The 2025 Triple Crown season has already delivered significant excitement, raising the bar for the highly anticipated showdown at the Belmont Stakes. Set for Saturday, June 7, this year’s race lines up a compelling field of contenders vying for glory.
While the traditional 1 1/2-mile track at Belmont Park is temporarily unavailable due to renovations, the race moves to Saratoga Race Course and shortens to 1 1/4 miles, matching the Kentucky Derby distance.
This shift, coupled with the preceding drama of the Derby and Preakness, creates a unique landscape for those examining the potential outcomes from a betting perspective. Understanding the key players, their form, and the impact of the venue change is crucial.
Top Contenders and Their Narratives
The spotlight naturally falls on the winners of the first two Triple Crown legs, setting the stage for a potential rematch. The Kentucky Derby was held on May 3, 2025, where Sovereignty emerged the winner. Two weeks later, on May 17, 2025, Journalism won the Preakness Stakes.
These equine athletes represent different paths to the Belmont Stakes, with Sovereignty benefiting from a significant break and Journalism demonstrating grit on a quicker turnaround. Their contrasting preparations and race styles are central to evaluating their prospects in the final leg.
Sovereignty’s Strategic Rest
Kentucky Derby victor Sovereignty bypassed the Preakness, opting for a lengthy five-week rest period. This strategic decision by his connections, including owners Godolphin and trainer Bill Mott, aimed to conserve energy for the Belmont.
His recent form appears sharp, highlighted by a workout at Saratoga clocking four furlongs in 49.76 seconds.
Pedigree analysis, with his sire Into Mischief and dam Crowned, suggests versatility and stamina suitable for the 1 1/4-mile distance at Saratoga. Sovereignty is currently installed as the morning-line favorite, listed at 8-5 odds.
Bettors can find these odds and more detailed wagering options through platforms like FanDuel betting, which offers dynamic markets for the Belmont. Reputable sites like this are also a goldmine of information on the competitors for Belmont.
Journalism’s Resilient Campaign
Journalism enters the Belmont off a demanding Preakness win, contested just two weeks after finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. This runner delivered a breathtaking performance at Pimlico, rallying from behind to secure victory.
His ability to overcome adversity and perform under pressure is a significant factor. While his Curlin pedigree supports tackling the 1 1/4-mile distance, the quick five-week Triple Crown schedule raises questions about his stamina reserves. Journalism is the second choice on the odds board, available at 9-5.
Other Significant Players to Consider
Beyond the top two, several other contenders present intriguing possibilities. Horses who performed well in the Derby or have shown recent strong form are poised to challenge the favorites. These individuals offer varying profiles in terms of racing style, preparation, and pedigree, providing alternative angles for analysis.
Evaluating these competitors requires examining their specific journeys to the Belmont and their potential fit for the unique demands of the Saratoga race.
Baeza’s Derby Performance and Pedigree
Baeza, who finished third behind Sovereignty and Journalism in the Kentucky Derby, enters the Belmont well-rested after skipping the Preakness. This colt demonstrated a strong closing ability in the Derby, rallying from fifteenth place. His pedigree is noteworthy, being a half-brother to past Derby and Belmont winners, suggesting a genetic predisposition for classic distances. Sire McKinzie and dam Puca contribute lineage well-suited for the 1 1/4-mile trip. Baeza is third on the odds board at 7-2.
Rodriguez’s Return from Injury
Rodriguez, a Grade 2 winner who missed the Kentucky Derby and Preakness due to a foot bruise, is reportedly back in training. Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, this contender’s form is less certain due to his absence from the earlier classics. His prior wire-to-wire victory suggests early speed, but his ability to compete at the highest level following recovery remains to be seen. Rodriguez is listed at odds of 6-1.
The Impact of Venue and Distance
The decision to hold the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course for the second consecutive year significantly alters the race’s characteristics. The traditional distance of 1 1/2 miles, a demanding test of stamina, is reduced to 1 1/4 miles, aligning with the Kentucky Derby length.
This change could favor horses with tactical speed and proven performance at this specific distance. The unique track configuration, with its tighter turns at Saratoga also plays a role in race dynamics.
Expert Perspective and Betting Angles
Analyzing expert opinions can provide valuable insights when assessing the potential outcomes. Renowned handicappers like Demling, known for accurately predicting outcomes in Triple Crown races, often offer surprising picks.
Demling, for example, does not favor the top two choices, Sovereignty or Journalism, despite their previous Classic victories. He has a track record of success, having correctly identified the top three in a recent Kentucky Derby and the exacta in this year’s Preakness. His alternative selections suggest looking beyond the obvious favorites for value.
Other Potential Contenders and Outsiders
Several other horses are listed as possible starters, some offering longer odds and potential for upsets. Hill Road, coming off a win in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes, is considered a viable contender with a pedigree and recent form that support the Belmont distance.
Hill Road is priced at 10-1. Heart of Honor, an English-bred colt, struggled with a slow start in the Preakness but possesses stamina in his pedigree. This runner carries odds of 20-1. Crudo, a lesser-known prospect, caught attention with a recent allowance win and a victory in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard, suggesting potential for the distance.
Final Gambit, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, also remains a candidate. Sandman, third in the Preakness, is listed as a possible starter by NYRA, although his trainer reportedly plans to skip the race.
Evaluating the Landscape
For bettors focused on spread betting, the 2025 Belmont Stakes presents a complex puzzle with multiple variables to consider. The interplay between the rested favorite, the resilient Preakness winner, and a field of capable challengers, all competing at a modified distance and venue, creates opportunities. Assessing each horse’s form, pedigree, trainer strategy, and adaptability to Saratoga is essential.
Expert insights and the current odds provide a starting point, but the inherent unpredictability of horse racing, especially in a Triple Crown event with unique conditions, requires careful analysis of individual contenders.
