese Central bank to raise rates. They have obviously not reached the level of communication accorded the other major central bankers who, these days, give a great deal of warning about possible base rate moves. The immediate effect was to send the FTSE amongst others into a tail spin as mining stocks took a pounding due to rather tenuous connection that this would significantly dent China's raw commodity demand. With most of the world long up to their eyeballs at the moment a sharp sell off is always something of a worry. Then just as everything was gearing up for a truly horrible day Mr Bernanke appeared, riding a white charger, a galloping to the rescue. In his senate appearance he suggested that the Fed was close to pausing in its tightening stance and the markets reacted correspondingly with the US surging into positive territory and helping to drag Europe to a more respectable close.

This morning is called unchanged on the off but our clients are not convinced and all we have seen in pre-market action has been selling. The early call on the FTSE is 6056-58.

Smith and Nephew hit investors with a profit warning mid morning which also added to the gloom and the shares, which have been struggling recently anyway, immediately lost 10% falling from 508p to a low at 450. This morning sees sell recommendations from analysts (yet again shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted) and they are likely to open lower again.

Mining stocks as mentioned in my bet of the day on Tuesday are looking vulnerable to a sell off and will need some further positive commodity price action to regain their composure. They are all called sharply lower this morning but in a reversal to the general selling tone clients are looking for bargains with bids appearing on our boards.

Sterling continues to push high versus the dollar (or more accurately the dollar continues to weaken against the world). With Mr Bernanke's comments bringing dollar sellers out in their hoards dollar holders are becoming hard to find. This morning is seeing little activity on the currency front as dealers either lick their wounds or search out for the next move. The Euro is the big gainer at the moment as more and more chartists' analysts soothsayers etc... find positive things to say. With the major European trading nations finally appearing to emerge from their cocoons this is a story that may run and run and with the long term target of 1.3671 (the high of 2004/5) there is room for maneuver. Initially there is a very strong resistance at 1.2590 to overcome which may hold the market back for some time. Euro at 1.2540-42 Cable at 1.8015-18 and Yen at 114.32-35.

Metals are pausing for breath at these levels with Gold looking to break above $640.00 we may have a nice little battle around this price. We are again finding some sellers at this price but clients are still heavily long of all metals.

Oil continues to drift from the highs as lack of bad news is replaced by acknowledgement that, at the moment, there is quite a lot of crude sloshing around the system. Look for further selling today with some covering towards the close as dealers flatten out for the weekend. June Nymex at 70.72-78.

City Index mulling fresh offer for spread-betting rival IFX

City Index, the spread-betting group owned by Michael Spencer, is considering a takeover offer for its rival IFX after seeing a bid rejected last month.

IFX shares have gained strongly recently, prompting authorities to request that City Index make its intentions known. City Index said yesterday it had made an approach to IFX on 23 March and "this initial approach was rejected. [We are] evaluating whether or not to make a further approach."

It is not known how much City Index offered, but any new approach would have to be well in excess of £50m to interest the board. Yesterday IFX shares put on 4p to close at 160p, valuing the business at £46m.

IFX insiders were somewhat annoyed that the takeover approach had to be disclosed, claiming the share price rise is recognition of its strength as a business, rather than bid speculation. A spokesman declined to comment on whether IFX would be interested in talking if City Index does return. "The ball is in their court. It is not a live issue and we are not in discussions now," he said.

IFX was founded in 1933 and has had a stock-market listing since 1965. One possible source of instability is the impending departure of Edmond Warner, who recently announced he would quit the company once a successor is found.

A note from the broker Panmure Gordon remarked: "The identity of the new chief executive is clearly important for future performance".

IFX has hired headhunters to find a replacement. Mr Warner has been at the helm of IFX since June 2003. The spread-betting group made profits of £3.7m in the year to March, up from £1.7m in the previous 12 months.

City Index, majority owned by Mr Spencer, a leading City figure and Conservative Party grandee, looks after customer funds of £150m.

Last week Mr Spencer's heavyweight trading house, Icap, paid £455m in cash and shares for EBS, a foreign exchange and commodities dealer. Mr Spencer is thought to be worth at least £700m.

Online Betting Group Drives Spread Betting into E.Europe

Two new European operations have been launched by WorldSpreads Group. The recent establishment of businesses in Greece and Hungary is part of a medium term strategy to introduce financial spread betting to a wider audience of market investors, with particular focus on the emerging markets of 'New Europe'.

Conor Foley, Chief Executive of the World Spreads Group, said, 'We are rolling out a series of locally authorized and regulated operations in Eastern Europe in order to offer trading opportunities to investors in those countries, as political freedoms expand, and wealth begins to trickle down more noticeably.'

The Hellenic Capital Markets Committee has approved WorldSpreads new office in the financial district of Athens, which will be headed up by Panos Natsiopoulos, an experienced market professional who formerly worked with Tulletts in London. A fully interactive Greek language web site will support this initiative.

In Hungary, WorldSpreads has signed a joint venture with NET Media Rt., operators of www.portfolio.hu, the largest financial portal in Hungary and become the first financial spread betting company to receive local regulatory approval to launch in Eastern Europe.

Capital Spreads Market Commentary

Indices markets were pretty much moribund yesterday apart from a small sell off towards the close of European markets and even that looks like being reversed in early trade this morning. The FTSE is called up 17 points at 6115-17 and the dax at 6094-96 up 15. The US managed to rally to almost unchanged by the close as dealers took heart from the sell off in commodities. Wall street is unchanged this morning at 11341-45 likewise the S&P at 1307.4-1307.8. Even though we slipped back through support in trendless activity yesterday the lack of follow through on the downside will give bulls further confidence.

Tesco has announced a slowing of growth, although this is hardly surprising as it must be difficult for even them to continue expanding quite so quickly in an area that is fundamentally (in their main areas) a very mature market.

No doubt dealers will sell off the share this morning as the performance has looked quite tired over the past five months. The initial call is for unchanged but we have sell orders on the off.

Currency markets are quite interesting at the moment with Yen, Swiss and Euro looking solid and Sterling and Dollar suffering. As mentioned yesterday the Yen broke through the support at 115.60 and clients took note and joined the ride down to the current levels at 114.59-62. Punters are still short of Yen. The Euro reached new highs for the year above 124 but has run into some selling pressure here and we have drifted back to the current price of 123.76-78. Momentum indicators are still solidly behind the Euro and the impetuous is very much to the upside (as it has been for some time now).

Oil could spike up again this morning as news from Iran is again rather inflammatory with suspension from the IAEA looming. Nymex is opening at 73.23-29 unchanged overnight. Gold came in for some profit taking knocking $12 off yesterday mornings levels down to $621 but this morning sees further buying pushing us slightly higher to 624.0-624.6. The big loser was silver selling off 120 cents down to 11.79-82 as rumours of better than expected production levels took some of the steam out of the market.

Commodity price volatility is now starting to affect the rest of the financial markets as investors try to analyze what the higher energy and raw material cost will mean for the world economy as a whole in the long run and what the latest ruminations from the IMF mean in the short. Fears that the dollar may become less important as the general central bank currency of last resort are probably misplaced as it begs the question as to which other currency they would entrust their reserves to? For all the worries over the US twin deficits these pale into insignificance when compared to the total world business transacted in the 'good old' greenback.

The S&P has failed to hold onto the 1310 level in selling over the weekend and markets look to be coming in on the weak side this morning, at 1307.3-1307.7 if we are to go higher we will have to fight our way through heavy resistance all over again and with no US numbers today consolidation is probably the best that bulls can hope for. Commodity price are higher again which may put a bit of backbone into the FTSE but the initial call is still for 20 points lower at 6111-13 as the drop of 300 points in the Nikkei (on Yen strength) is difficult to ignore. Dealers are still very short most of the world's indices with us and will be looking to take profits on any significant drop in early trade. The DAX is also called some 25 pips down at 6056-58.

The dollar as mentioned already is weak on IMF speculation and the main gainer (the Yen) is continuing to push higher in early trade. At 115.38-41 we are now 350 pips from the highs of last week and if we close down here than we will have broken through the major support at 115.65 which could indicate further weakness in the dollar down to 114.10 and 113.50. Cable is trading solidly in the range of last week at 1.7885-88 45 up from the close on Friday and the easiest route is now for a move towards the highs of last week around 1.7935.

With Gold, Copper and Silver pushing the envelope for volatility on almost a daily basis the smell of burning day trader's wafts across the markets. Clients have been consistently long of all metals but even they are starting to blink at the daily P/L moves. Although still long the extreme positions of recent days have been moderated to some extent and a bit of consolidation would probably come as some relief (not that we will get it, of course). Having said that gold is quieter this morning trading in a tight early morning range of 631.0 to 634.0 and is currently quoted slightly weaker at 601.2-631.8 down $3.

Oil is 33 cents lower on the more consolatory comments from Iran over the weekend but dealers are still very nervy looking to cover any shorts on any indication of stronger prices. We are still at pretty much all time highs at 74.76-74.82 for the June Nymex. On the plus side, for all the hand wringing about the price of oil, the fact remains that petrol and heating costs as a percent of total income are now at a lower level than at virtually any time (for most people), this means that the latest increases are unlikely to have the impact seen in previous 'oil shock' events.

As commodity prices rise ever higher so the FTSE continues to climb. Mining and Oil stocks make up much of the rally of recent days but this morning a surprising 10 point rally in the FTSE is mainly made up of Banking stock doing their best to make up some distance. Clients having been selling yesterday on the rally are continuing to do the same this morning as the index tracks towards 6100. Early call is for the FTSE at 6098-6100.

The Dax has reversed the falls of recent days with a vengeance, turning a 200 point fall into a more manageable 50 points in just 2 days. This morning sees the index up another 10 pips at just above 6000 at 6005-07 (remember the Dax was briefly higher than the FTSE earlier this month). With moderating US rate outlook the European bourses are hopeful that Euro hikes will be less aggressive than previously though especially after Mr Trichet comments of last week.

After all the fire of Tuesday the American markets traded in a much more restrained fashion as dealer pondered the possibility of 'taking out' the highs of mid march/early April. The S&P is struggling to push above 1310 which has been a common refrain over the past month or so. At 1308.2-1308.6 we are just below the level where we sat for much of yesterday.

Debenhams comes to the market with a very 'cut price' offer. Mirroring the almost permanent Sales stickers in their shop front the price has steadily dropped from a mooted £3b a month or so ago to the announced 1.9B today. Even at this price the issue could struggle to get away as the growth prospects with such an established name, although reasonable, are not likely to set the world alight.

The dollar is putting on a better performance today after three very weak sessions. The currency has fallen some 2% versus Europe since Friday. Sterling at 1.7870-73 is down 50 points (but still 50 higher than Tuesdays close) and clients are busy in two way trading with neither the bulls nor the bears showing much aggression. Yesterday the market hit exactly the same high (at 1.7934) as the last big rally in mid January and not a million miles away of the top of the previous high of October at 1.7907, consequently dealers are wary of a pull back on a top formation and will be waiting to see if recent news can push us through to higher levels.

Commodities

Yesterdays comment can just be repeated except for one surprising omission. For some reason Copper did not join in the frantic buying that was seen in Silver, Gold and Platinum. Copper, of course, is actually a manufacturing commodity and there is presumably therefore a price above which industry just will not pay (in the short term) whereas the others (although still used in manufacturing) are primarily precious metals which makes them rather more difficult to value rationally. Gold is now at 643.6-644.2 up $20 yesterday and another $5 this morning although it is difficult to see the reason today as at 6 o'clock it was actaully down $3. Frankly any sellers are extremely nervous and cover as soon as any momentum higher is seen.

Silver makes Gold look positively sloth like putting on 40% since late March (i.e. in three weeks) as against just 14% for Gold and 100% over the year (50% for gold) and is now at 14.49-14.52. All I can say is if you are long stay with it and if you want to sell wait for a definate signal before throwing your money away!!

Oil is much more worrying on the economic front and now at over $74 will begin to cause problems the world over. Inventory numbers yesterday from the states were surprisingly weak as dealers assumed that the refineries were well stocked and this caused sharp initial movements in both directions before driving higher in late trade. June Nymex is at 74.10-18 and trading quietly this morning.

Not surprisingly (although to non readers of this column, it may have come as shock) continued hawkish statements from the Fed were merely confirmation that they were in a tightening stance NOT that they were actually going to actually raise rates every time! Comments from Fed minutes last night that some members appeared unhappy with the latest rise let alone any more have caused come euphoria in equity markets.

On the news, Wall Street went into hyper drive giving the market its best day for two years and helping both the FTSE and the European markets to regain their positive momentum. The FTSE is up some 40 points on the off at 6084-86 but we are getting some heavy selling from clients taking a few profits at this level. Likewise the DAX, with clients long and wrong yesterday, this morning comes as something of a relief at 5973-75 up 70 pips.

This morning sees only ABF reporting from the majors and the numbers were less than impressive with revenue lower on Primark costs and dampening expectations due to rising energy costs (this will become a common refrain in coming months) the shares are coming in some 35p off at 807.2-809.0. The US reporting season is in full swing with heavy reporting virtually every day for the next two weeks. Motorola disappointed last night in all the euphoria but the overall profits increase is expected to be healthy. EBay this evening could be an interesting number as recent trading updates have had dramatic effects on the share price (both up and down) .

Currency markets reacted to the US rate speculation by selling off the dollar once more with Sterling again being the biggest gainer. Cable is now at 1.7830-33 some 130 pips higher on the day as the currency with the closest rate to the dollar it could be the first to go into positive relative holding cost. That said the Euro has also done very nicely as well finally breaking (and holding) above 1.23. Clients have been long of the Euro for ages until about two days ago and have suffered in the spike higher. At 1.2353-55 we are in clear air not seen since last September and the next target should be 1.2490 and then 1.2600.

The yen, whilst rally versus the dollar in line with other majors, is not doing quite so well as the cost of carry is still very harsh at almost 5% differential. At 117.13-16 we are very much mid recent range.

Ho hum . commodities ...record this, record that, inflation fears.. blah, blah, blah.

Gold at 622.6-623.2 (new high) Copper 2.9715-2.9745 (new high) Silver 13.90-93 (new high) Platinum 1121.8-1124.8 (new high) Oil 72.68-74 (new high) - you get the picture.

What is odd is that with virtually every European, Asian and US index powering up, property the world over ratcheting ever higher AND the major commodity markets hitting new records the apparent net worth of the world seems to be confounding economic fundamentals. Somewhere something has to give.

Wow, we take one day off and everything goes bananas!

Clients remain heavily long of all energy and metal commodities. And with Gold, Oil, Copper, Silver etc.. all recording new highs over the easter period it proved to be a very profitable holiday for many.

The FTSE is understandably higher on the back of Oil and Mining stock moves, although overall the increase in raw material costs is more likely to be market negative as money leaves the OECD nations in favour of the major producing ones and margins get squeezed as there is less money available for other purchases.

The FTSE opened some 25 points higher but swiftly retraced down to just 10 up where it now sits at 6044-46. The rally in the far East over hight has not (so far) helped the main European bourses which are all lower in early trade with the DAX off 25 points at 5919-21 the CAC 40 ten lower at 5092-94 and the EuroSTOXX 50 fifteen lower at 3707-09. Wall street is managing a small recovery from yesterdays sell off at 11090-94.

Party Gaming came in with better than expected figures and the shares are not surprisingly higher on the back of them at 155.1-155.7 but we are running into heavy selling from our clients as this area has proved dangerous for holders in the past.

Other big movers over the holiday period were the currency markets with The Dollar falling dramatically against all the majors particularly sterling where shorts have been well and truly 'murdered' over the past few days. Punters were hurt in the Euro yesterday as, for once, they were short. This was the first time for many weeks that I can recall clients being negative on the Euro and are probably now regretting it. Sterling at 1.7703-06 is some 200 pips higher than last week and the Euro at 1.2233-35 is 120 higher.

As mentioned Gold, Oil and Silver (amongst others) all hit new highs with dealers finding a variety of reasons for buying even at these levels. Iranian/US squaring off has not helped and the Iranians must be very pleased with the way things are going. Given that some 90% of their export economy is oil based any way of increasing revenues is 'good'. The one problem is whether they can keep the markets at this fever pitch without actually bringing down a military strike. At the moment outrageous speeches are just that and nothing more, merely posturing for the domestic market but with tension high it can take only a second of misunderstanding for things to get very much worse. Gold at 614.2-614.8 is still very strong Silver has smashed straight through $13 and is well on the way to $14 at 13.38-41 and Oil at 72.39-45 (June Nymex) is not exactly attracting many sellers at the moment. (Even if you don't think it is going any higher it is still better to sit on your hands and do nothing rather than get caught short in a massive upward spike!!).

US markets took the lead yesterday after the Europeans tried to extend their losses of Tuesday in early trading. A fall of 40 points in both the DAX and the FTSE was reversed in later trade as it became obvious that the Americans did not want to play the same game.

This morning sees markets slightly higher again with the FTSE up 12 at 6013-15 and the DAX also higher (but less convincingly) at 5907-09. With the Easter break now upon us it would be very surprising if the markets made any move at all this morning but with important US data brought forward to this afternoon (from their usual Friday slot) we may get some fireworks at 13.30. Retail sales will be keenly watched for any further weakness but expectations are for a bounce to +0.5% from -0.4% last month.

No corporate announcements today as investors are generally slightly wary of companies who give trading statements just before holiday periods.

Currency markets continue to drift in the current quiet trading environment. With Sterling bouncing slightly as shorts neutralize positions in advance of the weekend. An attempt to buy the dollar yesterday after the US data ran into a brick wall as traders took the opportunity of buying Euros and Sterling at the cheaper prices below 1.21 and 1.75 respectively.

Sterling now at 1.7545-48 is definitely showing sign of short term strength with attempts to go lower repeatedly failing at higher levels. Since the lows in November there have seen four selling waves and all have petered out before achieving prints lower than the previous attempt.

Gold is still battling away at the $600 level but has today breached the (admittedly steep) upward trend line and dealers may look to take profits before returning next week, the current price is at 593.2-593.8. No such problems for Copper which continues to hit new highs virtually every day. The latest price at 2.7685-2.7715 is another 450 pips higher than the previous high close.

Clients are selling into the oil rally as inventories announced yesterday threw up no new problems. With the US and Iran still in the 'Jaw Jaw' rather than 'War War' phase the probability is that Oil will drift on days with no news. At 68.28-36 Nymex is 30 cents down on the day and a dollar off the double top of Tuesday and Wednesday at 69.50.

The FTSE is called slightly higher this morning but our clients do not seem to be convinced as sellers dominate in early trade. The early call is for 6024-26 as the market anticipates a small bounce from yesterdays sell off.

The 6000 level is likely to act as a support (but also as a tempting target!). The recent trend has been for any weakness to be seen as a buying opportunity and with the DAX, Dow, S&P and FTSE all sharply lower clients will be on the bull side overall this morning.

GUS and Burberry out with trading statements this morning and traders will be looking for damage limitation from the high street. Weakness can be expected from GUS but poor trading statements from retailers have tended to fall on sympathetic ears over the last few years as investors try to look past the current situation to the (hopefully) better future. Early calls for GUS are for 10 lower at 1032p. Burberry are expected to be more upbeat as the widening of their global appeal continues. The product may be tarnished in the UK but abroad is a different matter and are still near all time highs of 482 early prices are for a rally to the mid 460's.

Currency markets continue to trade very quietly as the dollar gently drifts lower. With the Easter break almost upon us trading rooms across Europe empty as dealers migrate to warmer more relaxed climes. In this environment we can experience sharp moves as the desks are manned by less senior staff.

Cable looks to be the main gainer this morning as we drift above 1.75 once more, shorts are looking very nervous but we will need to break 1.7580(ish) to confirm the upward direction. The Euro having been the strongest currency of the last month or so has ground to a halt as France and Italy weigh on dealers minds. Italy appears almost bankrupt and France with a deteriorating employment situation is struggling to pass sorely needed changes.

Gold, Copper, Silver and Oil have all paused for breath. With all time highs (or twenty year highs) acting as no barrier to continued buying. Clients remain heavily long of Gold (in fact longer than at any time over this rally) and appear to be happy to pick up more on any pull back. Rolling Gold is unchanged this morning at 595.4-595.8. Oil is nervously looking at $70 (although back months are already through this level) and clients are in two minds, with Iran and the US seemingly throwing their toys out of the pram the odds are for very much higher prices but nothing in this game is ever as it seems and in most likelihood there will be behind the scenes compromises etc. The fact remains that if the US went to war over 'non existent' weapons of mass destruction in Iraq (a far more stable, politically, country at the time than Iran) what do they do about a country heading full steam for nuclear weapons technology?

The bullish sentiment remains very much in place with the markets opening higher once more this morning as Mining and Oil stocks continue to rally in the face of the inexorable rise in metals and oil. With Copper, Silver and Gold all hitting new highs almost on a daily basis. The FTSE is now up some 10 points on the open as the UK markets begin to leave the rest of the world behind. US market failed (yet again) to hold onto levels above 1310.0 in the S&P and further failures will weigh heavily on sentiment.

The Dow is at 11218-22 this morning, unchanged on the day but with the non farm payroll out this afternoon it is unlikely that we will do very much until then.

The currency markets came in for a bit of excitement yesterday as Trichet managed to say the exact opposite of everything he had said previously. It looks like the ECB is coming under heavy political pressure to hold rates for as long as possible in the face of the continued high unemployment levels in many EU countries. The Euro which had built in a rate hike of 0.25% was rudely knocked out of its bullish trend and is now some 150 pips off yesterday's highs at 1.2185-87. At 1.2185 we are still in the higher end of the EUR/USD trading range and buyers are still more in evidence than sellers even after the pounding of yesterday. Dollar Yen is finding it difficult to go anywhere at the moment with economic fundamentals favouring the Yen but 'cost of carry' making it difficult for traders to hold on to long term positions, consequently we are finding inertia is the order of the day. Whilst Cable and the Euro had a very volatile session yesterday the Yen closed almost unchanged after trading in a 30 pip range all day.

BAE's expected offloading of its Airbus unit could have wide political implications. The UK government (of both hues) have invested heavily in the Airbus project and if the production is now removed to Toulouse this would be a heavy blow. The logistics of building the huge wings in the UK and then, with great difficulty, transporting them to France has always been a cost crying out for cutting but it has always been considered too much of a hot potato to hold. Maybe not now. BAE is quoted this morning at 429.3-430.9.

All the talk at the moment is commodities, commodities, commodities..Gold hit new highs copper hit new highs and the silver chart is beginning to look like the north face of the Eiger. At some point production will expand to match the new demand but this is a very long term solution. In the short term the Bulls have the Bears very much by the balls.

Gold is quoted this morning up a tad at 596.2-596.8 silver now above $12 at 12.04-12.07 and copper at 2.6435-65.

The FTSE has finally broken through the 6030 resistance to be sitting in the clear air at around 6061-63. The US whilst having a good evening failed to set new highs in the Dow, although just for a change they actually managed to hold on to the gains rather than selling off in the last hour which has been their usual action. UK stocks continue to attract bids and rumours of bids and analysts are generally upbeat on earnings etc even at these higher valuations. The bad economic data (for UK plc) yesterday had little impact on the FTSE 100 shares as few of them depend upon manufacturing for their income but with the odds shifting once more in favour of some easing on rates equity returns looked attractive again.

Wall Street at 11238-42 is still some 100 points off the highs of mid march but the S&P managed to print and close at new 4 year highs but there was almost no follow through on the achievement and we are sitting rather uncomfortably just above the 1300 point at 1311.3-1311.7.

Vodafone is up on speculation that they are about to offload their US unit to Verizon. Vodafone shares only appear to rally when rumours of sell offs of expensively acquired units hit the wires. The general trend after these announcements is downwards and it appears that investors consider that Vodafone management is better off with cash than actually running the business. Clients are long at the moment looking for further news on Verizon. CS quotes VOD at 125.50-125.75 up 2p today.

Sterling after looking nicely strong in early trade yesterday took a pounding when the Industrial production numbers were released. Against the dollar itself having a poor day the pound closed only slightly down but versus the Euro it closed below 1.43 for the first time in over a year. Euro rates look to be on the up just as UK rates are under pressure to go down (or at least stay the same) and the long term revenue advantage to holding pounds is slowly being eroded. Sterling at 1.7549-52 is up against the Dollar but is off 60 pips at 1.4265-69 vs the Euro. The real winner over the past few days has been the Euro with the currency achieving a new all time high against the Yen at 144.68 this morning and is still trading well up at 144.57-144.60. Our clients have been consistent buyers of the Euro on any signs of weakness for some considerable time and this persistence is bearing fruit.

Gold is back up at its highs again this morning as the dollar weakness brings out the buyers. We are now within touching distance of $600 at 594.1-594.7. And Copper also hit new highs yesterday at 2.6000 having only just gone through 2.5000. It closed just below this level at 2.5945-75 but is looking to open higher again this afternoon.

To compound the misery for industry oil is on the up again as well with Nymex at 67.50-56 up 50c this morning. Oil inventories were weaker than expected which caused the rally yesterday and today sees a follow through from here as short position holders are slowly squeezed.

Markets remain undecided about the future direction with the FTSE and US markets bouncing around trying to catch the next move. Clients are currently trading the ranges waiting for any significant falls and then buying and then selling on any significant rallies. Over the past month this has proved a very profitable trading strategy but it is one normally fraught with danger that a move may become more prolonged. At the moment though dealers are making hay whilst the sun shines.

The FTSE has opened slightly higher this morning on nothing very much although we are off the highs of the day. Traders appear reluctant to buy equities when the FTSE gets above 6030 and unless something changes we are likely to run into some more persistent profit taking. The same could be said of the US markets as dealers continually buy up the indices in early trading before losing their nerve later in the day. The Dow is unchanged this morning at 11205-09 and the FTSE up 10 at 6014-16.

The dollar came in for a pounding yesterday and overnight as talk from china of reducing their dollar holdings has worried currency traders. The odd thing was that the tenure of the statement was that the Chinese government may be looking to reduce US government debt holdings in favour of corporate debt and equity stakes. Not on the face of it something that should hurt the currency too much but should have boosted the US equity market.

That said the prospect of the US government having to issue debt into a buyer vacuum is not very pleasant to contemplate. The dollar is staying weak at 1.7595-98 versus sterling and 1.2261-63 versus the Euro. In the Euros' case some 230 pips up from 2 days ago but against Sterling we are a full 350 pips off the lows on Monday morning. The Yen has also gained but only about 1.5 cents as dealers continue to worry about the rate differentials between Japan and the US.

This morning sees clients buying the dollar from the overnight lows as there appears to be no follow through in European trading to the dollar selling in the Far East.

Gold is slowly drifting from the highs of earlier in the week and the prospect of a sharp retracement is looming as new impetuous seems to be hard to come by. Silver and Copper have also ground to a halt over the past two days and profit taking appears to be the order of the day. Gold at 583.0-583.6 is off $3 this morning some $8 from the highs of Monday.

Another week and another attempt at 6000 for the FTSE. This morning sees the FTSE up some 40 points on the open as takeover frenzy continues to push UK plc. With cash revenues in British companies well in excess of their European counterparts the temptation for Mainland executives to get their hands on some of it via the easiest route (acquisition) is proving impossible to resist. The FTSE is called up 40 at 5995-97.

With the dollar breaking through resistance versus sterling, Mining companies whose income is made mainly in that currency are rallying strongly this morning. Rio +59p, Anglo +20.5p, Billiton +39.5p and Antofagasta +21p are all well up on the open. Combined with this has been the continued underswell of takeover rumours concerning the Banking sector with Northern Rock, Bradford and Bingley and the biggy Royal Bank of Scotland all sitting in the spotlight.

Added to this we are now into the new tax year and ISA demand is likely to see an initial rush of private equity demand. Currency markets, as mentioned on Friday, have taken the option expiry, the end of quarter and the end of Japanese Year as the trigger for a major move.

Sterling has finally broken the 1.7325 to 1.7335 support in impressive fashion with the sell off taking us to 1.7250. The initial target for bears will be the lows of mid March at 1.7200 and then a possible attempt at the Major support lows at 1.7075. All the currencies have suffered versus the dollar over the weekend but the Euro is still well away from support levels (the oft mentioned 1.1880-1.1900) and looks the best bet for some form of resistance to the dollar buying. The Yen is showing how difficult it is to buy a currency with virtually no interest income. As soon as it starts to go against you the combined loss and cost of carry force Bears out in very short fashion. Cable is at 1.7265-68 off 100 pips the Euro at 1.2042-44 off 70 and the Yen at 118.62-65 up 80.

Gold having hit good new highs late last week then came in for some profit taking but has now kicked off to the up side again to start the week. In fact with the dollar rising the $2.5 rally this morning to 584.2-584.8 is doubly impressive as we normally see an initial reverse reaction to dollar weakness/strength. Gold is consolidating above 580 for the time being as dealers ponder an extension to the current rally. Silver and Copper finally came in for a little profit taking with copper touching 2.5000 before selling off to 2.4605-2.4635.

Oil tried a sell off on Friday taking us down to 65.55 by 17.00 down from 67.15 but in late trade dealers took us back up to 66.60 where we remain this morning at 66.74-80.

Europe continues to out perform the US markets as American investors start to worry about virtually every thing under the sun. Interest rates, inflation, productivity, Government and Trade deficits, the price of oil, GDP, rising protectionism and the new Fed Chairman have all been sited as reasons to be shy of corporate USA just at the moment. Whilst the same conflux of data seems to have no problems in Europe especially in the UK where takeover activity is seen as a vote of confidence in the country rather than an attack on sovereign independence. Share holders in many 'strategic' European companies must be looking at offloading their holdings as, if you remove the fear and opportunity of takeovers, what is the incentive on managers to perform?

The FTSE is holding on to the levels gained yesterday at just above 6000 even though the Dow gave up a full 60 points on the day. At 6014-16 we are completely unchanged on the day and looking solid for the day. The Dow at 11157-61 is up slightly but dealers are likely to be thin on the ground as we await a slew of US data at 16.00 (Michigan Sentiment, Factory Orders, Personal Income and Chicago Purchasing Managers Index).

In the currency markets we could be in for an exciting time as we approach option expiry at 16.00 this afternoon. For the first time since 2002 we have an unusual combination of events all occurring at the same time. Because of the fact that the US moves its clocks for summer time one week later than Europe the aforementioned US figures will be released at exactly the same time as the options fixing time and today also happens to be the last day of the quarter. The last time this happened Cable moved 300 points over the next day.

Sterling is looking a bit weak this morning at 1.7405-08 down about 60 pips whilst the Euro and Yen also slightly weaker at 1.2135-37 and 117.48-50 seem to be a little better supported. Sterling looks to be on its way down this morning and dealers are getting heavily short on the move. There appears to be very little interest in buying the pound!

Gold continued to move higher yesterday as shorts were squeezed out. Our clients paid the price of continually trying to call the top of the market and steadily lost money all day long. Oddly enough now that the shorts have been hung out to dry we are now left with the Bulls and our net position shows client finally holding an overall long in the yellow metal. Silver having broken through $11 dollars a few days ago ($10 a few weeks ago and $9 a few months ago) is now have a good attempt at $12 having put on its biggest one day rally in over 20 years (58 cents). This acceleration is a very good indicator of a blowout move and clients are now looking to offload longs held for many months.

Oil having looked tired yesterday morning shrugged off its lethargy to post small gains up to the $67 level not seen for a while. This morning sees a little profit taking and we are back below this level at 66.91-97. We are seeing very little interest this morning.

The Bulls are back in charge this morning with the FTSE rallying to test the 6000 level once more whether investors have the appetite to take us through this level we will have to see. Clients are very long and are looking to hold on for any break and push on up. The FTSE is called at 5997-99 up some 40 points and we are getting very heavy two way business.

The reaction to the up side is based upon the fact that the US managed to hold onto the rally of the afternoon as dealers are very wary of coming in to a big fall overnight across the pond. Asia also came to the bugle call with the Nikkei at new highs of over 17000 for the first time since the falls of the 1990's.

The DAX and CAC are shrugging off worker unrest to record solid gains and the Dax is within touching distance of recent highs of 5976 with the current quote at 5951-53. Many clients are setting up profit targets of around the highs at 5980.

Currency markets are still shuttling backwards and forwards as dealers try to get a handle on the conflicting indications. Sterling is drifting around in the middle of the long term falling wedge formation which (oddly enough) is often an indication that there may be a dramatic shift to the upside if the support can continue to hold. The wedge currently has a top at around 1.7650 and a bottom at 1.7200. The current price of 1.7380-83 is at the lower end of recent trading ranges but there is good buying every time we get towards 1.7335 and we will need some solid data to push us through this level. The Yen has recovered from the fall out over the rate hike in the states renewing fears over the widening disparity between Japanese and North American interest rates. Although the fundamentals favour the Yen the cost of carry is still tough to bear. At 117.70-73 there is little to go on as we are well away from major levels but the 117.50 is proving to be something of a pivot point so dealers will be watching for any attempt at this level.

Gold broke through resistance at 567 yesterday afternoon and put on an extended rally to close at new 20 year highs managing to actually close above 570. Rolling Gold has managed to trade here before back in early Feb but was unable to hold on causing the biggest one day fall in recent times (7th Feb). Clients have ignored the breaking of resistance levels and have been selling all the way up which has been expensive to say the least. Current level of 575.2-575.8 is up another $2 this morning and it would appear that dealers are on a Bear hunt once more.

Oil moved sluggishly higher yesterday but the breakout from the 61.50-65.20 trading range has not seen a great deal of follow through so punters are cutting longs and are looking to set up sell bets on a break of $66.00 the current price at 66.16-22 is down 30c on the day.

Mr Bernanke's entirely predictable comments seemed to take traders by surprise last night as obviously (contrary to everything he has said since he took up Mr Greenspan's reins) hopes were raised that the after rate hike comment would be softer. The UK markets, which were called well down on the US move, chose instead to ignore it and are virtually unchanged on the day at 5937-39. The American markets are taking a more sanguine approach this morning in Europe with both the S&P and Dow up 20 pips at 1295.0-1295.4 and 11172-76 respectively.

Yesterdays fall out in the FTSE is being reversed slightly this morning as 'bottom pickers' trawl through the markets looking for value. The index was quoted at one time last night down at 5900 at the worst of the American falls and there is a certain degree of relief that this has not actually happened on the open.

Sainsbury and Woolworths have come in with trading numbers much in line with expectations although Sainsbury's increase in sales by some 5% looks very good in the current high street environment. Sainsbury is up 5p this morning at 331.6-332.2 and Woolworths up 0.5p at 34.1-34.6. Vodafone is again under pressure as regulators do them no favours at all, the joy of the disposals is now almost forgotten as the shares drift lower again (although slightly up today at 121.25-121.50).

Currency markets reacted in the same way as the equity markets in taking the Fed statement as a declaration that rates have much further to go and have bought the dollar aggressively overnight. Sterling and Euro have been the main sufferers falling to 1.7378-81 and 1.1982-84 off some 100 pips from pre rate announcement levels. The Yen took it more in its stride and is hovering below the 118 resistance at 117.85-88.

Gold rejected the resistance level at 567.0 yesterday (after trading solidly through it) as the rising dollar took the shine off. Another failed breakout attempt will have the bears looking to force the price back into the low 550's pivot point once more. Silver and Copper pretty much ignored the rising dollar and remained flat on the day at 10.86-89 and 2.4275-2.4305 whilst platinum looks to be attempting the highs of jan/feb once more rising 7.0 to 1073.5-1076.5.

Oil took no prisoners yesterday as punters attempted to sell the 65.00 resistance point only to see the market smash through and put on a further 70 cents. Our clients took some serious losses on the 'black stuff' last night and are now once again sitting out the latest move.

As the markets attempt to claw back some of yesterdays losses dealers are very much in two minds. On the one hand we have analysts saying that the returns on UK equities are still attractive but on the other clients look at the rally over the past three years and worry about pull backs. With the psychological '6000' number on the FTSE being tested at the moment and the market trading nervously it is instructive to look at what happened when we reached other 'landmark' prices such as 5500 and 5000 etc. Although these prices mean absolutely nothing in terms of yield or p/e it would appear that they were all difficult to break through and all of the larger reversals of the last two years have been at or around these numbers (4500, 5000 and 5500). So possibly it is wise to be wary.

The FTSE this morning is up 9 points at 5980-82 the Dax is likewise a little higher at 5919-21 both have gained some equanimity on the solidity of the US market which had one of its more boring evenings closing down a little at 11255-59. This was well off it's lows and there was none of the alarming weakness shown by the FTSE and Dax yesterday. Bernanke will probably move Fed rates again today so we will look to the reception that the markets give this. What dealers will focus on will be the comment that goes with it. Continued very hawkish statements may give us a nasty little nudge downwards but if there is any indication at all that the Fed is looking softer there may be a nice rally.

Dana Petroleum as commented yesterday came in with nice numbers as profits rose fivefold well exceeding analysts' forecasts. The shares have now rallied some 10% over the last two days and clients are very long and very happy.

Currency markets remain range bound with Sterling trading in a tight 50 point range versus the dollar (1.7440-1.7490) Yen likewise between 116.30-117.00 and the Euro alone looking to have some strength with dealers continuing to buy on dips. Current prices have Cable at 1.7482-85 Euro at 1.2050-52 and Yen at 116.72-75.

There is little news to favour any one currency over another at the moment but with the Fed probably raising rates again this evening (at around 20.15) we can expect some volatility late this evening.

Gold rallied strongly yesterday BUT failed (only just) to actually close above the resistance level mentioned yesterday at $567. This has caused some profit taking this morning, only a little but enough to take out our clients net long positions. So now all of our client longs and shorts match off almost exactly and they eye each other across the price of 565.6-566.2. Other metals continue to hit new highs almost every day with Copper now at 2.4285-2.4315 up another 355 pips yesterday and Silver looking to have a go at $11.00 having only gone through $10 two weeks ago.

Oil is very dull hovering around the mid to low $60's where it has been for some time now. Opening price this morning is 64.10-64.16 unchanged on yesterday which itself had one of the smallest trading ranges for a while.

With several takeover bids/potential speculation/dodgy rumors coming to an end towards the end of last week the M&A impetuous seems to have had a little of the wind taken out of its sails. The FTSE attempted another rally on the off this morning but ran into concerted profit taking which has taken a bit of a shine off the index. The FTSE is now some 16 points lower at 6016-18, still above 6000 but punters are starting to take a negative viewpoint with heavy shorts being set up in the hope of a drop back lower. But with the Nikkei looking to set new highs the overall impetuous is still on the side of the bulls.

Smaller markets are getting a mention in the papers at the moment as some Middle Eastern and Smaller European bourses take a battering and there is a (very small) worry that some of this may bleed over into the major indices.

There are no major figures due today and no big corporate announcements which will probably make today very boring.

Currency markets are all over the place with the Yen and Sterling stronger and the Swiss, Dollar and Euro weaker. There appears to be little information to explain away any move and dealers are basically two/way with us. Cable at 1.7475-78 up 40 USD/YEN at 116.78-81 down 68 and EUR/USD at 1.2040-42 unchanged.

Gold having tempted the sellers into the market on Thursday chose Friday to push for a break to the upside. By breaking trough and holding above $557 the impetuous now moves to the bulls but the charts are showing a contracting wedge with 567.0 on the top and 550.0 on the bottom. Dealers are putting orders either side of these levels but we need to see a break and close outside this range which may confirm the next major direction. Silver hit a new high at 10.78 as any bears still left are ground further into dust.

Copper is also consolidating at the recent highs, we are now into new territory for most of the metal prices and the buyer appear to be those who actually need the product for production purposes.

The US markets seem undecided about direction at the moment. The general mood is to buy as the overall drift has shown over the past few months but actual economic figures seem to exert terrible fears of the Fed raising rates ad nauseam to keep a cap on 'surging' growth. As an outside observer it would appear that US growth is currently trundling along quite nicely and in the words of Goldilock's "not too hot, not too cold". Seemingly with something like half the FTSE 100 in some form of takeover speculation the pressure on the index is permanently to the upside. This morning sees us back above the 6000 level once more as weak shorts were taken by surprise this morning on the rally and chased themselves out of positions. FTSE at 6014-16.

The main gainers have been the Oil and Mining stocks, unsurprisingly as oil rallied some $2 and Copper and Silver hit new highs.

No major corporate info this morning but we have durable goods out of the US this afternoon and we expect a bounce back from last months dreadful -10.2% (due mainly to Boeing delivery numbers) to around 1.3% this month.

The Dollar was the main beneficiary to yesterday's strong US data with the Greenback taking a big slice out of all the Majors pretty much equally. This morning sees a bit of Euro strength versus the Yen and Sterling with the Yen proving to be particularly pathetic. With interest rates at zero in Japan when markets move against the currency there is always a sort of 'double whammy' effect as dealers lose on the currency and the cost of holding it.

USD/JPY is stronger by another 36 pips this morning adding to the 100 or so yesterday at 118.21-24. Cable is weaker by a similar amount now down at 1.7325-28 whilst the Euro is bobbling along at 1.1973-75 where it has been for the last 15 hours of virtual immobility.

Commodity metal markets had an interesting day yesterday with Copper and Silver hitting new highs as Gold and Platinum did precisely nothing at all.

Whilst the pressure was on gold to move higher the rise in the dollar had a negative effect and both influences cancelled each other out. Clients are now selling gold on the change in momentum from strongly bullish to neutral but with the price STILL stuck in the low $550's we ned confirmation of the end of the current bull run to be confident of a serious pull back. Gold at 550.1-550.7 this morning Silver at 10.67-70 and Copper almost hitting 2.40 at 2.3955-2.3985.

Oil was the big gainer yesterday putting on $2 but this has merely reversed Mondays fall and we are still below the volume support area of 63.80 to 65.00. Clients are still sitting on their hands having missed out on the fall on Monday and the rally yesterday. The current price at 63.61-67 gives little support to either sellers or buyers but if we fail to break into the aforementioned range today the odds will favour a sell off once more.

The Budget came and went and I have to say that in twenty years of Budget watching this one was probably the most boring. Tax is now so restrictive that probably even Mr Brown could not bring himself to raise the burden although I see that his handouts return to this government's favorite spin of counting things twice over. His £600M for sport for instance contained £300M already allocated from the lottery and £100 of private sponsorship (which I found rather nice of him to include under his own largesse) and most of the concessions were set off over several years which presumably means that he can mention them again over the next few budgets.

Anyway with virtually nothing to get its teeth into the markets were forced to concentrate on impetuous from other markets and this was (in the main) bullish causing the FTSE to close above 6000 after several abortive attem